Good morning. Welcome to the MDA Space Ltd. Conference Call and Webcast. This call is being recorded on March 4th, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be provided at the time for you to queue up for questions. For those participating via webcast, please note that the company has included a presentation. Webcast participants can advance the slides by using the arrow seen in the presentation window. If anyone experiences audio difficulties during the conference, please press star followed by the zero for operator assistance at any time. I would now like to turn the call over to Jim Floros, Vice President of Investor Relations at MDA Space. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Kelly. Good morning and welcome to MDA Space's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call. Mike Greenley, our CEO, and Guillaume Lavoie, our CFO, will lead today's call and share some prepared remarks before taking your questions. A couple of housekeeping items before we begin. Today's call is accessible via webcast on our investor relations website. All our disclosures, including the press release, MD&A, and financial statements, are available from our investor relations website as well as SEDAR+. I would also like to remind you that today's call will include estimates and other forward-looking information which may differ from actual results. Please review the cautionary language in today's press release and public filings regarding various factors, assumptions, and risks that could cause actual results to differ. In addition, during this call, we will refer to certain non-IFRS financial measures.
Although we believe these measures provide useful supplemental information about our financial performance, these measures do not have any standardized meaning under IFRS, and our approach in calculating these measures may differ from that of other issuers and therefore may not be directly comparable. Please see the company's quarterly report and other public filings for more information about these measures, including reconciliations to the nearest IFRS measures. With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Mike.
Thank you, Jim. Good morning, and thank you to those joining us today to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. Before we get into our update, I want to start by acknowledging and thanking the MDA Space team for delivering another exceptional year of performance, our best yet since the IPO. The level of growth we achieved this past year would not have been possible without your hard work, innovation, and total mission focus. Our talented teams around the world are the reason we continue to be a trusted mission partner and leader in the expanding space and defense industry. In 2025, we delivered record results for both revenue and Adjusted EBITDA.
We grew revenues to $1.6 billion, an increase of more than 50% year-over-year, and expanded our Adjusted EBITDA to $324 million, up almost 50% versus last year. In addition, we maintained solid Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 20% for the full year 2025. Our financial performance enables us to continue investing in our business as we deployed $242 million in CapEx to support our growth initiatives while also generating positive free cash flow of $165 million. Taking a step back, 2025 built on MDA Space's track record of consistently delivering growth over the long term.
Since 2020, our backlog has grown seven times to CAD 4 billion, underpinning a revenue growth CAGR of 32% over the past five years, exceeding our stated goal of 20%-30%. Importantly, this growth has been profitable with demonstrated Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20% yet again in 2025. A key driver of this profitable growth relates to the investments we've made to develop industry-leading products and capabilities. We have been deliberate in our focus on R&D as a differentiator for MDA Space. We were ranked 32nd within Canada's top 100 corporate R&D spenders this year. This is the 3rd year in a row where MDA Space has been included in this ranking.
In addition, MDA Space ranks within the top 20 Canadian companies when it comes to overall size of our portfolio of patent families and within the top 10 Canadian companies when it comes to the annual patent filings in Canada over the last five years. We leverage our R&D investments to deliver value to our customers globally, and we combine this with disciplined operational execution to convert top-line growth into profitable cash-generating operations, resulting in a robust balance sheet and a conservative leverage profile. This provides us with flexibility to continue investing in our business, to capitalize on growth in our industry, as evidenced by the investments we are making in developing commercial and dual use products and services, expanding our manufacturing capacity, and increasing our vertical integration, such as the acquisition of SatixFy. Looking ahead, I'm pleased to introduce our 2026 financial outlook.
Our backlog of CAD 4 billion at the end of 2025 provides us with strong revenue visibility. For the full year, we expect revenues to be CAD 1.7 billion-CAD 1.9 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 10% at the midpoint. We expect full year Adjusted EBITDA to be CAD 320 million-CAD 370 million, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 7% at the midpoint, with Adjusted EBITDA margin of 18%-20%, in line with our original IPO guidance. We expect capital expenditures to be CAD 225 million-CAD 275 million to continue to support our growth initiatives. Lastly, we expect free cash flow to be neutral to negative for the full year due to normal working capital fluctuation on our existing programs and continued investments in growth CapEx.
As we think beyond 2026, the team is energized by the strong momentum and positive trends we are seeing in our end markets, and MDA Space has the right technology portfolio to capitalize on the opportunities ahead of us. We continue to expect to deliver significant revenue growth on average over the next several years. All over the world, governments, defense agencies, and corporations are finding new and valuable ways of using the capabilities of space with the benefits of space-based and dual-use solutions expected to grow significantly in the coming years. The space economy is estimated to have grown to $626 billion last year, according to Novaspace's Space Economy Report, and is forecasted to surpass $1.8 trillion by 2035, according to the World Economic Forum projections.
A tenfold reduction in launch costs over the past 10 years, combined with more powerful satellite technologies, supported a record 329 launch attempts in 2025, and 98% of those were successful. Demand for space-enabled global connectivity is expected to result in more than 43,000 satellites to be launched over a decade starting in 2025. Renewed interest in space exploration is expected to increase the number of missions by 185% over the next decade to 855, with a significant emphasis on establishing a sustained presence on the Moon. Space is increasingly emerging as a mission-critical and essentially an essential military domain, complementing the traditional fields of air, land, and sea.
