Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Obsidian Energy's First Quarter 2025 Results and Annual G eneral and Special Meeting Webcast. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star then zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mark Hawkins, Vice President Legal. Please go ahead.
Yeah, and thank you for joining us on our call today. First, I'd like to point out that we will be referring to forward-looking information in connection with Obsidian Energy and the subject matter of today's call. By its nature, this information contains forecasts, assumptions, and expectations about future outcomes, so we remind you that it's subject to the risks and uncertainties affecting every business, including ours. Please refer to the disclosure at the end of the presentation, along with our public disclosure filings available on both [SEDAR+] and EDGAR Systems, for a full discussion of significant factors and risks that could affect Obsidian Energy or that could affect future outcomes for the company. Thank you for your time, and now I'd like to turn it over to President and CEO Stephen Loukas.
Thank you, Mark. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. I would like to turn your attention to page three, where I'll quickly go through a corporate overview. Our second quarter 2025 estimated production midpoint is approximately 29,200 BOEs a day, and that is pro forma for the sale of our Pembina assets, which we closed during the first week of April. Our production mix is approximately 72% oil and liquids. We currently have approximately 71 million shares outstanding as of April 30, which translates to a market capitalization of CAD 385 million. We have forecasted net debt of approximately CAD 255 million at the end of the second quarter, which translates to net debt to FFO of approximately 1.1 times.
The map on the right basically dictates our production by geographic area, and you'll see that it's basically itemized across Peace River, our light oil business, which consists of Willesden Green, PC11, and our Viking position. Turning your attention to page four outlines our strategy. Our strategy is to deliver superior shareholder returns, and it's really driven by a couple of key pillars. One, the ultimate goal is to drive per-share growth via a combination of production growth, share buybacks, and the reduction of debt. The strategy has been to utilize the free cash flow generation from our light oil assets and reinvest that into growing our Peace River asset. We always look to further grow the intrinsic value of the business via targeted bolt-on transactions, farmings, or potential activity at land sales.
We look to achieve all that via maintaining a prudent leverage position as well as having ample liquidity. Turning your attention to page five, we outline our strategic advantages. First, we have a high-quality asset base with an established light oil with a number of light oil assets that provide stable production, free cash flow generation, and also have a significant potential for future growth. We have not spent a lot of time talking about the growth potential of our light oil assets, but we certainly have the ability to do so in a market environment that is conducive to doing that. Additionally, as we have outlined over the last year and a half, our Peace River area offers substantial future production growth as well as the potential for EOR, which we have commenced an initial waterflood project in our Dawson field.
We have additional upside via exploration, given the significant and substantial size of our undeveloped land position in Peace River. We've got a strong balance sheet, and we're in a stable financial position. We have the ability to self-fund our growth while providing a return of capital, which we've chosen to execute via share repurchases. We have a team that is strongly, is very technically adept, provides proven expertise and knowledge of our subsurface assets, and is also very good on the operational front. Lastly, we're committed to the highest health and safety standards. We would consider corporate governance to be a core competency, and we're very active participants within the communities where we operate in. With that, I'll turn it over to Gary Sykes to walk you through the subsequent slides.
Thanks, Steve. In these next few slides, I'd like to cover off on a reminder of some of the key attributes on our recent operated Pembina sale. As our stakeholders will know, we closed this transaction early last month for a total consideration of CAD 320 million. That consideration consisted of CAD 211 million in cash after closing adjustments, which was deployed to reduce debt, approximately CAD 9.1 million in InPlay shares, which represents around 1/3 of the outstanding shares of InPlay, and the acquisition of a 34.6% working interest in the Willesden Green unit, production unit number two, which takes our ownership in this operated unit close to 100%, where we have extensive future development plans.
Just in terms of some of the key metrics, the disposition represented 10,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day as an average number for 2024, and we sold the asset for what we consider as full and fair value based on the recent present transactions and the strong 2.7x multiple that we achieved based on 2024 net operating income. Coming out of this transaction then, at a high level, this strengthens our balance sheet in a material way and allows us an increased level of focus and optionality on our two key operated banner assets, being namely our heavy oil Peace River asset and our light oil Willesden Green position. Next slide, please. I dropped into some additional specificity around what we see as some of the primary merits of the disposition.
