Good. How are you?
Good.
Good to see you.
You too. Is this good here?
Yeah, that's great. All right, so let's start.
Morning
State of the consumer, state of consumer health. Do you think there's been a shift to a softer spending environment recently?
I think the signals are quite clear that consumers are value conscious right now. Affordability is absolutely top of mind, but equally, health and wellness is. In many respects, I think that the consumer has found an opportunity in dairy to be able to meet those two needs. When I think about the consumer as a whole, value, affordability, wellness, dairy can certainly answer that need. When you think about Saputo in particular, and the portfolio that we have, the wide range of offerings, we can meet those value occasions multiple times a day and through the full spectrum from, call it the most refined fractions of foods and proteins, to everyday commodities as well.
I think that the consumer has sent us signals. Their procurement patterns are changing from the retail sector, from the out-of-home, if you want, in many respects, but we are able to adapt, and I think that that is what makes us fairly unique in our own space as well, is that very same adaptability.
Okay. We talked earlier today about protein preferences from consumers. I think the question I probably get most often about Saputo is what gives us confidence that there is so much more runway still to come with protein. Effectively, it boils down to, sticking with the baseball analogies, what inning are we in the protein movement? I suspect you are going to say early innings. What gives you the confidence in saying that this is a very durable, long-term dietary shift and not a two to four-year span before TikTok talks about something else?
We're at the bottom of the third.
All right. There we go.
No, to be fair, it is absolutely a structural shift. It's no longer a trend. Not just the word demand, but the actual utilization of the various protein fractions is in so many goods at this point. From the basic rehydration use to formulating in baked goods and cereals, in formulated foods for the medical space, for the elderly, all of the above. We absolutely have seen the benefits from a larger network of buyers coming to this space, from our traditional partners to brokers all over the world who are moving this in channels we never thought would exist. All of this to say we're in the early, I still believe we're in the earlier phases.
We're still in an environment whereby demand is outstripping supply, and that's structural issue and the bottleneck or rate-limiting step will continue to be cheese manufacturing. Yes, pricing is at an all-time high for many of the whey fractions and whey byproducts that there are, and I dare say we're a byproduct at this stage. But fundamentally, we do believe that we're in the early stages of a continued growth and innovation in this space.
Let's focus a bit more on specialty whey. I think this is a bit of a, it has mystique around it for investors. We hear so much and read so much about some of your customers' struggle to find specialty whey for the next three years, that supply is just locked up.
Yeah.
Maybe tell us a bit more about that. Any anecdotes you can share or anything you can help frame the level of imbalance of supply and demand in that category, and how much do you have ability to increase your supply?
Well, if I can, maybe just using ratios, I'll tell you that from a basic cheese consumption and demand, we're dealing with very low, low single digits, has been the growth chart for cheese for decades. Okay? Year-over-year has been fairly consistent. Now we're dealing with double-digit growth with, call it, specialized fractions of whey and proteins. So that imbalance will continue to occur for some time. Now, how we're going to get those two to be better aligned isn't going to be necessarily from a massive push in cheese making. You don't just go online and spend all that capital to create more cheese that doesn't have a home. But not all the whey today is in that specialized category. There is still some whey out there, including our very own at Saputo, that we're not extracting the full value of it.
It's in lower fractions or simpler products like what we call sweet whey powder, being the lowest of the commoditized products. Some of that solids content can move up the value chain, and I think that over the next couple of years, I think that's where meeting the demand is going to at least try to come from in greater extents. But there'll still be a disconnect fundamentally with the demand and the supply.
Okay. GLP-1s, I suspect you're very favorable on this trend generally, but how does it influence your strategy? Take this in whatever direction you like, product formulation, advertising, promotion. How do you think about it as a company?
