Good morning, and welcome to the Enbridge Inc. first quarter 2026 conference call. My name is Marlon Samuel, and I am the Vice President of Investor Relations and Insurance. Joining me this morning are Greg Ebel, President and CEO, Pat Murray, EVP and Chief Financial Officer, and the heads of each of our business units, Colin Gruending, Liquids Pipelines, Matthew Akman, Gas Transmission, Michele Harradence, Gas Distribution and Storage, and Allen Capps, Renewable Power. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session for the investment community. Please note this conference call is being recorded. As per usual, this call is being webcast, and I encourage those listening to follow along with the supporting slides.
We will try to keep the call to roughly 1 hour. In order to answer as many questions as possible, we will be limiting questions to 1 plus a single follow-up if necessary. We will be prioritizing questions from the investment community. If you are a member of the media, please direct your inquiries to our communications team who will be happy to respond. As always, our investor relations team will be available after the call for any follow-up questions. On to slide 2, where I will remind you that we will be referring to forward-looking information on today's presentation and Q&A. By its nature, this information contains forecast assumptions and expectations about future outcomes, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties outlined here and discussed more fully in our public disclosure filings. We will also be referring to non-GAAP measures summarized below.
With that, I'll turn it over to Greg Ebel.
Thanks very much, Marlon, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us once again today. The 1st quarter was a strong start to the year, reflecting solid financial performance and continued execution across our businesses. We reaffirmed our 2026 guidance and medium-term outlook and continue to operate in line with our 4.5 to 5 times debt-to-EBITDA target. From an operational standpoint, utilization was high across all businesses, with record Q1 Mainline volumes and numerous peak delivery days on our U.S. Gas Transmission and Distribution systems. In April, we completed our 7th expansion of tank storage at Ingleside and have now increased storage capacity to approximately 20 million barrels, and we brought the 120,000 barrel per day Gray Oak expansion into service.
On the execution and growth front, we announced open seasons on the Flanagan South and Southern Access Extension pipelines, which support Mainline Optimization Phase 2. We also completed a successful open season on the Spearhead pipeline. During the quarter, we sanctioned a number of exciting projects in Gas Transmission, including expansions to our Tres Palacios natural gas storage and our 60% owned Vector pipeline. We also announced an expansion of unregulated natural gas storage at Enbridge Gas Ontario and the 300 MW Cone Power project. We'll dive in a little deeper into these projects in the business update slides. First, let's take a look at how Enbridge continues to connect supply with rising energy demand.
The importance of energy security has become even more evident since the start of the conflict with Iran, and Enbridge is well-positioned to deliver North America's abundant energy resources, both domestically and globally. LNG exports remain a critical component of energy security. North American liquefaction capacity is expected to require over 30 BCF per day of natural gas by 2030, and Enbridge is poised to support the global demand through serving 100% of the operating LNG facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast. We continue to deepen our integration with LNG markets as well via storage expansions of Aitken Creek, Tres Palacios, Egan, and Moss Bluff, new Permian gas egress projects, and the advancement of WoodFiber LNG.
Natural gas demand in North America is expected to increase by 28 BCF per day by 2030. We have already begun capturing that growth through sanctioned projects, with more new projects to come in the quarters ahead. Tennessee Ridgeline, connecting to a power generation facility converting from coal to gas. Algonquin Gas Transmission expansion, providing additional capacity to the underserved U.S. Northeast. The Vector expansion serving utilities in the Midwest are just a few examples of infrastructure we're currently building to support local demand. On the liquid side, we are in the midst of advancing 430,000 barrels per day of incremental Mainline and express capacity by 2028, adding timely and efficient egress for our WCSB customers. Our Permian Super System remains a cornerstone of the export story. It continues to grow.
Projects like the Gray Oak expansion and the new storage tanks at Ingleside support the export facility, which delivers roughly 25% of all U.S. crude exports today. We expect all this to lead to North America moving more than 5 million barrels per day of crude on an ongoing basis to key international markets, including Europe, Asia, and Latin America. We all know energy markets have been disrupted since the conflict in Iran. Enbridge will be ready to play its part in providing reliable, secure, and affordable energy to customers domestically and overseas. Now let's take a look at how Enbridge's business model is designed to succeed regardless of the macro environment. Despite market volatility since the start of 2026, Enbridge continues to deliver consistent and growing shareholder returns.
Our cash flows remain of the highest quality and predictability, diversified across more than 200 asset streams, and are largely protected by regulated and long-term take-or-pay contractual frameworks. We have unmatched market access, serving more than 75% of North America refineries, moving roughly 20% of all natural gas consumed in North America, and directly serving over 7 million gas utility customers. Our diversified platform allows us to provide end-to-end energy solutions across liquids, Gas Transmission, Gas Distribution, and power. Long-standing relationships with customers and our continuously growing partnership with Meta remain a key competitive advantage and underpin our accretive project backlog. We continue to grow through our CAD 40 billion capital backlog, which supports visible growth through the end of the decade. We can finance that growth using our CAD 10 billion-CAD 11 billion of equity self-funded annual investment capacity and the strong balance sheet.
Let's dive into the business unit updates, starting with Liquids Pipelines. Our Liquids Pipelines business continued to deliver strong performance as we advance efficient egress and storage expansions to meet rising demand. On the Mainline, we achieved record first quarter volumes of 3.2 million barrels per day, reflecting strong utilization and the critical role of the system. We're advancing Mainline Optimization Phase 2, or MLO-2, which is expected to add 250,000 barrels per day of incremental WCSB egress capacity by the end of 2028. In support of MLO-2, we launched a binding open season for 200,000 barrels per day of incremental FSP capacity and 50,000 barrels per day of incremental capacity on the Southern Access Extension pipeline.
