Pembina Pipeline Corporation (TSX:PPL)
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Apr 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EST
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Investor Day 2024

May 16, 2024

Scott Burrows
President and CEO, Pembina Pipeline Corporation

Thanks, Dan, and thanks to everyone who is here with us today in the room and to those on the phone. You know, we're happy to be here today to share in greater detail our thoughts on the industry, our business, and our path forward from here. We're proud of what we've built. We're excited and optimistic for the future. We truly believe it is an exciting time in the Canadian energy industry, and that Pembina is at the heart of that industry. Today, you will hear from various members of our executive team. I will start with an overview of Pembina's business and our industry. You will hear from us why we believe Pembina occupies a unique and valuable place at the center of the Canadian industry. Chris will cover Pembina's strategy and how we've positioned ourselves for long-term success.

Jaret will provide an overview of Pembina's pipelines and facilities divisions, highlighting, in particular, the ongoing developments in the WCSB, including three transformational catalysts and how Pembina is uniquely positioned to benefit on a wave of growth. Chris will provide an overview of our marketing business, which helps augment our core business. Stu will cover new ventures, including our proposed Cedar LNG project, and Cam will wrap things up with an update on our financial outlook and how we intend to execute our strategy with the same discipline that has made us so successful to date. But first, it has been five years since we've done an Investor Day, and a lot has changed, and yet a lot hasn't. So we thought it was worthwhile to step back and recognize how Pembina and the industry have transformed over the past five years and recap some of the many achievements.

I'm going to start with a couple of stats on how we've grown the business to set the stage. We've seen our conventional volumes, which we generally see as a proxy for basin growth, have grown, on the whole, over 17%. We've placed CAD 2.4 billion of projects into service and have an additional CAD 1.2 billion of projects underway, with another CAD 4 billion under development. We've executed three major transactions, including the acquisition of Kinder Morgan Canada, the creation of Pembina Gas Services, and the recent acquisition and additional interests of Alliance and Aux Sable, all done accretively and positions us to continue to capture incremental growth. The result of our major project execution and strategic M&A has been that Pembina has continued to expand its footprint and add to the Pembina story. We've gotten better, not just bigger.

We've added 0.02 MMbpd of new LPG export capacity off the West Coast, with our propane sold into Asia. We continue to expand our Peace Pipeline, adding 0.46 MMbpd of upstream debottlenecking at pinch points across the system and creating full segregation across all four products. We've expanded our gas processing capacity by roughly a BCF per day, including increasing our exposure to Northeast B.C., and we've added 17 million barrels of storage. Finally, the recent Alliance and Aux Sable acquisition, we grew our natural gas export to the Midwest by 850 million cubic feet a day and our fractionation capacity by 0.084 MMbpd . That growing footprint has allowed Pembina to deliver strong financial performance, including roughly 50% increase in EBITDA and a 30% increase in EBITDA per share.

We've also delivered for our shareholders, including CAD 7.2 billion of dividends and total shareholder return of 70% from 2019 to today. The midstream industry has changed along with us. It's showing an evolving maturity, where balance sheet discipline is in focus with a preference for lower leverage, and investors want to see self-funded, free cash flow positive business models. There's a heightened focus on dividend protection and payout ratio preservation and an increased focus and scrutiny on financial guardrail strength and return of capital. While we feel like Pembina was an early adopter of the financial discipline we see across the sector, these changes still influence how Pembina thinks about strategy, new projects, funding in the balance sheet, and capital allocation. Since 2019, we have lowered our debt to EBITDA from 4x to 3.4x-3.6x.

We've gone from free cash flow negative to free cash flow positive, and we've grown the dividend, all while having a modest reduction in our payout ratio and returning over CAD 9 billion to our shareholders. The E&P industry has changed as well over the last 5 years and grown stronger. More disciplined capital allocation means more predictable and stable growth and therefore infrastructure needs. Reduced leverage and credit quality has improved as well across the sector. We have seen a wave of consolidation meant by smaller players, by larger ones, and more capable and better to execute growth. We've seen M&A lead directly to accelerated drilling and higher volumes from the acquirers. A key focus over the past year has been to strengthen and deepen our relationship with customers, with a renewed focus on customer communication and service, which has led to strong re-contracting efforts.

The new infrastructure is creating new export opportunities, alleviating what to date has been the biggest constraint on growth in the Canadian energy industry. While the current gas market is challenged, well economics continue to be driven by high-margin liquid pay, plays with quick payouts. We believe we have the right assets in the right areas to serve our customers, which Jaret's going to talk about in a little while. Since 2019, we have progressed our ESG strategy as well. On the E, decarbonization strategies rose to the forefront. We set our own target for GHG intensity reduction, and the broader transition to a lower carbon economy has impacted how Pembina thinks about its long-term strategy. We have made progress with a 7% reduction in our intensity metrics.

This is something that Chris is going to talk about a little bit more in detail a little later on. On the S, we rolled out multiple targets to enhance equity, diversity, and inclusion across the organization and at the board level. We are meeting or exceeding most of our targets, with still some work to do with our general workforce. We also have strong indigenous relationships, highlighted by our close partnership with the Haisla at Cedar LNG. And on the G, in addition to Canada's overall strength in corporate governance, Pembina continues to be recognized with strong third-party ESG ratings. Switching now to the macro, which we spend a lot of time thinking about, and while 2020 - 2021 showed a decline in global energy demand for obvious reasons, the overall trend has been positive and one of growth.

