First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX:FCR.UN)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Nov 1, 2023

Operator

Good afternoon. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the First Capital REIT Q3 Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question and answer session. At that time, if you have a question, please press star one on your device's keypad. I would now like to turn the conference over to Alison. Please proceed with your presentation.

Alison Harnick
SVP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary, First Capital REIT

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. In discussing our financial and operating performance and in responding to your questions during today's call, we may make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on our current estimates and assumptions, many of which are beyond our control, and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. A summary of these underlying assumptions, risks, and uncertainties is contained in our securities filings, including our Q3 MD&A, our MD&A for the year ended 31 December 2022, and our current AIF, which are available on SEDAR and our website. These forward-looking statements are made as of today's date, and except as required by securities law, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any such statements.

During today's call, we will also be referencing certain financial measures that are non-IFRS measures. These do not have standardized meanings prescribed by IFRS and should not be construed as alternatives to net income or cash flow from operating activities determined in accordance with IFRS. Management provides these measures as a complement to IFRS measures to aid in assessing the REIT's performance. These non-IFRS measures are further defined and discussed in our MD&A, which should be read in conjunction with this conference call. I'll now turn the call over to Adam.

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

Thank you very much, Alison. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our conference call. Overall, Q3 was a good quarter. Neil will provide details on the key metrics, while my remarks will speak to some of the things we are seeing in the business that will have more of an impact on our future. Earlier this month, we held an internal conference for our real estate services team, which is comprised of our property operations and leasing personnel. To kick off the conference, I had the opportunity to lead a discussion on the secular change underway that is impacting the fundamentals for the space we own. Starting with inflation, both with respect to replacement costs as well as tenant sales. Replacement costs have escalated significantly over the past few years.

Today, we estimate they are roughly 50% higher than the market value of the necessity-based retail space FCR owns. This dynamic will continue to keep new supply effectively muted, as has been the case for several years now. The space our tenants occupy is more valuable today than ever before on a replacement cost basis. Secondly, FCR's tenant sales have been positively impacted by inflation. Just as important, margins have generally been protected across our tenant categories. Higher sales with stable margins means that tenant rent-paying capability has improved. Next, we discuss Canada's robust population growth. The neighborhoods in which FCR's properties are located continue to attract a significant share of this growth. The lack of supply, coupled with higher population, continues to decrease the retail square footage per capita in our trade areas.

Now, to bring this all together, inflation has increased replacement costs and increased tenant sales, while margins have largely been protected. This significantly improves FCR's tenants' rent-paying capability, even as rental rates rise. The population of the trade areas we operate are also growing significantly, which increases the customer base of our tenants, and next to no new supply has or will be created absent exceptional rental rate growth. These factors underpin the fundamentals of the grocery-anchored, necessity-based retail properties we own, and that is a good segue into our Q3 results. Occupancy remains in the range of full at 96%, with some positively impactful vacant spaces to come online in the near future. Some of those are at our One Bloor East property. Last quarter, we unexpectedly got back 40,000 sq ft of space previously occupied by Nordstrom Rack.

I'm pleased to share that we have entered into a long-term lease with Altea for an upscale wellness and fitness concept that is very well-suited for the area. They will occupy the entire second level of the former Nordstrom space with a ground floor entrance totaling 32,000 sq ft. We have strong demand for the remaining 8,000 sq ft of the former Nordstrom space, which is located on the ground floor at the hard corner of Yonge and Bloor. We expect to share good news on that space soon. It's clear at this point, current market rents are significantly higher than the Nordstrom rent set a decade ago. Around the One Bloor East, beyond the former Nordstrom space, the property had 20,000 sq ft of available space, all of which fronts Bloor Street.

We're thrilled to announce that all of the space has been leased to two tenants, the larger being Nike for a flagship location. We're making great progress on leasing opportunities in other properties as well. Consistent with the strong fundamentals I touched on, our leasing pipeline is deep. This strength in leasing will continue to benefit FCR as we navigate through some of the macro headwinds that are out of our control, such as interest rates. We continue to take a proactive approach to expense management while maintaining a high-performance culture. This is not new to us. Our past includes a major restructuring that reduced our headcount by 20%. Over time, we've also right-sized our executive leadership team, reducing it from nine to six, and there are many other expense management initiatives we've undertaken. During the Q3, we incurred nearly CAD a million of severance costs.

