This conference is being recorded. [Foreign Language] .
Good afternoon. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q1 2025 conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Alison. Please proceed with your presentation.
Thank you, and good afternoon. In discussing our financial and operating performance and responding to your questions during today's call, we may make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on our current estimates and assumptions, many of which are beyond our control and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. A summary of these underlying assumptions, risks, and uncertainties is contained in our securities filings, including our MD&A for Q1 and for the year ending December 31st, 2024, and our current AIF, which are available on Cedar Plus and our website. These forward-looking statements are made as of today's date and, except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any such statements. During today's call, we will also be referencing certain non-IFRS financial measures.
These do not have standardized meanings prescribed by IFRS and should not be construed as alternatives to net income or cash flow from operating activities determined in accordance with IFRS. Management provides these as a complement to IFRS measures to aid in assessing the REIT's performance. These non-IFRS measures are further defined and discussed in our MD&A, which should be read in conjunction with this call. I'll now turn it over to Adam.
Thank you very much, Alison. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our Q1 2025 conference call. We're really pleased with how the year has started. Our first quarter financial results were characterized by continued strength in our operating performance, which was driven by robust leasing activity and the execution of our capital allocation strategy. These results demonstrate how our grocery-anchored retail properties provide insulation from today's macroeconomic uncertainty. Same property, cash NOI, grew by a very strong 5.3% before factoring in lease termination fees and bad debt expense, which had a very small impact. This growth was primarily driven by higher rents. Q1 occupancy matched an all-time high of 96.9%, last set in Q4 of 2019. However, rent inflates are notably higher today than they were then.
In Q1, we surpassed our previous all-time high, setting a new record with an average net rent inflate of CAD 24.23 per sq ft. During Q1, we renewed just over 500,000 sq ft across 98 spaces. Renewal rental rates in year one of the renewal term averaged CAD 24.91 per sq ft, representing a year-one renewal rent increase of 13.6%, which is once again above our long-term average. This included six fixed-rate renewals, which, if excluded, increases our year-one renewal rent to roughly 17%. We also extended our track record of securing meaningful contractual rent escalations to take effect during the renewal terms. In Q1, 74% of our renewed leases included contractual rent escalations, resulting in a renewal rent of nearly 19% when comparing net rent in the last year of the expiring term to the average net rent during the renewal term.
In addition to renewal leasing, we also completed approximately 90,000 sq ft of new leasing across 42 spaces, carrying an average year-one rent of approximately CAD 32 per sq ft. In short, leasing activity continues to be very strong. We see a long runway for rent growth, given that economic rents remain well in excess of both market rents and inflate rents. As most of you know, we are now almost halfway into a three-year strategic plan that we presented to our investors at the beginning of 2024. At its heart, the plan is focused on delivering our primary objectives. These primary objectives are quite simply delivering on a per-unit basis, stability and consistent growth in FFO, growth in net asset value, and absolutely stable, reliable monthly cash distributions to our investors and growth in those distributions over time.
The three-year plan that we outlined for investors was designed to deliver on two key metrics. The first is delivering operating FFO per unit growth of at least 3% on average over the three-year timeframe. The second key metric is achieving a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio that is in the low eight times range by the end of 2026. I'm pleased to say that we remain on track to deliver both targets. Beneath the surface, there are several things that contribute to the achievement of these two key metrics. Most of the assumptions are consistent with those provided at our investor day. However, there are two assumptions that we have updated this quarter. First, over the three-year timeframe, development completions are now expected to be CAD 300 million in total versus CAD 200 million previously. This is a result of us tracking ahead of what we initially expected.
