MDA Space Ltd. (TSX:MDA)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Mar 23, 2023

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to MDA's conference call and webcast. This call is being recorded on March 23rd, 2023 at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time for you to queue up for questions. If anyone has any difficulties hearing the conference, please press star zero for operator assistance at any time. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Shereen Zahawi, Senior Director, Investor Relations at MDA. Please go ahead.

Shereen Zahawi
Senior Director of Investor Relations, MDA

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, welcome to MDA's Q4 2022 earnings call. Mike Greenley, our CEO, and Vito Culmone, our CFO, will lead today's call and share some prepared remarks before taking your questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that today's call will include estimates and other forward-looking information which may differ from actual results. Please review the cautionary language in today's press release and public filings regarding various factors, assumptions, and risks that could cause actual results to differ. During this call, we will refer to certain non-IFRS financial measures. Although we believe these measures provide useful supplemental information about our financial performance, these measures do not have any standardized meaning under IFRS, our approach in calculating these measures may differ from that of other issuers and therefore may not be directly comparable.

Please see the company's quarterly report and other public filings for more information about these measures, including reconciliations to the nearest IFRS measures. With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Mike.

Mike Greenley
CEO, MDA

Thank you, Shereen. Good morning, and thank you to those joining us today to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results. As we wrap up another strong year for MDA, I would like to thank our employees for their dedication and commitment to delivering for our customers. Our secret sauce and key to success are our talented employees, and we are fortunate to work in an exciting field that really energizes and attracts talent and pushes the boundaries of innovation every day. As we rounded out the year, our team remained laser-focused on executing our growth strategies across our end markets, and we are pleased with the results, with the progress made in the fourth quarter, including a contract award to support ARSAT, Argentina's national telecommunications company, by providing Ka-band antennas and the completion of the preliminary design review on Globalstar's LEO constellation program.

We are also pleased with the development progress made on CHORUS, our next-generation Earth observation constellation. In Q4, the team conducted the Mission Critical Design Review or CDR, a major milestone in the development of the program that will now allow us to advance to unit-level build activities. Overall, we are seeing strong business momentum, we have made tangible progress in executing against the plan we laid out just under two years ago at the time of our IPO. Our backlog at year-end stood at CAD 1.4 billion, up 59% year-over-year at a very healthy level for the company. We continue to see a significant growth pipeline across our business. In 2022, we secured CAD 1.2 billion in awards, which included two sizable wins.

Phase B of Canadarm3 and Globalstar's LEO constellation, complemented by numerous other strategic awards across our three business areas. We grew our revenue to CAD 641 million, an increase of 34% year-over-year, and expanded our adjusted EBITDA to CAD 141 million, up 26% versus last year levels. This translates to a robust 22% margin for the full year. To support current and future growth, we continue to focus on talent recruitment. In 2022, we added 880 new staff. This is in addition to the 670 new hires we added in 2021. We also deployed CAD 180 million in CapEx, which included R&D spending on technologies related to CHORUS and other growth initiatives. Persistent innovation and technology advancement is a critical market differentiator for MDA.

Our company was recently ranked by market research firm Research Infosource as one of the top 45 companies in Canada for R&D and technology investment based on 2021 data. From a strategy perspective, we remain focused on executing on the priorities we've outlined for our three business areas to capitalize on the growth opportunities we see in our end markets. In satellite systems, we are investing in new technologies and capabilities to accelerate our transition from analog to digital payloads and building up our high-volume satellite manufacturing capacity to strengthen our position as more low-Earth orbit or LEO constellation opportunities come to market. Our Globalstar award, where MDA was selected as a prime contractor for 17 LEO satellites with an option for nine additional systems to support direct-to-handset functionality and work to support the U.S. Space Development Agency's LEO constellations, each showcase our strategy in action.