Post-transaction, on an operated basis, we like the effective balance in production between our light and heavy oil positions at Willesden Green and Peace River, respectively. Beyond that, our operated Viking asset continues to provide good additional optionality in our portfolio, and we retain our working interest in the Pembina Cardium Unit #11 asset, which continues to provide stable and valuable contributions to our overall production mix. I've already talked about our use of cash proceeds to strengthen the balance sheet, so let me move to a few other key characteristics, namely OpEx and ARO, or asset retirement obligations. Here on the OpEx side of the house, we see around CAD 1.60 per boe improvement go forward, given the mature nature of Pembina.
Related to that maturity, a commensurate significant decrease of over 50% of our corporate asset retirement obligations, such that we now have a very different ARO book, reducing our obligations on an undiscounted basis from CAD 747 million to approximately CAD 357 million. Finally, on this slide, and as mentioned previously, we have retained a material position in InPlay as part of the transaction, which allows us exposure to potential future upside, in addition to numerous options to crystallize value for existing Obsidian shareholders. Next slide, please. Okay, moving on, let me talk about some notable highlights in our year to date. From an operations perspective, we have been heavily weighted towards our heavy oil asset, where we had five rigs running in Q1.
Primary objectives were threefold, namely, one, utilize the frozen ground conditions to access exploration and appraisal targets in both the Clearwater and Blues ky formations to further delineate our land base and build future drilling inventory. Two, approaching breakup conditions, pivot to existing strong inventory in established field areas. Number three, execute on our first dedicated Clearwater injection pilot. This is a five-well pad in our Dawson field. Two producers are online. One producer will be brought online shortly. We are presently drilling the first of two dedicated water injection wells. Needless to say, we are pretty excited about this pilot and the potential implications for future area development in terms of a broader implementation of enhanced oil recovery technology. Just to finish off then on the financial highlights, as discussed, we completed the Pembina asset sale.
We also completed our semi-annual borrowing base redetermination with our syndicated credit facility for CAD 235 million, with a note that we were approximately CAD 30 million drawn on this facility immediately post the Pembina transaction closing. Finally, we continued with our return of capital to shareholders commitment through the repurchase of some 3.5 million shares for a consideration of CAD 24.5 million through May the 6th of this year. With that, I will pass it over to Peter Scott for CFO.
Thanks, Gary. Appreciate that. Good afternoon, everybody. I'll take you through some of the results of the company for Q1. As a reminder, this does include the Pembina assets that we sold immediately post the quarter. You can see that readily in the production profile in the chart on the right there, as well as see it on the net debt chart as well. Just taking you through some of our results for Q1, it was a good quarter for us. Production was 38,400 boe a day. That's up 12% over Q1 last year. The growth is all from heavy oil as we executed on our Peace River program. Capital expenditures for the quarter were CAD 128 million. Q1 for us is usually a heavy capital quarter. As is typical, last year we were CAD 114 million. Again, still a pretty heavy capital expenditure level.
Decommissioning expenditures on ARO, CAD 6.6 million. As we look at our operating costs, they are up a little bit Q1 this year at CAD 1,572 versus CAD 1,391 last year. The reason for that is the Peace River activity and as the wells initially come on stream and we have more water handling there than is typical, we have higher water handling costs. With the Pembina disposition, we also had some land survey costs that we were required to update. To the benefit, actually, we had some lower power costs in the quarter, so that helped us out on that front. Overall, a decent operating cost level. Just talking about G&A for a second, G&A came in at CAD 1.61. Again, G&A is usually a little higher in the first quarter given all the benefits that are paid to the government, etc., which is early in the quarter.
As comparison last year, at this time, we were CAD 1.77. So G&A per boe did come down. When we translate this into overall net back, pretty flat. We were CAD 33 a boe compared to CAD 33.40 last year. This translated into funds flow from operations of CAD 100 million. That's up 19% over Q1 last year and 25% on a per-share basis given the NCIB activity that we had. As I mentioned, with the heavier capital expenditures in the quarter, we were negative free cash flow of about CAD 35 million, and we also did spend just under CAD 10 million on our NCIB. As a result, our debt did go up to about CAD 460 million from CAD 411 million at year-end.
A big part of that growth is also our build and negative working capital, which was up CAD 50 million, and that's a direct correlation to the higher capital spending that we have in the quarter. As a normal cadence of that, that will come down in the second quarter as our capital expenditures go lower. In terms of leverage ratios, that represents 1.1x . Again, as you can see in that chart on the right, our debt does drop significantly with the Pembina disposition and estimated to be CAD 255 million at the end of Q2. Next slide, please. Now I'd just like to spend a little bit of time on guidance that we have for the rest of the first half, which is really focused on Q2. That's the column I'll focus on on this slide.
