work and expand margins, particularly on the cable side, as we return that business to top-line growth by the end of the year. That's what we're tracking to, and we're feeling good about the momentum we're getting on the cable side of the business in both the East and the West. The second piece of it is truly integrating what I would call the back office. We did the customer-facing pieces first. Still a bit more to do. But as we do that and bring in, and we'll talk about it in the session, some of the AI technology, it's really about streamlining and automating a lot of what we do. And now we have the scale to do that nationally, which is working for us.
And then finally, the balance sheet and getting leverage down, we had guided to get to 4.2 times by year-end, and we think that sets us up well for continued delevering into 2025, and our plans around that are tracking well.
Superb. So, the three areas I'd love to dive a little bit deeper in it. It all speaks to, I think, the priorities you're setting. One is looking at the TV segment of your business, the Xfinity roadmap, and of course, tightly integrated with internet. And just want to get an update on some of the developments there. Then there's the DOCSIS roadmap as well. Obviously important for any North American cable company. And then lastly, on 5G, obviously, you being the only national 5G network that's wholly owned, think a good opportunity to talk about some of the things you're doing on 5G. So why don't we start with the Xfinity roadmap?
I think the context I'd like to provide, you know, for the audience here is I think Canadian telecom operators have some of the best networks in the world. You've spent probably more than most telecom markets in building out that infrastructure. You know, you're not necessarily right at the finish line, but a lot of money has gone into this infrastructure, and now it's time to monetize and modernize. With that as the context, maybe you can give us an update on kind of what that Xfinity roadmap or that home roadmap looks like.
Yeah. A couple of things I'd say at the outset as we go through the three. You're right, we have been doing a lot on innovation and pushing that forward. But I should stress at the outset, we're not focused on innovation for the sake of technology and leadership. We're always looking to, is this something that we can monetize or it's gonna give us a competitive advantage? So that's really what we're focused on throughout the various initiatives. Specifically on the Comcast, we had a relationship where we had what I would call the first version of Xfinity, and we licensed that product, and it's been a very good competitive advantage for us in terms of the user interface, TV experience.
What we now did is renewed a 10-year deal, and it gives us a few advantages. One is, of course, the economics are better, but two, as we focus on, in this case, wireline investment in infrastructure, we want to do it efficiently. And Comcast just brings scale to the cable business that they're willing to share with us because we don't compete in their markets, helps them in delivering some of their costs. And it helps us because we're getting technology and products at a fraction of what it would otherwise cost if we were trying to do this on our own.
And so not only did we enter into an agreement to bring the next version of Xfinity, and so you'll see later in the summer, the Rogers Xfinity platform, which includes Entertainment OS. So we'll be bringing that. And one of the things we really like about that is it's IP-based, and so we see a world where we're launching the video app, not just in homes, but on every single device that leaves our store. That's really what we're chasing. You know, we passed 10 million homes, and that's an opportunity. But we've also talked about expanding into the almost 7 million homes we don't pass today. We did it with fixed wireless access and wholesaling the TPIA regime here in Canada.
And so we've increased the size of the addressable market, but we also want to bring the functionality of the products to mobile devices. So we're really chasing the 16 million customers that we have on the Rogers 5G network as well. So that's how we're thinking about it. So it'll include the TV experience. It'll include Self Protect, the monitoring. We launched earlier Storm-Ready internet, so that if there's a power outage or a break in the cable fiber somewhere, it automatically switches over to the wireless network. Customer won't know, and it does it seamlessly. So if they're on a Teams call, they're not gonna drop the call and have to come back on. And so you'll see that in market later this year.
It's an example of what we're bringing in terms of convergence between wireless and wireline, and we'll talk more about that. But beyond the products that you see in the interface, there's the whole technology piece behind it, and we're following closely the DOCSIS 4 and the 10G roadmap, hand in hand with Comcast. It isn't a fast follow. You're gonna see as they pilot in certain markets, we're gonna be doing the same. We've re-engaged over the last two years with CableLabs. Between Comcast, CableLabs, and a few other cable partners that we're working with, we're at the forefront of where that's going, and leveraging off a lot of work they're doing.
And so think about, in the network, the AI tools that help us better predict and assess where there's damage in the line and is causing internet problems. All of that is part of the partnership as well. So it's, it's a fulsome, relationship that we have. The last 7, 8 years has been very good, between us and Comcast. And as we move forward, they're very interested in the scale we bring with having a wireless and wireline network. They're wholesaling the wireless right now, for the most part, and so, they see us as a good platform and a good partner to bring that technology, which is gonna help them as they scale that side of the business.
