Alvopetro Energy Ltd. (TSXV:ALV)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Mar 20, 2024

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Webcast, I'm Corey Ruttan, President and CEO, and I'm joined by Alison Howard, our CFO, and Adrian Audet, our Vice President, Asset Management.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Good morning, everyone. Just a few administrative items before we start. We are recording today's earnings call, and there will be a replay on our website later today. All participants are in listen-in-only mode. We will be having a Q&A session at the end of our presentation. If you're logged in online and watching on Zoom, you can use the Q&A button at any time to log your questions, and we will get to those at the end of our presentation. If you are dialing in, you can send us an email at socialmedia@alvopetro.com, and we will answer the questions that we get by email. And then lastly, you know, as per usual, we do go through various non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements.

So please, we encourage you to review all of the cautionary statements and other advisories that you'll find in our corporate presentation, at the end of that corporate presentation that's on our website. With that, I'll hand it back over to Corey.

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Great. Thank you, Alison. Okay, so just to show this chart that we often show, it shows all of our production history since starting our production from our Caburé field back in July of 2020. You can see in 2023, we did have a decrease due to some demand disruptions within the state of Bahia with our offtaker, Bahiagás, particularly in the second and third quarters. We also saw some higher nominations from our partner at the Caburé unit, which did impact the amount of production available to Alvopetro. So, the net result is, you can see we actually had an increase in the fourth quarter of 2023, up to 2,143 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

That was a 26% increase over the third quarter, and our 2023 average production averaged almost the exact same number at 2,142 barrels of oil equivalent per day. We did see lower demand from Bahiagás at the start of 2024. You can see that in the January and February production that we've already announced. We did have that production increase up again in March. We announced yesterday that our gas production for March to date is a little over 11 million cubic feet a day, which is up from just over 8 million cubic feet a day in that February number that you see there, so about a 35% increase.

Adrian Audet
VP, Asset Management, Alvopetro

In the last month, we updated our reserves contingent and prospective resource report with GLJ as the evaluators, and this was previously announced in February 26th this year. Just some highlights of this report. We had 0.8 million barrels of oil production produced in 2023, but we only saw our 2P reserves decrease by about 0.3 million BOE. The primary reason for that is we had additional volumes associated with the Caruaçu zone within our Murucututu field that we're pursuing, sorry, and we'll talk more about that in a few later slides. And this increase more than offset some of our technical revisions and production results from other wells in the fields.

Alvopetro continues to focus on de-risking and unlocking the contingent resource reports and values we have associated with these fields at the Murucututu. A note on the Caburé asset, these reserves are based on the 49.1% working interest as of December 31st, and that redetermination of this is currently underway. The chart below shows the build-up and the relative magnitude of the 1P, 2P reserves, as well as the contingent prospective resource report value. We also plotted the enterprise value of Alvopetro, and it's just under half of the total 2P value of the reserve report. Here we can see our gas pricing that we use in the reserve report evaluation. This is from our GSA with the offtaker, Bahiagás.

If you recall, this gas pricing is reset semi-annually, so February and August, with the last reset February of this year. So this is based on three benchmark pricing, Henry Hub, Brent pricing, and National Balancing Point in the U.K. You can see the historical pricing as well as the forward-looking pricing that's from GLJ Petroleum Consultants. And then the green line on the top is the ceiling price, and the red line is our lower price with the contract, and then the Alvopetro effective price is the black line you see there, and it's effectively tracking the ceiling price in the near term here. We have a strong natural gas price relative to our peers with the downside protection from the lower price here.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

So just diving into the results from the quarter and for the year, so building off what Adrian was talking about, and our realized price overall in the quarter, if you recall, this chart here shows our operating netback. That's our profitability per barrel of oil equivalent. We express it per barrel of oil equivalent. That's the green bar that you see. So we were just under $70 in Q4 2023. So, our realized price overall was $77.60, so that includes, our natural gas price, a realized price of $12.85 per Mcf in Q4. It was just down marginally from Q3, mostly due to foreign exchange. We do get paid in local currency, and there was a slight devaluation of the Brazilian real relative to the U.S. dollar.

So our overall realized price decreased from $78.90- $77.60 in Q4. And then from that realized price to compute our netback, we take off royalties, that's shown in orange, and then our operating expenses, production expenses in gray there. Royalties were once again quite low. Recall that our natural gas royalties are based off of the equivalent value of raw, unprocessed gas, so closer to Henry Hub. So with Henry Hub pricing staying relatively low, our royalty rate was about 2.7% in the quarter. And then our production expenses, we did have a 26% increase in production from Q3 that Corey was talking about earlier. So on a per BOE basis, our production expenses did go down.