These costs will have a payback period of less than one year. Our optimization plan continues to progress well and remains well on track. Downey will provide some color on our recent transactions, both during and subsequent to the quarter. In total, we're now at CAD 517 million of dispositions under the plan at an average yield of less than 3% and an average premium to pre-mark IFRS carrying values equal to 14%. This progress is a result of the outstanding work and incredible execution by our investments team in a market that's become less constructive since we started a year ago. But they continue to find the right buyer for each asset, which has been a lot of work, but has resulted in numerous transactions at very strong pricing.

We continue to surface unrecognized value that we have created in numerous low-yielding assets, in which we have seen our short to medium-term value-enhancing goals achieved. We have another wave of properties in which our rezonings have or will be imminently secured and will contribute to a future batch of asset sales under our plan. These include our Staples Lougheed property in Burnaby and 801 York Mills in Toronto, among numerous others. The sale of the properties under our plan have the rare and impactful effect of improving both our balance sheet and our earnings or FFO per unit at the same time. This is a key differentiator for FCR, particularly in an environment of higher interest rates. It's also a testament to the expertise and hard work of our development team in continuing to successfully build and execute our entitlement program.

Speaking of higher interest rates, the significant increase in long bond yields by approximately 75 basis points during the quarter is not helpful for stable IPP values. Now, it is true that transaction volumes remain very limited, but that does not mean IFRS cap rates should be unaffected. Accordingly and responsibly in our view, we adjusted our average in-place cap rate for IPP assets by 30 basis points. Neil will cover this further in his remarks. I'll importantly point out, though, that the assets in our optimization plan are generally not stable IPP properties, and therefore, these were not subject to any appreciable fair value markdowns. In fact, the assets that remained in the optimization plan saw a modest net fair value increase of CAD 12 million during the quarter. Turning to our environmental and climate-related activities.

During the quarter, we received GRESB sector leader status in the development benchmark in the North American retail peer group with a score of 90, and we ranked second in the GRESB Standing Investments Benchmark in the listed Canadian retail centers peer group with a score of 82. To close my remarks today, on the social side, I am pleased to note that the FCR Thriving Neighborhoods Foundation team raised more than CAD 220,000 for Kids Help Phone through the foundation's second annual Commercial Real Estate Softball Classic, held this September. This brings our total fundraising for Kids Help Phone to over CAD 400,000. I'd like to thank all of the FCR team members and our real estate friends and partners for coming together to support such an important cause. With that, I will now pass things over to Neil.

Neil Downey
EVP of Enterprise Strategies and CFO, First Capital REIT

Thank you, Adam, and good afternoon to all of our call participants. As is customary, we have an accompanying conference call presentation available on our website at fcr.ca. In my prepared remarks today, I will make several references to that presentation. Overall, we're very pleased with the underlying operating and financial performance of the business again through the Q3. Both were in line to slightly better than our internal expectations. Referencing slide six of the presentation, Q3 2023 funds from operations of CAD 68.6 million increased by CAD 2 million year-over-year. FFO per unit was CAD 0.32 for the quarter. This was an increase of 4% from the CAD 0.31 earned in the Q3 of 2022. Similarly, excluding other gains, losses, and expense items, quarterly FFO per unit also increased by 4%.

Q3 results from last year included net revenue and expense items that elevated FFO by nearly 0.01 per unit. Similarly, the Q3 2023 results included items that benefited FFO to the tune of CAD 4 million, or approximately CAD 0.02 per unit. I'll touch on these in a moment. Let's walk through the components of FFO. To begin with, Q3 2023 net operating income of CAD 109.3 million was in line with the CAD 109.5 million in the prior year, and it increased by CAD 2.5 million sequentially from the Q2. Lost NOI related to property dispositions was CAD 4.8 million year-over-year, and CAD 1.9 million quarter-over-quarter. Q3 NOI included a bad debt recovery of CAD 1.2 million.

More than 80% of this related to a specific tenant, where we reached an agreement with respect to rent payments. This recovery did not impact the same property statistics, where growth was 1.2% year-over-year or 1.4% excluding bad debt expense or recovery. In this regard, the organic growth rate for the quarter was lower than our more normal annual expectations. This was mostly due to the 40,000 sq ft of vacancy at One Bloor, caused by Nordstrom's early departure in June. Carrying this sizable and notably high cost vacancy hit Q3 organic growth by approximately 140 basis points. Moving further down the FFO statement, Q3 interest and other income was CAD 9.5 million. This included CAD 3.8 million related to a legal settlement for foregone rent.