Early construction activities, including clearing of the right-of-way, have now begun on Line 5 Relocation project in Wisconsin, supporting the continued flow of vital energy supply in the region. We also completed a successful open season on the Spearhead Pipeline, recontracting volumes into the next decade. In April, we received a number of presidential permits for our Liquids Pipelines. These permits provide operational flexibility for day-to-day operations as well as future expansions. Along the Gulf Coast, our Ingleside storage expansion has entered service, increasing site capacity to approximately 20 million barrels. Finally, the Gray Oak expansion is now complete, and the pipe operating capacity is now over 1 million barrels per day, further strengthening our export connectivity. Now let's take a look into our Gas Transmission business. We continue to benefit from diversified demand drivers, creating attractive and highly visible capital opportunities across our Gas Transmission footprint.
In the U.S., we are executing well across our system to support rising demand from power generation, local gas utilities, LNG facilities, and new data centers. We are advancing over CAD 10 billion of near-term growth opportunities with several projects reaching FID this quarter, with more to come this year and next. Those projects include the Tres Palacios expansion, adding 25 BCF of natural gas storage along the Gulf Coast. The project CapEx is expected to be CAD 400 million and enter service in stages from 2028 to 2030. We have also sanctioned an expansion of the Vector pipeline for just over CAD 100 million, adding 400 million cubic feet per day of westbound capacity to serve growing local utility demand and targeted for in-service in 2028.
We continue to evaluate additional expansion opportunities on Vector and recently closed a non-binding open season in April for another 300 to 500 MMSCF per day on that pipeline. This open season was highly successful, with customer interest exceeding the offered capacity. Our East Tennessee pipeline reached a settlement in principle on the rate case filed last year. We expect to file the agreement with the FERC in the second quarter. In Canada, expansions to our Gas Transmission network are also advancing. Recently, we received all of our required approvals on the CAD 4 billion Sunrise expansion, with construction expected to begin by early summer. At Wood Fiber LNG, the delivery of the liquefaction module this quarter represents another important execution milestone.
Altogether, we have approximately CAD 10 billion of projects under construction in British Columbia to support both domestic energy needs and Canada's growing LNG export market. Let's move over to Gas Distribution. In Ontario, we sanctioned approximately 8 BCF of unregulated natural gas storage expansion at the Dawn Hub with an in-service date of 2029. This project strengthens the critical energy platform for Ontario and surrounding regions. At Enbridge Gas Ohio, we filed a new rate case on December 31, 2025, with rates expected to go into service effective in 2027. As a reminder, Utah and North Carolina saw new rates go into effect on January 1, 2026 and November 1, 2025, respectively. Our Gas Distribution and Storage business continues to deliver steady regulated growth through disciplined rate base investment.
The T15 project is progressing, supporting the Roxboro Power Plant's conversion from coal to gas and expected to have a phased and in-service from 2027 to 2028. At the Moriah Energy Center, the $600 million U.S. LNG storage facility will strengthen system resiliency by adding 2 BCF of capacity in 2027. Collectively, we expect our utilities to grow rate base by 5% annually through 2029. While Ontario's growth is slowing, our diversity of assets allows us to redirect capital to the U.S., which very likely will exceed their 8% growth CAGR through 2029. Now I'll move on to the Renewables segment. Our Renewable Power business continues to progress with disciplined focus on high-quality projects anchored by blue-chip customers and long-term contracted cash flows.
At Sequoia, we will have 815 megawatts of generation capacity, about half of which is already in service, and the remaining capacity is expected to come online later this year. We are also happy to announce we are extending our partnership with Meta once again by sanctioning Cone, an onshore wind project in Texas, which we expect to invest $700 million and have the project enter service by the end of 2027. Our partnership with Meta has grown to over one gigawatt of power generation between Clearfork, Easter, and now Cone, and we expect the partnership to grow further. Beyond our sanctioned projects, we have approximately 1.5 gigawatts of additional safe harbor renewable projects providing meaningful capital optionality. With all that, I will pass it on to Pat to go over our financial performance through the start of the year.
Thank you, Greg, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. I'm happy to say we're off to another strong start in 2026. Compared to the first quarter of 2025, adjusted EBITDA remained consistent, DCF per share is up CAD 0.03, and EPS is down about CAD 0.05. In liquids, as expected, the absence of a litigation settlement, lower contributions from our market access pipelines, and lower line 9 tolls resulted in a decrease compared to Q1 2025. In Gas Transmission, favorable contracting on our U.S. Gas Transmission assets and strong storage results drove the year-over-year increase in EBITDA. Gas Distribution increased year-over-year after the recent rate cases in Utah and North Carolina took effect, as Greg mentioned earlier, and from rate escalators in Ontario.
In renewables, results were lower compared to last year due to the absence of investment tax credits relating to the Fox Squirrel Solar Project, partially offset by strong international wind resources in the first quarter of 2026. A CAD 0.07 decrease in the average CAD to U.S. FX rates year-over-year impacted all four business units, resulting in lower EBITDA in 2026. This was, however, partially offset in eliminations and other due to our realized hedge rate being higher and closer to the actual FX rate we saw in the quarter. Cash distributions in excess of equity earnings was higher in 2026 due to the absence of a legal settlement recognized in Q1 2025 earnings but primarily received in cash in subsequent periods.
