International Petroleum Corporation (TSX:IPCO)
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Apr 28, 2026, 1:21 PM EST
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Oct 31, 2023

Mike Nicholson
CEO, International Petroleum Corporation

So a very good morning to everybody, and welcome to IPC's third quarter results and operations update presentation. My name is Mike Nicholson. I'm the CEO of IPC. Also, joining me this morning and presenting is Christophe Nerguizarian , the CFO, and Rebecca Gordon, who's our VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning. I'll be beginning in the usual fashion by walking through the operations report. Christophe will then run through the detailed financial numbers, and then at the end of both presentations, we'll, of course, have the opportunity to take any questions that you have. And you can send your questions in via the website, or we can also take questions from the conference call. So to get started with the Q3 highlights, it's been another very solid quarterly performance from the company in terms of production.

Our third quarter production numbers were above 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. So still in a good position to retain our full year guidance of in excess of 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. On the cost side, third quarter operating costs were very much in line at just below $18 per barrel, and we're maintaining again, the full year OpEx guidance of between $17.50-$18 per barrel. In terms of our capital expenditure guidance, trimming that slightly from $365 million down to $330 million. And of course, the major growth project is our Blackrod Phase 1 development, and that's very much on schedule and on budget. Cash flow generation, the company's strong production, solid commodity prices during the third quarter led to very, very high cash flow generation.

Third quarter OCF was just under $120 million, and we've updated and tightened the guidance range for our full year cash flow numbers to between $340 million and $365 million, assuming that oil prices, Brent, remains between $80-$90 per barrel during the fourth quarter. Free cash flow, likewise, was also very strong, $35 million in the third quarter, and prior to the funding of our Blackrod, in excess of $100 million, so extremely solid cash flow generation. As with our OCF, we're tightening our free cash flow guidance to between -15 million and +5 million, assuming the same $80-$90 per barrel oil price. The balance sheet has never been better. The net cash position of the company stands at $83 million.

That's an increase from the second quarter. Gross cash resources stand in excess of $540 million, and we've seen a turbocharge as a result of the $150 million bond tap that we completed during the third quarter. We've also been able to increase the RCF that we haven't ever used from CAD 150 million up to now CAD 165 million, and that's completely undrawn. When you put all those liquidity lines together, that means that the company has in excess of $650 million of financial firepower. Pretty formidable. On the hedging side, we continue to benefit through October for about 50% of our net long gas production with our AECO hedged at $4.10 per Mcf.

Also, in terms of our differential hedging for 2023, we've got some WCS H&H hedges, which relate to the transportation component of the differential. We've hedged 12,000 barrels per day at -$10 per barrel, and in the fourth quarter, those, the mark to market on those hedges is more than $4 a barrel. So we're gonna see some nice hedging gains during the fourth quarter, on that position. We have, for the first time, started to take advantage of the strong commodity price environment that we've seen recently, and we've hedged 25% of our Canadian production, WTI exposure, at some of the highest prices that we've seen for forward 2024 prices at in excess of $80 per barrel. And we announced during our second quarter results that we'd hedged 50% of our WCS differential exposure.

We've topped that up to now 75%, hedged at an average of $15 per barrel. With some of the recent news of some delays in Trans Mountain, we have seen differentials gap wider for next year to in excess of $17 per barrel. The timing on those hedges looks to be quite prudent. We've also increased the Canadian dollar US dollar hedges in relation to our Blackrod Phase 1 development project, pushing that up to now in excess of 70%, given the strong US dollar that we've seen in recent weeks.

On the M&A side, I'll come back to this, but we managed to conclude during the third quarter the disposal of a non-core property in France for $17 million, 0.6 million barrels of 2P reserves, and we managed to dispose of that at a 220% discount to NAV. So very nice transaction there. And then finally, last but not least, on our share buyback, share repurchase program, we're now 90% complete with this year's normal course issuer bid. We've repurchased 8.4 million shares, and we fully intend to complete the entire program by early December. What's also extremely positive news this morning is I'm delighted to announce that we're going to repeat the normal course issuer bid.