Over the past year, we have observed defense spending on space by the world's leading powers surge to unprecedented levels as space has become critical to safeguarding national interests and evolving geopolitical environment. In particular, the U.S. dedicated $175 billion to its Golden Dome space defense architecture. Germany pledged EUR 35 billion for next-generation satellite and space situational awareness capabilities. Here at home, Canada confirmed that space will be a core element of its current 2% of GDP NATO defense spending commitment, with plans to increase this budget to 5% of GDP by fiscal year 2035-2036. At 5% of GDP, this would translate to approximately $155 billion in annual spend for Canada, an increase of $90 billion compared to fiscal year 2025-2026.
We expect that a meaningful amount to be allocated to defense-related programs for which MDA Space is well-positioned to deliver, given our long-standing heritage of being a trusted contractor for both space and defense opportunities with the Canadian government for decades. Recently, we have demonstrated that MDA Space is in a strong position to participate in defense opportunities through recent announcements, such as the strategic partnership with the government of Canada's Department of National Defence and Telesat to develop and deliver military satellite communication capabilities in the Arctic, a CAD 5 billion+ program of record. In addition, we were awarded a contract on behalf of the Canadian Space Agency to procure long-lead parts for the RADARSAT Constellation Mission replenishment satellite, part of government's CAD 1 billion RADARSAT+ initiative.
We have also been selected as an approved supplier by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, receiving an IDIQ contract related to the SHIELD program and established an MoU with Hanwha Systems to explore opportunities to collaborate on the development of South Korea's sovereign K-LEO defense constellation. Supplementing this will be opportunities to participate as a key supplier of satellite subsystems similar to contracts we were previously awarded to support U.S. Space Development Agency missions. Beyond space, we are also in a strong position to be Canada's national defense champion. Leveraging our deep mission experience and complex defense capability that has supported Canadian and Allied operations for decades, we recently launched 49th North , a dedicated defense organization exclusively focused on delivering secure multi-domain C5ISR and mission-critical capabilities for Canada's national defense priorities outside the space domain.
This launch reflects increasing demand for sovereign defense capability across land, air, maritime, and joint domains. By bringing together proven defense and mission-critical systems expertise under a dedicated organization, we enhance focus, accountability, and discipline program execution. 49th North will be focused on building a strong pipeline in non-space defense, actively partnering with domestic and global industry and investing in the capabilities required to support Canada's national defense priorities. All this activity bodes well for the continued growth of MDA Space, as we are pleased to announce today that as a result of our annual pipeline review and strong market and customer demand, our pipeline contains CAD 40 billion in cumulative opportunities over the next 5 years. Within this pipeline, CAD 10 billion includes either opportunities with government customers that have downselected MDA Space or follow-on opportunities with existing customers.
For opportunities where we have been downselected, this means we are now part of a narrow list of candidates who have moved on to the next stage within the contract award process. In addition, our pipeline is well-distributed between government and defense and commercial opportunities. The geographic distribution is balanced between significant opportunities here at home in Canada and the United States, with growing opportunities within Europe and other parts of the world, including Southeast Asia. This pipeline should allow us to continue to diversify our customer base and international footprint, and combined with our backlog, provides us with confidence to continue to drive profitable and stable revenue growth for years to come. I'll now spend a few minutes on each of our business areas.
In satellite systems, we continue to see good momentum in the market with our teams working to advance multiple requests for communication satellite solutions and a growing number of constellation projects, both for commercial and government applications. We are also seeing strong activity levels from customers, and our opportunity pipeline remains robust. Over the past year, our satellite systems business delivered year-over-year growth of 85%, a remarkable achievement. On Telesat Lightspeed program, we continue preparations for the program's engineering and manufacturing development and continue to make progress on completing the final Critical Design Review. We expect to begin delivering a small number of satellites in 2026, with deliveries ramping up in 2027. The team continues work on the Globalstar next generation LEO constellation. We achieved a significant milestone with completion of the Critical Design Review.
Work is being carried out through development activities on life testing of equipment and procurement activities are advancing with equipment deliveries taking place. We have also begun assembly and integration activities of the first satellites. We also continue to advance work on the initial Globalstar program, where MDA Space is the prime contractor to enhance Globalstar's LEO constellation through the addition of 17 satellites, which support SOS features and direct-to-device communication on certain Apple products. In Q4, the team continued to progress flight hardware production and advanced satellite integration and test work with 15 satellites currently on the shop floor in our facility, with eight satellites successfully completing functional acceptance testing. After experiencing some delays last year, we are tracking towards the revised timeline established in Q4 for deliveries this year.
We're also making great progress with our Montreal facility expansion, which will add 185,000 square feet to our existing satellite production facility. The manufacturing and engineering group that will support the new production lines have moved into new office space, and the new facility now contains printed circuit board production lines and is capable of producing flight hardware. Once complete, this facility will be one of the world's largest high-volume manufacturing facilities in its satellite class. We have entered into a termination agreement with EchoStar following the cancellation of the contract they awarded us last year, and we are turning our focus to the other opportunities we are pursuing within our pipeline. Moving to our robotics and space operations business, we continue to see good tractions and activity levels on both the government and commercial fronts.
As the world leader in on-orbit space robotic operations and decades of experience in building and maintaining the current International Space Station, we continue to engage with commercial LEO destination companies to provide inputs to their design concepts for SkyMaker robotics compatibility. MDA SKYMAKER is our commercial suite of robotics products specifically designed to be configured to suit a variety of mission applications, including space station assembly and servicing. While the International Space Station is currently slated to be retired by 2030, NASA is supporting the development of commercially owned and operated space stations in low Earth orbit, which the agency, along with other customers, can purchase services and stimulate the growth of commercial activities in microgravity.
