Russel Metals Inc. (TSX:RUS)
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Apr 30, 2026, 4:00 PM EST
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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 11, 2022

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our 2021 year-end and fourth quarter results conference call for Russel Metals. Today's call will be hosted by Martin Juravsky, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. John Reid, President and Chief Executive Officer of Russel Metals Inc. Today's presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer period. At that time, if you have a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. I would like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Martin Juravsky. Please go ahead, sir.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Great. Thank you, operator. Appreciate it. Good morning, everyone. I plan on providing an overview of the Q4 and full year 2021 results. If you wanna follow along, I'll be using the PowerPoint slides that are on our website. You just go to the investor relations section. If you go to page three, you can read our cautionary statement on forward-looking information. Before I go into detail, let me just put out context around 2021 for a second. The financial results were incredibly strong by any basis of measure, but equally as important for us, the results go beyond the financial performance and include accomplishments related to employee safety and engagement, customer service, social responsibility, giving back to our communities.

It was very broad-based in terms of what we think we accomplished in 2021, and we are very proud of that on all fronts. From a financial standpoint, the 2021 revenues were our highest ever achieved at a little over CAD 4.2 billion. More importantly, we translated that into record EBITDA earnings and return on capital. Our initiatives over the past 12-15 months allowed us to benefit from the strong market conditions that we experienced last year, but they also put us in a really great position and a springboard going forward. Now let's turn to page five, Market Conditions. The market continued to be very good across our various regions in Canada and the U.S.

Even though there's more inventory in the supply chain today than there was three-six months ago, it is still at a reasonable level. In addition, we saw price realizations actually increase in Q4 versus Q3. Steel prices and margins have recently declined but remain above historical averages, and we continue to remain optimistic on the overall business conditions that we're seeing for our business in 2022. In terms of the reallocation of capital investments, this has really been a transformational change for us. When we look at Russel's profile today, it's very different than it was 18 months ago and we expect it will continue to evolve in the years ahead. As we have discussed before, the objectives behind the portfolio changes were to both enhance returns and reduce risk over a cycle. There are a few initiatives that we completed.

Item one, the OCTG line pipe monetization is now done with about CAD 300 million of capital permanently removed from that business. One item to note is that the structure that we used to monetize the Canadian business has worked out exceptionally well, as not only did we recreate a significant amount of cash, but we also retained an equity interest in the joint venture that has performed well. The equity interest has given us earnings upside, but also kept the joint venture's working capital volatility, which can be quite extreme off of our balance sheet. Item two, capital reinvestment and value-added projects, it's a multi-year process for us. We are seeing very good results from the recent investments, and we'll be adding a series of new project in 2022 and the additional years ahead.

In total, our CapEx for 2021 was around CAD 29 million, and we expect this to grow to closer to CAD 50 million in 2022 with an increased focus on additional value-added equipment projects throughout our system. The third item is the M&A front. We closed the Boyd acquisition at the end of November, and we are very pleased with how the people and business from Boyd fit within Russel's culture and platform. Even though it's relatively early, their financial contribution to Russel is noticeable. In terms of capital structure flexibility, from a financial standpoint, we're in really good shape. Typically, during a market upswing like we have seen over the past year, the higher cost of inventory would be placing pressure on our liquidity.

In our case, we transformed the business so dramatically that we've been able to easily manage through the higher cost of inventories and maintain a lot of dry powder to take advantage of potential opportunities going forward. Cash flow is strong with CAD 156 million in Q4 and CAD 639 million for all of 2021. Liquidity, CAD 495 million is very strong. The upgrade that we received recently by S&P and the initiation of investment-grade rating by DBRS will further lower the cost of our bank debt under the recently extended bank credit facilities. Just to put a little bit of that in context for the benefit, the cost of our bank debt today is currently less than 2%.

If we go to our financial results on page 6, let me start with providing a couple of data points from an income statement perspective at the top of the page. Revenues of over $1.1 billion in Q4 were higher than Q3, and the total of $4.2 billion for 2021, as I said earlier, was a record. In Q4, gross margins and earnings did moderate from the records that were set in Q3, but were still very high by any historical basis of measure. There were a few items of note in Q4, a couple of which were positive and a couple of which were negative, that I just wanna bring out now before I go into some more detailed operating information. A couple positives.

