Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. (TYO:9104)
7,527.00
+176.00 (2.39%)
Oct 19, 2026, 3:30 PM JST
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Status update
Apr 6, 2026
Summary
Phase 2 shifts to earnings delivery, targeting JPY 420bn pre-tax profit and 5.5% ROA by 2030, with ROE above 10%. It pairs progressive dividends from JPY 205/share and a 40% total payout ratio with disciplined investment and active management of geopolitical volatility.
Everybody, for being here with us. We would like to get started. We will explain today the phase 2 of the MOL Group's management plan, BLUE ACTION 2035, which aims to transform the group into a global social infrastructure company. This is the briefing session. I will be the emcee for the day, Investor Relations Department Head, Shige. The main speaker would be the Chief Executive Officer, Tamura, from the 1st of April 2026, Chief Operating Officer, Umemura, and the Chief Financial Officer, Hamazaki. The first 40-45 minutes will be the presentation, and the remaining 40 minutes will be Q&A. We expect the ending time to be around 5:30 P.M. The Q&A will be with the names that show up on the Zoom.
If your current label is not your name, it would be great if you can change that to your name so that we will be able to identify you with your name. In April 2023, we launched our 13-year group management plan, BLUE ACTION 2035, and have expanded our field as a social infrastructure company originating from the ocean. We positioned the five years from 2026 to 2030 as the next stage, phase 2, and will continue to take on challenge toward realizing our group vision for 2035. This is the agenda. First, we will provide an overview including a review of phase 1 and the positioning of phase 2, followed by a detailed explanation of the phase 2 plan. The first part will be from the CEO, Tamura-san. The cash allocation, the shareholder return, and the three main strategy will be from the CFO.
The detailed execution plan of each business segment will be from Umemura-san. Tamura, CEO, please. To everybody who have joined this session, thank you very much for being here. My name is Jotaro Tamura, who has taken up this position of CEO from the 1st of April. Before going into the main position, I would like to make a brief remark on the current situation in the Middle East and the international situation, including around the Strait of Hormuz. It is becoming increasingly unstable, and the structure of supply chains, particularly for energy, is being recognized as a major issue. As a social infrastructure company rooted in the ocean, and for Japan, which depends heavily on imports for its resources, energy security is an extremely important issue. We strongly affirm that our group plays a vital role in the global energy supply.
It is precisely under these circumstances that we, as the social infrastructure company rooted in the ocean, are more mindful than ever of our responsibilities in our daily operations. We will continue to prioritize the safety of our seafarers, cargo, and vessels, and as one group, ensure the safe delivery of essential goods that support energy supply and everyday life. We are committed to working closely with the relevant stakeholders and governments to fully fulfill a role in contributing to the stability of society as a whole. BLUE ACTION 2035, which we will present today, is our group's management plan to sustainably enhance corporate value by achieving both economic and social value, even in an era of high uncertainty. With that, I will now move on to the explanation of the details. First of all, this slide.
Under BLUE ACTION 2035, we manage targets and performance for each phase using core KPIs, and continuously monitor progress towards achieving our goals for fiscal year 2035. In phase 1, we largely achieved both financial and non-financial core KPIs and have significantly advanced our transformation toward a management that balances growth and stability. In addition, during the 3 years of phase 1, supported by favorable market conditions, we achieved the profits targets set for the final year of the period for 3 consecutive years, starting from the first year. If you go to the next page, slide 5. In addition, in phase 1, we positioned asset rebalancing as a key theme. We classified our businesses into market-driven and stable earnings types based on their exposure to market conditions and advanced the transformation of our asset composition.
Taking into account the high market volatility inherent in the shipping industry, we aim to increase the proportion of stable earnings of business in order to achieve an optimal balance that delivers high returns in strong markets, while maintaining profitability for the group as a whole, even during downturns. In the initial Phase I plan, we had set an investment plan of JPY 1.2 trillion. However, by proactively capturing opportunities, we executed investments totaling JPY 2.0 trillion, including JPY 1.6 trillion in stable earnings of businesses. As a result, we advanced rebalancing to 37/63, nearly achieving the plan in a 40/60 ratio, while also bringing forward the expansion of total assets, thereby advancing both the transformation and growth simultaneously. Page 6. Meanwhile, as we executed the Phase I plan, there were changes in the external environment that differed from what we had anticipated 3 years ago.
As I said at the beginning, political risks, including the current instability around the Strait of Hormuz, as well as concerns over economic and energy security, are causing instability in the global environment and increasing uncertainty. In addition, delays in the energy transition and the rapid advancement of AI could also impact our growth strategy. If you go to the next page. Still on this page. Under these circumstances, in Phase I, we advanced investments aimed at securing stable future earnings through portfolio transformation, enhanced the sales capabilities of our overseas organizations, and created growth opportunities through regional strategies and accumulated achievements and expertise toward decarbonization through our environmental strategy. In the next stage, Phase II, we will accelerate the realization of returns on investments, adjust the pace of investments that have been executed ahead of schedule, and strengthen shareholder returns.
While uncertainty is increasing due to changes and instability in the external environment, we will view changes in the business environment, such as supply chain restructuring and energy transitions, as new opportunities, and continue to meet societal needs. In Phase II, we will shift the focus of management from transformation and expansion to delivering results. Accordingly, we have identified the 3 key priorities for Phase II, aimed at delivering results, as shown on the next slide. Slide 7. The first of the key priorities is enhancing our earning power, which you see on the left-hand side. We will strengthen the profitability of the entire group by leveraging and enhancing the strength of each individual business. Specifically, we will focus on realizing the full effects of our investments, creating synergies across businesses and regions, and undertaking a disciplined risk-taking in business exposed to market conditions.