You can also see on the right-hand side, we do have some heavy oil and light oil asset level characteristics broken out, as well as some sensitivities to prices and economic factors. Just to point that out, those prices and economic factors, the level is really dictated because they are just affecting May and June because April is already completed. Looking at the quarter, which is what is really relevant because this is post the disposition, as a reminder, it does include six days of the Pembina assets that we sold, so it is not quite a clean quarter, but fairly close. In terms of our production range, we are looking at 28,800-29,600. We are only looking at spending capital expenditures of CAD 37 million-CAD 42 million. Overall, first half capital expenditures will be down CAD 15 million-CAD 20 million from what we were originally forecasting.
No real change to decommissioning expenditures. Our net operating costs will be coming down in Q2. The Pembina assets that we sold had a relatively higher operating cost, so we will see that benefit start to happen in Q2. Our G&A does go up a little bit with the lower production base, but still a very solid level at CAD 2 a share. Looking at the CAD 60 WTI level, we expect FFO or funds flow from operations to be CAD 60 million or CAD 0.86 a share. We do expect to generate positive free cash flow in the quarter of CAD 16 million. As I have mentioned already, that takes our debt down to CAD 255 million at quarter end, or about a 1.1x debt to funds flow from operations annualized for Q2. Importantly, this does not include our value of InPlay shares, which we have 9.1 million shares.
Current valuation is about CAD 60 million, so that is not included in that number. Next slide, please. Just a little bit on the capital program before I turn it over to Jay for some details. As I mentioned, we have reduced the number of wells that we will be drilling. The well that you see on here, the exploration appraisal wells, those were drilled in Q1, so those were already done. The light oil asset wells in Pembina, those were drilled in Q1 as well. They were also included in our statement of adjustment, so in effect, InPlay paid for those through the disposition process. Really the changes up in Peace River and the Blues ky Clearwater area where we reduced the number of wells to be drilled by eight. As Gary mentioned, we will be doing the waterflood pilot program.
Overall, you can see now that we will be drilling 30 wells instead of the original 38. With that, I'll turn it over to Jay McGilvary.
Yeah, thank you very much, Peter. As we move on to slide 12, it represents an overview of our Peace River asset. The first thing I notice when I look at a map like this is that it can really fail to portray the size of the region. The map you look at on this slide is nearly 70 mi across, or for context, more than the distance of Calgary to Canmore. As a result, there are massive parts of this area that have yet to be explored. Following the consolidation of our ownership in Peace River in late 2021, Obsidian, after a thorough technical review of the established Blues ky play and the emerging Clearwater play, concluded that our Peace River asset contained a significant amount of unrealized value.
The asset had previously been developed with a focus on future secondary recovery, and as a result, it had been over a decade since a meaningful round of exploration had taken place in the area. Since that time, we have not been alone in this conclusion, and competitor activity has continued to increase. However, the foundational land position and our decision to move early have both been a definitive advantage for Obsidian. Our land position is now approximately 700 sq mi, and we are working diligently to develop the value of this vast resource. That journey is best portrayed on slide 13. The drastic increase in our land position is the most obvious overall change in the asset.
We have taken an aggressive position on acquiring prospective land in the area, supported not just by our exploration program, but importantly, by the 15-year plus land tenure for the Peace River oil sands that allows us to retain this value for decades to come. Not easily seen in the tables are change in infrastructure and egress. We now own or have a significant working interest in the key gas plants and oil batteries in the area. This is a key strategic position given the gas conservation requirements for the area and necessary access to sales points. Our exploration and development programs have led to significant reserve additions in year-end 2024, from approximately 27.5 locations in 2021 to 162 P locations. We have developed a Clearwater formation from one test to over 4,000 boe per day and 50% of our development program in the region.
We have not rested. Our land position continues to grow, this time through farming opportunities as part of our 2025 development program that we will discuss later. Our exploration program has had meaningful results that will lead to future drilling and reserve adds. We will discuss that program in more detail on slide [audio distortion]. A key challenge with Peace River exploration is seasonal access. The Peace River oil field starts in the west on a flat agricultural belt and stretches over 70 mi eastward across the flat forest of jack pine and black spruce. The region makes for easy and inexpensive winter exploration access, but is limited only to the coldest months of the year. We have to plan our programs with these limitations in mind, starting with any exploration you want to accomplish, then followed by development on all season areas of the field later in the quarter.
