Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (TSX:SOIL)
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May 1, 2026, 4:00 PM EST
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Mar 29, 2023

John Jeffrey
CEO, Saturn Oil and Gas

Thank you for joining us. Saturn Oil and Gas' Third Quarter or Fourth Quarter 2022 Shareholder Webcast for the financial and operational results. I'm John Jeffrey, CEO. With me is Scott Sanborn, our CFO, and Justin Kaufmann, our Chief Development Officer. We'll present an updated presentation. Afterwards, we'll be happy to answer your questions and take your comments. First, I wanna thank our shareholders and supporters for joining us today to discuss Saturn's 2022 year-end financial and operational results. As a subsequent event to year-end, we will touch on the Ridgeback acquisition we closed at the end of last month. We welcome your questions. Feel free to post them during the presentation, and we hope to get to them all at the end. 2022 was a very active year for Saturn.

On the drilling side, the company completed 57 horizontal wells with a 100% success rate. Now, to put that in context, that is more wells than Saturn has drilled in its history. The program was led by Justin Kaufmann, our Chief Development Officer, and he'll get into more details about it shortly. Saturn also remained active on securing accretive acquisitions. Last year, we closed on two attractive asset purchases, both in the Viking Formation in West Central Saskatchewan. These acquisitions made for a sharp increase in our light oil production, but they both also came with an impressive development location. Much of the drilling we undertook in the back half of 2022 was performed on the vast acreage acquired in these acquisitions.

I'm very pleased to highlight, Saturn reached record production levels in Q4 of 2022 of over 12,500 BOE a day. This matches or slightly exceeds guidance we set out in May of 2022. This achievement that we relied heavily upon the success of our technical team's active drilling program. The record Q4 production last year represents a 72% YoY increase from the average production in Q4 of 2021. Scott Sanborn, Saturn's CFO, will go over all the great details of last year's financial performance, but I will just key on one, highlight one key metric right now. In Q4 of last year, we posted adjusted funds flow of CAD 0.85 per basic share.

This represents over a double from CAD 0.39 in Q4 the year before. A strong indication that we're increasing the Saturn value that we aim to achieve YoY. As exciting as 2022 was, we expect 2023 to be even more exciting. We kicked off 2023 with the January announcement of the acquisition of the private oil and gas company, Ridgeback Resources. We closed the deal on February 28th, and effectively increased Saturn's production by 140%. This is a real game changer for Saturn and established us as a midcap producer. The Ridgeback acquisition checked every box for what we were looking for in an acquisition.

It was light oil-focused, high netback production, high working interest and operatorship, deep inventory of de-risked drilling inventory that will allow Saturn to keep production flat for well over a decade. Almost as importantly, it meaningful, impactful synergies, specifically in our southeast assets with overlapping production that will help us lower our cost per BOE. The Ridgeback acquisition was a natural fit with our core development in Southeast Saskatchewan, increasing that business unit's production by over 70%. There's also ideal opportunity for us to add a third core development area, with expansion to Alberta, largely in the Cardium asset base. Most importantly, these assets were acquired, or more importantly than the assets, the physical assets were acquired, was the technical team that came across with it, and we welcomed all those people into the Saturn family.

Going forward, Saturn has tremendously talented technical and business team of professionals, terrific asset base with extensive running room for long-term development, and establishes substantial free cash flow generation platform. 2022 was a banner year, but I'm even more excited about 2023. I'll now turn it over to Justin Kaufmann for an overview of the 2022 operations. Justin.

Justin Kaufmann
Chief Development Officer, Saturn Oil and Gas

Thanks, John. 2022 was a real test of our technical team as we took on an ambitious 57 well drilling program. We are ecstatic about achieving a 100% success rate. I will point out to our shareholders this is a function of the low risk profile of the development projects that we undertake as a company. We are very pleased with the results of the drilling program, especially in terms of the average initial production rate of our new wells. We typically guide to about 70 barrels a day on these types of wells for the first 30 days of peak production. Our new horizontal wells in 2022 averaged 84 barrels per day. This amounts to about a 20% increase of our original guided production target.

