Good morning. My name is Ludy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Keyera's 2024 guidance conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press the star followed by the number two. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Dan Cuthbertson, Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.
Thank you and good morning. Joining me today will be Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO, Eileen Marikar, Senior Vice President and CFO, Jamie Urquhart, Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, and Jarrod Beztilny, Senior Vice President, Operations and Engineering. We will begin with some prepared remarks from Dean and Eileen, after which we will open the call to questions. I would like to remind listeners that some of the comments and answers that we will give you today relate to future events. These forward-looking statements are given as of today's date and reflect events or outcomes that management currently expects. In addition, we will refer to some non-GAAP financial measures. For additional information on non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements, please refer to Keyera's public filings available on SEDAR and on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dean.
Thanks, Dan, and thank you for joining us today. Eileen Marikar and I will be sharing a presentation, after which we'll be joined by the rest of the senior executive team for the Q&A portion of the call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone about the risks associated with forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures included in this presentation. You will have seen in the news release this morning that we're on track for a very strong year. Before we get to the Q&A section of the call, Eileen and I are going to, firstly, look back at our results so far in 2023 and compare how we delivered against the targets we set out. Secondly, look in more detail at the progress and contributions made by key parts of our business.
Finally, discuss our 2024 guidance and how we have decided to allocate capital in the coming year. I'm very proud of our performance in 2023. We set out a clear strategy, and the team executed well. Many of these accomplishments are detailed in the release, but I'll touch on a few highlights. Our safety performance improved dramatically, with Total Recordable Injury Frequency down from 0.62 last year to 0.24 at the end of Q3, including both employees and contractors. Our business has performed very well. We're on track to deliver record margins from all three business segments, leading to record EBITDA and DCF per share performance. We maintained our financial strength with leverage at the very bottom end of our targeted range, even after the of KAPS, the largest single project in our history.
Also, S&P awarded us with a credit upgrade, reflecting a strong financial position and outlook for our business. This strong balance sheet and great business performance supported the decision to increase our dividend by 4% in August, returning Keyera to its long history of dividend growth. We've strengthened our value chain and increased our competitiveness. We now have a fully integrated service offering from wellhead to end markets, which means we can touch the molecules every step of the way, adding value for our customers and margin for ourselves. On our sustainability journey, we're on track to meet our 25% emissions intensity target by 2025. From two thousand and nineteen to the end of 2022, we achieved a 13.5% reduction in emissions intensity and will continue to execute on capital-efficient opportunities to reduce emissions and operating costs.
I'm very confident in our ability to continue delivering on our strategy as we approach 2024. Let's start with the macro context in which we're executing our strategy. The map on the left highlights the massive resource potential of our basin and various sanctioned capacity expansions. Projects like Coastal GasLink, feeding LNG Canada, and the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion will enable a reliable supply of Canada's responsibly produced energy to reach global markets. The two takeaway messages here are: we're sitting on world-class, multi-decade reserves, and with the added pipeline capacity to the West Coast, our basin is finally unconstrained. We expect this to lead to a strong supply response, as illustrated on the chart to the right. Our integrated infrastructure will help to enable this growth. Today, our basin produces roughly 18 Bcf a day of natural gas.
With 4.1 Bcf a day of sanctioned expansions, it represents approximately 20% growth for our basin, and 30% if you include the unsanctioned LNG Canada Phase Two, anticipated in the second half of the decade. Western Canada has vast natural gas reserves and a globally competitive supply cost. The lack of pipeline takeaway capacity has limited growth. That's about to change with the previously mentioned pipelines coming into service next year. As Canada's natural gas production grows, natural gas liquids volumes will grow, too. This is at the core of our business, and transporting, processing, terminalling, and marketing these liquids is what we do best. With KAPS now in place, we can now offer a complete suite of value-added services across our entire value chain in a very efficient manner. This means that we can help make the whole basin even more competitive.
Producers who are investing to grow are financially stronger than ever. The publicly stated growth plans have been compiled in the graph on the left. Natural gas liquids volumes are expected to keep growing in both Alberta and BC, and the map on the right illustrates how our assets are strategically located to benefit from this growth. Given the growth that we've experienced since 2022 and the outlook that we have going forward, we expect to reach the high end of the previous 6%-7% EBITDA growth target that we gave at our 2022 Investor Day. We can deliver this growth largely with capital that's already been deployed. There are many opportunities to continue to enhance our system because we're located in the most active areas of the basin, and the basin will need more infrastructure capacity to support that growth.