As a result, our five drilling rig programs started in Q1 focused on testing and delineating our extensive land base. In total, we drilled seven exploration wells, all of which encountered good reservoir and produce hydrocarbons from often limited production tests while access allowed. In total, five of these wells produced at or exhibited cleanup profiles we consider very promising. This statement by itself does not provide the full story, however. Let us take a closer look at two key areas of success. First, in North Nampa, where we drilled our second successful Clearwater well test in Q1. Our Northern Nampa land block is 50 contiguous sq mi of land and prior to 2024 did not have a single horizontal production test. We drilled the first well of our 2024 exploration programs with an IP30 of 170 boe per day and 16 API oil, very light regionally for the area.
We drilled the second delineation well in Q1 of this year. The same story holds true for South Harmon Valley South exploration test. This winter, we drilled two exploration wells, including one vertical strat with stock on the southward trend of our established Harmon Valley South asset. Obsidian owns over 55 contiguous sections of land in the area on the same trend as this established field. Step back and consider this for a moment. This is a region that by last measure of the province has 135 billion barrels of oil in place, and until this winter, no one has done a production test on the southern end of one of the most productive areas of the field. Why? The reason actually is not particularly complicated.
When you drive to the Harmon South Valley South field, the main field is on the left-hand side of the road, and no one has built the road to the right yet. These two wells drilled in South HVS both encountered over 15 meters of oil pay in high-quality reservoir. We drilled 11 legs on the 15-15 well and cut the 10-27 well short at eight legs, seven horizontal in a race against weather so we could start production. That takes us to our exploration results on slide 15. Let's continue that story on South HVS. We turned both wells on and produced for as long as possible while frozen conditions allowed. For 15-15, that was 41 days, and for 10-27, that was 31 days. While that may seem like a lot, you have to contextualize how heavy oil wells clean up.
During the drilling process, you are continually losing fluid, mostly water to the reservoir. Generally speaking, the more porous and permeable the reservoir, the more water you lose while you're drilling. When you start producing that well, the first thing you must produce is the fluid you put there. The water is lighter and more mobile than the viscous heavy oil, and it comes out first. You have to pull down on the reservoir through pumping and create a pressure delta between the well and the reservoir. Heavy oil doesn't want to move on its own, and you have to create the conditions for that to occur. All of this takes time. We had more time on 15 - 15 than 10 - 27, and that shows in the published production rates.
15-15 reached a promising rate of 151 boe per day at 83% water cut before being shut in, compared to 10-27, which had a peak rate of 69 boe per day and a 95% water cut. This well had just started cleaning up prior to having to be shut in due to access. At these fluid rates, each 1% improvement in water cut equates to a nearly 14 barrel of oil per chain oil production change. Now factor in that this was an egg-leg well. The first leg was a vertical whipstock to test and find the formation, and the remaining seven were horizontal production legs. So it is only 64% of the normal open hole of a typical Blues ky well.
Finally, take the tracer results from that well, where we saw only two of the seven horizontal legs definitively producing oil at the last test prior to shutting. While a peak rate of 69 boe per day may not sound like a headline, the story and potential behind the well is far more exciting. The same holds true for our Clearwater results in Nampa highlighted on the page. We have now tested three distinct sands, all of which are some of the best oil quality in the region at close to or well above economic rates. Our North Nampa field has two wells, the first, the aforementioned 170 barrel oil per day, and the most recent with an IP30 of 128 barrels of oil, also at 16 EPI. Now take those results and step back out to an area as a whole where we started.
We have now drilled four very promising wells in the Clearwater Blues ky on nearly three townships of land that have never been previously tested with a horizontal multilateral. That is why we are leaning into exploration in this area. We then followed up sequentially by balancing this approach with development drilling later in the quarter. In total, we drilled 19 development wells, the results of which are just starting to approach significant production days. We drilled five wells in North HVS, offsetting some of the best wells we drilled last year. We are extremely pleased with the early production results from all five wells, the longest producing of which is on 13 of 18. While we prefer IP30s, unfortunately, we are making releases today, and it has an IP16 of 424 boe per day.