The second is balanced capital allocation. We will pursue growth investments, financial soundness, and shareholder returns simultaneously, thereby improving capital efficiency. Specifically, we will work on balancing investments with the maintenance of a sound financial base, strengthening shareholder returns, and prompting asset recycling. The third is building a solid management foundation. Through addressing the sustainability issues and enhancing governance, we will strengthen the foundation for sustainable business growth. In particular, we will focus on maximizing the capabilities of our people and organization, and driving business transformation through digitalization and the adoption of AI. By setting these three priorities for Phase II, we will translate the achievements and strengthen what is accumulated in Phase I into tangible results in the next stage, aiming to further enhance corporate value. If we go to slide 8.
From here, I will explain the details of the Phase II plan, covering the overall framework of BLUE ACTION 2035, the profit plan, shareholder return policy and cash allocation, the three main strategies, and the main management foundation. Page 9. This is the overview. We position BLUE ACTION 2035 as a roadmap to create economic and social value in an integrated manner and to move toward realizing our group vision. In Phase II, we have incorporated sustainability issues together with governance into our management plan as part of our management foundation. Through the three main strategies and the strengthening of our management foundation, we aim to create both economic and social value and become a company chosen by all stakeholders. This is the updated overview of BLUE ACTION 2035. The overall structure remains unchanged from the original plan formulated three years ago.
The key update this time is the Phase II priorities shown near the center of the diagram, the three things. In Phase I, portfolio transformation centered on asset rebalancing was positioned as a key theme. However, as mentioned earlier, Phase II focuses on priorities aimed at delivering results. Under the Phase II priorities, we will advance initiatives related to our management foundation, comprising three main strategies, portfolio, regional, and environment strategies, as well as core sustainability issues and governance aiming to realize our vision for 2035. Slide 11. Again, core KPIs. The core KPIs that quantify our desired state for 2035 consist of financial and non-financial KPIs. As in Phase I, the financial KPIs are pre-tax profit, net gearing ratio, and ROE, while the non-financial KPIs cover environment, safety, and human capital, and DX.
For pre-tax profit based on investments made in Phase I and planned beyond Phase II, we have raised the 2030 target from JPY 340 billion to JPY 420 billion, and the 2035 target from JPY 400 billion to JPY 500 billion, aligning with our asset size and portfolio. From Phase II onwards, we will place greater emphasis on improving capital efficiency, setting our ROE target at over 10%. Among the non-financial KPIs, we have also reviewed the human capital indicators. Slide 12. This slide shows the breakdown and pathway for business toward achieving pre-tax and profit over JPY 420 billion and ROA of 5.5% in fiscal year 2030, the final year of Phase II.
From fiscal year 2026, we will establish a new chemical logistics business consisting of chemical tankers, methanol carriers, product tankers, and tank terminals, while reorganizing crude oil tankers, LPG, ammonia carriers, LNG, ethane carriers, and wind offshore into the energy business. This profit plan is based on the assumption that instability around the Strait of Hormuz will settle by the end of April. We will monitor developments and update it as necessary at the time of our earnings announcement. We will also provide details on pre-tax and profit before tax and for container shipping business in fiscal year 2026 at the end of April. Slide 13. To achieve the phase 2 priorities of enhancing earning power and balanced capital allocation, we will revise our business management approach.
Specifically, we will shift from the previous two categories, market-driven and stable earnings, to three categories: market-driven, mainly container shipping, and hybrid, primarily other shipping businesses, and stable earnings, including LNG carriers and non-shipping businesses. Further details will be explained in later slides. The purpose is not the classification itself, but rather to institutionalize risk-return control as a framework to improve overall ROA. Based on this new classification, we will work to expand the scale and improve profitability while maintaining current asset and profit ratios. We will work to expand the scale and improve profitability while maintaining current asset and profit ratios. In particular, we plan to increase profit before tax in the non-container shipping business from JPY 204 billion in 2025 to JPY 260 billion by 2030. Slide 14, please.
In phase 2, which is positioned as a phase of delivering results, cash generation capability is also an important indicator. We have defined base operating cash flow as an indicator of fundamental cash generation capability, and it presents its trajectory. We will realize the results of investments made in phase 1 and steadily expand base operating cash flow, particularly in hybrid and stable earnings businesses, transforming into a structure less dependent on market-driven businesses. Excluding one-off items such as special dividends from ONE, we plan to increase base operating cash flow by approximately JPY 110 billion from fiscal year 2026 to fiscal year 2030. Compared to 2025, JPY 120 billion more. Long contract equipped, the new vessels will come into operation is one reason, and the tank terminal business expansion is another, and overseas real estate business contribution and cruise business expansion.
These initiatives planned for phase 2 will materialize, and numbers are those reasons. From page 15, the CFO will explain the details. This is Hamazaki, the CFO, and thank you for being here with us. Regarding the shareholder returns in phase 2, we will introduce a progressive dividend starting at JPY 205 per share and implement flexible share buybacks targeting a total payout ratio of 40%. 2026, we actually have this assumption of the earnings being less than in 2025, but JPY 200 is how we would like to get started with phase 2. Hence, we have set the progressive dividend starting at JPY 205. This was JPY 5. Dividends will be determined based on a level that can be stably sustained in line with the accumulation of stable earnings of businesses.