This change positively impacts achieving our key metrics and debt-to-EBITDA specifically. Second, dispositions are now expected to be in the range of CAD 750 million in total over the three-year period versus CAD 1 billion previously. Why did we make this change? Given the increased macro uncertainty, a more appropriate assumption is that it may take a little bit longer to achieve the initial CAD 1 billion of dispositions. We reduced it to CAD 750 million. The business continues to perform exceptionally well, and we remain on track to achieve the operating FFO per unit growth and the debt-to-EBITDA metrics that are the core premise of our three-year plan. Through the first 15 months of the plan, our operating FFO per unit CAGR, excluding several positive but non-recurring items, is approximately 5%. Our debt-to-EBITDA has improved to 8.9 times, or the low nine adjusting for some of those same non-recurring items.
Needless to say, we're very pleased with our results to date. With that, I will pass things over to Neil.
Thanks, Adam, and good afternoon to all of our call participants. Consistent with our usual practice, we have a slide deck available on our website at fcr.ca. In my remarks today, I will make reference to that presentation. Let's start with slide six. FCR generated an operating FFO of CAD 69 million in the first quarter. This was up slightly from CAD 68 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and down from CAD 78 million in the first quarter of last year. On a per-unit basis, Q1 O FFO was CAD 0.321, up slightly from CAD 0.316 in Q4, but down from CAD 0.365 in Q1 2024. In providing context to the year-over-year decline, recall that our Q1 2024 results included a CAD 9.5 million assignment fee in interest and other income.
While the accounting standards required us to include this amount in income, in substance, we view it as being more akin to property disposition proceeds. Excluding this fee from the Q1 results last year would equate to $0.321 in FFO per unit, or a flat growth rate year- over- year. First quarter results from last year also included an abnormally large CAD 5.5 million lease termination fee. Now, lease termination income is a normal part of our business, but this amount was exceptional. If you further adjust for the termination fee, OFFO per unit last year was $0.295 per unit, thus elevating this year's growth rate to 9%. Let's dig a bit further into the results. At the core of FCR's performance in Q1 was same property NOI growth, which, excluding lease termination fees and bad debt expense, was 5.3%, or roughly CAD 5 million.
This exceeded our internal business plan, with the key drivers being higher base rents and improvements in operating cost recoveries. This strong Q1 print reinforces our confidence in FCR's ability to deliver same property NOI growth of approximately 4% on a full-year basis. The year-over-year NOI impact from acquisitions, dispositions, and the non-same property pool was essentially nil on a net basis. Now, in terms of the NOI run rate, I will highlight several property transactions from the quarter. Firstly, on February 3rd, we acquired 1549 Avenue Road, Toronto, for CAD 22 million. This was the final property to complete our large-scale Avenue and Morris development assembly. Secondly, we completed two Toronto property sales during the last week of March, including 895 Morris Avenue West and Sheridan Plaza. Gross proceeds were CAD 72 million, and the assets were sold free and clear.
Both properties were fully leased when sold, and the NOI yield on the aggregate selling price was in the mid to high fours. Therefore, as we move into the second quarter, you should expect to see a small amount of NOI dilution related to the timing and the nature of the Q1 acquisition and disposition activity. Moving down the rest of the FFO statement, Q1 2025 interest and other income included about CAD 500,000 of non-recurring income. If you adjust for this and the CAD 9.5 million assignment fee earned a year ago, then Q1 interest and other income was generally consistent on a year-over-year basis. Further down the page, interest expense, general and administrative expenses, and other expenses were also fairly consistent year- over- year. Slides seven and eight cover key operating metrics, some of which Adam already touched upon.
In short, the theme really remains consistent again through the first quarter, with continued and broad strength across key occupancy, leasing velocity, leasing spreads, and rental rate metrics. Slides nine and 10 provide distribution payout ratio metrics. Commencing with the month of January, FCR's distribution per unit was increased by 3% to an annualized rate of CAD 0.89. Results for the first quarter of 2025 show that FCR's payout ratio was 69% on an OFFO basis and in the mid-80% range when measured on either an AFFO or an ACFO basis. Advancing to slide 11, the March 31st net asset value was CAD 22.06 per unit. This was consistent with CAD 22.05 per unit at December 31st and little changed from CAD 22.10 per unit one year ago. During Q1, fair value gains on investment properties were CAD 2.5 million.
