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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

May 26, 2023

Operator

Thank you for standing by. Good morning. My name is Jenny, I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Silvercorp Metals fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2023 financial results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lon Shaver, Vice President, for opening remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

That's great. Thank you, Jenny. On behalf of Silvercorp , I'd like to welcome everyone for joining the call this morning or afternoon, wherever you may be, to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results, which were released yesterday after market close. A copy of the news release, the MD&A, and the financial statements for today's call are available on our website. Before we get started, I'm required to remind you that certain statements on today's call will contain forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Please review the cautionary statements included in our news release and presentation, as well as the risk factors described in our most recent 10-Q and Form 40-F and AIF.

To kick off and recap the quarter, with respect to Q4, despite the regular impact of the Chinese New Year slowdown, our mines operated at roughly in line with expectations, as reflected in our previously released production numbers. Revenue for the quarter in Q4 was $34.1 million. That was down 18% compared to the prior year quarter. This included a decrease of $4.6 million due to lower silver, lead, and zinc sold as compared to last year's quarter. Also a decrease of $3.6 million due to lower realized selling prices for all these metals.

Based on production levels and the realized prices we obtained in the quarter, silver was 57% of revenues on a net basis, compared to 55% in Q4 of last year. Our fourth quarter net income attributable to equity shareholders was $0.2 million, or nil per share, as compared to a net income of $4 million or $0.02 a share for the same period last year. The main contributor to the decrease was the factors I mentioned before, which affected revenue. As well, we had a mark-to-market loss of $1.1 million on equity investments and a $1.9 million impairment charge against a short-term investment in certain bonds.

On adjusted basis, with adjustments made to remove the impacts of non-cash and unusual items, such as impairment charges, share-based comp, foreign exchange changes, the share and loss of our associates, operating results, gains and losses on investments and one-time items, our earnings for the quarter were $5 million or $0.03 a share, compared to $9.7 million or $0.05 a share for the same period last year. Just a reminder, we're providing the suggested earnings as a supplemental non-GAAP measure, to give investors another metric to better measure the performance of our underlying business, its profitability and growth potential. Our cash flow from operating activities in the quarter was $5.7 million.

Compared to $11.4 million in the prior year quarter, decrease was mainly due to these other factors I mentioned before, affecting revenue and net income, and a $5.8 million adjustment in non-cash working capital. Before changes in non-cash working capital, our cash flow in the quarter was $11.6 million, compared to $14 million in Q4 of last year. Capital expenditures total approximately $9.5 million in the quarter, down slightly from $10 million in Q4 of fiscal 2022, and we ended the quarter with $203.3 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments, down from two point, s orry, $212.9 million at the end of last fiscal year.

That was mainly due to a negative $8.7 million translation impact arising from the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar and Chinese RMB. This cash position does not include our investments in associates and other companies, which had a total market value of $141.9 million on March 31st, of which, just note, New Pacific was $120 million of that. To quickly recap the full year financial results, revenue for the fiscal year was $208.1 million.

This was down 4% compared to the prior year, reflecting a few factors, one of which is a $16.6 million decrease, due to lower realized selling prices of silver, lead, and zinc. Secondly, a $3.6 million decrease, due to lower zinc sales. However, this was offset by a $9.7 million increase from higher silver, gold, and lead sold, year-over-year. Net income to equity shareholders was $20.6 million or $0.12 a share. That compared to $30.6 million or $0.17 in fiscal 2022. Decrease primarily reflects the aforementioned factors affecting revenue, and as well, during the year, early in the year, we took a $20.2 million impairment charge against the La Yesca project.

Our adjusted earnings for the year were $37 million, or $0.21 a share, compared to $52.4 million, or $0.30 a share, last year. Our cash flow from operating activities for the year was $85.6 million, down from $107.4 million in the prior year, due to those previously mentioned factors that impacted revenue and net income, and as well, a $2 million adjustment in non-cash working capital. Before changes in non-cash working capital, cash flow for this fiscal year was $87.7 million, compared to $101 million in fiscal 2022. Capital expenditures in the year were approximately $58 million for fiscal 2023.

