Supremex Inc. (TSX:SXP)
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3.690
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Apr 29, 2026, 9:30 AM EST
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Earnings Call: Q1 2025

May 8, 2025

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Supremex First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following today's presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star then zero. Before turning the meeting over to the management, please be advised that this conference call will contain statements that are forward-looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on Thursday, May 8th, 2025. I will now turn the call over to Martin Goulet from MBC Capital Markets Advisors. Please go ahead.

Martin Goulet
Head of Investor Relations, Supremex Inc.

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining this discussion of Supremex's financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025. The press release reporting these results was published earlier this morning via the Globe Newswire news services. It can also be found in the investors' section of the company's website at www.supremex.com, along with the MD&A and financial statements. These documents are available on SEDAR Plus as well. A presentation supporting this conference call has also been posted on the website. We may remind you that all figures expressed on today's call are in CAD unless otherwise stated. Presenting today will be Stewart Emerson, President and CEO, as well as Suzanne Reyes, Interim CFO.

With that, I invite you to turn to slide 37 of the presentation for an overview of the first quarter, and I turn the call over to Stewart.

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

Thank you, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Supremex began 2025 with relatively solid results, especially in light of the persistent uncertainty emanating from the threat of tariffs in North America and around the world. While it was not exactly the start we were shooting for, our envelope volume was up year- over- year for the fourth consecutive quarter, and our packaging business had its best quarter in two years, validating the strength of the business in our two main verticals. Our teams have done a masterful job of navigating through a volatile environment, and while there are still levers to pull, our foundation remains rock solid and is ready to further build on it. First, let's look at the envelope business. Yes, it is true that volume was up slightly, but revenue was down 9.4% year- over- year as lower average selling prices outweighed volume gains.

As I'll explain in more detail, this dynamic was more about preparing for and reacting to tariffs than it was any fundamental shift. In the quarter, our volume gains were heavily concentrated in the U.S. market as we prioritized January and February shipping to get ahead of and counteract the threat of tariffs. In addition to our own inventory buildups in our U.S. facilities, many customers worked closely with us and took on additional inventory. That dynamic and our ability to continue to win new volume, predominantly in bills and statements, drove a sizable spike in U.S. envelope volume in the quarter. It is said that markets, generally the stock market, abhor uncertainty, but direct mail and credit card solicitation marketers also abhor the economic uncertainty resulting from the volatile tariff situation. Credit card solicitation was and is adversely impacted by the ambiguity surrounding the direction of the U.S.

Economy, which directly impacts mailers' promotional rate decisions and by the risk of stagflation or an economic downturn. This, unfortunately, affects the higher-priced direct mail envelope volume that is produced predominantly out of the Chicagoland facilities. While we played the hand we were dealt with very well, the other edge of the knife was that as we prioritized U.S. bills and statement volumes for the aforementioned reasons, it reduced available capacity for Canadian envelope customers. As a tactic to deal with the challenges, we reduced Canadian-centric stock envelope inventory, which delayed shipments to Canadian resellers, and we worked closely with large Canadian end-user customers to deplete inventories on a managed basis where we did not let them run out of envelopes, but we did not replenish as timely as we normally would, all to prioritize U.S. shipments ahead of tariffs, which impacted average selling price.

The tariff situation seems to be in perpetual evolution, and we would have preferred a more traditional blend of Canadian and U.S. volume, but our hand was forced, and we did what we had to do to protect the company's interests. While I'm not sure I'm ready to say the U.S. MCA is safe from future uncertainty, we believe we managed the situation well and are in a good position no matter what happens next. Finally, on envelope, as part of Project North America, we exited the Concord facility at the end of its lease in February. While January and February were a little rocky as equipment was commissioned and employees got accustomed to their new surroundings, we are now fully functional in our revamped Greater Toronto Area network, with efficiency and productivity improving appreciably in March.

