AMAG Austria Metall AG (VIE:AMAG)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2024

Apr 24, 2024

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the AMAG Austria Metall AG Q1 results 2024. My name is Frances, the Chorus Call call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode and the conference will be recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, you may register at any time pressing star and one. For operator assistance , please press star and zero. The forecast, budgets, and forward-looking assessments and statements contained in this presentation were compiled on the basis of all information available to AMAG as of April 12, 2024. In the event that the assumptions underlying this forecast prove to be incorrect, targets are missed, or risk materialized, actual results may depart from those currently anticipated.

We are not obligated to revise those forecasts in the light of new information or future events. The presentation was prepared and the data contained in it verified with the greatest possible care. Nevertheless, misprints as well as rounding and transmission errors cannot be entirely ruled out. In particular, AMAG and its representatives do not assume any responsibility for the completeness and correctness of information included in this presentation. This presentation is also available in German. In case of doubt, the German language version text prevails. This presentation does not comprise either recommendation or solicitation to either purchase or sell security of AMAG. At this time, it is my pleasure to turn the conference over to Christoph Gabriel, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Christoph Gabriel
Head of Investor Relations, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our conference call for the first quarter of 2024 of AMAG. Today, Helmut Kaufmann, CEO of AMAG, and Claudia Trampitsch, CFO, will present the development and results of the first three months of this year. As usual, the presentation as well as the press release have been published this morning on our homepage under Investor Relations. After the presentation, you have the opportunity to ask questions during the Q&A session. Helmut, please start the presentation. Thank you.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Also from my side. Let me start this presentation with slide number 3, the highlights. Our quarterly performance was influenced mostly by lower aluminum prices and lower shipment volumes, which come from weaker order intake in the fourth quarter of last year. Due to our lead time, this still influences the first quarter of 2024. The revenue summed up to EUR 335.8 million and is therefore below last year's level, which was in the range of EUR 404 million. EBITDA came out with EUR 42.4 million, which I think is worth mentioning is above Q4 of 2023. So it's an improvement compared to the last quarter. But in comparison with the year before, first quarter 2023, it's of course quite a bit lower. This summed up to EUR 60.8 million.

Net income after tax was EUR 13.3 million compared to EUR 26.8 million last year. Cash flow from operating activities is at about the same level as last year’s in EUR 35.6 million. More details about these financial results will be given by my colleague, Claudia Trampitsch, very soon. Let us have a brief outlook for 2024 results. Like, when we consider similar conditions, no real significant drawback anymore in the economic situation, then we expect the full-year EBITDA in the range of EUR 150-180 million. Let us look at the market and shipments. And the current situation is pretty well reflected in the Purchasing Managers' Index that is shown on slide number five. And unfortunately, you can see that the Eurozone is red. And our main market or one very important market, Germany, is dark red.

But there are some other areas, especially outside Europe, the United States, but also in Asia, slight improvements are shown. And there already some green color is visible. And while the general world economy is improving, the forecast for GDP in Germany and Austria is still pretty weak, actually reduced. And at the moment, the experts see only 0.2% growth for 2024. When we look at the slide number six, the shipments in tons for all of our products in Q1 2024 was at the level of 104,000 tons, 5.6% below last year's result. And a look at the segments in more detail shows that metal plus 400 tons is pretty much unchanged. This is a very stable production and stable consumption. So our Alouette smelter in Canada functions well.

AMAG Casting, this is where we produce the recycling foundry alloys, is slightly below previous year's level. But the general situation in this area is still stable and positive. AMAG Rolling, however, is 4,700 tons below last year's level. As already mentioned, this reflects mostly the situation of the Q4 in 2023. When we look at a little bit more detail to the different product areas, then we can say that industrial applications as well as the sports sector still not back to where they were before. Also, packaging industry is below last year's shipments. However, and this is positive for AMAG, the transportation industry is stable and still looks good. And as you know, aircraft business is, like, still on the recovery path after COVID. This is reflected in the percentage of the total tonnage shown on page number 7 or slide number 7.