The board has approved for us to renew the normal course issuer bid in early December 2023, and we plan and intend to complete another buyback NCIB program through 2024. So to go into a little bit more detail and on production, as I mentioned in the highlights, our average daily production during the third quarter was just over 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. In Canada, very strong performance from all the major producing assets, and if you look at some of the production investments, great results, and I'll go into a bit more detail on our next slide from our Suffield Ellerslie program that's exceeding expectation. You're also going to see really solid results from the early drilling at Onion Lake and Pad L, which has been brought online ahead of schedule.

When we look at the international business, the French four-well drilling program that was completed early in 2023 continues to perform ahead of forecast, and our Bertam planned shutdown, which was a two-week shutdown, was completed slightly earlier than scheduled with an expanded work scope. Really phenomenal job by all of our countries of operations through the third quarter. This next slide just shows the results of each of the main production investments through the third quarter of 2023. If we start with the chart on the top right-hand side of this slide, you can see the four-well program as part of our Ellerslie drilling program on the Suffield property. That was the Cor4 acquisition. You can see that we're producing still today and well ahead of our pre-drill guidance.

In France, on the bottom right-hand side of this slide, you can see the continued outperformance of the four-well drilling program, three wells in Villeperdue West and one sidetrack well in Méry, in France. And again, we're almost 50% higher today from that drilling program relative to pre-drill expectations, so great results. And on the bottom left-hand side of the slide, the most recent activity, which is bringing into production the pad, the first two wells from our Pad L, you can see that we're more than a month ahead of schedule of starting up production from that new well pad, and we're running hot on the ramp-up. So again, great results across all three of those programs during the quarter. So what does that mean in terms of the full year guidance?

Well, with year-to-date production for the first nine months running at 51,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day, we still feel extremely comfortable that we expect our full year numbers to be above the high end of our original guidance in excess of 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and I certainly expect us to be somewhere in the 50,000-51,000 barrels a day range. Turning to operating cash flow now. So very strong first nine-month cash flow generation, just under $280 million, with average Brent prices for the first nine months of $82 per barrel.

And we've taken the opportunity to tighten the guidance for the full year on the right-hand side of this slide to now $340 million, assuming Q4 oil prices of $80 Brent and up to $365 million if oil prices are around $90 million . So $90 per barrel for the fourth quarter. On the capital expenditure side, it's a record investment year in our growth projects for IPC, progressing the Phase 1 development works at Blackrod. As we mentioned during our second quarter results, we signed a major facility EPC contract during the second quarter.

We've already spent around $200 million so far in the first nine months of 2023, and we're revising down slightly our CapEx budget for the full year, down from $365 million down to $330 million, predominantly as a result of the phasing of our Blackrod capital expenditure. So we've got strong operating cash flow, record investment, but I think what's been really impressive is we've still been able to fully fund the investment this year in our growth projects out of the base business cash flow. First nine-month free cash flow has been $67 million. We've still got a big quarter of investment in the fourth quarter, but we expect to be broadly break even.

If you look at the most recent guidance that we're just giving today, we expect free cash flow to between somewhere -$15 million, $80 oil, or up to +$5 million, assuming $90 Brent. Largely fully funding our highest ever investment year in the company out of the base business cash flow generation. To turn now to IPC's shareholder return framework, this is not new. As long as our balance sheet's in good shape and our net debt to EBITDA leverage ratio is below 1x, we've made a commitment to return at least 40% of free cash flow to shareholders.

We announced our intention at the beginning of this year to go well beyond that minimum commitment, and given the fact that we, the balance sheet was in such a strong position with $425 million of gross cash, we made the commitment to conclude the normal course issuer bid through 2023. And that's exactly what we've done. We've bought back 8.4 million shares since December of 2022. We're 90% complete with that program, and we bought back the average purchase price of the stock was SEK 101 per share under the 2023 program.

If you look at the longer-term track record of the company, I think this is something that we've been really proud of year after year, to consistently be able to grow the business, production, reserves, cash flow, and combine that with buybacks and reducing the share count. And I think that's a real winning combination for all of our shareholders. So far, we've repurchased more than 60 million IPC shares with an average price of only SEK 63 per share. And if you look at the pre-market opening share price of SEK 115 per share, that means that we've generated close to $280 million of value for all of our shareholders through those various buyback programs.

