Good morning, welcome to the Keyera strategic growth outlook and 2026 guidance call. At this time, all participants are in listen- only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question- and- answer session. To queue up for the questions by phone, please press star one. I would like to remind everyone that this conference is being recorded today, June 15th, 2026. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Tyler Monzingo, Senior Specialist, Investor Relations. Tyler, please go ahead.
Thank you, good morning. Joining me today are Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO, and Eileen Marikar, Senior Vice President and CFO. We'll begin with prepared remarks from Dean and Eileen. After that, we'll open the line for questions. Before we move forward, I'll remind you that some of the comments we'll make today relate to future events and are forward-looking in nature. We will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Full details regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP disclosures can be found in the notes to these slides, on our website, and in our public filings on SEDAR. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dean.
Thanks, Tyler, good morning, everyone. Last month, we reached an important milestone for Keyera. We've closed the Plains NGL acquisition and are now entering the next phase of growth and value creation for the newly expanded platform. Today, we'll walk through the evolution of our integrated platform, our track record of disciplined execution and value creation, and how the Plains acquisition will strengthen our business and create more value for customers. We'll then cover the strong outlook for NGL volume growth across Western Canada. From there, we'll move into our updated long-term growth targets. We'll also discuss the pro forma Marketing segment, including 2026 Marketing guidance. Finally, we'll review our financial framework and full 2026 financial guidance. We'll move through the presentation in the order shown on this slide. Beginning with the strategic overview section, our strategy has been very consistent over time.
Build the most efficient NGL value chain to maximize value for customers through reliable service and superior connectivity to high-value markets. Starting back in 2008, our foundation was our south region gas plants, extracting NGL mix and getting products to high-value markets. From the beginning, the business was built around three core parts of our value chain: Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing. Even in the early years, the focus was on integrating those capabilities to efficiently connect supply to demand across the systems. That focus on connectivity, reliability, and customer netbacks continues to define the business today. By 2014, we made several important strategic moves. First, the creation of FSCS, our industry-leading condensate system. Second, AEF. It allows us to upgrade butane into isooctane, accessing higher value markets. Thirdly, Simonette. This established our north region presence and positioned us to connect growing Montney supply.
All three of these assets continue to be important drivers of value today. By 2020, we were continuing to build scale and connectivity as we continued to grow along the growth of the basin. The Keylink pipeline more efficiently connected our southern gas plants directly into our downstream infrastructure. At the same time, we continued expanding our north region Montney footprint through the addition of the Pipestone and Wapiti gas plants. We also strengthened our condensate platform through participating in a 30% interest in the Norlite pipeline. By 2025, we had fully integrated our north region Gathering and Processing business with the rest of our value chain, creating a more efficient, reliable and competitive system for customers. The KAPS pipeline provided a direct connection between our north region assets and Fort Saskatchewan. This project significantly changed the competitive landscape for producers along the Montney and Duvernay fairway.
For Keyera, it substantially improved system utilization, connectivity, and competitiveness. Last year, we sanctioned KAPS Zone 4, extending our reach further into the Montney and providing customers in Northeast B.C. with access to our integrated value chain. We also sanctioned additional frac expansions and most recently, our ACE Rail Terminal to further support growing customer demand. Together, this has created a highly integrated platform delivering meaningful value for customers. That value is reflected in the strong level of long-term customer commitments and increasingly contracted cash flow across our integrated value chain. Slide 13 shows the results of the execution of our growth strategy and the investments made. Since 2008, fee-based margins have grown about an 8% annual compounded growth rate. Which brings us to the next slide, which highlights our proven ability to sustainably grow the dividend over time.
As we continued to reinvest in growing the fee-based business, ECF per share steadily increased, supported by both fee-based growth and contributions from our Marketing segment. Importantly, we achieve that growth while remaining financially disciplined. Leverage was consistently maintained within and at times below our target range. This is shown by the orange line along the bottom of the chart. That balance sheet strength provides the capacity to reinvest through business cycles. The result has been consistent and sustainable dividend growth over time, as shown by the dark blue bars. This disciplined approach has translated into strong long-term shareholder returns. Since 2008, total shareholder return has averaged over 16% annually. We intend to continue applying the same focus on strategy execution and financial discipline going forward. With the Plains acquisition, we are now entering our next phase of disciplined growth and value creation.