Here you can see that, for example, the aircraft business increased by 2% to 15%. Automotive stable at about 20%. And other transport 5%. So this means, roughly speaking, 40% go into the transportation industry. Partly, of course, also heat exchanger business. But this goes also in several other applications. So it's a little bit difficult to say how many percent of these go into transportation. Sports and architecture sum up to 6%. But as you can see, this is below last year's volume. And also, packaging is below. Let us have a look at slide number 8, looking at our current order backlog. And this is a positive signal because we are back to the intended levels. This means somewhere in the range of 60,000 tons is kind of a target corridor.

As you can see here, over the last couple of quarters, starting from Q3, Q4, Q1, the Q1 this year, the order backlog improved. As we can observe at the moment, the order development for industrial applications improves outside of Europe. So we can see improvement in the United States, also in Asia. But generally, the volume in Asia is lower. However, as we already said, especially in Germany, it is still a weak market for this type of product. And in auto sectors, we are told by our customers that they are still in the destocking phase. They had so much material on stock after COVID. And this has not yet been reduced so that they reorder. And with this information, I would like to hand over to Claudia Trampitsch for more details on the financial results.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Good morning from my side as well. So first of all, I want to give some information on the two most important market prices we are influenced by. So first of all, the aluminum price trend lowered in a quarter-on-quarter comparison. So compared to the average aluminum price at the quarter 2023 to quarter one 2024, it's about $190 below. So that will have influenced our revenues as well as our working capital. Further, we see, and we saw a decrease also in the Midwest Premium , which was also in a quarter-to-quarter comparison lower. At the graph, you can see that in April 2024, there was an increase in aluminum price. But this did not influence the first quarter 2024. An opposite trend we could see in the alumina price, which has a significant increase last year.

So that the relation between the aluminum price and the alumina price increases. And that influences the margin of the metal segment. So when we now look at the AMAG Group revenue, you can see that the Group revenue for Q1 2024, as mentioned before, was EUR 335 million, about 17% less than in Q1 2023. So where does that come from? It's the major impacts. In this, apart from the aluminum price, we see reductions because of a price and premiums influence and a volume and mix influence. As we heard before on the developments in the rolling segment, we see that the major effects are there as we have lower volumes. It's around 7,000 tons lower, 5,000 tons, sorry, lower in the rolling department segment than in the first quarter 2023.

But also because of the mix, lower price and premium. When we move over to the EBITDA, we also see that the EBITDA of 2024 is at around 30% lower than the EBITDA quarter one 2023. And that has always result, as we said before. It's not the only the influences on the revenue I mentioned before. But also we saw influences on price and premium, aluminum price. And we saw some positive effects on prices of raw material. There we also saw the influence on the aluminum price. But in the other side, the influence of the alumina price. But as a positive side, we have less energy costs, which you also can see in the graph that we have a positive impact of EUR 20 million resulting out of raw material and energy costs compared to the first quarter 2024.

Perhaps we have a short look at it divided in the divisions because there are different effects in all these divisions. In the Metal Division , I think I already mentioned the main impacts are due to lower aluminum price and premiums and higher alumina costs. In the Casting segment , we saw a stable order intakes and the high productivity. But there is also a lower price level and higher structural costs. So in total, there was also a reduction compared to the first quarter 2023. And the main deviation was in the Rolling Division . And for comparison, I also want to mention that in the first quarter 2023, we had a positive impact due to valuation effects out of EUR 9 million.

And that also increases this picture of a deviation or a lower EBITDA in that segment of EUR 17.5 million, adding to the information we gave you before on lower shipments. Yeah. And the Service Division , I think this EUR 2 million is due to adjustments in transfer prices. Then when we move on to the net income after taxes, which is at EUR 13.3 million ending Q1 2024, which is around half of the net income last year. The only thing that is now to mention additionally to what I already told you before is that there are lower income taxes because of the lower EBITDA. But at the end, it's all more or less influenced by our operating results. So there's nothing additional to mention for the income after tax.