We expect NASA to release the procurement call for the next phase of CLD development in the coming months. We look forward to continuing to support the CLD candidates in their system development and bids to NASA. This past December, we successfully demonstrated our autonomous lunar logistics capabilities through a prototype vehicle developed for the CSA's Lunar Utility Rover. Using the CSA's analog terrain in Saint-Hubert, Quebec, the demonstration showed our capability to autonomously transport large cargo elements from a landing site to a habitat, robotically manipulate smaller payloads, and have multiple autonomous vehicles coordinate motion and work together on tasks. These are key logistics capabilities pivotal to humanity's return to the Moon. We are proving that we can deliver.
Lastly, our team continued to make progress on executing Phase C of the Canadarm3 program while ramping down on Phase B activities, conducting closeout activities throughout Q4. The team is focused on building and testing engineering models of the system elements while working towards critical design review. Moving to our Geointelligence business, in Q4, we were pleased to have been awarded a CAD 45 million authorization to proceed contract by the Canadian Space Agency for critical long lead parts that are required to build a replenishment satellite for the RADARSAT Constellation Mission as part of the government's CAD 1 billion RADARSAT+ initiative. Alongside this ATP contract, the CSA also announced its intention to further contract MDA Space to build, test and launch this replenishment satellite.
We were selected to deliver a concept study to support the development of RADARSAT+'s next generation mission to eventually succeed the current RADARSAT Constellation Mission. Q4, the team also continued to progress work on CHORUS. Our spacecraft electrical integration and testing activities progressed well through the end of the year and made solid progress in testing the full SAR antenna, which was well-characterized on our near-field test range. We started to validate some of our flight control procedures related to the ground segment, and construction work continued for the new Mission Control Center, and we continue to track to our launch window in late 2026. Before I hand it to Guillaume, I want to mention that Alison Alfers has resigned from the board of directors due to unexpected family circumstances, effective March third, 2026.
Alfers has been a valued member of the board since 2022, supporting MDA Space during this exceptional period of growth. We are grateful for her contributions and extend our sincere thanks and best wishes to her and her family. With that, I'll hand it over to Guillaume.
Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone. Overall, both Q4 and full year 2025 delivered record results with solid growth in revenue and profitability, combined with strong free cash flow generation and a solid backlog to end the year, positioning us well for 2026 and beyond. Total revenues for the fourth quarter were a record CAD 499 million. This represents a CAD 153 million or 44% increase over the same period last year. The year-over-year increase is driven by higher revenues from our satellite systems business, including the impact of the EchoStar termination agreement. On a full year basis, total revenues were also a record, coming in at CAD 1.63 billion, an increase of 51% over 2024. The year-over-year increase in revenues was primarily driven by higher volumes of work performed, again, primarily in our satellite systems business.
By business area, revenues in satellite systems of CAD 371 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 were CAD 137 million or 58% higher compared to the same quarter in 2024. The strong showing was driven by the increase in volume of work on the Telesat Lightspeed program, the Globalstar next generation LEO Constellation program, and the impact of the closure of the EchoStar agreement. On a full year basis, revenues for satellite systems increased to CAD 1.1 billion, which represents an increase of more than CAD 500 million or 85%, which is remarkable from the same period in 2024. Again, this was driven by volume of work on the Telesat Lightspeed and the Globalstar next generation LEO Constellation programs.
In robotics and space operations, revenue of CAD 66 million in the latest quarter were in line with the level seen in Q4 2024 and in line also with our expectations for this quarter due to timing of revenue recognition on non-labor costs. For the full year 2025, revenues were CAD 309 million, translating into a year-over-year increase of CAD 29 million or 11%. This increase is primarily driven by the higher volume of work performed on Canadarm3 program as volume of work on Phase C activity increased throughout the year. Revenues in our Geo Intelligence business of CAD 62 million in the latest quarter represents an increase of CAD 15 million or 31% year-over-year due to volume of work on programs.
For the full year 2025, revenues for Geo Intelligence were CAD 214 million, representing a CAD 12 million or 6% increase compared to 2024. Moving to gross profit. For Q4 2025, gross profit was CAD 127 million, representing a CAD 45 million or 55% increase over the same period last year. Gross margin in the latest quarter was 25.5% and compares to 23.6% for the same period in 2024. For the year, gross profit was CAD 410 million, representing a CAD 128 million or 45% increase over 2024. Gross margin for the year was 25.1%, which compares to gross margin of 26.1% in 2024. The year-over-year change in gross margin is driven by evolving program mix.
Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was a record CAD 96 million, compared to CAD 71 million in Q4 2024, driven by higher volumes of work as we continue to convert our backlog. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 19.3% in Q4, the slight decline in margins compared to Q4 of last year is attributable to our evolving program mix. On a full year basis, Adjusted EBITDA was also a record, coming in at CAD 324 million, up from 2024 levels of CAD 217 million, representing a CAD 107 million or 49% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.8% for the full year 2025 compares to 20.1% for 2024 and is driven by, again, an evolving program mix.
