Good morning. We would like to welcome everyone to the Canadian Natural Resources 2022 third quarter earnings conference call and webcast. After the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, November third, 2022 at 9:00 A.M. Mountain Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Lance Casson, Manager of Investor Relations.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Canadian Natural's third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you of our forward-looking statements. It should be noted that in our reporting disclosures, everything is in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated, and we report our reserves and production before royalties. Additionally, I would suggest you review our comments on non-GAAP disclosures in our financial statements. With me this morning is Tim McKay, our President, and Mark Stainthorpe, our Chief Financial Officer. Tim will first speak to highlights on our safe, reliable operations that continue to drive long-term shareholder value. This will include an overview of activities in the quarter, including specifics on our world-class assets and operations. Mark will then provide an update on our strong financial results, including our robust financial position, free cash flow generation, and increasing shareholder returns.
To close, Tim will summarize our call prior to opening up the line for questions. With that, I'll turn it over to you, Tim.
Thank you, Lance. Good morning, everyone. Our focus on cost control, our culture of continuous improvement, combined with our disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation, continues to drive strong operational and financial results as our 2022 capital program remains unchanged at CAD 4.9 billion, excluding acquisitions. In the third quarter, we achieved record total quarterly production of approximately 1.34 million BOE per day, which included record natural gas production at approximately 2.13 Bcf per day, all which received strong realized pricing in the quarter, averaging CAD 6.57 per Mcf as a result of our diversified sales strategy.
We also had liquids production at approximately 983,700 bbl per day, reflecting strong operational performance across all our assets, including our long life, zero decline oil sands mining and upgrading assets, which was 487,553 bbl per day of SCO, comprising approximately 50% of the company's total liquids for 2022, an increase of approximately 6 billion or 120% from 2021 levels. Additionally, our 2022 capital spend forecast of approximately CAD 4.9 billion, excluding acquisitions, is an increase of approximately CAD 1.4 billion or 41% from 2021 levels as we deliver responsibly produced energy to help meet global energy demand.
As well in 2022, we have returned approximately CAD 4.9 billion to our shareholders through base dividend and special dividend, an increase of CAD 2.8 billion or 127% from 2021 levels. I will now do a brief overview of the assets, starting with natural gas. Overall, Q3 2022 natural gas was approximately 2.13 Bcf, which was a record for the company. Slight increase over Q2 2022. For North American operations, Q3 2022 natural gas production was approximately 2.12 Bcf versus the 2.09 Bcf for Q2 2022. Up primarily as a result of the company's strategic decision to invest in our drill-to-fill strategy, adding low cost, high value, liquid-rich natural gas production volumes, as well as opportunistic acquisitions.
Our Q3 2022 North American natural gas operating cost was CAD 1.13 per Mcf, which was down 2% when compared to Q2 2022 of CAD 1.15, reflecting good operational performance as our teams continue to focus on operational excellence. Q3 production was 109,255 bbl a day, comparable to Q2 2022, primarily as a result of strong drilling results and previous acquisitions. Q3 2022 operating costs were 16.68 a barrel, up 10% from Q2 operating costs, showing strong results. At Wembley, a three-well pad came on production in July at a capital efficiency of approximately CAD 6,000 per BOED. October 2022 monthly production from this pad averaged over approximately 2,000 bbl a day of liquids and 7 million cu ft of natural gas.
At Gold Creek, a 2-well pad came on production in September at a strong capital efficiency of approximately CAD 4,300 per BOED, with a strong October 2022 monthly average production of approximately 2,100 bbl a day of liquid and 16 million cu ft of natural gas. Our international assets in Q3 had oil production of 24,493 bbl a day, which is down from Q2 2022 levels of 25,907 bbl, primarily due to planned and unplanned maintenance in the North Sea and offshore Africa. Our international assets continue to generate good free cash flow and value for the company. Moving to heavy oil. Production was 68,933 bbl a day in Q3, up 4% from Q2, primarily due to strong drilling results in 2022.