When we now move on to our ESG figures, which we also want to report quarterly to give you some indication how these are developing over the time, we can tell you that we have a scrap utilization rate, which is constantly on a high level. Well, it's influenced by the product mix. But we are able to keep it on that high level and even increase it this quarter compared to last year's quarter. And also for our specific CO2 emission, which is also always influenced by the production mix, we also saw an increase well, a decrease, sorry. It's a better figure. But it's a decrease in emissions. And all the other figures are more or less the same or have to develop over the year.

Now I want to give you some information on the AMAG Group cash flow. As you know, our cash flow figures are always influenced by the aluminum price, which influenced our working capital. And, of course, the operating results. And then as we can tell you that the operating cash flow in Q1 2024 was more or less the same amount as last year. That comes because last year was negatively impacted by increased working capital. And this year, we have a positive effect of our working capital measurements. The investing activities in this year so far were about EUR 26 million compared to EUR 23.5 million last quarter. And that all sums up to a free cash flow of EUR 9.6 million for the first quarter 2024.

When we look at our balance sheet figures, we can say that the key figures remain at the stable level or even increases or show a better result. The net financial debt decreased this quarter as well. We had a decrease compared to last quarter. But as well, a decrease compared to the fourth quarter 2024. And if you look at the ratio net debt to EBITDA, we have a small deviation to last year. But at the end, this is influenced by the EBITDA and not by our debt. And that is also to say about equity and cash, where we have a consistently stable level for both key indicators as the equity increased over the quarters. And also, the cash is higher than at the year-end.

Now I will hand over to Helmut Kaufmann again to give you some information on the outlook for 2024.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Yes. Generally speaking, as I already mentioned, we see a slight improvement in the market compared to the last quarter of 2023. Certain industries, however, are still difficult. I mentioned industrial applications as well as sports and transportation being rather positive. The overall order intakes that we observe at the moment are about at the expected level. So no big surprises. And the general trend for the future given by CRU also basically remains constantly positive. So aluminum, or aluminum demand for our products will grow in the near future. As we said, Germany, Austria, will grow only slightly this year. So this influences our business since Germany is a strong market for us, especially in the industrial applications area.

And we tend to strengthen further our specialty strategy, focus on more difficult products with a high sustainability impact, with high recycled content to differentiate ourselves from our competitors. In with all our flexible equipment and the knowledge of our people, we see that flexibility will be key to success in this vulnerable environment. And we observe quick market changes. And we are mostly able to respond quickly to these as well. So this means that cautiously optimistic view of the rest of 2024. I must say, however, that we expect that Q2 still will not recover that strongly. We see better second half of the year coming up. So this leads us to the outlook for 2024.

I already mentioned, if there is no significant impact anymore in addition to what we already see, then the full-year EBITDA will be somewhere in between EUR 150 million and EUR 180 million. Thank you. We are now ready for your questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wants to ask a question may press star and one. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. Our first question today comes from Wolfgang Matejka from Matejka & Partner . Please go ahead with your question.

Wolfgang Matejka
Analyst, Matejka & Partner

Hello. Do you hear me?

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Yes.

Operator

Yes.

Wolfgang Matejka
Analyst, Matejka & Partner

Okay. Fine. I have one or two questions regarding the actual situation. I'm wondering about your, let's say, a little bit conservative outlook regarding the fact that you currently have an aluminum price that is about the same level as it was in the peak of 2022, where you had excellent earnings, which after that. You have mentioned that the situation currently with alumina and aluminum prices just is a bit liberating, so it's not that stressed as it has been before. So you can expect that the margin on that product is improving due to the current price situation. So would be my first question if this is the case that you can expect in second half a really, let's say, improving market. The other question is regarding the premiums.

