Elemental Royalty Corporation (TSX:ELE)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2025

May 20, 2025

Frederick Bell
CEO, Elemental Altus

Thank you, everyone, who's coming today for Elemental Altus's Q1 2025 earnings call. We're just giving it a little bit of time as we've got a few people still joining. In the meantime, thank you for those all the way in Vancouver, morning time, and I see we've got some Australian shareholders as well, so we're represented across the different time zones. Today you have got myself, Frederick Bell, the CEO of Elemental Altus, and you've got David Baker, our CFO, who is going to take the majority of this call and walk you through. Look, it was, I think we're good to begin now, and I would say that Q1 2025 was the strongest quarter in the company's history. We had record-adjusted revenue of $13.3 million. For comparison, Q1 in the equivalent period 2024 was $4.7 million.

On top of that revenue, subsequent to the quarter end, we received approximately $9.6 million related to the Ming stream that we had. I think it's worth mentioning our newest producing royalty, Korali- Sud, that also made a strong contribution this quarter, and that was about $6.6 million . It puts us in a position today where we have over $70 million available to the company in non-dilutive capital to deploy. That is from a combination of cash and undrawn credit facilities, and that is by a long distance the largest in the history of the company. It's worth mentioning that we do have flexibility. We have a normal course issue bid that we put in place earlier in the year and is available for us to use going forwards.

A bit more detail and color on some of the numbers coming out from Q1. It was a record both in terms of revenue, EBITDA, and operating cash flow. We had Q1 royalty revenue of $11.6 million , and the adjusted revenue, as mentioned, was $13.3 million. For those not so familiar, the adjusted revenue includes our Caserones royalty. That is up about 179% on the equivalent quarter in 2024. We had Q1 adjusted EBITDA of circa $11.5 million, which is up 259% on the same period in 2024. The Q1 adjusted cash flows from operations was $3.3 million , up 182% on the same period in 2024.

I would just note that the difference between the revenue and the cash flow there reflects the fact that typically we get a lot of these royalty payments post-quarter end, and they convert into cash flow from operation in the following quarter. In terms of gold equivalent oz, then that was another record at 4,606 gold equivalent oz for the quarter, up over 100% from the respective period in 2024. The company remains on track to meet its guidance for this year. Just to reiterate, our guidance was 11,600-13,200 gold equivalent oz, about a 38% increase on 2024 at the midpoint. For that guidance, we're using a $2,600 gold price and a $4 copper price. We expected our 2025 adjusted revenue to be between $30 million and $34 million approximately. At the midpoint, that's about a 50% year-on-year increase in adjusted revenue.

Clearly, we've seen the impact of higher commodity prices coming in over Q1, but more particularly coming into Q2. The longer that stays above our guidance level of $2,600 gold and $4 copper, we expect to see a very positive impact on the revenue numbers coming in. In terms of Korali-Sud, that generated, as we said, $6.6 million in the first quarter, and that was about 2,309 gold equivalent oz. I would note that that production covered the period coming from Q4 last year into Q1 and the first sales. It is a really important milestone for us. As a reminder for people, this is an asset that we sold to Allied Gold. They brought it very quickly into production. This has been the first time that we have got a royalty payment from it.

I think we see a lot of potential for it going into the future, and we can talk to that. We also have some milestone payments related to the royalty. Those are both on commercial production and also subsequent production milestones as it progresses. Look, at the end, post-end of the quarter, as of today, the 20th of May, we have over $22 million in cash, plus an undrawn credit facility. I will touch on this slide on Korali-Sud to hand over to David Baker, our CFO. This is our newest royalty and, as we said, made a really material contribution in Q1. It is a 3% net smelter return royalty on the licenses highlighted in that map there called Korali-Sud and the Lankanfla Central.