Operating costs in Q3 were lower at CAD 21.30 per barrel versus our Q2 operating costs of CAD 22.86 per barrel, primarily lower due to lower natural gas fuel costs, offset by higher trucking costs. Canadian Natural has one of the largest land bases of Clearwater rights at approximately 940,000 net acres, of which the company has drilled 14 net multilateral Clearwater wells in the Smith area in Q3, bringing the total Clearwater wells drilled and on production year to date to 33 net wells. The company's total Clearwater production in September averaged approximately 12,300 bbl a day, an increase of 8,400 bbl a day from the beginning of 2022. A key component of our long life, low decline assets is our world-class Pelican Lake pool, where a leading-edge polymer flood continues to deliver significant value.
Q3 2022 production was 50,051 bbl versus Q2 average of 51,112 bbl, reflecting the low decline nature of this property. The team continues to focus on mitigating cost pressures, and we had good Q3 2022 operating costs of CAD 8.89 per barrel, an increase from our Q2 operating cost of CAD 7.99, primarily due to the higher power costs in the quarter. With our low decline, very low operating costs, Pelican Lake continues to have excellent netbacks. In our thermal in situ areas in 2022, we continue to leverage our continuous improvement culture and our expertise to deliver effective and efficient operations.
In Q3 2022, production was 243,393 bbl a day, down from Q2 production of 249,938 bbl per day, primarily as a result of planned maintenance at Jackfish in the quarter. Q3 operating costs were CAD 1,563 per barrel, down compared to Q2 operating costs of CAD 1,893 per barrel, primarily a result of lower natural gas costs, offset by higher power costs in the quarter. At Kirby, the company is progressing as budgeted with the three SAGD well development, and is targeting to begin steaming on the first pad in Q1 2023, with full ramp up to full production capacity in Q3 2023. At Primrose, the company completed drilling the two CSS pads on time and on cost. These two pads are targeted to begin steaming and come on production in Q3 of 2022.
In the company's world-class oil sands mining and upgrading assets, we had a strong Q3 2022 production, averaging 487,553 bbl of SCO, with Q3 operating costs that were strong at CAD 22.35 a barrel. Both the change in production and operating costs compared to Q2 was primarily a result of the Scotford and Horizon planned maintenance turnarounds in the second quarter. During this quarter, SCO prices were very strong, resulting in a premium pricing for SCO at $8.87 US per barrel above WTI, which added additional free cash flow.
Subsequent to Q3 2022, the company's oil sands mining and upgrading assets experienced unplanned outages at both Horizon and at the Scotford upgrader in the month of October, resulting in the Q4 targeted production range of 450,000-460,000 bbl of SCO. Both oil sands mining and upgrading assets are now up and running at full capacity. At Horizon, we will be enhancing our piping integrity and maintenance programs to support safe and reliable operations. At Horizon, the 1-4-4 reliability enhancement project is progressing as planned and targets to extend major maintenance cycles from one per year to every second year, increasing the SCO production capacity by approximately 5,000 bbl a day in 2023, increasing to approximately 14,000 bbl a day in 2025.
Now I will turn it over to Mark for a financial review.
Thanks, Tim, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter financial results were very strong, with effective and efficient operations driving adjusted funds flow of CAD 5.2 billion and adjusted net earnings from operations of CAD 3.5 billion, while our capital program for 2022 remains on track. Returns to shareholders have been significant and increasing throughout 2022, as we have returned year to date a total of approximately CAD 10 billion to shareholders through CAD 4.9 billion in dividends and CAD 5 billion through share repurchases, equaling about 71 million shares repurchased year to date up to including November second. Our dividend is growing and sustainable and is supported by our long life, low decline assets, which deliver significant and sustainable free cash flow.
Subsequent to quarter end, the Board of Directors has approved a 13% increase to our quarterly dividend to CAD 0.85 per common share from CAD 0.75 per common share. This represents the second dividend increase in 2022 and demonstrates the confidence that the Board has in the sustainability of our business model, the strength of our balance sheet, and the nature of our diverse, long life, low decline asset base. This continues the company's leading track record now with 23 consecutive years of dividend increases with a significant compound annual growth rate of 21% over that period of time. When compared to the beginning of 2021, our dividend has doubled to the current rate of CAD 3.40 per share annually and has been sustainable through all cycles.