Turning to the packaging business, we are pleased with the substantial improvement in our financial performance in the quarter. With 10% revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin of 15%, as I said at the outset, this was our best performance in two years. The main drivers of the sales gain were, first, in folding carton, we're seeing recovery in channels related to discretionary consumer spending, with a sizable year-over-year increase in business with our primary customers operating in the health and beauty and over-the-counter pharma segments, as well as the ongoing momentum in the at-home food channel, which is a focus area for us as an important hedge against economic downturns or future public health crises. Second, demand for our e-commerce fulfillment solutions remains solid across the board.

We have enjoyed the expansion and have gone along for the ride with some emerging brands in the B2C e-commerce channel, and we have had several new wins, particularly in the large U.S. market. The investment in the buildout of our sales force is paying off as we re-engage with customers that may not have experienced the attention or love that they rightfully deserve, and we continue to win new business with new customers. Finally, in package, as you've heard me express previously, we've gone back to a traditional management structure whereby a General Manager was installed in each line of business, and they are accountable and take ownership to build a strong culture and where every interaction, internally or externally, matters.

We're reaping benefits from these initiatives, and it's starting to show in the numbers, but we believe there is much more to capture as we grow our volume to improve absorption, make further efficiency gains, and achieve synergies within our network. With that, I'll turn the call over to Silvana for a review of the financial results.

Silvana Reyes
Interim CFO, Supremex Inc.

Thank you, Stewart. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 38 of the presentation. Q1 total revenue amounted to CAD 70.2 million compared to CAD 73.3 million last year. Envelope revenue was CAD 48.4 million versus CAD 53.4 million last year. The variation reflects an 11% decrease in average selling prices, mainly due to a less favorable customer and product mix between the U.S. and Canada. These factors were partially offset by a 1.8% volume increase, essentially driven by a greater presence in the U.S. as well as favorable currency conversion effects. Packaging and specialty products revenue was CAD 21.8 million, up from CAD 19.8 million last year. The increase reflects higher demand from sectors more closely correlated to economic conditions as well as higher demand from e-commerce-related packaging solutions. Moving to slide 39, adjusted EBITDA totaled CAD 8.8 million, or 12.6% of sales, compared to CAD 10.5 million, or 14.3% of sales a year ago.

Envelope adjusted EBITDA was CAD 8.3 million, or 17.2% of sales, versus CAD 10.9 million, or 20.4% of sales last year. The decrease mirrors lower selling prices, partially offset by benefits from optimization measures in the Toronto Area and the procurement optimization initiative. Packaging and specialty products adjusted EBITDA was CAD 3.3 million, or 15% of sales, compared to CAD 1.2 million, or 6.1% of sales last year. The increase is mostly due to the effect of higher volume on the absorption of fixed costs and procurement optimization initiatives. Finally, corporate and unallocated costs totaled CAD 2.8 million versus CAD 1.6 million last year. The increase is mainly due to higher professional fees, a foreign exchange loss, and higher share-based compensation expenses. Turning to slide 40, as a result of lower EBITDA, net earnings were CAD 1.9 million, or 8 cents per share, versus CAD 3.5 million, or 0.14 per share last year.

Adjusted net earnings were CAD 2.2 million, or CAD 0.09 per share, versus CAD 3.5 million, or CAD 0.14 per share a year ago. Moving to cash flow on slide 41, net cash flow from operating activities totaled CAD 7 million, compared to CAD 5.1 million last year. The increase reflects our working capital release this year as opposed to our requirement last year, partially offset by lower profitability. For the same reasons, free cash flow was CAD 6.8 million versus CAD 4.7 million last year. On a trailing 12-month basis, our free cash flow conversion rate stood at 0.87, and our free cash flow yield was about 35%, considering the recent share price. Turning to slide 42, driven by our solid free cash flow, net debt stood at CAD 35.4 million as of March 31, 2025, down CAD 5.8 million from three months ago.

Our ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA improves to 0.9x versus 1x three months ago, well within our comfort zone of keeping it below 2x. At the end of the quarter, we had more than CAD 82 million in available liquidity under a senior secured revolving credit facility, leaving us with plenty of flexibility to finance our operations and future investments, including potential acquisitions. Finally, the board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of CAD 0.05 per common share payable on June 20th to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 5th. I turn the call back to Stewart for the outlook. Stuart.