Adjusted net income in the quarter was CAD 59 million, compared with CAD 35 million in Q4 2024, a year-over-year increase of CAD 23 million or 67% was primarily driven by higher operating income. Full year Adjusted net income of CAD 190 million was up 71% year-over-year, also largely driven by higher operating income. Finally, adjusted diluted earnings per share of CAD 0.45 in Q4 and CAD 1.46 for the year were up 61% and 66% respectively versus the same periods last year. Moving to our backlog. We ended the quarter with a solid CAD 4 billion backlog, which is slightly below December 31, 2024, driven by continued conversion of our backlog into revenue. This is normal and is to be expected due to the order level in 2025, which will vary from one year to the other.
We continue to expect that MDA Space will be a growing company, supported by our pipeline containing CAD 40 billion in cumulative opportunities over the next 5 years. As mentioned by Mike, within this pipeline, CAD 10 billion includes either opportunities with government customers that have downselected MDA Space or follow-on opportunities with existing customers. Moving to CapEx. We remain focused on making the right investments in the business to support our strategic growth initiatives. In Q4 2025, we spent CAD 70 million on capital expenditures, up CAD 61 million from last year. We continue to be on track with setting up production lines to ramp up high volume satellite production, and we have virtually completed our investment in MDA CHORUS. In addition, we have started to capitalize work related to our space-grade chip following the acquisition of SatixFy.
On a full year basis, our capital expenditure was CAD 242 million, compared to CAD 198 million in 2024. We demonstrated once again this year that we can execute our investment plan to deliver sustainable and profitable growth in the future. Cash from operations during the quarter generated CAD 51 million, compared to CAD 376 million in Q4 2024. The year-over-year decrease is primarily driven by normal program-related working capital fluctuations in the quarter. Free cash flow was slightly negative at -CAD 20 million in the quarter versus +CAD 315 million in the prior year. For the full year, cash from operations generated CAD 407 million, compared to a cash generation of CAD 813 million in 2024.
The year-over-year decrease in operating cash flow again was driven by normal program-related working capital fluctuations, including higher advanced payments received in 2024. Free cash flow was a healthy CAD 165 million in 2025, in line with our guidance of neutral to positive free cash flow for the full year and compares to prior year free cash flow of CAD 615 million. Moving to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with a strong financial position with net cash of CAD 152 million, available liquidity of CAD 669 million under our credit facility, and a total available liquidity of CAD 821 million. Our net debt to trailing twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA ratio was a healthy 0.4 times.
In the quarter, we strategically evolved our capital structure through the issuance of CAD 250 million in senior unsecured notes due 2030 and with an amendment of our senior revolving credit facility of CAD 700 million, extending the maturity to 2030 and also allowing for a CAD 150 million accordion feature. Our strong balance sheet position provides flexibility and liquidity, allowing us to deploy capital on the right strategic opportunities to support our strong growth profile. In summary, this was a strong quarter to wrap up fiscal 2025, and we continue to be encouraged by the positive momentum we are seeing across our businesses. I also wanna take the time here to recognize the work, dedication, and passion of the MDA Space team. Without each employee's contribution, these outstanding results would not have been possible.
Let me turn to our 2026 outlook. As Mike noted, we are introducing our 2026 financial outlook, we are well-positioned to capitalize on strong customer demand and robust market activity given our diverse and proven technology, including our product offerings. For the full year, we expect revenues to be between CAD 1.7 billion-CAD 1.9 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 10% at the midpoint of the guidance. This is off the back of extraordinary growth in 2025. Comparing the revenue growth between 2020 and the midpoint of our guidance for 2026, this represents a CAGR of close to 30%, which approaches the high end of our stated goal of 20%-30% CAGR for the business.
We expect full year Adjusted EBITDA to be between CAD 320 million and CAD 370 million, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 7% at the midpoint of the guidance, an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 18%-20%. The Adjusted EBITDA range is to provide flexibility for us to strategically scale up the business for future growth, particularly in R&D and in SG&A, and aligns with our historical goals since the IPO and continues to represent very solid profitability.
We expect CapEx to be between CAD 225 million and CAD 275 million in 2026 to support another year of investments related to expanding production at our Montreal facility, investments in chip development, and investments to support commercial growth initiatives. Although we continue to invest in our future, our capital intensity as a percentage of revenues is reducing from an average of over 20% between 2021 and 2024 to now less than 15% in 2025 and in 2026 at the midpoint of our guidance. Finally, we expect full-year free cash flow to be neutral to negative, driven by normal program working capital fluctuations combined with the CapEx required to support future growth.
With this outlook, MDA Space is positioned to once again deliver a strong year of profitable growth with the vast majority of revenue for 2026 contained within our solid backlog. Looking beyond 2026, we are excited about the opportunities ahead, supported by our CAD 40 billion pipeline. On our mission to grow the business, the team is focused on executing customer commitments and leveraging our capabilities and technology to win new business pursuits while remaining disciplined in delivering sustainable, profitable growth. With that, operator, we are ready for questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. If you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please let the handset before pressing any keys. One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Doug Taylor from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, and congrats on a great close to 2025 and the outlook for 2026. You've given more color to the pipeline. CAD 40 billion, that's a staggering number and a big expansion from the last number you provided. Is it fair to characterize the expansion here as being more defense and intelligence related versus commercial communications? Would you provide some further color as to where you're seeing the most growth and opportunity?
Yep, for sure we can do that. This is like our annual update to pipeline. We're gonna try to make sure that we gave the numbers last year and carried it through the year, and we're up. We've scrubbed all the numbers at the start of every year and updated the pipeline expectations. That's what we're doing here now. The growth in terms of the size of the pipeline has certainly been based on opportunities we collected through the year. There are a number of them, yes, that are defense and intelligence-related, both in the space sector, in addition to the non-space sector with the announcement of 49th North and the focus there.
