Earnings Call: Q2 2018

Aug 10, 2018

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the 2018 Second Quarter Results Conference Call for Russell Metals. Today's call will be hosted by Ms. Marion Britton, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Mr. John Reed, President and Chief Executive Officer of Russell Metals Inc. Today's presentation will be followed by a question and answer period. I will now turn the meeting over to Ms. Marianne Britton. Please go ahead. Good morning, everyone. Hopefully, you have the slide deck we set out. I will start on Page 3, reading the cautionary statement. Certain statements made on this conference call constitute forward looking statements or information within the meaning of applicable securities laws, including statements as to future capital expenditures, our outlook, the availability of our future financing and our ability to pay dividends. Forward looking statements relate to future events or our future performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are necessarily based on estimates and assumptions that while considered reasonable by us, inherently involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward looking statements. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in our forward looking statements, including as a result of the risk factors described below in our MD and A and in our annual information form. While we believe that the expectations reflected in our forward looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct, and our forward looking statements included in this call should not be unduly relied upon. These statements speak only as to the date of this call, and except as required by law, we do not assume any obligation to update our forward looking statements. If you can flip to page 5 of the slide deck, I will speak to our Q2 results. We're obviously very happy with our EPS reported in the Q2 of $1.07 which compares to $0.52 in Q2 20 17 $6.2 which brings our 6 month earnings to 1.69 dollars compared to $1 at this point last year. Free cash flow, very strong, dollars 2.37 per share and for the 6 that was for the 6 months and for the 6 months of last year was $1.53 Another number that is a very strong number is our return on equity at 23%. In addition, we declared our dividend of $0.38 for the quarter. Turning to Slide 6, I'll speak a little to the market conditions. Market conditions in the quarter was rising steel price and strong good demand. We think that steel prices have peaked and will fluctuate a bit in the second half of the year. The demand continues to be stable as we see it at this point in time. Within our metal service centers, we had a revenue increase of 35%. The metal the increase was made up of a average selling price increase of 17% compared to Q2 2017 14% compared to Q1 2018. The other portion of that quarter over quarter 35% increase related to tons. So on a same store basis, our tons were up 9%, which is a heritage of our competitors as we know the information that we know. And we also had 2 acquisitions since Q2 Q2 2017 being Color Steel and DeBose, which we bought in Q2 2018. They represented another 8% increase in tonnes so that we are actually up in our tonnes year over year 17% if you include our acquisitions. Rig count in the U. S. Is up and in Canada also is up year over year. Just to remind you that the Q2 is a seasonally lower period for activity within Canada with the spring thaw and that is reflected in our numbers related to OCTG, although our NG Products segment did increase 8%, which was driven by activity in our oilfield stores, both in Canada and in the U. S. There is a lot of uncertainty out there. We're very happy with our operations, our employees who have guided us through this uncertain period with the U. S. Tariffs on June 1 and effective July 1, Canada put in tariff, which we will continue to monitor where those tariffs take us as negotiations with NAFTA have continued on and presumably tariffs will change as NAFTA is further settled. Turning to Page 7. We have our 6 month numbers against the last 4 years annual numbers and also 6 months last year. If you look at our revenues, you can see that we're tracking consistent with our 2014 level of activity. The two lines that are of important interest is the EBITDA as a percent of revenue at 8.3%, highest we've had on this chart a very high number and similar EBITDA at 9.2%. So we're actually tracking ahead of our 2014 numbers on those two lines. Even though we're at the same revenue levels. We're making more earnings on the same dollar revenue. Our working capital has increased due to the use of the additional revenue, our AR similar to 2014 inventories are higher as steel prices are higher at this point than they were during 2014 year end. And you'll see that our net working capital in metals is a bit higher than we were at 2014, tracking along as would be expected. Turning over to the Page 10, just speak a little bit about the working capital changes and use of cash for working capital needs. I mentioned previously that we did have cash from operations, strong cash from operations you can see for the 6 months, dollars 167,000,000 We have used $162,000,000 in the 6 month period. For inventories, it went up $118,000,000 in the quarter. Receivables didn't go up as much because our Q1 is very active in the Energy segment, but we have got our use of cash for receivables this year has been $94,000,000 So at this point, we've used 100 and $3,000,000 of working cash for working capital purposes to grow the business consistent with our models that when revenues go up, activities, earnings go up, we do need to have cash to fund our working capital. You'll note the purchase of business 36.8 percent for the it was in the Q2, that's De Beaux Steel. I'd recommend anybody that wants a little more details on that to look at the notes to the financial statements because there was no AP in that number, which makes it probably a slightly higher than anybody's modeling our number to be. Turning forward to Page 14. This is the page that gives the breakdown by segment of what happened in the quarter year to date. As I mentioned previously, 35% increase in revenues in metal service centers, it brings us to 27% year to date. The interesting increase in earnings or operating profit at metals, it's