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

Great. Thank you, Silvana. Despite volatile and challenging times, good progress has been made in improving profitability, but we believe there is more to come. As we look ahead, solid business relationships, a focus on business development and innovation, along with a reputation for exceptional execution, puts us on firm ground to sustain volume growth momentum and enhanced absorption. The murky tariff situation continues to be an unwelcome distraction, and we hope the worst is behind us and that a clear and stable trade picture will bring additional tangible improvements. We are building the business for long-term success and acting on what we can control. This means achieving cost savings and efficiency gains while actively driving sales and planting the seeds for additional revenue opportunities. In envelope, the backlog remains healthy. We continue to gain momentum in the U.S. market, and our Central Canada operations are more efficient.

In packaging, key volumes have returned. The pipeline may be stronger than it's ever been in both folding carton and e-commerce packaging, and the refreshed structure is helping us drive new internal improvements and operating efficiencies. Our balance sheet is strong as we couple impressive free cash flow generation and low leverage. That balance sheet will get a further boost should we close the planned sale-leaseback transaction announced late last year, on which we continue to make steady progress. Given the performance, the outlook, and strong balance sheet, the company announced in its press release issued this morning that it intends to renew its NCIB to acquire for cancellation up to 5% of the outstanding shares, subject to TSX approval.

Furthermore, with the aforementioned solid financial position and improving fundamentals, we are active in the M&A space and looking for targets that will enhance absorption and reach in our main markets by way of tuck-in, synergistic acquisitions that can rapidly be integrated into existing operations. In closing, driven by strong teams and high-quality assets, our envelope and packaging businesses are well-positioned in their respective fields. I want to thank our employees for believing in our capacity to achieve our goals and for methodically executing our plan. This concludes our prepared remarks, and we're now ready to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. You will be heard at all acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. The first question comes from Max Ingram from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Max Ingram
Equity Research Associate, Canaccord Genuity

Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Just on the NCIB, so you intend to restart that. Does that imply that the lease-backs will be finished by the time the NCIB is restarted? Because I think that was the reason it had been paused last year. I just want to get a sense of the mechanics or timing on when you expect to be active on the NCIB.

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

I mean, we can't know with any great certainty that we'll actually close. We're making great progress. We expect that we will be able to announce transaction, but the two aren't necessarily related to one another.

Max Ingram
Equity Research Associate, Canaccord Genuity

Oh, okay. Thanks. That's helpful. My second question is on wondering if you can give an update on the CFO process. Is there an external search or any timeline just to give us a sense of how that's progressing?

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

Yeah. I mean, obviously, the organization wants and needs a CFO. We're active in the market looking for a replacement, and it takes time, and we expect that we'll have someone in place for this call next time.

Max Ingram
Equity Research Associate, Canaccord Genuity

Okay. Great. Just last one for me was the corporate costs were up a bit higher than I had modeled. Otherwise, other metrics, the segments were in line. How should we think about should we think about that normalizing moving forward?

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

I think we'll move to more traditional levels in the future. I mean, we do have corporate costs, the professional fees were up as a result of the sale-leaseback audit, some IT stuff, CFO search, and then we had a foreign exchange loss of CAD 300,000 in the quarter. I think the FX bounces around a little bit and is a little more volatile, but sort of the legal fees, professional fees will go back to more sustainable.

Max Ingram
Equity Research Associate, Canaccord Genuity

Okay.

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

A more traditional. Sorry.

Max Ingram
Equity Research Associate, Canaccord Genuity

Sorry. I didn't mean to cut you off.

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

Oh, no. Back to more traditional levels as opposed to more normal.

Max Ingram
Equity Research Associate, Canaccord Genuity

Okay. Thanks, Stuart. I'll hop back into queue.

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

Great. Thanks, Max.

Max Ingram
Equity Research Associate, Canaccord Genuity

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, if you have a question, please press star, then one. Our next question comes from Donangelo Volpe from Beacon Securities. Please go ahead.

