PetroTal Corp. (TSX:TAL)
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May 8, 2026, 2:22 PM EST
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

May 11, 2023

Operator

Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining the PetroTal Q1 results call. Your speakers today will be Manolo Zúñiga, CEO, and Doug Urch, CFO. If you would like to ask a question, please do so via the platform, and we will do our best to answer it within the time allotted. Please take it away, Manolo.

Manolo Zúñiga
President and CEO, PetroTal

Thank you, Jamie, good day everyone, and thank you for joining the PetroTal 2023 first quarter webcast, where we will provide a brief summary of our first quarter 2023 operational and financial results. If anyone wants further information on the company, please see our website for additional materials. My name is Manolo Zúñiga, and I'm the President and CEO of PetroTal, and I'm joined by my colleague, Doug Urch, Executive VP and CFO. If you have clicked on the link in last evening's press release, you should hopefully have signed up to the webcast, so you may see the slides on your screen. If you are having issues seeing them, please contact petrotal@celicourt.uk, and they will be able to assist you.

Before I begin, I need to mention that there are some disclaimers towards the end of the presentation, which I would urge you to read at your own leisure. As shown in Slide two, PetroTal is an onshore Peru-focused oil company that in just five years has become Peru's largest crude oil producer. The company is listed on London's AIM market, the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the U.S. OTC, having a market cap of approximately $500 million. We have a 100% working interest in the Bretana oil field, which we have expanded from minimal production to over 25,000 barrels of oil per day in late June 2022, and have been averaging over 20,000 barrels of oil per day for almost 12 consecutive weeks. Year to date, Bretana has already produced over 2 million barrels of crude oil.

The Bretana field has 2022 year-end 2P reserves of 97 million barrels and has an after-tax 2P input PV10 per share of $1.75 and 15 producing wells and three water disposal wells capable of disposing of approximately 50,000 barrels of water per day each. The company has been drilling its next horizontal well, the 15H, since April, is expected to have this well in production by mid-June 2023 for a cost of around $15 million. PetroTal sells oil via barges to three critical sales routes, as seen in our 3D country map.

Our priority sales route is via the Amazon River to a major terminal at the port of Manaus, Brazil, where recently we have upsized capacity to 20,000 barrels of oil per day or 600,000 barrels per month with a barge fleet totaling 1.5 million barrels of capacity at normal river levels. This route currently delivers the strongest economics and has been the main catalyst for the company to have delivered over 20,000 barrels of oil per day since the end of February 2023. We also sell oil to nearby Iquitos Refinery, where we sell around 1,500-2,000 barrels of oil per day at the Dated Brent prices. Lastly, we have a barge to pipeline route to Callao via the Petroperú-operated ONP pipeline for up to 20,000 barrels of oil per day.

This route was recently announced open in April, however, PetroTal has not yet resumed shipping through the pipeline at this time. We're very excited to communicate details of our first quarter 2023 results and reiterate our newly announced return of capital program and recent management team enhancement with the addition of Mr. José Contreras, who is now the company's Senior VP of Operations. Slide three summarizes key and selected Q1 2023 highlights. From an operational perspective, during the first quarter, we delivered just over 12,190 barrels of oil per day with approximately 12,600 barrels of oil per day in sales. This was a production increase of 18% over Q4 2022, despite being significantly production-constrained for much of January and February 2023.

Starting in late February, when barge transportation normalized from earlier in the year, the company has been able to average over 20,000 barrels of oil per day. As of early May 2023, the company has already made up the Q1 2023 production shortfall and is ahead of budget on a year-to-date basis. During Q1 2023, we invested approximately $33 million of CapEx focused on drilling and completing wells 4WD and 14H, along with other continuing infrastructure projects. As budgeted, our CapEx will be around in this level in Q2, slightly dropping in Q3 and slightly increasing in Q4 2023 as we complete our drilling program and remaining infrastructure projects. Note that the company has significant capital flexibility to defer or slow down certain projects should Brent price change from its current levels.

From a per-barrel perspective, this first quarter, the company delivered strong unit operating results compared to the previous Q4 2022 results. Lifting costs were $5.6 per barrel in the quarter versus $7.4 in Q4 2022 due to higher sales volumes and lower contracted field expenses in the quarter. Transportation costs were $2.1 per barrel versus $2.5 in Q4 2022 as a result of less floating storage and diesel costs. All in, the company was able to achieve a total OpEx per barrel cost of $7.7 versus the prior $9.9 per barrel, which is a very strong metric for the company.