It expands our geographic reach, improves efficiency across the value chain, and enhances our competitiveness. Having successfully closed the transaction in its entirety, we'll be making our submission to the Competition Tribunal on June 17th and remain very confident in the strength of our case. For customers, this acquisition means broader market access, stronger netbacks and improved reliability. This competitiveness shows up across all products. In condensate, we operate the leading condensate system supplying the oil sands. In butane, AEF enables premium margins. In propane, we can now efficiently access all major markets. In ethane, Empress adds scale and flexibility. Together, this creates a fully integrated system that offers more value for our customers. Slide 17 compares what we said at launch with what we're seeing today. Overall, the transaction is performing at or above expectations. We continue to expect mid-teens accretion.
We now see greater synergy capture than initially identified, improving returns and lowering the effective acquisition multiple. Deleveraging has shifted modestly due to the transaction timing and the AEF outage in 2026. Yet we still expect to be back within our targeted range around the end of 2027. The acquisition will allow us to materially exceed our previous 2024-2027 fee-based growth targets on a per-share basis. After the step change from the Plains acquisition, we are further extending fee-based growth targets to be 7%-8% from 2027-2029. Before walking through the specific drivers of that growth, let me first spend a minute on the broader macro fundamentals supporting long-term growth across the basin and how Keyera is positioned to enable and benefit from those trends.
Global demand for oil, natural gas, and NGLs continues to increase, while Western Canada remains one of the most competitive sources of supply globally. As Canadian crude export capacity expands, oil sands production is expected to continue growing, driving increasing demand for condensate used as diluent. To meet that demand, producers continue to target high-value, condensate-rich regions like the Montney and Duvernay. That increased activity also increases production of natural gas and other NGLs like ethane, propane and butane. At the same time, increasing LNG and LPG export capacity is improving pricing and market access for those products. This further supports basin development. As shown on the charts, most incremental NGL growth is expected to come from the Montney and Duvernay plays, where our assets are well positioned to serve growing customer demand.
Our integrated system is set up to enable customers to maximize the value of those products by processing them and connecting them to high-value end markets, which ultimately drives increasing volumes across our platform. With that context, let me now turn to Keyera's specific growth outlook. We're able to deliver industry-leading, highly visible, fee-based adjusted EBITDA growth out to the end of the decade. From 2025-2027, we expect fee-based EBITDA to grow about 16% on average annually, largely driven by the Plains acquisition and near-term synergies. Following that step change, we expect to deliver 7%-8% average annual growth from 2027-2029. Importantly, this growth is supported by tangible drivers already underway, including sanctioned projects, capacity fill across the system, and identified synergies. Also important, this growth is coming from continuing to do what we do best.
It is fully aligned with our core strategy and integrated value chain. As integration progresses, we expect to further define additional medium-term synergies. As we continue advancing that work, we expect to provide a further update on our progress around the end of this year. Beyond 2029, we continue to develop a deep inventory of additional growth projects, which I'll touch on later in this presentation. First, let me walk through in more detail the key drivers supporting our growth targets. Starting with synergies. Here, I'll make three points. First, we delivered about CAD 90 million of annual run rate synergies at closing, substantially achieving our original target on day one. This came almost entirely from corporate cost savings. Second, we now have visibility to increase our near-term synergy target to within a range of CAD 120 million-CAD 140 million.
Third, we continue to see additional upside above what is reflected in our current outlook. Medium and longer-term synergies will remain a meaningful and growing driver of value creation. As I said, we look forward to updating our view on synergies at a later date. Let me now move to the top of our integrated value chain with Gathering and Processing. Over the past several years, we have strategically positioned our North Region assets to be in the fastest-growing and most liquids-rich parts of the basin, particularly across the Montney and Duvernay. These assets connect directly into KAPS and the rest of our integrated value chain, allowing us to maximize value for customers while increasing utilization across a broader system. As you can see on the chart, strong customer demand continues to drive increasing throughput across the North Region.
The blue dotted line represents available processing capacity that we've been able to add over time, and the blue bars show expected throughput growth as those assets continue to fill. All of the growth reflected in the blue bars is included in the growth outlook we discussed earlier. The orange dotted line highlights potential upside beyond the forecast, driven primarily by opportunities to further expand both the Wapiti and Simonette complexes over the next few years. Additionally, we continue to pursue a disciplined buy- and- build strategy to further strengthen the top end of our integrated value chain. Beyond 2029, we continue to evaluate greenfield opportunities. For example, we've licensed a development opportunity in the Gold Creek area for potential future development. Moving further downstream to KAPS. KAPS connects our North Region supply to Fort Saskatchewan and provides a highly competitive path to downstream markets.