In robotics and space operations, we are leveraging our global leadership in space robotics innovation and long history of success with Canadarm3 to win follow-on space agency work and engage with a full slate of new and exciting commercial opportunities as they emerge to provide both proven technology solutions and on-orbit operational services. Our initial awards from Axiom Space, which is one of a number of commercial players constructing commercial space stations, is an important win, an indicator of the market opportunities as we start to commercialize derivatives of the Canadarm3 robotic technology. In our Geointelligence business, we continue to see robust demand for our Earth observation data and analytics and are advancing work on MDA's next-generation Earth observation constellation, CHORUS, which will provide even greater imaging capabilities and actionable insights for our customers.

We are in the early innings of a multi-decade growth cycle playing out in our end markets. MDA is uniquely qualified to take advantage of this growth. With that growth market as our backdrop, today we are also introducing our full-year 2023 financial outlook. MDA is well-positioned to capitalize on strong customer demand and robust market activity, given our diverse improvement technology offerings. We see activities ramping up in line with our expectations on the majority of our programs and are encouraged by the team's solid execution. In 2023, we expect revenues to be in the CAD 750 million-CAD 800 million range, representing robust year-over-year growth of approximately 20% at the midpoint of guidance.

We expect full-year adjusted EBITDA to be CAD 145 million-CAD 155 million, representing approximately 19%-20% adjusted EBITDA margin. We expect CapEx to be CAD 220 million-CAD 240 million as we continue to invest in our growth initiatives. In short, 2022 was a year of strong growth for MDA, and I'm proud of how the team executed. As we look to 2023, the team is energized by the strong momentum and positive trends we are seeing in our end markets, and MDA has the right technology portfolio to capitalize on the opportunities ahead of us. I'll now give you a view of the industry, an update on MDA's three business areas, and then pass it to Vito for a deep dive on the financials.

Starting with the global space market, 2022 was another strong year for space, with research firm Euroconsult estimating the space market grew by 8% to reach $424 billion last year, while the space economy, which also includes non-contracted government activity, reached $464 billion. Governments around the globe continue to invest in space, with 86 nations spending a total of $103 billion in 2022, up 9% year-over-year. Governments are allocating a higher share of their space budgets to defense programs as the gap between civil and defense spending continues to decrease and is projected to reach parity by 2031. We are seeing increased integration of space-based capability as a routine component of defense and military budgets driven by geopolitical tensions and demand for space-based surveillance and detection systems.

Looking at the big picture, Euroconsult estimates the size of the global space market will grow to over $737 billion within a decade, represented a compounded annual growth rate of 6% over the forecast period. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce projects that the space economy will exceed $1.5 trillion by 2040. In terms of space infrastructure, spacecraft launch activity continued to unfold at a record pace in 2022, with a total of 2,500 spacecraft launched globally, an increase of 36% versus last year, with 89% of those spacecraft operated by commercial players and the majority of launches comprised of communication satellites. The higher activity levels are driven primarily by growth in commercial low-Earth orbit or LEO constellations. Notable industry developments last year included the increased adoption of satellite constellations in mobile communications.

We saw a number of mobile network operators and cell phone manufacturers announce partnerships with satellite operators in a push to enable messaging and Emergency SOS functionality in geographic areas not typically reachable by traditional cell signals. In September, Globalstar disclosed that it will be utilizing its network, including the recently announced enhancement via the 17 additional LEO satellites that MDA is delivering, to support new satellite-enabled services for certain of Apple's products. We saw similar announcements from T-Mobile and Starlink, which are working to add text coverage for T-Mobile customers across the U.S. In October, AT&T announced it is working with AST SpaceMobile to utilize the latter's satellite network to provide coverage in hard-to-reach areas of the U.S. In January of this year, Qualcomm announced a partnership with Iridium to enable satellite messaging for Android phones.