Excluding the settlement income, the year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter increases were less than CAD 1 million, and they were principally related to higher interest income on recent cash balances. Corporate expenses were CAD 9.9 million in Q3 2023. This was similar to the prior quarter and CAD 1 million lower year over year. As Adam noted, Q3 corporate expenses included CAD 900,000 of employee severance and restructuring costs, incurred as part of our ongoing efforts to ingrain a performance-oriented culture while proactively managing expenses. The prior year figure included similar charges totaling approximately CAD 1.5 million. Finally, and this is really just a reminder for those who look at year-over-year growth rates, abandoned transaction costs in the Q3 of 2022 included a CAD 3 million purchase deposit taken to income after a planned property sale did not close.

Referencing Slides nine and 10, FCR's operating performance metrics were solid, and leasing in particular was strong. The portfolio rounded at September 30 with an occupancy of 95.9%. This was unchanged from Q2, as tenant openings were equivalent to closures. Occupancy was up 20 basis points year-over-year, and that's notwithstanding the fact that the portfolio continues to carry 60-70 basis points of vacancy related to a former 91,000 sq ft Walmart store in Edmonton, which just closed in June, and the former Nordstrom space I just mentioned. Q3 renewal leasing volume was 477,000 sq ft, generally consistent with the prior quarter. Lease renewal spreads in the quarter were affected at a strong average increase of 12.4%.

With these conditions at hand, the September 30 average in-place portfolio rental rate per square foot reached CAD 23.08. That's a new all-time high. Slides 11 and 12 provide distribution payout ratio metrics. I'd say these are mostly for informational purposes, and they show how we view and measure the cash generation and sustaining capital expenditure requirements of the business. For calendar 2023, we continue to expect approximately CAD 40 million of sustaining CapEx, including leasing costs. Advancing to Slide 13, the REIT's net asset value per unit at 30 September was CAD 21.26. This represents a decline of 8% from June 30's CAD 23.13. In this regard, the overarching theme across financial markets through the Q3 was a sizable increase in bond yields.

As a specific case in point, the 10-year government of Canada bond yield increased by 75 basis points from June to September, ending the quarter at 4.30 - 4.03%. That's a 22% increase in interest rates a nd the effects on our property valuation models were broad-based, in the form of increasing cap rates and discount rates. In aggregate, yield adjustments were made to more than 70% of the portfolio by value, and the portfolio's weighted average cap rate increased by 30 basis points during the quarter, ending at 5.6%. On a standalone basis, these yield changes resulted in a Q3 net fair value decrease of CAD 457 million.

Other factors provided for net fair value increases of CAD 24 million, and hence, the overall net fair value decrease for the quarter was CAD 433 million, or approximately CAD 2 per unit. Providing an update on capital deployment, as summarized on slide 14, we invested CAD 34 million in Q3 into future income-producing properties and residential development, and CAD 12 million into portfolio CapEx and leasing costs. As we look forward for the balance of this year, we currently anticipate calendar 2023 development CapEx of approximately CAD 140 million. Finishing up with slides 15 through 17, you will find details related to key financings, debt metrics, and liquidity. There's three key points of note. Firstly, Q3 net debt was CAD 4.14 billion.

This is a decline of more than CAD 50 million during the quarter and more than CAD 300 million year over year. Secondly, FCR's trailing Q4 EBITDA increased slightly, and in combination with the lower net debt, the net debt to EBITDA multiple decreased to 10.1x from 10.9x one year ago. Trailing EBITDA continues to bear the burden of activist-related costs from earlier this year, and we won't fully lap those until the Q1 of 2024. Ex these costs, net debt to EBITDA was 9.9 times at September thirtieth. T hirdly, I'd state that FCR's liquidity and financial strength simply remains excellent.

At quarter end, the REIT had CAD $6 billion of unencumbered assets and nearly CAD $1 billion of available liquidity, comprised of CAD $800 million of revolving credit facilities that were completely undrawn and CAD $193 million of cash. Now, subsequent to quarter end, in late October specifically, there were several important financing events. Firstly, FCR's CAD $250 million unsecured revolving credit facility reached its 31 October maturity date. Prior to the maturity, we extended and essentially divided that credit into two pieces through a new CAD $100 million unsecured revolving credit facility that matures in April 2025, and through a new CAD $150 million VA-based term loan. We entered into interest rate swaps to fix the cost on the term loan for five years at an all-in rate of just under 6%.