It has been instrumental in driving growth across our integrated system. The pipeline is highly contracted, and volumes have now exceeded initial design capacity for condensate. We've been adding pumping capacity to accommodate additional contracted volumes. Last year, we sanctioned the construction of Zone 4 to extend the system further to connect into Northeast British Columbia, another high-growth area of the Montney. This project remains on time and on budget. Volumes on KAPS will continue to ramp up into the next decade. Moving further downstream to our frac business in Fort Saskatchewan. Over time, we have focused on building a reliable, efficient, and flexible frac platform to help customers maximize value for their products. The addition of PFS, now called KFS North, allows us to deliver an even more reliable, efficient, and competitive service offering to customers. It increases operational flexibility and redundancy across the system.
We also have significant additional growth underway. We have two smaller 8,000-barrel-per-day expansions through the KFS 2 debottleneck and KFS North Phase 2 projects. The KFS 2 debottleneck is now in service, and the remaining capacity expansion is being added later this year. Then the much larger 47,000-barrel-per-day KFS 3 expansion will be in service in mid-2028. All of these projects continue to advance on schedule at or below budget. Importantly, substantially all current and future capacity is contracted under long-term agreements. This provides highly visible growth and further strengthens the quality and durability of cash flow across the platform. As liquids production from fractionation continues to grow, efficient access to end markets becomes increasingly important. That is why we partnered with two other leading Canadian infrastructure companies, CN and AltaGas, to create the most efficient and scalable path from Fort Saskatchewan to global markets.
This is a strong Canadian infrastructure story. Keyera brings the Fort Saskatchewan land, supply connectivity, and the ACE Rail Terminal. CN brings a rail network. AltaGas brings growing West Coast export capacity. Together, we're effectively creating a pipeline on wheels through a highly efficient unit train loading system that will move products to premium export markets, allowing customers to further maximize netbacks. The project is now under construction and enables scalable expansions as additional product demand develops over time. Turning now to condensate. Keyera already operates the most extensive and efficient condensate system in the basin. This business is supported by long-term contracts with all major oil sands producers for both transportation and storage services. As oil sands production continues to grow, demand for condensate as diluent is expected to increase alongside it.
Over the planning period, we're seeing contracted volumes continue to ramp up, we see several capital-efficient opportunities to support the growth. These include initiatives such as drag-reducing agents, targeted debottlenecking, and additional infrastructure that improves overall system flexibility and capacity. You can see the expected volume growth profile on the chart on the bottom, the right-hand side. Looking further ahead, slide 28 highlights several opportunities that will help extend the growth runway beyond 2029. I'll just daylight a few here, there will be more to come on this front, we'll update the market as we continue to make progress. First, in our G&P segment, we'll continue to pursue our buy- and- build strategy to provide more customers along the Montney and Duvernay fairway, our full suite of integrated services. This allows them to maximize the value of their barrels.
As mentioned before, we have already licensed a location for a potential new facility in the Gold Creek area near Wapiti. Secondly, as utilization across the KAPS system continues to increase, we're evaluating several options to expand capacity. These include measures such as adding more pumping stations and introducing drag-reducing agents. Thirdly, as volumes grow and energy markets develop further, it will make sense to further extend our ACE Rail Terminal in lockstep with market demand. Lastly, we see several capital-efficient opportunities to further expand our condensate platform as pipeline expansions and oil sands growth continue to drive diluent demand. We expect a meaningful step change in demand over the coming years. Stepping back, we have several highly visible drivers supporting continued fee-based EBITDA growth through 2029 and beyond. That growth is supported by sanctioned projects, capacity fill across the integrated system, and synergy realization already underway.
This supports a growing base of highly visible and durable cash flow that supports sustainable dividend growth over time. With that, I'll turn it over to Eileen to walk through the Marketing segment and our updated Marketing outlook.
Thanks, Dean. The Marketing segment remains a key differentiator for Keyera. It enhances customer netbacks, drives volume across our integrated system, and supports higher returns on invested capital. It also generates meaningful cash flow that can accelerate deleveraging and reinvestment. With the Plains assets, the Marketing business becomes larger and more diversified while continuing to operate under the same disciplined risk management framework. This slide outlines how the Marketing business generates value. It's essentially a volume times margin business. For both isooctane and frac spread, margins are driven by the spread between input costs and realized product pricing. That margin is multiplied by volume. Across the broader Marketing business, we connect products to the most attractive end markets and capture margin through logistics, optimization, and market access. The platform is primarily driven by physical positions supported by our infrastructure.