That growth in all products, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil, is expected to moderate slightly, but we believe in, and many forecasts show, continued growth through 2030. Third-party experts show global natural gas demand to grow by 34 BCF a day, natural gas liquids by 9 MMbpd , and crude by 11 MMbpd . The same growth we have seen and expect to see globally, we have also seen in North America as well. In particular, growing global demand and North American exports have driven growth across the WCSB. Since 2010, Canadian production has grown 20% in natural gas. Natural gas liquids are up approximately 45%, crude has increased by 70%, and condensate by over 100%.

This growth is forecasted to continue to grow through the end of the decade, and we have confidence in these forecasts, given the developments we will discuss shortly, the discussions with our customers, and recent industry activity. You will hear a lot today about the changes in the Canadian energy industry and how Pembina is poised to benefit from the resulting growth. Important to put the Canadian energy industry in context of the global energy industry. Canada is not an island. What we are doing in Canada is a direct result of growing global demand. While the dynamics of global energy may be in flux, especially in light of efforts to reduce emissions associated with our energy, it is undeniable that global energy demand is rising, and that includes growing demand for oil and gas.

While North Americans' oil and gas demand may have flattened, it is not declining yet, and Asian demand, along with demand elsewhere, continues to rise. Amidst that backdrop, Canada has an important role to play. We are a reliable and responsible producer, we have large and cost-competitive resource base that is world-class in every aspect, and we are geographically advantaged with the best access to the U.S. and close proximity and a shipping advantage compared to other alternatives to supply growing Asian markets. We believe we have, as we have for some time, that the time is now for Canadian energy. As I just mentioned, growing global demand for energy and petrochemicals is driving infrastructure opportunities in Western Canada that should unlock further growth in the WCSB.

Later, Jaret will dive deep into each one of these, but the four catalysts we see transforming Canadian energy over the next few years include: the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion with 0.59 MMbpd , which supports oil sands growth and therefore condensate demand for diluent. West Coast LNG with 2.8 BCF a day of natural gas demand from LNG Phase I, Cedar, and Woodfibre . And we know beyond that, there's the potential for another 2.1 BCF a day for LNG Phase II and other proposed projects. And of course, with incremental LNG, comes a significant amount of natural gas liquids that comes along with that gas production. We see LPG exports increasing with various projects on the horizon, which could add, add incremental demand pull, and a petrochemical build-out continues in Alberta.

We have the Dow Path2Zero cracker will drive new ethane demand, plus associated propane plus production, and recent third-party PDHPP developments drove 0.02 MMbpd of incremental propane demand. Pembina is poised to benefit from this growth, given our extensive footprint, including a leading network of export, import, and gathering pipeline systems with total capacity of 3 MMbpd . Our conventional system transports crude oil, condensate, C2 plus and C3 plus. Our transmission systems import condensate and ethane, and exports natural gas, and our oil sands gathers and stores heavy oil and synthetic oil. In addition to our pipeline network, Pembina has extensive gas processing, fractionation, and storage facilities. Pembina Gas Infrastructure, the largest third-party gas processor in Western Canada, combined with our Pembina Straddles, processes over 6.3 BCF per day of gas.

Our Redwater Fractionation Complex is the largest fractionation complex in Canada and continues to grow. Aux Sable is a valuable extraction of fractionation in the Midwest market, and our Prince Rupert Terminal is our LPG export facility that allows us to gain higher value for our propane out of that terminal. Our significant asset footprint is not only made up of a diversity of assets across the Montney, Deep Basin, and Duvernay, but it also positions us across all six commodities today. Natural gas business includes gathering and processing, as well as export to higher value U.S. markets. And through our proposed Cedar LNG project, we hope to add global natural gas exports to this service offering as well.

On natural gas liquids, our ethane business supplies resilient Alberta polyethylene plants with a diversified feedstock, and our propane and butane business connects an oversupplied WCSB to higher priced North America and Asia markets. Our condensate business supplies resilient oil sands demand in a market with favorable pricing dynamics through advantaged assets. Our crude business connects long-life reserves to cost-competitive value chains that insulate the WCSB production from demand destruction as long as Canadian policy remains competitive with the U.S. Pembina really is at the center of the energy industry in Canada. We believe our service offering is unique. Our integrated value chain provides a full suite of midstream and transportation services across all commodity, which means Pembina is best positioned to benefit from the growth we are seeing and expect to continue to see in the WCSB. This means you don't have to pick a commodity.

Pembina should benefit in any case, given our exposure across all commodities. We are the only Canadian midstream company that can say that, and it's something that we are quite proud of. And so what does it all mean? In our view, Pembina offers an unmatched business model and a unique blend of the attributes that make us a core energy holdings for any portfolio. We have a full value chain across all commodities. As I just touched on, we believe Pembina's service offering is unmatched across all six commodities. We have visible growth. Pembina's assets and contracts position us to benefit from the transformational catalysts in the WCSB you're going to hear about today. We have financial discipline. We expect to grow our fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share by 4%-6% on a compound annual growth rate, all within our financial guardrails.

We have a predictable cash flow stream, predominantly backstopped by long-term contracts underpinning fee-based, take-or-pay cash flows with some commodity-exposed upside. We have a long track record of project execution and delivering projects on time and on budget, and we believe that we're positioned for the future, building off of our seven-year history and exploring low-cost optionality for new energy extensions. So with that, I'm pleased to turn it over to Chris, who's going to talk a little bit about our strategy going forward.