We see even more wells to drill in the area in the second half of the year when conditions are appropriate. We also drilled five earning wells in the Blue Sky as part of our development program, which further increased our land position in areas we consider development ready. The first IP30s on the 16 and 9 and 414 pads at 138 boe per day and 259 boe per day gross validate this approach. Similarly, our Clearwater program, our first IPs of 229 and 222 boe per day from the 423 pad are very strong. These wells were brought on production early on the pad through SIMOPS while drilling operations were still underway. We have five more wells in the early stages of production offsetting these two wells.
While most of our production development program is still in the early days of production, we are definitely looking forward to our next update with additional results to report. Finally, of note, and Gary touched on this, is our first integrated waterflood pilot in the Clearwater in Dawson. The pilot is designed to mimic the patterns of other successful waterfloods in the formation in other fields. It will be the first of its kind in Peace River, and as Gary went into detail, we are drilling the first injection well as we speak. Finally, not to be forgotten, our light oil assets remain three of the top quality light oil assets in our portfolio. The busiest of these in the first quarter was our PC11 non-operated asset in Northwest Pembina. This is a jewel for the area and was not part of the Pembina disposition.
It is an underdeveloped asset in the core area of the Pembina oil field. Obsidian retained our 44% working interest and saw five wells drilled in the first half of the year by our partners. Additionally, while the disposition of Pembina assets was beneficial on many metrics, one key attribute Gary spoke to is that it consolidated our working interest ownership on the east side of Willesden Green in Willesden Green Cardium Unit # 2. Obsidian has not developed this portion of the field primarily due to the previous lower working interest. Coincidentally, this portion of the Cardium field underlies the emerging Belly River play in an area where Obsidian has had considerable land base and drilling success on our first well. We have now designed a revised development plan in this area of the field that efficiently allows for shared pads and facilities between these two plays.
Finally, we'll always maintain a drill-ready inventory in our Viking play for opportunities when conditions favor potential light oil investment. Finally, my last slide, number 17, before I hand the presentation back to Peter, I will note that our Willesden Green asset always maintains a strong drill-ready inventory of gas-weighted optionality. Gas locations in both the Mannville formation and Cardium are executable should the macro environment dictate. This, combined with the emergence of the Belly River play, where our first well showed continual production improvement, as highlighted here on the slide, allows us to toggle our portfolio to light oil or gas as required. The consistent ability to invest in these assets is best highlighted by that historical production graph on this page. With that, I thank you for the time, and I'll turn it back over.
Thanks, Jay.
I'll turn your attention to page eight where I'll quickly walk you through our reserves and our pro forma NAV value. Looking at the lower left-hand corner, you can see our pro forma reserves. That's pro forma for the disposition of our Pembina asset, which occurred in April. I think the overarching takeaway is that even at a CAD 60 WTI assumption, we continue to trade below our PDP value. Turning your attention to the right-hand corner, lower right-hand corner of the slide, you'll see the growth in reserves, and that is as of year-end 2024, so it does encompass the Pembina asset. Looking at the upper right-hand corner, it's basically our pro forma net asset value per share. That does include the market value of our InPlay shares, which is approximately CAD 60 million as of last night's close versus our current share price.
You can see the discount that it trades to in various price scenarios as well as across a PDP, 1P, and 2P basis. With that, I'll turn your attention to the final slide on page 19, which is why I invest in Obsidian Energy. There are a number of reasons for that. First, we have a strategy directed at unlocking the potential for both our heavy and light oil asset. The overarching goal is to basically drive production and funds flow per share growth while continuing to return capital via share buybacks. We have a low-decline asset base that is oil and liquids weighted with significant underlying reserve value. We trade at a significant discount to our peers across a variety of metrics.
We have been very active via our NCIB program, having effectively purchased and canceled approximately 16% of the total shares outstanding since we commenced the NCIB program approximately two years ago. We also have significant tax pools that put us in a position where we will not be a cash taxpayer for approximately 10 years at CAD 70 WTI. Obviously, it will be longer than that at these prices. Lastly, we are dedicated to making a material and positive difference to all of our stakeholders and communities where we live and operate. With that, we will pause and open it up for Q&A.
Thank you very much. Just to remind everybody who is listening in, if you have a question to submit to the management team, please put it in through the webcast portal, and we will do our best to answer all the questions in the time allocated.
All right. First question right now is around Peace River and Peace River program. And one question that a shareholder would like to know for Jay probably is, what is a Waffle well? How do they differ from the usual multilateral wells, and what's the theory behind why they appear to work better?