The 49th North also creates opportunities for us to, through to a 49th North , take on some new non-space things. Yeah, both domestically and internationally, the defense side has some of the chunkier growth in the pipeline.
Would you quantify, just 'cause you mentioned the 49th North pipeline as being, you know, material within the context of this larger number?
I don't know what the materiality number would be, but it's early days with 49th North , but with the initiation of it as we started the year, it has immediately picked up some meaty opportunities as a defense prime in Canada.
Okay. you know, I'll just ask one more question on, you know, the pipeline.
Sure.
-to your guidance here, and you get this question every year at this time. I guess what I'm asking here is the degree of coverage of the guidance you're providing for 2026 that you're taking out of backlog, and I guess, you know, I'd assume it's relatively high? You know, the flip side of that question was the amount of pipeline conversion that, you know, is baked into that guidance versus, you know, supporting 2027 and beyond?
Yeah. Like, certainly 26 is, I said, is a year of, you know, very high visibility on revenue from backlog, so we're executing a lot of backlog as we go through 26. We do expect some orders in the guidance that's been given. The pipeline is a 5-year pipeline, so it's, you know, from now through the next five years of specific, you know, named opportunities that we're pursuing. The pace at which those can come in, you know, is often based on customer activity, and some of that customer activity is in areas that are newly emergent, such as the Canadian government's new Canadian Defence Industrial Strategy, the creation of the new Defence Investment Agency.
We have a lot of new policy and new processes around an expanding defense budget, which assures opportunities in the pipeline, which are great, but there's a little less insight in terms of exactly how fast those things can move. We are definitely seeing procurements moving faster, especially strategic procurements in the sovereign defense capability areas identified in the Canadian Defence Industrial Strategy. That's really great to see. In terms of exactly how those will play out, we have to be a little bit cautious until we actually, you know, see some more examples of how these things are gonna flow through the modified procurement processes. They're there. Things can happen both government and commercially as we go through the year.
The pace of those will be based on, you know, outside forces.
All right. I appreciate the added color. I'll pass the line.
Sure. Thanks.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Justin Lang from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Mike, you know, you're quite bullish towards the end of last year that we could see potentially another sizable commercial constellation order announced here in 2026. Just curious if you're still hopeful that we could see a large order like that this year. Any color there would be great.
Yeah, it's still possible for sure. Like I say, that's all based on, you know, commercial customer activity as well. You know, when and how they decide to move out on different opportunities. We're still actively engaged, actively quoting people in the pipeline on the commercial side of things. There's absolutely potential that could happen. You know, we'll wait and see how it rolls. Yeah, we still are behaving in a way that we are, you know, feeding customer with inputs on to assure that they're comfortable to move forward.
Okay, great. Maybe just on the CapEx guide for the year, we could just maybe put a finer point on where the investment's going in terms of what exactly is left to build out in Montreal and how much you'll be spending on this chip development effort. Should we think about CapEx sort of stepping down materially from here into 2027, or is it more of a smoother downward glide path from here? Thanks.
Thank you, Justin. I'll take that one. Really the focus this year will be on the Lightspeed and Globalstar production line equipment. That's really the focus for us. You know, we also have to continue to invest in office space and things like parking. I mean, we've been growing a lot. Our factory there in Montreal is virtually completed, like the building is completed. We need a bit more investments to make sure that everybody can come to work comfortably. The facility has been, you know, expanding quite a bit. In terms of chip development, for sure now we started to capitalize the work that we're doing there.
It's intangible assets for the most part, and, you know, that's important within the midpoint of CAD 250 million. You know, it's ramping up essentially in 2026. Finally, we have some commercial sort of opportunities where we see that we need to invest a little bit ahead of getting the business. Those are really the areas of focus for us. I think, you know, if we look beyond 2026, I feel like we're gonna still have a good year of spending in 2027. You know, too early to say if it will be lower than the midpoint we're guiding to this year in 2026.
Beyond that, you know, when looking at the business for the future, I feel like a number of CAD 150 million-CAD 200 million would be a reasonable, you know, long-term number to assume now. We've been indicating in the past a bit lower than that, really the big driver here is that now we have, you know, chip capabilities, we're gonna have to continue to invest on that front. That's obviously strategic, and it has a lot of value for us.
Perfect. I'll pass the line. Thanks.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Anil Gupta from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Morning, Mike and Guillaume and team. Just on the pipeline maybe, the CAD 40 billion is an outstanding figure. Have you, like, figured out what's the incremental, you said defense obviously driving some of that, but in terms of segments, I'm thinking, you know, is it more on the satellite side that you're seeing these incremental opportunities, making satellites, or is it more from the services side, whether it's Geointelligence or something else?
I would say more on the, certainly there's really solid expansion on the satellite side, definitely in 2 types of satellites, in communication satellites and earth observation satellites. There's definitely, you know, solid growth in contracting for and delivering the satellites. There is some new capability offering type stuff in space that is being introduced as the space market continues to expand that can affect robotics and space operations. That's really been good to see. Those are the main driver areas. Like I mentioned before, a little bit of a bump there in the non-space defense with the creation of 49th North and the ability to take on defense prime contracts in an improved way.
Okay. Thanks. The CAD 10 billion, like, DD pipeline seems like it's maybe up the pipe, the opportunities and because, you know, you've been shortlisted by the governments and, you're expecting some follow-ons. In terms of timeline then, do you see, you know, like government orders can be lumpy obviously, but do you expect some of these CAD 10 billion worth of opportunities might be converting into contracts this year and next year, or these are more sort of back-end loaded?