Chris Scherman
SVP of Marketing and Strategy, Pembina Pipeline Corporation

Put that there. Good morning. All right. As Dan mentioned, my name's Chris Scherman. I'm Senior Vice President of Marketing and Strategy at Pembina. I'm excited this morning to have the opportunity to talk a little bit about our strategy. You know, we went public with our strategy a little over a year ago, I think early 2023, late 2022, but we haven't really had the opportunity to expand on that strategy. And so the objective today is to hopefully talk a little bit about what our strategy is, how we develop that strategy, how we continue to evolve that strategy, and maybe shed some light on some of the things you can expect from us as a result of that strategy.

Undoubtedly, we'll based on conversations last night and this morning, we'll fall short of some expectations that we share the exact capital and exactly how this is gonna play out for the next 10 years. But hopefully, you at least get an indication of where we might go and how we might do it. So a few minutes ago, Scott showed a forecast of global energy demand through 2030. And you know, as we look out to the next six years, I think we've got a relatively high degree of confidence in how that market might play out, at least for business planning purposes. But we really are committed to developing, operating, developing, growing a business that's gonna be successful till 2030, thrive to 2030, but also beyond.

And when we think about beyond 2030, you know, it really starts to become a big question as to how the market's gonna are gonna unfold, post-2030. And you can, you can see on the screen, there's a wide array of prognosticators and, and organizations and, and entities that will provide a perspective, and there is a wide array of perspectives out there. And, and frankly, we have no idea how it's gonna play out. So, so, what does that mean? Well, really what that means is when you're doing planning, when you're doing strategy work, you've got a challenge in front of you. You can't really determine how things are gonna unfold, post, post-2030.

We decided to address that challenge of long-term planning back in 2022, by beginning to do something we call, or others have called it as well, strategy-based or, sorry, scenario-based strategy planning. That scenario-based approach to strategy planning or strategy development, it's not a new concept. It's been implemented by others, and I think very successfully. For us, we see it as a powerful tool to address the type of challenges facing our business and our industry going forward. In traditional strategy planning, you design around a single scenario. If things play out as expected, it can be very successful. If you haven't got it right, if you don't have the precision or the understanding of the future you might need, it's not likely to be very successful.

So given that level of uncertainty for the industry we're in, for our business specifically, we decided to take a more robust approach to strategy planning, and we used scenario analysis to support our strategy development. The objective of that strategy work is really to attempt to be successful across a broad array of outcomes. So our scenario work and our strategy development is specific to our business. As we began this strategy work, and we continue the strategy work, one of the priorities is to, you know, in a very deep way, understand our customers and the markets we serve. As well, it's trying to get grounded in two key variables that are gonna impact the long-term success of our business: the pace of decarbonization and the resilience of the markets we serve.

So for each scenario, you know, we really assess the challenges and potential options that exist for our business in the future, and the objective in the work is to enhance our planning process and hopefully improve our capital allocation for the long term. So we talked about how we develop strategy, and then, you know, I think in order to understand our strategy and to shed a little light on the decisions we're making under that strategy, thought it was worth taking a couple of minutes to talk about a few of the factors and themes influencing our strategy. So Scott touched on a few of them. The first is that the global demand for oil and gas is growing, and we believe will be enduring.

You know, we see a divergence in global energy markets, going forward, you know, as the world continues to evolve the energy mix. However, we see drivers for global demand for oil and gas to continue. Population, economic growth, reduced energy poverty, digitalization seems to come up a lot these days. But at the end of the day, we believe oil and gas will be enduring because it's a very efficient source of energy, it's affordable and transportable, and it's very difficult to replace quickly. That brings us to the second theme, which is that the energy transition is driving a shift in the global energy mix. So we strongly believe oil and gas is going to endure. We strongly believe the businesses we have today are gonna continue to be successful, but that energy mix is changing.

With that change, the challenge for us becomes how quickly and in what form does that change take? Policy, innovation, investment pace are gonna all determine the pace or all determine how that unfolds. But at the end of the day, we're really trying to solve two problems. The first, providing the world with available and affordable energy so that it can thrive, and the second, reducing global energy emissions or, pardon me, global emissions. That brings us to the third theme. Scott touched on it, and it's pervasive through everything you're gonna see today, and that is that Canada's position to support growing global energy demand for both conventional oil and gas, and we believe for new energies as well. And so the WCSB is growing.

There's some catalysts we talked about, Scott touched on, and it's gonna be expanded on further, but there's catalysts in the basin that really represent a key moment for our business and a key moment for Canada to participate in long-term growing energy markets around the world. Finally, Pembina is differentiated and is uniquely advantaged. You're gonna hear it from me, and I think it's gonna be a theme as well that goes through today. We have a business that we love, and we think we're very well-positioned to exploit WCSB growth today. We think we're very well-positioned to access global markets going forward, and we think we have a role to play and a promising future when we talk about decarbonization and an evolving energy mix.

So a lot of the stuff I just touched on, and when we think about scenario planning, and we think about these themes, you know, it really, it really is about an uncertain future. And I think that's something we pay a lot of attention to. But at the end of the day, I wanted to highlight that the most important part of our strategy that we understand very well and isn't uncertain is that of our existing business. We've got great existing assets, we've got tremendous strengths, and our strategy at its core is really an extension of that proven performance. You know, our strategy is not about pivoting, and I'm gonna try to talk about that today. I'm gonna try to highlight that. It's not about revisiting our core business.

It's truly about leveraging the strengths and successes we have within our business today. So we have a track record of success, and, you know, over the last 70 years, I think we've had a really, a really exceptional track record, and that wasn't built by accident. That was built on the back of tremendous assets, that was built in partnership with great customers, exceptional project execution, and continued financial discipline. Those same advantages are what we're gonna continue to apply in our approach going forward. What is our strategy, and how will it create value? The products we process and transport, you know, today are instrumental in a thriving global population, and we take great pride in playing that role.

