I will now hand the conference over to Dan Tucunel, Vice President of Capital Markets. Dan, please go ahead.
Thank you, Elizabeth. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Pembina's conference call and webcast. As outlined in the press release issued this morning and available at pembina.com, today's call will provide a broad business update, including our views on the industry, our business, and our path forward through the end of the decade and beyond. The presentation we are using today is available on our website. Before we begin, I would remind listeners that some of the comments made today may be forward-looking in nature and are based on Pembina's current expectations, estimates, judgments, and projections. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we discuss today. Certain information we reference also relates to non-GAAP measures. For further information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures, please refer to our quarterly and annual disclosure available on pembina.com, SEDAR+ and EDGAR.
On the call today, we have Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer, along with Pembina's full officer team, which includes Cameron Goldade, Chief Financial Officer, Jaret Sprott, Chief Operating Officer, Sarah Schwann, Chief Legal, People, and Corporate Affairs Officer, and Chris Scherman, Chief Marketing and Strategy Officer. With that, I will turn the call over to Scott.
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for this update. Today is an exciting opportunity for us to step back from the quarterly cadence and speak more directly about our macro outlook, where Pembina is positioned, why we believe our business is advantaged, and how we expect our strategy to create value through 2030 and beyond. Pembina has been part of the North American energy infrastructure landscape for more than 70 years. Over that time, we have evolved with the basin, built an integrated platform, and developed a track record of solving customer needs across the hydrocarbon value chain. We believe that matters even more today. Canadian energy is entering a period of expanding market access, growing demand, and improving strategic relevance, and Pembina is very well-positioned at the center of this opportunity.
Today, we will highlight where we are going as a company, why we will be successful, and the growth and value creation we expect to deliver to our investors through the end of the decade and beyond. There are five messages we want you to take away from today. First, our success has and will continue to come from something simple but powerful. We do what we say we will. Our growth and reputation have been built on delivering on our promises and earning the trust of our customers, communities, investors, and employees. Our credibility has been built on execution. Second, Pembina's advantage is based on 70 years of strategic investments and solutions that continue to serve an ever-evolving energy industry.
Our integrated platform gives us connectivity, scale, and flexibility that we believe are very difficult to replicate, and combined with our entrepreneurial spirit, positions us to win in the future. Third, our 3Cs strategy, capture, connect, and catalyze. It is a refreshed strategy that is driven by global and domestic fundamentals, and it is designed to grow our core franchise, extend our value chain, and create new platform demands where we have structural advantages. Fourth, the Canadian energy industry is driven by global demand and is growing across all products. Canada is blessed with an abundance of premier resources and has the expertise and capabilities to get those resources to the best markets. Growing export capacity, petrochemical demand, data center demand, and a supportive policy momentum are all driving exciting growth outlook for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.
Fifth, through our strategy, supported by operational excellence, commercial success, and project execution development, we are committed to delivering 5%-7% fee-based EBITDA per share growth through 2030, with marketing torque on top of this. At Pembina, credibility begins with execution. At our 2024 Investor Day, we set out a target of 4%-6% fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share growth from 2023- 2026. Despite developments we cannot fully anticipate at that time, including the Alliance toll review, our current 2026 guidance positions us at approximately 5% growth, right in the middle of that range. We are also on track to place approximately CAD 2 billion net of projects into service from 2024 through 2026 on time and on budget. At Cedar LNG, we moved quickly after sanction to re-market capacity on a long-term basis.
We said we would do the right deal, not the fastest deal, improving the project's economics while keeping the structure aligned with our financial guardrails. We are also participating in upside capture without downside commodity exposure. We have continued to strengthen the resilience of our core business, including contracting over 200,000 bbl per day of Peace Pipeline capacity in 2025, covering substantially all volumes that expired in those years. More recently, we've also begun to advance new opportunities in the Alberta Industrial Heartland, including Greenlight, where we have been a first mover in developing a contracted gas-to-power solution for data center customers. Stepping back and looking at our longer-term history, Pembina has always met its annual financial guidance, consistently increased its dividend, always operated within its financial guardrails, never suffered a material cost overrun, and maintained our investment-grade credit rating. The point is straightforward.
Our strategy is grounded in execution, not aspiration. You can trust us to deliver. Our ability to realize our vision will stem from the advantages of our fully integrated wellhead-to-market infrastructure and our ability to service customers across the full hydrocarbon value chain. Our business is built on solving problems and meeting the needs of our customers, and we are unique in the range of products we handle and the services we provide. Quite simply, no other Canadian midstream service provider does what we do. We handle crude, condensate, NGLs, and natural gas. We connect producing basins to domestic demand, North American demand, and global markets. We do that through a combination of scale, connectivity, market access, commercial relationships, project expertise, and financial capacity. That gives us two important advantages.
First, it allows us to create more value for our customers because we can offer integrated solutions rather than standalone services.
Second, it gives us the ability to extend our businesses into adjacent opportunities where our existing footprint, capabilities, and relationships create a low-risk entry point. That is what we have done historically. Some examples include being the first to integrate gas plants, pipe, and fracs in 2012, building the first large-scale frac complex in over a decade in 2016, the Hythe Sour expansion in 2021 being the first large-scale sulfur recovery facility in decades, having the only LPG unit train loading capability. That is what we are doing today with Cedar LNG, the largest indigenous-led joint venture and first floating LNG facility in North America. It is also what we intend to do with opportunities like Greenlight and the broader Heartland build-out.
While competitors may challenge our incumbency and attempt to recreate the Pembina of the past, it is our unique advantages that will allow us to remain an industry leader, forging new paths and chasing new opportunities. That brings me to our strategy. Pembina's vision is that together with our many stakeholders, we will shape the future by connecting North American energy to the world. To execute against that vision, we are focused on three strategic priorities, capture, connect, and catalyze. Capture means growing and strengthening our franchise in premier resource plays. In practical terms, that means additional pipe capacity, gas processing, and fractionation where customer demand supports investment. Connect means extending our core commodities to higher-value markets. That includes LPG and LNG exports, expanded market access, and infrastructure that improves egress from a constrained basin, reaching coast to coast to coast.
Catalyze means developing new demand platforms in the markets where we operate. Our innovative and entrepreneurial teams will endeavor to spark what comes next. That includes gas-to-power solutions for data centers, petrochemical opportunities, and other infrastructure that creates incremental demand for the products that move across our integrated system. These are not separate ideas. Together, they form the blueprint of how we intend to deliver the next phase of growth to the end of the decade and beyond. Our strategy is grounded in macro fundamentals. First, global energy demand continues to grow, and oil and gas remain essential to long-term supply. Natural gas, in particular, is expected to play an increasingly important role. Second, we believe Canadian energy is becoming more strategically important. Geopolitical developments, trade considerations, and a more constructive policy environment are all improving the case for greater global market access.
Third, LNG and data center power demand are emerging as durable sources of new demand, and Canada has meaningful competitive advantages, including low-cost natural gas and attractive West Coast access to Asia. Fourth, the Montney Oil Sands remain among North America's premier basins on inventory depth and economics. Pembina is the premier service provider in both. Fifth, decarbonization remains important, but the pace and capital opportunities around it are evolving. We believe disciplined capital allocation matters more than ever, and emissions reduction opportunities must compete appropriately against other uses of capital. These global fundamentals play out in the WCSB as a call on Canadian energy. Growth in the WCSB is being spurred by recent and upcoming developments. Our export capabilities are expanding rapidly.