Well, it's provided us new opportunities to interface with a very specific consumer segment. Yes, they're in many respects focused on protein, high quantities of protein, low calories. Yes, all these specialized proteins that we talked about, but it's not just that. There are other aspects of our portfolio that are quite complementary. Some of them include also high value or value-added milk, which are proteinated in many respects, cultured products such as yogurt and cottage cheese, all of which have always been and continue to be a big part of our portfolio. We are seeing time, attention, and dollars being spent to a greater extent in this area than would be in the indulgence side of our business, which would be the likes of ice cream mixes and things of that nature. But very complementary in nature.
We haven't seen really a shift in the coffee choices, if you like, of consumers because of GLP-1, which is a good thing based on the complementary products we bring to the coffee space and creams and/or others. In the end, I would say that it's helping us with our innovation pipeline, ensuring that we recognize this segment of consumers. But the other interesting thing with GLP-1s is the journey that they're on, because that journey isn't forever. There's a new segment of users, especially in the U.S., that we're starting to see very clear delineation with, which is it's very momentary in time. One month, two months of usage for specific occasions, if I can say it that way. Very targeted approach. Others in their journey are more prolonged in nature, but they go in and out of consuming different elements of our dairy cycle.
Okay.
Cheese as an example, which in the early days of GLP-1 users is typically not the number one item that they want to consume. But it does come back when they think about fulsome nutrition and not just targeted protein, as an example. Cheese tends to come back into the cycle. Sometimes it comes out of it. All of this kind of stuff is emerging. We are learning from it, we are innovating behind it. Fundamentally, I am going to call it a tailwind for us.
Yeah. It would take something quite remarkable to change our coffee consumption patterns, I think.
Possibly.
Perhaps those protein-infused cold foam shots are not so bad for you.
Yeah, I did not reference it. I was specifically talking about the fats and the creams that we put in, but absolutely, there has been a strong demand and pull in reformulating those beverages with protein. That is another example of all the channels where we never really thought we would see-
Yeah
grow, but it is growing in multiple geographies as well, not just North America.
Yeah. Okay. Let us talk about tariffs and trade, and I wonder what you can say is the impact from the latest round of tariff announcements. Obviously, a very dynamic space and lots of changes by the day or by the week, but how should investors think about that?
Yeah, and I think you have heard me say in the past that the various discussions that had been occurring to try to obtain a broader deal for the two countries, dairy was an element that needed to be refined, negotiated, and the irritants, as I call them, from the American administration, I think we had basically indicated that it will not be material for Saputo. Whatever decision that is made, the way we have integrated or actually not integrated our two businesses. We are 98% disconnected in our supply chains, north to south. So very independent choices, very independent operating models in nature. So we still believe that to be true should there be a deal that gets made in the future. The latest proclamation in particular has added another layer of dairy in the limelight, and that is primarily whey.
Yeah.
That is one of the items, though, that we do actually ship north and south. It is one of the very few aspects that we did provide some degree of integration. But the day that the proclamation was put forward, we have also found an alternative. So the need forced us to look at alternatives for processing of those same whey solids, and the net material impact for us is basically negligible, is what we are saying.
Okay. Very good. Okay. Let's go around the world here, start in Argentina. It felt like Saputo had recovered earnings nicely in this market in FY 2026. Why did you fundamentally want to exit or mostly exit this market?
Yeah, I think on the one hand, it's definitely not related to performance and productivity because in many respects it was one of the most performing platforms or set of assets, two assets in particular. It just came down to de-risking. I mean, yes, 2026 was a good year and it was a good year in part because of the milk supply, milk pricing, monetary policies that were favorable to us, all things that are relatively not controllable in nature. The history with Argentina has been just that, ebbs and flows, too many aspects that we don't control. We saw an opportunity here where our growth could come from other geographies, and I'll speak to specifically what in just one second here.