We focused much of the recent drilling on de-risk areas, and we have been following up on our prior successes. As such, some of our best results have come from the most recently drilled wells. In Q4 of 2022, Saturn drilled 16 horizontal wells, nine Viking and seven Mississippian. Through most of the year, Saturn ran two rigs continuously, one in Oxbow, Saskatchewan, and one in the Viking asset in West Central Saskatchewan. Having the critical mass to continuously run a drill program allows us to have operating efficiencies, and this was a factor in the success of the 2022 drill program. This has been a benefit of Saturn's recent growth to run a robust and efficient drill program.

In Southeast Saskatchewan, we drilled 25 horizontal wells, of which are now online as producers. Five of these were re-drills that had little to no production. In these five wells, our technical team identified prospective reservoirs that were missed in the initial drilling. We were five for five in turning these old wells into new producers, which we are extremely excited about. The advantage of these re-drills is by using an existing wellbore, the overall drilling cost reduces by about 50%, but the production comes online at about 75% of the new well. There's definitely a positive wedge to be gained there. We estimate that Saturn has over 100 re-drill candidates, and we will be active in 2021, 2023 to continue to develop these types of wells.

The Viking program was particularly successful in 2022. We drilled 32 wells with an average initial production rates over 30% above guidance levels. As we continue to outperform in the Viking asset, we directed increased capital towards this area in 2022. Of the 32 wells, 27 of them were lands picked up from the Viking acquisition in July. That acquisition is already paying off on the development side. Saturn did step out in the southeast of Plato in the Viking. After interpreting the local seismic, we drilled two wells. Both of these wells came out production over 100 barrels a day. In the near term, this pool extension opens up 25-50 drilling locations on six contiguous sections, which previously had zero reserves attributed to it.

Two weeks ago, Saturn released the results of 2022 year-end reserve evaluation. The total proved and probable reserves amount to 63 million barrels of oil equivalent, with 95% of that made up of oil and natural gas liquids. This is up 24% YoY. In relation to Saturn's Q4 of 2022 production, our book reserves imply a 14-year reserve life index. As you can see, a very deep inventory of sustainable production. Our successful drilling program and effective acquisition metrics were also reflected in Saturn's finding and development and acquisition costs. Our two-year average FD&A costs for total proof plus probable reserves are approximately CAD 13 per BOE.

This is a very attractive cost for new reserves in context to the average operating netback Saturn has enjoyed over the last two years at approximately $60 per BOE after royalties and operating costs, that is. This implies a reciprocal ratio of over 4.5 times, indicating very economic conditions of new reserves. The NPV of the future net reserves of the PDP using a 10% discount was $791 million, implying a PDP net asset value per basic Saturn share of $6.19. Including the future development of total proved plus probable reserves, sorry, amounts to a basic share 2P asset value of $12.88.

Two weeks ago, we also announced the 2022 year-end reserves of the Ridgeback Resources acquisition, which had a PDP of CAD 883 million, discounted at 10%, which more than doubles the PDP value of Saturn on a pro forma basis. The Ridgeback acquisition also came with over 500 drilling locations. With the addition of these locations and our current unbooked locations, we have over 1,700 new drills, which is extremely exciting because that provides us with over 20 years of sustainable light oil assets to continue to develop. In Q1, Saturn drilled 13 net horizontal wells in its Oxbow and Viking assets. Again, we achieved 100% success rates. We have IP30 s from two of these wells.

They are the 1121 and 922 Frobisher wells in Southeast Saskatchewan, and came online at 150 barrels a day, which is pretty exciting as this approximately doubles the expected IP30 rates. As further production data comes available, we will have an operations update for shareholders. After breakup, we look forward to getting back to the field and expect to have up to four active drilling rigs. I will now hand it over to Scott, to talk about our financial details of the fourth quarter and year-end 2022.

Scott Sanborn
CFO, Saturn Oil and Gas

Thanks, Justin. Yes, Q4 2022 was a record quarter on a number of fronts. Record quarterly average production at approximately 12,500 BOE per day, an increase of 72% YoY. Revenue at CAD 112 million, up 108% YoY. Adjusted funds flow of CAD 50.7 million, an increase over 400% from the same period in 2021. These are all new record highs for Saturn as we have been growing production in this period of high oil prices. More importantly, Saturn has been setting new records on a per share basis.