This, of course, is a net number, so I'll provide a bit more color on the two largest components. Firstly, we recorded upward valuation marks of CAD 39 million related mostly to higher NOI assumptions in the DCF models. With strong leasing results over the past several years now, upward valuations related to cash flow modeling have been a recurring theme. Secondly, the biggest offsetting factor in the quarter was a CAD 26 million fair value markdown related principally to Toronto development sites. On this second point, I expect that some of our more avid readers will note that the carrying value of FCR's density and development land was CAD 429 million at March 31st. This is an increase of CAD 52 million from year-end 2024. And there's four major items that contribute to this net increase. The first two I touched upon.
They include the purchase of 1549 Avenue Road, which, of course, is in addition to the value. Then there is the fair value adjustments going the other way. The third component relates to property categorization changes. During Q1, we added two properties to the density and development land category, while we also removed one property. The first addition relates to the Avenue and Morris assembly, which is a 3.7 acre site situated on a prominent corner in a North Toronto neighborhood with fantastic demographics. As mentioned, the assembly was completed during Q1. This followed the approval of our official plan by the OLT in the fourth quarter of 2024, whereby we secured 660,000 sq ft of total density. Currently, the assembly has approximately 61,000 sq ft of existing built form across nine separate properties. These generate a run rate NOI yield of a little under 3% on total value.
Previously, some of the properties were classified as income properties and several as development lands. As of March 31, all nine properties were uniformly categorized as a single development site in our disclosures. The second addition relates to a property located on the island of Montreal. During Q1, we were successful in removing certain lease encumbrances. As such, the value of this site more appropriately reflects its intensification potential versus its income potential. Hence, the property was recategorized to density and development land from stable same property previously. The third reclassification relates to a Greater Vancouver area property, where the change went the other way, from density and development land to stable same property. This is a good news story. For many years, this property has generated a steady rental yield, but our view had been that its intrinsic value principally related to its future residential intensification potential.
However, with significant growth in retail market rents over time, we recently signed a long-term lease with a national grocer for this property. I might add, we did so at a rental rate and with escalators that we would not have envisioned a few years ago. While the new grocer lease will not take effect for approximately two years, the timing of which is actually aligned with the current tenant's lease expiry, it is now clear that the property's value is most appropriately reflected by the capitalized income. Hence the reclassification. Turning next to capital investments, as outlined on slide 12. During Q1, CAD 72 million of capital was invested into the business. This includes the CAD 22 million acquisition I mentioned a few minutes ago, along with CAD 15 million into the operating portfolio and CAD 35 million into development activities.
The most significant development spend during the quarter related to our Youge & Roselawn development, the Humbertown Shopping Center redevelopment, where phases two and three are now underway, as well as advancing our small number of active condominium projects. Slide 13 summarizes key financing activities. There were no significant financings in the quarter, but FCR did continue to carry sizable cash balances, totaling CAD 152 million. You should expect to see this cash drawn down over the next three months. For instance, on April 14th, we used CAD 75 million to repay a maturing term loan that had an interest rate of 3.35%. On June 2nd, we also expect to pay out a CAD 56 million maturing mortgage that carries an interest rate of 3.26%.
With the yield curve once again upward sloping, we're unlikely to carry the same sort of substantial cash balances that we did through much of the last two years. To wrap up, slides 14, 15, and 16 summarize some of FCR's key credit metrics and the debt maturity profile. FCR is in a strong financial position. We end Q1 with more than CAD 800 million of liquidity in the form of cash and our underlying revolvers. FCR's unencumbered asset pool had a total value of CAD 6.3 billion, representing nearly 70% of total assets. The secured debt-to-total asset ratio remained low at 16%. Moreover, floating rate debt was only 3% of total, and the debt-to-EBITDA multiple continues to trend lower.
FCR has only one sizable refinancing to address through the balance of this year, when our CAD 300 million Series S senior unsecured debenture matures during the third quarter. This concludes my remarks, and I'm now pleased to turn the session over to Jordy for his comments.