You know, you talked about that cable wireless convergence, and I think the last time you were in this room, we were talking about Rogers within CableLabs being on the cutting edge because of your asset mix, and we see a lot of the US cable cos trying to kind of replicate that in some way, shape, or form. You mentioned a little bit on putting content, you know, on all devices, which brings kind of wireless into the mix. But, you know, what do you see maybe both kind of revenue opportunity as well as cost efficiency on that kind of converged cable wireless model? And, you know, where are we in terms of kind of real network convergence in terms of how you deliver all of this?
Yeah. The convergence is really, we see it two ways. One is, a seamless customer experience. Classic use case is, you're in your home on a call, and, might be a video call, so it's connected to Wi-Fi. You're moving out of the home into the car. It won't seamlessly today switch over to a wireless network. It drops, you have to dial back in, and that's the experience you have. And so think about, we're sort of at the forefront of that being just seamless, and it'll switch over between Wi-Fi and 5G.
Yeah.
And it'll do it seamlessly, with much less effort. So today, the phones, and we're working with the hardware companies as well, they typically try to force onto Wi-Fi because it preserves battery life. And that's how they make the claim that, you know, you got 24 hours of battery, whereas when you're on the wireless network, it just drains it more.
Yeah.
So having a much more effortless transition between the two is something we're working on with CableLabs. We announced putting in place CableLabs North, and so CableLabs is putting their heft and engineering talent and working with a few of our folks out in Calgary. But it's also the hardware suppliers as well. And so there's that experience part of it.
But the second piece is, an opportunity to offload traffic, from the wireless network, much more efficiently. That's what it's about. And so, once it's able to do it seamlessly, we just... You know, it's a lot of investment in wireless and in spectrum, and there just isn't ever enough spectrum, to carry the increasing load. Data continues to grow at 50%, data usage year-over-year. And so anything that can use the wireline network, both in and out of the home, by the way, to offload that traffic, is gonna improve the efficiency, of the infrastructure.
Certainly, one of the great kind of strategic rationales of bringing Shaw under the fold is having that infrastructure in Western Canada. You mentioned DOCSIS 4.0, and you know, I think we'll probably keep it at a higher level, just given the technicality here. But can you just update us on—and you said, focused on what consumers want. You know, how are they consuming, first of all, you know, content via either your internet service or through your TV platform? And then, you know, ultimately, you're going to adopt or deploy DOCSIS 4.0. Can you just kind of give us a sense of, you know, what the benefits are to Rogers in doing so?
Obviously, your main competitor out there, even though you still have fiber, are, you know, the telcos with fiber out there. So how does DOCSIS 4.0, you know, play into your competitive strengths, given that setup, looking at 3-5 years?
Yeah. As we think about the wireline network, we've already transitioned. We typically talk about it as a TV cable business, but we've already transitioned to its internet first, and then the applications, including the video experience, right on that. And so we hope to have those products to create the demand and attract the customer to our internet and keep the stickiness. So that's, you know, as we think about the Xfinity platform, quite excited about the front end they have not only for video, but controlling all the things in your home. You know, the average home today has over 20 connected devices. A year ago, it would've been 11. So something that is able to be a front end that integrates them all seamlessly is gonna be good for us.
But to bring it back to... So when we think about the wireline, it's internet first. We sit as a cable industry in a fortunate situation in that ubiquitously, we easily do a gig and a half, a speed 1.5. And so that's working well in terms of being able to blanket our entire homes passed with that offering. As you said, as we do greenfields, we're putting in fiber, everybody's putting in fiber, but how do you continue to increase the payload and the capacity?... where we already have a client. And so I always bring it back. DOCSIS evolution is a way to do it with some hardware and software, so that we increase the speeds eventually to 10 gigs.
We've been doing trialing, we continue to have be consistently at 6-8 gigs. And as we work with the US partners, that's coming along quickly. The biggest hurdle is really CPE supply. And so while some of the testing is happening and will pick up in earnest towards the back half of this year, it really isn't market launch until next year. So in the meantime, what we do is you'll hear the term mid-split, high-split, which is replacing and putting in radio equipment in the network. We've done the West already, and we're completing the East over the next 12-18 months, probably more like 12 months, and it's all within the capital envelope we have.
It's an extremely efficient way to increase the capacity for the data growth that I talked about, especially as more and more of it is video, and the demand of video and quality of video keeps going up. You know, we went from 4K to a whole bunch of other things, and so that keeps going up. Video consumption is going up, and for CAD a few hundred a home, it's extremely efficient compared to having, especially where, you know, what we call brownfield, where you already have a network of trying to put in fiber, it's just too costly, and, you know, our competitors are running at CAD 4,000-CAD 6,000 a home in trying to do that.
So the economics are just too clear, and that's why it makes sense for us to follow that roadmap, and again, leverage the technology that the large U.S. players have already undertaken.