Higher depreciation from assets placed into service and higher income taxes from the absence of investment tax credits in 2026 drove the decrease in EPS. I'm pleased to reaffirm the 2026 guidance that we shared last December. Our resilient business model supports strong and predictable performance across all market cycles and conditions, something that is evident in our results given the volatile periods we've seen recently. We're on track to achieve the midpoints of our guidance ranges for both EBITDA and DCF per share and are also reaffirming our post-2026 growth outlook of 5% average annual growth rate for EBITDA, DCF per share, and EPS. As a reminder, Q1 and Q4 reflect our strongest quarters as a result of higher utility demand and higher volumes in our Liquids Pipelines and Gas Transmission systems during winter months.
Moving on to our capital allocation priorities, our approach remains unchanged in 2026, supported by continued equity self-funding and the stability of our regulated and predictable cash flows. Returning capital through dividends remains core to our value proposition. We returned CAD 38 billion to shareholders over the past five years and expect to return CAD 40 billion-CAD 45 billion over the next five years. Our CAD 40 billion backlog extends through 2033, providing strong long-term growth visibility as we prioritize accretive brownfield opportunities. With that, I'll pass it back to Greg to close out the presentation.
Thanks, Pat. Enbridge remains a first-choice investment opportunity with a value proposition designed to deliver superior shareholder returns across all markets, geopolitical and commodity cycles. At the core of this is stability, reflected in our low-risk utility-like business model and a fundamentally diverse asset base. Our strength comes from predictable, resilient cash flows that support a strong balance sheet, disciplined capital allocation, and ongoing strategic investments. Consistency is a defining feature of our story, highlighted by 31 consecutive years of annual dividend increases as well as 20 years of achieving financial guidance. Looking ahead, we expect approximately 5% annual average growth through the end of the decade, driven by our growing secured capital program.
We maintain the ability to deploy capital across our four franchises, allowing us to respond quickly to the most compelling opportunities in front of us. As the long-term total return performance on this slide illustrates, our business model has continued to perform through events ranging from financial crises to global pandemics and geopolitical shocks. Enbridge's scale, diversification, and stable business model positions us well to continue delivering durable growth and long-term value to our shareholders, making us that first choice investment opportunity. We are in a world with an amazing growth macro for energy infrastructure, the best growth opportunities I have seen in 10-15 years. This could be a real upside for investors should we see the EBITDA multiples of that period reemerge as the macro fundamentals seem to suggest they should.
With that, I'd like to thank you all for listening in and will now open the line for questions.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one in your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. Your first question comes from a line of Aaron MacNeil from TD Cowen. Your line is open.
Hey, morning all. Thanks for taking my questions.
Morning.
Last quarter, you had a slide in your deck that highlighted 10 billion-20 billion of near-term growth opportunities. One of the more interesting items on that slide was export optionality at Ingleside in light of, you know, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the market's renewed focus on, you know, energy security and non-Middle East supply. You noted the new storage in your remarks and announced, you know, the acquisition of the Flint Hills docks not too long ago. I guess my question is, are you seeing a measurable increase in inbound inquiries for incremental export capacity to Ingleside? You know, would you expect export growth to pull through additional pipeline debottlenecking upstream, or is the sequencing the other way around?
Aaron, hey, good morning. It's Colin, and obviously a timely question. I think, well the short answer is yes. I can elaborate a little further. We didn't see a lot of that come through in the Q1 period, right? In March, because of the trade cycle and things. It showed up strongly in April, May, and June here. Everyone understands the dynamic there. We do expect a lot more business there, I think, you know, on a capital efficient basis, right? As you mentioned, we purchased the neighboring docks a couple of years ago. We've got permitting headroom there. We just finished a CAD 2.5 million storage expansion at Ingleside, so there should be some operating leverage here.
Hopefully it's capital efficient. Yes, on the dock and on the pipe as well over time. I mean, there's an implicit comment there around the outlook for the Permian Basin, which we continue to believe is a winner, and the majors are there. I think you're seeing a lot of discipline at the outset here, a couple producers adding some rigs. I think the consensus view would be that the price of oil globally, it probably has a higher floor, and we'll likely see rigs added through the fall budget cycle and into 2027 as well.
Hey Aaron, it's Greg. I would just add that everything Colin says, bang on. You know, exports now kind of pushing 6 million barrels just with the conflict. I think it'll be really interesting to see is even when the conflict is solved, how much more reliance, and I think there will be, on the U.S. Gulf Coast and Canada for that matter as well, and that should position well for those with the docks closest to blue water, which would be us. Let's not lose track of how important it also is for the refining complexes as people look for more secure product. You've seen refining capacity creep up. Obviously that's important for inland pipelines as well as exports.
As Colin said, you know, You know, I don't know exactly what the price will be, but if you thought oil was gonna be CAD 65-CAD 70, I don't think you should be surprised that the new base is CAD 75-CAD 80, which is helpful for production too. It's actually lining up to be a super favorable environment for oil infrastructure in North America, both domestically and export-wise.
Great. Thanks for the color there. You mentioned the one and a half gigawatts of safe harbored renewables projects in your prepared remarks. The wedge of renewables projects coming into service in 2027 is pretty significant. I guess, like, do you think you could see another meaningful contribution in 2028, and when would you need to see announcements by in order to sort of lock that in?
Well, I'll let Allen speak to that, but you know, one of the great things you've pointed out is just how relatively quick cycle these are. Even the one we announced today gets into 2027, and that 1.5 gigawatts is important. Allen, you wanna speak to that?
Sure. Thanks, Aaron. Good morning. Really have on that, on the backlog, we could probably see some of those actually coming in in probably 2028, 2029 timeframe. That said, you know, these things tend to come in kind of chunky. I think you've seen quite a bit in the last few quarters where we've had pretty much an announcement every quarter for quite some time. And you'll see probably a few more in the coming you know, two to three quarters, then may tail off for a little bit, and then you'll start to see more of them come back in.