But we felt an opportunity to keep growing the international markets from different platforms, and retaining a 20% stake in the business and continuing to bring some of the most valued products to our customers and markets felt like a good place to be. What gave us that additional push fundamentally is the U.S. milk supply. The U.S. milk supply's competitiveness from a price perspective and now quality, resilience, and sustainability, has given us a real reason to invest in the U.S. and use it as an export platform as much as a reason to be in the domestic market. That's new for us versus the original thesis of investment in Argentina.
Okay, that's good background. Thank you. U.K., similar question. Why was growth here insufficient for you? You'd made some progress, there was an expectation that you could keep growing earnings, keep expanding margins. You got a very healthy multiple, I think, but what was that decision based on?
I won't rehash all of the justification for the initial acquisition, but a lot of those parameters and assumptions that we had made are no longer true. A lot of that started to, I'll call it erode or change on us, post-Brexit. One of the most important elements was, we went back in fact, to the European market in the U.K. saying that this time we're going in with a position of strength with a brand, in a geography where we understand the milk supply much better, and we're not going to be just a private label provider. That remained true except for the agricultural legislation and a number of other things that occurred under Brexit that made it less attractive to actually go anywhere beyond the U.K. with that asset.
In the end, when we reconciled all these facts and looked forward, playing in continental Europe out of the U.K. was not something that was plausible anymore. The option was, how do we continue to move along the value chain confined to the U.K. and understanding the limitations of the competitiveness of milk supply and currency and all the above? Then some options came along and we balanced that against moving the needle forward on a relatively lower rate of growth versus exiting and utilizing the other platforms such as Canada, the U.S., and Australia to be the growth engine for our revenues, for our bottom line, and for our customer supply. That's how it all came together and of course, the valuation and/or our opportunity that presented itself in the end, versus the alternative is what drove the decision in the end.
O kay. Australia, you mentioned you've kept the vast majority of this business, but you did have a small asset sale here for a quarter of a billion dollars. Why did you want to sell that?
That one, that was very opportunistic, tactical in nature. To go back to the day that we had acquired the Murray Goulburn business, that asset was actually slated to close. Following the acquisition, we agreed with our partner at the time, our JV partner Danone, that we would take on the operation and try and turn this thing around because it was a losing proposition. For several years we've been able to do that.
Turned it around, turned it into something that was quite respectable in nature. But keep in mind that we were a minority stakeholder here and the majority shareholder being Danone had different thoughts about how to go to the yogurt markets or the cultured markets and we agreed that maybe the best thing for each of us was to go our separate ways here. Recognizing the value of this asset, we thought that it'd be best to sell the asset, move on, use the proceeds for continued growth in the channels that we have a license to win in and play in. So we're very pleased in the end with the outcome.
Okay, very good.
But it's a very tactical thing. This is not a representation of the broader thoughts that we have or reflections about Australia, by no means.
That's a good segue to ultimately, what is it you now want to buy? Because I think you have an arguably under-leveraged balance sheet. You have excess capital. That's a good problem to have. Maybe the way to ask the question is, what part of the value chain are you most interested in? Is it brands? Is it processing? Is it somewhere else? How do you think about that?
It's a great question. We're not looking to buy anything, meaning it's not the first priority. Our first priority is to ensure that we remain relevant with our customers and our consumers, and that dictates a lot of the choices for capital allocation. As we think about the consumer and their continued preferences and their choices and all this kind of stuff, some of our dollars will have to absolutely go to technology and capacity additions as they always have, and we're very comfortable in the space. Other instances, a brand or accessing the last mile, I'll talk about that in a second, is another area where we might want to invest and grow organically or if the path of least resistance and greatest opportunity is through an acquisition, we'll absolutely consider that. But they're all purposeful. There's no spend for the sake of spending.
Said differently, M&A is not our strategy. M&A is going to be a complement for us to remain relevant with our growing partners and the consumer who, as we all know, is changing the way they consume, what they consume at a fairly rapid pace. So we need to continue to invest in innovation. We need to continue to invest in insights. In some cases, brands will be important. A good example might be when you think about how we're vertically integrated in the ingredient space. So from milk procurement to cheese make, to legacy terminology of byproducts of whey. We bring our whey products to end users for the most part. We don't bring our ingredients, our WPCs and/or other, to the consumer. I call that piece the last mile.
