Morguard North American Residential Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX:MRG.UN)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Oct 27, 2022

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Morguard North American Residential REIT Third Quarter Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Thursday, October 27th, 2022. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Paul Miatello. Please go ahead.

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Thank you, operator. Thank you, and good afternoon, everybody on the call. Thanks for joining us this afternoon for the REIT's Third Quarter Results Conference Call. With us on the call today, we've got Rai Sahi, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, myself, Paul Miatello, Senior Vice President. We have Angela Sahi, Executive Vice President in charge of Canadian operations, Chris Newman, our Chief Financial Officer, John Talano, Senior Vice President of US Operations, Patrick Seibert, Vice President of Corporate Development, and Beverley Flynn, Senior Vice President, General Counsel. We've had a very positive third quarter for the REIT. There's a number of highlights, so I'm gonna turn it over to Chris Newman, our CFO, now for some comments and then we'll open the floor for some questions. Chris, go ahead.

Chris Newman
CFO, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Thank you, Paul. As is customary, I'll provide some comments on the REIT's financial performance and financial position. In terms of our financial position, the REIT completed the third quarter of 2022 with total assets amounting to CAD 4.2 billion, higher compared to CAD 3.5 billion at December 31st, 2021, resulting from a fair value increase on the REIT's income-producing properties of approximately CAD 210 million. The value increase is a result of cap rate compression realized on most of our U.S. portfolio during the first quarter, as well as increases in underwritten NOI in both the U.S. and Canadian properties, supported by strong rent growth. During the third quarter, the REIT completed the following transactions.

On August 24th, the REIT sold its property located in Slidell, Louisiana, comprising 144 suites for net proceeds of $17.6 million after closing costs and the repayment of mortgages payable secured by the property. On August 8th, the REIT acquired Echelon Chicago, a multi-suite residential property comprising 350 suites located in Chicago for a purchase price of $135.6 million, including closing costs, and was partially funded by a mortgage in the amount of $74.7 million at an interest rate of 4.71% for a term of 7 years.

On September 26, the REIT acquired Rockville Town Square, a retail property comprising approximately 187,000 sq ft of commercial area located in Rockville, Maryland, for a purchase price of $33.8 million, including closing costs. Rockville Town Square is a part of a mixed-use complex where the REIT currently owns a 50% interest in the residential property, the Fenestra Apartments, through a joint venture with Morguard Corporation. Subsequent to quarter end, the REIT sold its property located in Coconut Creek, Florida, comprising 340 suites for net proceeds of $71.6 million after closing costs and the repayment of mortgages secured by the property.

The REIT's disposition of three assets this year supports management's strategy to dispose of assets where values are benefiting from strong market demand and to focus on opportunities to acquire properties located in urban centers and major suburban markets in Canada and the U.S. To add, the REIT utilized the tax-deferred strategy under Internal Revenue Code Section 1031 in connection with its U.S. property dispositions and is pursuing a 1031 exchange on the REIT's recent disposition completed subsequent to quarter end. Under a 1031 exchange, subject to certain conditions, the REIT will be able to defer tax payable upon the acquisition of a replacement property.

The REIT finished the third quarter with CAD 23 million of cash on hand and CAD 76 million advanced to Morguard Corporation under its CAD 100 million revolving credit facility, which provides the REIT with CAD 176 million of availability under this facility. In addition, subsequent to quarter end, the REIT has approximately $70 million from the net proceeds on the disposition of the property located in Coconut Creek, Florida. The REIT completed the third quarter with CAD 1.3 billion of long-term debt obligations. On July first, the REIT completed the refinance of a property located in Palm Beach County, Florida, at an interest rate of 4.19% for a term of 10 years, providing additional net proceeds of $23 million.