That was up slightly from the $54 million in the same prior period, mainly due to increases in exploration and development tunneling, as well as certain equipment and facilities upgrades at both operations. Quarterly production recap. In terms of quarterly production, we previously reported we mined 182,000 tons of ore and milled 179,000 tons. That was up 1% and down 2% respectively compared to the same quarter last year. Produced in the quarter, 1.1 million ounces of silver, 1,000 ounces of gold, 10.9 million pounds of lead, and 3.6 million pounds of zinc.

Those were decreases of 3%, 9%, and 13% respectively in silver, lead, and zinc production, due to some lower head grades, and then but a 100% increase in gold production over the same quarter of last year. The cash cost per ounce of silver net of byproduct credits was $0.92 in the fourth quarter, as compared to -$0.54 in the prior year quarter. We experienced a $2.6 million decrease in expensed production costs , but this was more than offset by a $4.2 million decrease in byproduct credits, impacting that cash cost number. On an all-in sustaining basis, our cash, sorry, our cost to produce an ounce of silver net of byproduct credits in the quarter, was $13.85.

This compared to $12.60 in Q4 of fiscal 2022. The increase primarily reflects the same factors that impacted consolidated cash costs, as well as a few % lower silver production number in the quarter. Looking at the full year results, mined and milled 1.1 million tons of ore in the fiscal year. Both of those were up 7% compared to fiscal 2022. Our production of 6.6 million ounces of silver, 4.4 thousand ounces of gold, 68.1 million pounds of lead, and 23.5 million pounds of zinc, represented increases in production of 8%, 29%, and 6% respectively in silver, gold, and lead.

Mainly due to higher mining and milling rates, and a decrease of 12% in zinc production, over the last year, mainly due to lower head grades in the ore. On a year basis, the cash cost per ounce of silver, net of by-product credits, was -$0.42, compared to -$1.29 in fiscal 2022. Increased mainly due to a $2.1 million decrease in by-product credits and a $3.2 million increase in expensed production costs . On an all-in sustaining basis, the cost to produce an ounce of silver, net of by-product credits in fiscal 2023, was $9.73, compared to $8.77, you know, last year.

Increase reflects the same factors that impacted the consolidated cash cost per ounce, as well as a $7.7 million increase in certain sustaining capital expenditures, offset by a $2.7 million decrease in admin expenses and mineral resources tax. Looking ahead to this current fiscal year, fiscal 2024, we're reiterating our production and cost guidance that we announced on February 9th. Expect to produce between 6.8 million and 7.2 million ounces of silver, 4.4 thousand to 5.5 thousand ounces of gold, between 70.5 million and 73.8 million pounds of lead, and 27.7 million- 29.7 million pounds of zinc.

Midpoints of these numbers reflect a increases of approximately 3%-8% in silver, 0%-25% increase in gold, 4%-8% increase in lead, and 18%-26% in zinc, compared to our actual fiscal 2023 results. In terms of cost guidance for the year, we're anticipating on a consolidated basis between 78.2-80.5 per ton on a cash cost basis, which is 4%-7% below our actual performance in fiscal 2023. On an all-in sustaining basis, we're looking ahead to between 136.4-142.4 per ton, which is roughly in line to 4% below actual fiscal 2023 performance.

Turning to growth projects, looking ahead, we completed a total of 8,485 meters of drilling in this last fiscal year at the Kuanping project. Recall, this is a satellite property located north of Ying that we acquired in November of 2021. In December of 2022, we received the Kuanping mining license from the Department of Natural Resources, which covers an approximate 7 square kilometer land package and is good until March of 2029. Looking ahead, we're planning to carry out certain studies this year to complete the environmental assessment, water and soil protection assessments, and preliminary safety facilities and mine design reports, to get some remaining ancillary permits. Further updates on the mine construction plan and cost estimates will be provided upon completion of these reports.