Thank you, Neil, and good afternoon. Today, I'm going to provide you with a brief update on our investments, development, and entitlement activities. In his remarks, Neil mentioned our sale of two Toronto properties, including 895 Lawrence Avenue West, a 30,000 sq ft unanchored income-producing retail center, and Sheridan Pl aza, a 170,000 sq ft center located at Jane and Wilson. I will add to his comments by noting that the aggregate selling price of these assets equates to more than a 20% premium to their IFRS carrying values.
With respect to new transactions subsequent to the quarter, we entered into a binding agreement to sell a property located on the island of Montreal for approximately CAD 33 million. While pursuant to our agreement, certain details about this residential development site are still subject to confidentiality, we can say that the sale price equates to a mid 2% yield based on the current income in place, and it represents more than a 25% premium to our Q1 2025 IFRS value. The deal is now firm and slated for a June 2025 close. I should also note that we're actively working on several other transactions that are similarly consistent with our strategy. I look forward to updating you on this activity in future quarters. We're busy advancing our two active mixed-use developments as well. At Yonge & Roselawn, we remain on schedule and on budget.
At the end of Q1, the project decking had been installed in preparation for the first floor slab pour. We own 50% of this 636-unit residential rental building with 65,000 sq ft of retail space and serve as the development manager. 75% of the project costs are awarded, with a further 12% being tendered or under negotiation. This past quarter, City Planning issued the revised Notice of Approval Conditions, permitting an additional four stories in our 24 and 30-story tower plans now contemplate. While still several years through occupancy, we have very strong demand for the 65,000 sq ft of large and smaller format retail space. Construction of our 1071 King Street West development project in Liberty Village is also on schedule and on budget. You'll recall we own 25% of this 298-unit 225,000 sq ft purpose-built residential rental project, which includes 6,000 sq ft of at-grade retail space.
Today, 81% of the project costs have been awarded, and the structure has now reached grade. Moving to retail redevelopment. Last quarter, I touched on the large gap between economic rents and market rents for new-build commercial retail space. Specifically, the required rent to rationalize the construction of ground-up retail space is significantly higher than current market rent. This continues to limit supply of new retail space. At the same time, however, it has created an opportunity for FCR to invest capital into the redevelopment of our existing retail properties and achieve very attractive returns. These redevelopments take many forms. The ongoing redevelopment of Humbertown Shopping Center in Toronto is a tremendous example of this type of investment opportunity. In the fourth quarter of 2024, after completing the project's first phase, we entered into a new long-term market rent fully net lease with Loblaw .
They will remain on site in an enlarged premises that we have created by consolidating their former space with 13,000 sq ft of contiguous CRU space. This expanded Loblaw store sits in the second phase of our redevelopment, which commenced this past quarter. Phase III is the final phase of the redevelopment. This phase, which includes a newly created 20,000 sq ft Shoppers Drug Mart, TD Bank, and Scotiabank, amongst other tenants, also commenced this quarter. On completion of the redevelopment, expected in 2026, we will have removed or converted to leasable all of the enclosed common area of the center. In so doing, we will have grown the gross leasable area of Humbertown Shopping Center by 17,000 sq ft, and much of the existing leasable area will become much more valuable as a result of our improvements.
In total, we will invest CAD 47 million in the redevelopment of Humbertown and will benefit from unlevered returns exceeding 7% on this invested capital. Another smaller but impactful example of our execution of this growing opportunity set is Cliffc rest Plaza. Cliffc rest is an 80,000 sq ft center located at Kingston Road and McCowan in Toronto. The center is a Shoppers Drug Mart, LCBO, and a Dollarama, along with select other smaller national and local tenants. A notable absence in terms of merchandising mix for the center was a grocery store, and that changed last quarter. We entered into a long-term lease with Loblaw for an urban No Frills store. We were able to accomplish this by first securing control of 10,000 sq ft of contiguous CRU space in the center. The No Frills store opened in Q1 of this year.