Targeting a total payout ratio of 40%, we will flexibly conduct the share buybacks for the difference between dividends and total returns, thereby returning upside from market-driven and hybrid businesses to shareholders. Share buyback is not just the means to return to the shareholders. Progressive dividends will enhance the dividend visibility, while share buybacks will improve capital efficiency. We will be able to achieve it both with confidence as how we are seeing it right now. This shows the cash allocation assumed for phase 2. Although fluctuations may occur year by year, under a policy that emphasizes financial soundness, we will accumulate core operating cash flow and then further promote asset replacement, shifting away from phase 1's investment-first approach and not relying on new external funding. At the same time, when attractive investment opportunities arise, we will make growth investments using external funding selectively.
700 billion JPY was the annual average of investment and follow-on investment and shipment. 830 billion JPY is here, and 300 billion JPY is the annual increase in phase 2. Phase 1 follow-on investment will be cashed out mainly in 2026 and 2027, and as these vessels come in the business, the base cash flow will increase. By strongly focusing on improving ROA and advancing business and asset replacement, we will ensure the sustainability of both growth investments and shareholder returns. From here, I will explain the three main strategies in more detail. We have reorganized the fundamental approach to our portfolio strategy. These are strengthening the competitive advantage to balancing earnings stability with market upside, and three, creating horizontal and vertical expansion and synergies centered on strong businesses.
To achieve this, in phase 2, we will further strengthen investment selection, enhance business monitoring, and promote business and asset recycling. This slide explains the three business categories. Market-driven businesses generate high profits in favorable markets, but also experience significant volatility. Stable earnings businesses expand steadily with reduced volatility through long-term contracts and fixed income. Hybrid businesses sit in between the two, possessing some resilience through high entry barriers and medium to long-term contracts, while strategically managing market exposure to capture upside during favorable conditions. While phase 1 focused on strengthening stable earnings of businesses and rebalancing the portfolio, phase 2 will additionally enhance strategic risk-taking and upside capture in hybrid businesses. By combining these, we achieve diversification across different market cycles, preventing a downside risk while generating significant profits during favorable conditions. Slide 19.
We will also pursue horizontal and vertical expansion and synergy creation centered on our stronger businesses, aiming to build a unique portfolio unmatched by competitors. In particular, the trust and the capabilities we have built in maritime transport are key, and a close collaboration between our regional organizations and headquarters is essential for execution. Here, we present a diagram centered on the LNG value chain and chemical logistics as a concrete example. Leveraging the strength of each business in regionally rooted networks and the group-wide connections we have built, we aim to participate in the value chains for decarbonized energy, a new growth area. Next is slide 20. The second of the three main strategies is regional strategy. In our regional strategy, which predates BLUE ACTION 2035, we aim to capture regional growth worldwide as our own growth.
In phase 2, based on our track record, expertise, and regional characteristics, we will focus on key businesses, areas where our strength can be leveraged. Specifically, in Europe and North America, we will pursue business development in decarbonized energy and vertical expansion from maritime transport into upstream and downstream areas, supported by advanced environmental technologies, numerous partners, and active innovation. In regions such as Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where population growth and high economic growth are expected, we will expand our shipping operations and invest in infrastructure-driven opportunities. Personnel from overseas organizations, including group companies strengthened in phase 1, will take the lead in advancing regional strategies in close coordination with the headquarters. Slide 21. In particular, we regard the Indian Ocean region as our top priority area, given its strong medium to long-term growth potential.
While we will not go into specific project details today, we have already built a pipeline of projects across various business areas in the Indian Ocean region, spanning from East Africa to South Asia and Southeast Asia. We will continue developing these businesses, aiming for further expansion and early profit contributions from phase 2 onward. Slide 22. The final of the three main strategies is environmental strategy. We view decarbonization not merely as regulatory compliance, but as an opportunity for service differentiation and growth. By adapting low and zero carbon fuels and improving fuel efficiency, we will differentiate our transport services and establish a competitive advantage. At the same time, we will leverage our broad business platform to capture decarbonization as a new business opportunity. These three, portfolio strategy, regional strategy, and environmental strategy, constitute the core strategies set forth in the BLUE ACTION 2035. Slide 23 next.
Back to Tamura-san. Next, I will explain the management foundation, which like the three main strategies, is positioned at the core of BLUE ACTION 2035. We have reorganized our sustainability issues to focus on those that contribute more significantly to value creation, identifying four key areas: environment, safety, human capital, and digital transformation, DX, as our material sustainability issues. Within these four themes, we have also identified the specific priority areas to focus on. We have established four theme-specific visions linked to these sustainability issues, within which we manage KPIs and actions. Slide 24. From here, I will outline the theme-specific visions associated with the four sustainability issues. The first is environment. As explained in the environmental strategy slide, we will continue our current initiatives categorized into reducing our own GHG emissions, greenhouse gas, and contributing to society's emission reductions, steadily progressing towards net zero by 2050.
Through the introduction of alternative fuels and improvements in fuel efficiency, we will significantly reduce our own GHG emissions and expand low and zero carbon businesses, achieving both our group growth and societal decarbonization. Slide 25. Next is safety. Safety is an absolute prerequisite for business continuity and the highest priority for our group. Through safe operations, we will continue to protect people, assets, and the environment, contributing value to society and our stakeholders. To achieve this, we will strengthen our safety foundation, including awareness and organizational systems, and then further promote initiatives such as empowering our people, leveraging technology, and enhancing risk management. Slide 26. The third is human capital. We will leverage the diverse talent across our group, including new members from phase 1 and then global personnel, to maximize the capabilities of our people and organization in alignment with our business strategies.