We did, as I mentioned earlier, close Boyd at the end of November, so we had the income from Boyd for one month, for the month of December. It was a positive contributor to us, notwithstanding around CAD 2 million of transaction costs and the accounting treatment that were recorded in Q4. The TriMark joint venture, as I mentioned earlier, has done well and has been an earnings contributor to us and had a similar level of profitability in Q4 as it did in Q3. Stock-based compensation was a negative as it had a mark-to-market expense of CAD 3 million in Q4 versus a recovery of CAD 3 million in Q3. That's really just a reflection of the change in our share price, the increase in our share price during Q4.

Lastly, we had a CAD 2.6 million pre-tax non-cash impairment for one of our Canadian energy units. This is the only item that we do an add back when we distinguish between adjusted and unadjusted results. From a cash flow perspective, we used CAD 136 million due to an increase in working capital. This was to build an inventory within the service centers and steel distributor segments. It's not so much on tonnage, and it's more a reflection of the cost of inventory. There was also a seasonal dynamic in accounts receivable, which came down due to the lower sales volume and higher collections in December. There was CAD 157 million used for cash related to the Boyd acquisition.

Most of the purchase price was related to tangible net assets with inventory of about CAD 56 million, receivables 54, property, plant, and equipment of CAD 39 million, less around CAD 25 million of payables. CapEx was CAD 9 million for the quarter, and this continues to be modest. As I said earlier, we'll increase our CapEx going into 2022, and it should be closer to CAD 50 million for the year 2022, with a continuing emphasis on more value-added equipment. From a balance sheet perspective, towards the bottom of the page, our borrowings went from net cash of CAD 42 million at the end of September to net debt of CAD 162 million at the end of December.

The biggest item in this CAD 200 million swing was the use of capital on the closing of the Boyd Metals acquisition at the end of November. Our liquidity of CAD 495 million, which I mentioned before, is very strong, and our credit metrics are in really good shape. Lastly, we've declared our quarterly dividend for CAD 0.38 per share. We shift to page seven and talk a little bit more about each of the individual business segments. Let's start with the service centers. They did exceptionally well in Q4. Again, revenues were up to CAD 780 million in Q4, which is a bit of an increase from Q3 as demand remains strong.

Tons were down due to the seasonal dynamic in December, which we typically see at that time of year, but some of that December dynamic was offset by the contribution of the Boyd volumes in the month. Overall, Boyd should represent around 10% of our total service center volumes in a typical month, and so it will be a meaningful contributor for us. Average price realizations were up 6% in Q4 versus Q3. Margins came down from the 31% that we saw in Q3 to 26% in Q4, but they still remain well above historical averages, both in percentage terms and dollar per ton terms. Bottom line results for our service centers were another strong earnings quarter with EBIT of CAD 109 million.

In energy, we are seeing positive market sentiment as well as the impact from the removal of our OCTG line pipe businesses. Our energy revenues were comparable in Q4 versus Q3, but we generated higher margins and earnings. I've used the cliché before, but it truly is doing more with less. Our same-store revenues from the field stores were up in Q4 versus Q3, and our energy margins of 27% were very strong. In fact, slightly higher than those in our service center segments. This highlights the margin in earnings drag, not to mention the volatility that was created by the now divested OCTG line pipe businesses. Going forward, we expect the energy field stores to generate a similar margin or return profile to that of our service centers over a cycle. Distributors had another very good quarter.

The revenues were contained at a comparable level in Q4 versus Q3, but margins and earnings did moderate due to a change in market conditions. That said, the current margins and earnings remain above historical averages, and the backlog of business is continuing to be realized into Q1 2022. If we carry on to page eight, I want to show this inventory trend slide as a frame of reference around the business transformation that we've made over the last three years. If you look back to late 2018 and early 2019, we carried about CAD 1 billion of inventory, but around half of it was energy, as you see depicted in the red bar. Today, our energy business is closer to 12% of the total inventory position of about CAD 1 billion.