Recently, both the TMX expansion and LNG Canada have come into service, providing nearly 600,000 bbl per day of new egress for Canadian crude oil and 2 Bcf/d of new egress for Canadian natural gas. Additional oil pipeline expansions, along with new or expanded LNG and LPG facilities, will drive further demand and growing production of all products throughout the end of the decade. Additional demand drivers include expanding petrochemical facilities and growing power demand. Dow's Path2Zero petrochemical project will result in an estimated 120,000 bbl/d of ethane demand, which will also result in incremental production of propane and butane. The proposed new data centers will drive about 180 MMcf/d of natural gas demand for each gigawatt of electricity needed to power those centers.
In combination, these developments are poised to represent new demand for Canadian energy products that would result in significant volume growth across Pembina's systems, which help fill existing assets and lead to further expansions. These are only the projects that have come into service already or that have good visibility to drive near-term growth. Taken together, these developments support growing volumes across all products. Because Pembina is integrated across those products, we expect to benefit along the value chain. Beyond the projects already in motion, policy momentum adds longer-term upside. Federal and provincial governments are increasingly focused on growth in LNG, petrochemicals, data centers, and energy infrastructure.
Governments have outlined aspirational targets that include growing LNG exports up to 100 million tons per year, attracting data center investments in Alberta up to CAD 100 billion, and expanding Alberta's petrochemical hub and building a new 1 million bbl/d oil pipeline to the West Coast. We are not underwriting our business to every aspirational target on this slide, but we do believe the direction of travel is very constructive, and even partial realization of these ambitions would support a stronger growth profile for the basin, for Pembina, and for our country. The growth of the WCSB is not limited to any one product. In fact, each product must work in unison with the others. Oil sands crude growth drives condensate demand. Liquids rich production supports condensate and NGL supply. LNG creates gas egress for the incremental gas supply.
LPG export improves propane market access, and petrochemicals create a new outlet for ethane. This matters because Pembina is not exposed to one part of the system. We are positioned across the system, and here's where it's exciting for us. We are the only one with the breadth of services across the value chain touching all of these products. At the center of that system is our asset base. We lead in many of the services our customers require, including gas processing, transportation, and fractionation, with growing LPG and LNG businesses. And this footprint overlays some of North America's most resilient resource plays that have the depth of inventory and competitive economics to serve demand markets globally and at home for many years to come.
The combination of our industry-leading capabilities across the value chain, along with the resource strength of premier plays like the Montney, Duvernay, and Heavy Oil Sands, shape our long-term value proposition. Simply put, we have the right assets in the right place at the right time. What does this all mean for Pembina? The execution of our 3Cs strategy designed to capitalize on growth in the WCSB, gives us confidence in our ability to deliver fee-based EBITDA per share growth of 5%-7% to 2030, and line of sight to future beyond that. We are committed to delivering on this through three primary avenues, higher utilization and volume growth across our existing assets, sanctioned projects already moving towards in service, and projects under development that extend our value chain.
We also expect other organic and inorganic opportunities to emerge over time as we turn ideas into reality, as we have in the past. We believe this target is ambitious but realistic. It is supported by visible building blocks, a strong core business, and a disciplined approach to risk and capital allocation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jaret to discuss the operational and execution foundations that support that growth.
Thanks, Scott. When we talk about Pembina's growth story, it's easy to focus on the visible outcomes, new assets, new markets, increasing cash flow. Sustainable growth only works if the foundation underneath it is strong. For us, that foundation rests on three pillars. Number one, operational excellence. Number two, commercial success through volume capture. Number three, disciplined project execution. Let me start with operational excellence because this is the foundation underneath everything else we do. For Pembina, operational excellence means running our assets safely, reliably, and efficiently, and doing that at scale. The first proof point on the slide is safety. In this graph on the top right, you can see a consistent reduction in two safety metrics, potential for serious injury or fatality, and serious injury or fatality from 2022 through 2025.
That improvement reflects strong frontline ownership, clearer expectations, and safety being embedded as an operating discipline, not just a value statement. For investors, strong safety performance is a leading indicator of strong, stable operations. The second proof point is asset optimization. The bottom right graph shows how when customer demand has warranted it, we've safely exceeded nameplate capacity across parts of our system. That only happens when assets are well-designed, well-maintained, and well-operated. The consolidated capacity created by the optimization of these three assets alone exceeds 70,000 BOE/D , and the majority of that capacity is being utilized today by our customers. This flexibility allows us to capture incremental volumes and support customers, often with little to no incremental capital, translating directly into higher quality cash flows. Lastly, to sustain this performance, we've also made deliberate organizational structure changes and have implemented a new management system.
We've clarified accountability, better aligned operations, maintenance and technical teams, and simplified decision-making. The goal is consistency, the same standards and discipline across the entire portfolio. That's how we continue to progress towards becoming a best-in-class operator. This operational foundation is what enables our commercial success and our ability to capture volume, which I'll turn to next. Building on that operational foundation, our second pillar is commercial success. This slide illustrates commercial success and volume capture across the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The headline here is straightforward. Pembina's growth continues to match basin growth, and we're doing that while achieving record throughput across our systems. Starting on the left with gas processing and extraction, you can see our physical volumes tracking, and in many cases exceeding underlying Western Canadian natural gas growth.
This reflects our position as the largest third-party processor in the basin with roughly 6.7 Bcf/d of capacity. Just as important, these are long-term, producer-backed relationships and infrastructure partnerships designed to grow with our customers over time. That allows us to capture basin growth in a way that's durable and repeatable. To the right, you'll see the same story playing out in the conventional pipelines. As Scott mentioned, over seven years of strategic investment, more than 20,000 km of pipe and a fully integrated system from wellhead to end market allows us to grow with the basin. We're connected and integrated, incremental volumes naturally flow in our system, support our higher utilization and stable cash flows under long-term contracts.
When you take a step back, commercial success at Pembina is about being in the right places with the right assets, serving long-term customers, and capturing volume with discipline. That commercial signal is what ultimately drives our capital decisions. That brings me to our final pillar in the foundation of growth, superior project execution. Project execution is about capital discipline first, delivering exactly what customers need, no more and no less. The headline on this slide says it well, capital efficient, safe, on time, and on budget expansions to meet customer demand. On the left, you'll see a snapshot of our current execution portfolio across our enterprise. These are not speculative projects. These are expansions to our existing footprint driven by clear customer commitments and basin-led demand.
You'll also notice a range of project sizes, from smaller brownfield expansions through to larger developments, which helps us balance risk, capital, and execution capacity. Since our 2024 Investor Day, we've sanctioned over CAD 1 billion of new pipeline and facilities projects on a net basis. More importantly, we're on track to deliver approximately CAD 2 billion of projects between 2024 and 2026, approximately 5% under budget. That's not just good execution, that's disciplined capital management. The portfolio of projects and industry-leading execution allows Pembina to place CAD 1 billion-CAD 1.5 billion per year into service, generating competitive returns and supporting our current and future growth targets.