Risk is actively managed through a disciplined framework with senior management oversight and a formal committee that meets weekly to review exposures and ensure positions remain within approved limits. Moving on now to our 2026 Marketing segment guidance. We expect Marketing realized margin to be between CAD 360 million and CAD 390 million. This guidance incorporates a partial year contribution from the Plains assets, as well as the impact of planned outages at AEF, the Empress straddle facilities, and KFS. Consistent with historical seasonality, Marketing realized margin is weighted toward the second half of the year. It also reflects disciplined risk management activities and conservative assumptions and is designed to be achievable with a high degree of confidence. We have assumed more typical isooctane premiums for the balance of the year, providing room for potential upside should current market conditions persist.
Looking further ahead, once the combined Marketing platforms have operated together for a period of time, we intend to reintroduce a long-term baseline Marketing margin guidance range for the combined business. I will now move to capital allocation priorities and our financial framework. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. First, we preserve balance sheet strength and financial flexibility. Second, we invest in high-quality, fee-based growth. Third, we aim for sustainable dividend growth. This framework has been consistent over time and continues to guide how we allocate capital. I'll start with financial strength, which is highlighted at the top of the table. Maintaining a strong balance sheet has always been core to Keyera's strategy. It allows us to navigate market volatility and remain opportunistic when deploying capital. Importantly, the Plains transaction was structured to preserve our investment-grade credit ratings, reflecting that continued discipline.
In the near term, leverage is expected to move modestly above our target range. We expect to return within our target range around the end of 2027. Turning now to our investment criteria. We focus on strengthening and extending our integrated value chain. Capital is allocated to projects and acquisitions that grow stable, fee-based cash flow, meet our return thresholds, and are strategically aligned with our platform. We target returns in the range of 10%-15% on a standalone basis, with additional upside through integration across our system. Finally, returning cash to shareholders. Our ability to sustainably grow the dividend is supported by three factors: the growth of fee-based cash flow, a strong balance sheet, and a conservative payout ratio of 50%-70% of distributable cash flow.
Following the closing of the Plains transaction, we expect to be at the low end of that range, providing capacity for future dividend growth. Dividend decisions are made by the Board on a quarterly basis. I will now move to our 2026 financial guidance. For 2026, we are providing the following guidance. We expect continued growth in fee-based EBITDA consistent with the outlook we have discussed. Growth capital is expected to range from CAD 550 million-CAD 625 million, primarily directed toward advancing our major projects. Maintenance capital is expected to be between CAD 240 million and CAD 260 million, and cash taxes are expected to be between CAD 70 million and CAD 90 million. With that, I will turn it back to Dean for closing remarks.
Thanks, Eileen. To close out, there are four key points that I would like to leave you with. First, we have a proven track record of disciplined execution, financial discipline, and long-term value creation. Second, with the Plains acquisition, we are entering the next phase of growth and value creation with a larger, more competitive platform. Third, the growth outlook we have outlined today is highly visible, supported by tangible projects and existing commercial agreements already underway, with additional upside potential still to be captured. Finally, we will continue applying the same financial and execution discipline that has defined Keyera over time as we focus on creating long-term value for both our customers and shareholders. We look forward to providing a more comprehensive update on our expected synergies, growth outlook, cash flow quality, and expanded Marketing platform around the end of the year.
I will now turn it back over to the operator for Q&A.
Thank you. If you are on the phone and wish to ask a question, please press star one. The first question comes from Aaron MacNeil with TD Cowen. Your line is now open.
Morning all. Thanks for taking my questions. You've outlined a number of potential capital-light or capital-efficient growth opportunities. Can you speak to the potential quantum of the opportunity in terms of total capital that you have visibility to and the potential range of build multiples that you'd expect across those opportunities?
Morning, Aaron, thanks very much for your question. I'll just turn this over to Eileen in a minute here. The first thing I want to point out is that, yes, we have some great growth opportunities, which obviously are going to be available. We'll see more and more of that as the basin grows. At the same time, we also want to point out that in addition to the guidance that we provided for the next 12 months of synergies that we expected to capture, we certainly believe that we are going to identify synergies above that that will also help deliver more growth to our EBITDA and cash flow per share. We just closed this transaction, the Plains acquisition, a month ago. We're still getting up to speed on getting more information on the magnitude of those opportunities.
We believe that those will likely be the most capital efficient, basically the lowest hanging fruit in the company, and we will pursue that with as much urgency as possible. Outside of that, Eileen, do you want to comment on the capital- efficient growth opportunities?