Obviously, very pleased to announce again that we plan to continue that anti-dilution staircase, and the board has approved for us to renew the 2023-2024 NCIB program, and we intend to fully complete that during 2024. That means that the share count should drop to close to 120 million shares by the year-end, which will result in only 6% dilution from when the company started. Of course, with fivefold increase in production, with a 16-fold increase in 2P reserves, 20 years almost added to our reserve life and a huge undeveloped contingent resource inventory of in excess of 1 billion barrels, 4x cash flow, and more than $3 billion of value created.

If we can continue to reduce the share count and add to all of these metrics, then we can deliver exceptional above-peer group returns for all of our shareholders in the years ahead. If we look at this next slide in our market cap liquidation, and what we're looking at here is just a five-year and a 10-year free cash flow. And with $1.4 billion of free cash flow at $95 per barrel forecast over the next five years, it means that in just that first five years, we can just under $95 oil price buyback every single IPC share that's outstanding.

If we look at the 10-year outlook with a major growth and position that the company finds itself in, at oil prices of less than $75 per barrel, we can actually buy back the entire share count twofold. So very, very strong cash flow generation metrics for the company. Likewise, if we look at IPC through the value lens, this is our third-party reserve auditor's valuation at the beginning of this year, effectively using real oil prices of $80 per barrel. Our NPV10 of our assets is just over $3.5 billion. If we look at where the stock was trading yesterday at market close, SEK 115 a share, that's a 62% discount to where we see the fair value of our 2P reserves.

Of course, that doesn't assume that we develop any of our billion barrels of contingent resources. We don't do any value-accretive M&A. So it's why we're so keen to continue to hammer away at the share count and continue with our share buyback program. This next slide just touches upon the non-core disposal that we announced in Canada this morning. So these were some small production in the John Lake and Fishing Lake area in Alberta. Production was just under 400 barrels of oil per day, so really only 2.07% of IPC's 2023 production. Very favorable trading metric, Canadian in excess of CAD 60,000 per flowing barrel.

Also, if we look at the reserves, relatively small, 0.6 million barrels of 2P reserves or 0.12% of IPC's 2P reserves. With a consideration, not insignificant, of $17 million, that's 220% of our NPV10 of this asset or 1.4% of IPC's enterprise value. If we can sell non-core assets at more than 2x and buy back our existing stock at 30, at 40 cents in the dollar, that's a really efficient way to allocate capital, and this can effectively fund 20% of our 2023, 2024 buyback program. Just to walk through each of the individual assets in a little bit more detail. Our Blackrod Phase 1 development project, IPC holds a 100% working interest in that project.

We took the decision in February of this year to sanction the Phase 1 development, and that will see us invest $850 million to build a 30,000 barrels a day facility, tapping the first 220 million barrels of 2P reserves, with more than 1 billion barrels of undeveloped contingent resources in the surrounding area. We're still very much on schedule and on budget to deliver first oil in this project in late 2026. This next slide just shows the high-level schedule with planning and the commencement of fabrication in the workshop in 2023. Next year, we start to mobilize the site to move into the manufacturing and the construction phase.

As you can see, we plan to start the commissioning of the facilities in late 2025, with a first oil date towards late 2026. And I think it's always helpful just to see a picture tells a thousand words, and if we look at this next slide, you can see some of the progress. Last quarter, we showed we did increase the bridge size and replaced the bridge on the main access road. If you look at the picture on the bottom of this, bottom middle of this slide, you can see now the road widening activities that are going on. On the bottom right-hand side of this slide, you can see that we've put the piles in place, and we've actually started the assembly of the construction camp in advance of the CPF construction, which should commence next year.

Then on the bottom left, you can see the progress made in the workshop on the manufacture of one of the treater vessels. The EPC contract, as we said, was signed back in the second quarter. That was a major project milestone. We've increased the hedges. 70% of our Canadian dollar exposure has now been locked in, and we plan to potentially even do some more in the fourth quarter. Cost and schedule is very much in line with expectation from the previous slide. Turning now to Onion Lake Thermal, and with the introduction of the production from the two new wells at Pad L, we've been pushing up against that facility nameplate capacity of 14,000 barrels per day.