Examples of that are the KAPS Zone Four project and options to increase frac capacity. We're continuing to advance these projects, and they're subject to attaining sufficient customer underpinning and board sanction. Further out, we continue to pursue our low-carbon hub strategy. This would leverage our existing land, connectivity, expertise, and proximity to large industrial players to offer value-added, low-carbon services. We're excited about Dow's Path to Zero announcement and believe that more low-carbon opportunities will be developed in the Industrial Heartland in Alberta. Not only is cash flow growing, but so is the quality of it. I want to take a moment to share how our G&P business has changed over the last several years and how this is contributing to higher profitability. Our G&P business has evolved.
Since 2017, we've been making significant strategic investments in developing our G&P footprint in the northern region, as we could see the growth potential from the Montney and Duvernay plays. At the same time, in the south region, our optimization program diverted volumes from the less efficient plants to more efficient ones, driving higher profitability and lowering emissions. Over 70% of our realized margin used to come from the south. Now, over 70% comes from the north, where we have a higher proportion of long-term take-or-pay contracts with strong producers. I'd also add that in the north, we have the opportunity to offer more services like water handling, sour gas processing, and liquid separation. Putting this all together, it has led to about a 20% higher unit realized margin for the entire segment. There are also interesting developments in the south.
It's clear that there are interesting prospects for consolidation among producers in this area, such as Tourmaline's recent acquisition. We expect this to drive more activity in the area where we have an extensive gathering processing system, our Keylink NGL pipeline, fractionation at Rimbey, and pipe transportation to Fort Saskatchewan. The NGL growth volume in the basin will continue to support the Liquids Infrastructure segment. The continued ramp-up of KAPS and renewal of fractionation contracts at the KFS complex have a high proportion of long-term take-or-pay contracts. On top of that, production from the oil sands is set to grow, and this will drive diluent demand, the majority of which originates from our condensate system. We're already seeing new contracts for diluent handling and more opportunities for transportation and storage. The NGL infrastructure volume growth that I just mentioned also increases opportunities to benefit our marketing business.
Today, we're increasing our base marketing guidance to a new level of CAD 310 million-CAD 350 million. We're very confident in this part of our business and our ability to deliver within this new range. There are two main structural factors that lead us to higher base marketing guidance. Firstly, the growth of our business. With more liquids flowing through our integrated system, it feeds our marketing segment as well. Secondly, our team has done a great job accessing new markets that offer advantageous pricing for iso-octane. We'll update our 2024 marketing guidance with our first quarter results in May, once our NGL contracting season is complete. Our marketing business is a valuable differentiator for Keyera....
First of all, it's important to understand that marketing is a physical business that creates benefits for our customers by connecting them to the highest value markets in a very efficient way, thereby enhancing their net backs. We do this in two ways. Firstly, by leveraging our physical assets to access high-value markets, such as AEF's unique ability to convert butane into a high-value gasoline additive. Secondly, by leveraging our logistics and marketing expertise across North America. This ability to create value for our customers means that we can also capture value for ourselves. Because of the value we're able to create with our iso-octane business, this segment is a larger proportion of our cash flow than our peers. It comes with advantages, so let me explain how this fits with our overall business model.
While we don't rely on marketing to fund the dividend, it has enabled us to consistently produce higher than average corporate returns on invested capital, as seen in the chart on the bottom left. Now, if I can move your attention to the wheel on the right, the cash flows generated from marketing are reinvested back into the fee-for-service business, therefore enabling us to continue to compound returns at an accelerated rate. This accelerated growth and high-quality fee-for-service cash flow in turn supports further dividend growth and other forms of shareholder returns. Marketing cash flows can also be applied to the balance sheet. In a sense, it's like getting a free equity issue without the dilution. So in summary, the marketing segment is a powerful advantage, which allows us to consistently generate superior returns.
I'll now pass it over to Eileen, who will provide context around our thinking on capital allocation and guidance in 2024.