And so you can see, first of all, with our purpose, you've heard it before from us, and you're gonna continue to hear it from us 'cause it really underpins the entirety of our strategy. Our purpose is to deliver extraordinary energy solutions so the world can thrive. We've captured our strategy in four key priorities, moving from left to right: to drive strong returns from our core business, ensuring our success beyond 2030, which is what I just talked about, maximizing the value of our products and our customers' products, and benefiting all of our stakeholders along the way. As I take a little bit of a double click on each of those strategic priorities, we start with to be resilient. We will sustain, decarbonize, and enhance our business. I've said it already, I'll continue to say it: We love our core business.

You know, our core business remains a very important part of our strategy, and this, and this strategic priority is really about improving and bolstering the resilience of that core business. We're focused on making it better, and we're focused on making it more profitable. So when I think about sustain, what does that mean? It means continuous improvement. It means efficiency gains. It means cost savings. As well, it means aggressively pursuing incremental margin from within our business. You know, we really believe there is remaining intrinsic untapped value in our business, our core business today, and we're aggressively going after that. Third, it's about ensuring the stable, the stability and predictability of our cash flows through contracts. That's re-contracting, that's contract extensions, that's new contracts, and then finally, it's about continuing to deliver projects safely, on time, and on budget. Moving on to decarbonize.

You know, here we're talking about decarbonizing our core business. This will ultimately improve the cost competitiveness of our business, as well as differentiate our products and our services. We're trying to enhance our business. We see a tremendous runway that Jaret's gonna spend a great deal of time on today. We see a tremendous runway for growth within our conventional businesses and within our core business, and we've tried to highlight some of the recent accomplishments. I, I won't talk about every one, but Alliance Aux Sable transaction, RFS IV, 7% reduction in GHG intensity already. We're making progress against this strategic priority. Next, our second priority is to thrive. This is really about investing in the energy transition to improve the basins where we operate. To us, you know, this represents an opportunity to expand our portfolio.

It could include businesses that are associated with low-carbon commodities, low-carbon infrastructure, and carbon transport and storage. You know, I wanna highlight within this, within this strategic priority, there's a tremendous opportunity to support our existing customers, to leverage off our existing customer relationships, especially when we think about carbon transport and sequestration, for example, where we can increase the resilience of our customers' businesses, thus increasing the resilience of our business and potentially create a new business line along the way, and I think that's pretty exciting. What you can expect is that our our investments in energy transition will focus on opportunities where we have a right to win.

Stu's gonna talk more about this, this later, but at the end of the day, we're willing to, we're willing to be patient as we develop this component of our business, and we're really focused on developing relatively cheap opportunities and cheap options to participate as these markets develop. With patience, we see a path to profitably participating in energy transition. If we have the right to win, we don't see the need to make sacrifices, when it comes to returns or bus- or expectations. So a few of the recent accomplishments in this space, Alberta Carbon Grid's making great success. Our Low Carbon Complex, which is really about enabling the energy transition, similarly making great success. Our third strategic priority: to meet global demand. This is about maximizing the value and resilience of our products and our customers' products for the long term.

As Canadians, we're very familiar with the implications of isolated energy markets, and as we look further out into the future, we see a divergence between North American and global oil and gas markets, and that dynamic requires us to position ourselves so that our business can keep growing and continue to be resilient for the long term. We have line of sight to demand for conventional oil and gas in Asia, for example, as well as other growing global markets, and we strive to increase that connection to those markets. The thesis is relatively simple here. Accessing global markets increases our resilience and extends the value and durability of our business. In addition to global markets, we're seeking opportunities to transform our products to serve higher value and more resilient markets within Canada. It's not new for us.

This isn't a new piece of our strategy. We've been at this a long time. We've got our Prince Rupert Terminal. We've been focused on getting product off the West Coast for some time, and, and obviously, Stu's gonna spend some time talking about LNG and, and Cedar LNG, which I think is a shining example of this strategic priority. Our fourth and, and final strategic priority is to set ourselves apart. This is about recognizing that a highly engaged workforce, the ability to attract key talent, supporting thriving communities, highly profitable customers, and shareholders that receive industry-leading returns are all critical to our success. We've been a shareholder-focused organization for some time, and we recognize the value in that approach. We believe that differentiating ourselves across all groups is an important part of our success.

It has been to date, and it will continue to be going forward. What does that mean? A differentiated experience for each of our stakeholders can mean, among other things, we meaningfully contribute to the quality of life and happiness of our Pembina family. We have the capabilities we need to get the things done we aspire to do. We have mutually beneficial relationships with the communities where we operate. We have profitable customers who choose us and want our services, and we have shareholders that receive stable, industry-leading returns. We've got a plethora of recent accomplishments in this area that we're very proud of. You know, when we think about total shareholder return, we've got a really strong performance. When we think about community investment, improved employee engagement, we're making headway and continue to have success on this strategic priority.

So if we get that all right, what does it look like? Well, you know, I think in 2030, when we look back, if we've done things right, if we've done what we expected to do, we will have grown and strengthened our core business. We will have improved the basin where we operate, both through margin improvement, increased profitability for ourselves and our customers. We will have successfully executed a significant capital program on time and on budget. In addition, we will have decarbonized our business and achieved our 30 x 30 targets, and we will have built an enduring portfolio that connects our molecules to growing, resilient markets.