As we're taking advantage of those safe harbor opportunities. You know, a lot of those opportunities that we have, not only are they safe harbor, they have the permits too. You know, a lot of folks are concerned about the federal permits and the like, and a lot of them have those federal permits as well. A real opportunity for us, I think you'll continue to see, is the demand for renewables is really good right now and I think that's evidenced by all the projects that we have coming in. As you continue to see that demand and be robust on the renewable side, I think we'll be taking advantage of it.
Yeah, and it's not just renewable, it's power, right? I think what you're seeing with the Meta deals and stuff that Allen talks about, and we've said this before, but I think it's bearing out. No one's talking about the color of electrons. The number one thing that prevents AI from progressing further isn't GPU architecture, it's really access to energy, and that's the first time that's happened. Yeah, game on for power, but that's why it's nice to have gas infrastructure and renewable infrastructure so we can serve those Magnificent Seven clients.
Great. Thanks everyone, I'll turn it back.
Thanks, Aaron.
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Hope from Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Morning everyone. Have two comments or two questions on the critical business. First, how are you thinking about the competitive positions of MLO2, but I guess more importantly MLO3 versus some of the competing options which, you know, I would say are bubbling up to the surface being Prairie Connector as well as a larger expansion of the Trans Mountain system?
Sure, Rob. Hey, good morning and, you know, a few points of color around that. Listen, I think you've followed us for a while and realize our Mainline path is resilient and an advantage, so has defensive and offensive strength. It's demonstrated time and time again. We're growing it. As a reminder, something on our connector and MLO1 are in execution and trending well, and we're commercializing MLO2 as we've discussed. MLO2 is well-engineered, relatively advanced on scope, capital cost well understood. We're actively engaged with a number of customers. In contrast to alternatives, I think a reminder that MLO2 was always intended to be an inside the fence expansion.
You know, permit-light, executable, no new pipe per se, which is novel, using existing pipelines and in service quickly, which is important. Another point which is often lost, with modest take-or-pay deficiency requirements, right? Given that the Mainline is generally walk up. That's trending well. You know, I think we've seen other competitors respond to the quite favorable outlook in the Canadian basin, which is not surprising. I won't comment, you know, exactly on each of the competitors. I think they're well covered.
You know, if we do see shippers term contract on any of these, I think I would view it as a positive sign and a vote of confidence in the basin and the outlook, which should float all oil infra. That's a very as Greg was saying, I think it's a very positive macro. Certainly, the mainline expansion program will get its share. You mentioned MLO3, we're developing that still. With, you know, 7 pipelines in the right of way and now with amended U.S. presidential permits, modernized and harmonized with respect to product type and flexibility around capacity limits.
We've got, you know, a plethora of flexibility here to tailor and design whatever is needed at the right time. We've got a number of versions, I would say, of MLO3, if you wanna think about it that way. That's how we see it play out here. I zoom back out and just observe that it's a very favorable macro and we're all trying to serve customers who are monetizing a world-class resource.
Appreciate that color. Maybe then moving over to Line 5, looks like there's been a number of updates there. Can you know, maybe add a little bit more color on some of the legal challenges on the tunnel as well as the construction in Wisconsin?
Thanks Rob. Yeah, I'll try to abbreviate my answer. This question tends to get long, maybe yeah, we haven't talked about Line 5 in a while, which is probably a good thing. I'll give you a quick update. As you know, you know, big picture Line 5 continues to be pretty critical energy infra for Canada and the U.S., the Great Lakes region contributing to this all-important energy security. The line is closely scrutinized, including by PHMSA, the U.S. Pipeline Safety Regulator, it will continue to operate safely for the foreseeable future.
I think courts have increasingly recognized this U.S. federal jurisdiction recent court findings. As a reminder, nonetheless, we are permitting and pursuing relocating two sections of Line 5 at the request of local governments and tribes at industry's expense. In Wisconsin, we're advancing a 41-mile relocation to discontinue operation across the Bad River Reservation. In Michigan, we're moving the pipe from the lakebed to the tunnel. Timeline-wise, we expect to complete these in late 2026 and the early 2030s respectively. In Wisconsin, we have state and federal permits. We have easements on the 41-mile relocation route and have been completing pre-construction activities, think tree clearing and prepping the right of way.
It's May now, spring road bans have recently ended, and we'll advance construction here through the summer and late fall. The permits now contested and well-known and in hand, we're now better able to accurately estimate the Wisconsin project cost, which is now approaching US $900 million. This is more than you'd typically expect for this 41 mile distance, but consider that about a third of that $900 million value is related to 6 years of considerable permitting, legal and tribal engagement and has been incurred, so we've got about $600 million left. You should expect to see this project added to our secured project listing in the second quarter, Rob.
Quickly on Michigan, we don't have a refreshed estimate CapEx-wise for the tunnel at this time as we continue to await state and federal permits and conditions. Maybe the last point I'll just make here is a reminder that the investments in Line 5 infra Wisconsin, Michigan, regular stuff are all covered as eligible rate base within our commercial arrangements and will be borne by our shippers through tolls over time. I don't know if that catches you up. Hopefully, Rob.
Yep, that's great. Thank you.
Thanks, Rob.
Your next question comes from a line of Spiro Dounis from Citi. Your line is open.
Good morning. Thank you, team. I wanna start with opportunistic gains here and the results for the first quarter. Strong start to the year, but you're reaffirming the guidance. Just curious if you could just walk us through how much of that 1 Q performance exceeded internal expectations. Understanding that your assets are built for stability, it did seem like you were able to benefit from some of the volatility and weather out there. To the extent that's accurate, how you think about your ability to keep capturing some of that upside and volatility for the rest of the year?