more than double, 135 percent actual increase. And going down to the because the Life Below gross margin was at 25.5%. Rising steel market resulted in us being able to capture good profit on our sales and that we do expect will come down over the next half of the year due to the fact that our inventory price has come up as we had to replace inventory that we had on hand. The quarter we ended up with operating profit as a percent of revenues at 10.2%, very strong number for a metal service center operation year to date at 8.5%. Turning over to Energy Products segment, the increase was 8%. And as I previously mentioned, mainly field stores drove that number. We did have an increase in our operating profit. And then going down to our percentage lines, you'll note that the mix has driven the gross margin to be 20.9% in the quarter. It's actually up from Q1 and that was because of less OCTG sales and higher field store sales. We do anticipate that number will come down in the next quarter due to the return of OCTG sales and we do have some large line pipe sales that are at lower margins in the second half of the year. The other segments, Steel Distributors, small, their revenue actually has been lower at this point for the year. We expect it to be slightly higher for the next two quarters as with supply change in relation to tariffs and where people are purchasing, certain purchases into Canada are coming from outside North America and we expect some volume increases there. Those operations were able to maximize their gross margin and reported 26.8% gross margin in the quarter. And they also did had a strong gross margin earlier in the year to bring it to 24.2 percent for the 6 months. Similarly, we do anticipate that will come down as they replace their inventory in the second half of the year. So we expect this division, even though it's small, the revenues will be up, but the gross margins will be down, still resulting in some good operating profits. You'll notice they had a 50% increase in operating profits in the quarter and they delivered a 16.6% operating profit as a percentage of revenues. Turning to Page 20, I'll just make comment on capital expenditure. Basically similar to prior quarters. We are spending money on value added processing and we do anticipate that our capital expenditures for the year will be approximately $10,000,000 higher than our depreciation for the year. We currently have capital expenditures of $20,000,000 which compares to $14,000,000 at this time last year and our depreciation for the 6 months is $14,000,000 So we're on track to what we anticipate as additional capital expenditures to grow the value added processing. Turning to Page 21, you can see the breakout of the inventory numbers. The numbers are up mainly driven by average cost of inventory. There is some tons increase in the numbers also, but the higher price of inventory has driven that. Energy products being a low point coming off of their seasonal low there at 2. We're hoping that will come up during the second half of the year as the inventories go into drill rig activity. Still distributors will continue to have higher revenues also. So we would like to see those turns come up slightly in those two operations in the second half of the year. Those are my comments. I'm going to turn it back to the operator and we'll take questions. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and and Your first question comes from Derek Spronck, RBC. Derek, please go ahead. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just with regards to the tariffs and the changes in the supply chain, do you think the direct impact in the repositioning is largely done at this point or is it still kind of being played out right now? It's continuing to play out and evolve as again and there may be changes moving from tariffs to quotas with certain countries. As see, the U. S. And Europe seem to be headed down that path very quickly. Canada is now looking at Section 55, where they may be taking additional tariff positions towards the rest of the world or quota positions. So again, I think that it's kind of laid the groundwork, but it's definitely going to be something that continues to evolve over the next probably 6 months minimum and we'll see changes to that. Okay. And are you seeing or is there any concern and I Canada would have some countermeasures in place, but with import still going into the U. S, now with the tariffs, is that import steel, foreign import steel looking for a new home? And are you seeing an increase in import steels coming into Canada? Sure. Stuff is not able to go to the U. S. Anymore or if it's not, although flat roll is showing up in the U. S. Because the flat roll price for the world price, actually with the tariff involved, is still below the U. S. Number. But we are seeing different trade channels that are appearing for Canada with higher volumes. And so again, Canada is looking to take action on those, and that's currently being discussed, but it is it has provided us opportunity through our distribution and service center divisions that we see some opportunities there. We'll probably have some growth in the quarter due to products that are not made in Canada that are coming from other parts of the world. Is there any concern though that the potential increased supply coming into Canada would pressure steel pricing in Canada? Prices went up. Obviously, in Canada, it's disconnected somewhat from the U. S. Price. Typically, or historically, it's been take the U. S. Price currency adjusted, and you came up with your Canadian number for various products. We've now seen some of that go above. Plate demand is very, very strong in Canada and the U. S. Plate prices, currency adjusted are higher in Canada than they are in the U. S. Now. Coil and HSS type products are well below Canadian pricing currency adjusted compared to the U. S. So we've seen a disconnect to some degree that we actually talked about last quarter as well. And I think we'll continue to see that as the world market brings more into Canada and it becomes much more different planes than it has been historically. Okay. And then just one more for me before I turn it over. You indicated that you're expecting pricing to be relatively flat in the back half of the year. Any sort of view as of right now