We're joined. I don't know if we've done this before, but you know, two is better than one, I guess. We've got on my right here, Luc Fortin, President and CEO of TMX Global Markets. Further to my right, David Arnold, Chief Financial Officer with TMX Group. Gentlemen, thank you for joining us.
Thanks for having us.
Thanks for having us. Great.
I'll start with you, David.
Yeah.
Nearing the end of Q1 2026 here, how's this quarter shaping up for TMX and relative to your expectations?
Yeah. I mean, we report our results for the first quarter in a little over 7 or 8 weeks, first week of May. We do publish our stats, which I know, Jaeme, you're a very keen student of, and really we're very pleased with what we saw in January and February. Really what I'd like to do is just talk quickly through the kind of three key parts of the business that'll give you a flavor. I'll start with capital formation and I'll then hand it to Luc just to touch on markets, which he oversees, and then I'll end it off with Global Insights.
On capital formation, a really strong January and February from our stats. A lot of secondary financings, some IPO activity, early green shoots. Some of the activity in the early part of March with what's going on in the Middle East, I think has taken a little bit off the pipeline. The pipeline remains really strong as it relates to IPOs. What's been very interesting is our corporate solutions part of that business has really benefited too. A lot of corporate actions, some net interest income pickups and so forth.
Stay tuned for when we report in, as I said, seven or eight weeks. Maybe Luc just touch on markets.
Yeah. Obviously the beginning of the year where the Fed was a little tentative and central banks were a little tentative in terms of rate movements, you know, saw our derivatives be a little quieter in January. Then with all the both constructive and destructive volatility that we've seen since, the markets have just literally exploded. Our derivative business is doing exceptionally well. Our equity volumes are kind of, you know, similar to the levels we were seeing during the pandemic. You know, the only concern I have is around. I often talk about the dichotomy between constructive and destructive volatility. If we can get back to having a little bit clearer line of sight in terms of where central banks are going and whatnot, that will probably appease investors.
If the war continues to remain protracted, you know, we'll see globally what kind of impact that has on investor appetite.
Yeah. Global Insights, I mean, which is really primarily the recurring revenue businesses. TMX Datalinx continues to have a strong performance outlet. It's really based on the jumping off point, right, Jaeme, where we ended Q4. VettaFi, our assets under index continues to grow and we're really proud of how that is performing as what we refer to as a high growth business, which is high singles to double digits. Finally, you know, the business that we've owned and operated since late 2017, which is Trayport, our natural gas and energy trading platform out of London continues to perform really above our expectations of high single to double digits. We're off to a good start.
Good to hear. How about we jump into AI right away? Obviously some investors, the share price, perhaps reflecting that, AI eventually somehow disrupts parts of the market data and analytics ecosystem. How do you think about the risk for TMX, particularly within that Global I nsights?
It's interesting, Jaeme. I mean, you know, we see more opportunity than risk. You know, we never wanna say that the market has got it wrong, but we think that they got it wrong as it relates to our business. Sure, we're in some businesses where small elements could be disintermediated, but we can actually do that to ourselves to do it better, faster, cheaper. The real secret sauce is most of our franchise is pivoted on what we call proprietary data, right? If you just break it down, right, like Trayport, it's bringing together a network of brokers, traders, and exchanges. That data is proprietary in that environment. Could you use AI to replicate the software? Sure. But without the network connectivity, the software is meaningless.
The same thing would apply to the other parts of our business, right? Index and benchmark through VettaFi. Yes, you can use AI for a lot of the regression testing in the past, but the active portfolio recalibration and the secret sauce of how we will market and promote that is less AI disruptable. What we do see internally though is that, as I said, there's more opportunity. We think that there's a big opportunity for us to be more productive as a company. Our focus internally is on doing more with the same. Rather than increasing headcount, you know, and there's certain parts we might have to increase headcount, but a lot of the need for us to scale up can actually be done, you know, now using AI tools.