Donangelo Volpe
Equity Research Analyst, Beacon Securities

Hey, good morning, guys. Just looking—and sorry if you answered this during the prepared remarks—but just looking at the 11% year-over-year average selling price decline in the envelope segment, can you guys go into more detail on the preparation you guys are completing regarding the tariffs and if we should expect these declines to continue throughout the remainder of this year?

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

Yeah. I mean, the average selling price decline was—and we tried to answer it a bit—but it's a little complex and there's a lot of moving parts. It's really a combination of U.S.-Canada mix. Right out of the gate, as you sell more in the U.S. than you do in Canada, that's going to have a negative effect on average selling price because average selling prices in the U.S. are lower than they are in Canada. Just as we prioritized U.S. shipping, U.S. customers in the quarter to get ahead of tariffs in January and February, we pushed more there. Much of the getting ahead of tariffs buildup went to wholesalers and other resellers who traditionally inventory product, and generally, they're sold at bulk prices or wholesale prices, so that's a lower average selling price.

There was a reduction in direct mail revenues, which are generally priced at much higher levels than the average. There was a real softening of the market sort of through January, February, and March for geopolitical and economic reasons.

Donangelo Volpe
Equity Research Analyst, Beacon Securities

Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

All set up.

Donangelo Volpe
Equity Research Analyst, Beacon Securities

Just sticking with the envelope side, the adjusted EBITDA margin came in a little bit lower than expectations. Just wondering if there's additional juice left in the optimization initiatives that you guys announced in 2024 to kind of drive the margin up a little bit from these levels.

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

Yeah. There are a few things, but the biggest impact to envelope EBITDA was average selling price. As we just talked about, average selling price is down because we prioritized U.S. volume over Canadian volume to get ahead of tariffs. Average selling price being sort of normal or what it's been in the past and the mix not changing so dramatically would have added significant juice, as you call it. The other part was—I mentioned it somewhat casually, maybe—that January and February, through Project North America, we moved 20 pieces of equipment. We decommissioned 20 other pieces of equipment through Q4. Into January and February, we exited the Concord facility, 85,000 sq ft at the end of February. There are some distractions, people getting used to their new surroundings, qualified envelope mechanics and operators running different equipment, different machines.

That's kind of settled down. I think the efficiency improvements that we saw in March will keep that sort of level of efficiency and productivity in the two big plants in Toronto adds a fair bit of juice as well.

Donangelo Volpe
Equity Research Analyst, Beacon Securities

Okay. Thank you. I appreciate the color there. I guess final question for me, just regarding prioritization of the capital allocation. Given current valuation, do you guys think you guys will be focusing on buying back shares, or are you guys going to continue to focus on debt reduction and kind of nimbleness for potential M&A in the packaging space?

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

Yeah, we have a great balance sheet and continue to generate a lot of free cash flow as we announced this morning. Subject to TSX approval, we are going to reinitiate the NCIB, which we suspended last year, concluded last year and did not renew. We intend to renew the NCIB as a form of returning value to shareholders. Sale-leaseback will allow us essentially to retire all of the outstanding debt, which provides a lot of nimbleness to do what we are doing. Referenced M&A that we are not looking, we are not swinging for the fences here right now. The intent is to be methodical at doing some tuck-ins that improve utilization and contribution in the factories. From a capital allocation standpoint, that is kind of where we are at.

Donangelo Volpe
Equity Research Analyst, Beacon Securities

Okay. Thank you. I appreciate you answering my questions, and I'll hop back in the queue.

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

Great. Thanks, Donangelo .

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Stewart Emerson for closing remarks.

Stewart Emerson
President and CEO, Supremex Inc.

Hey, great. Thank you, Operator. Thank you to all of you for joining us this morning. I really look forward to speaking with you again at our next conference call. For those of you in Montreal or the Montreal area, we invite you to attend our annual general meeting of shareholders to be held later today at 11:00 A.M. in downtown Montreal. Have a great day, and thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.

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