As at September 30th, 2022, the REIT's overall weighted average term to maturity was 4.9 years, a decrease from five years at December 31st, 2021, and the weighted average interest rate increased to 3.45% from 3.31% at December 31, 2021. The REIT's debt-to-gross book value ratio improved to 36.7% at September 30th, 2022, down compared to 40.2% since December 31st, 2021. Turning to the statement of income. Net income was CAD 81.2 million for the three months ended September 30th, 2022, compared to CAD 86.7 million in 2021.

The 5.5 million dollar decrease in net income was primarily due to a lower fair value gain on real estate properties of CAD 40.7 million relative to the gain recorded during 2021 and was partially offset by a higher fair value gain on Class B LP Units of CAD 22.7 million, reflecting a decrease in the REIT's unit price during the third quarter and was also offset by an increase in NOI of CAD 7.7 million. IFRS net operating income was CAD 44.9 million for the third quarter of 2022, an increase of CAD 7.7 million or 20.8% compared to 2021. The change in the foreign exchange rate increased NOI by CAD 1.9 million of the overall CAD 7.7 million variance last year.

On the same property proportionate basis, NOI in the U.S. increased by $3 million or 20%, as an increase in revenue from AMR growth, net of higher vacancy and an increase in ancillary revenue was partially offset by an increase in operating expenses. NOI in Canada increased by CAD 1.3 million or 10.5%, mainly due to AMR growth and lower vacancy, partly offset by an increase in operating expenses. The change in foreign exchange increased NOI by CAD 1.6 million.

Interest expense increased by CAD 0.7 million for the third quarter of 2022 compared to 2021, primarily due to an increase in interest on mortgages of CAD 1.4 million, mainly resulting from additional net mortgage proceeds on the completion of the REIT's refinancing during 2022 and during the fourth quarter of 2021, as well as a net increase from the impact of acquisition and disposition, as well, was partially offset by a higher non-cash fair value gain on the convertible debentures conversion option of CAD 6 million. The REIT's third quarter performance translated into basic FFO of CAD 21.1 million, an increase of CAD 5 million or 30.9% when compared to 2021.

On a per unit basis, FFO was a record high at CAD 0.38 per unit for the months ended September 30th, 2022, an increase of CAD 0.09 compared to CAD 0.29 per unit in 2021. The increase in FFO per unit was due to the following. On a same property proportionate basis in local currency, an increase in NOI from higher AMR and lower vacancy, partly offset by an increase in interest expense and trust expenses, had a CAD 0.04 per unit positive impact, and a change in the foreign exchange rate had a CAD 0.02 per unit positive impact.

Also, an increase from the contribution of the REIT's development property, which reached stabilization in October 2021, had a CAD 0.01 per unit positive impact, and an increase in other income, primarily from an increase in interest income on the Morguard Facility, had a CAD 0.02 per unit positive impact. The REIT's FFO payout ratio continued to decline to 46.6% for the three months ended September 30th, 2022, a very conservative level which allows for significant cash retention. In addition, the REIT is pleased to announce an increase in annual cash distribution of CAD 0.02 per unit, an increase of 2.86%. This will bring the distribution to CAD 0.72 per unit on an annualized basis from the current level of CAD 0.70 per unit.

Operationally, the REIT's average monthly rent in Canada increased to CAD 1,573 or 2.8% compared to 2021, reflecting the quality of our Canadian portfolio. During the third quarter, the Canadian portfolio turned over 44% of total suites, and achieved 12.6% AMR growth on suite turnover. While in the U.S., same property AMR increased by 13.8% compared to 2021, having an average monthly rent of $1,704 at the end of September 2022, as the REIT continued its strong performance, benefiting from strong market fundamentals across all regions. The REIT's occupancy in Canada finished the third quarter of 2022 at 98.3% compared to 92.7% at September 30th, 2021.

Overall, occupancy has increased across the portfolio as leasing activity increased to pre-pandemic levels as economic conditions improved and as people returned to their normal routine. Same property occupancy in the U.S. of 95.8% at September 30th, 2022 was slightly lower compared to 96.3% at September 30th, 2021, as U.S. occupancy is still maintaining optimum levels. During the nine months ended September 30th, 2022, the REIT's total CapEx amounted to CAD 22.9 million. That included revenue enhancing in-suite improvements, common area and exterior building additions, as well as we continue to ensure that we maintain the structural and overall safety of our properties. The REIT's collection of rental income during the nine months ended September 30, 2022 continues to be materially in line with historical collection rates.