At the same time that we pulled capital out of energy, we reinvested in our other segments. In the fourth quarter, we added to the service centers with the Boyd acquisition, as I mentioned before, which is around $50 million of inventory, plus the inventory in both service centers and distributors built with the cost of inventory growth. This realignment has resulted in more effective and efficient capital utilization as we put our money into higher and better uses. In the service center segment, the increase is in dollar cost rather than tons, as we continue to hold our inventory levels in check and focus on maintaining high inventory turns.

I'd like to commend our business unit leaders for their exceptional and ongoing work in working capital management through this market upswing. To put a little bit of this in context, in 2018, we had a comparable amount of total revenues to our 2021 revenues, but almost double the earnings in 2021 versus 2018. In addition, between 2018 and 2021, we've grown the service center business through acquisitions, and steel prices have more than doubled. The total inventory is still only about CAD 1 billion, which is the same level that we saw in 2018. As a result of the much higher profitability in 2021 versus 2018, and a really strong and continually disciplined working capital management, that has really resulted in exceptional return on capital in 2021.

If we are to roll this chart forward, a couple of observations. One, as steel prices moderate down, we expect to generate a fair amount of cash from the release of working capital that is tied up in higher cost inventory. As an example, you can see on this chart our historical service centers and steel distributors inventories were about CAD 300 million lower in past periods than they are today. As we've said in the past, our business is countercyclical, and we do generate a lot of cash from working capital when the cycle moderates. The second item, as we think about this chart on a roll-forward basis, is we are continuing to look at opportunities to grow via acquisition. If we go to page nine, you can see the overall impact on capital utilization and returns.

When we benchmark ourselves against our competitors, we generate top quartile returns over a cycle with an overall goal around 15% EBIT return. We have far exceeded that on average, and we far exceeded it in 2021. As you can see on the red line, 2021 has been off the charts with a year-to-date average of over 50%. As I mentioned before on the earlier chart, this is really a function of really strong discipline in terms of working capital management at the same time that the cycle has had really strong results. It wasn't just a function of market conditions. It was the market conditions in combination with the working capital discipline that has been applied over the last period of time.

Equally as important to the percentage returns are that in Q4 we were able to actually redeploy capital in effective ways. Our invested capital is now around CAD 1.4 billion, and we have additional flexibility to continue to explore other investment opportunities. That being said, we will remain disciplined with respect to those opportunities and only pursue those that meet our financial and operating criteria. In closing, on behalf of John and other members of the management team, I would like to express our appreciation to everyone within the growing Russel family. I believe that we have demonstrated significant progress and results through 2021, and we look forward to advancing the business in the years ahead. That concludes my introductory remarks. Operator, if you can now open the line for questions, that would be appreciated.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your touchtone phone. You will then hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star followed by two. If you're using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please lift the handset before pressing any keys. Please go ahead and press star one now if you have a question. Your first question will be from Michael Doumet at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Michael Doumet
Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

Hey, good morning, John and Marty. Congrats on the quarter and the strong close to 2021.

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Thanks, Michael.

Michael Doumet
Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

First question, can you provide some color on the buildup in inventories for steel distributor, and maybe your expectations on how quickly you can turn that inventory?

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Thanks, Michael. This is John. Yeah, we did have a buildup in inventory in steel distributors, predominantly in our Canadian division through Wirth, which does sell the vast majority in a back-to-back situation, so it's pre-sold. The timing of coming into the docks with the backup at the port did create some of that build. We anticipate the capital release. We're starting to see it now and continue through Q1, maybe into the first month of Q2. We should see this pretty strong release there as that's now become inventory turning into receivables. We think that's just a bit of a phenomenon due to the backup at the port.

Michael Doumet
Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

Makes sense. Maybe just a higher-level question, and this goes back to your page nine, Marty. You know, obviously, this goes without saying, you know, it's been an incredible year for Russel, and naturally I would think that the 2021 EPS is going to be a challenge to replicate. I'm hoping maybe you pity us analysts here who have to provide some EPS forecasts. Maybe just help us kind of think about the earnings power for Russel. I mean, historically, you know, Russel's return on invested capital has averaged about 15%. Maybe that's a little higher now given the changes you've made, you know, particularly on the energy side.