Yeah. I think the only thing I would add to what you said, Dean, is that any opportunities will follow our existing investment approval process. Again, as we said before, we target that 10%-15% return on capital on a standalone basis. Based on the projects that we have sanctioned, we've been well within that range, again, standalone. When you look at things on an integrated basis, the returns are just that much stronger.
Got you. Maybe sort of the follow-on question to sort of get at this from a different perspective. Between now and 2029, how would you characterize your balance sheet capacity that you could deploy towards incremental growth projects, taking into account both your leverage targets and sort of a normal cadence of dividend increases?
Eileen?
Thanks, Aaron. I think as we noted in the presentation, the first priority is to bring our balance sheet back within our targeted range. Based on our forecast, which again, has a very more conservative view on our Marketing pe rformance. We have the opportunity to lever, I think, quicker than what is that end of 2027 timeframe.
In terms of the way we even financed the Plains transaction was to be able to be flexible so that when opportunities do arise, we have the ability to lean into those opportunities. Again, Simonette East is a great example of, in December, that opportunity came, we were able to execute on that, and that has immediate cash flow. When there is those types of acquisitions, those are great. They tend to be very neutral or even sometimes positive to the balance sheet. Those are things that we will continue to look at. Again, it's always going to be a competition for capital, and we're always going to lean into the things that add the most value across the value chain.
Gotcha. Thanks, folks. I'll turn it back.
Thanks, Aaron .
Your next question comes from Spiro Dounis with Citi. Your line is now open.
Thanks, operator. Good morning, team. I want to go back to the growth projects quickly. Dean, you mentioned several opportunities, I think you put them in the context of beyond 2029, I'm curious if you also see opportunities within that 2029 timeframe, specifically thinking about some potential low-hanging fruit, as you called it, related to these newly acquired assets that maybe could lead to some upside to the outlook you provided today.
Yeah. Good morning, Spiro. Yes. Probably wasn't clear in articulating my comments there. Certainly, the guidance that we provided, the CAD 120 million-CAD 140 million extends out for 12 months, essentially, so into 2027. We haven't provided guidance on that yet. Again, people have to understand that we had to operate both companies as separate entities right until close. We weren't privy to a lot of the details of contracts and things like that until we closed. Now that we have all that information in hand, we're just getting up to speed as to the details and nitty-gritty behind it.
When you think about the three different buckets of synergies that we identified right from day one, from June 2025 when we closed the transaction or we announced the transaction, the three different buckets of corporate cost savings, the cost efficiencies and the commercial synergies. After the first month, what we see is opportunities greater than what we would've modeled and identified when we put our initial numbers together. I would say that the probability of being able to capture those synergies is probably higher than what we would've originally modeled as well. We feel very confident about what this is going to translate in terms of value creation for our shareholders. We just won't be able to quantify that in greater detail until probably closer to the end of the year.
Gotcha. Sorry if I misspoke. That was helpful, it was actually my second question, I guess what I was getting at was more around growth projects. You had identified a few expansion projects that I think you sort of highlighted as beyond 2029. I guess what I was curious about was, could anything sneak inside this timeframe within 2029 from a growth perspective that maybe leads to upside on the outlook today?
I think that growth projects, other than small, again, on the Plains side, we think that there's going to be small growth opportunities. Keep in mind that they've been capital-starved for quite some time. We think that there are some low-capital, high-return projects that we'll be able to pursue within that timeline. Anything significant, if we were to acquire or, sorry, build a new gas plant or things like that, it would largely fall out of that 2029 window, just given the amount of time it takes to complete all the engineering and feed work on it and actually construct the asset. Eileen, do you want to just comment what's actually in our guidance so far based on our revised outlook out to 2029?
Absolutely. I do want to reiterate, we are providing industry-leading fee-based growth that really reflects our base case. It includes the projects that are already underway, synergies that we just updated to that CAD 120 million- CAD 140 million that we feel is quite conservative, as well as the regular ramp on KAPS. What it does not include is any unsanctioned growth or synergies beyond that CAD 140 million. When you layer on that with a positive macro outlook, I think our fee-based growth out to 2029 is quite conservative. I think the last thing I would say is that the growth is 100% on strategy. It is all about enhance, extend our NGL value chain.
Got it. That's helpful. That's exactly what I was looking to get. Maybe just a second quick one, kind of a tag-along to Aaron's earlier question. As you think about M&A, obviously, you've just completed this transaction and want to digest it. Balance sheet, I think you mentioned late 2027 is kind of when it comes back within target. As you think about small bolt-on, maybe tuck-in type M&A, are you out of the market till that time, or you feel like the balance sheet's got enough flex to keep you in it?