In fiscal 2023, we spent a total of $4.8 million on the construction of a new tailings storage facility and a new 3,000 ton per day flotation mill at Ying. This was, if you look back at guidance, significantly below what we'd had anticipated for the year. A total of 3,233 meters or 64% of the drainage tunnels have been completed, and site preparation for the new mill was also completed. Also, we can confirm we've received all government approvals to construct both projects. In addition, over the last year, we spent $2 million on various upgrades, including certain environmental protection facilities at Ying as part of our continuing commitment to building green mines.

We spent $1 million on the construction of an XRT ore sorting system at the GC mine, which is currently in trial production. We're looking to implement a similar program at Ying. Overall, CapEx in fiscal 2024 is budgeted at $64.7 million, with roughly $21.8 million of that going towards Ying's equipment and facilities, construction of the tailing storage facilities, the addition of a paste backfill plant, and as I mentioned, an XRT ore sorting system at Ying to optimize the mine plan and improve ore processing head grades. You'll note that on May 15th, we announced a non-binding term sheet for the acquisition of Celsius Resources. The final structure of the proposed transaction will be governed by the terms of a definitive agreement, which we are in the process of negotiating and finalizing.

After we've entered into this agreement, which we anticipate within one month of the term sheet, we'll be driving ahead with the rest of the documentation to complete this transaction. Celsius' flagship project is the MCB copper-gold project, located on the main island of Luzon in the Philippines. Mineralization in the project area was first discovered in the early 1930s, but modern exploration was limited until Freeport entered in 2006. Over the next seven years, Freeport conducted systematic exploration work that included approximately 25,000 meters of drilling and 46 diamond drill holes. This work largely underpinned the initial MCB JORC-compliant mineral resource estimate that Celsius tabled in 2021.

Additional drilling between 2021 and 2022 by Celsius led to an updated, JORC-compliant mineral resource estimate, which was announced in December of 2022, which include measured indicated resources of 296 million tons, grading 0.46 copper and 0.12 grams per ton gold, and an inferred resource of 42 million tons, grading 0.52 copper and 0.11 grams per ton gold. Celsius had also released a scoping study on the MCB project in December of 2021, based entirely on a high-grade subset of that initial resource, the indicated component of the initial resource that had been published in January of 2021.

That study that they completed outlined a potential 2.28 million tons per year underground operation, mining and milling approximately 49 million tons of ore, at 0.85% copper and 0.41% gold over a 25-year life, with a standard flotation process, producing a clean copper gold concentrate and delivering on average 16,000 tons of copper and 19,000 ounces of gold per year over that life of mine at a C1 cash cost of 129, s orry, $1.29 per pound of copper, net of gold credits.

The study also encompassed a first 10-year profile, where the annual output was 22,000 tons of copper and 27,000 ounces of gold over that 10-year period, at a cost of $0.73 per pound of copper, net of gold credits. The study estimated an initial capital cost of $253 million and generated a post-tax NPV at an 8% discount rate of $464 million, assuming a $4 copper price and $1,695 per ounces of gold.

We believe the acquisition of the MCB Project gives Silvercorp exposure to a high-grade copper gold project well suited to our extensive underground mining experience in a promising jurisdiction and with substantial local relationships and support that has been developed by the Celsius team. We look forward to providing investors with updates on the proposed Celsius transaction and the MCB Project over the coming months. With that, I would be happy to open the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question is from Joseph Reagor from ROTH MKM. Please ask your question.

Joseph Reagor
Managing Director of Equity Research of Metals and Mining, Roth MKM

Hey, Lon. Thanks for taking the questions.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Hi, Joe.

Joseph Reagor
Managing Director of Equity Research of Metals and Mining, Roth MKM

First thing, on GC, the cost guidance, suggests, you know, most of the drop from last year will occur there. Is there anything in particular driving the lower cost per ton at GC?

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Well, I think it's just been a renewed focus. Obviously, GC was not a great performer for much of this past fiscal year. You know, just a variety of reasons. Nothing, sort of nothing is a constant in mining. You had some issues that arose, and in particular, obviously, you saw that we had a production curtailment because of some additional capital investment that had to be done at GC. The law of small numbers in this case, you know, really threw things off. I think this is more of a return to a more normal, steady state.