In round figures, this was 100 basis points inside the indicated funding costs of placing a new five-year senior unsecured debenture. Also, on this 30 October maturity date, we repaid our CAD 300 million Series Q senior unsecured debentures. Funds for the repayment were provided by the new term loan that I just mentioned, with the balance drawn from FCR's sizable cash balances, which had been accumulating due to asset dispositions under the optimization plan. F inally, late in the quarter, we also upsized an existing CAD 100 million revolving credit facility to CAD 150 million of availability. In conjunction with that upsizing, we extended the maturity date by 1 year to 31 August 2025.

If you take all of those October financing events into account, we addressed a notable debt maturity profile, we extended the term, and we maintained a pro forma liquidity posture of approximately CAD 750 million d for context, that liquidity roughly equals the total value of all of FCR's debt maturities through the end of the Q1 of 2025. I'll now turn the session to Jordan Robins to provide some commentary on our optimization plan and our entitlements program.

Jordan Robins
EVP and COO, First Capital REIT

Thanks, Neil, and good afternoon. Today, I'm going to provide you with a brief update on our enhanced capital allocation and portfolio optimization plan and the advancements we've made on our entitlement line. This past quarter, we sold CAD 114 million of previously disposed assets. Subsequently, in October, we entered into binding agreements to sell an additional CAD 58 million of income-producing and development assets, bringing the total announced sales under the plan to CAD 517 million. The aggregate proceeds from all of these sales represent a meaningful premium to our pre-market IFRS NAV. Included amongst the assets for which we have a binding agreement to sell is Sterling Retail. This property is a single-tenant, 30,000-square-foot space.

It is leased to Save-On-Foods, who operate a store on the ground floor of a residential condominium located in the Kerrisdale neighborhood in Vancouver. The purchaser waived all of their conditions in October, and on closing at the end of this month, they will settle the purchase on an all-cash basis. Subsequent to Q3, we also entered into an unconditional agreement with Woodbourne's newly formed build-to-own fund. We've agreed to sell them a further 25% interest in our Yonge and Roselawn development at a price slightly higher than our original sale price of CAD 225 a foot. You'll recall, in December of 2022, we had sold an initial 25% interest to Bowinvest, for whom Woodbourne acts as custodian. Our objective is to ultimately sell down our remaining interest to 25% while retaining our co-role as development manager.

Since the initial 25% sale, we've made meaningful progress with respect to the development of the property. The historic facade retention and demolition activities have been completed, and a majority of the 149 geothermal boreholes have been drilled and tested. Shoring has commenced, and site plan approval is imminent. We have determined that three additional stories can be added to each tower, resulting in approximately 50,000 sq ft of incremental gross floor area. Initial discussions with city staff with respect to this additional density have been extremely positive, and we intend on filing a minor variance application in the next 30 days. To the extent we do secure this additional density, our agreements for both the Woodbourne and the Bowinvest sale contemplate an increase to the purchase price to reflect this additional density. We've continued to advance our entitlement ladder as well.

To date, we've submitted for entitlements on over 17.7 million sq ft of incremental density, representing 78% of our remaining 22.7 million sq ft pipeline. In Q4, we expect to submit applications for an additional 1 million sq ft of incremental density. In 2023, we have received approvals for 2.2 million sq ft, bringing our total approved density to more than 10.7 million sq ft. Like the balance of our pipeline, the density that was approved in 2023 is all situated in high-demand, transit-oriented urban neighborhoods. These locations include Place Anges on island in Montreal, St. Paul's in Vancouver, Liberty Village in Toronto, and the three-story office building that we own located at the southeast corner of York Mills Road and Leslie Street in Toronto.

As part of our two-year optimization plan, we've identified 6 million sq ft and approximately CAD 400 million of value that we expect to generate from the sale of entitled density. In addition to what we've announced, we are in discussions with potential purchasers on a number of sites and look forward to updating you on these prospective sales as they progress. With that, operator, we can now open it up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you have a question, please press star one at this time. There will be a brief pause while the participants register for questions. Thank you for your patience. The first question is from Lorne Kalmar, from Desjardins. Please go ahead. The line is now open.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research-Real Estate, Desjardins

Thank you very much, and good morning, everybody. Maybe just starting off with the One Bloor East, obviously, a lot of good progress there. I was wondering if you could just clarify when exactly you expect NOI to come on from the Altea lease, and then also from the Nike and I guess the other lease, the remaining lease there of the 20,000 sq ft.