Again, just a recap from the production investment slide, you can see on the bottom right-hand side of the slide here, just the fact that those two new wells came on more than a month ahead of schedule, and the ramp-up has been ahead of forecast. So off to a great start there with the new Pad L, and a great job done, and congrats to the Onion Lake Thermal team. Turning to the Suffield area assets. I think if you look at the bottom left-hand side of this slide, you can see the large jump that we got to our oil production as a result of the Cor4 acquisition. We now call this Property Brooks going forward. We've seen really good performance from the initial results of that drilling program.

If I jump to this next slide, and again, it's a recap from earlier in the presentation. With that promising start that we've seen to the first six wells that we've planned to drill as part of the 2023 program, with production running ahead of pre-drill guidance, we've taken the decision to actually expand the drilling program now up to eight wells. Adding an additional two wells to the 2023 program, and that should stand us in really good stead going forward with still in excess of 30 remaining targets on this exciting play that we brought into the IPC portfolio at the beginning of this year. Now turning to Malaysia. We really successfully delivered a huge work scope, actually.

It was planned to be a two-week shutdown, and we had 35,000 man hours, more than four support vessels for this major shutdown and turnaround, and everyone came home safely. So it really was a tremendous job by the whole team in Malaysia to deliver that, under budget and ahead of schedule. We did have two wells that failed during the third quarter, so we've scheduled them for workover in Q4. Typically, we always forecast one to two wells to go down during the years. We've been fortunate that we haven't had to in recent time, and we've got a rig that will come to site in November, and we should have those two workovers completed by January of next year.

The team in Malaysia are still excited about the upside development potential in the northeastern part of the field, and we'll see if there is any future drilling locations in that part of the field. If I was a betting man, I would say there's maybe one more. Turning to France, it's been a really long life, stable, low-declining asset. If we look at the production plot on the bottom right-hand side of the chart here, you can see that we've benefited from the investment program and the new wells that were brought into production. The three wells at Villeperdue West and the Merisier sidetrack, those very much producing well in excess of our pre-drill expectations. So again, great job done there by Team France.

And then just on sustainability and ESG, it was a really solid performance, a lot of activity, particularly with the Bertam turnaround, no safety incidents or environmental incidents year to date. We published our fourth sustainability report alongside our second quarter results, and our climate strategy very much on track to be reducing our net emissions intensity by 50% through the end of 2025. So that concludes the operations part. I'll pass across to Christophe now, and he can walk through the detailed financial numbers. So, Christophe?

Christophe Nerguararian
CFO, International Petroleum Corporation

Thank you very much, Mike. Very happy to be, to be here this, this morning to, to present what, clearly is a, a very strong quarter. The, the results have been carried by strong operational performance and obviously the strongest oil prices and the best netback we've seen for the, for the whole year. So with a, with a production, in the third quarter in excess of, 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, we were happy to confirm that, we maintain a positive outlook for the whole year with a, with a guidance, for this year, which should be in excess of, of 50,000.

Clearly, strong Brent and WTI prices, but as well, a fairly tight differential, I'll come back to that, which together with OpEx per barrel under control at $17.9, below $18 for this quarter, translated into a very strong EBITDA and operating cash flow. If you look at the nine months operating cash flow and EBITDA, actually, with this strong quarter, we're fairly close to the capital markets guidance for the first nine months, if you extrapolated what it meant from the full year to three quarters. With capital expenditure, which is a bit below our initial guidance, that translated into very strong free cash flow.

The free cash flow for this quarter alone is as much as the free cash flow for the first two quarters, and the same for the net results. Looking at the realized oil prices, as I was saying, you can see that clearly in this third quarter. Prices were as high as they have been for the whole year. We've been continuing to sell our Malaysian cargoes at a $7-$8 premium to the dated Brent benchmark. In France, we've been selling our production in line with the dated Brent. Now, as you can tell, the WTI-WCS differential was fairly tight at $13 per barrel, and that translated into a very strong and good WCS level at $69.