It's interesting you say, you know, Canada's always been fast follower, but, you know, it sounds like just the relationship with CableLabs and obviously, you know, your Xfinity partner down in the U.S., it sounds like you're gonna be a little bit more tip of the spear in terms of how all of this does get rolled out, at least on the product side.
Yeah, very much so. I mean, there is the, It's, it's worth reminding the group that the capability of internet is well ahead of where usage and demand is today. So a little bit is bragging rights in terms of having the fastest, etc. But what we're finding is, notwithstanding, you know, the 1.5 gigs that we offer everywhere, the typical entry point or buying point is 250-500 meg still.
And so if you're to look at the number of customers that are 1 gig and above, it's still 15% or less for the most part across the nation. So we'll continue to invest in that capacity, but again, some of it is branding, but we don't want to put too much money into it either, if the market isn't there and stepping up in terms of buying the product.
I'm not clearly asking you for, you know, guidance above and beyond 2024. Just... You did mention your CapEx envelope of, you know, I guess the CAD 3.8 billion-CAD 4 billion, I think is the guidance for 2024. It sounds like you're comfortable in, you know, all of kind of these moving parts under the hood, maintaining that envelope, at least?
Yeah, we think about it as, you know, in our business, the investment and payback cycles are 10-20 years. In the overall scheme, while interest rates, cost of capital, has come up, in the last few years, in a 20-30-year cycle, we're still sitting at pretty good cost of capital. We're sitting in an environment where the Canadian population is the fastest growing, amongst the developed countries, and so there's a market to capitalize on. So against that backdrop, investing, continuing to invest in networks, seems like, the timing is right. And so that envelope that you talked about generally, without getting, very specific, but in and around CAD 4 billion, seems to be, the right number, for us.
Allows us to get done what we want to get done, without getting too far ahead of ourselves, while at the same time, given our cash flow position, gives us the room to continue to delever as well.
Before I throw it out for any questions, I do wanna shift gears a little bit into that third bucket, 5G. You know, as investors, we've heard for, you know, probably two, three, four years, you know, what are the use cases of 5G? From a Rogers perspective, you know, you've had an interesting strategic move in a fixed wireless. So maybe, you know, provide an update on, you know, how you're leveraging kind of 5G and private network to deliver fixed wireless, and it, you know, jives very neatly with your expanded TAM that you talked about.
We relaunched fixed wireless access a few months ago in a much simpler way. We really followed, quite frankly, the T-Mobile hardware model. It's the same hardware, simple, easy, pick it up, we ship it to you, you plug it in, and it just works. And it's 100-150 megs of speed, and the popularity of it has just been terrific. What it really tells us is customers are looking for simple and easy, and it has, we were already on a journey to what I would call revamp the cable delivery model. But what's clear is the world of ordering internet, waiting for a technician to show up, and the length of time that that takes...
that 1970s model isn't gonna work, today, and it's not what consumers want. So we're relooking at, I would say, the whole wireline delivery model. But because we have a national network, and we're the only operator in Canada that has a complete national 5G network-
We've been able to launch fixed wireless access across the country, but in particular, in places we don't have a wireline, namely parts of Southwest Ontario, which is Cogeco territory, and Quebec. It's been extremely effective in those markets. So the evolution for us with that, as we introduce network slicing, it'll allow us to create like dedicated lanes so that we have capacity for fixed wireless access without congesting the network for our smartphone users. So we're really excited about that, and you'll see that deployment happen towards the end of the year. But between now and then, we have the capacity on our network to continue to roll out fixed wireless access.
I mentioned also the wholesaling, and what we're really trying to do is, and I'll bring it back to the economics, leverage our wireless coverage, which is national. We cover 99% of the population, but we only cover about 60% of homes passed. We now have a bundled offering, and towards the end of the year, what you'll see is the product set being: it's Rogers Everywhere, wireline, wireless, the Rogers Xfinity will be available, and the customer won't care if it's a wireline network on net for us, whether we're wholesaling on the back end or whether it's a fixed wireless access. We're gonna make that seamless for them, and all they know is they have the complete Xfinity platform riding on a network.
Very interesting. It makes a ton of sense, especially when you've got 40% that you haven't covered yet, obviously a good growth opportunity. I've heard you, Tony, over the last 6-9 months, when you talk about fixed wireless or TPIA, you're very thoughtful in terms of how you price these products. And, you know, you've been careful to say, "Hey, we are, you know, looking at market rates and then competing on things like customer service and product." Is that the right way to still characterize, you know, how you're being thoughtful about deploying these technologies? Because obviously, it does add to the competitive landscape.