We did see a slight increase overall in dollar terms on our production expenses, but with those higher volumes, it decreased per BOE. And we ended the quarter with a netback of $69.69, and that's very similar to year-to-date 2023, which was just under $69 netback. And overall, if you look at that green bar relative to the realized sales price at the top there, we show our netback margin as a percentage of that price, and at 90% in the quarter and overall for the year, that's, you know, quite remarkable. And on the next slide, we like to compare that to other companies operating in Latin America and in North America.

Compared, comparatively speaking, Alvopetro's netback margin at 90% is, you know, over 40% higher than those other companies. So it's very high, very profitable production that we have, and when you combine that with our, our low tax rate, we are eligible for a tax incentive in Brazil, and it reduces our effective tax rate to just over 15%. You know, it makes us very happy to be operating in Brazil with this kind of fiscal regime. So moving on to funds flow for Q4. Just a reminder, funds flow is a non-GAAP measure. It's most close to cash flow from operating activities, but before adjusting for working capital. So we saw an increase in just under $3 million from Q3 to $12.4 million of funds flow for Q4.

Most of that was that 26% increase in sales volumes. You know, we did see, like I talked about before, a slight decrease in the realized price and a slight increase in production expenses with higher production, and also bringing our Bom Lugar six well on production. Current tax also was marginally higher in the quarter with higher earnings, and then G&A was actually a little bit lower with some final year-end bonus adjustments. Ended the quarter with $12.4 million of funds flow. And then annually, funds flow also decreased here by about $2 million. Again, the big change was in the sales volumes. It was sales volume were down about 16%, but our realized price was 12% higher, so that offset a lot of that.

Royalties were also lower, just with lower Henry Hub pricing in the period, and then also lower sales overall. And other income was higher, higher interest income in the period, and then offset by higher production expenses and current tax. Just last year, we benefited from some costs that were immediately deductible for tax purposes, and we didn't have as much of that. But overall, our effective tax rate is still very low in Brazil due to that incentive we received. So we had funds flow of just over $48 million. So moving on to net income. Our Q4 net income was $652,000, so that was a decrease of just over $5 million from Q3.

The main reason for that, you know, despite having higher production and sales in the period, was we did recognize impairment losses of $11 million. So that was on two different properties. It was on our Bom Lugar field, just $4.2 million on Bom Lugar, and then on one of our exploration assets, Block 182. So that was the main reason for the difference in the quarter, partly offset by some foreign exchange gain, higher foreign exchange gains, and then a deferred tax recovery compared to an expense in the period.

And then looking at our net income annualized, again, you know, similar to the Q4 explanation, the big difference there is on the impairment, and the current tax was marginally higher, and then offset by lower deferred tax and higher foreign exchange gains. So just moving on to our balance sheet, you know, we ended the year with $13.1 million of working capital. That included cash of $18.3 million, so a very strong financial position at December thirtieth. Our working capital was, or December 31st, our working capital was $1.7 million higher than September 30th. And just a reminder, you know, we are debt-free. We had a credit facility previously in place that was fully repaid, and we've been debt-free since September of 2022.

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

All right. Thank you, Alison. So yesterday, we declared our first quarter of 2024 dividend at $0.09 per share. That represents a current yield at our current share price of about 8.8%. We obviously did reduce the dividend this quarter, and that was just to align with our long-standing balanced stakeholder return and reinvestment model. And you can see since the inception of the dividend in the third quarter of 2021, it represents over $40 million or $13 per share in dividends returned to shareholders, so we're pretty proud of that.

This slide walks through that balanced capital allocation model that I talked about, where we're looking to reinvest roughly half of our cash flows in our business and return the other half to stakeholders. So if you focus on the bars on the upper left chart here, the line, the green line with the black dots, just shows the cash flow or funds flow from operations per quarter. As Alison noted, we had funds flow of $12.4 million in the fourth quarter, and then each of these stacking bars just represents where, on a quarterly basis, we've allocated that funds flow. So you can see early on here, the vast majority of it went to repaying our debt and paying some interest. The green cross-hatch lines here is that debt repayment.

We did that on an accelerated basis. We introduced the dividend, which is the dark green in the third quarter of 2021. Very little yellow bars, so that's the reinvestment. And that's partly because we actually had pre-invested a lot of capital in developing our Caburé asset before it came on production. And then more recently, you can see this being a bit more balanced, where we've got some capital reinvestment happening, as well as the stakeholder returns. So if you look at it in total, since coming on production from Caburé, this is where all of the funds flow has basically went. We've had cumulative funds flow from operations now of over $130 million. Of this, the yellow, 44% of it's been reinvested in the business.