Having in mind that, after the last U.S. election with Donald Trump and after all that with the sanctions involved, you did have a massive increase in premium. Everybody wants to be delivered. And it was not that easy to do. So the question is, do you see some kind of pre-ordering currently for some kind of case like this related to the current polls in the U.S. that say that Trump is really challenging Joe Biden, that the sanction situation will come in place again? And the third question on that respect, do you have anything regarding your let's say research and development baby CrossAlloy? Thank you.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

So I take the first question regarding the alumina price aluminum price development and how it is reflected in our outlook. Well, it's right that the aluminum price during April has a big increase. And that was, on the one hand, related to better infrastructure construction demand in the U.S. and China. But also, on sanctions in the U.K. and U.S. on Russian aluminum.

Wolfgang Matejka
Analyst, Matejka & Partner

Right.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

But what we also see is not only that increase. But we see that in some months, already degradation. So we're not sure if that price will be stable on that level, if it's really demand-driven or just a reaction on the sanctions. So therefore, it's not we do not take then the peak that we see at the moment. But also, reflecting our budget, the situation, the upcoming situation. So no, we do not have the peak we see now. That's not the figure that we are relating because we do not we are not quite sure. It's just three weeks that it's quite high if that will reflect the last next nine months, must say.

And I also can perhaps add there the questions regarding U.S. market and Midwest premiums and so on. We see at the moment a little increase in the U.S. premium. It could be demand-driven. But all the research we hear is not about elections but more about the Fed and their policy. So if interest rates go down, that could perhaps have an impact. And there also, nobody knows when it will happen. And the elections are in November. So that's something we do not price now because we don't know. And if the market has not so much demand, I'm not sure if there will be as much pre-ordering. So that's the state of the year or the time in the year, we do not think it's necessary we should reflect on that.

Wolfgang Matejka
Analyst, Matejka & Partner

Okay. So, so no pre-action being visible currently on that. Okay. Yeah.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Yes. Because I think it's quite late at the moment. We do not know. So, with high interest rates, I'm not sure if that only the possibility of Trump winning elections will lead to a run on the market. So in our research, we do not think that.

Wolfgang Matejka
Analyst, Matejka & Partner

No, it would be at first a case on the aluminum price because it will be the earliest mover on a buyer's change on the election side, on the poll side. Yeah.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Yeah.

Wolfgang Matejka
Analyst, Matejka & Partner

Okay.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Concerning your third yeah, concerning your third question on CrossAlloy, actually, there is something new. This is very new. As for all the others who might not be that familiar, this is a new material development that AMAG has been performing over a couple of years now, really starting from the fundamental research, going into industrial research, and approaching, let me say, industrialization stage. What I can tell you, Mr. Kaufmann, is that a couple of days ago, we actually received the first order from an international customer for trials. This is the first money inflow, so to say, from the research to the other. But this is, of course, not yet a real industrial order. It's a trial order. But this is still possible.

Wolfgang Matejka
Analyst, Matejka & Partner

Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Excellent. But it sounds promising. Okay.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Yes.

Wolfgang Matejka
Analyst, Matejka & Partner

Thanks. I don't wanna dig in further because, you know what I mean. Nonetheless, okay. Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot. Good, Mike.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Thank you.

Wolfgang Matejka
Analyst, Matejka & Partner

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Duarte Mota from Kepler. Please go ahead.

Rochus Brauneiser
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Definitely. Good morning, actually. Congratulations on a new quarter. I have also a question on the aluminum price jump following the sanctions. I would like to understand if, I know it's only been 2-3 weeks, but if we if we see this price level, be it on sanctions, not on demand, for the next months, 2 months, I want to understand if your upstream division will see this impact or if there are hedges, and we could not take this into account for the first half. Yeah, that's the first question. Maybe you could, yeah, shed some light on that.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Yeah. It's always difficult to predict how the aluminum price develops. But we normally yes, we have hedged with LME. But we normally do not hedge everything so that we are able to participate in aluminum price increases, for sure. And that could influence our that will positively if it's stable, it will influence our metal division. But what we do not know at the moment, we do not see. But it could also be the case that the alumina price rises as well if there is more demand. And then it gets deteriorated. So it's quite difficult to predict it at the moment. So I would not add it up that way at the moment.