Under the human capital vision linked to this sustainability issue, we focus on the three key themes: diversity, co-creation, and meaningful work, and we will continue initiatives aligned with these areas. Slide 27. The digital transformation vision linked to the fourth sustainability issue aims to enhance profitability while contributing to both solving societal challenges and achieving corporate growth. Specifically, we will advance initiatives in three key areas: AI-driven transformation, maritime digitalization, and the global co-creation infrastructure, maximizing the use of AI not only for operational efficiency, but also in management and business operations. We will also make onboard operations visible and connected, enhancing operational efficiency and stability, thereby strengthening our competitive advantage. In addition, we will develop information infrastructure that enables unified data and systems globally, facilitating faster decision-making across regions and businesses. Slide 28, please. Finally, governance, which together with sustainability forms our management foundation.
As we expanded our business scale into Phase 1, we have developed governance structures suited to our group. We will further evolve our board of directors into a strategy-focused and supervisory body to strengthen corporate governance. In addition to continuing Phase 1 initiatives, we will strengthen our execution structure to drive growth even amid increasing external uncertainty. The following are supplemental materials. As time is limited today, I will focus on key points, particularly the winning strategies of selected businesses, and Umedaki-san will explain this. Right. Chief Operating Officer. Oh, sorry. Umemura. Apologies for the name mistake. Umemura. So first is the dry bulk business. Towards 2030, we aim to further strengthen our sales capabilities, both domestically and internationally, enhance service quality, and improve both market resilience and upside capture capability.
Within the dry bulk segment, we will introduce our strategy and a winning approach for the small and medium-sized bulker businesses. In this segment, we will capture new transport demand arising from population growth and energy transition, seizing the global growth opportunities. To achieve this, we have expanded our overseas presence by combining our strong presence in Asia with a global network of G2 Ocean, jointly operated with the Gearbulk. By integrating capabilities to handle over 160 types of cargo across MOL dry bulk and Gearbulk, we differentiate through high value-added maritime transport while leveraging cost competitiveness through integrated group operations. This is our group's winning strategy for the small and medium-sized bulker business. Slide 31. Next is the energy business.
Toward 2030, we aim to capture the energy transition and achieve sustainable growth by enhancing the profitability of existing businesses and expanding low and zero carbon businesses. Within this segment, we will introduce our strategy and winning approach for the LNG value chain, which we are strong. In the LNG value chain, we are growing our business by leveraging strong market growth, our leading global market share, industry presence, and a competitive fleet structure. We are expanding ethane and LPG fleets through horizontal deployment of our global network and joint venture models, building stable earnings via FSRU projects through vertical integration and entering new floating facilities such as LNG power vessels and FLNG. We will enhance integrated marketing and engineering initiatives like Wind Challenger, strengthen cost competitiveness, and further expand vertically within the LNG value chain. Through these efforts, we will establish a winning position across the entire value chain.
Slide 32, please. Next is the chemical logistics business, which is newly set. Toward 2030, we aim to enhance our group's competitiveness by organically integrating maritime transport and onshore storage, and to become a leading company in chemical logistics. Within this segment, we will introduce our strategy and winning approach for the tank terminal business. In the tank terminal business, collaboration between MOL Chemical Tankers and LBC, which joined the group in phase 1, is key. In addition to improving efficiency through joint sales and operations, we will collaborate with upstream development and maritime transport to pursue business development in next generation energy and decarbonization related storage. In addition to the existing chemical business built by MOL Chemical Tankers and LBC, we will capture opportunities from the energy transition by expanding into high growth Asian markets, broadening handled products, and improving profitability through operational process enhancements.
This is our winning strategy for the tank terminal business. Slide 33. Next is the product transport business. Toward 2030, we aim to grow our business globally by meeting logistics demand in growth regions centered on our competitive container and car carrier businesses. With this segment, we will introduce our strategy and a winning approach for the car carrier business. In this business, we combine stable longer-term demand for maritime transport with our strength, one of the world's largest fleets, a service network spanning five regions and 29 locations, and then differentiated end-to-end solutions including eco-friendly fleets and finished vehicle logistics to build a hybrid earnings model. We will provide stable transport based on long-term contracts with key customers, clearly differentiate through low carbon transport, and deepen customer solutions through integrated services. This is our group's winning strategy for the car carrier business. Slide 34. Finally, the well-being life business.
Toward 2030, real estate aims to improve capital efficiency, ferries aim to capture modal shift opportunities, and cruises aim to enhance brand value, all contributing to increasing group corporate value. Today, we will introduce our strategy and a winning approach for the real estate business. Our real estate business is led by Daibiru, focusing primarily on office buildings both domestically and internationally. In phase 1, we actively invested not only in domestic but also overseas projects, aiming to diversify and improve profitability. In phase 2, we will promote greater liquidity in real estate through initiatives such as entering the asset management business and implement measures to further improve capital efficiency and ROA. As part of our capital efficiency enhancement measures, including asset replacement and the generation of capital gains, we plan asset recycling totaling approximately 230 billion JPY over five years.