Almost, almost exactly, 48% has gone to stakeholders in the various shades of green. So between our capital lease payments, debt repayments, interest dividends, and some share repurchases, you can see where that's all went. And then the remaining 8% is just what's been basically dedicated to strengthening our balance sheet, growing that cash position that Alison talked about, and it gives us flexibility for our future operations. So, we think we've built a pretty strong platform. Our focus is very focused on our next phase of growth. You can see our near-term target is to look at getting to 18,000,000 cu ft a day, which is 3,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and a longer-term vision to basically double that.

On our core base of operations, our gas plant now has a capacity of at least 18 million cubic feet a day. At our Caburé unit, we are looking to expand the productive capacity of the unit this year with a development drilling program, as well as the installation of compression. And then probably the biggest growth opportunity we have in our inventory is our Murucututu project. This is a 100% working interest project, and it sits immediately north of the Caburé unit. So the Caburé unit sits. Hopefully, you can see my pointer, but it sits right in the middle of the map sheet, and our Murucututu asset sits immediately to the north of that. So firstly, this year, what we're looking to do is completion and optimization projects on our three existing wells that we've invested in here.

They're all pipeline connected to our central field processing facility at the 183-1 location. So our 197-1 well, we're looking to do a chemical treatment here very soon. On our 183-1 well, we're looking to do a recompletion and stimulation of at least one of the upper Caruaçu zones that previously tested gas. And then lastly, our most recently drilled well at 183-3, we're just in the process of completing a production logging operation that will help us finalize our completion plan for that well, and we look to do that sequentially with the work at 183-1. So we're finalizing the plans and services for all that work, but we're hoping to execute that all in the second quarter here.

One of the other things that we've been doing just south of the 183 well pad that we have here, we're constructing a new 183-D well pad. So following all that optimization work, we'll now be positioned with three well pads that are all pipeline connected to our centrally located facility, and we can drill multi-zone development wells from each of those three well pads. GLJ has assigned a combination of the reserves, best estimate, contingent and prospective resource to this asset. So you can see 4.6, 5.4, and 9.6 million barrels of oil equivalent respectively.

So our goal here is to migrate all the reserves there to production, the reserves and resources into production and cash flow, which will help underpin our longer term growth plans here in the state of Bahia. So in conclusion, I certainly believe Alvopetro continues to offer an attractive investment proposition, no matter what your investing focus is. As Alison pointed out, I think we continue to deliver some pretty strong results. We've got very attractive natural gas pricing with industry-leading operating margins, a clean balance sheet, and strong free cash flow generation capacity that all help support our balanced reinvestment and stakeholder return model. For value investors, as Adrian pointed out, we're trading at less than half of our 2P NPVs.

For yield investors, the 9% dividend that we declared yesterday represents an 8.8% dividend yield, with quarterly dividends paid in U.S. dollars. And for growth investors, I think we've got a pretty exciting and organically funded capital program ahead of us, with a lot of potential relative to our current enterprise value. So with that, I'll stop sharing the presentation, and we'll turn it over to the question and answer period.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Sure. A question we have here is with respect to Bahiagás, who is our natural gas customer. What do you think Alvopetro's risk exposure is, given that we have one main customer on whom all the prospects are dependent?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah. So first of all, you know, from a risk perspective, you know, this is probably the best counterparty to be dealing with for the area that we're in. We do have a location advantage with Bahiagás, whereby we're directly connected into the distribution network, so that helps us realize higher net realized prices, and it does create an advantage for the local consumers as well. So, you know, one of the things we're looking to do, I guess, to manage that risk exposure as it was portrayed as is.

I think the single biggest thing that we can do is add more 100% working interest production to our portfolio, and then in turn, we can increase our firm nominations to Bahiagás, which would then increase kind of the floor or base guaranteed revenues that we have from that counterparty. Now, that being said, we are looking at at other alternatives to add flexibility, but recognize the advantages that I talked about earlier. The last dynamic, you know, Bahiagás had committed a lot of their their demand, or, like, the the natural gas supply side of their book of business for both last year and this year.

They're going through a process now to define what that looks like for 2025, so they've got a lot more flexibility, moving into next year, which I think will help mitigate those risks as well.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Okay, what is your guidance for CapEx and drilling for 2024, and when do you see production volumes rising over 2,000 BOE per day?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

That one for me?

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Well, I can answer it, you know.