The increased interest in satellite-to-cell offerings is an exciting development for the industry and has the potential to enhance connectivity and bridge the divide for customers in remote areas around the globe. On the space exploration front, we saw the successful launch of Artemis I, a key milestone in NASA's human space flight program to enable humans return to the lunar surface and the long-term exploration on and around the moon. The Artemis program is comprised of multiple missions. Artemis II, which will be a crewed mission, is expected to launch in late 2024 and carry a Canadian astronaut. MDA and the entire industry is excited and eagerly awaiting an announcement from NASA of who will be on that Artemis crew in little over a week on April the third. In addition, we are seeing growing global interest in space exploration.

In 2022, NASA added nine new signatories to its Artemis Accords. Signaling these countries' commitment to safe, long-term, and ethical space exploration. The latest entries bring the group size to 23 nations. The Accords, which was unveiled in October of 2020 to align nations on a common set of principles for space exploration, has tripled in size over the last two years, with interest from many non-traditional spacefaring nations, which are now building their own national space programs. All of this activity bodes well for MDA and our future opportunity funnel, which we would characterize as very healthy. I'll turn to our three business areas. In satellite systems, our opportunity funnel remains strong, and we continue to see good activity levels. Our teams are advancing multiple requests for communication satellite solutions and for a growing number of constellation projects, particularly in low-Earth orbit segment of the market.

This quarter, we announced a new contract with ARSAT, Argentina's national telecommunications company, which is aligned with our strategy of expanding our geographic footprint internationally. The contract will see MDA design and build Ka-band multi-beam antennas for ARSAT's geosynchronous satellite, which will provide high-speed internet as well as digital video and voice services across Argentina and to neighboring countries. The ARSAT antennas will be built in MDA's state-of-the-art high-volume production facility in Montreal. The team also continues to make good progress ramping up on the Globalstar program and advancing the design work. We successfully completed the mission preliminary design review for the LEO constellation, the program has now advanced to the satellite detail design phase. We announced the award from Globalstar in early 2022, where MDA was selected as the prime contractor to enhance Globalstar's LEO constellation.

We view this as an important market validation of MDA, reflecting our strategy to expand our offerings, move up the value chain, and to position our company as a prime integrator for LEO constellations, providing advanced payload capabilities and systems engineering as well as high-volume manufacturing. Moving to the Geointelligence business, we continue to see robust customer demand for our Earth observation offerings, coupled with increased recognition of the role that commercial Earth observation satellites can play to provide near real-time data and analytics to governments and private enterprise. During the year, we made significant progress on the CHORUS constellation program, which includes a fourth-generation MDA-built C-band SAR satellite, in addition to the X-band satellite, which will be supplied by ICEYE. In Q4, the team conducted the mission Critical Design Review, or CDR, and started unit-level build activities.

In 2023, the team is focused on continuing flight unit development and deliveries, building the ground segment subsystems, and detailing constellation operation plans and processes. Work on the Canadian Surface Combatant program, or CSC, one of our long-term government programs, continues to progress in line with the cadence we saw in the previous quarters. The preliminary design review for the vessels was completed late last year, and our teams are now working on maturing the system-level design. MDA is responsible for the design and integration of the electronic warfare system for the ships, which comprises a suite of sensors, including laser warning and electronic system technologies used to detect aerial threats to help protect the men and women of the Royal Canadian Navy. Moving to our robotics and space operations business, we are seeing good traction and activity levels on both the government and commercial fronts.

On the government side, we continue to ramp up work on Phase B of the Canadarm3 contract, which MDA was awarded in early 2022, that will see us completing the preliminary design of Canadarm3's robotic system to be used aboard the NASA-led Lunar Gateway. Program activity is ramping up in line with our expectations, the team is making good progress, closing out the preliminary design and safety review for the robotic interfaces and multiple additional subsystem reviews in the lead-up to a system design review milestone expected in the first half of 2023. In 2022, we also announced two commercial sales of space robotic products derived from Canadarm3 to Axiom Space. MDA is delivering 32 external robotic interfaces and 62 payload interface pairs for Axiom's space station.