The gross rental rate they pay is at market, which is 70% higher than the former in-place rent. Also, unlike the former tenants that the No Frills has replaced, the new Loblaw lease is fully net and includes annual escalators. Moving west at Staples Lougheed in Burnaby within the greater Vancouver area, Staples occupies 27,000 of the 30,000 sq ft center. Their lease expires in 2027 with no options to extend the term. Given the population growth, increase in density on the surrounding property, and its proximity to the SkyTrain, we believed high-density residential was the highest and best use. A number of years ago, we submitted a rezoning application to permit 470,000 sq ft of residential density. While this form of density remained valuable in Burnaby, over the last several years, there has been a significant growth in market rents for retail space in the node.
Today, based upon the rent that we can secure, the site is more valuable as a retail development site. Accordingly, and as Neil had mentioned in his formal remarks, this quarter we entered into a long-term unconditional lease with Loblaw for the entire property. Coinciding with Staples' expiry, the new lease will not take effect until 2027. However, this recently categorized Staples same property asset will see meaningful income growth over the contractual rental period of the new Loblaw lease. What's more, the discounted value of this new Loblaw income stream is greater than the value of the site as high-density residential. Another example of a retail redevelopment that we've undertaken is a property located in a very attractive neighborhood called Bridgeland, very close to downtown Calgary. We knew this half-acre site had medium-term redevelopment potential and purchased it with that view in 2018.
At the time of purchase, it was tenanted by a Molson-owned brew house. With Molson vacating the site on the expiration of its lease, we were able to enter into a long-term lease with Shoppers Drug Mart to construct a new 18,000 sq ft store. Demolition of the former building commenced in the first quarter, and we expect to provide Shoppers possession of its new premises in the next 12 months. With respect to entitlements, in 2024, we secured approvals for 2 million sq ft of incremental density on our properties. In 2025, we anticipate we will receive approvals for an additional 1.8 million sq ft of incremental density. During this year, we also expect to submit rezoning applications for a further 1 million sq ft of incremental density.
To date, netting out the density we've already sold, we have submitted for entitlements on approximately 18 million sq ft of incremental density. This represents 77% of our 23 million sq ft pipeline. Once zoning permissions are secured, they provide FCR with great optionality. As I think it's clear, we remain focused on the successful execution of our objectives. Thank you all for your time today and your continued support of FCR. Operator, we can now open it up to questions.
Thank you. We will now take questions from the telephone lines. If you have a question, please press star one. You may cancel your question at any time by pressing star two. Please press star one at this time. If you have a question, there will be a brief pause while participants register for questions. We thank you for your patience.
Our first question is from Lorne Kalmar from Desjardins. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good afternoon. Just quickly on the disposition target, obviously, I think it's pretty understandable getting revised down. The market for land has not exactly been hot. Based on what you guys are seeing and what you know, do you think there's any risk of it getting revised down further by a material amount, or you're fairly confident that this CAD 750 million by 2026 is achievable?
Hey, Lorne Kalmar . We're fresh hot off the presses with the CAD 750 million, so we're going to stick with that for now. There are several points that I think are worth making with respect to the change in our disposition assumption. I know you've met a keen interest in it, so I will make a couple of points.
First, the world has changed over the last year and a half when we made our initial assumptions, but particularly over the last quarter. Macro uncertainty and volatility are clearly up. We recognize the macro environment is something that has an impact on our disposition program and also happens to be out of our control. All we really wanted to do is be realistic, and that it may take a little longer to achieve the CAD 1 billion of dispositions. Second, the impact is strictly timing. I really want to stress that. We're very confident in our ability to monetize properties over time and at premium pricing levels, and we've established a pretty solid track record in doing so. We just think it may take a bit longer given the macro environment.