The company is reiterating its full year guidance of between 14,000 and 15,000 barrels of oil per day with a capital program of $125 million. Will assess any guidance adjustments in early August based on half year actuals. Based on the last 80 days of production, we're confident we can outpace our first half production guidance and assess favorable conditions for the upcoming dry season at that time. Note, the company will have significant production behind pipe going into December and is able to quickly ramp up should additional offtake options come available. This was, after all, the overall strategy and ultimate goal when the decision of continuous drilling capital allocation was made late last year. If additional offtake does become available in the near future, we can simply turn up the dial and deliver higher production.

The company is currently drilling well 15H, which in the right-hand map of slide four is shown just west of the 11H well. We expect this well to be in production in mid to late June 2023, and to perform strong and in line with previously drilled wells. The recently drilled and completed 12H and 14H wells have been producing at slightly constrained rates of approximately 3,300 barrels of oil per day and 3,000 barrels of oil per day respectively since the beginning of May, and are in line with expectations. We have updated our commercial in slide five to include some additional offtake routes we are currently analyzing for sales viability. That we have expanded our barging fleet and created aligned goals with our Brazilian shipper, the company is now currently focused on reducing the total trip time on the Brazilian route.

This includes dedicated offloading tankers near Manaus, so the current barging fleet can avoid long unloading wait times at the current terminal. We estimate a commercial decision on this in the 2024 budget as we continue examining economic and technical aspects of these projects. Slide five also shows some of the other routes the company's examining, which include the OCP in Ecuador, delivering oil by barge at Pump Station number 5 and/or at the port of Yurimaguas, hence bypassing the initial section of the ONP, and even taking our oil directly to Lima as we did in 2019. Should these other routes be confirmed to be commercial and sustainable, the company anticipates another 20,000 barrels of oil per day of offtake availability. With slide six, we wanted to remind investors about the company's unique and simple value proposition.

Of most importance is our commitment to shareholders to deliver material year-over-year production growth while being able to maintain and grow a robust return on capital program underpinned by a large Free Cash Flow yields. Company has drastically enhanced its balance sheet over the last year and is now in a position to allocate capital in different ways with a commitment to always deliver safe and operationally excellent production operations. From a technical perspective, the strong aquifer support in our wells act as a natural water floor pressure support to provide ultra-low decline rates once the wells normalizes from flat production, as shown in the corresponding type curve slide of our corporate presentation. I will now turn over the meeting to our CFO, Doug Urch, who will provide a brief financial update.

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

Thank you, Manolo.

I'm Douglas Urch, PetroTal CFO. I would like to start off highlighting a few select financial items from our recent press release and financial statements with visual support from slide seven. From a balance sheet standpoint, PetroTal exited the quarter with over $71 million of total cash and is in a $71 million net surplus position considering other working capital amounts, including short and long-term debt. The ending Q1 2023 cash balance of $71 million is significant considering the company paid off $80 million in bonds during the quarter. With regular receivable collections from Petroperú and our Brazilian export shipper, the company has been able to monetize long-dated working capital. The company delivered solid financial metrics in the quarter with approximately 1.13 million barrels in oil sales, an 18% increase as compared to just under 1 million barrels in Q4 2022.

Following is a summary on key profit and loss line items. Net revenue of $68.5 million, representing $60.31 a barrel. Contracted Brent in the quarter was $80.32 a barrel, compared to $88.22 per barrel in Q4, with the Brazilian transportation differentials and oil price backwardation reconciling the amounts. Royalties for the quarter were $6.2 million, representing $5.49 per barrel, and includes social trust provisions. This was down approximately 10% from Q4 2022 due to oil price variations. Total gross operating expenses in the quarter were $8.7 million, $7.70 per barrel, compared to $9.5 million, $9.92 per barrel in Q4, driven by lower fixed contracted costs in the current quarter.

This resulted in net operating income of $53.5 million or $47 per barrel, compared to $48 million of $50 per barrel in Q4 of 2022. Q1 2023 free funds flow before all debt service and changes in non-cash working capital of $7.9 million, up from $4.3 million in the prior quarter. Positive net income for the quarter of approximately $17 million. Compared to $37 million in Q4, making it the 13th consecutive quarter a positive net income for the company. Note that net income is down on the quarter due to an unrealized change in the derivative value of oil in the ONP pipeline. On slide eight, cash flow guidance.