The interfaces will allow connectivity to Canadarm2, once operational, Canadarm3 technologies, as well as provide mechanical, electrical, and data connections for payloads that are externally mounted on the Axiom station. The Axiom station, which is now under construction, will initially be attached to the International Space Station and subsequently separate from the ISS when the ISS partners decommission it at the end of the decade. While still in its early days, we are seeing an emerging shift in the commercial landscape for space robotics as more non-government entities look to establish a foothold and hub in the low Earth orbit for a variety of activities, including space manufacturing, human spaceflight missions to LEO, and deep space exploration missions to the Moon and beyond. Shifting to operations, to support the current and anticipated revenue ramp-up, we added 880 new hires in 2022.

This is in addition to the 670 people hired in 2021. We continue to keep a close eye on our supply chain for potential business disruptions, and so far, those have all been manageable. Over the last two years, we've rolled out a number of proactive measures that have served us well. These include designing around known shortages, finding alternatives that are more readily available, ordering materials as early as possible, and building up inventory for some components. For new programs, we are ensuring that our supply chain organization has full visibility early in the process to ensure orders are placed promptly and monitored constantly to mitigate delays. To recap, I'm very proud of what the team accomplished in 2022 and the opportunities that lie ahead. Our team is energized. We remain laser-focused on our priorities.

A strong focus on execution, converting opportunities in our funnel, and expanding our leadership in core markets while maintaining strong profitability and a healthy balance sheet to help us fund our growth initiatives. With that, I'll hand it over to Vito to walk us through the detailed financials.

Vito Culmone
CFO, MDA

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone. For my update here this morning, I'll walk you through our Q4 for full year 2022 financial results and also provide a little color on our 2023 outlook. Overall, Q4 was a strong quarter for MDA, and we're pleased with how the team is executing. In the quarter, we saw strong revenue growth, solid profitability, and healthy backlog at quarter end, which will bode well for our performance in 2023. Total revenues for the fourth quarter were CAD 186.1 million. This represents a CAD 71 million or 61% increase over the same period last year. The year-over-year increase is driven by higher revenues from our satellite systems and robotics and space operations businesses.

On a full year basis, total revenues were CAD 641.2 million, an increase of 34% over 2021. The increase in revenues was primarily driven by execution on our opening backlog, as well as orders added to backlog in 2022, primarily in our SAT Systems and robotics and space operations businesses. By business areas, revenues and Satellite Systems of CAD 84.3 million in Q4 2022 were CAD 51.5 million or 157% higher compared to the same quarter in 2021. The strong showing was driven by higher work volume as new programs ramp up, including the Globalstar program, which was awarded in early 2022.

On a full year basis, revenues for SAT systems increased to CAD 252.2 million for the latest year, representing a CAD 98.9 million or 65% growth over full year 2021. This growth is also attributable to higher volumes on new programs, including the Globalstar program. In robotics and space operations, we saw healthy year-over-year growth with revenues of CAD 47.9 million in the latest quarter, representing CAD 18 million or 60% increase versus Q4 of last year. For the full year 2022, robotics and space operations revenue were CAD 193.7 million, translating to a CAD 60.8 million or 46% year-over-year growth, largely driven by increased activity on the Canadarm3 program.

Revenues in our Geointelligence business of CAD 53.9 million in the latest quarter represent an increase of CAD 1.1 million or 2% year-over-year, reflecting steady work volume. For the full year 2022, revenues for Geointelligence were CAD 195.3 million, representing a CAD 4.6 million or 2% increase compared to 2021 levels. Let's move on to gross profit. As a reminder, gross profit represents our revenue less cost of revenue, which includes material, labor, allocated overhead, SR&ED credits and depreciation. For Q4 2022, gross profit was CAD 58.9 million, representing a CAD 13.5 Million or 30% increase over the same period last year.