We're a big developer, you know, shop, as you know. I mean, we develop a lot of software in-house, so we're using a lot of the AI tools in there too. I would say, you know, the being caught up in that broad swath of market correction we consider to be a little bit premature and unjust, but time will tell.
Yeah. Yeah, and you mentioned data as being the key moat here. The question around data then is whether improvements in AI and trading automation, analytic capabilities does that actually increase the demand for high quality data such that TMX has? Or on the flip side, does it risk commoditizing parts of that data ecosystem?
It's a great question, Jaeme. Really two parts, right? The first part is the demand for the data continues to increase, and there will be an evolution of the business models as to how data is being charged. We've lived through this before when we went from a very much a point to point solution as it relates to data. You know, with the bulge bracket brokerage, you know, and trading firms purchasing data from us, and then the advent of algorithmic trading, high frequency trading. Those business models continue to adapt, and I think it will be the same here.
The point that you touched on, which is really the key one, is most of our clients are looking for raw data from us, whether they consume it using humans or artificial intelligence, versus us actually using artificial intelligence to generate insights and then selling those insights. Because most of our clients want the unique ability to generate their own insights to develop their own trading strategies.
Right.
Right. That's why we see it more of an opportunity and less of a disruptor.
Yeah. The other theme that's out there is tokenization, and maybe Luc, this is probably better for you. If tokenized assets become more widely adopted, you know, is this something that you see TMX operating that type of infrastructure, trading of tokenized assets? Again, the risk is do new competitors, new entrants emerge that can provide those capabilities?
I think when you look at tokenization, you wanna sort of categorize that into two parts. One element of tokenization where I think we have an absolute right to play is one where you're looking at creating means to facilitate payments. I think there's probably a lot of friction in post-trade globally. There are financial institutions that are having issues, you know, dealing, you know, large global firms that are having the need to move capital around, even within a variety of different balance sheets. Tokenization solves for a lot of these different things.
Mm-hmm.
Tokenization in the realm where it exists today, where it's happening in Asia and it's not a true replication of existing assets, I think that creates a bit of a problem because essentially you're fragmenting liquidity. You're taking liquidity, and you're taking it out of the realms of, you know, where you would use these different securities to kind of gain leverage. I'll use another example. The other example is one when you talk about, you know, seeing Apple trading somewhere in Asia right now. What people don't realize that it's trading on Coinbase or trading on these other digital platforms, they're not a true replication of the underlying asset. You know, very much like Nasdaq, we're big believers in you need to think about the issuers here.
When someone chooses to invest in Apple, it's not only to gain, you know, upward or downward exposure to it, you really wanna have, there's corporate actions, there's a whole series of things that are not being factored in.
Right.
The work that some of our, I guess, competitors or cooperators in the U.S. are doing is really taking a firm stance and working with the regulators around let's establish what the rules are around tokenization. The SEC has, you know, been pretty clear, these tokens are securities, and DTCC has worked on coming up with some very interesting alternatives. As you know, we sit beside the most liquid market in the world. To have significant market structure differences to them never works out well for Canada. I think having the ability to follow what the U.S. is doing around tokenization, and what DTCC is doing is they're allowing these tokens to be replicated and they connect back to the actual registry.
What that fluidity does is it ensures that you're not fragmenting liquidity. Imagine Apple gets tokenized. You buy the equivalent of 100 shares of Apple. You can trade it with someone, and when you trade it someone on payment rails, different payment rails in the traditional DTCC network, it will connect back into the registry and actually recognize this. That's great innovation, and we believe that that's probably a path that, you know, Canada will follow along. As far as the other efficiencies that it brings around payments, you'd need to be able to pay that Apple. Some folks don't feel comfortable in paying it in Bitcoin. Having these different tokens that have assets that could be used as means of payment, I think serves a purpose.
We as sort of the central registry, the operator of the central registry in Canada, in CDS and CDCC, I think leads to some great opportunities for us. We're working very, very closely with our U.S. partners to see, you know, what the best solution will be for the market.