That's a good question. Obviously, our focus is on just continuing to integrate and capture synergies with Plains. Certainly, we see, as I mentioned, a lot of low-hanging fruit there. As Eileen mentioned, that we expect to delever throughout to the end of 2027 to get within our 2.5x-3x range, which provides more flexibility. We always want to make sure that we maintain a strong balance sheet. Again, we also look for opportunity at the same time. I think that any opportunities that we might pursue would have to be just highly strategic, high-value opportunities that would be incremental to what we've just done.
Great. I'll leave it there for today. Thank you, everyone.
Yeah.
Oh, sorry.
Thank you. Yeah, as Eileen said, though, it'd definitely have to be on strategy and really creating value to our integrated system.
Understood. Thanks again.
Yeah. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Sam Burwell with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Hey, guys. Good morning. Wanted to unpack the upside Plains synergies just a little bit more. It seems like these could be a benefit to the existing 2027- 2029 CAGR. Curious, how much of these synergies would require no CapEx versus some of these highly synergistic capital projects that you've called out so far?
That's hard to quantify right now. Thanks for the question, Sam. We need more time to sort of quantify that. I've talked to a number of our leaders already in the first month from different groups that are in charge of running these assets. What I can say is, they're capturing synergies on the fly. They're seeing opportunities that we wouldn't have identified before, and they're just capturing on the fly as they go. There's going to be a period where we have to aggregate what that all translates to. At the same time, there's going to be some opportunities that require a bit of engineering, which will require some capital and we'll have to, again, with time, quantify that. I'd say there's also commercial synergies, some that we can probably capture ourselves.
Some of that might be waiting till next April for, let's say the propane contracting season and things like that, how we would structure contracts versus what we inherited from Plains. Some of it also involves having to work with third parties to capture commercial opportunities, we have to work with other third parties to understand how feasible they would be. I just want to make sure that people walk away with the notion that we see a tremendous amount of opportunity. It's just going to take a bit more time to, again, quantify in the way the market would probably want to learn more about it.
Okay. Got it. Understood. Next question ties to both Marketing and maintenance CapEx. You called out the Empress turnaround. I was curious if you could maybe quantify what that means for maintenance CapEx so we have a better idea of run rate going forward. I guess between that and more broadly on Marketing, what sort of uptime are you assuming across all the assets that contribute to Marketing for the rest of the year?
Sam, I'll pass that over to Eileen, she'll respond to your question.
Sure. As it relates to the Empress outage, that is expected to be in that Q3, Q4 timeframe, it is expected to be several weeks in duration, that is built into our updated maintenance capital guidance that we provided. Typically, the straddles are every —there's five straddles at Empress, each one has a maintenance outage every 10 years, this is a larger one for Empress 6, as well as the fractionation also having the turnaround as well. Also the KFS North, that's the old PFS facility. I do want to point out that that also will be going down for several weeks in the third quarter, as that's mainly to bring on the frac debottleneck. That's exciting. The one thing I do want to point out is that this is the benefit of having two platforms together.
It does benefit the customer because we are able to mitigate some of the outage impacts to our customers by providing them with the C3+ storage. Plains, the PFS site on its own, does not have C3+ storage. This is just another benefit to having the two platforms together. As we look at the Marketing, we really step back and look at the year. I think the three key most impactful items were, of course, on our side, the legacy Keyera Marketing was the outage at AEF. That was very impactful. As the facilities come up in early Q, it does take time for those sales to start to recognize those sales and as they go into their final destination. The second quarter, I would expect to be weak.
The other pieces of the Marketing guidance for 2026 are related to the Plains part of the business. One is, as you are aware, we have the 12-month hedge with Plains to protect our downside. Also, for a certain amount of volumes, there wasn't much upside as well. I think that's important to know that we did lock it in and it's proven to do so. Now we're about 90% hedged. The other thing I would note on the Plains part of the business is that it tends to be very seasonal because it's mostly propane. You have a third in the first quarter, a third in the fourth quarter, and then the balance in the second and third quarters. Of course, the mid-May close would have an impact as well.
As we look at potential catalysts for upside, it is those premiums for isooctane as we really get into the summer months. It is potentially more bought volumes through the Eastgate that are available to be throttled. The other would be, as we get into the winter, potential better premiums for propane, whether it is the Far East Index or volumes going to the East.
Okay, awesome. Very much appreciate the color.
Yeah, thank you.