Yeah, I'll let Pat go at this, but I would say re-reminder. We rarely change our number in the first quarter no matter how good it may be, largely because we've got a strong first quarter and a strong fourth quarter. As you point out, you know, with a highly contracted, very small commodity exposure, you know, that's why we've structured the company that way. Pat, do you wanna speak a little bit too?
Yeah. I mean, there's probably 2 or 3 areas that we benefit from weather, as you're noting, on the edges of the business model. You know, first being in Ontario where we've got, you know, weather impacts. It was about net year-over-year, only about CAD 10 million because we had a colder Q1 last year as well. There's about CAD 10 million there. Aitken Creek, the storage facility that we're currently expanding, has the ability to take advantage, there's probably CAD 0.01 or so of over-performance there. A little bit on things like interruptible service on our gas pipes. All in all, you can think of it as being a couple of CAD 0.01 in the quarter.
That just speaks to the business model that we have and the fact that we have, like, no commodity exposure. I think, you know, more so than the weather, Colin's talked about the implication of a tailwind for things like Ingleside and Grey Oak. We'll monitor that in the second quarter and see how that goes and how long that lasts for and adjust as we go. Right now, we're still pretty comfortable with the range that we've given you.
That's great. Maybe switching gears to the Permian. Greg, you sound understandably pretty constructive on the basin. I think your reference was to the crude side, but of course, a lot of gas coming out of the ground with it. You're obviously pretty active there on the Permian gas egress side. You think over 10 BCF a day of new pipelines coming would be enough to satisfy, but already getting a lot of indication that that might not be enough. Just curious how you're thinking about the need for more egress and Enbridge's potential involvement in more expansions there?
Yeah. Let's not forget our position in WhiteWater, and I think as you may see some information on that, I would agree with your bullishness in that regard. We are too. We seem to fill up every pipeline, industry-wide the minute they open up the valves in the Permian. I think there's more opportunities there, and we're pursuing those. Matthew, maybe you wanna speak to some of that.
Yeah, sure. Hi, good morning. Couple areas of opportunity there, as Greg mentioned, and a reminder, our interest in the WhiteWater Midstream assets, which is sort of our direct play on the pipes there. Couple pipelines coming into service this year there still. We have Bay Runner Pipeline coming into service later this year and Blackcomb, then a whole bunch of other stuff going forward, or we have a position, as you know, in Eiger. I think the other piece though for us that we see, you saw this in our announcements, is storage. You know, with all the activity coming out of the Permian Basin, a lot of that gas is obviously gonna be going offshore and a lot of additional storage required just for additional demand and some of that for the LNG crowd.
You know, we've got great exposure to that, expanding all of our storage assets in the Gulf. As you know, now we have almost 50 BCF of expansion underway down there. That's another way that we can profitably, with low capital, high returns, play that theme.
You know, the other nice thing about the storage is, you know, we always talk about our gas business growing at, being able to build at six to eight times, but that project we talked with you and announced today is actually a little bit below that. When you can get into the 5s, when you're building brownfield storage, and given some of the demands Matthew spoke to, those are super attractive for us.
Got it. It's great color. I'll leave it there today. Thanks, team.
Your next question comes from the line of Maurice Choy from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Thanks, good morning, everyone. Just to pick up on one of the comments you made, Greg, in your prepared remarks. You mentioned that this is the best growth set of growth opportunities you've seen in the last 10 to 15 years. Can you elaborate a little bit more on that, also speak to, you know, how do returns compare today versus in the past, and what kind of risks that industry players like Enbridge are experiencing today versus the past?
Absolutely. I'm thinking about that period, you know, the 2012, 2016 period, which was a super positive element, and you saw dramatically higher EBITDA multiples. Where I was going is, as you see the increased need for energy security, whether it's global security issues or technology, AI, and power growth, which you're well aware of, is a multiple of what we saw. I haven't seen that opportunity from an investment perspective fully be realized by the market below, say, you know, look, you got the tech companies, you got the Caterpillar of the world, but it's not being fully realized, I don't think, by investors yet in the midstream side. You're seeing very solid returns. I just talked to things like storage or LNG projects and renewables.
You know, you're seeing, low mid-teen type returns for us, that are super attractive. Then even on the utility side, while you don't see the same type of returns, just in really quite phenomenal growth, in rate base, which I just think a couple of years ago nobody saw. We've been speaking a lot about the oil business. It's not just 1 business, it's all of these businesses playing off the theme of everything from tech, which drives power, LNG, which is about security, oil, which is the refining complexes and industrial side, as well as on the export side. All the pieces that Enbridge have, seem to have a really great macro, backdrop.
Where I was going is it seems to me that investors haven't yet realized how beneficial and long run that will be. I mean, we're talking about through 2030 very comfortably, in terms of the growth folks see, which would be longer than what we saw in that 2012 to 2016 period. That's where I was going with that, and I think it soon will be recognized.
That's great. Maybe my one follow-up to that is, you know, as you instead of looking backwards now, as you look forward beyond this 2030 horizon, you know, as you think about how customer demand requests are changing, are your four core franchises sufficient or are there incremental value chain additions that you think is appropriate?
Yeah, it's a good question. We're always looking at that, either whether it's adjacencies or actually going further back. Again, you know, you look at the super system that Colin and his team have built back into the Permian obviously, and then on the export side. Same on the gas side that we've done in that neck of the woods. Obviously, our extension on the distribution side. The real element I see is there's no longer the discussion of, again, what color your molecule or electron is. It's how quickly can you get me electrons and molecules or barrels? I think if you look at our project list, we're very focused on that, the quick cycle stuff at the distribution company.