Yeah. Still a lot to work through, but you know, TMX certainly in the middle of that. Maybe a question for both of you guys. You know, with AI tokenization, do you see this—maybe this is more for David, but do you see this more as a driver of consolidation of what could be fragmented global markets capabilities or infrastructure that is coming about? Is that an opportunity for consolidation?
Possibly. I think you really gotta look at the asset classes first, Jaeme, right? Like I think on cash equities, when we talk about tokenization, it's not something that we're seeing a big institutional demand for, right? But as Luc touched on, I think that there is a ton of collateral management and funding and liquidity friction in the system that tokenization absolutely can assist the large bulge bracket institutional players. So I think it has a place, but it has a place in the right spot. Then when you layer on AI, the jury's out as to how some of our clients are gonna be using AI, right? Are they going to use AI to really replace their traditional algos?
It's really now a self-sustaining, living, breathing, if you will, algo that is machine learning-based with generative AI on top of. That's to be determined. I mean, you know, any of our clients, when Luc talks to them.
They're skeptical that they can actually get their hands around it. One of the key things you're doing as a trading firm when you do algorithmic trading is making sure that it does what your investment hypothesis is intended to be, and if it is being done where it's actually thinking itself, what's your kill switch and how do you actually manage that? Luc, I know you've got some thoughts about this whole ecosystem too.
Yeah. I think, you know, to imagine greater consolidation as a result of that, you're getting a bunch of innovation, and innovation's gonna bring sort of new parties, bringing new perspectives in terms of how you can use these new instruments. I think competitiveness is great, but I think you need rules of engagement, and we're finally seeing some rules of engagement. The U.S. administration is certainly putting a lot of pressure on modernization and thinking sort of outside the box to bring greater efficiencies to the marketplace. You know, we've had the privilege of running, you know, markets for 175 years next year for TSX and 150 for MX.
Innovation is in our DNA. To see innovation happen, it just can't be innovation for innovation's sake. It has to be innovation that serves a better purpose. We'll be supportive of that and, you know, I welcome this new innovation that's coming to market. We'll work very closely with regulators to make sure that, you know, the public interest mandates that we hold dearly are serving our clients well.
Yeah. Okay. I think that's a good, you know, round of those topics. Maybe let's switch to some of the interesting growth strategies and initiatives that have been underway, probably for you, Luc. The Alpha X US that was launched over a year ago now. Volumes are doing well. Maybe give us an update on how that platform is performing versus expectations. You know, what are the priorities? What are you looking to do here in 2026 for Alpha US?
Alpha X US, for those who aren't familiar with this platform, this is our inaugural launch in terms of entering the U.S. equity market. There are a variety of ways that you could do this, and we chose to be innovative to kind of compete on a different realm. Alpha X US caters to the segment of the market that is really focused on quality of execution. This quality of execution market probably stands around 7% of the ADV that trades right now. Our view is that it'll grow beyond 10%.
When this thing launched early in 2025, it actually exceeded every benchmark that we had set for ourselves in terms of, you know, where some of our competitors that are in that realm are doing at the same period of time as we're doing. A very, very good year. This is a long-term investment for us. You know, we're not watching this to say, "Hey, tomorrow we're gonna be at the maximum we can be for an ATS at 2%." We're seeing very good adoption. There's great engagement with the type of functionality that it brings. The AlphaX Hub allows how, you know, participants can kind of interact with each other, and that's brought a lot of interest to bear. We're seeing, you know, great onboarding, great uptake in terms of the innovation.
We were recognized for a couple of prizes in terms of technology. Again, just remembering that when you go, and you innovate, and you disrupt a different market, this is not in your own jurisdiction, but we're using this as a testing ground, right? The U.S. is the most liquid market on the planet, and we've got new technology that was built for us that is actually driving this platform, and our longer term plans are to take this technology and port it back into, you know, what drives all of our other markets here in Canada, including our derivatives business. It's very exciting to see all of this innovation and what it's done for us. You know, there are new books that are being contemplated, additional functionality that will be added onto this.