Thanks, Dean. From 2017 to 2022, we averaged around CAD 700 million per year for growth capital, which has funded a lot of our business growth over the next few years. Going forward, annual growth capital is expected to be lower relative to the past five years. As we look out, we have strong free cash flow generation in the coming years. Given this, I wanted to share with you how we are thinking about our capital allocation priorities in the near term. As it relates to the balance sheet, we're happy to stay at the lower end of our range, and in the near term, we will use some of our cash to pay down higher rate short-term debt. We'll also look to term out some of our short-term debt at more favorable rates when the time is right.
Continued strength of the balance sheet gives us maximum optionality to bring forward growth projects when they are ready. In terms of investments, they will be aimed at opportunities that strengthen our existing value chain in Western Canada. For project-level returns, we said in the past that we were aiming at a return on capital in the range of 10%-15% before tax. Given higher interest rates and cost of capital, we are currently aiming for project-level returns of at least 13% before tax. The recent Pipestone expansion project is an excellent example of putting this new return on capital expectation into practice. Turning now to shareholder returns. Ultimately, dividends need to be paid out of distributable cash flow, and we aim for a payout ratio of 50%-70% of DCF.
The stability and growth of our dividends is supported by the high-quality cash flow from our fee-for-service business segments, which continue to grow. Finally, regarding share buybacks, they remain a possible tool that will be weighed against other capital allocation opportunities. As we've said in the past, our preference is to reinvest in growing the underlying business and continuing to compound returns throughout our integrated value chain. Given the margin growth we are seeing and the capital allocation context I just gave, here are our expectations for 2024. For the time being, marketing realized margins will be equal to our new base guidance of CAD 310 million-CAD 350 million. As mentioned previously, we will look to revise this with our Q1 results in May. Growth capital is expected to range from CAD 80 million-CAD 100 million.
This includes about CAD 60 million of sanctioned capital for various optimization projects, and CAD 20 million-CAD 40 million is earmarked for possible long lead items for two unsanctioned projects: KAPS Zone Four and a potential frac expansion at KFS. These projects are subject to getting appropriate contractual backing from customers and board sanction to move ahead. Maintenance capital is expected to range within CAD 90 million-CAD 110 million, which includes turnarounds at Wapiti and Strachan. It's important to note that about CAD 35 million of this is recoverable, CAD 20 million of which is recoverable in 2024, and the remaining CAD 15 million in future years.
In years where we don't have an AEF turnaround, we believe a reasonable go-forward run rate for maintenance capital will be between CAD 70 million and CAD 90 million. In years where we do have an AEF turnaround, the spend is expected to be higher. Cash taxes for 2024 are expected to be CAD 45 million-CAD 55 million.
So pulling this all together, next year is going to be a year of strong free cash flow generation as we enter a phase of lower capital spending relative to the past five years. This leaves more cash to pay down some higher rate short-term debt, to build more optionality on the balance sheet and return more cash to shareholders. Now, a quick look at our debt profile. Our weighted average interest rate on outstanding debt is less than 5%, including our hybrid debt, and we also have no material maturities coming until 2025. This means we have no need to refinance at current high rates in the near term. The recent S&P upgrade also helps to provide us with an improved cost of capital and ongoing financial flexibility. With that, I'll pass it back to Dean.
Before we open the line for questions and comments, I remind you of what we've covered today. One, we're on track for a very strong year. Two, we're well positioned to benefit as natural gas liquids keep growing in the basin. Three, as our cash flow grows, so does its quality. Four, we've increased our base guidance for the marketing business to CAD 310 million-CAD 350 million. Five, we've described our thinking on capital allocation in the near term. And finally, we provided our 2024 guidance, a year of strong free cash flow generation. We've had a great year of executing our strategy in 2023, and we have a clear plan for continued success in 2024.
On behalf of Keyera's Board of Directors and management team, I want to thank our employees, customers, shareholders, indigenous rights holders and other stakeholders for their continued support. With that, I'll turn it back to the operator for Q&A.
Thank you, Dean. And ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a three tone prompt acknowledging your request, and your questions will be polled in the order they are received. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by the number two. And if you are using a speakerphone, please keep the handset before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. And your first question comes from the line of Rob Hope from Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Good morning, everyone. First question is just on the capital outlook for 2024. You know, interesting that you're including the Zone Four expansion as well as the potential frac expansion there. You know, I would imagine that speaks to the confidence that you will be sanctioning these projects. So when you take a look at kind of the key milestones between now and sanctioning, you know, what do you think are the key gating factors, and when could we see additional clarity on these items?