We believe that by maintaining a real estate business that operates under a market cycle different from shipping, the MOL group can strengthen overall management stability and more proactively capture business opportunities in shipping. In addition to transforming the business model of the real estate business itself and enhancing the property value, we will strengthen integrated group-wide sales activities, define a clear winning strategy for our real estate business as the MOL group, and execute it. Right. The very last part, again, from myself, Tamura. Slide 35. This is a supplementary slide showing the relationship between the phase 2 actions focused on strengthening earnings power and reducing capital costs and corporate value enhancement. We're strongly mindful that all initiatives in phase 2 will create both economic and social value and lead to enhanced corporate value.
We will continue our efforts towards realizing our group vision for fiscal year 2035. I will explain our value as a social infrastructure company, finally. As seen in the changing external environment, global stability is being affected by factors such as the international situation, and everyday life, not just in Japan, but around the world, is heavily affected. As a social infrastructure company, our group is committed to the mission of realizing a sustainable ocean and global environment, enhancing wellbeing, and providing infrastructure that supports people's lives and industries. In any era, our group will continue to respond flexibly to changes in the external environment and fulfill our mission of providing infrastructure that supports people's lives and industries.
Our corporate philosophy from the BLUE ACTION 2035, we sustain people's everyday lives and open the way to a prosperous future, embody our commitment and determination to this mission. Through contributing to society via our business activities, we will build greater trust with our stakeholders and strive to remain a company that is chosen now and into the future. This concludes the explanation of the MOL Group's Management Plan BLUE ACTION 2035 at phase 2. Thank you very much for listening and for your attention. Thank you very much. We would like to move on to the Q&A session for the remaining time. If you do have a question, please raise your hand by using the hand raise icon, and we will read out your name when it is your turn. Please unmute yourself then and state your name and affiliation at the very beginning, please.
Because we wish to take as many questions as possible from as many people as possible, please limit your number of questions to the maximum 2. Thank you. We would like to now go to Hirogane-san. Can you hear me okay? Yes, we can. This is Hirogane from Nomura Securities. There are 2 questions. Number 1, the international situation. With this circumstance, some business environments can be hoped to go back to how it was, and maybe you would see something not going back forever. How are you interpreting, as CEO, of this environment, and how do you think that you can leverage the strength of the company? Umemura will be the suitable person to respond to that because this is a very critical challenge. I would like to ask that as the first question.
Second, regarding this business plan, you are providing the numerical KPIs, including the cash flow, and then we will be monitoring if you are going to be on track to these numbers. But any approach so that you will keep having these numbers as relevant. How are you going to revise? How are you going to be agile in revising the plan? How do you intend to leverage this plan? The first item, we can have Umemura answering the question, how the international situation is affecting our business and then how can we leverage the strength in that circumstance. Second is regarding the numerical KPIs that have been announced. Numerical targets, actually, not KPIs. As we progress alongside the plan, you would assume that some revisions will become necessary. What is our approach to making revisions and then updates to these numerical targets?
So Umemura-san, please, for the first question. My apologies, I wasn't unmuting. The business environment in the Middle East, the situation, and the impact to our business performances, I guess we will talk about it in more details at the end of April when we do this financial briefing. There are 2 businesses. The maritime, so it's the contracted vessels business. So we have customers using our vessels. The second type is the fare incurring, so we provide the service of delivering goods. For the first part, the contracted vessels, it's a long-term contract that comprise the business. So this Middle East situation is not going to affect this long-term contract. So this first part is not going to be affected majorly by this situation.
This fare incurring, this delivery service business, as we speak, been discussed internally how we should estimate the impact of the situation be for this business. For goods delivery, the fuel prices are carried by our end, and there are various costs which will increase the something that we will bear. Then how the actual movement of the goods be possible or be done, and how the maritime situation will be, is something that we just need to keep on monitoring the changes and give some forecast as we discuss intensively. We do have 900 vessels around the world, and global responses are very much possible with that network. We would like to make sure that we continue to commit to the needs of our clients and customers. Okay, next, the second question, Tamura-san, please. Thank you very much for your questions.
I guess my answer is going to be connected to the first question as well. This plan for the next 5 years, the assumed business environment, out of them, the biggest impact will be this geopolitical situation. How do I interpret that impact to the maritime businesses? Well, it depends on the type of the vessels, how much all the significance of the scale of the impact. All in all, the volatility will be higher. So it will be drastic ups and downs, is what we expect, regardless of the type of the vessels or type of the vessel businesses. Sometimes, that will act as a tailwind for our maritime business. Passing on the price increase of the fuels and other increasing cost will be positive for us.
Our strength, the diversified portfolio, which we consider to be our strength, will become even more meaningful. Even in the maritime business, we are diverse in terms of the type of the vessels and our businesses. When the volatility heightens, actually opportunities for us heighten as well. We see there's a good potential of increased opportunities in the next 5 years. So we're going to pursue all the upsides and the opportunities. At the same time, because of this volatility, it will be negative to the stability of our business. So that will be increased challenge. We are fortunate to have this very stable business being combined with more volatile businesses. So it's good that we can take advantage of the opportunities which arises with this volatile situations, and we are also helped by these stable businesses being a part of our business portfolio.
So the look of our portfolio, I believe, can be acting as even better than ever, a strength. We will fine tune our business navigation. It requires careful decision making, but we will find the growth opportunities, which regions, which type of vessel businesses, thinking that we need to sharpen our edges to do excellent work there. All right. Thank you very much for your answers. Additional questions. You said that the energy businesses, you will diversify the sourcings or having a more inventory, and that you have acquired the companies for tanks, and you do have this chemical value chain, which is quite a scale, and I guess these will help your business in this climate. Yes. Short-termly, the volume of goods that we deliver can go ups and downs. But once this international situation will be settled, this diversification can help.