Before I wrap up the foundation of growth, I want to leave you with one more execution proof point, Cedar LNG. Cedar is an important project for Pembina, not because it's large, but because it reflects how we execute complex, capital-intensive projects with discipline.
We've moved from sanction to advanced construction with a very deliberate focus on safety, indigenous ownership, and execution certainty. For a project of this complexity, progress to date reflects strong upfront planning and governance. Here's an illustrative rendering of what the facility will look like when it comes into service. As you can see, the actual onshore footprint is quite small given the floating nature of the project. The marine terminal facilities are currently under construction, and the vessel construction in the shipyard in South Korea is progressing extremely well. These images show what Cedar looks like today. Real work, real progress. The top left photo is the team executing the Cedar LNG pipeline, which is an approximately 8-km pipeline connecting the Cedar facility to Coastal GasLink pipeline. The bottom photo on the bottom left is an aerial shot of the marine terminal where the floating vessel will dock.
The scope shown here is primarily related to utility services such as power and other service requirements. The two photos on the right are the top side and the hull of the floating LNG vessel being constructed in the shipyard in South Korea. Overall, we've made material progress and are pleased that the Cedar project continues to progress. 2026 is the highest spend year for the project as we plan to reach several key milestones with our EPC and onshore teams. Additionally, inception to date, the project is approximately 50% spent and approximately 80% committed while still on time and on budget. On the right, you can see our key milestones that have been and will be achieved, from vessel construction through to sail away, arrival in Kitimat, and ultimately in service in 2028.
A few specific milestones we are looking forward to and which should provide the investment community with comfort as they think of any incremental risk are the vessel in South Korea will move from dry dock to wet dock mid this year. It'll set sail in 2028, and it'll come online in late 2028. Recall, approximately 70% of the project is structured under fixed price EPC arrangement, which significantly limits cost overrun risk. That's exactly how we want large projects structured and managed. Economically, the structure is equally disciplined. A fee-for-service model that secures base cash flow with the ability to participate in upside. Pembina will generate $220 million per year in fixed fees from Cedar's customers. In addition, we'll have the opportunity to generate incremental asymmetrical upside through additional volumes and commodity upside participation.
This is a result of recent contracting through which Pembina has the opportunity to increase its return under certain commodity price scenarios. As an illustrative example of the potential upside, given the current energy disruptions and the impact on pricing, if Cedar was in service this year, our net share would generate $300 million of EBITDA through fixed fee commitments and commodity price participation, excluding the potential incremental cargoes. Importantly, Cedar further integrates Pembina across the value chain from gas processing through to global markets. We see this project as a value chain extension, which provides incremental egress to a constrained basin. We are proud to have this project backed by three leading producers, ARC Resources, Ovintiv, and PETRONAS.
All three are valuable customers to Pembina today, and this project allows us to provide them services beginning from gas processing all the way through to end markets. When you step back, Cedar is a strong example of the foundation we talked about today. Operating discipline, commercial alignment, capital-efficient project execution. That foundation positions Pembina extremely well for what comes next. With that, I'll turn it over to Chris, who will walk you through how we're translating this foundation into future growth opportunities.
Thanks, Jaret, and good morning to everyone on the call. Whereas Jaret covered our existing core business, which provides the foundation of our 2030 growth target, I'm excited to share some of the future opportunities that our teams are advancing, and importantly, why we're confident in our growth outlook. Across Pembina, we see a strong backlog of development opportunities. These are on strategy. They're customer and market-driven infrastructure opportunities that are aligned with our risk-return framework, not only in our core business, which includes additional pipes, fractionators, gas plants, and export terminals, but also by continuing to develop new growth pathways and extend our value chain. Scott touched on it earlier. Pembina is uniquely positioned to benefit from the convergence of markets, policy, and our capabilities. I'll show how we're translating that convergence into durable growth and executing upon our 3Cs strategy, Capture, Connect, and Catalyze.
Before I review specific opportunities, I want to start with our history. Pembina's history is a story of entrepreneurship and disciplined expansion. Building businesses is in our DNA. Over the last 20 years, we've repeatedly entered into adjacent businesses where our capabilities, infrastructure, and commercial relationships gave us an advantage. There are three common themes across this history. First, we deeply understand market and customer needs. We anticipate those needs and invest proactively to address them. Second, we invest in scalable growth platforms and establish ourselves as the market leaders across those platforms. Third, we integrate businesses into the Pembina core, driving incremental value and enhancing our customer offering. This slide includes several examples that highlight these themes. We built a marketing business to capture inherent commercial value in our assets.
We expanded into gas gathering and processing, fractionation, long-haul natural gas transportation, and oil terminaling to capture growth and expand our service offering. We invested in LPG export and now LNG export to connect to high-growth, resilient global markets. Most recently, we're extending again into gas-to-power infrastructure, creating a new growth pathway while catalyzing demand. My point is simple. Our history is not one of isolated projects. It is one of building integrated and scalable businesses over time. Now, let's have a look at what we're pursuing next. Clearwater is a good example of how that model continues to work. The Clearwater Formation has become one of the most attractive resource plays in North America, with strong production growth, compelling returns, and favorable decline characteristics. Pembina already had the right of way and infrastructure footprint in the area through our Nipisi Pipeline.
We anticipated the emerging growth, and when the play materialized, our legacy positioning created new value. Since reactivating Nipisi in late 2023, volumes and EBITDA contribution have increased by more than 50% versus 2020. A pipeline that went empty is now fully contracted, and with activity and customer demand continuing to grow, we are evaluating expansion options, including twinning and pump station upgrades. Clearwater demonstrates a broader point. In midstream, optionality embedded in existing assets is highly valuable. The Nipisi Pipeline is a great example of how our commercial insight and asset positioning create opportunities to build a durable business around evolving circumstances. That same concept of exploiting optionality is what we're doing at Heartland, just on a larger scale.
As we look forward to 2030 and beyond, some of our most significant development opportunities are benefiting from Alberta's ability to attract billions of dollars of investment in petrochemical and data center projects. This growth focus is and will drive hydrocarbon demand within Alberta. That's benefiting Pembina's existing business and supporting our new growth pathways. Pembina's industrial heartland position, located near Edmonton, provides a compelling value proposition for new investment, particularly as it relates to Alberta's vision to become a data center and petrochemical leader. The region has several structural advantages, industrial land, water access, supportive regulation, labor availability, grid connectivity, low-cost natural gas, available ethane supply, transportation infrastructure, and proximity to carbon solutions. We've been positioning ourselves around these structural advantages for some time and are now seeing the payoff in the form of several exciting growth opportunities. Pembina is distinguished by an advantage we've spent 70 years building.
Leveraging this advantage allows us to build businesses with economic synergies unlike any of our peers. This slide brings that together. Our existing heartland position includes Canada's premier fractionation complex at Redwater, industrial land, hydrocarbon supply access, and strong downstream connectivity. On top of that, we're advancing two new opportunities. The first is Greenlight, a contracted gas-to-power solution for a large-scale Canadian data center development. The second is the Yellowhead extraction plant, which will support our ethane commitments to Dow while also increasing C3+ volumes available to Redwater and our broader NGL system. Additional future opportunities that leverage this platform include the Alliance regional expansion and the Alberta Carbon Grid. One platform, two growth vectors, all within our right to win, integrated and scalable. Now let's have a look at a few of the specific opportunities in front of us. I want to start with Greenlight.