Third, and this is the most relevant point, is that the impact of this change in assumptions on the two key metrics. To your point, this is something to keep in mind if the assumptions change down the road, which at this stage we are saying it is CAD 750 million. If they do change, it is really important to keep in mind that the change we have just made on the two key metrics from our disposition program, and along with other activities, all of these are designed to achieve two things: operating FFO objectives that we laid out, and on that front, very little impact from the change that we have made, all of which is entirely offset by strong operating results. The second is our debt- to- EBITDA. The change in dispositions has a more pronounced impact on debt- to- EBITDA.
We left that unchanged too, and that's because the change to dispositions has been largely offset by both strong operating results and our expectations around the acceleration of development completions. The bottom line, Lorne, is that we're very pleased with our disposition progress to date. Most importantly, and this is where I think those who view this change to our disposition assumptions negatively have missed the mark, is that we believe that we will achieve the two key objectives of our plan, being operating FFO per unit growth and debt- to- EBITDA with less dispositions in the three-year timeframe. We think that's a good thing.
Okay. That's fair enough and kind of tough to disagree with you there. Maybe I'll switch over to the operating side of things. Obviously, you guys are constantly talking to tenants.
Have you noticed any changes in behaviors or leasing timelines as a result of the broader macro uncertainty?
Yeah, that's a very good question. And something as a management group, we have a heightened sensitivity to. What that means is we've been speaking to our frontline leasing staff more frequently. The good news is we can tell you from their perspective, they see absolutely no change to the depth of demand, the way lease negotiations are progressing, the type of interest we have. No change from three months ago, six months ago, 12 months ago. As you know, that's a good thing because demand has been very robust. Certainly something we're paying close attention to.
Fortunately, what we can tell you certainly as of today is that we've seen absolutely no indication of any change on that front as a result of the increased macro uncertainty.
Okay. That's great to hear. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much, Lorne.
Thank you. Once again, please press star one at this time for any questions or comments. The following question is from Goddard Marter from Green Street. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Just in terms of the markets that you're in, are you somehow seeing any cracks amongst the retail tenants currently, just given the broader macroeconomic uncertainty?
Thanks very much for the question. Firstly, we're not seeing any cracks from the macro uncertainty. Two, we're seeing remarkable consistency across geographic markets and neighborhoods that we're in.
There's no discernible difference to how our properties are performing from whether it's in Vancouver, Edmonton, or Calgary, or Montreal, or Toronto, or Ottawa. Actually, remarkable consistency. It's actually been that way for many, many years. To your point, we're not in a normal environment now, but we can tell you that from that perspective, we have seen that consistency remain in place.
Okay. If you're looking at weighted average lease terms on renewals, I believe in the past that you've alluded to, you mentioned the fact that those lease terms are increasing as you're signing on tenants given the demand. Is that something that's expected to happen over the rest of the year as well?
Yeah, it's a good question. The short answer is we're not sure.
Our long-term average was somewhere in the range of five years in terms of your typical renewal term. The last two quarters, and I would not necessarily say two quarters makes a trend, but it has been two quarters now where that has been closer to six years or about a year longer. We are okay with that because we are comfortable with the rents in place. As you have seen from one of the two renewal lift metrics we disclosed, we are getting above-average contractual rent growth. From our perspective, we see the same things as our tenants. Great fundamentals. Our real estate is expected to become more and more valuable over time. Market rents are expected to grow. Obviously, the longer you lock in a lease term, the longer it will take you to reset your rents to market. That is something we are certainly cognizant of.
If we have the right tenant in place with the right starting rent and an escalator throughout the renewal term we are happy with, we have been happy to move from a five-year typical term to something that is six or six and a half years. In terms of how the balance of negotiations go, I would say it is something that we typically do not dive to. To be frank, we remain flexible on it because it is very case-specific.
Okay. Great. Thank you for that. I will turn it back to the operator.
Thank you. Thank you for your question.
Thank you. The following question is from Sam Damiani from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good afternoon. Just wondering what your thoughts are about sort of pending economic slowdown if it happens and how it might impact the tenant base this time around compared to past slowdowns or recessions.