This, of course, is in addition to the special dividend of CAD 1.50 per share we paid in Q3. Our strong financial position continues to get stronger. Debt to EBITDA is at 0.5x at Q3, with debt targeted to decline further throughout the year. As part of our financial strength, we continue to maintain strong liquidity, including revolving bank facilities, cash, and short-term investments. Liquidity at the end of Q3 was approximately CAD 6.5 billion. Our disciplined approach to capital allocation maximizes shareholder value, and our free cash flow allocation policy is unique and balanced, providing significant returns to shareholders and a strengthening balance sheet, all while continuing to grow our business. With that, I'll turn it back to you, Tim.
Thank you, Mark. Canadian Natural's advantage is our ability to effectively allocate cash flow to our four pillars. We have a well-balanced, diverse, large asset base, which a significant portion is long life, low decline assets, where it requires less maintenance capital to maintain volumes. We continue to allocate cash flow to our four pillars in a disciplined manner to maximize value for our shareholders, which is all driven by effective capital allocation, effective and efficient operations, and by our teams who deliver top-tier results. We have a robust, sustainable free cash flow, and through our free cash flow allocation policy, returns to shareholders are significant. Our dividend will increase by 13%, marking 2023 as our 23rd year of consecutive increases and has a CAGR of approximately 21% over that time.
Year to date, Canadian Natural has returned approximately CAD 10 billion to shareholders through approximately CAD 4.9 billion in dividends and CAD 5.1 billion in share repurchases. In summary, we'll continue to focus on safe, reliable operations and enhancing our top-tier operations, and we will continue to drive our environmental performance. We are in a strong position, and being nimble enhances our capacity to create value for our shareholders. We will continue to apply that same drive to ESG, environmental, social, and governance, a significant factor in our long-term sustainability as we move forward to lower our carbon emissions across the asset base and our journey to achieve our goal of net zero GHG emissions in the oil sands by 2050.
Canadian Natural is delivering top-tier free cash flow generation, which is unique, sustainable, and robust, and clearly demonstrates our ability to both economically grow the business, deliver returns to shareholders by balancing our four pillars. With that, I will now open the call to questions.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request, and your questions will be pulled in the order they are received. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Greg Pardy with RBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the rundown, guys. Tim, I was wondering, could we just dig a little bit into the two outages, and then good to hear that both plants are back up and running and so on. Was there anything unique or specific in terms of like, it's pretty odd, right, for you guys to have two issues like this in a quarter?
Yeah. You know, the first one, which was probably, you know, the major portion of it was at Horizon. What it was is a drain line off a coker charge pump, basically had some corrosion, erosion issues. You know, while, you know, we change out these pumps, periodically, it wasn't identified that this was a risk. It caused a little bit of an outage. Obviously, you know, in our PM program, we're gonna be doing a little more digging into when we change these pumps out to make sure the integrity of these drain lines are, you know, pristine so that we can deliver safe and reliable operations. That was really the big piece there, with Horizon.
With the Scotford piece, obviously, you know, we don't operate that facility. Again, it was a corrosion on a water line that they successfully managed to put a device around it to stop the leaking. Again, you know, the learnings from these, you know, obviously are, you know, you can apply them across, not only at Horizon, but in Scotford. You know, yeah, it is very unique for us to have these kind of outages, but at the same time, one thing we do very well is learn from these opportunities and start delivering even better. It was quite rare and quite unique.
Okay. Understood. No, thanks for that. The second question is on Pathways. What is, you know, what does the runway timeline look like in terms of, you know, increasing spending on this? Obviously, there's credits and there may be additional incentives to come. Would spending in earnest and installation of hardware and so forth, is that really in the 2025 through 2030 corridor in terms of how we should think about it?
Well, the spending actually starts this year. There's a lot of environmental work. Obviously we'd like to submit the regulatory pieces as soon as possible, hopefully here in 2023. Then with that, you would look to order pipe for the trunk line. There's a lot of work being done by approximately 200 different individuals between all the companies to expedite the project. Obviously, you know, with only getting it a month ago today, there's a lot of work being done. As we start to put together the plan, we'll start to signal that out into our plan. It really is that there's a lot of work happening right now.