As steel prices moderate here from their highs, you know, should we think about, you know, earnings kind of coming back towards something that's more reflective of that 15% or just any guidelines there would be helpful?

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Sure. Let me give. It's a really good question, and I think it goes to my comment earlier about the business does look very different today than it did a year or two years ago. That's not just a function of the steel market, that's a function of the transformation that we've made. A couple of data points. One, you talked about the 15%. It's actually closer to 20% of what we've realized on average over the last five or so years. That being said, the drag that went with the OCTG line pipe business cost us about three basis points. So that 20% return would have been closer to 23% if not for the drag of the OCTG line pipe business.

Then you layer on some of the additional initiatives that we've deployed capital. We've done some value add. We're doing more value add equipment. Those projects are incredibly lucrative from a return perspective, but individually, they've got three-year type paybacks. We did the Boyd acquisition. I think we did that at a fair value that's gonna generate an appropriate return for us as well, given our metrics. I think when we, you know, using your data points historically, all other things being equal, the go forward returns should be better than the historical returns by a meaningful amount given the changes that have taken place within the portfolio. Plus, we're continuing to look at opportunities going forward. The story isn't completely written yet at this point in terms of changes that we've made to the portfolio.

Michael Doumet
Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

That's perfect. Thank you.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Great. Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Frederic Bastien at Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Frederic Bastien
Managing Director and Analyst, Raymond James

Hi. Good morning, guys. As expected, the margins on metal service center side and steel distributors came off their peak levels in Q4. You noted and I also noted that there was a considerable improvement in the margins on the energy product side. You quoted 27%, which was considerably more than I was expecting. Can you provide a bit more color there?

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Yeah. Fred, when we pulled out the OCTG line pipe, again, much lower margin business, you pull that out and you look at our energy field store business, it really looks and feels like our service centers from margin perspective, earnings perspective, inventory turns perspective. It manages capital very similar to our service centers. Again, as Marty said, you know, actually maybe you got smaller there, but we're doing more with less. Again, that is gonna be a pretty consistent reflection of our service centers, given the cyclical nature of the steel business and the energy business. We think that that's gonna give us a more normalized earnings bandwidth over the cycle and take out some of the volatility we would see from the OCTG line pipe.

Frederic Bastien
Managing Director and Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. I mean, your banner in 2021 was pretty much the result of very strong steel prices and all the good initiatives you had on the go. Energy products was not a big contributor to that. How's your outlook for that particular business in 2022?

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Directionally positive. Fred, we actually saw that during 2021, not in a step function change, but from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, there was a noticeable uptick, both in terms of top line and bottom line results for our field store businesses, and we're seeing that trend continuing into 2022. You know, one of the things that was interesting for us is when we kinda compare, you know, 2021 with about CAD 4.2 billion worth of revenues to 2018, which also had about CAD 4.2 billion worth of revenues. In 2018, there was much more contribution out of the energy part of the business.

One of the things that we're expecting going forward is that energy did better during 2021, but there's still more upside associated with that business. We saw that with the progress during the year. The run rate at the end of the year was better than the run rate at the beginning of the year. Notwithstanding the cycle that we always see in some parts of our business, that really wasn't kicking in all cylinders in 2021. We're expecting a better 2022 out of our energy business than we did in 2021.

Frederic Bastien
Managing Director and Analyst, Raymond James

Okay, thanks. Thanks, Marty. [audio distortion] caught on to the inventory build on the steel distributor side. Can you confirm that this is all pre-sold, you're not gonna see any pressure from sort of the movement, the volatility you're seeing in prices? How quickly should we expect this inventory to be translating to sales?

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

On the Canadian side, it's 90%+ sold back to back. We get confirmed selling prices on that, so the volatility is very low on that side. The U.S. is more transactional. They're not the big user of capital there. They've maintained their capital and their inventory levels at historic levels during this. I think you'll see during Q1 maybe a little bit of a lingering effect into April for that to turn back into cash and to bring that inventory level back in line for what it has been historically.