Just wondering if you see a different mix of the impact between larger national retailers versus smaller local ones. Are you seeing any of your any categories of your tenant base starting to feel the pressure of less confidence or less consumer spending?
Yeah. Again, very good question, Sam. It's something that we've talked a lot about as a management group because we do think there's clearly a heightened risk of an economic slowdown. The short answer is today we're seeing no impact at the property level, whether it's large national or local tenants. We take some comfort in the fact that previous downturns have demonstrated FCR's resiliency. There's very little correlation with previous recessions in our key operating metrics. For example, the last recession we had in Canada was in the 2008, 2009 period. 2009, same property NOI growth for FCR was north of 5%.
Renewal lists were well into the double digits, and occupancy held in around 96%. That being said, every downturn is different, and this one certainly has its unique characteristics. Something else that has become pretty evident to the management group is that the local tenant base across our portfolio today is the strongest local tenant base we've ever had. We went through a bit of a quick cleansing in the second quarter of 2020. COVID really flushed through any of the marginal local operators. In many cases, we replaced them with local operators for merchandising purposes. The ones that were leasing space at that time were very, very strong, established businesses, well-capitalized, really well-run operations. We are feeling pretty good about the tenant base today, notwithstanding we do think there's obviously the risk for an economic downturn if materialized. That usually hits discretionary retail the most.
As you know, that's a segment of retail that is not abundant in our business by any stretch. We have focused on the necessity end of the spectrum. In Canada, getting that type of space has been very tough. Our tenants are planning years and decades in advance. We are quite optimistic that even if a downturn materializes, our operating metrics will continue to hold in very strongly.
That's helpful. Thank you. Last one for me, just on the Yorkville note, just wondering if there's any updates to share on leasing activity or investment plans in that cluster of properties in the near term.
Yeah. Leasing's been pretty good. We have had a little bit of churn.
We were able to have one of our tenants, which is Versace, terminate their lease early with a payment to First Capital while we simultaneously leased that space to the adjacent retailer on a new blend and extend that created a lot of value for the property. We are dealing with a number of other new tenants in the node, but Yorkville is in a very good spot as a node from a demand perspective relative to the last few years. Not much more to report there. In terms of investment activity that you touched on, we think there is a likelihood that some of the properties we own in Yorkville over, let's say, the course of our three-year plan will be ready for sale. You should not be surprised if we monetize some of them. Great real estate. We need a big price.
If we can get that, then we think it is in our investors' best interest to do that and reallocate the capital.
Great. Thank you. I will turn it back.
Thank you, Sam.
Thank you. The following question is from Brad Sturges from Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Hey there. You touched on it already, but I am just curious to get some more thoughts on it. As you have talked about your running ahead of plan on the three-year objectives, and you have made a change to your disposition program, I guess the question is, what kind of cushion do you think you still have to hit your sort of FFO per unit growth objectives and your debt- to- EBITDA if, in fact, you think it is prudent or necessary to further reduce the disposition cadence or, let's say, leasing fundamentals moderate a bit from here?
Yeah.
Look, I mean, you're referencing a cushion. We're telling you what we think the realistic outcome is based on our forecast today. I wouldn't read into that that there's a cushion. That's what we expect to happen. There's a lot of moving parts. If our expectations change in the future, we will certainly let you know. This is our best guess today. Overall, the business is performing very well. We're a lot less fussed about disposition volume. We're really focused on driving operating FFO per unit growth that exceeds 3%. We are very focused on continuing to improve our debt-to-EBITDA down to the low end. That's what will determine success for us, not disposition volume, not development completion, not several of the other supporting metrics. We do think it's important to articulate our current expectations and couple of changes this quarter.
If that happens in the future, we will certainly let you know.
I appreciate that. Just, I guess, thinking about the current environment for asset sales, just what you are seeing in the private market in terms of the depth of the buyer pool, the composition, has that essentially changed, I guess, in the last month or so since Liberation Day?