Your next question comes from Robert Catellier with CIBC. Your line is [inaudible]
Hey, good morning. Thank you for the presentation. I'm wondering, just with respect to risk management, having more Marketing exposure, how does that impact your risk management philosophy? Is there an opportunity to keep the same value at risk, but hedge more frac spread relative to isooctane? Because it's not possible to hedge those premiums anyway. By overweighting frac spread hedges, you could lower the basis risk and outage risk associated with AEF.
Yeah. Good morning, Rob, thanks for the question. I'll turn that over to Eileen too, but I just want to say that I'm very pleased that with the hedge that we put in place with Plains and the subsequent hedges that we locked in since closing over the last month or so, I'm very pleased that we have a large proportion of that frac spread locked up for the remainder of 2026. As you heard, about 50% in 2027. Again, that gives us a lot of certainty in our capability to be able to deliver our balance sheet and reserve that, restore that financial flexibility. Eileen, do you want to talk about our risk management strategy?
Yes. Absolutely. I would say overall, Robert, our risk management strategy doesn't really change. That's really how we got comfortable with introducing the frac spread business to our Marketing as well. Because it is, again, it's the AECO, which we would normally hedge as well with our existing business, but certainly to a far larger extent now. Then it's the corresponding natural gas liquids, propane in particular, so, and FX as well. Those are things that we're already very used to as part of our program. Then in terms of, yes, the frac spreads, how that might change between how we hedge versus maybe take some potential exposure, I think as it relates to the frac spreads, we're going to be very prudent.
Just even saying that as we saw those spreads really be proven widened into even next year, we have locked in more than 50% of our exposures into next year. I think, again, we feel like that's the prudent thing to do. I would say that those spreads are at a better rate than what we would've included in our deal piece. We feel good about that. In terms of isooctane, I don't think a lot changes there. Obviously, as you know, the premium is something that cannot be hedged anyway. As for the RBOB cracks, again, with all of the volatility that we saw this year, we really saw those RBOB cracks even into next year, even a little bit into 2028. Really wide and very strong cracks. We've been layering those into next year as well.
Again, overall, we think we're really set up well for next year, into 2027.
Okay. That's very good context. Then, my second question was just on capital allocation. Acknowledging that your capital allocation priorities, they're largely unchanged here. How are you approaching dividend growth given that you've seen a step change in fee-based EBITDA and there's a high level of synergy capture already and you're hinting to future upside and you have a strong hedge book? I know you don't pay out on the Marketing income, it seems like you have at minimum, a step change in the EBITDA and some very good synergy capture and maybe some upside and you've de-risked the business. What's management's current thinking about a dividend increase, the next dividend increase? Are you going to just keep to the smaller sustainable increase or is there an opportunity for something larger here?
Eileen, do you want to answer that?
I can start. Yeah, Robert, as you said, take it back to our capital allocation priorities. It is balance sheet back within target. That's the number 1 priority. Then it's out to allocate to those highest value growth opportunities. Dean talked about many of them, organic, inorganic. The goal is to continue to grow that fee-based cash flow. You continue to, as you said, have very strong fee-based EBITDA growth. Ultimately it is based on distributable cash flow and we want to make sure that dividend is sustainable for the long term. We really are targeting that payout at the lower end of the target range. Again, as you saw from the presentation, we are very proud of that long history of dividend growth.
Those are some of the principles that we think about, ultimately the timing and the amount would be important.
Yeah. Just maybe to emphasize what Eileen's saying, Rob, is that right now, obviously we've stretched our balance sheet a bit to the higher end of our limit. Our first priority is going to be to bring it back in line, which again, we expect to happen by the end of 2027. Second of all, we see this as a really great environment to reinvest in infrastructure, just given what we're seeing in the basin and the amount of growth that we see. There's going to be a lot of infrastructure that will be required to enable that growth, and we're well positioned to capture a lot of market share there.
Understood. I think I'd take the same approach.
Your next question comes from—
Sorry, go ahead.
Your next question comes from Maurice Choy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Thanks, good morning and good evening to both of you. I wanted to break down your assumptions for 2027 and 2029 outlooks a little bit. Specifically, can you discuss where in your value chain do you see the greatest competition for volumes and margin? How do your outlook assumptions reflect this competition?
Yeah. Good morning, Maurice. You know what? Maybe I'll start with that. I'd say that a lot of our growth is contracted, we're going to see that growth and those contracts step up over time. Some of that relates to our G&P volume. Some of it relates to the volumes on our KAPS system and the contracts that's assigned there. They do ramp up over time. The amount of growth that we see in our condensate system. Overall, a lot of it's contracted, but it probably doesn't mean that we go super aggressive in capturing a significant amount of market share. A lot of that is all stuff that is within our reach already.