Look, we had Allied start production from this in Q4 2024 and continued through ongoing production there. This first royalty payment really reflected production from that Q4 and Q1 period combined. Expecting the contribution from Korali-Sud to be heavily weighted to H1 2025 for us. What is really encouraging here is, I think, the lack of exploration that has really gone on across Korali-Sud and the Lankanfla historically, and the opportunity for Allied. We sold this asset approximately, I think, a bit over 18 months ago to Allied. In that time, they have managed to declare a maiden measured and indicated resource, convert it to reserves. They have got a mining convention with the government. They have started their first mining under the new code, which they had to negotiate in parallel. They have got it up in Q4.

They did just under 50,000 oz just from Korali-Sud. I think in terms of the geological prospectivity, it's excellent in terms of the asset. I think it's a lot of potential for us going into the future. As Allied continue to advance the ground and explore it, I think even though it is partial coverage and we'll have displacement risk on this royalty, I think we see a lot of value for it over the medium to longer term going forwards. With that, I will hand over to Dave to walk through some of the details on the financial side.

David Baker
CFO, Elemental Altus

Thanks, Fred. Yeah, portfolio continues to be underpinned by two cornerstone cash flowing assets and royalties, Karlawinda and Caserones. Both in the quarter delivered strong operational performance and then that continuing upside potential. At Karlawinda, we had gold production of over 30,000 oz. That led to over $1.8 million of revenue. That was driven by its higher-than-expected volumes from the Bibra open pit, combined with record gold prices. Capricorn itself has maintained production guidance of 110,000-120,000 oz of gold for the year to June 2025. In line with our estimates. As we have spoken to previously, Capricorn have announced a major expansion at Karlawinda, targeting 150,000 ounces of gold annually. That is a 30% increase on what they are currently doing, while still maintaining that current 10-year mine life, which we think has plenty of room for expansion.

Caserones also saw strong performance in the quarter, revenue of $1.6 million . That benefited from higher mill throughput and some of those delayed December shipments that we'd spoken to previously that were completed in Q1. Lundin has reiterated 2025 production guidance of 115,000-125,000 tons of copper. And that's pretty consistent with previous years. These two royalties are core to our cash flow base. We've got clear visibility on growth and mine life expansion, which leaves us well positioned to benefit from both commodity upside and operational scale. We also see strong contributions from the broader portfolio, as Fred says, including the commencement of revenue from Korali-Sud, continued strong performance of Bonikro, and also like to give you an update on Wahgnion.

Bonikro contributed Q1 royalty sales on nearly 19,000 oz, slowing slightly year on year, but we'd expect stronger performance ahead as Allied expects to process high-grade material from H2 2025 through 2026 and 2027. We are expecting that to drive growth in our royalty revenue over the short and the medium term. As we've spoken to, we had first revenue from Korali-Sud in Q1 2025 with more than 80,000 royalty attributable oz sold. That includes some of the catch-up sales from Q4 2024. We are expecting that revenue from Korali-Sud to be heavily weighted towards the first half of this year, but we are expecting further updates from Allied in terms of future production and performance from Allied .

At Wahgnion, Wahgnion's currently undergoing an external audit following the sale of the mine to the state of Burkina Faso from Lilium and then Endeavour, and they have put a temporary pause on royalty payments. We haven't received the Q1 royalty statement, so as a conservative approach, we haven't accrued revenue in Q1. Once we receive that statement, that royalty revenue earned in Q1 will be recognized once statements have been received. We are in active dialogue with the management team at Wahgnion and their external auditors. I've spoken personally to the external auditor, and based on those discussions, we expect payment in 2025. We see Wahgnion as a timing issue rather than a frustration issue, and we'll just keep shareholders posted on payments at Wahgnion. In terms of Q1, understandably, because of Korali-Sud, it was a record quarter for Elemental Altus.

Adjusted revenue up 179% year-on-year to $13.3 million . Would just note there that Caserones is reported separately due to our equity accounting treatment. As a result, we had a 102% increase in gold equivalent ounces over the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA rises nearly 260% to $11.5 million profitability scaling alongside our revenue. We had delevered a net income of $3.4 million compared to a loss last year. Cash flow was also robust, operating cash flows up 182% to $3.3 million . Record revenue, record profitability, record cash flow. Q1 marks a step change in our growth trajectory, which is in line with our estimates, but really underscores the strength of our royalty model. Demonstrates the cash-generated power of our portfolio and sets that strong foundation for 2025.