Morning, Rob. It's Dean, and thank you for the question. It is a good one. You know, first of all, I'd like to just really emphasize that, you know, we have a strong year outlook for next year in 2025 with our 6%-7% growth outlook on EBITDA. Fee for service EBITDA, which is, you know, again, from expenditures or investments we've already made. With that, though, we do see, we do have a very strong outlook for the basin, and we think that that's gonna support more demand for capacity with our integrated system. And, you know, the areas that we see that will likely get, you know, the most demand is just more frac capacity.
So, you know, we are actively extending contracts on our capacity that we have already, which is great. So we see a lot of demand there. And, you know, we also see that there's going to be continued growth in BC, the BC Montney, as part of that Montney Fairway. So with that, you know, producers want a competitive alternative and that additional capacity built. So, you know, we are actively working on that project as well. I would emphasize that we will not sanction either of these projects without adequate contractual backing. So, but I would say that we are having, you know, very active discussions on both fronts.
So really, when you look at 2024, though, these are, you know, relatively small, you know, sort of capital commitments to advance these projects at this point. So, you know, we do have them in as a placeholder, but I do want to emphasize that we need the contractual backing to advance them.
All right, appreciate that. And then maybe just on the, kind of the 6%-7% CAGR, out to 2025. A couple of moving parts there, including kind of the higher base marketing guidance there as well. But when you take a look at kind of the decision to point to the upper end of the range, you know, what kind of key areas do you think have been outperforming versus kind of the prior expectations?
You know what? We're very pleased with the performance of our entire business. Like, all three business segments are performing very well, and we've certainly seen volume increases in our G&P side of our business, both in the north and the south, but you know, specifically at Wapiti and Pipestone, with our recent expansion of Pipestone. We see more growth up there. Simonette is an area that's gonna continue to grow. You know, we've talked a lot about the turnover of some big land blocks held by majors before, like Shell and XTO... Now they're in the hands of more active producers. We're seeing the development of the Duvernay up in that area. So, you know, we think that that's, you know, very positive for growth overall in our GCP business.
As you know, we have an integrated business though, so that's gonna help feed volumes in the KAPS. And on the downstream part of our business, you know, we're seeing growing volumes through our condensate system and also our storage and terminal assets. So overall, you know, we're seeing growth in volumes, which is driving sort of that higher fee-for-service EBITDA projection.
Thank you.
You know what? I mean, I guess it just—sorry, just lastly, I know your other question was more about the fee-for-service EBITDA, but I don't wanna leave out our marketing business, which, you know, again, it's a physical business, and with increased volumes that are flowing through infrastructure, it's helping to enable our marketing business to perform extremely well at the same time.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Kwan from RBC. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning. There are a lot of mentions here about balance sheet optionality, and so I just wanna get a sense as to how you're thinking about funding future CapEx. So when you think about the organic program, are you looking to live within a free cash flow positive constraint, an equity self-funded constraint, or is there a willingness to turn on, you know, drip, using ATM or even issue discrete equity to fund or organic growth CapEx?
Robert, that's a great question. I'll turn that over to Eileen.
Thanks, Robert. Yeah, great question. You know, as we said earlier, you know, compared to the past 5 years, we are moving to a period of lower capital spend. We have several strong projects ahead of us, and many of those Dean really touched on today, but they are smaller in scale, so relative to a KAPS, for example. So the... You know, based on our forecast and where our balance sheet is today, and as we look out, say, over the next two years, we feel very comfortable that we can fund these types of opportunities on a self-funding basis. So that's both equity and debt.
Okay. And I was just thinking a little bit of, you know, some of these low-carbon hub opportunities. If something larger came up, you know, how would you think about that? Or even, you know, Eileen, in the past, you've talked about a willingness to exceed 3x debt to EBITDA on a temporary basis if you saw the path to get back in. Has that thinking changed, or is 3x really a hard cap at this point?
It would really depend on the opportunity, and I think some of the spending with the Clean H2, you know, the hub, the low-carbon hub, a lot of that would come, you know, later on, probably, you know, in that 2026 time frame, more of that capital spend. And again, the capital spend will be, you know, split out, you know, over several years. But I do, again, wanna reiterate that, yeah, the three times, if there is a path down and it's the right opportunity, it's strategic, it has the right return profile, as long as we see, you know, a quick path down to get within our target, I think that's fine. You know, your other question about the drip, at this point, we have no intention of turning that back on.