Yeah. Thank you, Susan. So we have drilled our fifth Waffle well as part of this most recent program. I would say that the name kind of says it all. It's not particularly clever. It's a series of conventional horizontal legs, still 11 as for our Blues ky, where we then drill some subsequent legs that come across on the same well perpendicular to the primary producing legs, essentially making a Waffle pattern if you were to view it aerially from above. There are some complicated pressure drawdown reasons why we think this is potentially successful.
The simplistic reason I used to explain this is simply imagine trying to exit downtown in a traffic jam, and you only have one direction of flow. A Waffle well allows for hydrocarbons and pressure to move multiple directions in our reservoir before they reach the pump, as opposed to having a single and potentially blockaded or limited path of flow. We are basically giving more avenues for the hydrocarbons to produce. It results in slightly more open hole conditions, and thus far, we have been pleased [audio distortion] .
Thank you very much, Jay. One other question here is around actually some February well results that are updated at that time. Said we noted several wells in Peace River that were underperforming.
Could you provide some more information about it in terms of what operational geological adjustments have you done to improve results and have the wells started performing?
Jay, you can take that.
No, I appreciate that. Thanks, Steve. We released a couple of results in February 2025 that were focused on the [Cadotte] portion of our field. For context, that is the westernmost extent of our field that we are testing, the flank edges of that portion of the field. In short, the wells encountered higher viscosity oil than we expected. While there are hydrocarbons in the well, its willingness to flow preferentially was challenged. As a result, we saw higher than expected gas rates on one and [audio distortion] .
We still have mitigation strategies we may employ to try to salvage that to either produce the gas or subsequently dispose of the water on site and continue to produce the wells at a slightly higher water cut than expected. As of currently, the wells are shut in while we approach a strategy to manage those issues.
Great. Thank you very much. Got several questions that surround the capital allocation post the Pembina sale related to the InPlay shares. With proceeds from this IPO, how does Obsidian balance debt reduction, share buybacks, and reinvestment in Peace River delineation? Are there plans to accelerate shareholder returns now that the portfolio is streamlined? What is the overall plan with the IPO shares?
Yeah, I'll take that. I mean, I think we've been fairly prescriptive in that post-sale, the cash proceeds from that transaction went to pay down debt.
We were extremely active in the buyback during the month of April and purchased over 2 million shares, which is approximately 3% of the shares outstanding during the month of April alone. Candidly, it was in the last three or so weeks. We have updated our capital plan such that we have cut some capital out from the first half plan in response to market conditions and have also signaled our intent to directionally keep our production flat to the extent that prices were to kind of hover around these levels. I think the overarching takeaway should be that that is a financially superior decision. We have an opportunity to buy our shares at a material discount. We do not forego the opportunity to grow our production when we so choose to. I have read some of the research, and candidly, I have been surprised that it has been positioned as if it is a negative.
There's no reason to force production growth in a CAD 60 world, even more so when you can buy your shares back at material discounts to intrinsic value. Candidly, if better economics than primary development economics kind of sit today. I think that's how we think about it. In regards to our InPlay shares, we're kind of very pleased with the transaction. We've been on record that the Cardium, specifically kind of the Pembina portion of the field, was in need of consolidation. We feel that we effectuated a transaction that both offered fair value to Obsidian shareholders, but also put those assets at the hand of a management team that we think will do quite well with them. I think it's fair to say that we're not long-term shareholders of InPlay, but at the same time, we see a significant amount of upside from the current trading levels.
We just have to see how things evolve over the next couple of months as it relates to what our ultimate strategy will be.
Thank you, Steve. Related to that and the Pembina transaction is the question about if there are any plans to monetize additional non-core assets or Peace River assets or Viking to fund buybacks, or are we looking to bid on any other companies out there?
Yeah, we're not looking to sell any additional assets. We're very comfortable with the portfolio today and, to take it a step further, we just do not need to. We have it down effectively to two core areas. The Viking can offer short-cycle kind of light oil drilling opportunities that allow you to quickly respond to prices where it is conducive to do so.
In regards to looking at other M&A opportunities, I think it's fair to say that it's incumbent upon us to look at everything that may become available in our area. It doesn't necessarily mean that that's something that we're keen to do. I mean, some of it is for benchmarking purposes. Some of it is because there's sometimes values where it might be interesting. But right here, right now, we're quite comfortable allocating capital towards share buybacks, and so it would be a very high bar.