Then during the pandemic, it was more of a manufacturing, but the energy resources procurement was more inventory. There will be a rebound of the situation, the more inventories will be stored everywhere, and then that would impact our business in a favorable way. Is what we think. Okay, thank you very much. That was Hirogane-san. Let's go to Tsuchiya-san from the Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Lab. Okay. I have 2 questions. It's a very detailed question, but if you go to page 12, you have this domain by domain, profits before tax. I would like to ask, you know, on each of them, but I guess, container part, the market environment driven. I think, you do have this basic increase of profit trend, and I guess that it include the extraordinary profit as well.
Is that more even bigger, extraordinary or profit that you are assuming for the phase 2 than phase 1? So that's one. Regarding the market exposure is the second question. Dry bulk, I heard what you just said, that you will be able to benefit from all these situations. I think you actually were clever in assessing your foundations, but how is this model be different from your business model in the past? So can you elaborate on this, you know, the winning the upside but avoid the downside, and also I would love to hear a little more about this, the market exposure of the energy. Okay, thank you very much. The first, so page 12, the container part. Yes, we see this increase in profit before tax.
Is this including the selling of the vessels, and then how are you assuming the market to be? So, I would like to have Tamura be explaining this. The second is regarding the market exposure, the dry bulk. You heard the strategy in a positive way. Then how is the business model be different from that of in the past and how about this market exposure of the energy as well? Okay, thank you very much for your question. First, regarding the container business forecast or assumptions for the market environment. How are you projecting? Was the question and these container business numbers on slide 12. These are based on our own unique assumptions and a breakdown. This is our unique business. ONE terminal business, which we haven't given to ONE, and also the leased vessels that we are giving to ONE.
Also, the ONE's affiliated net profit also. These are this company's own forecast. I know that this is a very tricky part, but basically towards 2030, the market environment. Our assumption is that 2025/2026 we assumed as the bottom of the cycle, so that 2026 onwards will be recovering. BLUE ACTION phase 2 end at 2030 is the one benchmark. ROE target has this big component of ONE's contribution. The container business actual market environment is volatile and does fluctuate even within a year, and geopolitical situation is exacerbating it. There's a good chance the geopolitical environment continues to shake it. Market environment does change constantly, and we think that from 2025/2026, it's almost near the bottom, and then towards 2030, will be recovering.
The market makeup-wise, the demand and supply balance, 2028 to 2029, the new vessels launches are quite heavy in 2028 and 2029, and that's very much recognized. What would be the profit at around 2029 might be your interest. These two, running to fiscal year 2030, the average will be ups and downs, and 2029 will be averaged out. Those are scrapping of the industry which is behind the schedule, and recent drastic ups and downs are making it difficult for us to logically explain it with just the regular ups and demand in the supply situations. Bottlenecks can be of the terminals or railways or transportation on land. Not just the simple demand and supply balance.
We don't think that the bottom is going to be lower, but there will be always ups and downs, but it will be more or less stable. I would like to continue discuss with the ONE management team on how the ONE will invest. That will be the answer for the first question. Thank you very much, Kamina-san. Projection of the profit before tax, the selling of vessels are not included. Dry bulk exposure, how are we going to capture the exposure and how are we going to win there, was the question. Even in the past, we actually got this exposure, and there were ups and downs. This time, how carefully and thoroughly we can do this exposure management is going to be the determinant in how much we can win.
It's going to be very thorough and the detailed management we will be doing. In the past, we might have had exposure, but how we were interpreting the exposure or the management of it was not perfectly done. As long as we try to win the upside, we need to be ready to have this downside risk. We do have this good accumulated profit, which will allow us to tolerate these downturn downside risks. With that being the foundation, we're going to have a dedicated team which will be managing the exposure in a detailed manner, and understanding the markets even further, it's going to be really critical. For that, actually, in the last few years, we created this global sales team.
And Singapore actually has one of the sales team. And then we are getting a much bigger volume of information because of the base of these sales. And then tanker business too, we would like to actually take the exposure. But specifically regarding the tanker, we are going to prioritize the stable businesses more than the risky ones. But at times, we would like to be ready to take upside of the exposure. So we already have that, this organizational foundation. I think this too will be overseas mainly, but we would like to take this side of the exposures there. Right. Thank you very much for your explanation. Understood. Thank you very much, Tsuji-san. Himeno-san, please. Next. Thank you. JP Morgan, Himeno. This is Himeno from JP Morgan. One is the shareholder returns policy. Payout ratio 40%.
Dividend percentage was 40%, but now it is a total payout ratio of 40%. You said that the ROE, the priority is one of the reasons, but just why 40%? Why not 45% or 50%? Has such a discussion happened internally? And that this percentage, 40%. ONE will give 30% to the three parent companies, and then are you giving out this request to increase that 30%? Second is the balance sheet control. The ex-CEO, Hashimoto-san, was communicating using this term "balance sheet control," and did you incorporate any of the balance sheet control elements in this time, the mid-term business plan, cash flow plan, the fundraising, the selling of the assets, and then you actually had this JPY 1 trillion allocation. So I was thinking maybe that would be the balance sheet control element.