As John mentioned previously, in Q4, in 2022, Saturn reached $0.85 in adjusted funds flow, up from $0.69 in the third quarter of 2022, an increase YoY of 118% from $0.39 in Q4 of 2021. Saturn's financial performance was bolstered by increased oil prices in 2022, with WTI per barrel averaging $94, versus $68 in 2021. The strength of the US dollar has helped not just Saturn, but all Canadian oil producers. Another important driver of increased cash flow have been improving our overall netback profile. Average royalties decreased to 12.8% in 2022 compared to 15.4% in 2021.

Average net operating costs decreased 9% to CAD 24.67 per BOE in 2022 compared to CAD 27.22 in BOE in 2021. Average realized loss on derivatives decreased 42% in Q4 over Q4. Operating netback net of derivatives increased 70% from CAD 43.82 per BOE compared to CAD 25.71 per BOE in 2021. Saturn exited the fourth quarter with approximately CAD 220 million net debt, realizing a net debt to quarterly annualized adjusted funds flow of 1.1 times and repaid over CAD 60 million throughout 2022. John mentioned, we'll be looking to moderate production growth in the near term and maximize free cash flow for rapid debt repayment. This concludes the formal part of the investor webcast, we will now move on to the question period.

It looks like there are a few Q&As queued up. We will go through those. Management will be happy to answer those for you.

John Jeffrey
CEO, Saturn Oil and Gas

Thank you very much, Scott. Any questions from everybody now?

Scott Sanborn
CFO, Saturn Oil and Gas

We do. First one, Saturn has operated exclusively in Saskatchewan to date. Does the company have the technical expertise to expand its operations into Alberta?

John Jeffrey
CEO, Saturn Oil and Gas

Yeah. You know, Saskatchewan has been a fantastic place for us to start and grow. You know, we were able to successfully grow to, you know, over 10,000 barrels a day. I think just that for the company to go to the next level, we needed to move, you know, a little deeper in the basin. In order for us to do that, you know, that's one of the things that made this Ridgeback acquisition so appealing, is that they had a very strong technical team that complemented ours very, very well. I think those two teams together, you know, we are, we are more than capable to excel in all of the basins which we currently operate.

The biggest three is Southeast Saskatchewan, the Viking in West Central Saskatchewan, and now the Cardium in Central Alberta. You know, we've been evaluating opportunities in Alberta for about a year and a half now. And the suite of light oil assets that Ridgeback offered in conjunction with the team that we were able to get to come across with it, that's what really made that stand out for us. That was one of the things we were very excited about, and I'm definitely confident in our team's ability to continue to outperform expectations.

Justin Kaufmann
Chief Development Officer, Saturn Oil and Gas

Yeah. John, maybe I can add. While we did review and map, the different areas of Alberta and the Cardium, it has been very impressive to see, the technical team, out at the previous Ridgeback, what they've been able to bring to the table. You gotta remember that, in the previous 30 wells, that Ridgeback did drill, they exceeded type curve, so really strong, big technical team. We have essentially integrated them with Saturn team, and we are excited for the second half of this year to start drilling up those locations.

John Jeffrey
CEO, Saturn Oil and Gas

Yeah, that's a great point. Thanks, Justin.

Scott Sanborn
CFO, Saturn Oil and Gas

Thanks for that. Second question, Saturn has increased its debt levels with the recent Ridgeback acquisition. How many years does this push out the target date to be debt-free? I'll take that one. You know, part of our strategy is to buy low, low-priced assets with the free cash flow that the company has, with additional equity financings and additional abilities on a corporate level. You know, when you can buy an asset, in this case, for less than two times the run rate cash flow, the asset can pay back its period in a very short amount of time. While Saturn did increase its debt levels with the Ridgeback acquisition, we have extended our time to be zero net debt by about one year.

Right now, the current facility will be net debt free by close to Q4 2025, with the actual principal repayments due well into Q1 2026. Third question has come through. Did Ridgeback sell because they had no development opportunities left?

Justin Kaufmann
Chief Development Officer, Saturn Oil and Gas

That is absolutely not the case. Ridgeback was previously owned by two private equity groups, who had a long investment, that dated essentially over the last seven years. This is the first time since they've owned the asset where oil's been consistently above $60, $65 that is. They took this opportunity to take some money off the table. One of the most attractive aspects, we liked about the Ridgeback asset was all the upside that came with it. There is 10-15 years of book locations, not even including, some of the unbooked locations. Fair to say that Ridgeback has a lot of meat left on the bone.