In addition, we will have entered businesses with low-carbon commodities that support growth and longevity for our portfolio, and we will have demonstrated top-quartile safety performance, exceeded employee experiences, experience benchmarks, and created long-term partnerships with Indigenous peoples and communities. Overall, we will have undergone significant growth, become more profitable, and significantly increased the resilience of our business for the long term. With that, I'm going to turn it over to Jaret to talk about our core business.

Jaret Sprott
COO, Pembina Pipeline Corporation

Good morning, everyone. Pleased to be here. My name's Jaret Sprott, Chief Operating Officer, here at Pembina. Chris talked a little bit about, you know, our journey to, you know, 2030, what are we gonna look like as an organization? Obviously, our core business is still gonna play a huge role into what we look like in 2030. But I'm gonna talk a little bit about what do we really need to focus on, on a day-to-day basis to ensure that we're able to do some of the things like enter into new energies, you know, focus on expanding our footprint onto West Coast. And it really comes down to— I'm gonna talk about the left-hand side, the resilient portfolio, and the differentiated stakeholder experience.

If you take a look over onto the right-hand side, you know, you will not have an enduring, resilient, sustained core business if you don't have a safe workforce, right? So ensuring that we have a highly diversified, talented, safe workforce every day is core to our business. You know, we need to ensure that we have best-in-class customer service. It's not lost on us that, you know, essentially, we're an infrastructure company, but we are in the customer service business. Every day, our customers rely on us to move their products from wellhead into various markets across North America and, you know, in the future, more into international markets, and they rely on us for safe, reliable operations every day. Also, we need to ensure that we have enduring Indigenous and community partnerships.

We recognize that our business is gonna be in someone's backyard, and we want to make sure that those communities are welcoming us to be a part of their community and play a role in their backyard. So if you can set yourself apart, and you can actually provide a differentiated stakeholder experience, we truly believe that allows you to, you know, transition over to the left-hand side and be extremely focused on driving value, like Chris talked about, in your core business. You know, we obviously want to focus every day on having a highly utilized, cost-effective business for our customers. We want to be a continued leader in project execution, which I'm gonna talk about a little bit more.

We have a tremendous track record on project execution over the last, you know, 20 years, and, you know, that gives us an extreme amount of confidence going forward to enter into new businesses, but also continue to deliver on the promises we've made to our current customers. Leveraging our footprint and reputation for sustained growth, we've seen a tremendous amount of growth with the egress constraints that we've had for the past, I'll call it, you know, 7 years -10 years. I'm gonna talk a lot about some of the major, you know, key milestone transitional things that are gonna happen in our basin, which not only are we gonna play a role in, but we're also gonna benefit substantially in our core business.

And then, obviously, our commitment to our decarbonization of our, of our core business for our customers, and the communities in which we operate. So we truly believe that if we can get these two outside pillars, key strategic priorities, if we can nail these, that will allow us to focus inward and start to expand into new energies, focus our time on exports. Organizations that are having, challenges, with safety, challenge with project execution, that takes your eye off the ball, and that ultimately will not allow you to meet the two strategic priorities in the middle. So speaking about safety, obviously, it's foundational. Before I get into this slide, I did want to just touch on.

You've probably all seen in the news, currently, we're experiencing wildfires again in, in the month of May, in, in the areas and communities in which we operate. I can let you all know that right now, none of our assets are, you know, in proximity to any of the current wildfires. But as of last year, none of our assets really last year were in proximity to the wildfires. It was the concern with respect to egress, getting our employees out of the assets, that's, that's when you had to shut assets down. So right now, we're, we're continuously monitoring, and things are changing, on the fly, but I can assure you right now that everything's in good shape, and we are significantly more prepared in 2024 than we were in 2023.

So moving on to our, one of our foundational items with respect to safety. You know, having a highly engaged, diversified, and safe workforce will be foundational to your organization to be able to move on. You know, we have a continuous improvement approach to our safety, learnings. You know, very focused on occupational. You know, those are the injuries that you would have. You know, process safety, that's, you know, maintaining high integrity within respect to your assets. And we're very focused on psychological safety. You know, the ability for people to speak up and stop work when they see things that just aren't right or take a pause, you know, as we move forward, to make sure that everyone goes home safely.

In 2023, we had some great improvements, 35% reduction to our SIF rate, so that's your serious injury and fatality rate. We're proud of that, but we recognize that we need to continue to improve in this area, and we obviously have some 2024 focus areas around process safety, continuing to advance our Operational Excellence Management System , and really working with our contractors, our partners. We recognize we would not be in business without our contractors, building some of the infrastructure we need, supporting us in various roles across Western Canada and the United States, and we also want them to be going home every night to their friends and family.

So, this will be, you know, something we talk a lot about internally and something that I'm fairly passionate about, we're passionate about, and we're gonna start talking about a little bit more 'cause we believe you have to be excellent in this space to carry on for the rest of, the rest of this presentation. Now, you know, so focused on safety, but we're also focused on reliability. I said previously, our customers, they rely on us every day, and we're in the customer service business. What you have here on this, on this slide is our gas processing business, essentially PGI, our pipeline business, and our fractionation, hub, Redwater. And it just shows kind of the averages of availability by quarter.

You can see that availability, meaning we're available to, you know, obviously, take our customers' process our customers' products, et cetera. You can see across the board, we have extremely high reliability. You know, and that's not, that's not out of luck. Pembina spends roughly CAD 150 million-CAD 175 million annually, inspecting pipelines, doing integrity work at our facilities, doing process safety improvements, et cetera, so we can enhance the reliability, for our customers. Last year alone, we inspected 5,300 kilometers, internally inspected 5,300 kilometers of pipelines, so that's internal inspections. Then, that will help us understand where we're gonna have challenges, where do we need to do a dig, et cetera.