You know, just to give the audience a sense of the scalability of this business, that's the beauty of when you're a small global market operator and you're going into the largest market. If we're successful with this, if we reach 1% of that 10%+ addressable market, that represents close to 50% of the entire revenue stream of our equity business in Canada, j ust to put things into perspective. It's a unique way to kind of enter a new market without just buying market share and trying to make a big push. But that's, you know, one of the elements that we have in mind in terms of future growth for us.
Oh, it's been really interesting there, Jaeme. As we've actually had Luc and I were on some business development trips recently in the U.S., and some of the clients of AlphaX US are now talking to the folks in Canada about trading in Canada too. An unintended byproduct, that's really a good outcome.
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you gave us some revenue sizing margins roughly similar to Canadian equity markets. Is that-
I think that would be the best comparison. Yeah.
Right. One of the other initiatives, post-trade modernization, a lot of heavy lifting over several years, but now it's almost been a year. I think it was this time last year you announced it was launched.
Yep. April.
You know, what have you seen so far in terms of benefits, operationally, and then I think more importantly for investors in terms of new revenue opportunities here for investors?
I mean, I could not imagine being in this environment with our old mainframe. Like, imagine, you know, as this tokenization elements, the interaction of, you know, the digital world with, you know, the traditional world in the state that we were previously would not have allowed us to feel this comfortable in this type of environment. We're actually ahead of the pack relative to a lot of like DTCC. They're doing this, and they're in the midst of their own modernization. OCC is the same thing. There are a lot of other global CCPs that have not done this modernization.
For us, it took a while, but we got there. I think the incremental efficiencies of a much more modern platform is to, you know, reassure investors that this is obviously very secure. You're no longer running on mainframes. There's no longer any operational risk. We're very excited at the prospects of future opportunities. Keep in mind, CCMS, which is the Canadian Collateral Management Service that was also launched last year, coincidentally, you know, with the launch of PTM, that is kind of, imagine the new plumbing of the Canadian financial markets, the ability to move collateral around in a more efficient fashion. Had we not modernized our post-trade CDSX, this is the main driving engine that powers a lot of this CCMS functionality that we've enabled.
That's just one example of probably many different things that we'll be able to do with this new modernized refresh infrastructure. It's not sexy. It's the plumbing. It sits behind the walls.
Yeah.
It's so critical to, you know, Canadian investors.
What's interesting here, Jaeme, and baseball season's upon us, so I'll use our CEO's analogy. There are a lot of singles to be hit here. You know, it's, they're not, you know, home runs and, you know, massive needle movers, but, you know, you start adding up all the singles, and as Luc is rounding out in that CDS ecosystem, what we can do to actually help individuals manage collateral. We touched on the tokenization, how we can help ensure that liquidity isn't being fragmented, I think is gonna really pay dividends for us in the next few years. I would watch this space quite closely.
Yeah. Something maybe for 2027, I guess, is kind of the idea that I'm picking up here. Just looking at the time here, maybe let's step up a little bit, get out of the weeds. You know, TMX has long had the objectives of driving revenues 50% outside of Canada, two-thirds recurring revenue, half coming from Global Insights. Walk us through that path, and those targets, and then layer in how M&A is gonna help to achieve those targets.
Yeah. It's a great question, Jaeme. In the interest of time, I'll try and be as brief as possible. I think each of those three transformational measures in quotes as we refer to them, they had a specific objective, right? Our business, as Luc said, you know, over 170 years old, for the vast majority of our existence has been predominantly a Canadian business, which means we go as the Canadian macroeconomic goes. What we decided as a management team and the board, that we wanted to ensure that we were at least a little bit more balanced so that geopolitical movements were really balanced in our results, and we weren't skewed one way or the other. Hence the objective of, let's at least have greater than 50% of our revenue outside of Canada, right?