Neil Downey
EVP of Enterprise Strategies and CFO, First Capital REIT

Thank you, Lorne. I hope you're in a different time zone, given the good morning comment. W e expect to turn over possession to both retailers sometime early 2024, and we expect them to be open and rent paying, ideally end of 2024, and in one case, maybe early 2025.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research-Real Estate, Desjardins

Then, you know, I know that's not been exactly probably the easiest asset since it's kind of come on stream to lease, and I was just sort of wondering, did you guys have to make any concessions on TIs or anything, or is the fundamentals are so robust that, you know, things that were difficult are no longer difficult?

Neil Downey
EVP of Enterprise Strategies and CFO, First Capital REIT

Yeah, no, you're right. The asset has had a number of leasing surprises since we've owned it b ut we felt, you know, that, look, we're at the busiest transit station in the country, the busiest intersection. We had a view on market rents, and you know, that's one of the reasons that it's taken this long s o no, there was no compromise on rental rates nor deal cost for that matter.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research-Real Estate, Desjardins

Then I guess, you know, you said previously that you expected the rates to be above what Nordstrom was paying. I'm assuming that has materialized?

Neil Downey
EVP of Enterprise Strategies and CFO, First Capital REIT

Yeah, that has. You know, we're expecting and hoping to provide more detail in that context, but it's not going to be today, really for two reasons. The first is that we're in the midst of finalizing the last piece of space, which is the 8,000 sq ft a nd second, as many of the people on the call know and people in the industry know, Nordstrom's made a settlement offer to landlords that we're also working through s o we have a couple of important negotiations underway.

We just don't want to prejudice our situation opposite or in those negotiations. T he rates have definitely been higher. Not surprising given the Nordstrom rents were set a decade ago, but it is a bit of an anomaly in the FCR portfolio. You know, as we disclosed last quarter, the average rent in the FCR portfolio is about a quarter of what Nordstrom was paying a nd so, you know, we just didn't have the same finger on the pulse that we would in spaces that you know we lease on a regular basis or certainly more regular basis.

Certainly proven to be the case that, you know, that intersection and that neighborhood is a wonderful neighborhood, and demand has clearly deepened over the last little while, and that's coming through in not only the quality of the tenants, but also the financial terms of the leases, including rents.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research-Real Estate, Desjardins

Then just last one from me. You know, as you mentioned, the rents are kind of around CAD 23. Where do you think rents need to get to, to make, you know, to where to the point where you start getting concerned about new supply starting to come on stream?

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

There's two barriers to new supply today. The one you're referencing is financial. The second, which has been around longer, is just physical barriers to entry. Like, if you analyze the trade areas that our properties are situated, you don't see greenfield sites, so that makes it more challenging b ut if we're talking about strictly the financial barrier to entry for new supply, I mentioned in my opening remarks that replacement costs today are roughly 50% higher than the market value for space. That doesn't mean per se that market rents have to increase by 50%, because in general the in-place rent in our portfolio is below market s o it's somewhere, you know, below 50%, but it's not meaningfully below that.

The bottom line is rents have to move, you know, by what I describe as an exceptional amount, to really facilitate the pro formas working for new supply. Then the second challenge would be actually finding sites to build these types of properties.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research-Real Estate, Desjardins

It doesn't sound like it's keeping you up at night. Okay, thank you so much.

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

Pleasure. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Matt Kornack, from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Matt Kornack
Real Estate Equity Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Hey, guys. Don't expect anything spectacular this early on in my coverage of the name. But just with regards to One Bloor East, I remember at the time when you acquired the asset, it was stated that a condo developer had built it with maybe not the most foresight to what retailers would want. Have you, during kind of this retenanting process, been able to optimize kind of the functionality of that space, given the market?

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

Well, welcome back, Matt, to our account. I mean, there are certain things that we were able to change, and there are certain things that we were not a nd some of it is not a big a deal. Some of it that we weren't able to change related to the demisability of space and ultimately what the optionality was in terms of whether you put one tenant or multiple tenants in b ut, the bottom line is the space works, it's functional, it has tremendous presence, from either Yonge or Blo

There's a lot going on at that intersection and other properties that we think will just strengthen it going forward, whether it's the Mizrahi development, you know, we don't know who will end up in that space, but it's spectacular space at the corner. What Kingset's doing, kitty corner to us and redeveloping that with a flagship Lululemon as the anchor. You know, and we expect something's going to happen to the fourth corner as well. S hort answer is yes, we were able to make some changes. It certainly helped. We think that the tenant mix that we've got secured now is more solid from a long-term basis.