Frederic Bastien
Managing Director and Analyst, Raymond James

Okay, great. John, while I have you, sheet prices have come off their highs, but plate continues to show relative strength, and that's helped restore the premium that plate has historically held over HRC. What's providing more support to plate than it does for sheet?

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

You know, I think sheet actually was overpriced, and I think it's probably overcorrected on the downturn just a little bit. Plate is holding very strong. The demand is very strong right now for the plate products. We have seen some softening, anticipate a little bit of softening in plate, not as dramatic as the sheet pricing. But again, the lack of imports and the domestic mill is maintaining a pretty full run rate right now at the mill level with what we're seeing in all the end use markets that we use. It's again our big plate users. We feel pretty bullish that plate will continue to get back into balance, as you mentioned, Fred, of plate pricing to coil. The hot rolled coil will probably come, you know, flatline, maybe come up a little bit.

Plate may come down a little bit, but overall we see it as pretty solid.

Frederic Bastien
Managing Director and Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. Good.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Fred, just to.

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Go ahead, Marty.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Sorry, just to refine one comment earlier, just a little bit more information. When you're asking about the distributors and the inventory, and John was talking about the worst of the Canadian part of our business, where it's really back to back and there's just a timing dynamic attached to that with relatively low risk. That part of our inventory is about 70% of the inventory, so it's the vast majority of where that inventory is. When you see the shift from September to December in terms of steel inventories, excuse me, distributors inventories, that is really that part of the business. It's relatively low risk.

Frederic Bastien
Managing Director and Analyst, Raymond James

Okay, cool. Now we're halfway through Q1. I mean, you had a stellar year. I think Q1 is still from last year, from a year ago, is a relatively easy comp, but it's gonna get tougher and tougher. Any color you can provide us or guideposts you can provide us with respect to where you expect sales and perhaps margins to settle in Q2 and heading into Q2? Sorry, in Q1 and heading into Q2.

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Yes. Thus far coming out the gate, again, it's gonna be very comparable, maybe slightly better. Demand is stronger than we saw in Q1 of a year ago. Barring some of the temporary interruptions that we've seen, you know, buyers are waiting to the last minute trying to make sure they're getting to the bottom of pricing. If you read any of the industry commentary, and some of the articles are talking about buying strikes, which typically means they're over-inventoried. You've also had the interruptions from Omicron, where plants have been shut down temporarily for four or five days. You've seen other delays just for lack of employment there. Some pretty severe weather events from the Southern U.S. all the way through Canada, including what's going on in BC.

Those are temporary interruptions, and we think those will settle out. There's probably some pent-up demand there as well. Overall we feel like, you know, Q1 will be very comparable. Again, I think that the earnings potential and the revenue potential will probably be a bit stronger.

Frederic Bastien
Managing Director and Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. Thanks for that color. I'll pass it on to others. Thanks.

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Thanks, Fred.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question will be from Devin Dodge at BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Devin Dodge
Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to, you know, start maybe with the dividend. Look, your balance sheet, Marty, I'd agree with you, it seems like it's in really great shape. You know, you seem to be constructive on the outlook for the business in 2022. Now in the past, I think Russel's targeted a payout ratio of around 80% over the cycle. Now should we be expecting Russel to start, you know, bumping up the dividend? You know, is there a willingness to do that, or should we be recalibrating maybe to another target for shareholder distributions?

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Our focus right now is keeping our financial flexibility so that we can be opportunistic with situations that present themselves. That's how we think about our capital structure right now. It's obviously a cyclical business, and sometimes the best opportunities are when the cycle turns down. We wanna make sure that we have really good flexibility to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves. If we don't see the right opportunities in terms of M&A, then we'll reconsider capital return scenarios at that point. Right now our focus is really about maintaining our dry powder, keeping our flexibility, and keeping our eyes open to look at opportunities to generate appropriate returns on capital through growth opportunities.

Devin Dodge
Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Thanks for that. You mentioned M&A I think a few times already, including on the last answer there. Just can you comment on how that M&A pipeline, you know, looks right now, and can you know, give us a sense what seller expectations are like, and if that bid-ask spread has kind of widened out or given some of the strong profits across the sector in 2021?