At this time, I'll turn this call back over to the moderator to open up the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, please press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. Questions will be taken in the order they are received. If you'd like to withdraw your request, please press the star key followed by the number two. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. One moment while we assemble the queue. Okay, we'll take our questions from Jonathan Kelcher with TD Cowen. Your line's open.

Jonathan Kelcher
Equity Analyst, TD Securities

Thanks. Good afternoon. First question, just on the rent growth that you're seeing in the U.S., we're seeing more reports of monthly rents kind of stalling out, and I just wanna get your view on what you are seeing and what you expect over the next couple of months?

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Hi, John. John, we'll pass it over to John Talano in the U.S. to answer that question on US operations.

Jonathan Kelcher
Equity Analyst, TD Securities

Sure.

John Talano
Senior Vice President of US Operations, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Hi, everyone. I would say we are definitely seeing a slowing of our increases in market rates on new leases. That's generally, it just depends on the market. We still are getting increases. We have a significant buffer between our scheduled rents, the in-place rents, and where market rents are today. That is about a CAD 250 difference. There's definitely some room there. Overall, we see it slowing. We haven't seen it stall. Also going into the winter months, you know, those do happen in our northern markets anyway, seasonally. I wouldn't say it's super concerning currently.

Jonathan Kelcher
Equity Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. Do you see yourselves trying to push occupancy up heading into the winter months?

John Talano
Senior Vice President of US Operations, Morguard North American Residential REIT

We do that on an individual property basis with our revenue management system. Yes, we take the pressure off some of the rental increases in the colder markets, depending on which renewals are up when. We generally have a lower turnover during the winter months as well, which is designed, right? We actually do that through the revenue management system so that we have more of our leases expiring over the summer months when our folks are moving.

Jonathan Kelcher
Equity Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. That's helpful. Then just secondly, on the 1031, the proceeds. Like, can you just let us know how much you need to spend? Are there any markets that you're looking at in particular?

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

The amount of equity we still need to put to work is, call it, in and around CAD 60 million-CAD 65 million to be fully sheltered from tax. You know, the rules are complicated, but at a general level, that's what we need to do.

Jonathan Kelcher
Equity Analyst, TD Securities

U.S., correct?

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

U.S. That's U.S. dollars. Yeah. Sorry, John, the second part of your question was?

Jonathan Kelcher
Equity Analyst, TD Securities

Are there any particular markets that you're?

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

All markets.

Jonathan Kelcher
Equity Analyst, TD Securities

Looking at?

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Yeah, we're looking at basically sticking to our existing footprint for the most part. Not to say that we wouldn't look at others, but you know, we are tending to look you know, more favorably at our existing footprint. Everything in the U.S. that we're in now, you know, it's open season on those markets.

Jonathan Kelcher
Equity Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. That's it for me. I'll turn it back. Thanks.

Operator

I'd like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star one on your telephone keypad. Next, we'll go to Jimmy Shan with RBC Capital Markets. Your line's open.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks. Just in terms of deploying that CAD 65 million, CAD 60 million-CAD 65 million, what are you seeing in terms of pricing? Because it sounds like there's very limited volume, very limited listings. Just kinda how are you thinking about underwriting assets in this kind of environment?

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Yeah, Jimmy Shan, it's Paul Miatello. I'll start with a couple of comments, then I'll turn it over. You know, generally, transaction market has definitely slowed. The bidding pool has shallowed. You know, we just went through all these dispositions and, you know, when we sold the first one, Atlanta, you know, we had hundreds, you know, confidentiality agreements signed, you know, and then, you know, as interest rates went up, you know, interest declined. Obviously, you know, it makes sense with where we are in the interest rate cycle. You know, the bidding pool is definitely more shallow. The pricing is different, I would say, depending on the market.