Okay, that's great. If I can just finish on how you're approaching contractual, whether it's the KFS expansion, Zone 4, or frankly, anything else, what do you view as appropriate kind of contractual, you know... for example, what percentage do you want to be third-party contracts? What, you know, range of duration would you wanna see? And Dean, you kind of touched on it, but just to confirm, for something like KFS, that would apply to getting similar type extensions for KFS 1 and 2 before you would go forward with a third frac. Is that fair?
Yeah, that's right. You know what? You know, for competitive reasons, we don't really disclose as to what our contractual limits are or what our thresholds are. But you know what? I would say is, I'd refer you to our return on cap expectations, and, you know, our minimum threshold is in sort of 13%, or better, on infrastructure. Knowing that, you know, we can exceed that on a enterprise level when you think about the downstream benefits to the investments that we make. It could be upstream or downstream benefits, I should say. So, you know, that's really what the hurdle that we're trying to work towards, and certainly, we need to have line of sight to have the contracts to back that return.
Yeah, I was actually just asking a little bit more of what percentage of capacity would you wanna see covered by third-party contracts, and what average kind of duration would you be targeting?
Well, like I said, a lot of it, I mean, the return on cap is basically just a simplistic view, but we're looking at, like IRRs, like, pretax, unlevered IRRs as well. So I think the, you know, we look for long-term contracts, typically in a 10 year range or 10 year plus. But, you know, there's some variation to that as well, and again, a lot of it has to do with the IRR of what we can return. You know, we can get creative with some contracts as well, so it's not like a homogeneous kind of contracting process.
Overall, we have to get our heads around us, you know, generating a strong rate of return on just our infrastructure, and that will help leverage our returns for the rest of our business.
Got it. Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Robert Catellier from CIBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, thank you for the strong presentation this morning. I wondered if you can just spend a little bit more time elaborating on what Dow's recent decision to FID their net zero site and their ethylene cracker can mean for your company.
Yeah. Good morning, Rob, and I guess we're only taking questions from people that have a name Rob today. So, I think that's a great question. I think it's tremendously exciting, not just for our industry, but for Canada as a whole. I think it really demonstrates how, you know, when our provincial government and our federal government work together, we can do a lot of great things and attract a lot of investment to Alberta and obviously benefit all of Canada. So, you know, the first net zero cracker, ethane cracker, and for it to be in Fort Saskatchewan, right across the street from our KFS Frac and storage complex, I think is tremendously exciting. We have a lot of infrastructure in that area, obviously.
We have a lot of talent and as well. We have 10 pipes that cross right through Dow's land, so obviously we will work with Dow and, you know, see whether we can help support their project and help enable, you know, that to happen.
Okay, I don't want to diminish your achievements. You know, there have been numerous KAPS improvements in the G&P business, the KFS acquisition. Or I just wonder if you if you've given any thought to either expanding geographically or extending the value chain into other areas while you wait for some of the longer dated projects like the carbon hub to really materialize.
Would we extend our value chain?
Yeah. The question really is, do you think you need another growth platform for the interim period while you wait for some of the other elongated projects to materialize?
You know, I think that's a good question, Rob, but, you know, when we look at the macro, you know, especially with, notwithstanding some of the little blips that we see when on Trans Mountain, we do believe that it's actually gonna get into service sometime in the foreseeable future. And Coastal GasLink should be taking line fill here, you know, in the next couple of quarters. You know, that's pretty imminent. So we think that's gonna unlock growth in the basin. And with that growth, there's gonna be basin infrastructure and capacity that's gonna be required. So we think that we're very well positioned to help enable that growth, but it will require more capacity additions on our system. So we see growth opportunities off our system.
We talked about frac in zone three, zone four, but you know, on KAPS. But you know, I think incremental that we'll still see more opportunity for growth on our integrated system as well. And I think that'll bridge us you know, to you know, like I say, the latter half of the decade, where you know, I can foresee more growth opportunities at our low-carbon industrial hub at Fort Saskatchewan. But maybe just lastly, I mean, we're also always looking for ways to extend our value chain. So you know, we have the highest value market for butane with our iso-octane facility. We have you know, basically the condensate system that delivers the majority of diluent to the oil sand. So you know, we have the hub for that.