We generated $3.2 million in free cash flow in Q1, as you can see in the waterfall chart there. See that as a really solid result with some timing-related considerations. As Fred spoke to at the start of the call, that $7.5 million working capital movement mostly reflects the timing of issues of Q1 revenue cash receipts falling into Q2. We would expect that to be all caught up in Q2. As I say, we have got that Korali-Sud cash in the bank. G&A expenses in line with expectations, and interest costs are down 86% year-on-year thanks to our ongoing debt reduction, and we are debt-free as of the end of the quarter. Ended Q1 with $4.8 million U.S. in cash, up from $4.5 million. That includes fully repaying the remaining $3 million of debt that we had on the facility at the end of the year.

We are fully debt-free, full $50 million available on that facility. Free cash flow grew more than five times quarter on quarter, reaching $3.2 million. That is driven by strong royalty income and lower costs. Sorry, I just lost that. Q1 marked a major uplift in operating financial performance, strong margins, and growing profitability across the board. Operating profit reached $4.4 million U.S., reversing a small operating loss a year ago. That is driven by higher revenues, inline G&A, and no expense transaction cost for the quarter. We also saw a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA to $11.5 million U.S. for Q1. I have not included this on the slide, but that $11.5 million compares with $15.1 million for the whole of 2024. We have nearly caught up to all of 2024 in one quarter for the year. It really sets us off for an excellent 2025.

Q1 2025 is the strongest quarter in the history of the company. Adjusted revenue more than doubling to $13.3 million. And that's driven by that material contribution from Korali-Sud. Likewise, we've got that new record-high gold equivalent ounces of 4,600 GEOs, doubled year-over-year. This is a significant inflection point for the company. Continued tailwinds going forward from stronger gold prices and cash-flowing royalties. We are seeing that margin increase as revenue scales. EBITDA margin at 87%. That's a record for the company, driven by increased revenue and cost discipline. I mean, even with that Korali-Sud larger revenue for the quarter, the chart clearly shows an upward trend in both EBITDA and margins over the past year. And that's a real testament to our portfolio scale, our operating leverage, and cost discipline.

Our cash flow growth remains strong, with further upside ahead as we receive Korali-Sud receipts and high gold prices flowing through to Q2 and beyond. In terms of the corporate structure and the balance sheet, we've got $50 million of available credit from three of the large Canadian banks. That's National, CIBC, and RBC. We have no debt on the balance sheet, so it's fully undrawn and available as of today. $22.6 million U.S. in the bank as of today. That gives us excellent flexibility for non-diluted growth. We have a strong institutional shareholder base as we've spoken to before. Market cap about $250 million as of today, EV of about $225 million . I think that presents a compelling valuation versus our peers. It also gives us great positioning to move quickly on the right royalty opportunities.

On that basis, I'll head back to Fred to summarize. Then we'll allow room for Q&A.

Frederick Bell
CEO, Elemental Altus

Look, and thank you, David, and also to the team for putting that together and all the work. Where it puts us is it puts us in a position where 2025 will be a record year, both in terms of gold equivalent ounces, but also with the corresponding exposure to the gold price and that leverage to it day to day. I think where the gold price is today gives us material room for improvement on the guidance in terms of revenue numbers that we had at the start of the year. We also have the milestone payments of which we're expecting the majority to land in the first half of the year. We have received that first large payment on the main stream.

In terms of the portfolio, we continue to be anchored by two really high-quality uncapped royalties in Caserones with Lundin Mining in Chile and Karlawinda with Capricorn Metals in Western Australia. We have continuing growth from the portfolio with the addition of the second half of the Alpha Stream portfolio contributing coming into 2025 with the first revenue from the Korali-Sud royalty. Looking ahead, actually even into 2026 with the expansion underway at the Karlawinda Gold Project. We have a track record of value-creating transactions. If you look at our presentation, we update that as every quarter goes by with revenue numbers that we can incorporate. I think what it shows is over time, those returns tend to get better. It shows the value of the royalty model and the value of the optionality that comes through that.