Gross margin in the latest quarter was 31.6%, excuse me, was 31.6%, which is in line with our expectations as our program mix evolves. This compares to 39.3% for the same period in 2021, which as a reminder, included a higher percentage of investment tax credits recognized against cost of revenues. For the full year 2022, gross profit was CAD 228.4 million, representing a CAD 60 million increase or 36% increase over 2021. The year-over-year increase was driven by higher work volume performed coupled with higher ITC income recognized this year, with the latter contributing CAD 29 million of the CAD 60.6 million increase. Gross margin for full year 2022 was 35.6%, which compares to gross margin of 35.2% in 2021.

When excluding the impact of the CAD 16.8 million resolution of historical ITC claims recognized in 2022, full year gross margin was 33%. This is in line with our expectations and reflective of strong operating performance throughout 2022. Turning to operating expenses, Q4 operating expenses of CAD 40 million were slightly below last year's metric of CAD 43.3 million, reflecting good cost control and lower intangibles amortization and share-based compensation. On a full year basis, our operating expenses were CAD 153.8 million in 2022, compared to CAD 149.2 million for the 12-month comparative period. The year-over-year increase is primarily due to higher R&D costs as we ramp up development activity on CHORUS and other proprietary technology programs.

The increase in R&D was somewhat offset by lower amortization of intangibles and share-based compensation expenses in 2022. Adjusted EBITDA in the latest quarter was CAD 39.9 million, compared to CAD 26.8 million in Q4 2021, reflecting higher work volumes across the business. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.4% in Q4 2022, compared to 23.2% in the same period last year. The slight year-over-year decline is consistent with our expectations and largely driven by lower gross margin in the latest quarter, somewhat offset by stronger SG&A cost control. On a full year basis, Adjusted EBITDA was CAD 157.9 million, up from 2021 levels of CAD 137.1 million, representing a CAD 20.8 million or 15% year-over-year increase.

Full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA included CAD 16.8 million of ITC income from the resolution of historical ITC claims already mentioned, while full year adjusted EBITDA in 2021 included CAD 24.8 million of CEWS income. Excluding these items, adjusted EBITDA was CAD 141.1 million in 2022, compared to CAD 112.3 million in 2021. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year 2022 was 24.6% compared to 28.7% for 2021. When excluding the aforementioned historical ITC settlement in CEWS income, our EBITDA margin was 22% in 2022 compared to 23.5% in 2021. Throughout 2022, we've demonstrated strong operating performance, focusing on program execution and cost control while simultaneously investing in the growth initiatives which contributed to higher levels of R&D expense.

Moving on to backlog, we ended the quarter with CAD 1.4 billion in backlog, representing an increase of 59% year-over-year. The growth in backlog was driven by the addition of a number of sizable awards in the first half of this year, including Canadarm3 and Globalstar, as well as numerous other smaller awards across our three business areas. Capital expenditures. We remain focused on making the right investments in the business to support our strategic growth initiatives. In Q4 2022, we spent CAD 47.1 million on gross capital expenditures, up from CAD 37 million last year, as we ramp up our development on CHORUS and other growth initiatives. Growth CapEx was CAD 38.5 million in the latest quarter, up from CAD 30.9 million in Q4 of 2021.

On a full year basis, our capital spend was CAD 180.1 million in 2022, compared to approximately CAD 95 million in 2021. We expect this level of spend to continue in 2023 as we advance CHORUS and invest in initiatives to support our growing business, including expanding and modernizing our physical infrastructure. Cash from operations during the quarter generated CAD 40.3 million, compared to cash generation of CAD thirty-four and a half million in Q4 2021. The year-over-year increase was driven by higher net income in Q4 2022 versus the prior quarter. Free cash flow was negative CAD 6.8 million in the latest quarter, and free cash flow after adjusting our growth CapEx investments was positive CAD 31.7 million in Q4 2022.

For the full year 2022, the cash from operations generated CAD 57 million, compared to cash generation of CAD 72.1 million in 2021. A significant contributor to the CAD 15.1 million year-over-year decrease in cash provided by operating activities is CAD 12.7 million in prepayments that we made in 2022 for inventory to be received in 2023 and beyond to support our strategic initiatives. Free cash flow was negative CAD 123 million in 2022, compared to negative CAD 22.5 million in the prior year. The year-over-year decrease in free cash flow was driven by the elevated growth CapEx investments. Free cash flow after adjusting out our growth CapEx was CAD 38.5 million in 2022, compared to CAD 57 million in 2021. Moving on to our balance sheet quickly.