Greenlight is a good example of how we think about catalyze within our 3Cs strategy. It's a proposed 900-MW combined-cycle natural gas power facility that we're developing with our partner, Kineticor, to serve data center demand. Strategically, it extends our natural gas value chain into a durable and growing end market. I want to make three important points. First, this is not a move into merchant power. Our objective is to secure a long-term contracted infrastructure profile consistent with Pembina's typical risk and return standards. Second, Greenlight will create incremental demand for natural gas and associated liquids, which enhances our core business and provides the potential for an Alliance regional expansion. Third, consistent with our history of building businesses, Greenlight is another example of an integrated, scalable growth platform for the future.
Over the past year, we've made significant progress on Greenlight, which supported our customer's grid process. We've sold land, secured turbine availability, advanced permitting, and progressed EPC work. We're targeting a final investment decision in the second quarter of this year and in service in 2030. We're in the process of finalizing our commercial terms that will be largely consistent with a typical contracted Pembina infrastructure project, including a 20-year agreement backed by investment-grade counterparty. The other major Heartland opportunity I want to talk about is petrochemical supply. Pembina already has a leadership position in C2+ extraction, transportation, and fractionation, including as a leading supplier of ethane in Alberta. Looking forward, we have a 50,000 bbl/dy ethane supply agreement with Dow, and the proposed Yellowhead extraction plant is one of the ways we can support that commitment while also creating incremental value from associated C3+ production. This is attractive.
It combines a visible customer need with broader system benefits across extraction, transportation, fractionation, and marketing. What does it all look like within our broader growth funnel? This slide ties together the growth path we've outlined today with identified opportunities. Between sanctioned projects and projects under development, Pembina has a visible pipeline of opportunities to support our 5%-7% fee-based EBITDA per share growth target through 2030. That includes capture opportunities, which are growing and strengthening our franchise and premier resource plays with pipeline processing and fractionation expansions. It includes extending our core commodities to higher-value markets via connect projects such as Cedar and export optimization, and it also includes catalyzing demand by developing new demand platforms in the markets where we operate, including projects such as Greenlight and Yellowhead. This morning, we're very focused on 2030 for the purposes of this financial outlook update.
However, continuing our history of building businesses and capitalizing on the opportunity in front of us across policy, markets, and our capabilities, we have built a project backlog that extends beyond 2030. The projects I've spoken about today are investments in growth platforms that support growth to and beyond 2030. We're investing around the best resources, highest growth, and most meaningful, durable trends in the energy sector. Specifically, we continue to see the potential for additional optionality across Cedar optimization and expansion, further gas to power, additional basin debottlenecks, and carbon infrastructure in the future. To be clear, we do not need all of these opportunities to deliver on our 2030 growth targets that we've shared today, but it does reinforce our confidence that Pembina's growth runway extends beyond the projects directly in front of us. With that, I'll turn the call over to Cam to review our financial outlook.
Thanks, Chris. You've heard today about our strategy, the operating foundation that supports it, and a portfolio of projects poised to deliver continued long-term, low-risk per share growth. I want to focus on the financial framework that underpins all of that. Growth is only valuable if it's pursued with discipline. Our objective is not simply to grow. It's to grow in a way that strengthens the franchise, maintains our financial guardrails, supports the dividend, and enhances value. Foundational to our strategy, and by extension, our long-term outlook, is capital allocation. The key message is consistency and discipline, backed by a long track record of doing what we say we'll do. First in our capital allocation hierarchy is balance sheet strength. This is anchored in maintaining a strong BBB rating, which we have done now for 13 consecutive years.
We are one of only five North American midstream peers without a negative rating action in the last 10 years. Our disciplined and prudent approach to leverage, anchored in a target range of 3.5-4.25 times proportionally consolidated senior debt to EBITDA, has served us well historically. It has afforded us the ability to fund growth, manage risk, and seize attractive opportunities when they arise. The second priority is our dividend, which is the foundation of Pembina's investment proposition. Our objective is to deliver sustainable, reliable, and growing dividends. Our track record here is very strong, 4% compound annual growth over the last 25 years, and we've never cut our dividend. Third, we deploy accretive growth capital. We invest in projects that align with our strategy, enhancing capabilities, extending our franchise, diversifying the business, and increasing the duration of our cash flows.
Projects must fit our risk appetite framework and generate returns which create economic value commensurate with the risk. Importantly, accretive growth capital must always compete against other discretionary uses based on risk-adjusted returns. Finally, we consider discretionary capital. This includes debt reduction, share repurchases, or incremental dividends. We make this allocation decision after evaluating the risk-adjusted returns of all potential uses, considering internal and external inputs. For example, we may choose to retire debt when interest rates rise or repurchase shares when there is a dislocation in the markets. We've done all of these in recent years and remain disciplined to allocating capital where it drives the highest value for investors. A moment ago, I talked about accretive growth capital within our allocation priorities. The message here is that we have a track record of accretive capital deployment with a low risk underpinning, and we expect that to continue.
Between 2021 and 2025, Pembina's adjusted EBITDA grew by over CAD 850 million. Over that same period, capital and service increased by nearly CAD 6 billion. Using simple return on invested capital math, the return on that capital was 14.3% in 2025. This implies a 7x EBITDA to capital multiple. Equally important is the cash flow quality. In 2025, Pembina's business was 90% fee-based, with the vast majority of that being low risk, take-or-pay or cost-of-service cash flows. Looking forward, the projects that you have heard about today reflects more of the same, both in terms of risk and returns. Built multiples across the sanctioned and underdeveloped portfolio vary by project type. However, average approximately 7x. The cash flow composition in 2030 is similar to today, demonstrating our consistent approach to risk.
We prioritize projects with one or more of the following attributes being adjacency to our existing footprint, strong customer pull, durable contractual support, attractive capital efficiency, and a clear strategic fit within our integrated value chain. The project portfolio includes a mix of brownfield opportunities, system debottlenecks, and selective greenfield developments. Importantly, our footprint often helps us drive greenfield projects to generate higher brownfield-like returns through integration. Our strategy and the execution components discussed today support compound annual fee-based EBITDA per share growth of 5%-7% from 2026- 2030. Fee-based EBITDA per share captures the performance of our core business and helps normalize the year-to-year variability of our price-exposed marketing business. Starting from the midpoint of our 2026 guidance, the first building block to 2030 is higher utilization and volume growth across our existing assets, plus the contribution from approximately CAD 5 billion of sanctioned projects.
Together, we expect these pieces to add between CAD 650 million and CAD 700 million in additional fee-based adjusted EBITDA over the period, generating approximately 4% compound annual growth from this component alone. It's important to note that our margin assumptions for existing assets in this outlook are conservative. We can deliver this plan with only a fraction of the per unit margin growth we've achieved in the recent years. Our recent and sustained commercial and contracting success, which Jaret spoke of earlier, supports this outlook. The second component is approximately CAD 5 billion of projects under development, including opportunities such as the Nipisi expansion, the Alliance regional expansion, Greenlight, Yellowhead, and other developing projects. Including these projects takes our compound annual growth rate up to 6% by 2030.