We are, in terms of financial positioning and positioning to transact and opportunities, we are in the strongest position the company has ever been in. To put that into perspective, I think the company deployed approximately $18 million in the first four years of its history. We have more than that in the bank today. We can deploy up to $70 million without needing to raise any further capital. If you look at the opportunities in front of us, I think that where we are today, the same team that we have here would be able to manage a portfolio that is materially larger than what we have today at really insignificant additional cost.

That margin expansion that we see in this quarter and we'll see in the next quarter, that is, I think, part of the benefit of a model like this where you can scale the business really quickly. There is compelling valuation and entry point and quite aside from the producing assets that we have and aside from the development and exploration portfolio, which we really do not talk to in this presentation, and the progress that is being made and the partners who are drilling and adding value across our licenses there. I think the other point that is worth mentioning is also the current gap between the long-term consensus gold price and where we are at spot gold. We do not make predictions in the long term going forwards on the gold price.

What we can say is that every week, every month, the gold price stays above the consensus and above where our guidance is. We have a portfolio that is immediately leveraged and benefits from that. I think that is really the conclusion there of the presentation and a summary on the company. Happy to take any questions if there are some.

David Baker
CFO, Elemental Altus

Thanks, Fred. We'll lead off with one question, which is on Korali-Sud, just a breakdown of ounces for Q4 and Q1 and the expected quarterly run rate. I can kick off with that. In terms of the production or the sales, royalty sales could be paid on sales, not production. We had about 49,000 oz that was unsold in Q4 that contributed to Q1. We say approximately 80,000 oz that were in Q1. That would be the difference. We're looking at approximately 30,000 ounces in Q1. We don't guide on an asset. We don't guide any revenue by or GEOs by asset. We had approximately, and based on discussions and publicly available information from Allied , we had about 100,000 oz for the year from Korali-Sud in terms of our internal expectations. We're about 80,000 oz of that at the moment.

Again, still expect that to be weighted to the first half of the year. I would say that does leave a lot of room for exploration upside, comingling potential of Korali-Sud as well. I think there is upside to that. Say about 49,000 oz and 40,000 oz in Q4, about 31,000 oz in Q1, and then expecting about another 20,000-25,000 oz for the rest of the year. We are still awaiting updates from the operator on the upside there. Hi, Brian. Question for Brian McArthur. Hope you are well. We will talk about cash flow from Wahgnion. We did not book revenues in Q1. When did we lay out our last cash payment and how much is owed? Thanks, Brian. We received a cash payment in Q3 2024, and that was related to Q2 production.

The current receivable on the books relates to Q3 and Q4. That is just a bit over $1 million in post-tax revenue. We have booked that as a receivable. We have not booked anything in Q1. Our view is that that receivable is full and payable. We have heard nothing to the difference from either the company's external auditor or the operators. We are looking to get those payments restarted post-audit. Fred, I might pass this over to you. Another question from Pierce there. Do we have a goal for metals exposure long term? Is that gold? Is that silver? Is that anything else?

Frederick Bell
CEO, Elemental Altus

Look, it's a good question. Thank you, Pierce. I think that currently we have approximately 85% in terms of our revenue exposure to gold and 15% to copper. Our portfolio has a heavy weighting to copper with some of the development assets. I think that long term, we'd like to keep the majority of the portfolio weighted towards precious metals and include silver in that. There are not as many silver opportunities in the market as we have discussed. It is primarily gold and silver. I think what it does do and where we are today is it also allows us the flexibility to opportunistically look at assets and royalties that are in different commodities where we see compelling value.

Broadly speaking, that is how we'll approach it, which is a focus on precious metals, but also a willingness to look at other opportunities where we see really compelling value and with the basis that we have the majority of the portfolio weighted already towards precious metals.

David Baker
CFO, Elemental Altus

Great.