Obviously, we're trying to do it as quickly and as effectively as we can.
Okay. Thanks very much, Tim.
Thank you, Greg.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Dennis Fong with CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. The first one's just on the solvent project that you have in your thermal in situ assets. The 50% or 40%-45%, depending on what timeline, I guess, reduction in GHG emission intensity is quite impressive. I was just curious as to what maybe some of the milestones or benchmarks you might have to further roll out the solvent program to other areas of Primrose, especially just given kind of some of the initial success that you're seeing there.
Yeah. At Primrose, it's really just time. Everything is on track. We believe it's working very well. Probably by the fall of next year would be when we believe that we'll have enough information to say we can go more to a commercial scale. That one actually is looking very positive, but it's early in that. Then as well, if you recall, at Kirby, we're going to a commercial scale pad at Kirby North here in the near future. That there's no showstoppers that we can see today, but it's obviously just making sure that we understand it, and then as we put them into a commercial scale operation that it continues to meet what we expect.
Great. Just as a quick follow-up to that, are some of the build-outs for the deployment at a commercial scale already incorporated in some of your either sustaining or strategic capital, or would that be potentially incremental versus what we have for this year and next?
The Kirby North is in our plan today. Obviously, if the Primrose 1 works very well, then we'd look to modify our plan in the future. Obviously it isn't in our capital next year because we don't have the results of the pilot.
Great. If you wouldn't mind, just a quick question on the Clearwater. You've seen frankly, very strong ramp-up of production there. I was just curious as to how we should be thinking about the production and infrastructure, as well as the processing capabilities that you have within the region. Obviously, being able to leverage off of Pelican is helpful. Just if you wouldn't mind providing a little bit more color on that side. Thanks.
Yeah. There's really no showstoppers. Obviously, Pelican, we have ample capacity to handle the production, and the gas handling is being directed to our Cold Lake gas plant, which has been in existence for many years. There is no showstoppers. To me, it's more about just, you know, following through with our development plans and delivering the production growth in the Clearwater.
Great. Thanks.
Yeah. Thank you, Dennis.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Menno Hulshof with TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you and good morning, everyone. Maybe I'll start with a follow-up to Dennis Fong's Clearwater question. Would you be in a position to walk us through some of the details on well design, cost, and IP rates based on the 33 wells you've drilled to date? More generally, how is that play currently competing for capital?
It competes very well on a capital basis. The wells generally are roughly in the range of about 275-300 bbl a day. The drilling costs are very good in the sense that because it's a very tight multilateral low area, you're able to control your costs and learn from as you drill the wells moving forward. You know, from an economic point of view, it competes very well. To me, it's just about managing the business in the area so that you don't start to escalate the cost.
Obviously, you know, if you look back in time when we had heavy oil and a large heavy oil project, you basically started to escalate the cost pieces quite rapidly. To me, it's just more, you know, pace of development is important to make sure that we don't accelerate the cost piece. You know, there is, you know, they're actually doing quite well in terms of cost. On a BOD basis, you know, you're probably looking in that, you know, CAD 2,500, maybe CAD 2,000 a BOD. You know, from a competitive point of view, it competes extremely well across our base.
Thanks for the detail, Tim. Just moving on to the Horizon Reliability Enhancement project. You know, the goal there is, you know, as you talked about, is to move that major turnaround interval from 1 to 2 years. It looks like you're getting at least some of the benefit of that next year since you're guiding to-
A 5,000 barrel per day capacity bump on synthetic, but maybe you can confirm whether that's correct and how Horizon's turnarounds are going to get staged from here on in. Then the final piece, a lot of questions and their apologies, but the final piece is whether or not the plan is to get the AOSP on that every second year track as well.