The actually quite quick cycle, relative to some other forms of power on the renewable side of things, which is super attractive. Again, the footprint we see on the Gas Transmission side and the liquid side allows us to get there quicker than most people. I think the greenfield risk that we saw in prior periods is less relevant to Enbridge today given our footprint that's already there. That's a really game on for growth, from a Enbridge perspective. Appreciate the question.
I like us talking about, you know, more growth as opposed to less growth, and the removal from terminal value as a and more talking about are we really valuing these companies, given what's happening above in other parts of the economy that should be there. As you can tell, we're pretty excited about it, and we'll continue to bring projects forward. I know Matthew, in the next couple of quarters, it seems like every business unit, we're able to bring on some stuff each quarter to build that backlog. That it builds EBITDA, which builds capacity, which allows us to continue to use both the internally generated equity and the balance sheet to grow.
All right. That's definitely value to the incumbency. I agree with you. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning.
Morning, Jeremy.
I see there's more, you know, expansions on the gas storage side here. Just wanted to get a feeling, I guess, for how big the opportunity set is there. We haven't, you know, necessarily had a lot of storage development in recent years and, you know, the gas market has grown. Just wanted to see, you know, your thoughts on that. And then, and then at the same time, I guess, as an extension, a further interest in LNG assets.
Sure. Matthew?
Hey, Jeremy, it's Matthew. Yeah, we're very excited about our gas storage assets and our expansion program. I am just looking at the fundamentals over the last 10 years, just the ratio of storage to production and demand in the U.S. has been cut in half. Actually, that kind of understates the gap between supply and demand because things are getting a lot more peaky, which requires more storage. We need to catch up on that, and the value of storage is on the rise. You know, as we've announced now with this new Tres Palacios expansion, we've got almost 50 BCF under construction in the Gulf Coast coming on over the next, you know, call it 5 years or so.
Then also just as a reminder, up in Canada, we've got 40 BCF under construction at Aitken Creek. You know, that is a great pipeline of growth for us. In addition to that, just capital expansion, we do see, as we roll contracts, higher storage rates. When you combine that, just given the fundamental trends I was talking about with the expansion, we're definitely seeing double-digit type growth on those. You know, we've got this great program in front of us, over $1 billion US of expansion and storage now, if you add it all up, which is great. We'll build that out. There's probably a little bit more we could do around the margins on that, but those are probably the big ones for now. We like the organic type growth.
Others have been, we noticed, acquiring stuff. You know, I mean, building stuff at book value is definitely a huge advantage for us relative to those, you know, going out and paying multiples of that in the market. Like our position, great pipeline, and we're very excited about this program.
Hey, Jeremy, you also mentioned the LNG opportunity. We're open to that. We like our model though of doing it in such a way that is lower risk and more toll-based, if you will. We see those opportunities, and we'll look at that. I think that's some of the adjacencies. We don't wanna take on a bunch of commodity exposure. That's not our style from that perspective. As Matthew says, even if we don't find those, given our position, we currently serve 100% of the Gulf Coast LNG. Obviously, involved with that in B.C. and billions of dollars being spent there both on our on behalf of our customers on our pipelines and storage. Yeah, we'll look at those opportunities as well.
That sure doesn't look like it's moving away. That's another example of some of the difficulties in the Middle East, meaning North American. North America, whether it's the Gulf Coast or it's the West Coast of Canada, is a choice place for consumers, to be able to get a hold of LNG without taking on the risks, that I think have become much more illustrated there. Yeah, we'll look at those two.
Got it. That's helpful. Then I just wanted to shift gears a little bit here. As far as the power markets and as far as, I guess, you know, with the ISOs and regulation there, we've seen, I guess, some proposed changes and seems like changes overall. Just wondering if that has impacted the nature of your conversations with new gas-fired generation or just any thoughts you could share there and where you see the greatest near-term opportunity as you talk about this CAD 10 billion of near-term capital opportunities.
Hey, Jeremy, it's Matthew again. Yeah. I think you're onto an important point. I mean, there's two kind of categories or maybe three of things going on here. One is, and this is, you know, really a kind of a very current and present thing, which is just regulated utilities that have embedded power generation for utility load with pent-up demand, and we're seeing a lot of that across our entire system for power. There's the data center stuff, which, you know, is playing out. We have great conversations there on the power side for potential extensions, and I know Michele has a lot of that in her business too.
I think maybe the thing that's more directly on point to what you're talking about is, you know, can we start signing up some of these merchant power plants, based on, you know, what's in the past been kind of perverse disincentives, frankly, for them to sign up for long-haul gas pipeline capacity, and whether that could change based on some rules. I think there's some good ideas floating around on that piece. It's early days, but certainly, there's gonna be more potential for that. You know, a lot of these merchant guys are gonna end up
Direct drive into data centers. As they sign up for longer-term contracts on the offtake, we think there's great potential for them to then go upstream on the gas pipeline side, and we're having those conversations. I think you're onto an important theme that's definitely gonna be driving growth across our business.
Yeah. It seems like multi-year capacity markets could shake things up there. Thanks for the thoughts.
Thanks, Jeremy.
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Catellier from CIBC. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, everyone. I wondered if you could elaborate on the comments in the presentation about favorable contracting in Gas Transmission. Does this relate to rates, term, or something else entirely? Which end markets are really driving this, I'm thinking in terms of LNG, power, et cetera, and which geographies are most important to that trend?