You know, we had, believe it or not, in hindsight, some tenants that didn't gravitate to the Nordstrom Rack as a co-tenancy a nd so, their departure actually, I think, helped get some of these additional deals done, or at least on terms that we may not have been able to achieve a o yeah, we have made some changes over time.

Matt Kornack
Real Estate Equity Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Would these new leases contemplate kind of percentage rents clauses as well, or are they just straight rental deals?

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

There's one of them that has, you know, we would describe, a rent that's set at, the greater of low end of market and a percentage of sales.

Matt Kornack
Real Estate Equity Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay. T hen just quickly, Neil, I appreciate the clarification with regards to the recovery and not being in same property NOI figures. A m I correct to understand that it is in the total NOI, and then also, it does funnel down to FFO per unit? I f we wanted to kind of get to a stripped-out figure, we should take that out of those two metrics.

Neil Downey
EVP of Enterprise Strategies and CFO, First Capital REIT

That's correct.

Matt Kornack
Real Estate Equity Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay. Thanks, guys. I'll turn it back.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Sam Damiani from TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. First question, I guess, for you, Adam, just on the optimization plan with the rise in bond yields over the last year and a bit. Do you still see the same targets as being appropriate? In other words, something less than 10 times debt to EBITDA and less than CAD 4 billion of debt, or do you feel the need to maybe tighten that up or be a little more specific, given the new interest rate environment that we find ourselves in?

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

That's a very good question. Not the first time we've been asked it. Fortunately, we're tracking ahead of plan on our debt-to-EBITDA target reduction. You know, if you carve out the activist costs, we're now below 10 times, and we plan to make further progress. We continue to notch down our total debt. We're now at CAD 4.1 billion. The short answer, Sam, is absolutely, we expect to achieve the objectives we laid out. We continue to strongly believe we remain well on track a nd, you know, the moment that we feel like we may fall short of those targets, you know, we feel that would be material information, and we'd make a statement to the market as a whole. That is absolutely not the case today and not something we're contemplating today.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

I guess just to be clear, what I was asking is, you know, given the higher interest rates we find ourselves in, is it appropriate to set a lower leverage target than you had set a year ago?

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

Okay. I apologize for misunderstanding the question, and it's a good question. We felt like the targets we had set a year ago were quite ambitious within the two-year timeframe a nd so we remain on track with that. We're not even halfway through in terms of, you know, we said this will take us through the end of calendar 2024. I don't think it should be a fair assumption to assume, you know, barring any material changes, that we would expect to stop at that point, given the depth of the density pipeline, the entitlement program we've got. You know, I foresee us selling density for many, many years to come, and then it's a, you know, and then there's a capital allocation decision to make.

Our expectation at this point is sometime, you know, in the beginning part or the first half of 2024, we expect more progress will be made. We'll be nearing, you know, or at least have clear visibility to the end of that timeline, measured in months, and we will come out with what our vision is for the FCR business, our balance sheet, et cetera, at that time a nd when we do that, you know, that would be the time that we'd be talking about metrics beyond 2024, what we think is achievable and what we think is the best thing for our investors.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Okay, great. That's helpful. Thank you. L ast one for me is just on kind of more leading indicators. I believe you were participating in the ICSC meetings recently. Is there any sort of tenants on your watch list that maybe weren't there a quarter ago? Any change in tone in your leasing discussions that give, you know, give us a hint as to what sort of impact maybe a pending economic slowdown might be having on the business?

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

Yeah, we had a, we had a very busy ICSC. I can tell you today, the volume in number of lease transactions, square footage under negotiation, is the deepest it's ever been for our company s o we see no slowdown on that front. You know, look, in terms of tenants on our watch list, yeah, there has been one that's popped up. As I believe you know, we've got a small WeWork location in Liberty Village. There's been lots of press around them in the last 24 hours, so certainly based on that press, they would remain on our watch list. It's space that we feel like there would be good demand for. Keep in mind, it was designed as retail space.