Okay. The first question related to Horizon. What is actually happening at Horizon is some of the equipment we installed this last year during the turnaround. That gives us a little bit of a bump in terms of reliability and capacity into next year. What happens is when we do the second turnaround here at Horizon in 2023, additional equipment gets installed and then basically commissioned and everything else there next year. It's just doing it in a methodical way so that we see these increments happen. Obviously, the reason why you see it in 2025, because that is when the year that you actually would not do that turnaround. It's just basically as we install the equipment, certain pieces are commissioned, and we get that benefit over time.
As far as AOSP. AOSP, in terms of the upgrader there, what they do is similar but different. What they do is they have two different pieces of equipment. They take one down one year and then the second piece the next year. I believe the third year they have a full big outage. You know, we don't operate it, but historically that's what we've kind of seen, is that they do certain pieces every second year, followed by a bigger turnaround outage.
Thanks, Tim. I'll turn it back.
Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking the time. This is Nicolette Slusser on for Neil Mehta. Just first on CapEx, is there any sort of additional commentary you can provide around next year's spend as we think about the higher cost environment and with incremental production growth? If we should be thinking about any upward revisions to maintenance capital?
Yeah. You know, for 2023, we're still going through our budgeting process. It's a little early there. To your point, we are seeing, you know, still cost pressures, productivity pressures. We're walking through that today. You know, I don't see any big showstopper. I just think that, you know, as we get busier into next year and companies start to, you know, have a little more activity, there's pressures on productivity and pressures on cost. A little early to say, but I don't see any, you know, major differences from this year to next year, just those two items.
Okay, thank you for that. On the gas side, understand close to 40%, I think, is exported to markets outside of AECO. As you ramp gas volumes in the 2023 and 2025 timeframe, how should we be thinking about the marketing side relative to the current sales mix?
Yeah, you know, our marketing team obviously you know we have longer term plans of what we can do in terms of the natural gas market. I would model it very similar to that going forward. Obviously, you know, we are looking ahead and I think you see it in our gas pricing that we are looking ahead in terms of whether it's outages, whether it's export capacity that's needed. We're always looking ahead for opportunities to diversify our sales portfolio. I would you know potentially look at it along the same lines of what we have today, which is roughly 37%.
Yeah, we're always looking ahead, and we're always diversifying, and we're always making sure that we have a strategy for our natural gas.
Great. Thanks so much.
Yep.
Thank you. Your next question comes from John Royall with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Do you have any thoughts at this point on when you would expect to hit your CAD 8 billion net debt floor? I think you did kind of mathematically push it out this quarter just with the payment of the special dividend. How do you think about that decision between doing further incremental returns like you did with the special versus kind of working your way down towards that floor level?
Hey, John, it's Mark here. Thanks for the question. Yeah, you know, when you think about the capital allocation, it's really a function of being balanced. I think you've seen that with significant debt repayment, of course, dividends, increasing on a base dividend, as well as the special you mentioned. Of course, we have our significant share buyback program ongoing. It's really more of a balanced approach on how we do that. You're right, you push out the debt balance. Now when we were looking before it was kind of Q4, Q1, but now of course, with the special in Q3, that'll push out into later next year. It really depends, of course, on your price forecasting.
There's, you know, significant sensitivity to some of those items, so it really depends on what you're thinking on price forecast.
Okay, thank you. Just another one on gas. As such a large producer, maybe you can speak to your view on the fundamentals in Canadian gas and prices going into 4Q and next year. Just any outlook you can share there.
Well, obviously what we've seen is, you know, some of the export capacity pieces have taken longer to get into service. To me, you know, there's a lot of activity on the natural gas side. I think the results for ourselves have been extremely good, and I suspect other companies have similar good results. I think it will put a little pressure on it, depending on the timing of some of these expansion projects. I actually haven't seen the maintenance outages schedule here for next year. You know, what we've seen is, with the increased gas, and depending on what kind of maintenance is being done on the line, it can put some undue pressure on the AECO price here into next year.
It's difficult to say. Directionally, though, it looks like more gas is gonna put more pressure on the system. The timing of these expansions and incremental volume expansions are important.
That's very helpful. Thank you.
Okay.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. You may proceed.
Thank you, operator, and thank you to those who joined us this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please give us a call. Thanks, and have a great day.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.