Keeping in mind, 2030 incorporates only a partial year contribution from the Greenlight project, so the benefit extends beyond that horizon. It is also worth clarifying our expectations around the shape of this outlook, which is influenced by customer activity and the timelines of our projects. Based on our current expectations, we forecast growth to be concentrated in the 2028-2030 period, and therefore at or above the 5%-7% level in that timeframe. Conversely, we expect growth below the 5%-7% level in 2027. This profile is primarily informed by the timing of our sanctioned project portfolio. As we showed back on slide 17, assets and service increased by roughly CAD 1.4 billion in 2026, then another CAD 1.1 billion in 2027, and then another CAD 2.9 billion in 2028.
The projects in our under development grouping are by nature also concentrated in the 2029- 2030 timeframe. The final component reflects additional organic and inorganic opportunities that we expect to emerge as we move through the period. Our track record has demonstrated that there is inherent option value in our business, and we have consistently seen new opportunities emerge as we move through the years in our long-range planning horizon. Lastly, because we are speaking to per-share growth, share count also matters. Our base plan does not assume any share buybacks in this period. With that said, in our capital allocation framework, buybacks remain an option for residual cash flow. Growth capital, including additional organic and inorganic opportunities, will always be evaluated against buybacks in service of the highest risk-adjusted returns to investors.
Up to now, we've focused mostly on our fee-based business, but it's also important to recognize the role of marketing in our business model. Marketing is an important value-enhancing overlay across our integrated business. It helps us to optimize our assets, improve customer and proprietary product netbacks, and enable growth of our infrastructure. Our goal is to create asymmetric upside in our business through marketing, and our commercial approach is oriented that way. Finally, marketing offers a strategic hedge to our fee-based business, allowing us to mitigate or benefit from temporary or transitory market dislocations. Today, our marketing business has three core components, being crude, Western Canadian NGLs, and U.S. NGLs.
In the future, we see additional upside as system volumes grow and we have more volumes to market as new projects come into service such as Cedar, and as legacy commercial arrangements evolve, including the post-2030 expiry of the third-party marketing agreement at Aux Sable. Over the past three years, we have seen a variety of market conditions, and the results reflect that. As the heat map shows, 2024 saw exceptional performance as most business drivers were in line or above five-year averages. By comparison, our 2026 guidance reflected the mirror opposite, with most drivers in line or below five-year averages. While the focus of today is very much about the long-term outlook, it would be amiss to not acknowledge the world events of the moment and their impact on commodity markets.
As it remains difficult to predict the longevity of the conflict in Iran and the follow-on implications, it's premature to formally re-anchor our 2026 marketing outlook today. That said, based on the prevailing forward prices, it's clear the outlook has improved meaningfully from our original 2026 guidance. We've also taken advantage of this pricing environment to layer in additional hedges for 2026 over the last five weeks and raise the floor on our 2026 outlook. As it stands today, our 2026 frac spread exposure is now 65% hedged at a weighted average price of $35.41 per barrel. In funding this growth, our approach is straightforward. We live within our means. At our 2024 Investor Day, we committed to fund CAD 4 billion of capital investment with cash flow, and we are on track to deliver on that commitment. Looking forward, our philosophy is consistent.
From 2026- 2030, we expect to generate between CAD 16.5 billion-CAD 18 billion in total cash flow from operating activities. After funding a growing dividend, we have roughly CAD 7 billion-CAD 8 billion of cash flow available to invest, or roughly CAD 1.5 billion per year on average. This matches very well with the roughly CAD 7 billion of remaining capital to be invested in our sanctioned and under development projects. The outcome is a program which delivers 6% per share growth on a self-funded basis with a strong balance sheet and leverage below current levels in all cases. Outcome of an already strong balance sheet and self-funded growth is that we grow and our leverage metrics strengthen further. Alternatively, we can access incremental debt while remaining squarely within our target leverage range, roughly CAD 3 billion in this outlook.
This debt capacity stands available to fund other organic and inorganic opportunities as they become available, taking us to the upper end of the growth target of 7%. Just as importantly, the stage nature of the capital program helps us manage execution, timing, and financing needs over the period. Finally, no discussion about financial policy at Pembina would be complete without reviewing our financial guardrails. Since pioneering them in 2016, the guardrails have served as Pembina's risk parameters for executing strategy. Again, the message is simple and straightforward. Our track record informs the future. The guardrails have remained intact, unchanged, and without exception since 2016. To wrap up, let me just repeat. As with many things you've heard today, we do what we say and our track record shows it. With that, I will turn the call back to Scott.
Thanks, Cam. Let me close with a few final observations. Pembina enters the close of this decade from a position of strength. We have a durable core business, a differentiated integrated platform, a visible growth path, and a disciplined financial framework. We are operating in a basin with improving fundamentals and expanding market access. We have projects already moving into service.
Projects under development that extend the franchise and additional opportunities beyond that. Most importantly, we have a track record of executing well. Pembina's value proposition is straightforward and disciplined. We execute our 3Cs strategy, Capture, Connect, and Catalyze, to deliver sustainable growth and long-term value for shareholders. We capture advantage resource opportunities that strengthen our core business. We connect those commodities to premium coast-to-coast markets through a fully integrated value chain. We catalyze new demand platforms in the markets where we operate. How we do this matters. We lead with operational excellence, industry-leading project execution, and a clear, consistent risk appetite. We maintain strong financial guardrails, innovate how we work with customers, and pursue both organic and inorganic growth, always with discipline. The result is a resilient, low-risk business model.
We generate visible fee-based EBITDA for share growth, fund accretive projects within cash flow, and rely on long-term, predominantly take-or-pay contracts. Importantly, we have a proven track record of delivering projects on time and on budget. That's what gives us confidence in Pembina's ability to continue creating value through cycles and why we believe Pembina remains a compelling long-term investment. Thank you for your time. With that, we'll move to Q&A. Operator, please go ahead and open up the line for questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Aaron MacNeil with TD Cowen. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hey, morning all. Thanks for taking my questions. First one's on the sort of unsanctioned growth projects. I could appreciate the big puzzle piece is Greenlight, and I know in your prepared remarks you mentioned you don't need all of them to go ahead, but the regional expansion of Alliance is sort of related. Yellowhead sort of needs to go ahead if you satisfy the Dow commitment, and if you assume sort of higher utilization and volume growth, it's also likely that Taylor to Gordondale goes ahead as well. Is it fair to assume that most of these projects under development bucket go ahead? Maybe to ask a bit differently, what's sort of foundational to the guide, and what would you sort of characterize as optional?
Hey, Aaron, it's Cam here. Let me start, and I invite my peers to pile in afterwards. I think it's a fair question and a good one in the sense that clearly, first of all, we've presented a range for that bucket of the projects under development between CAD 0.40-CAD 0.65 per share on a fee-based EBITDA per share basis. When we look at that project portfolio, and you've highlighted them, obviously there are some projects where we are more advanced in kind of the execution timeline. If I think about where we are on Greenlight today relative to, say, a potential Nipisi expansion, we're probably further along there. Likewise, you do acknowledge that some of those projects are related in some way, shape, or form. I would say, obviously, that we started off with the bottom end of that foundation to reflect.