We ended the quarter with a strong financial position and net debt of CAD 204.3 million, available liquidity of CAD 331 million, and net debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA rate of 1.3 x. In summary, this was a strong quarter to wrap up fiscal 2022, and we're encouraged by the positive momentum we're seeing across our business. Turning to outlook, as Mike noted, we are introducing our 2023 financial outlook and are well positioned to capitalize on strong customer demand and robust market activity given our diverse and proven technology and product offerings. For fiscal 2023, we expect full year revenues to be between CAD 750 million and CAD 800 million, representing robust year-over-year growth of approximately 20% at the midpoint of guidance.

We expect full year adjusted EBITDA to be CAD 145 million-CAD 155 million, representing approximately 19%-20% adjusted EBITDA margin. We expect capital expenditures to be CAD 220 million-CAD 240 million in 2023, primarily comprising of growth investments to support CHORUS and the previously outlined growth initiatives across our three business areas. Turning to Q1 2023, we expect revenues to grow by approximately 50% compared to Q1 2022 levels. With a number of large programs now in our backlog, our book of business is strong. We remain focused on disciplined execution on our customer commitments and leveraging our capabilities and technology to grow profitably in core and emerging markets in line with our long-term plan. Mike, with that, I'll turn it back to you.

Mike Greenley
CEO, MDA

Thank you, Vito. I think with that, we will open it up for questions. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the one on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset up before pressing any keys. One moment please for your first question. First question comes from Thanos Moschopoulos of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanos Moschopoulos
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst in Technology, BMO Capital Markets

Hi, good morning.

Mike Greenley
CEO, MDA

Good morning.

Thanos Moschopoulos
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst in Technology, BMO Capital Markets

Hey, Mike. Just given the, you know, all the geopolitical things that are going on, can you maybe spend a moment drilling on the opportunities in the defense pipeline? I mean, obviously, I guess I should put it well for long-term CHORUS demand, has this prompted any acceleration in the timeframe for DSPI? Canada obviously looking to upgrade its NORAD infrastructure, which may bring some opportunities in the U.S. You're obviously building some antennas for U.S. defense prime. Just, can you speak to maybe some of the opportunities that you see over, you know, the next year or two stemming from defense? Thanks.

Mike Greenley
CEO, MDA

Yeah, sure. I can talk about a bit. I think you just provided a good summary. Yeah, look, there definitely is, you know, things that are occurring there. You mentioned the activity that we're seeing in SDA in the U.S. for LEO constellations. Those constellations that follow, like, the different tranches of those, continues to expand, as the military community is using LEO constellations to have a more robust communications network around the world. That is solid and continues to feed into the pipeline, as we continue to supply satellite technologies to most, if not all, of the prime contractors in the U.S. on that U.S. defense LEO constellation activity. That would continue. On the...

Sticking with communications, you know, military communications continues to be important globally, both in terms of militaries looking to acquire communication networks such as the, you know, the U.S. SDA that we just talked about, within the NORAD modernization program in Canada that you mentioned. There's a program for northern communications that's in that we would, you know, continue to track as well. The Earth observation you mentioned. You know, we saw, you know, some uptick in the global market as a result of the Ukraine activity that caused the need for, you know, Earth observation products to go into Ukraine. It also caused, you know, various countries to realize what they could obtain from commercial sources.

That causes an increased dialogue globally, with, you know, various nations in terms of, you know, what types of earth observation information can they have access to. Good dialogue there globally. In terms of like, you know, new systems, you mentioned DSPI, which is a, an announced Canadian program for the future, which is also now part of the NORAD modernization program. That's there. I think we see the opportunities for both, you know, new system delivery, in the defense realm for radar-based earth observation and other sensors, in addition to increased, you know, products and services commercially. CHORUS, for example, you know, would have a strong opportunity to deliver into increasing defense and intelligence community demand as well as commercial customers.