of what you're seeing in terms of pricing in 2019? Yes. We really don't look out that far. I mean, we're looking at pricing being relatively flat for the next quarter. The back half, we could see some softening, but we really don't go out that far as transactional nature as we are. Again, pricing is obviously scrap and steel are going to drive it along with energy prices. Questions. Thanks, Derek. Thank you. Your next question comes from Michael Tupholme, TD Securities. Michael, please go ahead. Thanks. With respect to the Energy Products segment, you mentioned that most of the growth there was from field stores. So is it fair to assume that, that was primarily volume as opposed to price that drove the year over year revenue gains in Energy Products? That's exactly right. And then how do we think about Energy Products revenue growth potential on a year over year basis in the back half given some of the changes in mix you've alluded to? Again, we're going to see a shift in the overall mix. I think we'll see again, we feel like it's going to be steady to slightly up based on rig counts and what we're seeing out there on overall growth with the large projects we have, though, in line pipe. Those will be again, obviously lift the revenue side, but they're at a much lower margin, also at a much lower operating cost. So there will be shift to the model, but I think we'll see a pretty significant lift Q3 and part of Q4 on that for that project going through. And sorry, John, are you talking year over year lift or relative to the Q2? Year over year. Okay, great. And then, Marion, I mean, you mentioned that really across all three of the main product categories or segments, you do expect margins gross margins to come down as you won't have the same sorts of holding gains in the back half as you saw in the second quarter. But can you maybe try to help us out maybe a little bit more detail around sort of the level of margin decline we can expect in the back half relative to what you saw in the Q2? Okay. I'll attempt to so the decline in energy products is really not related to raising prices as much as it will be related to mix and large project type line pipe sales. So it's a little different than what we would see in the other two segments. I think it will come down closer to the numbers that we've reported year to date for 2017. So that will just get the mix back in line and cover off those large orders. Within, dealers, they had the luxury having products that there was demand for. And similarly, I believe they could come back to numbers close to our 2017 numbers. The one that I don't think is going to come back as far is our metals service centers, where there continues to be we have pretty good demand for those products and it's probably going to range in the 22% to 23% would be my guess, which is should stay higher than we were at this point in 2017. The other factor though is with the price of steel being very high, we do bring a larger number to the EBIT line. Okay. And sorry, when you were talking about back to 2017 type levels, we should be focused on the 2017 year to date, so the first half of twenty seventeen's margin in both metal service centers and energy products? That's where I'm thinking. In Steel Distributors, their volumes will go up slightly. They may come off a bit more, but within energy products, I think that you're safe to use the year to date 2017 number. Okay. And where are you at now in service centers with in terms of the value added processing capabilities you've been adding over time? I mean is year to date through first half of twenty seventeen, you were at 22% gross margin in service centers. Is that sort of the normal run rate type of level that you can achieve in a stable steel pricing environment given the value added processing additions you've made over time? I think that's somewhere that range, yes. Okay. And then a little bit of discussion earlier about the tariffs. Wanted to ask you, John, how does the imposition of the steel tariffs in both the U. S. And Canada, how has that changed your view and your approach to M and A, if at all? It really hasn't changed our approach. I mean, we continue to we've all for 4 or 5 years now, we've said we would like to grow in the U. S. Again, we continue to be opportunistic when things appear that fit, whether it be a niche play or a good business in Canada. Obviously, Color Steel being the latest. We evaluate them based on the individual merit and what they look like at the time. So we try not to get caught up in the inflationary times that are going on with earnings, look at the cycles of what a business can do for our shareholders. And we have an evaluation metric that we go through, obviously, as well as does the company fit into our corporate culture. And has there been any change in the number of opportunities available, either more or less, given that we're in sort of a rapidly evolving environment? Absolutely. We're seeing a lot more activity right now. Your next question comes from Frederic Bastian, Raymond James. Frederic, please go ahead. Good morning, guys. It looks like your recent acquisitions are contributing nicely to your results. So I was hoping you could provide an update on your M and A efforts right now, especially in light of the recent trade tensions. Yes. Again, we're seeing a lot of activity, Frederick, both on the service center side, predominantly in the U. S. And in the energy side with fuel stores in the U. S. And in Canada. We're starting to see more and more activity on that. So it's something that we're very actively looking at right now, trying to find the right fit for Russell. Any other DuBose or potentially colored steels tuck in out there? Yes. I think there's tuck in opportunities out there. There's some larger opportunities that are out there as well. So again, I think that we'll continue to look for those and see if those opportunities present themselves before the end of the year. Okay. Can you confirm, Maren, there were no inventory impairment charges in Q2? There were some, I believe, in Q1, but nothing in Q2? No impairment charges, no. There wasn't. Okay, perfect. That's all I have. Thanks very much. Thanks, Greg. Thank you. Your next question comes from John Biggers. John, please go ahead. Hi. Just with the recent price increases around steel prices