Obviously, you take the bottom end of that foundation to get to the 5%, which we've anchored as the bottom end. We do have a high degree of confidence that we will achieve those types of projects. Obviously, they're not sanctioned today, and we wanted to distinguish between those and the ones that obviously are sanctioned and in execution. But if we didn't have a degree of confidence around at least that bottom end moving forward, we wouldn't be including that. I do think we see that.
Okay. Fair enough. Obviously, I see the spend profile. As you noted, Cam, a lot of the in-service dates are towards the end of the period. Can you give us a bit more detail in terms of where you calculate peak leverage? Can you say a bit more about what you think about marketing performance over the time period as you think about corporate leverage more holistically?
Yeah. Happy to, Aaron. Going back, I think what we see firstly is we talked about 2026 being sort of the peak spend year for Cedar. That informs one major data point. Clearly, as you think about where we move in that range, it obviously has to do with capital and business performance, to state the obvious. I would say right now that when we look forward through this profile, you heard me say that we de-leverage in each year through the end of the profile relative to current. I think that's probably pretty straightforward and intuitive. When we look forward to 2027, pardon me, is another significant year of Cedar spend, albeit lower than 2026, and we're incorporating new projects.
You could conceivably see leverage kind of at similar levels to 2026. In 2027, potentially moving up slightly in our target range, recognizing, of course, we've talked historically for a long time about that target range and a strictness to staying within it. I would say as you think about the rest of that implication for 2027, it ultimately comes down to your view on the marketing outlook. Notwithstanding the strength that we're seeing in the near term in 2026 in the forward prices, there's always backwardation in the curve. If you take the forward prices as a given, it is, again, a softer year in comparison to 2026. That goes into the leverage calculation.
All that to say, as you start to see 2028 through 2030 come online from those projects, you see significant de-leveraging, which obviously gives you the opportunity to de-leverage sort of towards or below the bottom end of our target range. Obviously, as we present in this forecast, continue to recycle that back into new investment opportunities and maintain leverage within the lower half of our leverage target range.
Got you. Thanks, Cam. I'll turn it back.
Your next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen with Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Would you expect the FIDs of Greenlight and the Alliance expansion to occur simultaneously or within short order of one another? As far as additional phases of Greenlight beyond this initial one, would you expect to pursue additional expansions of Alliance as well? In that vein, are there any capacity limitations for Alliance over time that we should keep in mind?
Hey, Theresa, it's Chris. Thanks for the questions. The two FIDs we expect to be proximate to each other, but not necessarily on exactly the same timeline. They're not necessarily mutually exclusive, although obviously beneficial if we can get that integrated. As far as future opportunities with Greenlight, which I think was the second part of the question, we certainly see the opportunity to do more than Greenlight one, and anything we do beyond here, we'd like to have integrated in the same fashion as we're doing the base plant and the base deal. There ultimately will be limitations on Alliance, but we've got lots of running room. We've got lots of running room there, at least through a few phases. It's not something we're concerned about at this point.
Thank you. To the earlier commentary about new markets of focus with petchem in mind in particular, and tying that into your comments about pursuing integrated and scalable projects, what salient data points or thoughts can you share with us at this point about the next phase of growth for Pembina to serve this end market?
I assume you're referencing ultimately petrochemical supply.
Correct.
Yeah. We continue to see the province be long ethane. We think there's incremental opportunity even beyond what's happening today. Obviously, we're very focused in the near term on satisfying the growth rate in front of us with Dow and optimizing our portfolio around that growth. We think there's potential even beyond that in the future.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JP Morgan Securities LLC. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning.
Morning, Jeremy.
Just wanted to dive into the guidance a little bit more and see what was baked in for overall volume expectations, for the base business, what that growth looks like, how that compares to basin growth, and I guess, how you think about Pembina's market share changing over time.
Hey, Jeremy, it's Cam here. I'll take a stab at that one. I think a little bit of the theme today was obviously sort of the history informing the future. I think, if I'm going to answer that question in that vein, I sort of look at our history, in terms of the basin growth in that sort of low single- digit type range. Obviously, it depends on products, obviously gas and NGLs versus crude oil in some cases. When we look back at our history sort of across the business and so forth, we sort of look at something in the 2%-3% range on aggregate, and obviously that varies per business. When you look at our sort of forward look at that, I think we conceivably see something similar across the board.
Like we've said in the past, I mean, there are obviously areas where we're running at very high utilizations and there is opportunity, obviously, should we have more capacity, and we're looking at ways to do that to drive more. The natural gas value chain is the clearest one in my mind. There are other areas, obviously, where we have excess capacity and part of what's embedded in this forecast is us obviously increasing utilization as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, and leveraging those highly accretive margin barrels to fill the growth. That said, I think you can sort of, if you're trying to understand what's underpinning this growth forecast in terms of a sort of a base and level volume look, it would be a similar growth rate in sort of that low to mid-single digit level.
Got it. That's helpful. Thank you for that. I just wanted to come back, I guess, to the building blocks into potentially 7% in that last bucket there, that other bucket. I was wondering if you might be able to peel back a little bit more on what that could be and what's, I guess, more likely than not, if something were to materialize there.
Yeah, happy to, Jeremy. Again, it's Cam here. I think a couple things we pointed out. In the prepared remarks, again, we mentioned sort of the inherent option value that exists in this asset base because of its connectivity, its breadth, and its scale. I think one thing I'll point to is if you go through the projects that make up the preceding two buckets, what you don't see a lot of there is any opportunities in the gas services bucket. I think as you've seen the commercial success in that business since we set up PGI in 2022, we've added close to CAD 2 billion of new capital on a gross basis, on a PGI basis, so take 60% of that for Pembina's contribution, in a three-year timeframe, basically.
As we look out at a five-year timeframe looking forward, I would say that based on both the opportunities that we have visibility to, and we do have visibility to opportunities, significant opportunities, which are not embedded in any of the preceding buckets, as well as just opportunities that we think will come from our connectivity and ability to serve customers in a different way over the five-year timeframe. That's one piece of it. That could range anywhere from the organic and frankly, the inorganic bucket. The second piece I would say is that, when we look at the inorganic piece, obviously, based on the scale of that wedge, it's probably more focused on tuck-in acquisitions, small kind of bolt-on acquisitions. It does feel like there will be opportunities for that in the next five years.
The fact of the matter is, when you unpack the math on that at any kind of a reasonable return principle, you really only need about CAD 1.5 billion of incremental capital to sort of generate the high end of that range. Frankly, in history, based on what I said before, I think that's a readily achievable number for us.
Yeah. The only thing I'd add there, Jeremy, is the other thing about that we haven't modeled is upside from new assets coming into service. We've talked a lot about how you don't get to do brownfield expansions or debottlenecks if you don't start with greenfield. When I look out over this timeframe, we'll have incremental pipeline capacity, new pipe in the ground, we'll have RFS4, Cedar, and LPG optimization. All the kind of base economics are in this plan. History would show you that as we put new assets into service, we find ways to optimize them, as Jaret highlighted, which are generally capital light and very efficient opportunities. That could form part of the 6%-7%, but none of that is in the 4%-6%.