You could compare that to the third quarter in 2022, where despite the Brent being $101 per barrel, the WCS was only $3 higher. That differential is very important. As Mike mentioned, I'll come back to that, we've hedged a good chunk of our exposure for 2024 already. Looking at the gas, I mean, we locked in in Q4 2022 for the bulk of 2023. We had very good hedging levels when the gas prices were running very hot on the back of the Russian War, and we've benefited from those hedge levels throughout this year.

This is coming to an end at the end of October, and so the market is between CAD 2.5-CAD 3 per Mcf, so lower than the CAD 3.50 we used during our Capital Markets Day. But as you can see, the realized gas prices, we've managed to be at or above the market price by having a proactive marketing strategy. Looking at the operating cash flow and EBITDA. So I think it's interesting because if you compare Q3 this year to Q3 last year, you can see that we're catching up. If you look at the nine months year to date, operating cash flow, EBITDA, we are lagging, obviously, compared to 2022, where the Brent on average was in excess of $100.

But it's interesting to see that the third quarter is not that different, with EBITDA and operating cash flow around $120 million. And that goes a long way to explain again that IPC has a very high torque towards high oil prices. And when you have high oil prices and good WCS or tight WTI-WCS differential, clearly the financial performance is very strong. In terms of operating costs, again, very happy to report that we expect the full year operating cost per barrel of oil equivalent to be within the fairly tight guidance range we announced previously of between $17.5-$18 per BOE. You can see an increased OpEx per barrel in the second half of this year.

In the third quarter, that was mainly driven by the shut-in in Malaysia to perform some maintenance work at the FPSO Bertam. In the fourth quarter, it's driven by a bit of a reduced production, again from Malaysia, waiting for us to work over the two wells, which will come back on stream in the first quarter next year. Strong, very strong netback during this quarter at above $25 and $26 respectively for operating cash flow and EBITDA per barrel of oil equivalent. Interestingly enough, that compares to around $28 per BOE of netback, which we guided at our Capital Markets Day in a $100 case. Obviously, that's driven by the very tight WTI, WCS differential during this quarter.

Even for the year-to-date performance, the netback on the operating cash flow at EBITDA per BOE was around $20, and that is just $1 shy of our base case for the Capital Markets Day. Looking at our net cash evolution here from an opening cash position of $175 million, down to where we stand now at $83 million, I think it's really interesting to realize that with a operating cash flow of $280 million year to date, that was enough to cover all of our CapEx, all of our G&A, all of our financial costs, and as well, the acquisition of Cor4 , which, as Mike mentioned, is performing very, very well.

In addition, as you can see here, and as Mike mentioned, we've completed 90% of our share buyback program, which we intend to complete by the end of November. And there's a reasonably large change in working capital here, which was, which includes some decommissioning costs, some time differences in the way we pay some taxes, and as well, a discount when it relating to the bond tap. But very happy that we are sitting on actually $540 million of gross cash, $83 million of net cash, and that really puts the company in an extremely strong footing to embark on the heavy CapEx year next year in 2024.

Interesting to look at what the net interest expenses are. Very small, at less than $1 million this quarter, and actually, it's been less than $1 million per quarter. That's interesting because we've raised more bonds, issued more bonds at 7.25% coupon. Actually, the yield of the last bond tap was higher than that. But because we're able to deposit our U.S. dollars or Canadian dollars at on deposit rates in excess of five, sometimes in excess of 5.5%, we generate lots of financial interest income, which nets off the actual coupon cost. So long story short, a reasonably low net interest cost for debt. And on the G&A, that remains very much under control at less than $1 per.

U.S. dollar per BOE. So if you looked at our financial results for the first nine months, with $665 million of revenues, we've generated a cash margin of $291 million, gross and net profit of $211 million and $143 million for the year. So a very strong performance, again, I would say, for this year-to-date performance. Looking at the balance sheet, I mean, the two or three main points are the increase in the oil and gas properties.

That's a direct result of the CapEx program we've done so far this year, mostly investing into Blackrod Phase 1, but also, as Mike mentioned, some drilling in France earlier this year and some other investment at Onion Lake Thermal, bringing on stream a few wells. So that $200 million increase on oil and gas properties is the direct result of development CapEx. On the liability side of the balance sheet, you can see the increase in the bonds. Now we have $450 million of bonds outstanding. There's a small discount relating to the issue discounts which will unwind over time over the next three years.