around 30% to 40%, are you having any problems with resistance in the marketplace with also getting your inventory up, finding source of supply and resistance with customers not wanting to buy? As far as our inventory, we're highly transactional. So we've not seen a whole lot of resistance there as we move to that through the market. Our competitors are doing the same. We have seen a little bit of apprehension on the customer side and how far they want to go out on their inventory positions as far as their finished goods in relation to are they able to do their transactions North American wide or globally. But overall, right now, in the industries we serve through the industrials, we've not seen much resistance. And you're not having any problems with much resistance. And you're not having any problems with credit people pushing out their receivables or payables to you guys, as far as because as far as because prices are up huge, are they not? I would say huge. I mean, I look around at the businesses with the mills, with Nucor, Mattel, Gerdau, all huge, huge earnings. But there's got to be some resistance in the marketplace with pricing, with the customers. I don't know how anybody can absorb a 35% increase in prices within the last year. Again, we're not seeing a lot of resistance. Our credit, we watch it and we have heightened our awareness on it to watch it more carefully. But our reserves are there, as you can see as well, that we're not seeing anything beyond what we've normally done. So again, we're not seeing the whole lot of pressure or resistance against that pricing right now because it's becoming a worldwide phenomenon. Right. Okay. Do you guys think that you'll increase your dividend a little bit more with the money that's coming in here at $1.69 already? You're paying out what, 38 times? You're paying out $1.52 you're halfway through the year, you're $1.69 We review it every quarter with the Board. Again, for the last several years, we have paid out in excess of 100% of our dividend. Our guide has always been that we'll be 80% over the cycle, which is typically a 5 year cycle. So again, we'll review it again with the Board at the end of next quarter. But at this point, we elected not to. There may be opportunities to do things in the marketplace through our value added processing or acquisitions that allow for a better position for shareholder equity. So we'll review it again with the Board next quarter. Okay. Fantastic. Thank you. Thank you. Your next question comes from Anoop Prihar, GMP Securities. Anoop, please go ahead. Good morning. John, I'm just curious to get your sense as to in terms of the strength in the Q2 numbers as well as the year to date numbers, how much of that do you think reflects just underlying strong GDP fundamental growth versus your customers still trying to position themselves to make sure they're on the right side of whatever happens on the tariff front? It's difficult to put an absolute quantum on that, but I think we've had the lift from the GDP. Obviously, the economy is very strong. If you go through every sector that we serve, everything is either very steady or increasing. So that's been good for us. You can see our increases in volumes. We think we've taken share through both our normal business channels and also the value added processing. So that's allowed us to grow as well. But overall, that one would be just it would be a guess. I was trying to quantify it right then. But there's still guys out there that you think are trying to position themselves just to make sure they don't get caught or whipsawed on the politics? Oh, sure. I mean, again, people are trying to play that pricing game and they have them. That's normal for our business. They're trying to outbuy the market. So I think there are people that you will see we've seen competitors running light on inventory. We've seen others out there trying to say, well, do we need to move south of the border? Do we need to move north of the border? And so how do we handle that? But we've not seen a big impact to our business at this point. Harley Davidson is a big news that's moved, but it's hard to believe that they weren't going to move that facility. So we've got one fairly large customer that may move from Canada to the U. S, but at this point, they've not made a decision. Your next question comes from Derek Spronck, RBC. Derek, please go ahead. Okay. Thank you. Just circling up on there was an inventory impairment charge. Just wondering where that stemmed from when considering that the increase in pricing there? Could you maybe I wouldn't Frederick could ask about write downs and I wasn't thinking about that one. That is the energy segment where we continue to deal with some of our old inventory that was for downhole drilling and that's what we have taken a bit of a reserve against that to continue to move that out and scrap it. Is that largely done now, do you think, Marion? It's an aging reserve that we look at the age of the inventory and then they're assessed a penalty on it each month based on the volume. So for the most part, we feel like we're under control with that compared to where we were especially in 'thirteen to 'fourteen with the shift in energy going from the the downhole into the fracking. But again, there will always have some of that moving around just in the bias with inventory that's left over from jobs. It is attributed to prices related to age of inventory and our desire to reduce the amount of our aged inventory. Okay. I got it. And then just one more on the there was another small impairment charges on the ERP system. Maybe a little bit of color on that as well would be helpful. Yes. We were yes, it was listed in there for last quarter. We shut down the ERP system that we were looking at going to the artificial intelligence to bring over our system to NewCoat. And so as we went through that, we just weren't getting the results we wanted with the tools. So we shut that program down and we're now investigating whether to go to a Canada program or looking at something that's more programmed in house. Okay, thanks. Thank you. If there's no further questions, I will thank all our employees for a great quarter, and we will speak to everyone next quarter. Have a good rest of the summer. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.