On the contracting side, I'm not exactly sure which part you're referring to, look, I mean, well, you could look it on the storage side to start with, right? What used to always be short-term contracts, we're seeing, and I think we've talked about this before, you know, half the capacity at Aitken Creek, for example, is 10 years. Very long-term contracts similar to that, for the new Tres Palacios, 25Bs we talked about today, which I think just speaks to nobody wants to be caught out without actually having access to the product. I think it's just a general, a general comment, Robert Hope, with respect to whether it's storage, whether it's pipelines, and also our risk appetite too.
You know, we're not gonna build pipelines with 5-year contracts and they get a little shaky at 10-year contracts, to be quite honest as well. Storage is different. It's always been shorter. You see the same kind of thing happening, in Colin's business as well as we've extended some of the contracts, and the market-facing pipes out into 2030s, which is not something that I think you could have done a few years ago. I think it's, I think it's less about regulatory, more about on the customer side, not wanting to be caught short in this opportunistically, rich environment, and obviously the Enbridge traditional, perspective on how much risk we're willing to take on.
Okay. Just for a point of clarification, I was referring to the Gas Transmission comment on page 11.
I'll move on to my other question which has to do with your rate case strategy, particularly in Ohio. Obviously you filed for a rate case there. I wondered how you can describe how your regulatory strategy in Ohio has evolved since that last rate case outcome.
Sure, Robert, it's Michele here. Yes, that last, that last rate case was filed late in 2023 by Dominion. Really what we're doing here is the fact is we filed a new rate case in December, and the fact is there have been some material changes that just simply needed to be reflected since things were in place back in late 2023. Based on the timing, we What we're doing is we're seeking to recover our revenues that are sufficient, of course, to pay for our current operating expenses, importantly, to service our debt. That's one of the biggest things that has shifted is the interest rates that were applicable back in 2023 versus now. Then it's any investments and deferrals from the 2 big rider programs that you'd be familiar with.
We have in Ohio the CEP or the Capital Expenditure Program and the Pipeline Integrity Program. Those will get wrapped in to the end of June. They're already being recovered on because of the short cycle nature of them in the monthly riders, but we sweep all that in. It's in the discovery stage now with the staff's report is expected in July, and we'd expect to enter into meaningful settlement negotiations then with the rates going into place in the first quarter of 2027. We are really working hard to keep this one tight as simply an update on a lot of the numbers that have changed materially that we had to update and ensure that we're recovering on.
Hey, Robert, I'm sorry. I was not following what you were looking to. Now I see what you were talking about. That's vis-a-vis the tailwinds that we see for the rest of the year. We're seeing settlements on things like East Tennessee that are favorable. As you know, we've seen the same on Texas Eastern in the past. That's what we were referring to that weren't there at the start of the year. I mentioned that in my spoken comments, how that's being filed with the FERC.
Okay. Thanks, Ray.
Thanks.
Your next question comes from the line of Ben Pham from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning. You've reaffirmed the 5% growth rate beyond 2026. I'm wondering when do you plan to update the market on guidance specifically beyond 2026? I'm also curious what do you think is the right duration timeframe for guidance for North American Pipeline Company?
Yeah. Well, just for clarity, what we said was 5% growth, 2026 plus. Through 2026, through the end of the decade. We feel very confident with that. You know, I think when we put that out, it was March of 14 months ago, March of 2025. We remain confident in that. I'm glad to hear the Street looking to move up those numbers to that 5% type growth rate. Well, we looked beyond 2030. We haven't set out any numbers beyond 2030, but, you know, I expect either in the fall or early spring we'll end up having another investor day and update you at that time.
Just as a reminder, and I think sometimes it gets lost, just since that investor day, which again was about 14 months ago, we have added CAD 17 billion to our sanctioned backlog. If we continue to see that type of stuff, and, you know, all that is growth, through now through 2030 and even a bit into 2031 and 32 if you look at some of the activity. Yeah, it's not just for 2026, it's for 2026 plus, right through 2030.
Okay.
In this environment, you know, giving you guidance out to three years I think would be pretty good. Actually giving you something right out through the end of the decade, I would think is very helpful to investors as well as analysts to come up with their views on the company.
Okay. Got it. Thanks for clarifying that. I always thought it was more of a post-2026 guidance, but I wasn't, I was a bit confused on the end point of that. That's all the way through 2030.
Thanks.
Okay. That's good. Then, the CAD 50 billion of unsanctioned opportunity, I know you mentioned very similar numbers in the past on that, and you've then inserted the CAD 10 billion-CAD 20 billion last quarter, next 2 years. Could you bridge that for us? I'm assuming that's obviously included in that, CAD 50 billion, is there a mix in of some early stage projects in there as well?
Yeah, we're always adding to the pipeline, right? You're right. I mean, you make a good point. In March of 25 it was about CAD 50 billion. We've sanctioned 17, which just tells you how the hopper in that time has easily filled in there, right? You know, everything from higher rate base growth on most of our businesses to power opportunities, that backlog just gets bigger. I think, again, as attitudes change around energy security and the power of North America for exports, I'll be surprised actually if that opportunity set doesn't even get bigger. That's where we're drawing it, those sanction projects from. It's filling up at least at the same rate by which we're sanctioning projects.
Maybe just to add to that then, CAD 50 billion is the environment that we're in. The opportunities that we have, as Greg said, it was CAD 50 billion a year ago, it's still CAD 50 billion even though we've secured a bunch of projects. The CAD 10 billion-CAD 20 billion that we talked about over the next 24 months, I guess now 22 months, is really what we plan to FID in that period of time to give you a sense of what you should see on a ratable basis from us from a FID perspective, pulling from that CAD 50 billion opportunity set, if that helps to clarify it.
Yes, that's very useful color. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Kenny from National Bank. Your line is open.