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Well, you know, there's activity that is out there. We are seeing a deal flow. We were seeing deal flow through 2021, and we're seeing deal flow and opportunities in early 2022. That being said, we are extremely selective. In spite of, you know, a fair number of opportunities that we looked at in 2021, we found one that met our criteria and met the vendor's expectation as well. There's a lot of dancing that takes place in order to find those right opportunities. It's hard to handicap exactly how things will shake out other than we are seeing deal flow. We saw deal flow last year. We're continuing to see it this year. We are optimistic that we will find opportunities, but we're not driven to do something for the sake of doing it.

It has to meet our criteria.

Devin Dodge
Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Makes sense. Thanks for that. This kind of ties into one of John's answers earlier. You know, typically, in markets where steel prices are falling or at least look vulnerable for a pullback, I think some of your smaller service center competitors, you know, push hard to kind of lower their inventory position. Now, this cycle's obviously a little bit different for a lot of reasons, but you know, can you share with us what you're seeing on the competitor front for the service center business as we think about industry conditions for 2022?

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Sure. Really, you kind of hit on something there. This is a very different cycle. If you remember going through 2021, it was really, service centers were extremely thin on inventory, had a hard time getting inventory. Going into Q4, we saw that start to rebound and people get to more historical levels of their inventory. In a traditional downturn, a historical downturn, we've seen big inventory bulges in the system. Those are not there right now, that we're seeing broad-based across the board. The inventory levels are at a very, very reasonable turn level. We're not seeing as much pressure there. We do see some of the service centers that, you know, they may be selling around their high-priced inventory and not catch up in time. There'll be some short-term inventory price pressure.

We don't see it as we did if you go back to the 2008, 2009 period where, again, everybody was sitting on the extended inventory and having to work through it. We're not seeing that kind of pressure that we've seen other times.

Devin Dodge
Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Thanks for that. Maybe just one last quick one. Marty, are you able to frame? Look, there's a lot of moving pieces in that pricing basket that you guys kind of sell into. Can you frame how selling prices in January have compared to last year, either, you know, relative to the Q4 average or year-over-year basis or however you wanna frame it? Just any color there?

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Sure. Within service centers, our price realizations have held for the last number of months on an average basis. Obviously, different products are moving in different directions. If you look across the portfolio, it's held for a number of months. The margin compression that we talked about and the moderation that we've talked about, that's really a function of prices were holding, but the higher cost inventory, that's kind of takes a while to roll through the system, that was flowing into cost of goods sold. That was sort of the dynamic of, you know, revenues were going sideways, the costs were coming up because of the lag effect that flows through, and that's where the margin moderation was kicking in.

Devin Dodge
Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Thanks for that. I'll turn it over.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Okay. Thanks, Doug.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Michael Tupholme at TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Michael Tupholme
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Thanks. Good morning. Maybe just to pick up on that last question that you just addressed, Marty. Are we now in the fourth quarter in an equilibrium as it relates to the higher costs flowing in and the margins that was generating in service centers? Or does that still play out further in the first quarter such that we should be thinking about some further margin compression? You're obviously still well above your historical averages in even the fourth quarter in service centers. Just trying to look at how we should think about that margin trending going forward here in the near term.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Yeah. Your analysis is correct. There is a lag effect of how that all flows through as markets are moving through. Not to be overly simplistic, but, you know, prices that are in the market take a while before they show up in our inventory, and then they show up in our inventory before they show up in our cost of goods sold. We have different timing dynamics about that lead time between Canada and the U.S. By definition, when we see posted rates for steel prices, that doesn't flow all the way through on day one.

There is that lag effect, which basically means some of that steel price compression that we've seen over the last little bit, that won't be flowing into our cost of goods sold in a meaningful way for a couple of months, and it'll be coming in phases into the U.S. first and then into Canada second. That migration in terms of costs, they'll start coming down over the next two-four months, all other things being equal.