Frederick Bell
CEO, Elemental Altus

There was one question, Dave, just in the chat from Adam, which was around the thank you for the comment, but it was also around the $10.8 million that's accrued royalty income and how much of that is related to Wahgnion.

David Baker
CFO, Elemental Altus

Yeah, thanks, Adam. It's an excellent question. We've accrued nothing for Wahgnion for the quarter, taking a conservative approach given that we don't have the statements available. Certainly, that was a very considered approach by management. We decided to take a very conservative view there. What we would look to do is when we have those statements available to us, we will accrue that revenue in a subsequent quarter. At this stage, we've accrued no revenue in Q1 for Wahgnion.

Frederick Bell
CEO, Elemental Altus

It might just be worth saying to add to that that we have accrued approximately $1.1 million in post-tax royalty revenue from Wahgnion to date. Dave, correct me if that's.

David Baker
CFO, Elemental Altus

Yeah, correct.

Frederick Bell
CEO, Elemental Altus

We have not for Q1.

David Baker
CFO, Elemental Altus

Yeah, exactly right.

Frederick Bell
CEO, Elemental Altus

At the moment, that is all the questions we have. I'll just ask if anyone else has a question, please add it. Oh, here we go. Yes, we have a question here from Mark. Thank you, Mark, relating to, can you talk to any promising developments in the non-producing royalties, perhaps looking ahead over the next 12 months? Look, I think that's a good question because we do not often get the chance to talk about the other 60-70 royalties in our portfolio. I think on these quarterly calls, the focus is largely on the producing assets and the cash flow, but it is a large part, the majority of our portfolio actually on assets that are in the pre-production stage. I think there are some exciting events on some of those.

One or two we can perhaps talk to in a bit more detail, maybe two development assets that we have acquired in the last 18 months. One of those is the Cactus Copper Royalty with Arizona Sonoran. That is a project where we bought the royalty approximately 18 months ago. We have seen the metal gone in our royalty area approximately triple over that period. We have seen Hut 8 come in as a strategic investor alongside Rio Tinto and also Tembo . We have seen the company, I think, make a lot of progress across studies, both incorporating Nuton, which is a technology Rio Tinto have incubated, but also looking at more traditional processing routes. We recently saw, I think two to three months ago, Royal Gold actually come in and acquire the sister royalty to ours at about a 65% higher price.

I think that is a good demonstration of the value add on one of those assets where I think we're continuing to see a lot of progress being made over the course of this year. Maybe another one that we acquired last autumn, which was the royalty on Mactung. At the end of last year, we saw the announcement of approximately $25 million in funding from the U.S. government, DoD, and the Canadian government provisionally to fast track that to a final investment decision. I think they're targeting a feasibility study for 2027. From our point of view, look, that is a really good catalyst there. That is a project that unusually has seen six to seven years of permitting done in Canada.

The timeframe from taking that project from feasibility through to construction and FID is a lot shorter than it would be comparatively for any project without that. Those two, I think, are really good examples where recent acquisitions on the non-producing phase, and both of those have seen significant catalysts. In one case, in the case of Cactus, actually a market precedent transaction at a significantly higher price than what we historically paid for it. I think there are a number of other assets, particularly some of the brownfield former operating gold mines where we have royalties in Canada and in Australia, where I think we are looking to get updates over the summer on progress on those that I think could be quite encouraging. We will see how those go. All right, we are just coming up for the half-hour mark.

I think that is the last question we've received. Dave, I might hand it over to you to round off.

David Baker
CFO, Elemental Altus

Thanks, everyone, for joining.

Frederick Bell
CEO, Elemental Altus

We might have lost your audio, Dave.

David Baker
CFO, Elemental Altus

Apologies. I'll try again. Thanks, Fred. Thanks, everyone, for joining. Again, record quarter for revenue, EBITDA, and profitability for the company. Made in revenue at Korali-Sud with our newest producing royalty. Looking forward to that trend continuing with record gold prices and growth in some of our material assets. Thank you, everyone, and I look forward to speaking soon.

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