The equity increase is the direct result of the positive net profit we keep on adding to that row on the balance sheet. The capital structure of the business is very strong. It's not changed fundamentally. We've just added more bonds. I think I wanna preempt one question, which I've heard before, which is, w hy do you expand a fully undrawn revolver credit facility in Canada? Why do you tap the bond market when you're already sitting on so much cash? Well, I think the answer is we don't need, and we don't believe we will need that all that cash resources. But in 2020, nobody expected COVID to break out, obviously.

So we don't know what we don't know in the future. What we know is, we've embarked and we want to conclude successfully the investment in, in the Blackrod Project. So the Blackrod Project is on time and on budget. There's no hidden message, by increasing the strength of our balance sheet here, to be very clear. But we know what we're committing to, and so we want to be covered in any case with a strong balance sheet, and sitting on lots of cash gives us that flexibility.

Very much align our balance sheet with our strategic pillars, which are to invest in Blackrod, to continuously look at M&A, even though we are not looking at anything material right now, and to continue, if not accelerate, share buyback or return of capital to shareholders if oil prices remain very strong. In terms of hedging, we had been quite active in 2023. I mentioned about the gas hedging, which has yielded very strong result, more than $10 million hedging profit this year. We also have this oil hedges for the transportation cost between Hardisty and Houston for heavy oil, which is in the money as we speak.

As Mike mentioned, I think one of the key drivers you've understood, if you've been following our story, that the WTI-WCS differential is important. So given that, we will have some important CapEx for Blackrod next year, we've decided to hedge 75% of our WTI-WCS exposure for the Canadian oil production next year. We managed to lock that in at -$15 per BOE per barrel, which is a decent level, and it's in the money because the market rate is -$17 as we speak. We've also decided, as we guided in the past, to hedge 25% of our Canadian oil production at a WTI level of $81.

So effectively, for 25% of our Canadian oil production, we have locked in a WCS price of $66.81 minus $15, and for another 15-50% of our Canadian oil production, we've locked in the differential at minus $15. We also locked in some condensate prices. We need to buy condensate to blend it with our production in order to sell it at the WCS specification. And we've managed to lock in good prices for 3,000 barrels a day in Q4 this year and Q1 next year, which are the months when traditionally condensate trades higher.

We managed to lock in a price of WTI - $1.6, when it usually trades at a premium in the winter months, and 3,000 barrels a day stands for roughly 50% of the condensate we need to blend with our Suffield and Onion Lake crude oil production. We've been also proactive this year and added the FX on FX hedging because we're spending most of our cost locally in Canada, in Canadian dollar, in Malaysian ringgit, in Malaysia.

The U.S. dollar is very strong against those currency, and so we've hedged between 2/3 and 75% of our local currency exposure for next year, with also 70% of the Blackrod CapEx overall, until the end of 2025, hedged at a fairly good level, I would say, at 1.33 Canadian per U.S . dollar, which puts us in a very strong position to really manage the budget for Blackrod. And that concludes my part. I will leave Mike walk us through the last slide.

Mike Nicholson
CEO, International Petroleum Corporation

Okay. Thank you very much, Christophe, and amazing set of numbers. So let me just open up the, j ust lost my slide there. So yeah, so just to conclude with the highlights here. Sorry, it's just lost. So, a very, very solid third quarter performance by the company, and if we just recap on the production numbers, another quarter, the third in succession above our high-end guidance of over 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. So of course, we do expect the full year numbers to exceed 50,000. That was in excess of our original high-end guidance. The cost delivery remains really solid, with third quarter OpEx below $18 per barrel, and our full-year guidance unchanged at between $17.50 and $18 per barrel.

Embarking upon our biggest-ever investment year in the company's history, with full year CapEx now expected to be around $330 million. As Christophe touched upon, and I mentioned, your share buybacks and returns have been one of our core strategic pillars. We're 90% done on the 2023 program. We plan to complete that by early December, and we're gonna do the same again, or we intend to, with a renewal and completing that program through 2024. Cash flow numbers extremely solid, good production, tight differentials, solid commodity prices led to operating cash flow of just under $120 million, $35 million of free cash flow during the quarter, and we expect to be largely free cash flow breakeven, with somewhere between -$15 million and +$5 million for the full year.