I think that for us to go above and beyond, I think that's where you start sanctioning perhaps a new gas plant, or you get into expansions of Simonette and Wapiti, which we think are probably realistic outcomes, just given the amount of growth that we see in a basin, plus some of the activity that we see around those facilities, which is very exciting. Eileen, do you have anything else you want to add?
No, I think you said it, Dean. It's largely we're well contracted, and even in the gathering processing, more than 70% of our margins are coming from the Montney gas plant. Long-term contracts there throughout the value chain. I don't really see a lot of volume risk in our base case, even with that guide.
Thank you. If I could finish with my second question about your assumptions on portfolio as well as synergies. Can I just confirm that the outlook for 2029 and also how you approach all these synergies includes all of your current Keyera and Plains assets as you have it today?
Eileen?
Yes. Yes, of course. Everything is on a 100%, we own and operate the full platform. Correct.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from Patrick Kenny with National Bank. Your line is now open.
Yeah, good morning. Thanks for the update today. Just on the back of the ACE Rail Terminal investment. We're hearing more and more about the demand for Western Canadian ethane to be exported off the West Coast into Asian markets. I'm just curious what sort of opportunities that could present for the integrated platform here, whether it's on the rail side, fractionation, or even within the Marketing group.
Yeah, good morning. Thanks for the question, Pat. First of all, we're very excited about the ACE Terminal. It's going to give us I think the best access out of the industrial heartland with our unit train facility to get barrels to the West Coast. Certainly the partnership with AltaGas and CN Rail, those are the right two partners to be working with. We like the terminal because we need a solution for propane. Once it's built, it's going to be easier to expand from there to include other products. One of those products, as you mentioned, could be ethane. With our asset base now, we are a much larger player in the ethane market. You think about our deethanizer at Fort Saskatchewan, our deethanizer at Rimbey, and then obviously the straddle facilities that we have at Empress.
When you add all that up, we have a lot of flexibility in ethane supply. We do have extra ethane supply at Empress right now that we're rejecting because we have a surplus that's uncontracted. The supply cost of supplying ethane to ultimately be exported to the West Coast is already in our system without us having to invest more capital. It's something that we're interested in. I think that it's going to take a while to develop an opportunity like that if it actually does get developed. It's certainly something that we're looking into amongst other opportunities for ethane.
Got it. Okay. Maybe just double-clicking on the Empress and Sarnia opportunities there. I guess if we do see an expansion of the TC Mainline, as part of the proposed settlement there. If you could just speak to potential upside, whether it's volumes or debottlenecking the straddles at Empress or perhaps storage down at Sarnia, what that could mean for the Eastern assets that you've acquired.
Yeah, that's a really good question. First of all, we are operating above our sanction case in terms of volumes that are flowing through Empress already. We have about a BCF of extra capacity to straddle more gas there, so without further investment. We do see opportunity there. We think that volumes are going to continue to increase through Empress naturally, and it's just because of all the natural gas demand for data centers, more export capacity for LNG out of the U.S. Gulf Coast, and also the Bakken solution gas declining over time as well. All of that bodes well for increased volumes, again, going east. We're also seeing that TC is, as you mentioned, is adding more capacity to go east. Some of the pipes that were derated 10 or 20 years ago, they're basically re-rating them to accommodate more gas.
I think that's all positive. It means that we'll get more product over time, the volume times margin gain. We like our opportunities out east as well to perhaps capture more market share out there because, again, there's been a lack of investment in infrastructure, whether it's truck or rail infrastructure or storage. We think there might be opportunities there to make some investments to expand our capacity out there to serve a greater market.
Okay. That's great color. Last one, if I could. Eileen, you mentioned that any additional sanction growth would be upside to this 7%-8% CAGR. Could you just confirm what the annual self-funded growth capital target would be out to 2029?
It really doesn't include any unsanctioned capital. It's really what we've already got in the hopper. I also do want to reiterate that the synergies, that CAD 120 million-CAD 140 million, doesn't include really any capital associated with that either. As we begin to delever, we will have the capacity. We see lots of opportunities to continue to grow and extend that growth rate beyond 2029. Again, we will provide more updates towards the end of the year.
That's great. Thanks. I'll leave it there.
Thanks, Pat.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Tyler for closing remarks.
Thank you all for joining us today. Feel free to reach out to the investor relations team for any additional questions. Have a great rest of your day. Thank you.
Thank you. The conference has now ended. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.