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah, if you want to do the capital part of it.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Okay, so in our public disclosure and in our press release yesterday, you know, the main, as Corey talked about, our main focus is working on our 100% Murucututu asset. So we have projects to optimize production from the three existing wells on that field. That's an estimated cost of $4.2 million. So we'll be working on that, you know, over the next little while here, and then future development there will, you know, follow that, depending on those results. On our Caburé field, we have agreed to a five-well development plan with our partner. And our estimated cost over the next couple of years would be $6.2 million at our 49% working interest. And then also, we have a compression project planned, that's 100% Alvopetro, just over $3 million.

Those are the main, the main CapEx projects that we have coming up.

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Okay. Yeah, and I think the answer to the second part of that question is really. It's two parts. It depends a little bit on the production allocations that we're getting from the Caburé unit, as well as both the pace of development within our Murucututu asset, as well as the tight curve, basically, that we're generating from drilling new wells there. So, obviously, with better results, we would need fewer wells and less time to reach that objective. So it's a difficult question to answer with, you know, down to the month.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

So we have some questions around Murucututu and unlocking the value there, given recent exploration and production results, and what are our thoughts there, specifically with respect to 183-A3?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah, so that's why I guess our capital program initially is focused on the initial three wells, 'cause we think we have a lot of potential in those three wells. A good example of that is our 183-1 well. I think, in fairness, the expectations out of the Gomo Zone have been below expectations, but we've got the same Caruaçu sands that we encountered in the 183-A3 well, sitting right above the Gomo Zone in that well. We actually tested gas a long time ago from that well. So this, from our perspective, is an opportunity to optimize the fluids that we're using for the completion, optimize the stimulations, and, you know, in at least one of those Caruaçu zones, demonstrate the potential that we have there.

And then we can apply those learnings to the 183-A3 well, which we've already announced. Like, we've got a tremendous amount of potential in that pay there. We've completed it with the sliding sleeves that give us, on a conventional basis, very limited access to the reservoir, but with a stimulation allows us to. You know, the objective there is to access a much bigger component of the reservoir. So step one, we're figuring out what sleeves we want to have open versus closed, and then we'll design the stimulations and the final completion after that work. So, and then in sequence, then we'll take all those learnings and apply them to the future drilling, development drilling locations.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Okay, and then we have a question here on: Do you have any sense that any of the demand disruption is related to your established pricing relative to others, or are your prices still generally competitive?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah, I, I think some of the things that you've seen with Bahiagás are more a function of what they're trying to do with their business, and they've got a very kind of low-risk approach to this: they're making an estimate of what their demand is for 2024. And then well in advance, like, before the year even started, they're basically going to all their different counterparties and filling up their slate of gas supply on a firm basis. They want to make sure that's contracted firmly. And in addition, they're contracting the transportation. So unlike the gas that comes from us, a lot of the other gas comes from other parts of the country, and the gas supply part needs to be matched with the transportation.

So I think some of those earlier decisions on those commitments has been impacting their ability to certainly take flexible gas, for example. So, you know, I don't think we're necessarily the cheapest gas from every. Like, there's 9 or, well, 12 different suppliers now for Bahiagás, but I think our gas is certainly competitive.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Okay, we have a question on what are our plans. I think we had a question on the plans for Murucututu field, which I think we went through in a lot of detail, and then, but we haven't really spoken yet about Bom Lugar. So if we wanted to talk about Bom Lugar?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Okay.

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah, sorry about that. And I think that this leads on to the very first question that I answered, is, you know, I think given our strategic infrastructure position, given our desire to increase our 100% working interest natural gas production, obviously, our priority is Murucututu. I think we still have potential at Bom Lugar, but when you look at the depth of our development drilling inventory at Murucututu, that's obviously a bigger priority for us.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Okay. Sorry, I'm just goin. There's a question here: Can you provide any additional color on new development work at Caburé?

Adrian Audet
VP, Asset Management, Alvopetro

Yeah, well, I can handle that. So at Caburé, there's two major projects. One is the development drilling program, where we have a five well infill drilling program to target both the Caruaçu and the Pijuca reservoirs within the unit. And then, the other major chunk of capital is a unit compression system. So we're gonna be installing two natural gas compressor units that'll lower the operating pressure of the entire field and increase the deliverability from the field.