No, I would think, a lot of the shorter list ones. There's a number of them that would have a chance within that bucket over the next 24 months. Like I said, some of that is government related, and therefore it is gonna be linked with the behavior of government under new defense procurement initiatives. They're not all. Some other government ones are just normal procurement processes. There's some that could come this year, definitely some that could come next year.
Thanks. Last one from me before I turn over. In terms of RFPs, I mean, your business has grown a lot. Your opportunity pipeline is expanding. Are you expecting to fill a lot of RFPs this year? Like, can you provide some context historically, like how many RFPs typically you fill in a year?
I don't have that number in my head. That's a new good one for me to get in my head. How many bids do we write a year? I'll have to go and work on that. It's steady, let me just say that. As far as for sure, our new business teams are very active, constantly responding to requests for quotations and requests for proposals. RFQs and RFPs, in the system, it is a constant activity. We will definitely be responding to a number of those as we go through the year for sure.
Okay. Thanks for that and all the best for the year. Thank you.
Okay. Thanks, Anil.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, Mike and Guillaume. Maybe Guillaume, I wanted to see on the Adjusted EBITDA guide for the year, a bit of a wider range than we would typically see, and I can appreciate some of your comments around the higher R&D spend. Can you give any more detail on maybe some of the puts and takes between the upper end or the lower end of the Adjusted EBITDA outlook, and maybe any more specifics on the areas of focus for R&D and other investments?
Thank you, Ken, good morning to you. You know, at the end of the day, we wanted to give ourself some wiggle room here. Depending on, you know, the timing of the investments that we're contemplating to support our strategic growth, you know, we will see potentially an impact on the EBITDA margin. Again, we've maintained a range of 18%-20%. You know, we're gonna be strategic about those investments. It's gonna also be sort of part of how we see, you know, the timing of revenue recognition.
You know, if top line comes in very strong, then, you know, we might invest a little bit more and, in an alternative scenario, then, we might be a bit more prudent with our different investments. At the end of the day, I think, what's to be sort of highlighted here is that we're coming off a very strong year of growth again. We're now, you know, guiding to be a CAD 1.8 billion company, and we were a CAD 400 million company not so long ago. Mike and I were thinking about that a lot because, you know, we've been investing in our facilities and all of that, but we need to maintain our technological leadership.
That's why, you know, we feel like we have some investments to do in R&D. Also we need to scale the rest of the business, rather if it's us working on, you know, making sure we're using AI, or, you know, making sure that we have e-enhanced capabilities within, you know, finance, legal, HR, and IT. I think we'll manage it prudently, and we will always do that. We're very disciplined, as you know. But we felt like we needed, you know, the proper wiggle room to execute and deliver another good year here in 2026.
Great, Guillaume. Appreciate all the detail. Maybe Mike, you know, we think about your defense exposure today as, you know, maybe mid-teens of the business. If you're successful on some of these pipeline opportunities as you've leaned into this opportunity on the defense and national security side, what could defense broadly represent maybe of the revenue mix exiting 2026 or into 2027? I mean, can you maybe just frame that opportunity for us?
I think exiting 2026, I wouldn't expect a big sudden change. I think 2027, you know, if some things start to get, you know, contracted in these various forms of pipeline, you know, as we go through 2026, then in 2027, we could start to see some additional revenue lift from the defense side and then certainly in 2028. A number of these programs tend to be larger, and so they'll, you know, they'll take time, and then they'll have to ramp up. But the, you know, the relative contribution in terms of your mid-teen estimate and how that might change, of course, will be dependent on what else has happened on the commercial side as well, which is still a significant part of the pipeline.
The defense, the defense portion will go up as we go through the next 24 months. That's our expectation.
Great. Thanks, Mike. I'll pass it back there.
Okay, thanks again.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Russell Stanley from Beacon Securities. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for the question. Congrats on the quarter. Maybe a follow-up on that last question around your revenue mix expectations. How should we think about the gross margins kind of on a mid-term basis? I think people might generally assume that defense-related work must come at lower margins. Is that, you know, are you seeing that, or do you expect that? Or are you more or less kind of expecting gross margins to be unchanged relative to the work you've seen on the commercial front? Thanks.
Hey, maybe I take that one, Russ, you know, give you some insights here. 2026, you know, 18%-20%, we're very confident about that range for the business. We don't expect that to change in the near term. I would expect that we could continue to deliver within that range for 2027. What's gonna happen is two things. First, you know, as we increase our production in Montreal, we might see some margin opportunities in terms of margin expansion in the future. Now, with that said, when we look at defense contracts, they do typically come with lower EBITDA margin. You know, it's too early to tell, like, what will our mix be.
Today it's about, you know, 70% commercial, 30% government and defense. You know, we'll see how that evolves. You know, one thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing very, very large opportunities coming, you know, for us, given everything that we've been saying this morning. At the end of the day, if we would be in a position in a number of years where we would see, you know, a lot of big defense opportunity coming to us, we might see a bit of compression on the EBITDA margin. At the end of the day, we don't take margin to the bank, right?
You know, from my perspective, this would be still very good for our business because we would increase our earnings per share and, you know, absolute EBITDA number. You know, that's all the color that I guess we can give at this stage. We'll continue to, you know, provide updates as, you know, things evolve over the next, you know, few years here.