We're around 51% right now. We have no aspirations to grow that number much higher because it will literally be a function of how our Canadian businesses grow in the Canadian macroeconomic environment, how our non-Canadian businesses grow outside of Canada, right? That's kind of the objective of that one, which is really to balance the earnings and at least balance the risk profile. The second one which you touched on, which is really our Global Insights business, we would like that business to be half of the revenue of the organization, in part because we saw the greatest opportunity for accelerated growth in that area, right? We saw ourselves not being in the index and benchmark space other than the work that we do with S&P. We said, there's a lot of thematic bespoke work.
That's an area we can play. Well, if you're gonna play in a whole new part of a vertical, that vertical is gonna naturally grow, right? That's part of that stated objective. We've been very clear. We don't wanna starve the core part of our business, right? Capital formation, corporate solutions, markets. It's really been a much longer transformational measure, which is, you know, it's something that if you look at it quarter by quarter, it hardly moves. If you can zoom out five or ten years, you'll then start seeing the movement. The last one is really to have two-thirds of our revenue be more recurring than transactional. Once again, we're not gonna get there by starving our transactional businesses.
We're very comfortable with the incredible transactional performance that we've had out of our markets business, and out of our capital formation business. Yeah, if that means it's gonna take us a little longer to get to two-thirds, so be it, right? That's kind of the macro overlay. Then M&A for us, we do not have an M&A strategy, if you will, Jaeme. We are all about our corporate strategy for growth. M&A is just one of those areas where we can accelerate it, right? Sometimes we choose to build it ourselves, sometimes we choose to partner, and sometimes we choose to buy. Hence, there's more of the M&A in that third leg. Alpha X US is a great example.
We chose to build that from scratch, and we did an outstanding job, and we got that done within 18 months, and it's exceeded all of our expectations so far. That's kind of the high level if I take it up to the top.
Right. In terms of like the M&A pipeline, it's been, I'd say, relatively active for TMX. What's that outlook here for the next 12 to maybe 20 months?
You know, can't talk about what I can't talk about. What I can tell you, Jaeme, is that we look at a lot of things. They are all rooted on, as I said a minute ago, our strategy and accelerating the strategy. As we've said repeatedly, we are not shy to, you know, do M&A in capital formation or in markets. It's not all just about our Global Insights business. What I can tell you is the portfolio of businesses that we're looking to expand into is quite balanced. Now, depending on when we get certain things over the finish line, if we do, they might skew one way or the other.
If you give us time to have the fullness of our aspirations for growth kind of come to fruition, you'll then be able to see that it's not just skewed towards one part of the business. It's quite diversified. For example, adding Newsfile to corporate solutions, you know, was very important for us because we see a lot of white space there to support companies. At a high level, stay tuned. Yeah. If we've got something to report, we will put out a press release and we'll call an analyst call.
Excellent. We're right at time here. Any final thoughts to leave investors with today?
Um-
From either-
The thing that I would leave you with before I hand it to Luc is, we are on it. We think that there are some fundamental shifts in the marketplace. Some of it is a little bit more hype than reality. That's our job. Our job is to kind of cut through the chaff and figure out, you know, what we need to pivot. We've often spoken about being a fast follower, and I'll hand it over to Luc, 'cause I think that's part of how we see the tokenization digital in 2024, 2027.
Yeah, I think for us, the focus is to get, you know, to continue doing what we've excelled at for all these years, is innovation. Bringing, you know, innovation to our participants. We really are a big believer in community, involving, you know, the entirety of the ecosystem to help build things together.
As we globalize, you know, what's interesting is that these partners that we were talking about, we were in Boca a couple weeks back and the amount of interest in Canada is absolutely spectacular and it's coming, you know, to us to say, "Hey, how do we partner with these existing firms that we're doing business with to bring Canada to the world and vice versa, bring the world to Canada?" In our view, a lot of interesting growth opportunities for us in the years to come. You know, it's the working model that we've been espousing for a long time that seems to be working. Why fix something that isn't broken? Keep doing the same thing.
Excellent. All right. We're there.
Sure. Thank you.
We're at time, everybody. We'll see you at lunch. Gentlemen, thank you again.
Thank you.
Our pleasure. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it.
Excellent.