Yeah. It has become a bit tougher. That is what resulted in us taking our expectation down. We did not take it down to zero. Hopefully, Jordan gave you the sense that we are still active because we are still active. Post-quarter end, we have got a great deal over the line, which is that Montreal development site. There are others that Jordan has good traction on and the team have good traction on. We hope they materialize.
Look, this has been a tough environment since we've started. We've had a lot of success, and we've sold assets that fit the criteria of what we said we would sell and at big prices. We're just concerned with the state of the world today that it just may take a little bit longer. The market's not dead. It's just not as good as it was.
I appreciate that for the comments. I'll turn it back.
Thank you.
Thank you. The following question is from Pammi Bir from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Hi, everyone. Just on the CAD 300 million of development completions, can you remind us what range of yield you expect and how does that yield sort of the spread to acquisitions? How would that compare?
Hi, Pammi. It's Neil. It's a good question.
Maybe I should have addressed the business upfront. Two things. First is the change in the assumption or the expectation, rather. At our February 2024 Investor Day and subsequently, the CAD 200 million of expected development completions included approximately CAD 100 million of income property development and redevelopment coming online. In 2026 specifically, it included the delivery of Edenbridge Condos at Humbertown. At FCR's 50% share, the estimated gross proceeds from the Edenbridge closings should be just over CAD 100 million. As many of you know, we also have a 35% interest in the 400 King Street Condos in Toronto. For purposes of the three-year plan, we had been assuming that those condo closings would occur in early 2027. The project is continuing to advance quite nicely on time and on budget.
We have now assumed that FCR will receive approximately 60% of the total proceeds from those closings in late 2026, with the balance still falling into 2027. That is the lion's share, actually by a very wide margin, of the increase in development deliveries to CAD 300 million from CAD 200 million previously. More specifically, your question relates to the yield on IPP developments and redevelopments. In round numbers, that is about a 7% yield.
The 7% yield, I think, was what you had expected at the beginning of last year at the Investor Day. The change really just is on the condos at 400 King. On 400 King and Edenbridge, how much of the, what sort of gains or residential gains do you expect for that to contribute to EBITDA?
Yeah, as you know, Pammi, we talked about this at our Investor Day as well.
We have specifically excluded those from our baseline OFFO per unit objective of growing by at least 3% on average over the three-year timeframe. We've actually not quantified specifically what the future profits from those deliveries are at this point.
But they are included in your debt-to-EBITDA metric, though. You will be including the profits in the EBITDA.
Yes. They are included in EBITDA. But I would say relative to our, call it, CAD 430 million run rate, they are not that sizable.
Got it. That's it for me. Thanks very much.
Thank you, Pammi.
Thank you. The following question is from Matt Kornack from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, guys. Just wondering if the uncertainty in the market, do you think that will flush out any potential opportunities for you guys that you wouldn't have otherwise thought you'd be able to get access to?
Or are these assets pretty precious to the current holders of them?
Yeah. Look, if we're talking grocery-anchored retail, that's certainly an asset type that certainly on a relative basis has become more attractive to investors. And when you look at the owners of the majority of the types of assets we own, it's hard. There hasn't been much that's traded, especially since interest rates started rising in 2022. And the fundamentals are really strong. And all of us that own these types of assets understand that. So hard to imagine, but we'll see. We'll see what unfolds.
Fair enough. And then just on occupancy, you mentioned it's an all-time high. Is there any more room to move that? Or is there some structural aspect to it or strategic aspect to the vacancy?
Yeah. I'd say it's more strategic.
We have always been at the more proactive end of changing our tenant mix, maximizing the merchandising mix, making sure we have the best operator within a desired use category. We have said this is not a portfolio that one should expect 99% occupancy. If we do that, we are missing on rent growth opportunities. We are pretty full today, but look, the environment is really strong. We will see. Hopefully, maybe we can push through the current 96.9% all-time high.
Fair enough. Thanks, Adam.
Thank you. That is all the time we have for questions. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Alison.
Thanks, everyone, for attending the meeting. We appreciate your support. Good afternoon.
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