Rochus Brauneiser
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Perfect. Thank you. And another question. You highlighted a good Q1 order backlog above 60,000. Well, firstly, I would like to understand. I believe there's some seasonal effect in Q1 in general. But anyway, it's a good development. I want to understand what sector is supporting this. And on industrial applications, we saw 2% increase. I just want to make sure. This is an increase, yes, but on lower margins than what we've seen in previous years. Correct?

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

That this last part, I did not really hear properly and didn't understand. But your question was, what is contributing to this order backlog? Then, as I already mentioned, especially the transportation segment is developing positive. Automotive for us is still good. It's actually improving for us in general. But we have to see how stable this will be in the future, seeing, for example, that the purchasing numbers in Europe are not so positive. Luckily, we are also delivering to non-European OEMs and outside Europe. And there we see some positive development. And this adds up to this generally positive transportation situation. In addition, of course, our focus area, aircraft. As you know, Airbus is developing positively. Boeing is, of course, still in the news with some difficulties. But also there, AMAG will supply in the near future again.

So this is all reflected in the order backlog. The industrial applications, orders from outside Europe improved, within Europe, weak as we experienced it in the second half of last year.

Rochus Brauneiser
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you. The part of my question I think you could not hear was regarding margins. So pricing on industrial applications.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

I understand. Oh, okay. No, clear. Especially in the area of industrial applications, where there is weak demand, of course, there is also pressure. And we have to react to this. This is clear.

Rochus Brauneiser
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Perfect. And just quickly, inventory is actually increased very slightly from Q4. You mentioned destocking, especially in sports applications. Yeah, could you shed some light on whether U.S. expects further destocking, so year-over-year inventory levels to decrease by the end of 2024?

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

I think this is a misunderstanding. I was talking about the destocking at our customers' side. They have.

Rochus Brauneiser
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Okay.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Fully, they have full storage halls. The demand, for example, for sprockets in the bicycle industry, after a peak during the COVID period where all the suppliers to this industry bought significant amount of materials, are now confronted with full stock. The demand significantly reduced. Therefore, their destocking goes very slowly. Therefore, the reordering, which would then be an order to AMAG, is postponed.

Rochus Brauneiser
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Thank you very much. Understood. Congratulations on another quarter. Thank you.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Welcome.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one. Our next question comes from Christian Obst from Baader Bank. Please go ahead.

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Yeah. Thank you. And good morning. After talking a lot about demand and the price side, I have two questions concerning the cost side, so the internal development of costs. So what do you expect this year, maybe on wage increases? And do you still looking for additional employees? Or are you currently well-staffed? And the second one is about electricity. Of course, this was a major topic over the last 2022, 2023. What is the current situation there? And what kind of cost development do you expect for this year? Thank you.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Concerning the employee situation, I can tell you, of course, we had this very high or this steep increase by the end of last year, which influences our labor cost significantly. Unfortunately, they already fixed the next coming increase with about 1% above inflation for the next year. So labor cost is a significant factor. However, we of course watch carefully and manage this as well as we can. We do expect, nonetheless, a slight increase in the overall number of employees by the end of this year. So this means there is no drastic cut to be expected, to make it clear, because what we expect is that we have to prepare our team for the upcoming year, for an increase in volume. And as you know, we have to train new people, I would say, minimum six months.

So, looking forward, and I mentioned already the slightly positive outlook that we have for the second half, as well as CRU's comments for the upcoming years, we have to prepare ourselves. There we are carefully growing, with a constant look at our cost.