But if you do have more details that you can share, that would be appreciated. Okay. Thank you, Himeno-san. There are two questions. There were. One is the shareholder returns. Right. So 40% of the total payout ratio. We did explain that that is because of this ROE focus, but why the percentage is 40%, not other percentages. ONE, the payout ratio is at 30%. So for us, has there been any discussion of matching the 30% to the 40%? Next is the balance sheet control. Have we incorporated any of the balance sheet control in this mid-term business plan? ONE part. Yes. Okay. First point, second point will be explained by Hamazaki. Okay. Let me respond, and then Hamazaki will add anything that I miss. First, the philosophy around the shareholder returns. 2021 onwards, we studied how things have been since 2021.
I think our capabilities have been stronger, and then 25%, 30% had been the history. So it was a gradual increase. So how much can we realistically try to achieve in the next five years? So we discussed extensively internally and concluded with this percentage, 40%. Of course, 35%, 40, 45, so I know that there are various percentages that can be set as. But this is as a result of a comprehensive discussion, looking at how we are right now, how we should be after five years in terms of our capabilities. So we have considered various scenarios, and I think this total payout ratio that we aim to share to the outside world should be 40% was the conclusion. Regarding the ONE, currently we are discussing, so the shareholders and ONE are discussing as we speak.
40% is what we are requesting, and that they are constructively considering. I think we are heading towards that, the 40%. Kind of a world, but still under discussion. The second, page 13. If you see the left bottom, there is this asset breakdown and how the total is trending towards how we project it to trend towards 2030. 7.7 trillion JPY is the level. 2026 to 2030, 6.7 trillion JPY becoming a 7.7, so it is incremental of 1 trillion JPY. If we see the growth of the last 3 years, this 5 years of growth is much more gradual. Phase 2's main theme is continuing of growth investment. Also the financial stability, and then the enhancement of the shareholder returns. We knew that we needed to balance these 3 things.
For us to achieve all of these 3 in a balanced way, what should be the asset volume that we should set as the target for 2030? Again, for this too, we discussed extensively and set this as the target. This 7.7 trillion JPY, the scale of the assets is one of the things that we thought to be quite critical. Okay. A little additional from me. Cash allocation page, if you can go to the cash allocation, slide 16. How are we going to create the balance sheet in the next 5 years? I think that the cash allocation is a very critical part. This is the 5 years total. One thing to be careful is this dark green part, the phase 1 decision made, follow-on investment is the dark green part.
As I said earlier, this is going to be cash out happening mainly in 2026 and 2027. Phase 2 growth investment is going to happen as well, and that will be to improve our portfolio. That will be included in the position, and as Tamura said, the shareholder returns is to be enhanced. These all are included in here, and CEO talked on slide 13 about the asset as well. Can you actually show the slide 13, how the asset total will trend? This is broken down by portfolio. This is the left-hand side of the balance sheet, but the right-hand side of the balance sheet is also important in the financial. Let us go to slide 11, the financial KPIs. Net gearing ratio.
Right now, at the end of 2025, with a large M&A, that was the phase 2 investment coming ahead of the schedule. We leveraged the debt, and we need to bring back the financial discipline. That is a theme, and so that is what we intend to do in a gradual manner. At the end of 2025, what was the right financial makeup is one discussion point, but now with the various assets, the equity ratio is around 40%, but we think that this needs to be heightened. Net gearing ratio is to be improved as well. Those were the thinking that went behind these numbers. Okay, thank you very much for the industry. Okay, let us go to another question from Miyazaki-san. Thank you very much. This is Miyazaki from Goldman Sachs. Two questions from myself. One will be the profit before tax.
The 2030, why the target has been heightened, and why profit before taxes is KPI? Conventionally, in your financial disclosure, thinking of the profit that you are sharing was a recurring profit, even for the segment. Why now all the profit targets are profit before tax? The second is the recycling of the owned asset. What would be the criteria you will be applying in deciding which one to sell when real estate, for instance, what type of a real estate within the real estate can be the subject for vessels? I guess partly it depend on where you find yourself in the cycle, but what would be the maybe profits before the tax will be the threshold for you to start considering the sale. All right. Thank you very much, Miyazaki-san.
First question from Miyazaki-san was about this, profits before tax for 2030 being listed, why? Second, why the profits before taxes be our KPI now? The second was about asset recycle, the real estate recycling decision criteria. Both will be answered by Tamura first, and any additional will come from Suito later. All right. Thank you very much for your questions. First, why profits before tax has become our KPI. If you go to the original BLUE ACTION, it was always the profits before tax. That's when we decided to use profits before tax. ROA is one KPI. I think the vessel sales, the profit, which is in this now special extraordinary income should be included was the thinking we had and why it was set with the profits before tax rather than recurring profit.
The 2030 snapshot, the target for 2030, we hiked. Straightforwardly, because the investment of the phase 1 became more than what was originally anticipated. The orders placed during the phase 1 of the vessels, which is the major part of the investment that we did, and there is now inflation happening since then. The vessel prices are hiking. Those that we placed an order back in 2021, 2022, 2023, are now in this very competitive pricing. The profit coming from these will continue to accumulate in a very stable manner. With that in mind, we thought that that profit before tax for 2030 can be lifted. The second question, the asset recycling decision criteria. It depends on the type of vessels or the type of real estate, so I can't really talk about the specific ones.
If you see overall, we will always have a priority list that will continuously be set throughout the 5 years. How do we set a priority? First, we're going to identify where we can leverage our strengths and where are the areas or the subjects that we are not necessarily having strength leverageable. Anything to add, Suito? Let me add some more. If we go to slide 17, this is the phase 2 very characteristic mentioned. We're going to improve our portfolio. We're going to be improving the ROE. The cycle of portfolio improvement is a very key component of the phase 2 and the right-hand side of the business asset recycling. We review, we will have a good cadence of reviewing, and we might find one project or vessel, should we continue? Should we sell?