Got it. That's very helpful. Just to be clear on the inorganic, we're talking about PGI bolt-ons as opposed to PPL acquiring incremental stake in PGI.
I was referencing, yes, PGI bolt-ons as opposed to incremental acquisition of PGI. Correct.
Perfect. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Burwell with Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. Can you hear me okay?
We can.
Beautiful. I just wanted to clarify a few things on the CapEx associated with the second and third buckets. Slide 33 says CAD 5 billion for projects under development, but slide 36 says something a little bit lower, and I think, Cam, you've spoken to lower numbers. I mean, is it fair to say that there's, call it CAD 2 billion of CapEx associated with the projects under development, and then there's CAD 3 billion that's tied to the future upside opportunities? I'm just trying to get a sense of what the CapEx numbers imply in terms of a build multiple, especially for the second bucket.
Yeah. That's about right, Sam. I think you got to remember, obviously, we're talking about projects that go into service between 2026 and 2030. Obviously, some of the spend has already been incurred for those projects. We're talking about the full capital stack or full sort of assets in service to try and delineate the build multiples. When we talk about the funding picture of what's left to spend, obviously, it's a different number. I think, I'd obviously point back to. I'd point back to slide 33, as you referenced, where we look at the portfolios of the sanctioned and the projects under development around the build multiples, sort of both at around 7x.
That reflects, obviously, the totality of both the fee-based, but also some of the commodity-exposed components where there will be some of those projects which do have some commodity upside. Obviously, that's aligned in that number as well.
Okay. Understood. Maybe unpack one thing we haven't discussed yet, I don't think. The butane value enhancement, is that tied to Yellowhead or is that some other brownfield opportunity?
I guess just high level, would that be a large or relatively small piece of the projects under development bucket?
Hey, Sam, it's Chris. Yeah. That's a distinct opportunity from Yellowhead. It's an opportunity to pursue, as it says, butane value enhancement. We're pretty simple in the way we think about working our way through the commodity stack. We've got our strategies and plans for everything all the way from C1 to crude. This is an opportunity we have to add value to the butane stream and the butane supply that's coming through our facilities today, and we think is certainly going to increase into the future. Right now, we can't share any of the specifics around scale or structure, just given some of the commercial sensitivities with where we're at on that one, but looking forward to be back in front of you all with more details before launch.
Sam, I'll just sort of-
Okay, great.
point out that the contribution of that to that bucket would be less than 10% or around 10% at most to that individual bucket. There's obviously a whole grouping of projects which make up that, and it's not a disproportionate share by any means to that grouping.
All right. Understood. Thank you, guys.
Your next question comes from the line of Ben Pham with BMO. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks. Good morning. I had a question on the selection of duration of your guidance. I'm just thinking a few years back, 2024, you used 2023 as a starting point. I'm curious, just thinking the thought process around the four-year CAGR guidance, and then similarly to why didn't you go to 2031 when you only put in potentially half of the contribution of Greenlight?
Yeah, I think there's a couple things there, Ben. The first thing I'd point out is obviously 2026 reflects a bit of a run rate on the business. Obviously, we've got a full year of the Alliance settlement in 2026, and it sort of represents a natural grounding rate. Going back to 2025, for example, starts to cloud that. We're really trying to show a same store sales kind of growth rate. Obviously, as we were thinking about the duration of the growth, we weighed a number of things. One is, I think the inherent message is that the fact that we're going out to 2030 demonstrates or is a proof point around the durability and the confidence in the low risk nature we have in our business. Of course, there are always uncertainties in any five-year planning horizon.
As you've heard multiple times from us today, we're really big on doing what we say. We have a high degree of confidence that both our ability to sort of continue our commercial success, but also the assumptions that we're embedding in this outlook are highly achievable. That gives us a high degree of confidence. I think, as we start to get out beyond that 2030 timeframe, it's obviously always a balance between the visibility we have within the core business and the tailwind or the benefit from sort of new capital. We weigh that. We thought that 2030 was ultimately a very competitive time horizon, and we were capturing much of the projects that we have in our visibility today, but balancing the right level of sort of longevity with certainty.
Maybe just to also add one point, Ben, which you point out, which may be lost in this analysis is, you're right, it only has a half year of Greenlight. If you'd actually annualize Greenlight for 2030, it's about another 40-50 basis points.
Okay. Got it. Thank you. Maybe my detailed question, you mentioned a placeholder for CAD 5 billion of projects under development in the guide. Is there a portion then of that, I would think like part of that's Greenlight. How much of that is not contributing to your guidance through 2030? I would think a portion that benefits post-2030 timeframe.
Everything with the exception of Greenlight hits run rate by the time we get to 2030.
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Catellier with CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thank you for the presentation, in particular, the long-term growth outlook here. You've answered most of my questions on the project side. I'm just curious about the execution. In particular, it looks like we could enter a period where maybe the funding volatility is increasing, and I would argue even the EPC cost risk increasing. Maybe could you just walk through that, what you're thinking in terms of your approach to a risk management on projects, including the use of EPC lump sum contracts and where you see the pricing for those items?
Good morning, Rob. Maybe I'll break it down into just a couple of buckets. When we talk about our base execution of pipeline expansions, gas plants through PGI fractionation, complex type infrastructure.
We think we have fairly great positive partnerships with contractors here in Western Canada that can execute all of that, and we don't see a lot of material pricing increases in that space with other ongoing projects in Western Canada. When you start talking about the EPC lump sums, it definitely is specific to the types of work you're doing under those lump sums. For example, the two large ones that we've been talking about right now would be Cedar LNG facility and then also Greenlight. We won't get into the specifics of the types of risk profile that those organizations are taking. What I would say is there's a hunger out there for organizations to enter the Canadian market, specifically in Alberta, to be working with organizations like ourselves to be building those.
Long story short, we're seeing people to be able to step up and that hunger to work with us.
If I can summarize it, you really haven't changed your approach to how and when you use EPC, and you haven't yet seen cost increases. You're confident there?
Correct.
Yeah. Last question from me. You mentioned bolt-on acquisitions, which I think you have a long history of that, but you also have a history of more significant acquisitions along the way. Clearly your growth outlook here doesn't need it, but I'm curious about what your appetite and outlook is for maybe a more substantial M&A.
Hey, Rob. I guess I'd just go back to the fact that we're obviously highlighting the potential for bolt-on acquisitions in our framework. I think as you hear our strategy, obviously it's a very complete strategy around the 3Cs and the integration with the existing business. I don't think we see any holes today in our business. Obviously, it's our job to look at opportunities to enhance our business, and we will always look at opportunities to enhance our business if we see them. Obviously, as you've mentioned, what's embedded in this forecast, which we believe is a very competitive growth profile, obviously with a lot of low-risk components to it, does not include any major M&A.
Understood. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Hope with Scotiabank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Morning, everyone. I want to dive a little bit deeper into the projects under development. Appreciate the incremental clarity on Q2 or the reiteration that Greenlight will be sanctioned in Q2. Maybe moving over to the Yellowhead extraction plant, what hurdles are remaining for this facility, given the fact that it does look like the customer commitments are secured there? Would you need to be sanctioning this in 2026 to hit that 2029 in-service date?