So, you know, we're always looking for ways to enhance our propane business too. And a lot of that right now is really trying to provide a lot of flexibility, access any market for propane, but we're always trying to extend those value chains.
Okay. That's a very helpful answer. Maybe I could just finish with the dividend question for Eileen. As you look at the 6%-7% growth for the fee-based cash flow, and understanding you already have your financial house in order here, how do you view returns to shareholders in terms of your preference for dividend growth versus repurchases? For example, if you're growing at 6%-7%, are you sort of targeting, you know, a much lower dividend increase level and opportunistically look at repurchases? Or are you, given your financial house is in order, would you consider something more aggressive on the dividend growth side?
Thanks, Robert. Yeah, great question. You know, I think, you know, if we step back and think about how we really approach the dividend, the dividend is the priority. We do look to grow the dividend in line with distributable cash flow per share. So that, and really that emphasis on growing that fee for service business, and so that's what we've talked about, that 6%-7% EBITDA growth really underpins the growth in the type of quality of cash flow that underpins the dividend. Again, the payout ratio, we target pretty conservative, so that it's sustainable through all business cycles, you know, like it was during the pandemic. You know, I think ultimately, we have strong confidence that we can sustainably grow the dividend, really two reasons.
One, right now, we're at the low end of our payout ratio, and two, we expect to deliver at the high end of that EBITDA growth out to 2025, while keeping marketing contributions flat. In terms of share buybacks, they do remain a tool that we can use opportunistically. But as we said, you know, before, reinvesting in that underlying business and compounding returns throughout the value chain, that's what we're really focused on.
Okay. Thanks very much, everyone.
Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Thanks. Good morning. Maybe just going back to Robert Kwan's question on, you know, your funding plan here. So it sounds like the goal is to stay to self-fund your CapEx, and I'm just trying to understand, you know, how high that could flex if Zone Four of KAPS goes through and KFS expansions go through. You know, on our math, if we look at our model, it's probably CAD 300 million -CAD 350 million of growth CapEx is where you get to that, you know, break-even point on a self-fund basis. Is that how high CapEx could go if some of these projects get sanctioned in the 2025-2026 timeframe, or would you look to stay below that level?
As I said, you know, in the past, like for those two projects, the CapEx, you know, we can fund within that kind of CAD 300 million-CAD 350 million range. And for those two projects in particular, the, you know, the capital spend will be spread out. It takes two to three years for these projects to develop. So within that, and where our balance sheet is today, we feel quite confident that we can self-fund both of those two projects in particular.
Got it. And then, maybe just recognizing it's early here on the marketing side, and you're gonna go into the recontracting season in April. But, you know, there's a lot of volatility on the butane side, Panama Canal and export constraints, and butane prices are now moving a little bit higher. So just curious for your high-level thoughts here in terms of, maybe some puts and takes of how you think the contracting season could go.
Yeah. So it's, it's Jamie. Thanks for the question. Yeah, I, butane has, you know, risen a little bit in, in the Gulf Coast, but I think we need to bring it back to the dynamics in Western Canada and ultimately the supply, demand within our basin. So you know, we're, you know, we're of the view that we're, we're likely still gonna see in 2024, butane prices that are in line, if not slightly below, what we would have realized in 2023.
And the fundamentals, as Dean spoke to, around as we see growth in the oil sands, we're gonna—and ultimately the natural gas that's gonna be routed towards the West Coast, we're gonna see significant liquids coming off of, you know, that natural gas and a pull from the oil sands for natural gas condensate, and ultimately the associated liquids that come with it. The supply, demand, you know, within our basin, you know, we look at it as we, you know, we're fairly confident that we're gonna see some stability in butane prices over the next few years.
Got it. And then, sorry, if I could just squeeze in one more question here on buybacks. I guess I know the preference here is for sanctioning more growth projects, and buybacks are kind of at the bottom of that capital allocation stack. But I'm just trying to understand, at what point would you consider doing buybacks? Would it be if you don't sanction, you know, Zone Four and KFS this year, that maybe in the back half of this year you would look to execute on those buybacks, assuming the price made sense because you would be generating a lot of free cash flow, or would it be the following year? Just trying to understand the timeline for that.