Thank you. Just back on the robust outlook for crude exports out of the Gulf Coast. I guess the longer this Middle East conflict lasts and the longer, you know, prices at the pump remain elevated in the U.S., the higher the risk of political intervention related to banning or at least capping export levels. I'm just wondering if you might be taking any steps over the near term to protect your franchise operationally. Also if you could remind us of any commercial protections you might have, financially within your contracts at Ingleside.
Yeah, I'll let Colin speak to that. I would be very clear that at least twice, the Secretary of Energy has said that is not something they're looking at, even as we've seen this run up. I think that's a really important perspective. Of course we've just successfully contracted on Gray Oak, which is an import protection as well, obviously. Colin, do you want to speak further to that?
I don't know if there's a lot to add. I agree with everything you're saying. We've, you know, we're in regular contact with the administration. We're, you know, we're well attuned to the alternatives in play here and support and subscribe to the notion that, you know, constraining global exports will hurt, not help the situation here as it's a global commodity. As Greg mentioned, we've got fairly robust contract provisions around the export facilities.
It's a really interesting dynamic, right? Because the U.S. government, I think, has not been shy about projecting power up the Gulf Coast by being the export crude. Remember, much of that Permian crude is what gets exported because the U.S. refiners like the heavier products, which is what we provide out of Canada so importantly. And you're even starting to see some more exports of Canadian crude, modestly, off the Gulf Coast as well. There's no doubt there's a consumer voter element here, but I just don't see this administration changing their view of being able to use energy, frankly, as a geopolitical tool, despite the current conflict over and above military power.
Okay, that's great. I appreciate your comments on that. Then just on the balance sheet, I guess with debt to EBITDA, sitting at the top end of your target range, just wanted to confirm if you're still expecting to remain within the range through 2026. You know, is there now potential, given the sanctioning of more growth CapEx as you've outlined, to see leverage perhaps hop over five times temporarily? If so, the timing of when you might expect to come back down to, say, closer to the midpoint of that four and a half to five times range?
Thanks, Pat. I think it's fair to say that we're still comfortable with the 4.5 to 5 range. We're at the top this quarter for a couple reasons. One is, the FX plays a little bit of a role in that, in that, you know, it was 137 all quarter, but then popped right at the end of the quarter there to be 140, so that moved it a little bit. We also expect it to be a little bit higher at the front end this year given that, the vast majority of our projects come in in the back end of the year. The big projects, things like, Tennessee Ridgeline, T-North Aspen, some of the Sequoia Easter type projects. I think we're still pretty comfortable with it.
You know, for when is it going to come down closer to the midpoint, I think I said a couple quarters ago that we'll probably be in that upper half for the next couple years just because we've got this large build in front of us. Of course, pay the capital we're putting in near the end of 2027 here, and then a pretty large capital coming in in 2028. That should really help to bring those ratios back to kind of that middle point of it. So we're still feeling very comfortable and, you know, the low-risk business model helps with that. All the growth we've been talking about lines up perfectly with that risk return discipline that we've had as an organization.
You know, I like the fact that when we're talking about these capital opportunities, they are, you know, long-term contracts with Gas Transmission assets, long-term contracted Liquids Pipelines. Not having to step outside of our risk reward view to continue to grow the organization. Feeling very comfortable about where we are from a financing perspective.
Okay. That's great. Thanks, Pat. Thanks everybody.
Your final question comes from a line of Manav Gupta from UBS. Your line is open.
Hi, I have two quick questions. First, can you talk about your growing partnership with Meta? Not many midstream companies are out there with 1 gigawatt of capacity with Meta, so if you could talk a little bit about that. Second, there were some news articles floating yesterday that Carney is looking to make easier for projects to proceed in Canada. Sunnova and CNQ have already talked about some of these things on their earnings calls, and basically what they're saying is you can't hold back Canada in the current environment where the world needs crude and oil. I was wondering if you have any views on any policy changes that could expedite for projects in Canada to speed up the development of oil and gas projects over there. Thank you.
Yeah. Well, on the, on the Google or on the Meta piece, I think you'll continue to see that relationship grow. Allen, do you wanna speak to that? Then I'll come back on the oils front.
Yeah, thanks for the question, Manav. On Meta, they've come out and said that they wanna be net zero by 2030, and that 100% of their operation's powered by renewables. Really opens the door for folks with long-term relationships with them to do more with them. You know, we do expect to see more with Meta. We really are excited about the relationship, and I'll just say that I think we've developed a really good trust relationship with them, and that's the foundation for future opportunities. Feel really good there and hopefully we'll see more opportunities going forward.
Yeah. On the project front, look, I think there's been a lot of positive words in Canada and some concrete actions that have been taken. You know, we get a very quick turnaround from the federal government on the final approval for Sunrise, which is critical to LNG. Obviously there's the major project office there and projects in the national interest. I think that's great news and I'm hoping and expecting and taking the government at its word, it's even gonna find ways to shrink down some of those timeframes even for projects like Sunrise. That being said, I'm perfectly aligned with our customers on the other issues that they raise.
Yeah, Canada has an obligation, I think, to serve the world and has the ability to serve the world if it wants to be an energy superpower, and I think they're focused on the right P. We often focus on the pipeline P, but what has to come first is the production P, the permitting P, and then you get the pipelines. I think they're pointing out and making sure that all the policymakers are aware, are aware that without production growth, the infrastructure's kind of irrelevant.
Thank you.
Thank you.
That concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Marlon Samuel for closing remarks.
Great. Thank you, and we appreciate your ongoing interest in Enbridge. As always, our investor relations team is available following the call for any additional questions that you may have. Once again, thank you and have a great day.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.