That might be an area where accessing a brand or accessing tools and capacities and capabilities might be an area where M&A makes more sense for us than other. But that's just an example amongst other things that we stay focused on. Value is one, affordability is another huge piece. We need to ensure that the dairy story behind value, affordability and health nutritional profile, we don't want those two things running on different paths or diverging from one another in many respects. So investing in automation, investing in ensuring that we remain a low-cost manufacturer is always first and foremost for us.
Okay, good. The CapEx plans you have for FY 2027 and perhaps they stretch into FY 2028, what is going to make the biggest difference on EBITDA growth? What are the biggest contributors?
I am going to say there are a couple of exciting areas where we are investing in additional capacity, like in cottage cheese and in some cultured products, where we are struggling to meet demand. This is not new territory for us. In many respects, both in Canada and the U.S., we are the largest manufacturers of both those products. Well, at least the cottage side. So that is an area that we are investing in right now, so we expect to see some returns over the next couple of years.
Same with some of the value-added milks. Protein fortified drinks, ultrafiltered in nature, things of that nature are where we are focused on when it comes to relevancy with the consumer. A portion of our investments will continue to go to lowering our overall cost. That overall cost, I will use the word automation, and automation is both mechanical in nature and then when we think about AI and those capabilities, call it automation, those are also areas where we will be spending some dollars and expecting the returns on the obvious fronts.
Message received, you do not want to buy or are not looking to buy anything. Let us just say for a moment you were.
Yeah.
What does the space look like right now in terms of valuations you see or quality of assets? Is it not compelling enough and that is part of the reason you say you are not super interested right now?
No, I want to make sure that I clarify. It is not that we are not interested. It has to be purposeful, and certainly value is a big piece of that equation. There are a number of assets out there that are available, that are for sale, maybe and all the above, but we are not jumping on them for the sake of entering a new market. I think I have used the term in the past. We are not interested in new milk sheds. We are very happy with the platforms now that we are operating from a position of strength in with Canada, the U.S., and Australia. We are not just going to look for a new area where we need milk sourcing or we want to tackle a new domestic market. For us, we feel good where we are at.
The M&A opportunities have to fundamentally be accretive for us, number one. The second piece is it has to provide us an incremental tool, strength that is needed to stay relevant with our customers and our consumers. It is very intentional, very purposeful, and when you think of it that way, it narrows the scope. It narrows the scope of targets fundamentally that are attractive to us because we are not looking at any and all geographies.
Okay. You use the word affordability as a key topic or a key focus.
Yeah.
Do you target every consumer or do you intentionally go after a higher income consumer that's more discerning about protein content or willing to pay more for it?
It's an and for us. A high percentage of our consumer base is fundamentally value-oriented in nature. We want to make sure that that's an engine behind our business, but we also want to be able to capture that value-added consumer. And certainly fractionated proteins and protein-enriched products meet that need. Then there's the something in between and some of those in-between ones are the more cultured type of products in nature. But when you think about share of stomach and alternatives for health, nutrition, protein, even when I think about that higher tier, it's still value compared to some of the alternatives like the meat industry, if you want. So that's why I feel strongly about dairy's role in the consumer's share of stomach and portfolio.
Okay. I feel like I've asked about buyback programs in every fireside so far. Let's keep the streak going here. You recently increased the maximum amount from 5% of shares out to 6%. I wonder how we should interpret that. Does that signal a desire to be more aggressive on the buyback than you were prior to that announcement?