Yeah, that's a great question. And, you know, it's always a balance between your opportunity set that's in front of us. And right now, we see the opportunity set is very strong. So when we compare the two options, yes, the better option for us is to reinvest in the business, especially in the projects that we talked about today. But, but again, the share buybacks remain a tool, share price, et cetera. There are, you know, those are things that would go into that thinking, and, and putting an NCIB in place is something that's very easy to do, and we would do that at the appropriate time.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, should you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Kenny from National Bank Financial. Your line is open.
Thank you. Good morning. Just giving your free cash flow a look for next year and with your balance sheet already where you want it to be, I know Zone Four and KFS are coming, but just based on the growth across the basin right now, curious to get your thoughts on, you know, implementing a strategy to consolidate additional G&P capacity, either within your north or your south regions, just to help, you know, maybe accelerate the KFS expansion opportunity, assuming you can acquire further G&P capacity at, you know, multiples below where you could be buying back shares?
Patrick, it's Dean, and I should maybe hire you for our corp dev group here in our company. But listen, we're very pleased that we have a fully integrated system. And I should mention both in the deep basin and obviously out in the Montney as well. And, you know, as we see the basin growing, you know, we think that there's... and, you know, one thing I want to point out is that we're always looking for ways to make our-
... our system, integrated system now more efficient, and you know, more competitive. And so with that, we see, you know, we think that there's going to be opportunities across our entire value chain to continue to enhance it. And so we're certainly open for opportunities like that. Gene V could be part of it, part of that footprint, and as you know, we've made some tremendous investments up to establish a very strong footprint up there already. So yeah, it could happen anywhere in our value chain. But I would mention that it has to be on strategy, any acquisition that we would consider, which is really enhancing our Western Canadian integrated value chain.
It would have to be aligned with our financial parameters, that we've been very disciplined to, to stay within the 2.5-3 times debt to EBITDA, and it has to be value creative for our shareholders. So if we meet those three criteria, certainly we're open to look at opportunities like that. And as we've discussed this morning, you know, we have tremendous flexibility in our balance sheet to help make something like that happen, should the opportunity arise.
Okay, that's perfect. Thanks, Dean. And then maybe just switching over to the iso-octane. Can you just provide maybe a little bit more color on what new markets are being accessed here? You know, what's supporting the structural uptick in premiums? Just to, I guess, establish that floor expectation of CAD 310 million per year. And I guess, too, I might have missed it, but I didn't see any sensitivities. I'm wondering if you could provide, you know, whether it's volumes up or down 5%, commodity prices, FX rates. Just wondering what market dynamics could cause the marketing results to either fall below the short end of that range or continue to exceed the top end.
Sure. I'll turn that over to Jamie to answer.
Yeah. So thanks. Thanks, Pat. Yeah, like, I mean, we're really seeing some positive momentum in the fact that we're diversifying some of the markets on the iso-octane side. And really, that's driven by some evolving regulations in certain jurisdictions and states down in the U.S. that now are requiring cleaner burning gasolines. And iso-octane is a really unique and preferential product in the gasoline blending pool that, you know, that has as a result of those changing regulations, we've seen some increased demand for those, for our product in those jurisdictions, right? So, you know, before COVID, we sold the majority of our iso or iso-octane down into the Gulf Coast, and ultimately it was distributed from there.
Now we're starting to see the opportunity to, on a ratable basis, sell that product into those markets. And that allows us to extract a higher premium than we otherwise would see in the Gulf Coast, and also some reduced rail costs to get it to those markets. So that's really what's driving it is those factors.
Okay, that's-
Maybe just to add on. Maybe just add on to Jamie's comments is that, you know, we only produce roughly 14,000 bpd of the product. So in the, in the context of the whole gasoline pool and the octane pool, like, it's very small. So Jamie said, like, every bit of demand that we add for that product, it just, it just helps us maintain a high premium for, for the product when we sell it. So, that's been very good for our margins.
Okay, that's great. And we can follow up offline, but if there were any sensitivities you could provide, that would be great, too.
That's great. Thanks for the question.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Dan Cuthbertson for closing remarks.
Thanks, all, for your participation today. As always, please feel free to contact our investor relations team with any additional questions or contacts. Wishing everyone a great day. Thank you.
Thank you, presenters, and ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.