Like, if you're still in these primary markets where you're still seeing quite a bit of rent growth, you know, there are bidders showing up and pricing probably hasn't, you know, really changed that much. Pricing might be off 5%-10% maybe, depending on the market. You're not seeing, you know, a whole lot of distress. Again, it's all sort of, you know, the overarching comment is that the transaction velocity is well down. Maybe I'll turn it over to John or Patrick if they have any further comments.

Patrick Seibert
VP of Corporate Development, Morguard North American Residential REIT

John, Patrick here. I mean, Paul's comments are completely accurate. Well, you know, access to deal reputation and creativity only puts us on the top of everybody's mind. We have all sorts of things going on, some that are relevant, some that aren't. A lot of it we can't share on this call. You know, we pour it all into the mixer, and we try and figure out what's best for the shareholders.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

We're hearing a lot about sort of assets, transactions that are getting done today in the U.S., especially in the ones with, you know, in major markets, as you mentioned, are being done at negative leverage. Is that how you're thinking in deploying that CAD 60 million is gonna have to look like?

Patrick Seibert
VP of Corporate Development, Morguard North American Residential REIT

I mean, the short answer to that.

You know, 70% of the things on our desks is yes. That is economics 101, unfortunately, but that's the Fed. We think that's a no long-term phenomenon. You know, as much as cap rates, we're focused on quality of asset. I think that's really what Echelon is all about and the 1031 exchange program is all about, quality of asset, quality of return, consistency in growth, blah, blah. That's it.

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Yeah. You know, just to add to the math, you know, around the trades that we're doing. I mean, we're selling assets in the southeast, you know, at 3 caps and 3.25 caps on trailing income. You know, we're having really good opportunities to redeploy that capital very accretively. Like Patrick said, you know, we're thinking very long term with the assets. You know, finances come and go. Yeah, certainly for the time being, there is some negative leverage for sure.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. You have until when to deploy that for to the end of the year?

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

180 days from October 6th, which was the day of disposition of Willow.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Okay.

John Talano
Senior Vice President of US Operations, Morguard North American Residential REIT

The only thing that I would add, this is John Talano, is that we are seeing a lot more off-market deals as well. There is a lot of activity, and there's a lot of folks that are calling us, which we didn't have before. I would say from that perspective, we have much more to choose from for sure.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Right. Just so I understand the kind of cap rate range we're talking about here. For you know, for you know, like the Atlanta as an example, like what would the cap rate look like in today? When you said it's down maybe 10%, maybe 15%, or 5%-10% you said. Are we talking about mid-4 caps, 5 caps? What what's the ballpark?

John Talano
Senior Vice President of US Operations, Morguard North American Residential REIT

In Atlanta.

Patrick Seibert
VP of Corporate Development, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Patrick, you want to.

John Talano
Senior Vice President of US Operations, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Yeah.

Patrick Seibert
VP of Corporate Development, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Sorry, John. Go ahead. You start.

John Talano
Senior Vice President of US Operations, Morguard North American Residential REIT

In Atlanta, we were recently looking at product that was closer to a 5 cap, and those values were actually for new product, were actually lower than what we sold our mid-1980 vintage for.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Okay.

Patrick Seibert
VP of Corporate Development, Morguard North American Residential REIT

We have to repeat, we have to emphasize, though, that Paul's original issue that we take everything individually and every situation is different is very important. Looking at affordability, where rents are, where they can be moved, revenue management systems, you know, where there's excessive risk, where you need to be rewarded. You know, yields are up, but it depends.

John Talano
Senior Vice President of US Operations, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Yeah, our focus is definitely quality of asset and location.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Then just a quick follow-up on the, you mentioned on the slowing of increases in the US. You're still seeing increases in new leases. What is it slowing to, roughly?