There's a number of things there that are keeping us busy as the, as the, defense, need increases.

Thanos Moschopoulos
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst in Technology, BMO Capital Markets

Great. Thanks for that color. Just a couple of financial questions for Vito. How should we think about working capital over the next year? Obviously investment, this year, given the program ramps, would you expect negative working capital or should that be contributor to cash over the next year?

Vito Culmone
CFO, MDA

Yeah. Thanks, Thanos. No, we've been really, really pleased with our working capital progress throughout 2022. When you look back, with the significant growth, and I think our working capital draw in 2022 was close to CAD 16 million. As we work our way into 2023, don't see a significant cash requirement for working capital. We do a really focused job in ensuring that our milestone payments are matched up against our outflows and on a program by program basis, look to always be in a cash neutral to positive position. The short answer is don't expect a meaningful working capital draw here into 2023 at all.

Thanos Moschopoulos
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst in Technology, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Then finally, how should we think about linearity throughout the year? You obviously gave us full year guidance, but, you know, should we see kind of a steady ramp, given the various programs that is ramping up? Or anything to call out as far as the cadence of the quarters?

Vito Culmone
CFO, MDA

Yeah, no, I think it is a real nice steady year. you know, we gave guidance to Q1. We gave our full year guidance. If you sort of map Q1 to our full year guidance divide by four, you're sort of in that range. you know, we'll obviously see what the back half of the year brings in relation to additional programs perhaps and whatnot, as the plan stands and the guidance stands, it's a real nice steady quarter-over-quarter type year.

Thanos Moschopoulos
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst in Technology, BMO Capital Markets

Great. I'll pass the line. Thanks.

Mike Greenley
CEO, MDA

Yeah, you're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Steve Strackhouse
VP in Equity Research Aerospace and Defense, RBC Capital Markets

Hi, good morning, Mike, Vito, and Shereen. This is actually Steve Strackhouse on for Ken Herbert. Congrats on the nice quarter this morning. I was hoping you could just kinda dive a little bit further into the free cash flow expectations for this year. I know you just touched on working capital, you also guided to a growth CapEx of about CAD 200 million. I was hoping we could get a little bit more detail on kinda what that use of the growth CapEx is for this year.

Vito Culmone
CFO, MDA

Steve, good morning. The largest contributor to our growth CapEx plans, of course, is the continued development of course, in addition to obviously supporting our infrastructure and strategic programs in satellite and robotics. That's very consistent. We expect our total CapEx to be in the range that I provided, CAD 220 million-CAD 240 million, with the majority of that essentially being what we term as growth CapEx. When you map that against, you know, our EBITDA guidance and other aspects of our cash flow, it will be a negative cash flow year as expected and consistent with our plan, our longer-term plan. Balance sheet's in great shape, 1.3x here at the end of the year.

No concern at all as we lean into these very long-term focused and important strategic growth CapEx on our end.

Steve Strackhouse
VP in Equity Research Aerospace and Defense, RBC Capital Markets

Great. Just a follow-up there on CHORUS. Can you provide us any update on CHORUS? I know you noted the CDR, but I wanted to ask how the unit level builds are going, and if there's anything in the supply chain that you're seeing as far as delays or if there's any, you know, learning anything significant in that process that's maybe even changed some prior thoughts on the program.

Mike Greenley
CEO, MDA

Yeah, no changes to prior thoughts. Continued optimism and enthusiasm, with, you know, getting CHORUS done. I think we mentioned as we finished the year in 2022, we, you know, we finished that mission-level CDR, which has caused Q1 to, you know, start unit-level builds. Definitely exciting to be able to, you know, drop into the satellite production facilities in Montreal and see CHORUS pieces coming together. That's exciting to see for everybody. I think there's, you know, there's always in any satellite program, you've got, you know, puts and takes in your schedule and supply chains. To answer your question, like, there's nothing new or market that changes our views on the program or our expectations.