Yeah, you know, what's different in Canada compared to the U.S. market is that all four players, wireless players, have a wireline infrastructure. And so it's good to see the industry being thoughtful about how we converge not just the technology, but the pricing on it as well. And so for us, fixed wireless access was not, even though incremental, has a very good flow-through, it just rides on infrastructure that's already there. But we priced it at market, and so on launch, we priced it at CAD 50, as I said, for 100 megs. The price is now CAD 55, as the market moved. And so it's priced in line with the wireline products in the marketplace.
And so the appeal has been more about ease of getting set up and buying as opposed to price. And so, that's a strategy we'll continue to follow, is, continue to monetize both technologies-
Yeah.
have a value proposition that's beyond just price.
Fantastic. I still have a couple of things to go over, but any questions out there for Tony?
Yeah. So, I mean, you mentioned that CAD 4 billion seems to be where you've been, but that seems high because your wireless is at 20% intensity, and wireline is like 27%.
Yep.
Seems much higher than where some of the other guys are. So, just looking forward, is that gonna change?
Yeah, think about it-
Is that what this technology is doing, digitizing and all that, bringing that intensity forward?
Yeah, really good point. So a couple of things to touch on. You know, the CAD 4 billion mark, think about that as there's a few things we wanna do in the short term and have been doing that really focus on network quality and network coverage. Mid-split is a good example, expanding our wireless network and capacity on the wireless network. Edmonton is a great example, where two years ago we were losing share because we just had the worst network amongst the competition. We moved within 18 months to now the best network, and it's our fastest-growing market, as an example. So there were short-term things we wanted to invest in to move the ball forward and have network go from both wireless and wireline to best in every market.
So that's what we've been doing, and you see that in the capital intensity ratios that you quote. As we continue to grow revenue and frankly, grow EBITDA, the idea is CapEx will stagnate, and I'll talk about three to five years in a moment, but over the next few years, those ratios will start to come down. We do see wireless longer term as we think about three to five years out, capital intensity more in the 16% range, which is where the industry is at, and maybe lower with some efficiencies. And on the wireline side, think about it in the 20% range, compared to what we have now. So that's sort of the destination. The other piece is the movement between CapEx and OpEx.
So as we move to more AI tools and licensing of technology, you know, on the AI side, we didn't get to talk about it much, but that is an area where we are fast follow. For putting money into AI for the sake of it, we're just not interested in a solution looking for a problem. So we're working predominantly with the large U.S. players on the wireless wireline side to license their tools, and that'll move a lot of the CapEx to OpEx, but improve overall cash flow. We think on balance, and so that will help CapEx come down as well. So the way we traditionally think about capital intensity may need to evolve for us in the investment community over the five-year horizon. But as that shift starts to happen, we'll clearly communicate that.
Net-net, what it should do is increase cash flow margins for both of them. Does that help in terms of how we're thinking about?
A little more music, because you're-
You may see... Yeah, let me restate it. You may see, the evolution of CapEx coming down, but some of it will be offset with OpEx going up. But net-net, it should be cash flow accretive, overall.
So EBITDA-
CapEx should be growing.
Should be growing. Yeah.
Just with an eye on the time, Tony, I want to squeeze one more in here. And it gets back to 5G and use cases there, and you talked about fixed wireless and obviously just kind of great, great use of ultimately, you know, higher bandwidth through wireless. Any other use cases that you want to flag as, you know, maybe of interest to investors to keep an eye on as we kinda look out the next two, three, four years in terms of what Rogers is doing and again, monetizing that wireless infrastructure that you built?
Yeah. You know, I talked about the fixed wireless access and that private area networks is an evolving one as well. And these are for companies. Mines are great examples that are very remote and are looking for an infrastructure to run automated equipment and things like that. And so that's a part of our enterprise business that has been growing double digits. And the other piece of it is IoT, connected devices of all sorts. And those are all things that continue to monetize the network. You said it at the outset, you know, is there one killer use case that's the pot of gold at, you know, at the end of the rainbow? We don't see that. It'll be a continual evolution of it.
But increasingly, the introduction of satellite is also changing the use case and the investment. So we now think about rural coverage, whereas two years ago, you know, our plans would have been more towers to cover rural. We've pivoted to satellite. And so we've gone through testing satellite to mobile, talk and text is real, and you'll see that launch towards the end of the year. We're still waiting for the government to approve the spectrum usage for it, which we are hopeful will come in due course. But that's a more cost-effective way of getting coverage. I always provide the stat. We cover 99% of the population with our 5G network, but we only cover 12% of the landmass in Canada.
So there's 88% that we don't cover, and satellite does it much more efficiently. Yeah.
Well, that's almost like a mic drop moment. I never would have thought there'd be those percentages. But look, Tony, I'd love to continue this, but with an eye on the time, we'll have to cut it off there. Thank you very much for participating and great context on the Rogers story.
Thank you. I appreciate the discussion. Thank you.
Thank you. It's awesome.