So extremely proud of the work that group does, and we believe that between our operations staff, our maintenance staff, and our integrity and smart technical folks, that's what's driving these extremely high reliabilities that our customers seek when you have an integrated value chain. Obviously, a couple of the dips there, you know, it's not lost on us. In Q1 of last year, we had the Northern outage . We learned from that. We shared those learnings with our industry peers, and, you know, go forward, we'll be a better pipeline organization for that. And then, in Q2, you can see a couple of dips. Obviously, it was the wildfires last year. You know, we had to shut some assets down due to egress constraints that I mentioned.

Then, on the fractionation side, in Q2, we had a successful 15-day RFS II turnaround that was on time and on budget. That's just the routine five-year turnaround, and that's a little bit of the dip there. But all in all, we're very happy with our availability performance, and we hear the same feedback from our customers. Moving into the decarb space, so I'll take your attention over to the circles up in the right, on the top there. Roughly 70% of all of our emissions are scope one, and they come from essentially 80% of that is the consumption of natural gas, right? That's just operating our assets, running compressors, heaters, et cetera. So we're very focused. That's obviously step one, very focused on reducing the consumption of natural gas.

There's a couple of things that are obviously benefits that obviously benefits your input cost, your lower cost structure, not only for Pembina wholly-owned assets, but also for our customers, where we flow through the cost structure to our customers. And then, on the scope two side, essentially all of our scope two emissions are using electricity, you know, at various sites. And so just really focused on, you know, power optimization, et cetera, to not only reduce. And it's essentially to reduce the amount of power we consume, which directly affects the scope two emissions, but once again, reduces the cost structure, not for Pembina wholly-owned assets and for our customers. We've had some great successes to date. In 2023, we reduced our overall emissions intensity by 3%.

7%, you know, year to date, or sorry, inception to date, since we started from our 2019 baseline. So obviously, we have some work to do going into 2030, but we have a focus team now that is dedicated to, you know, understanding the cost abatement curve of all of our assets, and we're gonna be rolling that out to our board here in Q3, and then hopefully sharing a lot of that with you all in the future. So very excited and focused on our decarbonization priority. You know, I'm kinda going along a theme here. When you have a really safe organization and you're highly reliable, that allows you to, obviously, to really focus your attention on areas that require it, and obviously, our project execution. Project execution in Western Canada can be challenging.

There's a lot of different types of terrain. There's a lot of different types of weather, forest fires, et cetera, but we're extremely proud of the project execution that we've had over the past while. And you know what? It really comes down to a few things. There's no actual secret science to this, but having dedicated, collaborative teams who set out to achieve, you know, a unified outcome, we believe that we have some of the most talented people in industry. We obviously have a very vast knowledge of the area. We've been operating in Western Canada, you saw the video at the start, for 70 years, so we know the terrain. You know, people know how to drill under, you know, massive rivers and stuff like that, so extremely talented team.

And, you know, I believe what sets us apart is we have great partnerships with our contractors, the smart people who are drilling under rivers and, you know, providing services that Pembina doesn't have the expertise. That's absolutely key. And, you know, and then, also, our supply chain group that we don't talk a lot about, but we, we believe we've transformed our supply chain team into a strategic advantage, right? And, you know, having great project execution hopefully gives you all the, the confidence when we're announcing new types of projects that we'll continue on that, that focus and diligence. That leads into what do we got going on right now? Someone asked me last night: "What are you up to these days, Jaret?" Well, quite a bit, so kind of busy.

You know, we've got some pretty major projects that are supporting, you know, that continued growth. Happy to say the Phase VIII Pipeline, I think when we went to print, I told the team, "Let's put commissioning underway." As of two days ago at 4:00 P.M., all of the pipelines were back in service, taking our customers' product, so pretty proud of that. I think that project is. We reduced the capital spend on that project twice and, you know, I think we underplayed the significance of what we were doing in Phase VIII. We swapped a lot of products into different size pipelines. We changed directions of products.

We now, from Gordondale, Alberta, if you have a map in front of you, all the way into the Edmonton market for Saskatchewan, we have segregated C2 plus and C3 plus pipelines for our customers. No one else can provide that service to our customers, so pretty proud of Phase VIII pipeline. We obviously have a pump station up in Northeast BC happening that's gonna add about 0.04 MMbpd of incremental capacity for the, y ou know, I think we've talked publicly about three large producers that are dedicated to Pembina's infrastructure, so making sure that gets on. The customers are pretty keen for that to come on.

RFS IV, it's early, but, you know, with all of the dedications we have at Pembina and seeing some of this wave of growth coming, knowing that, you know, Dow is gonna get sanctioned and LNG Canada is gonna come on, et cetera, getting out in front of that and making sure that RFS IV is up and running, when we need it for our customers, that, that was pretty critical. And then I'll just go down to, you know, like, Alliance and Aux Sable. We closed that deal on April 1. April 2, we had 161 new employees in our office at Pembina from, from Enbridge, so, integration's becoming a core strength.

Acquisitions and integrations of Pembina's, we're getting we obviously have some hiccups here and there, but the feedback from the employees is that this is one of the best experiences they've gone through. So we're really excited about driving that first wave of synergies out of the Aux Sable and Alliance, acquisition, and then really focusing on providing incremental services for our customers. Gas egress is one of the largest constraints. Alliance, is a gas egress pipeline, and, and Pembina is in the business of, you know, owning and, operating assets and growing them. So we're excited to, you know, hopefully one day, start telling you about some of the ideas we have in that space.