The company has reiterated its 2023 production guidance of 14,500 barrels of oil per day, a cash flow guidance of $220 million of EBITDA, and $125 million of CapEx, which will be further calibrated once Q2 2023 results become available in August 2023. PetroTal now estimates $85 million of after-tax free funds flow, an increase of $30 million from our original 2023 guidance due to greater than estimated tax loss carryforwards. We have now updated our free funds flow matrix on Slide eight to include the impact of the tax loss carryforwards, with almost every combination now generating positive free funds flow in 2023 without curtailing spending. Slide nine summarizes our cash sources and uses for 2023 and outlines our recently announced return of capital program.

The company now expects to exit the year with $60 million-$70 million in cash compared to our previous estimates of $50 million. Applications and administrative approvals are proceeding as expected with the dividend and buyback program, and with approvals expected shortly. The company expects to be able to purchase up to $3 million per quarter in shares, considering exchange volume restrictions. PetroTal is expected to receive formal ex-dividend date from the TSX next week and will provide a subsequent announcement of the $0.015 per share quarterly dividend payment that will be made in mid-June for shareholders on record at the end of May 2023. Note that as per our recently announced return of capital policy, the amount in dividends could increase in the future if available cash exceeds minimum liquidity requirements.

On slide 10, in conclusion, we feel the company has an extremely attractive entry point for interested new stakeholders with an estimated annualized dividend yield of between 10% and 11% and trading just over the PDP blowdown value on a per share basis. PetroTal has demonstrated over the last 75-80 days that it is capable of a stabilized and significant sales stream using only two out of the three sales routes previously available to the company. We will continue to add shareholder value as cash builds throughout the year by a thoughtful capital allocation. I thank you for your continuing interest, investor support, now turn the call to Celicourt for the Q&A session.

Operator

Thank you. Why don't we have a specific date yet for the dividend payout?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

The date will be determined. I'm awaiting a formal response from the TSX. The date is as was indicated in the past, we expect the payment to be June 15th.

Operator

Last week, we had 42 million shares trade on the TSX, almost double our average daily volume for 2023. Could this allow us to buy back more shares?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

The limitation on the buyback of shares is not necessarily well, it's more so tied to the volumes available in the market and the limitations set up by the exchange. We can only buy so many shares. That's the balance that we're working within.

Operator

Will PetroTal issue special dividends with excess monies? What period will these special dividends be issued in with respect to the month in the calendar?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

No specific dates can be identified at this point in time as it depends on the liquidity position of the company, as was mentioned in the press release. We will look at and announce further details as they become available and as the cash position grows.

Operator

What is the status on the USA listing upgrade?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

We are not currently pursuing any upgrade on the U.S. listing. We will look to enhance marketing in the U.S. and assuming, increased, shareholder interest in the U.S. may consider that. At this point in time, there are no plans for any further upgrade from beyond the OTC listing.

Manolo Zúñiga
President and CEO, PetroTal

Just as a reminder that, we graduated to the TSX board in February from the Venture Exchange last February.

Operator

Can you explain how the company will measure liquidity? Does it include restricted cash, and will draws on the credit facility be considered?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

Restricted cash will not be considered because it's not a liquid asset. We will look to see what credit facilities that we have in place beyond the current $20 million facility. That is part of liquidity. It's a matter of, you know, looking at resources that are available, and restricted cash would not be.

Operator

What is the buyback start date?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

It will be sometime before the end of May.

Operator

What is the latest update on the availability of the ONP pipeline?

Manolo Zúñiga
President and CEO, PetroTal

You know, the ONP, although operational now, we have not yet started sending volumes through until Petroperú's factory line is active again. We also want to make sure that the pipeline doesn't suffer any more cuts or anything like that. That's why in my remarks, I make the point to showcase that we may even look at bypassing that initial section of the pipeline that suffers the most damages. We're looking at all of that. The key word that I used on my remark was sustainability. That you need to keep in mind of that.

Operator

Thank you. When the water level is low, where is the most difficult part of the river? What is the section with the lowest water level? Will the tankers be able to travel into Manaus at all times? Is it possible to barge into Iquitos during dry season? What other possible routes described earlier are not affected from low water levels, if any?

Manolo Zúñiga
President and CEO, PetroTal

You know, something to keep in mind, is that we are next to the equator. Just as we go into Ecuador, it is we're on in completely opposite seasons, you know. In the Peruvian side, you may be in the dry season. Just north, you are in the wet season. Both are impacting the volumes in the Amazon River because you have rivers that are coming from the Ecuadorian side, the Colombian side, into the Amazon River. In the last year, most of the issues with the low water levels have been on the Brazilian side and not on the Peruvian side, you know?