The teams continue to work very hard on it and we continue to get it done. Engaging with customers, we definitely see enthusiasm there. You know, we have a strong customer base globally on RADARSAT-2. Folks are looking forward to CHORUS coming, having a C-band and an X-band satellite working together in the same constellation. With the, you know, the pipeline type of opportunities now, you know, start to heat up once we get into unit-level production and everyone can see we're moving ahead well with this, we're definitely getting increased energy in the pipeline conversations moving forward.

Steve Strackhouse
VP in Equity Research Aerospace and Defense, RBC Capital Markets

Great. Thanks so much. I'll hop back with you.

Mike Greenley
CEO, MDA

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you do have a question, please press star one at this time. The next question comes from Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Hey, good morning, guys.

Mike Greenley
CEO, MDA

Hey.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Following up on Globalstar, can you guys talk about an update in financing? It looks like they've secured help from Apple. Can you remind us regarding the revenue and cash contribution for the program in 2023, and when you expect peak cash or peak revenue is for the program?

Vito Culmone
CFO, MDA

Hi, Kristine, it's Vito. Maybe I'll take the revenue one first. You know, the revenue is essentially pretty straight line over the three years. I would expect 2023 revenues to be largely in line with where 2022 levels were, give or take, you know, a few million CAD. That was pretty straight line over the three years from the program that we announced, obviously, which was, what? $350-ish million U.S., I believe, in that range. In respect to the financing, you're absolutely right. Obviously, you've seen some very encouraging announcements coming out of Globalstar. We can't speak for them, but publicly, obviously, what they've announced, we're in very close contact with them.

We're encouraged by where they stand in their last couple of little steps that they gotta take to arrange for their financing. We'll just sit by patiently as they move to execution through that process.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks, Vito. Following up on the growth CapEx expectations for the year, considering the financing environment in general for the market became more difficult, is there an opportunity for the government to step in and support you with your CapEx requirements?

Vito Culmone
CFO, MDA

You know, we always look for the government. They're a key customer of ours. When we talk program specifics, we do get in situations where we discuss cash related to the programs. Our plan at this point in time doesn't rely at all on any, on any government, meaningful government assistance. With what I described, the balance sheet's in great shape. Again, we continue to talk to government and ensure that, you know, they pay and are represented appropriately in these arrangements. I think it's important to note that our balance sheet stands on its own as we currently sit here.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Great. If I could sneak a third one in. On Telesat, is it still possible to get Telesat revenue in 2023? Can you give us an update in terms of what you're hearing from your customer? Also, if they're able to secure financing, is this still an CAD 800 million contract by the time you get to 2024?

Mike Greenley
CEO, MDA

Yeah. On the Lightspeed community, as you know, and we talked about we don't have any Telesat in our plan at this time. They definitely, from the signals we see in the market, continue to work to try to progress their project and get their financing arranged. We continue to ensure that our, you know, bids and contribution to that program, like any other program in the pipeline, we have a number of them, you know, remain current and valid so that, you know, they can act upon them should they get their financing put in place. We stand by at the ready. Our scope has not decreased in any of our conversations to answer your scope of work question.

You know, should they get the go, you know, it would, you know, continue to be that size of a program for us, at least, moving forward into the future. It's a actively worked pipeline opportunity like many others. We continue to, you know, wish them well in getting the project, organized and moving forward.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks, Mike. Thanks, Vito.

Vito Culmone
CFO, MDA

Thanks, Kristine.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back to Mike Greenley for closing remarks.

Mike Greenley
CEO, MDA

Okay. Well, thank you. Thanks everyone for your time this morning. At this time, we look forward to updating you on our progress at our next earnings call in May. We can dive into the first quarter and see what's new information we can share at that time. Thanks again for the time today.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

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