The balance sheet has never been in better shape, with net cash of $83 million, gross cash of $543 million, and with the RCF undrawn liquidity lines of an excess of $650 million. The sustainability strategy and climate strategy very much on track, with a plan to reduce our net emissions intensity by 50% through the end of 2025. And last but not least, I'm very pleased to announce this morning that Will Lundin will be stepping up to succeed me as the CEO of IPC. After 19 years working with both Lundin Petroleum and IPC, it's time, I think, for me to take a slightly different role and step up onto the board of this amazing company and continue to watch the progress. Will is an exceptional individual.

He's lived and breathed value creation in the resource industry, and the oil and gas space. I think the timing is very good right now with such a strong balance sheet and a reserve life of in excess of 25 years and a billion barrels of undeveloped contingent resources. I think we're gonna be in great hands, and this is very much in line with the way we like to run our succession planning within the Lundin Group. So I would like to just thank very much the Lundin Family, the IPC Board, particularly the amazing team of professionals within IPC, corporately here in Geneva, in Canada, France, and Malaysia, and also to all of the shareholders and analysts that's been a privilege to engage with over these years. So that concludes the presentation part.

Happy to pass across now and take any questions that you may have.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to ask questions. We will take the first question from line. Ruben Devos from Jefferies. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

Ruben Devos
Analyst, Jefferies LLC

Hi, guys. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. And I just wanted to say, Mike, congrats on your tenure as CEO and, wishing yourself and William all the best on your new roles. So just one on the CapEx phasing into 2024 for Blackrod. Just wanted to check if, is all that CapEx falling in 2024, or will it be split over a number of years to first oil? And secondly, I just wanted to ask you, what are your views of the major milestones for Blackrod up until first oil, and are you still exploring, perhaps farming out any interest in Blackrod? Thank you.

Mike Nicholson
CEO, International Petroleum Corporation

Yeah, thanks very much, and great question. And I think in terms of the phasing of the CapEx, just to be clear, in typical IPC fashion, when we set the budget this year and next year, we took a relatively conservative position. So we expect to be spending the budget as fast as we can possibly move, burning through all of the contingency. We don't want to be coming back to increase our CapEx guidance. So I think the fact that if we see some CapEx move into next year and some into 2025, that's more driven by our conservative nature, with respect to how we budget and how we like to guide and outperform as opposed to anything, with respect to worrying about the schedule.

So very much on schedule and on budget with the project. But I think the major milestones we set out in the presentation, so of course, it's really the road access, which we've started work. We've started work also on expanding the road. As we move into next year, the major activities will be getting that construction camp completed with the mobilization of from the workshop of the main vessels to the site. The pipelines, which are expected to commence in 2024, we're already looking to start to sign a couple of the main pipeline contracts. So again, everything there is very much on schedule. And the drilling, which is the other key part of the project, which is expected to commence next year. Maybe we can even start that late this year.

So I think on all the key work scopes, the civil works, the fabrication, getting ready to start, the CPF construction, the drilling and the pipelines, I think everything is very much running as we would expect that.

Ruben Devos
Analyst, Jefferies LLC

Okay. Thank you very much, guys. Very clear.

Mike Nicholson
CEO, International Petroleum Corporation

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. It appears no further question. I'll hand it back over to your host for closing remarks. Thank you.

Rebecca Gordon
VP of Corporate Planning and Investor Relations, International Petroleum Corporation

Thanks, operator. We've just got a couple of questions here from the internet. Mike, how is the Onion Lake capacity expansion going, and how are the current levels of production for Onion Lake?

Mike Nicholson
CEO, International Petroleum Corporation

Yeah, good question. I think as we showed in on the slide with respect to Onion Lake, with the new Pad L and the contribution from the two wells, we've been actually pushing up towards the facility capacity limits of 14,000 barrels per day. There is, of course, the option to look at expanding that production capacity, but I think we wanna wait for, you know, at least a year or so to see the sustained production can be retained at those levels before deciding to invest in additional facility expansion. And of course, that will be driven by how much return we can make by investing and increasing the facilities, say, up to 16,000 barrels a day and accelerating that production.