That's why we're being very careful of not updating our production guidance until we have evidence of how the river is gonna behave, how the rains are gonna behave, as the dry season starts just about now. In August we should be able to let you know what that. Hopefully everything go back to normal, and we should be okay.

Operator

Why have tax loss carryforwards been revised upwards, if no new tax losses have been generated in recent quarters?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

That applies more so to the timing difference of losses that weren't needed for 2022 that become available for 2023.

Operator

Does free funds flow guidance of $85 million exclude debt repayment/raising, in which case does this translate into $25 million of funds flow after the net $60 million debt repayment?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

Free funds flow is basically EBITDA less CapEx, less tax. We paid off the debt with existing cash balances that we had in early 2022 from year-end of 2022.

Operator

Will the share buyback run for a whole year?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

Yes. Yes. It's a 12-month program and will be utilized throughout the year.

Operator

Are the local community trust agreements in place yet, and have the payments commenced?

Manolo Zúñiga
President and CEO, PetroTal

No. Unfortunately, the social trust fund, the bylaws for the trust fund, they have not yet been agreed. They were expecting to have a follow-up meeting among all of the parties later this week or next week. I'm expecting that at that time it'll be all settled. We have to set up a trust. My goal all along has been to have all of this working by midyear.

Operator

Is there any update regarding the plan to drill 2 exploration wells next year in the Osheki prospect? Do you anticipate that it would be hard to find a possible farm-out partner?

Manolo Zúñiga
President and CEO, PetroTal

You know, in the case of Block 107, we're pressing ahead with internal approval process. We have a situation where once we drill the well, in case it is a dry hole, some of the historical tax pools in Block 107, the entity, it will be available to use for Bretana. The net present value of those tax pools is approximately equal to the cost of the initial exploration well. This essentially give us somewhat a free look at what we may have in Osheki-Kametza. Then of course, if it is successful, those tax pools will be used in Block 107 as we drill the follow-up exploration well and future confirmation and development wells.

We do get the opportunity of a free look Block 107, which is quite amazing.

Operator

Do you prefer dividends or special dividend increases or share buybacks in the future?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

For the time being, we've approved approximately $3 million for buybacks, which is essentially what we believe is the maximum available at this point in time, considering our liquidity. If we have more Free Cash Flow, we will consider amending the program. For now, and for the short term, we would increase dividends along the way.

Operator

Will you be drilling Block 107 in 2024? Are you still looking for a partner? If so, why don't you do it alone?

Manolo Zúñiga
President and CEO, PetroTal

We are still working to obtain the permit to do the actual exploration well in Kametza. We may be able to obtain that permit, assuming we get board approval as well to move forward. We may be able to drill that well by before year-end 2024. I wouldn't be surprised that goes into 2025. I imagine, and I have mentioned this several times in the past, as we get closer to drill the well, we may have people coming to calling us. You know, in the meantime, I don't think people are gonna bother looking at Block 107.

Operator

How much oil could be exported through Ecuador?

Manolo Zúñiga
President and CEO, PetroTal

Well, at the moment we are reviewing that option, is to connect to the OCP that is set up perfectly for our type of crude oil. We're thinking that we could send, you know, 5,000 barrels or even more than that. We are looking at doing a pilot later this year.

Operator

Would you consider a tender offer in addition to the share buyback program?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

Not at this time.

Operator

Receivables balances, although lower in than in December, are still heightened. Have the levels of receivables, excluding Petroperú, increased?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

We continue to collect our scheduled payments from Petroperú and have not shipped any more oil to them. The increased receivables is as a result of increased sales to Brazil and Iquitos.

Operator

Thank you. Just a reminder that if you would like to ask a question, please do submit it via the platform. Did PetroTal sustain oil hedging losses in the past quarter? What % of our oil flows are hedged?

Doug Urch
EVP and CFO, PetroTal

We had a mark-to-market, valuation change, which is a non-cash, change due to the lower oil prices related to the oil in the pipeline.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time, so I will hand back to Manolo and Doug for closing remarks.

Manolo Zúñiga
President and CEO, PetroTal

Well, as always, we both appreciate the investors support. With the news of the dividends and shares buybacks is always doing what we have committed to do. We plan to continue doing that in the future quarters. Thank you so much.

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