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah, and I think the answer that Alison gave earlier on the capital program recognized that in all likelihood, some of that, development drilling capital will probably be in this year, and some of it will probably be in 2025, is our guess.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Another question around Brazilian gas demand. Has there been a significant impact on gas demand due to high hydro reserves and the impact of renewables growth? And if so, how much of this is one-off and how much is structural?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah, no, I think there is certainly a push for renewable energy in Brazil, and you're seeing that segment of the energy supply matrix increase. I don't have the specific percentages for you. I think some of the demand disruptions that you saw last year were not just in Bahia. There was some felt more broadly in Brazil. A lot, you know, a good chunk of that had to do with the timing of major turnarounds of facilities and plants. So, you know, I don't think we have a big structural gas demand challenge in Brazil.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Okay, can you give a more detailed update on Block 183 and the 183- B1 well, and the follow-up work this year? Are there any prospective resources booked with regards to the prospectivity?

Adrian Audet
VP, Asset Management, Alvopetro

Yeah, that's a great question. So for this wellbore, no, there is no contingent or prospective resource associated with the discovery we made there. That's not included in any of our evaluations with GLJ as of yet. Internally, we're still reviewing the effectiveness or efficacy that we would see from a fracture simulation from that well, and making plans accordingly, so that we can go in and do the right completion, and see what we can do from a production rate. Now, as we previously disclosed, the conventional rates were low, but we still think there's something to pursue, but it's, again, not in our prospective or contingent resource.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Okay, so we have a couple questions around the value proposition. Is the value proposition today and going forward different than it was two years ago, given recent difficulties, i.e., the impairments that we just announced?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah, well, we've seen a fairly large devaluation in our share price, so I think it's relative to that. I think. You know, I think we've significantly de-risked a big part of our corp. If you look back to the time before we came on production, obviously, we've. You know, between completing the construction of our gas plant, getting our gas sales agreement in place, getting the unit development, there's a lot of those initial risks that we've kind of overcome. I think our risk's now shifted more to, you know, being weighted on kind of the Murucututu development that we're undertaking over the next several years. So there's probably a bigger component weighted to that, as opposed to the original construction of our assets.

So it's all relative to our share price. Obviously, if you look at, if we have success at our expected levels, if you look at the amount of reserves, production, and cash flow we can potentially add from Murucututu, it's a pretty big opportunity.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

On that value proposition, there was another follow-up question. Is there anything that the company can do to give value to the shareholders, and send a message to calm the markets, given the recent drop today?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah, well, I think the biggest thing is we need to stay focused on our business plan and deliver results, and it's focused on, on our upcoming. You know, a big chunk of that is focused on our Murucututu work coming up.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Okay, and then we have a few questions around the redetermination at the unit, which includes our Caburé field. Can you speak any more to your expectations? Is it potentially lower 2P reserves, and is that part of the reason for cutting the dividend?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Okay, so that's two. A couple parts. So first of all, we're right in the middle of this, so it's hard for us to comment on it. We do expect a final result here, near the end of March or in the early part of April. And, you know, depending on that result, yes, it does have the ability or, or the potential to impact our reserves positively or negatively. I would say it did not at all impact our decision on our Q1 dividend. The Q1 dividend was, you know, purely a function of, look, this was our production and cashflow that we're estimating. You know, this is the portion that we've said gets allocated to stakeholders, and that's the portion that we're paying.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Do you have any update on the timing of when you will find out the final decision on this arbitration and agreement with the partner?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah, sorry, that was. Like I said, at the end of it'll be the. We're expecting it to be late March or early April.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Okay, and are you looking to find other lands for growth if Murucututu does not meet your production goals?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah, no, certainly, you know, that's part of our G&G team's workflow. They're always looking for new opportunities, be it new blocks or acquisition opportunities, those types of things. So, you know, we'll continue to look at those, but, you know, given our strategic infrastructure and the location of our Murucututu asset, and we've got all the pipelines and infrastructure in place, that's obviously a high priority for us.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

The last question I have here is. Do you think Alvopetro can be acquired, or what are the prospects of it getting acquired in the future, just like Petrominerales back in 2013?

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

Yeah, this is. Well, this has happened at least a couple times with this management team, with Pacalta back in Ecuador and Petrominerales in Colombia, so these things are always possible. We would, you know. I don't think that's personally a solid business plan. Our business plan is to focus on all the things that we talked about today, and focused on growing and diversifying our production base. Now, that being said, if someone comes along and makes a compelling offer to our shareholders, that's something we would put forward to the shareholders, and everyone listening on this call would have a say in that and a vote, and get to decide for themselves whether that's something they think makes sense to accept.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Okay, I do not have any further questions.

Corey Ruttan
President and CEO, Alvopetro

All right. Well, thank you. I'm sure there'll be some additional questions people have. Feel free to call us, and we thank you for your time, and we look forward to updating you, when we do this again in May. Thank you.

Alison Howard
CFO, Alvopetro

Thank you.

Adrian Audet
VP, Asset Management, Alvopetro

Thank you.

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