I can add, we see over 300 locations just in the Cardium, which will now be a third core area for Saturn, along with the Viking and Southeast Saskatchewan. It's extremely good fit. We look at it comparable to how we developed our Viking play. We believe that we will be very successful as producers in that play. Also there's the light oil Bakken in Southeast Saskatchewan offsetting our Mississippian assets. They're drilling those wells with a new technique, drilling six to eight leg multi-leg conventional horizontal wells. Where previously the Bakken wells were stimulated with frack, now they're open hole completing them, similar to how they complete the Clearwater.

Offsetting producers have had production rates up to over 225 barrels a day, which is twice of what you'd see on a frack Bakken. This is extremely exciting. We have a big land base there. Most of it's on fee land, so there's very low royalties. There's potential for an additional five years of drilling inventory, of a few thousand barrels a day. We're really excited to drill three wells on that asset in 2023, and potentially grow it, more in the future.

John Jeffrey
CEO, Saturn Oil and Gas

I think the big thing here is, you know, the reserve report speaks for itself, and it's very much in line with the strategy we've seen. The two Viking acquisitions we did last year, lots of drilling was done there in the last half of last year. Those results again came on almost double of what guidance was. Picking up low-risk assets with lots of meat left on the bone, you know, 10+ years drilling inventory, that's always been our strategy. That's definitely what we see us execute again here today with the Ridgeback one. Very excited about the upside that we see there. You know, the same as we've seen again in the Viking and the original Oxbow deal we did back in June of 2021 as well.

You know, pretty consistently, you know, steady in the acquisitions we look for and the running room that we identify, when we're looking at acquisitions. Appreciate that feedback, JK, and what else you have for us, Scott?

Scott Sanborn
CFO, Saturn Oil and Gas

Question come through Patrick. How are you thinking about capital allocation between M&A and drilling?

John Jeffrey
CEO, Saturn Oil and Gas

Yeah. I think for now, where you're gonna see us focus on is debt repayment. Because the way that our debt is structured, where there's 50% amort in the first year, most of our, in fact, all of our free cash flow is gonna go towards debt repayment and maintenance capital. Our plan is to really stay flat for the next 12 months by retiring and then using that excess free cash flow to retire about 50% of our debt in the next 12 to 14 months. That's where you're gonna see most of our attention go towards now.

You know, if we are able to pick up, you know, a few small packages of land that's offsetting us, I don't think any of our cash flow from operations is gonna go towards any acquisitions, at least not in the near term.

Scott Sanborn
CFO, Saturn Oil and Gas

Thanks, John. Something you'd like to touch on as well, a comment here. To clarify, adjusted funds flow per share for 2022 was higher than ending 2022 share price. Talk about the valuation a little bit.

John Jeffrey
CEO, Saturn Oil and Gas

Yeah. No, you know, really proud of the cash flow generated, especially on a per share basis. You know, and I think again, it's, you know, we struggle to keep using the word transformational around here, but, you know, we've had a few really good acquisitions that keeps kind of remaking what Saturn is. When you look at Q3 of last year, for example, CAD 0.70 per share of adjusted funds flow, then jumping up to CAD 0.85. You know, we expect it to be even higher looking into Q1 and Q2 of this year with this latest acquisition. You know, for us, it's difficult to make the market react. All we can do is attribute more value per share.

I think that's what you're seeing us continue to do here is increase the cash flow per share. We're hoping that hopefully at this level and at this scale, you start to see a bit of momentum pick up, and you realize that, yeah, you know, we shouldn't be trading at less than, you know, our annualized adjusted funds flow per share.

We're hoping that all these movements, again, becoming more of a midcap producer, continually putting out successful quarter, beating our guidance and expectations, you know, if we can get a little luck with the continued rally of oil here, and then some more investment, looking back into this section, I think more and more investors and stakeholders are gonna realize, you know, the gem that is Saturn and the value that we've created, and hopefully we can see a substantial rally of our share price into 2023.

Scott Sanborn
CFO, Saturn Oil and Gas

That's great. Thanks, Joh n. Looks like that's it for questions. If there's nothing else, that will be the conclusion of our Fourth Quarter Investor Webcast. Thank you, everybody, for your time, and we will see you next year.

John Jeffrey
CEO, Saturn Oil and Gas

Thank you.

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