Thank you. A quick question on how we get our product to market. Do we deliver it via oil and gas, Trans Mountain, or via pipeline?
Yeah, can you repeat that?
Sure, yeah. Yeah.
The short answer is ultimately, our product gets there via pipelines. The light oil business, quite a bit simple. The vast majority of production is tied into pipeline.
At Peace River, just given the nature of the heavy oil and the winter conditions, generally speaking, a significant portion, not all of it, but a significant portion is trucked to dedicated terminals which are pipeline connected and ultimately end up in Edmonton.
Great. Thank you, Gary. We have several questions around basically our plans in relation to oil prices and production, including what is our maintenance capital or what is our capital to hold production flat at 29,000 barrels a day? If oil prices further stagnate, we've stated that we would likely stick to a maintenance program. How do you think about capital in that scenario? How would it play out into 2026? What WTI price would you need to grow production again to that 35,000-40,000 range?
Yeah. Look, there's a number of questions kind of embedded within that. I'll take them.
If I forget, just remind me. Look, I think the way to think about it is we stated that at these prices, we were quite content to stay at 29,000 boe a day. We are not going to answer as to kind of what the maintenance capital is to hold that production flat. It is really kind of a—there is a dynamic answer. I think it is somewhat contingent on, well, what kind of program do you want to drill? Where are your service costs? I think it is fair to say that industry is going to be having some spirited discussions with their service cost providers if we are in a CAD 60 world or potentially even below that. I think it is fair to say there is a lot of fluidity to that. We have outlined that we will release a second-half budget at the end of June.
In regard to kind of if prices were to stagnate, I mean, we're assuming prices in the short term will stagnate. By extension, what we've chosen is a path that does grow production. It grows production per share, and it grows FFO per share. I think it's a mistake to say that we're not growing. The ultimate end goal of a growth program is to have it manifest into per share growth. It makes no sense if you grow your production profile, but you're issuing a bunch of shares in that process, and it's ultimately dilutive. We're quite content at 29,000 boe. We have the balance sheet strength to see that through, and we'll react to market conditions as they evolve.
Thank you, Steve. Quick question related to our news release today.
Overall, we stated that we experienced constructive results, and Jay spoke to this on five of the seven pads. Just wondering which pads did not show constructive results or if you have any additional insight to provide to shareholders.
Sure. The two pads that we did not mention, one of which was the most southeasterly test we have ever done in the field in one of our Clearwater wells. It has been producing steadily at a sub-economic rate of about 24 barrels of oil per day flat. While we are interested in that, the inflow seems to be related to higher viscosity and as such, we are evaluating but do not see that as a constructive economic rate at this time. The other is a Blues ky pad up in Nampa, basically on where it would be a road into our Clearwater results.
It was showing hydrocarbons and cleaning up, but we did not get a constructive test out there to make anything from a conclusionary point of view on that. That will be pending the next winter analysis.
Thank you. Question regarding somewhat to Peace River, but overall is what is the current break-even oil price for Peace River delineation drilling? If WTI remains below $60 a barrel WTI, U.S., would Obsidian halt exploration to focus on shareholder return? What is the price where you stop drilling?
Yeah, I mean, I think the way to think about it is we have already outlined that the first part of our capital program this year was more skewed towards exploration drilling due to the fact that we had winter access.
I think it is a fair assumption that for the balance of the year, we are going to be much more focused on drilling in areas where kind of they are more development wells. I do not think you will see an emphasis on exploration or delineation wells in any form.
Thank you. Do you have an approximate budget for share buybacks in May and June?
I am not going to answer that question. It would be stupid of us to answer that question. I mean.
Thank you. Another question is, at what level, when you get share count down to the low CAD 50 million range, would you consider a dividend? And what is your process or thinking for ongoing shareholder returns?
Yeah, I think what we would say is I do not know that that question should be indexed to a share count range.
I think it's fair to say that it's a function of the strategy. We have been returning capital aggressively to our shareholders. It's been in the form of share buybacks. We think that's a much kind of superior option at this juncture. There could be a time when it may make sense to put a dividend in place, and we'll evaluate that at the appropriate time and at the appropriate price that potentially makes a dividend truly sustainable.
Thank you very much. This was answered in today's news release, but the question was asked was, after the Cardium sale, how much debt has been repaid, and what's the current net debt-to-fund flow ratio?
Go ahead.