We ultimately leased it to them, but we've already had inquiries, and not just in the last 24 hours, but the last couple of months from, we'll call it other co-working companies, but we also have flexibility in the event we do get the space back, to put a retail use in. It'd be premature at this stage to comment any further, given we don't know what happens with the Canadian business. W hat we do know is the space is fully built out, and it's had a high utilization rate, and it is a very busy location, which I think is why we've been approached by other co-working concepts b ut at this point, we don't really have much to add. Other than them, no, there's no one else on our watch list today.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

That's great. Thank you, and I'll turn it back.

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

Thank you very much, Sam.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Mark Rothschild from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Mark Rothschild
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Thanks, and good afternoon, guys. Kind of following up on some of what you've been discussing, maybe two parts. Just in regards to the move in interest rates, has this impacted in any way the pace or the pricing that you expect on your asset sales? M aybe just the second part of that, with One Bloor now, you know, closer to stabilized, is this an asset that strategically you want to own long term, or is this the type of asset that you think you might just be able to get a good price for and sell?

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

Yeah. Thank you very much, Mark, for both questions. On the first one, again, the assets we're selling are not the stable, you know, grocery-anchored, multi-tenant, retail properties that comprise the majority of our business. Yo u know, we've now gone through over CAD 500 million in dispositions. The average yield in place is less than 3%. So, even, you know, at the early stages of interest rates rising or when we started the program, you know, interest rates were a lot higher than the yield in place. That's because these assets have long-term upside, and so people are a certain profile of investor is prepared to pay for that upside, today. We see no change. Interest rates have been rising, although there were a lot for Q3.

As you already mentioned, we had two transactions last week that went firm. There was no change to the terms of those, no price reduction in those. You know, one of them was Yonge and Roselawn. That was the second 25% we sold. We can tell you the price is higher on the second 25% than the first 25% a nd based on the composition of the remaining assets, and particularly their smaller size, I think they average around CAD 20 million each. M ost importantly, the active negotiations that we have underway on those assets, we do not expect, you know, to start falling behind or having to decrease pricing at this point. Again, while we're finding the right buyer for each asset, all private capital, that's the common denominator.

But we do not feel that the market has shifted to the point where it materially will impact our ability to execute. On One Bloor, yeah, you make a good point. The property is different than a lot of other assets we own a nd so I would say certainly your commentary warrants consideration around that and my response to Sam's comment earlier about our intent and plan to clearly articulate what our vision for FCR is beyond the optimization plan, that will include some commentary around our real estate strategy a nd I think at that point, it would be clear, you know, where a One Bloor fits into it or not. But at this stage, you know, it's a great asset. We still have work to do.

We still have value to surface, and that's what we're focused on today.

Mark Rothschild
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Okay, great. Maybe just one more question in regards to the balance sheet. The term of maturity to debt is relatively short. Is that by strategy that you haven't been working to extend it too much, or is, would you like to see that longer? Like, where, where, where would you expect to see that over the next two years?

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

Yeah, I mean, I'll see if Neil has any further commentary. One thing that's been clear is when you're delivering and paying off debt as it comes due, it's very tough to extend your maturity ladder. In the time period where FCR was not reducing debt, you know, we would typically have a maturing piece of debt, and we would term it out by typically 10 years, and then you had a nice five-year average term to maturity. In recent times, we've been paying off a lot of debt, and so that makes it more challenging an d so over the long term, I would expect a weighted average term to maturity to be higher than it is today.

But in the near term, we're going to continue to pay off a meaningful amount of debt, which inherently shortens the ladder, absent other types of loan extensions. It doesn't bother us, that's the reason why. If we were refinancing everything that was maturing for short, you know, with short terms, that would be a different story. The fact we're reducing debt, you know, inherently takes risk out of the whole balance sheet. Anything you want to add?

Neil Downey
EVP of Enterprise Strategies and CFO, First Capital REIT

No.

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

Okay. Apparently, that completes the answer, Mark.

Mark Rothschild
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Okay, thanks so much.

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

Okay, appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. We have a question from Mario Saric from Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Mario Saric
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Scotiabank

Hi, thanks, and good afternoon. Hopefully, you can hear me okay. I just have one really quick one. As part of the optimization plan, you highlighted a target FFO per unit CAGR of about 4% through 2024. Well, that was a different interest rate environment than what we're living in today s o is that target still applicable? T hen, B, if we were to extend that into 2025, given the leasing that you've achieved at One Bloor, is there any reason to think why a similar growth rate could not be achievable in 2025? Thank you.