I think it just signals one, the continued strength of the cash generation from our operations, and the near-term opportunities that we have. When you think about our capital program and the levels of spend that we have planned for this current fiscal year, and the strong cash generation that the business continues to deliver, spending and acquiring our shares has been a good option for us at this moment and we feel that that's a reasonable place to be considering the alternatives. Should there be other alternatives where we felt that a higher degree of capital investment is needed to capture a market opportunity, I know we pound on protein, then that might change the perspective on whether or not the buyback is the best use of excess capital if you like.
Yeah. Okay. Good.
But we feel comfortable where we're at. The business outlook on cash generation is still very strong, so we're in a good spot if I can say it that way.
Yeah, okay. I want to ask about the cheese market and dynamics of it. It's been challenging for some time, albeit less so than in some other years that the block prices come down alongside milk prices. I wonder if you expect conditions to get more favorable in the near term and maybe the second part of this is does it matter the way it used to given the byproducts of this are so profitable?
The question's framed really well.
Thank you.
It's less relevant. It is less relevant for a number of reasons, including things that we control. From an overall base business performance, our ability to meet fill rates, the diversification of the portfolio, firing on all cylinders, is making it less relevant. Yes, you're right, from a block price, we're sitting at a fairly depressed price in the cheese block, and it does still have an impact on our business, for sure, but these other factors are mitigating, in large part, that issue. I call it an issue because it's not so much the absolute value of the block price, it's more that that translates into a milk price, and that milk price isn't really sustainable for the dairy farming community long term.
The reality is that that corrects itself with time, but the cycle in, I'll say, decision-making for the farming community is it's a good 12 -1 8 months of a lag before a choice in reducing the output of milk might come along. The U.S., right now in particular, has produced in consecutive years over 3% milk increases, 3% - 4% for that fact. It's created an abundance of milk, and at a rate that is exceeding that of fundamental dairy demand.
Certainly exports have helped keep that afloat, but we are getting to the point where now it is less about the demand mismatch, it is some of the input costs, I believe, will start to drive decisions on the farming milk side. Energy costs are increasing. The expected costs of feed are supposed to be higher than the last couple of years. You put those two things together, and maybe some of the meat market softening in some ways, and they participated with their Beef on Dairy program at extracting value from some of their calves.
I know it is a long-winded way of explaining milk, but fundamentally, the input costs for milk farming are going to change. That is going to drive different choices of the farming base, which is probably going to lower the output, which will then have a consequence on the overall block price. We do expect the appreciation of that to translate into a stronger price. But it is not something that we wake up in the morning worrying about. Not like we used to, if I can say it that way.
Yeah.
Because we have stronger fundamentals in our business, a broader base of diversification, including the retail space, which is less price sensitive, because of, well, branded retail space anyway. So we feel good about where this is headed and where the upside still sits.
Okay. Artificial intelligence at Saputo. What are some of the most impactful initiatives you have underway, either customer facing or behind the scenes?
Mostly both behind the scenes. I will say two spaces, commercial and then the back office, if I can say it that way, and planning. Maybe three. One, from an insights perspective, AI is certainly helping us consolidate, navigate, assess what all the data means from consumer insights. It is allowing us to fundamentally channel our innovation more efficiently, more rapidly. I think about then the production side. I think Metro was talking about the value in their forecasting and demand planning.
Both from a demand planning and production planning perspective, we are seeing some really interesting ways of working, changes in the levels of working capital as an example, that we might have our inventory translating to working capital. All of this stuff is where we are starting to see the first of benefits. The last piece is applying some of that to our back office with regards to just data processing and things of that nature, administrative tasks. Still in the infancy stage, so I know others would say that it has been multiple years they are in this space. We are not. This is new for us. It is very much part of our strategy, but we are still in the early phases, and we feel really good about the opportunities that it will unlock for us.
Yeah. Okay. Very good. I wanted to get one more in on A&P, but you know what, we will have to save it for another time.
Okay.
That is all the time we have. Carl, very much appreciate you joining today. Thank you.
John, very much. Thank you.
Great job. Thank you.