Joseph Reagor
Managing Director of Equity Research of Metals and Mining, Roth MKM

Okay, fair enough. You know, last year in general, I, you know, a lot of the production came in, you know, a little below, but expectation with zinc was well below. Like, what's your confidence level that you guys have resolved whatever caused that issue?

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

I think the confidence level is good. I think it is useful to go back and look at the 43-101 that was published in September. There were a number of sort of changes in approaches to really looking at and addressing sort of what the zinc numbers were and sort of what type of zinc mineralization is kind of included in those numbers. I do think that sort of the bad news on that zinc front is behind us and, you know, the targets that we've put out for this coming year are achievable.

Joseph Reagor
Managing Director of Equity Research of Metals and Mining, Roth MKM

Okay. Fair enough.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

You know, I think the thing I would add is that, you know, you're dealing with, you know, fiscal 2023 zinc at Ying, you know, 0.7%. You know, we're calling for in 2024, 0.8. We're not dealing with, you know, big numbers or incredibly aggressive forecasts. I think it's just, a nd some of that is obviously factored in with rounding, but I do think we've addressed those issues.

Joseph Reagor
Managing Director of Equity Research of Metals and Mining, Roth MKM

Well, congrats on a good year, despite the challenges.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Thanks, Joe. Appreciate the support.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Felix Shafigullin from Eight Capital. Please ask your question.

Felix Shafigullin
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, Eight Capital

Hi, Lon. Thanks for taking the question.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Hi, Felix.

Felix Shafigullin
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, Eight Capital

Hi. Yeah. My question, I guess, sort of builds on the, on the previous questions. You know, your reiterated guidance, you know, higher production, lower costs. Could you just sort of provide, I guess, kind of like a rough roadmap of how you're planning to achieve that guidance? Because it seems kind of, you know, very lofty compared to your, to the year that just ended.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

I think there's been obviously a lot of drilling and a lot of work that's gone into the mine planning off of that drilling. I would say that from a identification of resources and reserves, we have a better visibility and a better scheduling program, looking at, you know, where that ore is coming from. You know, I think that's going to help address the grade question. Obviously, we're looking at certain things like ore sorting, and some of this is a bit of a trade-off question because there's certain areas in the mine where you can make a call to, you know, go with resuing mining method, more surgical, more labor intensive, higher cost, where you can minimize dilution.

On the other hand, shrinkage, cheaper overall mining, more dilution, lower grade, but then can you know, bring the grade up and still be delivering to the mill, the ore up the grades that you're, you know, you're targeting? You know, I think that is really some of the optimization and some of the planning that's going into this mine plan. You know, on the flip side, from a cost standpoint, you know, there's a lot of factors that go into that. It's always noisy when we have this exchange rate changes, how it impacts the selling prices in the market when you've got silver moving, the U.S. dollar moving.

On the one hand, a strengthening U.S. dollar is going to be a factor leading to lower costs on a reported basis. You know, on the other hand, we then, you know, see the noise in the income statement when the U.S. dollar strengthens, and that has an impact on conversion of other currencies in our cash and other asset balance. Yeah, I think to kind of get into all the details would be a number of factors and sort of probably too much for this call, but our projections are, you know, based on what we're, you know, what we're seeing for the year in terms of cost performance, and as I said, that enhanced mine plan.

Felix Shafigullin
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, Eight Capital

Okay, thank you. Just a quick follow-up question. Last quarter, when you announced that the new mill at the Ying mine will be delayed by, I guess, about a year, I recall that it was, you know, the issue was kind of around permitting. Have you cleared that hurdle successfully at this point?

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Yep. Yeah. As noted, in the disclosure in my comments, we've got all the permits, to proceed with the mill.

Felix Shafigullin
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, Eight Capital

Okay, thanks. Thank you very much, Lon.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

You're welcome. Thanks, Felix.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, please press star 1 should you wish to ask a question. The next one is from Justin Stevens from PI Financial. Please ask your question.

Justin Stevens
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, PI Financial Corp.