You know, obviously, North America, we have some of the best resource plays in, you know, which are obviously very close proximities to some of the largest growing, demand markets in the world. On the left-hand side, you have gas resource plays. It's a payback period, and then you have the oil plays on the right. Pembina's infrastructure basically overlays the top 14 gas plays, right? And these plays aren't all the same. They're not all dry gas. They're not all, you know, uber liquids rich. Our customers, obviously, in, you know, throughout the Duvernay and the Montney and the Deep Basin, they have various different types of resources they can go after, depending on commodity prices. When gas was really, really strong, you know, in 2023, we saw a lot of customers shifting to the higher rate gas wells.

You know, you still get extremely positive NGL yields with that, so that's obviously really good for PGI. You know, we get paid on a processing MCF, and then we move all, you know, more gas that comes out, the more NGLs that come with it. You know, and then the customers can go deep into, you know, right now, condensate. You know, it's, it's very strong, so they're going into that lower rate gas, but high condensate. You know, overall, Pembina's infrastructure, being able to process natural gas, move all the different types of NGLs, move your condensate, maybe you find oil, we can also move that. So it's an unparalleled integrated value chain that can basically accommodate all of our customers' needs in the, you know, in all of these plays.

If you look over on the oil side, you know, obviously not in as many of those, but the, you know, the top two, it's the same resource. It's, it's the Clearwater. You know, and, and, you know, having your asset like the Nipisi pipeline, which we, we shut down, I think, in 2021, reactivating that, that's obviously going extremely well. We continue to see volumes grow on that asset, and just continually excited to, you know, get that thing fully ramped up, hopefully here in the near future. So where does that leave us, right? So here's the map of that, of our infrastructure, and you can see our infrastructure basically overlays all of those gas and oil plays that you just saw on the previous slide.

You know, we've been operating in this area for about 70 years. I think it's gonna be our 70th year birthday. You know, and we're committed to, you know, providing our customers with that committed, you know, cost-effective, safe, reliable service every day, while maintaining our social license to operate in the communities here in Western Canada and into, into the United States. Scott talked about it. Chris talked about it. We've grown tremendously, just even in, like, the last 7 years, with the constraints that we've had, you know, not only in Western Canada but, you know, into the U.S. Midwest, and we're really looking forward to the, like, the next 5, 7 years out to 2030, as, as Chris identified, because of some, you know, key things that are happening in our industry.

These are milestone game changers, and I'm gonna talk a little bit about that and how we're gonna benefit. So, they're listed there. You can see, you know, Trans Mountain, obviously. How will Pembina benefit, you know, at high level? Trans Mountain will, you know, hopefully drive incremental bitumen and heavy oil production. That production typically takes condensate, you know, for blend. We're one of the largest, we are the largest condensate domestic mover, transporter in Canada, and we have a lot of space on our Peace Pipeline. And our ability to grow that system, add pump stations like our Northeast B.C. pump station, we can do those very accretively. And so as condensate demand grows, we will be there to catch the volume. Cochin Pipeline , there's two import pipelines that come into Canada.

Cochin is one of them that we own. You know, just the high utilization demand for that asset will continue to be maintained. West Coast LNG, obviously, with more gas egress, you know, the customers aren't just drilling for a straight-up, you know, dry gas. With that gas volume of 2.5 BCF, 2.8, lots of NGLs will come, lots of condensate will come with that production. That's only gonna be a benefit for PGI, the pipeline business, the frac, et cetera. LPG exports, we play a small role in that today, you know, but we have the largest portfolio of propane, proprietary and customer-based propane in Western Canada, so we will benefit from incremental propane egress. Then obviously, the Dow Path2Zero cracker. Today, we move the majority of ethane in the province.

We're a very large producer of ethane, and we're a very large supplier of ethane. So I'll get a little bit into the benefits to Pembina and some of the projects there. So Trans Mountain. So Trans Mountain, I think May 1st was declared in service. You know, we can see, you know, with that 0.59 million barrels of incremental egress, oil egress, we see around, you know, 0.12 million barrels of incremental condensate are required to backfill the oil increase. Our Peace Pipeline going out to the, to the west, our reach goes all the way up into Birch, which is way up there in Northeast BC. That's the only condensate pipeline that goes that far up. We have the three publicly communicated dedications up in Northeast BC.

And then our entire infrastructure through— Once you get into Alberta on the Peace Pipeline system, we have a lot of optionality to move condensate for our customers. We move a lot of barrels today, which, you know, obviously drives down the OpEx associated with that asset. I talked earlier about our high reliability. I believe that we have some of the best integrity and maintenance people. So we're in really good position to, you know, capture a lot of those barrels, and bring them into the Edmonton market for our customers. And then obviously, the Cochin Pipeline. When we acquired that, I think that pipeline averaged around 0.09 MMbpd . You know, through the exact same people that I just talked about, you know, the good work that they did, increasing the throughput of that asset.

You know, we've got that up to about 0.11 MMbpd , you know, that, that asset go forward. So, you know, this will just, with TMX happening, that will just, you know, maintain that high utilization on Cochin for a really long time. So really excited with that asset coming into service. West Coast LNG. So between Wood Fibre, Pembina, and obviously, the big chunk is LNG Canada coming on here, you know, in the next few quarters. There's a lot of layers here, but essentially, gas egress is really good for Pembina, right? Why that is, is because I mentioned before, primarily all of the resource between the Montney, the Deep Basin, and the Duvernay, it's extremely liquids rich, right?