That's great color. Maybe if, you know, my follow-up just around the backlog and given the pipeline, the huge growth you've seen there, this is a bit of a Hollywood problem question, but how do you think about managing the backlog as a, as a multiple of revenue? You know, balancing wanting to keep the backlog as healthy as possible while managing delivery timelines and expectations for customers on, with a CAD 40 million pipeline at some point, that might be a nice problem to have, but I'd love to hear how you're thinking about it right now. Thanks.
Yeah. That's a great question.
I think we have. Go ahead.
Yeah.
Go ahead.
Yeah, I'll start. Sorry, Mike and I, we're not in the same location today. He's in Europe, and we're here in Toronto. That's a great question, Russ. Like, from our perspective, like, we have a really good thing going on for us here because we've invested in a brand new center of excellence right here in Brampton, Ontario. We can take on a lot more work. You know, as I commented earlier, we're now very close to having a world-class, high-volume satellite manufacturing facility in Montreal that can deliver up to 400 satellites per year.
I mean, we've made all those investments, and now we're basically ready to convert more opportunities from our pipeline into our backlog and then continue to execute and generate revenue growth. You know, we are obviously targeting a book-to-bill ratio above one, you know, compared to our revenue every year. This year we were a bit below that, but, you know, if you look at the past two years, then we were above. It's just gonna be a matter of timing here. In our business, it takes a bit of time to convert pipeline opportunities into orders, but I think we're very well positioned here from a, you know, an infrastructure and footprint standpoint to take on a lot more business. Maybe, Mike, if you wanna add anything.
Nope. I think that's great. Thanks.
That's great color. I'll get back in the queue. Thank you.
Thanks, Russ.
Thank you. Your next question comes from David McFadgen from Cormark Securities. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you. A couple questions. You know, maybe I'll ask on the pipeline as well. We've seen it double since Q3, and you now disclose that CAD 10 billion of the CAD 40 billion is for follow-on orders or defense, or I guess a combination of both. Can you confirm that APO Globalstar follow-on order would be in that CAD 10 billion pipeline?
We're not gonna talk about specific opportunities in our pipeline. The other thing is that, you know, it hasn't, like, been like a jump over the next year. We're trying to make sure we update the pipeline annually and make sure that we give, as part of guidance for the year, we give an update on pipeline. We'll carry this pipeline number as we go through the year. We're not gonna talk on a quarter-by-quarter basis about adjustments to the pipeline. You know, our order development and order cycle is such that, you know, we shouldn't be thinking about quarterly stuff, we should be thinking about annually stuff.
We'll be working this pipeline as we go through this year and give an update to it the same time next year. There hasn't been, like, some huge swing just in the last three-month period. It's been building as we've been going through 2025, and with all the changes that have occurred in the market and our changes to our position that have contributed to that. But I don't wanna comment on specific opportunities like that.
Do you know when NASA's gonna announce this, the award for this, like, over $4 billion Artemis contract for the manned lunar terrain utility vehicle? Like, this has been over a year now delayed.
Yeah. It's been like, people have been looking for that to be announced, you know, every month for many months. I think that it probably got slowed down as in the fall. The expectation was there as the new NASA Administrator, Jared Isaacman, came into his job, and everybody has to confirm, you know, what all the priorities are. I think that probably slowed him down a little bit. You will have seen, like, a strong burst in the last little while about ensuring the return to the lunar surface and ensuring in the, in the sorta mini space race that's going on here, or maybe it's not too much of a mini space race.
The space race that's going on here between United States and, the United States and China, to be able to, you know, get humans back on the Moon and start having habitats there and all that kind of stuff, there's a significant focus on that. I think that probably in the architecture of their programs and, which sequence of things need to be in, decided and announced in what order, has probably been reshuffled a bit as the new administrator has come into his job. In the background, people continually expect that as being one of the programs that could be announced, you know, at any time kind of a thing, because the it's been...
We agree that, you know, the community's been waiting for a while for that announcement.
Okay. Just on Lightspeed, can you confirm that the critical design review is complete and you've started construction of those satellites?
The critical design review, I think there's a few actions that are still being worked. Like, the critical design review process, you know, was conducted. There's a few odds and sods of things that people are, you know, following up on. That always happens in CDRs. In terms of being able, into talking about, you know, moving forward with the construction of satellites, certainly that's all progressing because we owe a couple of satellites this year into Telesat. We're, we're leaning into that.
Okay. Was the EchoStar payment, was that anything material in the quarter?
Maybe I'll take that one. Good morning, David. You know, that contract termination process with EchoStar is now completed. We've received payments for all termination amounts that we were entitled to receive under the terms of the original contract. The terms of that, you know, agreement with EchoStar, the termination agreement, are confidential, and we are precluded from sharing details of the agreement, including the dollar amount that we were compensated for. This is behind us. We're moving forward. We have a strong pipeline, and we're glad that, you know, this was completed in the fourth quarter.
Okay. All right. Thanks, guys.
Thanks, David.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Thanos Moschopoulos from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. With respect to, Telesat and Globalstar, can you remind us when the first deliveries happen? Is that kind of Q3 timeframe, or when would that be?
With Globalstar, from that first contract for 17 satellites, there'll be deliveries through the first half of the year. With Telesat, with Lightspeed, there'll be some deliveries near the end of the year.
Okay. For the second Globalstar contract, would there also be deliveries towards the end of the year?
I think, I'd have to check on that in terms of the latest status for that, in terms of, whether it's late in the year or early in the next, I'd have to check on that. There's lots of moving parts still in, on, that program.