Hey, Lon. Just a few questions on my side. As far as the ore sorting tech, are you looking to trial the tech at GC before you try it at Ying, or are you potentially looking at targeting that for both mines simultaneously?

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Yeah, I mean, it's simultaneously, I guess, is probably the best word. Obviously, GC's got it first. We're not waiting for the final results on the sorting program at GC to go ahead at Ying. We will be doing that in this.

Justin Stevens
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, PI Financial Corp.

Got it. As far as the Ying application, are you looking at sort of running potentially a mine by mine, like doing it at the portal, or more sort of like a, call it the mill, doing it on the whole feed, I guess, on a campaign basis?

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Great question. It's more mine by mine, but as you recall, the location of LMW, LME, and TLP are somewhat close, and we've been working on a lot of underground access and ramps and tunnels to be able to sort of integrate the flow between those mines. If I recall correctly, I think it's at the LMW mine that we're putting it at.

Justin Stevens
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, PI Financial Corp.

Got it. Yeah.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

That one-

Justin Stevens
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, PI Financial Corp.

There's that sort of transfer structure anyways, probably a logical spot to do it. You'd ship the

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Yeah.

Justin Stevens
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, PI Financial Corp.

You truck the concentrates up to the actual mill.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Yes.

Justin Stevens
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, PI Financial Corp.

Gotcha. Yeah, that's probably the way to do it. I guess the thinking there is that, like you were sort of saying, you know, obviously resuing is, can be great, but it's obviously pretty high cost. If you can move to a more mechanized method, the trade-offs, at least on stuff that would probably be marginal, probably tilt pretty aggressively if you can reject a lot of that, uneconomic material?

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Yeah. Yeah.

I think, you know, to the other of this question and to the previous one, to sort of elaborate, you know, this isn't talking about an abrupt change, but, you know, fine-tuning at the margin where you look at certain veins and certain stopes that, you know, you might have mined on a resuing basis, you know, now based on economics and the overall picture and doing all the math, you realize, "Yeah, actually, this one now is probably better on an overall basis to run with shrinkage." Then you realize with that comes some certain compromises in terms of greater dilution from the stope, can we implement an ore sorting program to, on a cost-effective basis, you know, bring the trucked ore grade back up to where our targets are?

It's not, you know, meant to be an abrupt, sort of hard, hard pivot here in terms of how we're doing things. It's just looking at things with a improved, you know, stope-by-stope, area-by-area, you know, mine planning focus.

Justin Stevens
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, PI Financial Corp.

For sure. I mean, XRT should react pretty well with the material you're looking at here. Hopefully it pans out well. Last one I think from me, given that the Mill 3 plan has been pushed out, are you sort of looking at targeting some of those shallow dip high-grade gold structures that you're in now, or are you sort of maybe pushing those out to when that mill would be operational, given the enhanced ability to recover gold with the new mill?

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

No, we've been working on that, and arguably it's taken longer than anticipated because just given the orientation of those structures, they're, you know, they are requiring, you know, definitely a different, you know, mining approach to them. We have added, you know, we've added to the flow sheet, the ability to do gravity concentration. For some of those, you know, particularly higher grade areas in the gold, you know, we're, we've been trial mining that. That will, based on the forecast, and you can see that in the, projections in terms of production guidance, in terms of, you know, gold ore for the year. You know, that is still our target for this year, and it's independent of the mill.

Justin Stevens
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, PI Financial Corp.

Got it. It is sort of working its way into the mine plan, just like you say, probably took a little bit longer just given the different orientation, the different mining approach that you have to take for those versus the rest of the veins.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Exactly. Yeah.

Justin Stevens
Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining, PI Financial Corp.

Perfect. Great. That's it for me. Thanks.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

Oh, thanks, Justin.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time, sir. This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back to Lon Shaver for any closing remarks.

Lon Shaver
VP, Silvercorp Metals

That's great. Thank you, Jenny, and thanks everyone for tuning in today. That's all the time we have for this call. As always, if anyone has any additional questions, please don't hesitate to call or reach out to us by email. Happy to sit down, answer those questions in greater detail. Again, thank you to everyone, and have a great day.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.

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