John Talano
Senior Vice President of US Operations, Morguard North American Residential REIT

It depends. I mean, it completely depends on the market. I would say it's going to more normal increases. We saw rates of 3%-5% in previous years. Again, a lot of our AMR growth will be tied to the difference between what is in place today and what market is. There's a $250-ish difference across the portfolio today just in the residents we do have.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, it's star one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for a moment to see if there are any further questions. Once again, star one. Okay. Actually, we do have a question. Next, we'll go to Hal Dash, Private Investor. Go ahead, Hal.

Hal Dash
Analyst, Private Investor

I just have a quick, quite general question. It sounds like you're moving from the southeast to the northeast, as far as your purchases and sales, and I'm wondering what the rationale is for that, and what percentage is in the northeast versus the southeast now?

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Hi, Hal Dash. Thanks for your question. It's Paul Miatello here. I mean, yeah, perhaps there's maybe a bit of a shift. I mean, obviously Chicago has become an important market for us over, you know, that's happened over many years. It has not happened recently. You know, but we're still looking to be very well, you know, diversified, you know, between north, northeast, southeast. We don't have any, you know, targets or allocations that I can speak to on this call. To say, you know, repeat something that's been said a few times, you know, we're largely, you know, looking at the scale or on the scale of quality for these assets. So, you know, we've been able to achieve that in Chicago probably more recently.

We will maintain a pretty disciplined balance. It's not like we're shifting all to the Northeast or anything like that. We're remaining pretty disciplined and diversifying in terms of geographies.

Hal Dash
Analyst, Private Investor

Roughly what percentage is in the north, versus the south now?

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

I don't know that. Chris, can you comment?

Chris Newman
CFO, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Yeah. On the portfolio, including Canada, it's about 15%-18% of suites and NOI is represented from the Northeast.

Hal Dash
Analyst, Private Investor

Thank you.

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Thanks.

Operator

Okay. We do have, looks like, a follow-up from Jimmy Shan with RBC Capital Markets. Your line's open. Mr. Shan, your line's open.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah, sorry. I was just gonna follow up on Canada. Occupancy moved up a decent amount this quarter. I'm wondering if you just could make some general comments on what you're seeing, you know, in the GTA. It seems like things have moved up quite a bit in the last couple of months in terms of market rent and even occupancy.

Chris Newman
CFO, Morguard North American Residential REIT

No problem. Yeah, Angela, do you mind then?

Angela Sahi
EVP of Canadian operations, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Sure, yeah. Across our portfolio in the GTA, we've actually, our occupancy's up significantly. Mississauga, we're at 99% in occupancy already. In the Toronto portfolio, we're almost at 98%. We're at 98.6% By the end of the year, we'll be approaching 100%. Ottawa, for example, at 160 Chapel, we were at 79% at the end of last quarter, and we're at 99.3% now. We've seen a big recovery. A lot of it is just with whether it's been turnover with students coming back in Ottawa. Edmonton is still a little bit of a challenge, but we're approaching the low 90s now, and we do expect by the end of the year to hopefully be kind of mid-90s in occupancy. GTA is looking really strong.

We have a couple of buildings that are 100% occupied in Mississauga. The trend is definitely more positive. The demand is higher for rental product with what's going on with interest rates in the housing market, and obviously the influx of immigration and just lack of housing supply. We're seeing lots of turnover as well compared to previous years. I think that's what we're finding, and we're able to increase rents pretty significantly on turnover as well.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Right. Are you at a point where you're increasing rents at about the same pace as you were pre-COVID?

Angela Sahi
EVP of Canadian operations, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Pre-COVID, definitely.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah. Okay.

Angela Sahi
EVP of Canadian operations, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Yeah. Yeah. Maybe even a little bit more.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Global Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Mm-hmm. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Okay. I'm showing we have no further questions, and I'll turn the call back over to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

Paul Miatello
Senior Vice President, Morguard North American Residential REIT

Okay. Thank you, operator, and thank you everybody for joining us today. We look forward to speaking to you at the next conference call. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

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