Okay.
Yeah. I think that's a good way to put it, Mike. We're, you know, very advanced with that contract. You know, we started the construction. As Mike said, we completed the CDR. It's just a matter of working with the customer here. We've always said that, you know, we would have, you know, some ramp-ups, mostly in 2026, with a more significant year of production and delivery in 2027. But, you know, as Mike said, you know, there's a lot of moving parts with the second contract here. So we expect that, you know, we'll start delivering either at the end of 2026 or, you know, in 2027.
Great. Mike, with respect to 49th North , what would be some of the, I guess, more meaningful areas of opportunity that you'd call out? Clearly you have a broad range of capabilities. You're already getting a lot of non-space work with the service combatants. What would be some of the near term or larger opportunities, or buckets of, within non-space that you would hope for within the defense sector in Canada?
Yeah. In terms of areas where we've got a really strong history of past performance, one of the key areas would be on autonomous systems. We're, you know, a leader with the Canadian Forces in the delivery and/or operation of autonomous air systems like drones for the military. That's an area of strength for us. Another area of strength would be in sensors. You mentioned the Canadian Surface Combatant or the River-class destroyer, where we're responsible for the integration of the electronic warfare suite and the sensors around that. You know, those are example areas where we, you know, we're historically strong. We have strengths in things like submarine command training, for example.
That'll be a hot topic as we move forward into the future as Canada goes and buys new submarines. We're responsible for that today. There'll be some large programs coming forward in, you know, in integrated command and control communications, you know, with sensors and the like, where we have strong, secure, systems integration expertise that can lead programs in that area. That will apply to a number of different programs that could come along.
That's great. I'll pass the time. Thanks.
Thanks.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Greg MacDonald from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Thanks for fitting me in at the end, guys. Mike, I know you don't wanna talk about specifics on the pipeline, but the Golden Dome, I think most of us would consider a different risk profile than some of your other opportunities. Can you say, are you willing to say whether there's anything in the Golden Dome inside the pipeline?
I think there could be opportunities related to that. Like, you would've seen us get a IDIQ contract signature there with the SHIELD program with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, which is really an opportunity to be able to be sort of inside the tent and able to bid on things. That creates some opportunity. Some of the opportunities for Canada that are related to Arctic defense, whether that's Arctic defense communication or Arctic defense surveillance, those types of programs that are Canadian programs, you know, would be eligible to be part of Golden Dome scope.
You know, I think that I'd have to honestly say that, you know, those things could absolutely be related to a Golden Dome scope, but they would be Canadian programs. In the US, on the US side of things, we would continue to have conversations with folks that could benefit from our space capabilities as they continue to advance their solutions for Golden Dome on the US side. You would've seen us in the last number of years be providing satellite technology to all the satellite primes in the SDA LEO constellations. You know, we've got a strong history of performance there delivering into US primes when their programs ramp up.
Great. Thanks. That's helpful. Second quick question on 49th North . To what extent-
Yeah.
You've talked a lot about hardware, and we know that Canada does, and you do sensors well, systems integrations well. When you talk about systems integration, should we assume that includes software and in particular kind of, you know, the command and control integration stuff and the AI prediction stuff, or is that beyond the scope of what you guys are looking at?
It could definitely include those types of things. You know, we're strong in systems integration. That can include hardware and software integration to deliver a system for sure. We have past performances of that in the 49th North team. We, you know, we have strong capability there. Yep, that can definitely be part of that. In terms of AI, that's gonna depend on the systems. These days, when you have sensors that are, you know, delivering data into an integrated system that you then need to determine what the current situation is and evaluate alternative courses of action from that information you're receiving, of course, our artificial intelligence related system elements can be logically part of that.
We see that on all of our programs, including our space programs these days. As you look at the roadmaps for the evolution of these technologies, AI has more and more of an opportunity all the time. That can definitely come up as part of a systems integration solution.
Great. Congrats on the quarter.
Thanks.
Thanks, Greg.
Your next question comes from Michael Kypreos from Desjardins Securities. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thanks for squeezing me in. I'll be quick here. Just any updates on capital allocation and how the M&A pipeline is these days?
The.
So, uh-
The pipeline's good. Yep, I was just gonna say from the pipeline perspective, the pipeline's good. We keep an eye on all the same areas we ever talked about M&A, where we talk about vertical integration, we talk about geographic expansion to open up bigger pipelines for ourselves around the world. Those types of thought processes absolutely continue, and we continue to look at and focus on targets. I'll let Guillaume talk to capital allocation.
Thank you, Mike. And Michael, good morning. Yeah, I mean, focus for us is to continue to, you know, look for targets so we can expand geographically. Obviously the second priority is to execute our growth, you know, organic plan. Again, you saw the guidance this morning for this year. We're gonna spend the midpoint CAD 250 million into CapEx. Those are really the two priorities. Potentially, you know, doing some acquisitions, then, you know, focus on delivering on our investments that we need to support our growth. We're not thinking of, you know, introducing any dividends at this point or share buybacks or things like that. We're very focused on continuing to grow the company.
Appreciate it, guys.
Thank you, Michael.
Thank you. Then all other questions at this time, Mr. Mike Greenley, you may proceed with the call.
Okay. Well, thanks everybody. I appreciate all the questions and the discussion, we will get back at it and look forward to talking to you again in the next quarter. Thanks a lot.
This does conclude your conference call for today. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
Thanks.