Michael Tupholme
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. That's helpful. It feels like or it seems like there's sort of some different dynamics playing out with respect to margins across the various segments. I think generally speaking, what you just described should sort of apply across the business. Obviously there are different products in different segments and you're, you know, and the way the steel distributor segment works with respect to bringing some product, you know, in sometimes from overseas, you know, there's different dynamics. I'm just wondering, as we look at the margin profile in both energy products and steel distributors, any commentary you can provide around how to think about the progression there, vis-a-vis what you just described in service centers in the near term?

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Service centers and steel distributors will move very similarly. You'll see the similar pricing dynamic. They'll come off a little bit more and more closer to historical levels probably in distributors. When you look at energy, keep in mind that, you know, 2021 was not a banner year. Things are starting to improve. Rig counts are improving. Oil prices are obviously improving. They're actually gonna see some margin improvement, we think, in 2022. We saw that in the fourth quarter. We think we'll continue to see that in the first and second quarter. Again, all things remaining flat where they are today.

Michael Tupholme
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. That's helpful. Just to clarify that, on your comments on energy, John, I get year-over-year improvement for full year 2022 versus 2021 because earlier in the year in 2021, the margins were not particularly robust relative to what you just did in the fourth quarter. You think we can see some further margin improvement in energy products in the early part of 2022 versus what you just did in the fourth quarter of 2021. Is that what I'm understanding?

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

There could be some. Again, it'd be modest. There could be some. Again, keep in mind as we've fleshed out now the strategic line pipe was predominantly done in Q4. It should be similar, modest or up going forward.

Michael Tupholme
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. You mentioned, Marty, a couple times the CapEx expectation for 2022 going up to about CAD 50 million. The change versus the CAD 29 million in 2021, is that entirely driven by investments in value-added processing equipment and projects, or is there anything else going on there?

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Yeah. It's what you said. It's all discretionary and the incremental is all associated with virtually all related to projects that have attractive return profiles attached to them.

Michael Tupholme
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. Perfect. Just for, I mean, I don't know if we can just look at the change in CapEx to get a sense for this. It certainly sounds like heavier investment in value-added processing in 2022. Can you just give a bit of background there? I mean, I know this has been a strategic priority for the company for a long time. What sort of how do we explain sort of the ramp up? You know, are there just I mean, is it a function of the balance sheet? Is it, you know. I guess just to understand what sort of why now the sort of the acceleration.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

It's not a function of the balance sheet. I think consistent with value-added investing in value-added equipment has been a core part of our strategy. It doesn't happen with the flip of a switch. A lot of the projects that are coming to the table in 2022 were in the planning stage in 2021, in 2020. It takes a while for them to come to the table. It's really a function of we see some good opportunities, and some of them are just becoming available this year in terms of when all the planning made sense. It's really not driven by anything other than what is the right commercial time to be doing those sorts of projects. It's a multi-year journey for us.

You know, this is not something that is new for 2022. It's just we found more projects that are making sense for this year, and the timing comes together. We've been doing value-added projects for several years now. This is just, and if we kind of roll past 2022, like we're probably gonna see some additional investments continuing in 2023 and 2024 as well. This isn't just a one-year phenomenon for us in terms of identifying opportunities on value-added equipment.

Michael Tupholme
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. Perfect. Can you comment on anything you're seeing in terms of wage inflationary pressures and labor availability? What sort of an impact do you think that those factors could have in 2022, and how you're managing those factors?

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Yeah. You've got the inflationary pressures out there. Again, obviously, you're seeing that come out within the recent reports. We'll see some wage pressure. Again, keep in mind how much of our compensation again is variable. We've seen a strong variable component this year. As we look through, though, there will be some wage inflation there. It'll be somewhat of a reset, industry-wide in what the cost parameters are. Again, I don't see, again, a huge impact, but again, the wage pressure is there, and it's real. When we talk about finding employment, employees, those type of things, it is a challenging marketplace right now.

We've been successful again running those decentralized models where we have them out in the field, so they're dealing with it on an individual basis, along with our corporate HR group that's working very diligently to make sure we're fully staffed. You have that based on the specific geography that you're in. Overall, we're not seeing enormous pressure in that area. It's again more targeted to where we're seeing pressure. We're not having problems filling their staffing requirements at this point in time.