So when the customers do drill for their gas to fill this incremental egress, a lot of NGLs come and a lot of condensate come with that. This will be extremely beneficial for PGI. PGI, we have, you know, through our partnership with Cut Bank Ridge, partnership with Ovintiv and Mitsubishi, you know, we have roughly 1.1 BCF of gas processing just outside of Dawson Creek, directly connected into Coastal GasLink. Mitsubishi is obviously an owner in LNG Canada. You know, so we just see really high demand for our PGI assets. And then obviously, like I said, the NGLs that are gonna come with that, it could be anywhere from 0.1 million barrels -0.2 million barrels of incremental NGLs that are coming.

Our footprint, I stated earlier with the completion of Phase VIII, we have dedicated C2 plus and C3 plus pipelines all the way in from Gordondale, Alberta. Then we do have pipelines that go all the way into Northeast BC. So as the customers continue to fill that gas egress and white space that traditionally was full for gas that traditionally went down to the United States, and those customers in Alberta continue to fill that white space, there's gonna be a lot of liquids coming at Pembina, and we believe that our infrastructure, where it lies today, is extremely valuable and ready to capture a lot of those liquids.

I also just wanted to mention that, you know, here shortly in the next couple of months, we'll be finishing our, one of our last pipelines, and all the PGI gas plants will be fully connected to the Peace system. So, you know, it didn't take us that long. It took us a while to create PGI, and then it took us less time to make sure that all the gas plants were connected to Peace, so pretty excited about that. LPG exports. So obviously, we have an existing asset today. You know, there's another peer that has, you know, a really strong position in this space. But overall, I mentioned earlier, Pembina has a very large portfolio of proprietary propane.

We extract a lot of liquids out of natural gas today at various assets, and Chris's team makes sure that they get to premium markets. And then we also sell on behalf of our customers, a lot of their propane. You know, so overall, more egress, on the West Coast, getting it to the largest demand market, in Asia, will be a good thing, not only for Pembina, but, but for our customers. You may recall that Redwater, fractionation facility, it is the only fractionation facility. It's the only facility, period, that has unit train capability to move unit trains of propane to the West Coast. So that's a direct shot on CN, right from Fort Saskatchewan right to Prince Rupert.

So as that, you know, that obviously gives us scale and a cost competitive advantage to get our customers' products out to the West Coast. And then finally, the Dow Path2Zero ethylene cracker. So long time coming in behind the scenes to announce our 0.05 MMbpd supply. So back up a little bit. Today there's two acquired reserve ethane in the province of Alberta. We feed through the AEGS pipeline system. We feed 100% of that ethane to those customers today, and we also produce a tremendous amount of ethane. We supply a lot of ethane into that market, you know, through some of our deep field-based deep cuts, and then, you know, our Empress extraction facility and our Younger facility up in Northeast B.C.

Some of the benefits here, obviously with, with Dow, they're gonna grow the overall demand in the province by about 40% or about 100,000 barrels, and we're gonna be roughly 50% of that on the supply side. So what that means is that your ethane barrel, it needs to come out of— You know, obviously, with the gas production, you produce the ethane barrel, but you can't just produce the ethane barrel in isolation. With that comes a lot of C3 plus, so more propanes, more butanes, more condensates, and Pembina obviously plays a tremendous role in, in moving those and, and Chris's team selling those. So super excited about that.

But then also the incremental 50,000 barrels, depending on where that comes from, you know, we're obviously well-suited to move that on, and transport that on behalf of, you know, other customers, you know, into, into Dow's incremental cracker. So, you know, this has been a long time coming. This is an extremely positive project, not only for, for Alberta and Pembina, but for, for Canada, Dow choosing to build this here. So super excited and lots of opportunity, which I'm gonna talk about a little bit.

Some of the opportunities that we've identified, I'm not gonna get into details, but, you know, we think there's about CAD 300 million-CAD 500 million of net capital we're gonna need to deploy to, you know, obviously enhance the infrastructure for third-party barrels that'll be moving, but also enhance the infrastructure for our own 50,000 barrels of incremental supply. You know, that'll be through potentially incremental deep cuts, field-based deep cuts through PGI. That could be enhancements to some of our extraction facilities around, Empress. RFS III, that is a C3 plus frack today, but it's a, it's an identical replica to RFS II. So all we need to do there is just put the de-ethanizer infrastructure in at RFS III to, get that basically to a C2 plus 0.072 MMbpd frac.

So lots of optionality for Pembina. We're just evaluating what is the most cost-effective route to come up with our 0.05 MMbpd of supply and, you know, hopefully, we'll be sharing more information on that here in the next, you know, maybe a year, year and a half. So what does that all mean? You know, we've got great people. We've got great assets. We're committed to being safe and reliable for our customers. Our footprint is unparalleled here in Western Canada. We've been growing even in the face of egress constraints here in Western Canada. We've grown our footprint into the United States. We believe that we're very well-suited to be able to grow as these kind of very large catalysts come on.

You know, and not to mention that, you know, those, those charts that show the gas plays and oil plays, this is a world-class resource that we have, you know, underneath our assets. And, you know, Chris talked about it, but we believe that our core business, if we do this right, if we create a differentiated stakeholder experience, we're very focused and diligent on making our core business as resilient as possible. We will maintain that and grow that well past 2030, but that'll allow us to really focus in on, you know, more Cedar-type things, more export-type, type things, and, you know, getting into new energies. So with that said, 'cause I could talk about this for, for hours, and hours, and hours-

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