Neil Downey
EVP of Enterprise Strategies and CFO, First Capital REIT

Hi. Hi, Mario, it's Neil. T o your point, you know, we've made public statements with respect to 2024 and where we see both our our net debt at sub CAD 4 billion, our net debt to EBITDA at sub 10x, and our FFO per unit at CAD 1.20+, which equates to a 4% CAGR, on a multi-year basis s o, you know, we do not give specific point guidance as it relates to FFO per unit growth. You know, we've put the framework around the optimization plan, on a two-year basis, with those metrics at hand. You know, I guess what I'd have to say beyond that is, the modeling is in your court.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Pammi Bir from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Pammi Bir
Managing Director of Real Estate and REITs, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks. Hi, everyone. Just looking at the unit buybacks, you know, that was very quiet this quarter. You know, I'm curious how you're thinking about that at this stage, just given with the asset sales that are still in the pipeline, and of course, you know, the rather sizable gap to your reported NAV.

Neil Downey
EVP of Enterprise Strategies and CFO, First Capital REIT

Yeah. Hi, Pammi. It's Neil again.

I noted in my earlier remarks that the interest rate trend through the Q3 was clearly not our friend a nd so as rates rose this year into the summer and more pointedly through the Q3, we did take a step back from unit repurchases, really in order to see how conditions evolved. You know, the fact of the matter is, we have a very high degree of sensitivity to making sure that we stay true to our prior statements about prioritizing debt repayment. We continue to see the NCIB as a valuable tool through which to invest on an attractive risk-adjusted value basis. But, you know, we'll only do that within the context of a framework of delivering upon those publicly stated debt reduction and credit metric objectives.

You know, we view those objectives as commitments, in fact, commitments to all investors, both bondholders and unitholders s o, you know, the fact of the matter is that, you know, net asset value per unit is a key value indicator. But we do have a preference, I would say, for strategies that can positively impact FFO and AFFO per unit, relative to those that can solely benefit net asset value. W hen you have long bond yields rise by 75 basis points, that effectively increases our hurdle rate. Y ou know, when I talk about hurdle rate, I'm really referring to the interest rate that FCR would incur on its next refinancing, or perhaps more aptly, the interest rate that FCR can avoid if it delays or forgoes some unit repurchases and instead, you know, preserves that capital to be allocated towards debt repayment.

It's a bit of a long answer. The short answer is we paused because rates went up a lot.

Pammi Bir
Managing Director of Real Estate and REITs, RBC Capital Markets

Got it. Yeah, that's helpful, Neil. Just with respect to the write-down that was taken this quarter, on the portfolio, and mostly it looks like it was the income portfolio. Just curious how, you know, how you're thinking about valuations going forward. I think you've been probably more proactive than the group or some of your peers just in taking charges. But just given, again, to your comments around the move in bond yields that we have seen, you know, what are you maybe watching for that might result in further charges ahead, or not?

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

It's a good question. O bviously, one of the things we're looking for are market transactions, and those remain thin, which has allowed, you know, some to lean on that as a reason to hold back. We understand that. We don't think for us that's the prudent approach. There is a correlation between the cost of debt and cap rates. It's not a perfect correlation, but there is a positive correlation. W hen you see a very significant spike in a single quarter by 75 basis points, you know, we say that we can't ignore that, even though there aren't trades s o, you know, we adjusted by 30 basis points. That gives you some insight as to our view on correlation between cap rates and interest rates.

But we're looking, obviously, for the cost of debt, and we're looking, you know, certainly over the longer term, more importantly, comparable trades, which have remained thin.

Pammi Bir
Managing Director of Real Estate and REITs, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks, Adam. Just one last one for me. You know, you mentioned the long-term leases at One Bloor that were, I guess, arranged recently with the three tenants that you mentioned. Can you just, you know, comment on what is sort of the duration of those? Are these 10-year plus, maybe with options? T hen, do these leases incorporate steps?

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

They all incorporate steps. They're 10-year plus.

Pammi Bir
Managing Director of Real Estate and REITs, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks very much. I'll turn it back.

Neil Downey
EVP of Enterprise Strategies and CFO, First Capital REIT

Thank you very much, Pammi.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Adam.

Adam Paul
President & CEO, First Capital REIT

Okay, thank you very much, operator. Thank you, everyone, for attending today. Thank you for those that participated in our analyst Q&A. Have a wonderful afternoon. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

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