We've already outlined that kind of the debt-to-fund flow ratio is 1.1x that using 2Q annualized. We think it's a conservative approach. A lot of our companies or peers use EBITDA.
EBITDA would be lower than that on an EBITDA basis. It also does not attribute any value to our InPlay share position. We think it is a fairly conservative read of kind of where our leverage is today.
Thank you very much.
Just to add, I think an important point to add is with our liquidity that we have. When you look at our debt stack, we still have the CAD 112 million of bonds outstanding. We have our syndicated credit facility at CAD 235 million. Again, post the disposition, we only had CAD 30 million drawn, so CAD 200 million of liquidity sitting on there. I think that is an important thing to keep in mind in this environment.
Thank you. Question about our asset retirement obligation. They would like some clarity that with the ARO that was part of the Pembina transaction, that is now responsible to [audio distortion] .
Does Obsidian have any responsibility for the ARO expense for 2025 for these assets?
Sure. Cliff, do you want to answer that?
Yeah, I'm happy to. The situation with the ARO that's part of the transaction is that it becomes the responsibility of the owner of the asset once it transfers over to them. It is InPlay's responsibility at this point. To be more specific on the answer, the AER sets the ARO minimum spend obligations in the prior year, which includes the assets that are owned by the licensee at that time. Obsidian retains responsibility for the spend target for 2025 but has the discretion to deploy that as we see fit.
Thank you.
Question, if the company can provide any more detail on what plans do you have to convert winter road access to all-year road access in Nampa and North Dawson based on the results to date?
Yeah, I think it is fair to say that is something that we are evaluating and something that we are considering real time. We will have more to say about that when we put out our second-half budget.
Thank you. There are a couple of questions around our future strategy and plans. As per the news release today, we have stated that we are not going to be reissuing a three-year growth plan at this time. Is there any plans for the future to do so, or has this changed the new look of the company, and what are you doing for a revised strategy?
Yeah, the strategy has not changed, which is to maximize the shareholder value.
You can do that a number of different ways. What we've said is in response to prices, it does not make sense to burn inventory at CAD 60 a barrel or sub-CAD 60 a barrel, even more so when you can buy your shares back at more attractive metrics. That is not a function; there is no strategy shift. We are pulling the three-year plan on the basis that we sold the Pembina asset, and that was approximately 11,000 boe out of what was a 50,000 boe a day target. We will lay out our second-half budget at the end of June, and we will be thoughtful about kind of what we say about 2026 and beyond when we feel we are in a position to do so.
Thank you, Steve. Related to that is, what specific actions are you taking to increase shareholder value in the current environment?
What is the new shareholder proposition?
Yeah, I mean, look, I think the company's taken a number of actions, which is a combination of delineating its Peace River asset base, selling an asset in the way of Pembina at what we felt was a very fair value, and that significantly streamlined the company while also strengthening the balance sheet. In a higher price environment, we would have recycled that capital into kind of new production, and we've been buying back our share. I think to think about it in the way of a share, a value proposition, it's just we're going to continue to grow the intrinsic value of the business. You either believe that you've got a management team and board that will ultimately harvest value, or you don't. If you don't, you can sell your stock, and there's an active buyback program to buy it.
I think I could not be more direct than that.
Thank you very much, Steve. I believe we have answered this, but we have another question about what we are going to do with the IPO shares.
That has already been answered.
Thank you. One question around why we are reducing our drilling, and is it an impact of the assets or more of the commodity prices?
It is a combination, as we have outlined, it is a combination of the commodity prices, not wanting to burn our inventory in this commodity environment, and the opportunity to buy back shares at a material discount to intrinsic value.
Thank you. Just a question about the Peace River waterflood. I know there is some information on the news release today, but can you provide a little bit more information on the status and in terms of your fuller plans for the Clearwater?
Sure.
Gary touched on where we're at from a status point of view, but we are drilling our first waterflood pilot. We call it integrated in that we're drilling the injectors and producers at the same time down in Dawson. We're currently drilling the first of these single-leg injectors. The three producers have been drilled. Two of them are currently on production and cleaning up, and we look forward to starting water injection down there in the near future.
Great. Thank you very much. Just a reminder to people on the webcast that if you have a question, please do send it in. At that point, otherwise, we are ready to close up the call.
Thank you, Susan. I want to thank everyone for their interest in the company. Thank you for the questions, and we look forward to talking to you in the near future.
Have a good afternoon.
This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.