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Okay. Thank you. And on the,

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

On the on the.

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Yeah.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Energy cost. Well, I want to divide it between the two divisions, the metal segment and the rolling and casting segment, division. For the metal division, you know, we have the aluminum,

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Yeah.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Power contract. So that's linked to how the aluminum price develops. On our Austrian two divisions, casting and rolling, we can say that we saw the decrease of the energy prices as well for power as also for gas this year. But when we look at the forward curve, we do not see that much in decrease coming up. So it could be the same. Or it will perhaps become. It's dependent on how it will develop then, at the last two quarters, perhaps. So we do not expect that it will be lower than now.

And what we do is that we not only, for power, for example, look at if we should do some hedges, but also look at diversify the source of our power so that we have also the possibilities to, for example, we're now building another photovoltaic at our plant and so on. So that's what we are doing to help to diversify there as well in the source.

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Well, it's on an electricity side, it's all almost stable, what you expect, more or less, going in this year.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

at least I do not expect a decrease.

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Yeah.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Additional.

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Okay.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Because now we're at the beginning of the second quarter. I do not think that now, if there's no disruption in the market, I do not think that it will get that much slow. Of course, it has an impact if you compare the prices at the market at the beginning of last year to this year, there was a decrease.

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Yeah. Coming back to the employee and your wages, so you're slightly expecting some kind of an increase of demand going forward. And you are preparing your company for that. So what is the main CapEx program underlying? Or what is the main program where you expect the investment to go in 2024 and 2025? Or is everything fine now, and the entire structure is set, and you're only waiting for demand?

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

To give you an indication, we are planning to invest somewhere in the range of the depreciation, which is somewhere in the range of, let me say, EUR 85 million-90 million, maybe a little more, depending on how the projects move further. Of course, we don't only have to look at the Ranshofen site, but also to Canada. There is refurbishment of a major anode baking furnace. This is maybe the biggest single investment position in this year. But there are other investments going into automation, like other refurbishing activities, renewal of different things. And there are first steps also in electrifying furnaces from previous or current natural gas burners into electricity. So these are first steps of the decarbonization program that we are in yet.

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Okay.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

There's still a lot to do. Yeah.

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Yeah. Always a lot to do to keep things running, of course. But nevertheless, no, not the major CapEx program to improve volumes or capacity going forward.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Yeah. The only thing that I might add is the biggest project in the recent past was what we call the Bandveredelung. So, it's a kind of a big.

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Yeah.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Yeah, a pickling line. This project was finished in time and slightly below budget even. So this was a really good project. And we are here now in the startup phase. So the current plan is, for this year, we will have a parallel action of the old and the new equipment because we have to qualify our products at our customers. And but then we can say this was a, as you know, around EUR 50 million project. And I would say, again, a project success.

Christian Obst
Analyst, Baader Bank

Oh, again, a good project management for the regulations. Yeah. Thank you very much and all the best.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Yeah. Welcome.

Operator

Thank you.

The next question comes from Michael Marschallinger from Stifel Europe. Please go ahead.

Michael Marschallinger
Analyst, Erste Group

Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two in the guidance range. Firstly, just a verification. As I understood it, the recent increase in the aluminum price is not in any way reflected in the guidance. This would be then some additional earnings upside, if it would stay higher. Is that correct?

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Well, we did not. It's in a way reflected, but perhaps not with the peak price. Let's put it that way. Because for sure, we looked at forward prices. And we took something into it. But also, with the expectation we see in the market and the uncertainty, as it's still nine months, let's say, to go, we also had there some decrease on it. So it's not on the peak. But we took some part of it.

Michael Marschallinger
Analyst, Erste Group

Okay.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

So you.

Michael Marschallinger
Analyst, Erste Group

Okay. Understood.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

We do not add up everything. That's not the.