But I think we want to at least run the plan for a sustained period at those levels, but we're certainly very much off to a good start with Pad L.

Rebecca Gordon
VP of Corporate Planning and Investor Relations, International Petroleum Corporation

Yeah, very good. And a couple of questions from different people relating to the non-core asset divestments. Are there any other non-core assets that we could look at divesting if we're getting such good prices for them?

Mike Nicholson
CEO, International Petroleum Corporation

Yeah, I mean, I think at the margins there are always some small land position. Mainly in Canada, I would say. So given the very favorable results that we saw and the amazing job done by the team in Canada, if there's any additional small non-core packages, then we'll look to tidy those up in the months ahead.

Rebecca Gordon
VP of Corporate Planning and Investor Relations, International Petroleum Corporation

Thanks. Christophe, there's a couple of questions around the share buybacks. Is there a level where we will buy back less shares in terms of the NAV?

Christophe Nerguararian
CFO, International Petroleum Corporation

Yeah. So it's a very good question, and obviously if you look at the discounts we're trading at, it's, I wish we will very soon be in a position where there's no such discount, but as long as there's such a wide discount, I don't see a reason to stop buying back our shares. Makes tremendous sense to do it, to create more value for shareholders. As Mike mentioned, even if it's a small that asset we disposed of, if we can get two to three times the value from an NAV basis and recycle that to buy our shares back at a 60% discount, I think it's a very good use of capital.

Rebecca Gordon
VP of Corporate Planning and Investor Relations, International Petroleum Corporation

Very good. And Christophe, perhaps another question on 2024 activity: How does the Blackrod CapEx phasing impact other 2024 activity, and any catch-up effects from the movement 2023 to 2024?

Christophe Nerguararian
CFO, International Petroleum Corporation

Yeah, I think it's fair to say, as Mike mentioned, that 2024 is really going to be the CapEx year for Blackrod, and I think it's going to dwarf any other activity that we'll be looking at investing in next year. So, I think generally we, i t's too early to guide. We'll give all the details in early February, obviously for 2024, but it's a fair assumption to say that really the vast majority of our investment efforts will be on Blackrod Phase 1 next year.

Rebecca Gordon
VP of Corporate Planning and Investor Relations, International Petroleum Corporation

Very good. And, finally, there's quite a few comments here. "Thank you, Mike, for your great work as CEO." I won't read them all out because he'll get a big head on his way out. But yeah, lots of comments on that, and looking forward to a very bright future with Will as CEO. So that's the end of the internet questions.

Mike Nicholson
CEO, International Petroleum Corporation

Great. Well, thank you very much. Another amazing quarter. Congrats again to all of the IPC team, and very much looking forward to—

Christophe Nerguararian
CFO, International Petroleum Corporation

Yeah

Mike Nicholson
CEO, International Petroleum Corporation

To my new role on the board and wish Will all the best of luck. I know that he's gonna drive the company to new heights.

Christophe Nerguararian
CFO, International Petroleum Corporation

Of course.

Mike Nicholson
CEO, International Petroleum Corporation

Look forward to tracking that progress.

Christophe Nerguararian
CFO, International Petroleum Corporation

Thank you. Thank you very much, Mike. It's been absolutely a great honor, pleasure. It's been amazing to work with you, with you and for you. I think it's fair to mention that from all the team and from all the colleagues around the world, it was a privilege. We will definitely try to run with the team and Will, as fast as you've been running and pushing us over the last six years. I think with Will, it's a challenge we're willing to take. And Will is so much full of energy and has a clear vision for the business that I think we should. We're embarking on a very exciting phase.

The only downside is you'll be asking all the tough questions on the board and knowing exactly firsthand what's happening in the car, who's driving, who's doing what. But no, very much looking forward to continue working with you in your different role and taking on the new challenge with Will, who's an exceptional leader. Thank you.

Mike Nicholson
CEO, International Petroleum Corporation

Thanks very much, Christophe. Yeah, thanks.

Rebecca Gordon
VP of Corporate Planning and Investor Relations, International Petroleum Corporation

Thanks, everyone.

Mike Nicholson
CEO, International Petroleum Corporation

Okay, thank you.

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