Michael Tupholme
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. That's helpful. I'll get back in the queue. Thank you.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Great. Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question will be from Devin Dodge at BMO. Please go ahead.

Devin Dodge
Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Hey, good morning. I was just wondering if you could provide any thoughts on the capital structure over the coming year, just recognizing your strong liquidity position and the fact that the call premium on the 26 bond steps down next month, and your 25 bonds are also callable in October. Just any color on that would be very helpful. Thank you.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Sure. You spoke a little too quickly there. I couldn't quite follow what your question was.

Devin Dodge
Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Sure. Yeah. I was just wondering if you had any thoughts on the capital structure over the coming year, just recognizing your strong liquidity position, and your 2026 bonds, the call premium steps down next month, and the 2025 bonds are callable in October.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Right. As I mentioned to somebody who asked a question earlier in terms of our capital allocation, we like maintaining our flexibility and our dry powder, so we have no plans right now on changing anything in terms of our capital allocation. You're correct that those notes do step down in terms of the call premium next month. We haven't made any decision on what to do on that front.

Devin Dodge
Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Understood. Thank you very much.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you do have a question, you will need to please press star one on your telephone keypad. Your next question is from Alexander Jackson at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Alexander Jackson
Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah, morning, guys. Most of you might have been asked, but I'm just curious, in terms of the steel distributors segment, what's visibility like right now for 2022? Like, are you still seeing those opportunities that you had in 2021 in terms of, you know, generating strong margins and strong volumes?

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

The volume, the volumes haven't changed a lot. Margins will, again, predominantly from the U.S. side, we'll see some compression. Margins will be pretty stable on the Canadian side. Again, we'll watch what the pricing does. Dynamics have shifted a little bit as to supply and supply chain and where it's coming from. But overall, again, demand is very, very stable for them.

Alexander Jackson
Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Got it. Thanks.

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Yeah. Thanks, Alex.

Operator

Thank you. Next is a follow-up from Michael Tupholme at TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Michael Tupholme
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Thanks. Yeah, just two follow-ups. First off, in the outlook, in the release, when talking about improved availability of steel continuing to 2022, you do note, though, that there are still some constraints, specifically COVID-related staffing constraints, but also transportation issues. The comment about transportation issues, is that reflective of what we're seeing just sort of recently now, in the last few weeks here? Or is this something broader that you're referring to?

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Look, you've got the transitory issue that's in the recent weeks that I think will obviously abate then sometime in the future. You've also got the freight issues with the cost of freight coming in from overseas on our shipping. Those costs have inflated, and so we can pass those through typically. That does occasionally have some strain on the lead times at the docks where there's been issues unloading. It's taking a little longer to get material than it has in the past. That was our primary point there.

Michael Tupholme
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks. Then, secondly, wanted to go back to something I think you mentioned earlier on the call, Marty. If I got this correctly, I thought I heard you say that you may not be done with portfolio changes. I just wanna clarify. I think you were also talking about M&A as part of that comment. Is this a comment about potentially seeing sort of more transformational changes like you undertook with respect to getting out of OCTG and line pipe and reassessing the overall business and the portfolio in that sense? Are you more talking about you know, growing the business through M&A? I'm just trying to understand sort of what the comment was there.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Thanks, Mike. Actually, that's a good question. Good clarification. It's the latter. We're not looking at hiving anything off. That was done last year with OCTG line pipe, and we're done with that exercise. This is more about growing within our existing portfolios.

Michael Tupholme
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, Mr. Juravsky, we have no further questions. Please proceed.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Great. Thank you, operator. Thank you everybody for joining our call today. We very much appreciate it. If you have any follow up questions, just feel free to reach out at any time. Otherwise, we look forward to staying in touch, during the quarter, and we'll touch base with everybody soon. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. At this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

Thanks. Thanks, operator. [cross talk]

Operator

You're welcome.

Martin Juravsky
EVP and CFO, Russel Metals

All right. Bye-bye.

John Reid
President and CEO, Russel Metals

Bye.

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