Michael Marschallinger
Analyst, Erste Group

Yeah. Okay. Understood. And maybe on this guidance range, could you maybe walk us through your main assumption for this range? And as it is for now, it's only cautiously optimistic. What I take, this quarter past, last year, PMI seemed to be inflecting. Electricity cost stable. So, what are your main drivers in either direction at the moment?

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

As you heard in our presentation, there are always main market prices that inflect or impact our range or our results. And therefore, we take assumptions for aluminum price, as you already said. And we have assumptions for Midwest Premium, Rotterdam Premium, alumina price, for sure, for currency rates and energy costs. But what also in it affects the range is what we heard before from Helmut Kaufmann, how the order intake looks like, how we see the demand in various business sectors. So it's that all it's a quite detailed process, let's put it that way, where we also do these different scenarios. And that all then comes up to what look like just numbers.

But we have a detailed process behind it to come up with that numbers. And as you, as we have proved in the past, we're always quite good with our range that we publish. So that's the range we are comfortable with.

Michael Marschallinger
Analyst, Erste Group

Okay. Yeah. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, for any further questions, please press star and one. Our next question comes from Markus Remis from RBI. Please go ahead.

Markus Remis
Analyst, RBI

Yeah. Good morning. Actually, just a few minor clarifications left. Firstly, I would be interested to get a sense of the normal seasonality of the order intake. I mean, in recent years, there were so many factors that have distorted the normal seasonality. So if you could run us through what you how we should think about the trends over the quarters in the rolling segment.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Honestly speaking, I have difficulties now in dividing into seasons. Yeah. Of course, we have some things that have, for example, longer-term contracts. And then we have products that have more the spot type of business. And the spot type of business is mostly in the industrial applications areas. While, let me say, aircraft or automotive business is usually on minimum annual contracts, but rather longer contracts. And this also means that, let me say, there are no real, like, surprising increases or surprising drops in the standard OEM businesses outside of the industrial applications. So basically, major flexi and, as we said before, the order index are in the expected area because this is the case. Because we know the relationship to our customers. And therefore, this is expected.

And so, it's, it's basically the industrial applications area that can breathe throughout the year.

Markus Remis
Analyst, RBI

Okay. Got it. And, maybe I missed that one. But, can you, maybe shed some light on the pricing, in the rolling, and your expectations going forward? So do you think that now, with this kind of, inflection point on the order side, this means all the prices are bottoming out, leaving now the mixed aspect aside, which I think should rather work in favor of AMAG? But is that something where you think the worst is behind in terms of price pressures? Solely through a Q2, eventually?

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Well, honestly speaking, I do not, I cannot say that this was already the lowest level. Please be aware, we supply to maybe 1,000 customers and several thousand products. And so it differentiates from product to product. But when I try to sum up something, as I mentioned already before, then I have to say that in the area of industrial application, there is the biggest pressure. This is also because of the weak market demand and also the capacity that our competitors have in the market. And so this limited demand is, of course, of big interest for everybody. And therefore, there is the price pressure.

Markus Remis
Analyst, RBI

Yeah. and.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

But the rest, as I already said, you know, there are longer-term contracts in place. And so this has no immediate impact at the moment.

Markus Remis
Analyst, RBI

Okay. Yeah. Last question would be asking quite specifically about the targeted shipment range for rolling in the year. I mean, would you agree that maybe 210,000 tons ± is a reasonable assumption?

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Let me say, I do not expect that it is below last year.

Markus Remis
Analyst, RBI

Right. Okay. Good. And we agree on that. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I will turn back to Christoph Gabriel for closing comments.

Christoph Gabriel
Head of Investor Relations, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for joining this call. As always, I'm happy and invite you to give me a call should there be any questions left. Otherwise, I wish you a great Wednesday and see you soon. Thank you. Bye.

Helmut Kaufmann
CEO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

Claudia Trampitsch
CFO, AMAG Austria Metall AG

Thank you. Goodbye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen.

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