We will keep coming back to that discussion. The profits before tax, the numbers that we look at in the discussion is important. We are going to be achieving ROE with the capital gain being in that. That is why the numerator is the profit before tax. It is showing our commitment to achieve the ROE even with this no capital gain being in the formula or calculation. Thank you very much, Miyazaki. Next is Osaka, please. This is Osaka from Morgan Stanley. Thank you very much for this opportunity with the press limited time. Just one question. Slide 16, cash allocation, the CapEx. So JPY 1.5 trillion, which excludes phase one. Can you elaborate a little bit on how much of that has already been a decision made, and how much of this would be maintenance investment?
On the right-hand side, the energy usage here as the biggest, the chunk. It would be great if we can give a granular explanation on this. Thank you very much, Osaka. Cash allocation on the right-hand side of phase two, decision making breakdown is what you see, and then what is already been set in stone or what are visible on the horizon. Tamura will explain first. Thank you very much for your question. If you see this right-hand side, this is by business unit. Phase one, phase two. Sorry, apologies. The ones which we already made a decision in the phase one, and those which we will be making decisions in the phase two are next on the right-hand side. Sorry, on the right-hand side. How does this look, if we exclude the phase one? This balance is, in a way, a benchmark.
The biggest part continues to be the energy and chemical logistics. So yellow and the green parts. At this moment, for these five business units, we are thinking that the breakdown of the total, more or less, equally to the five. While the energy and chemical logistics being the biggest. Business environment volatility is going to be more dramatic, or we assume. We would like to closely monitor how the environment is changing or how we project them to become, and we fine-tune the balance among these five, is what is very critical, is what I am thinking right now. Thank you very much. Any amount that is already been set in stone, decisions already made. We do not have anything set in the stone. Fiscal year 2026 is the beginning of the decision making is being done for the phase two.
The investment pipeline, yes, we do have, and these numbers are coming. JPY 2.3 trillion is with the phase one and the pipeline of the phase two, but none of these pipelines are set in stone. The decisions already been made. You can do this as subtraction, but then that would be how much we intended to spend, but no decisions are made on any of the projects included in that pipeline. Thank you very much, Osaka. I think that we can take only one more question. That will be from Tabata. Can you hear this okay? I thank you very much for this opportunity. This is Tabata of Elliott. Two questions from myself. One, PBR. In your IR report, PBR target is between the 1.2-1.5.
In this phase 2 of a mid-term business plan, my question is, did you have that as an assumption? This phase 2, running up to 2030, what is the level of evaluation you are aiming to achieve? Towards the end of this presentation, you talked about this, enhance the corporate value, and you are mentioning a PBR. I thought you should have some target regarding the PBR as well. Second is, regarding a cash allocation. Cash in page has this JPY 1.07 trillion. There is this mentioning is that in the external assets, the leverage is going to be in a limited way. How much will come from external and how much will come from the switching of the assets? Real estate, switching of the asset is JPY 230 billion. JPY 1.07 trillion minus JPY 230 billion, so that's JPY 840 billion.
Is that coming from the selling of vessels? Is my thinking correct? First question. Yes, we actually have this mid to long-term goal of a PBR in the integrated report and it to be 1.2 to 1.5. Your question was, did we have that as an assumption, and what is the evaluation that we are trying to achieve? The second was regarding the cash allocation. If we go to page 16, left-hand side, cash in. Other than the operating, working cash flow, there is this external component as well as the real estate. In the remaining JPY 840 billion, that mainly coming from the sales of the vessels. Thank you very much for your question. Phase 2 goes up to 2030, and we have laid out a plan.
If you look at Phase 1, the results of these investments will be coming gradually from 2026 to 2030, and those will contribute to the targets. Investment, particularly of the vessel, the lead time is quite long, two to three years from the placement of the order. There's always time lag in terms of when it's going to start contributing. I don't think these numbers were expressed until now. Now it's there. With this plan that we've laid out today, the time lag is now filled. I think the evaluation will be more accurately reflecting what's out there. The PBR 1.2 to 1.5 laid out in an IR report. That's a mid to long-term goal. I think that by achieving this, what we laid out in this presentation is going to help bring in the PBR to 1.2 to 1.5.
We would like to really focus on achieving what we laid out in this Phase 2 plan. That's my answer for the first question. The second question will be answered by Hamaza. If you show the cash allocation page. This is the cash allocation for the next five years. In the cash-in part, you see this JPY 1.07 billion, and that there's a gradation, the two colors, and then how that's done. Asset switching will be the main part, the lighter blue, and the darker is cash in, cash out. There's this circular icon in between. Currently, what's already set in stone are the darkest greens, are Phase 1 investments. The lighter green investment, which is our Phase 2, will gradually be a decision made, and the work cash will keep coming in while doing so.
Asset replacement, sometimes it is possible, but it might not be coming any time. Then, we will actually have this. Then we will actually leverage this external financing. We do have this real estate component and the vessel sales. The breakdown between the two is not here. We need to see the progress of investment, and we will just proceed with asset replacement, seeing how the progress goes. Thank you very much for the question. I guess now that we have already exceeded the schedules and the time, we need to conclude now. With the limited time, there might have been questions that we could not respond to. Please contact our IR team and we will make sure that we respond to any questions that you might have. Thank you very much once again for participating.