It's Chris. Thanks for the question. The hurdles with this one are pretty consistent with traditional Pembina project hurdles, right? We continue to progress the engineering. We need to be comfortable with exactly where that's at. We need to be comfortable with all the commercial items. It's progressing nicely. I'm certainly optimistic that we'll have it formalized and FID'd in 2026 for sure.
All right. Thanks for that. Maybe a broader question. As you were revisiting your strategy, did you take a look at other geographies, or do you think you have enough runway in Western Canada to keep you busy beyond 2030?
Hey, Rob, it's Scott here. When we looked at our strategy, we absolutely took a North American view. I think based on the materials you see today, it's not really about regions. North America has continued to be an integrated hydrocarbon value chain. We absolutely did, especially from today versus three, four y ears ago with 100% of Alliance and Oxbow, we obviously have more interest in the U.S. in terms of assets. That formed part of the strategy. I would say based on this plan out to 2030 to deliver, you can tell that it's clearly Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin driven. As we look out beyond 2030, we do see opportunities in the U.S. as well.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Kenny with NBCF. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning, guys. I appreciate the presentation. Just on the build multiple range, and the average of 7x being maintained going forward. The pretty wide range there of 4x-10x, depending on the project. I was just wondering, what types of opportunities you would consider sanctioning, or I guess what sort of attributes you would need to see in order to go ahead with an investment with perhaps a double-digit build multiple?
Sorry. Pat, it's Cam here. Are you talking about the under development projects or just sort of beyond that group?
Yeah, it could be basically within the unsanctioned bucket. It appears as though it could be anywhere from 4x-10x . I'm just curious as to how those projects would stack up in terms of investment attributes and what you'd need to see in order to sanction at the higher end of that range going forward?
Yeah, got it. Sorry. Thanks for clarifying. I think one thing that we've talked about throughout this presentation today is the concept of risk-adjusted returns. Obviously, we look at things on that basis. I think obviously you can see if you want to use Cedar as sort of a litmus test or an example on this, the risk-adjusted returns on a purely contracted basis for Cedar are obviously at the higher end of that range. I would say that reflects the parameters that it's a 20-year facility with cost protection, both on the capital costs, but also on the operating costs, and it comes with investment-grade counterparties, obviously to high demand markets. We would see that as a very low-risk project. Similarly, obviously that's a greenfield type project, and so those facilities by nature tend to have, on average, higher build multiples.
That said, we also have the ability to integrate those facilities down the line longer term, and also capture some upside as we've done on Cedar. I think we have the ability to bring those types of return profiles down closer to the average in time, which whether it be our history with acquisitions or with greenfield projects pardon me, we've always endeavored to do that. I think that would be, if you want to think about what conditions would sort of lead us to sanction capital with those kinds of returns, it would be that. One would be extremely low risk, but also the ability with time to bring those multiples down through integration.
Okay. That's super helpful. I guess within the connect bucket of future growth opportunities, I wonder if you guys could provide just a bit more color on the other LNG and LPG export opportunities. I know it's probably early days for both, but just wanted to get a better sense of what your vision looks like for your LNG and LPG export platforms longer term, in terms of size, scale, and even location, if possible.
Hey, guys, it's Chris. Thanks for the question. Maybe I'll break it down into a few areas around the specific items listed on the slide. First and foremost, you nailed it. Not in a spot where we can share specific details, but it's really no secret the market is calling for more of those products off the West Coast. Our federal government, provincial governments, everyone's aligning behind trying to make that happen. We've got existing positions there today, both in LNG and LPG. LNG, obviously under construction, LPG in service. When we think about Cedar LNG optimization that got referenced earlier when Jaret was talking about some of the economics, we have the opportunity to potentially put additional cargoes through that facility, and so there's some optimization through incremental gas vis-à-vis that construct. Obviously, we're interested in expanding Cedar to the extent that's possible.
That's in the works. We're working out the details of how that might be able to happen. Very interested in other opportunities off the West Coast. We think we've got a tremendous base to build off of there, both from stakeholder relationships, as well as included in that, our customer relationships we've built through Cedar. We're looking to build off of that. Very similar story on LPG export. We don't think the LPG export story is done on the West Coast, and we continue to pursue those opportunities.
Okay, that's great. Thanks, guys.
Your next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks, all. I guess if I look at page 34 of the deck, the fee-based EBITDA is growing from CAD 3.9 billion in 2026 to CAD 5.2 billion in 2030. That implies a 7.1% CAGR. Just trying to reconcile that with the 5%-7% long-term growth target and just make sure we're interpreting the numbers correctly.
Yeah, sure, Praneeth. Great question. It's Cam here again. I think when we think about building up that range, we sort of think about, you're very right. If you were to take the high end of each of those bars, so you take the midpoint of 2026, you add the CAD 1.20, you add the CAD 0.65, and you add the CAD 0.30. That obviously gets you to 7%. Recognizing that it's a plan, and as we said earlier in this presentation, there are some things which we're more or less advanced on or have more or less visibility to today. We wanted to present a range, and so if you look at the bottom end of those ranges in each bar, so the 6.76, the CAD 1.10, the CAD 0.40, that actually gets you to the 5%.
I think what we're ultimately trying to communicate with that is that we have a lot of certainty around achieving a 5% growth rate through that, and we have very good visibility to achieving a 7%, both of which we think are quite compelling in the construct of the market today.
Got you. No, that's helpful. Maybe just turning to the Alliance open season, so looks like it's 350 MMcf/d . On paper, that's larger than a 900-MW data centers, probably 110 MMcf/d of gas needs. Should we interpret that as potentially sizing the Alliance expansion to support not just the phase one but phase two at Greenlight, or are there other downstream demand opportunities? Then tied to that, can we assume, I guess, based on kind of the guidance, the slide deck on page 34, can we assume that the combined project, which would be Greenlight and the Alliance expansion, kind of fits in that 7x build multiple range that you're targeting?
Good morning. I'll take the first part of that question, then maybe hand it over to Cam. Chris mentioned earlier in one of the questions around the runway that we have on the Alliance Pipeline. This, you pointed out the CAD 350 million. That does give us incremental runway to do more than the roughly 900 MW. It also is just in the overall methane demand in and around the Alberta Industrial Heartland continues to grow. It's not just Greenlight, other gas to power. There is other industrial demand that is in behind that.
Just, anse, to address your second question, what I would say firstly is that, the commercial negotiations on that project or both of those are sort of not formally buttoned down at this point. Forgive me for the way I answer this, but I guess what I would say is that obviously those projects do make up a meaningful part of that under-development portfolio and obviously do influence that. I think we've long talked about that type of opportunity, sort of in a typical midstream-like build multiple or return kind of framework. I'll sort of put those two data points together for you, and obviously the math sort of has to work a certain way. I think it's probably pretty consistent with what we said historically.
Yep. Got it. Okay. Thanks, guys.
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Scott Burrows, CEO, for closing remarks.
Well, thank you, everybody. Thank you for your time today, and we look forward to continuing the discussion. Have a great day.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.