Welcome to the OMV Results, January to December and Q4 2025 conference call and webcast. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised, today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to refer you to the disclaimer, which includes our position on forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on beliefs, estimates, and assumptions currently held by, and information currently available to OMV. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of OMV.
Therefore, recipients are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. OMV disclaims any obligation and does not intend to update these forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, revised assumptions and expectations, and future developments and events. This presentation does not contain any recommendation or invitation to buy or sell securities in OMV. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Florian Greger, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Sustainability. Please go ahead, Mr. Greger.
Thank you, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to OMV's earnings call for the fourth quarter, 2025. With me on the call are OMV CEO, Alfred Stern, and our CFO, Reinhard Florey . Alfred and Reinhard will walk you through the highlights of the quarter and discuss OMV's financial performance. Following their presentations, the two gentlemen will be available to take your questions. With that, I'll hand it over to Alfred.
Thank you, Florian. Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and thank you for joining us. Before I discuss the details of our fourth quarter performance, I would like to briefly reflect on the operational and strategic highlights of last year. Despite the challenging economic and geopolitical backdrop, we achieved a strong performance across our three business segments. In energy, we were able to almost reach the prior year oil and gas production level if we exclude the divestment of the Malaysian business. We slightly increased our fuel sales volumes, reinforcing our position as a supplier of choice in the downstream sector. In chemicals, total polyolefin sales volumes, which include the joint ventures, rose by 3% year-on-year, underscoring our product strength in a challenging market environment. Our Clean CCS operating result reached a strong EUR 4.6 billion, however, decreased by 10% compared to the prior year quarter.
Importantly, despite the difficult backdrop, our cash flow from operations, the basis for shareholder distributions, amounted to EUR 5.2 billion and thus was just 4% lower than the year before. This resilience demonstrates again the strength of our integrated business model, delivering robust cash flows in a volatile market environment. A particular achievement worth noting is that by the end of 2025, we have already surpassed 70% of our efficiency program 2027 target, demonstrating our steadfast commitment to operational excellence and supporting our strong cash flow generation. We have maintained a disciplined approach to investments. Our balance sheet remains very strong, reflected in a very healthy leverage ratio of only 14%. This strong financial position provides us with the necessary flexibility to to navigate market uncertainties while continuing to invest in future growth opportunities and OMV's transformation.
Ladies and gentlemen, as promised, our shareholders will directly benefit from our success. For the financial year 2025, we will propose to the annual general meeting a regular dividend of EUR 3.15 per share, and again, an attractive additional dividend of EUR 1.25. In total, this will amount to a cash dividend of EUR 4.40 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 9.3% based on the closing price of last year. This payout will represent 28% of our cash flow from operating activities. Despite the weaker economic environment, OMV will once again offer attractive shareholder distributions. Let me briefly highlight our strategic progress in 2025. In the energy segment, the flagship gas project of OMV Petrom, Neptune Deep, remains firmly on track and within budget for a targeted startup in 2027.
This marks a major milestone in our ongoing commitments to diversifying and securing gas supply. We strongly believe in the Black Sea's potential for the region and have reinforced our position through further exploration in Bulgaria, partnering with NewMed Energy and the Bulgarian state. Exploration drilling in Han-Asparuh began in December 2025, with the Noble Globetrotter I vessel contracted to drill two exploration wells. Having two rigs simultaneously in operation, one offshore Bulgaria and another offshore Romania, represents a significant achievement for OMV Petrom. We have successfully diversified our gas portfolio, ensuring continuous and uninterrupted supply to all our customers since more than one year. As a result, we are no longer dependent on any single supplier and now have the strongest gas portfolio in OMV's history. In renewables, OMV Petrom achieved notable progress by expanding its renewable power capacity, advancing towards a leadership in Southeastern Europe.
With advanced geothermal energy projects, we completed drilling and the successful production test in Vienna and are on track to commission our first geothermal plant by 2028. In October last year, we have made an oil discovery in Libya, in the Sirte Basin, with estimated recoverable volumes between 15 and 42 million BOE. What makes this especially promising is the location, just 7 kilometers from existing infrastructure. Turning to fuels, our co-processing plant is operational and producing renewable diesel. In April last year, we started up our 10-megawatt electrolyzer plant in Schwechat, the biggest of its kind in Austria. Construction of the SAF HVO plant at Petrobrazi is progressing as scheduled, with startup targeted for 2028. We are also investing in around 200-megawatt electrolyzer capacity in Austria and Romania.
These green hydrogen projects are fully integrated with our refineries and primarily designed to supply our own facilities' captive demand. In retail, we have nearly doubled our EV charging network in 2025 and rebranded our retail stations, underscoring our commitment to sustainable mobility and enhanced customer service. In chemicals, the game-changing agreement with ADNOC to form Borouge Group International establishes a global polyolefin powerhouse and more resilient chemicals growth platform. We successfully commissioned our ReOil chemical recycling plant and continue to advance key growth projects, such as Kallo and Borouge 4. Kallo is expected to start up in the second half of this year, while Borouge 4 production is expected to ramp up through 2026 as units are commissioned and brought online. The first unit of Borouge 4 should come online still this quarter.
Aligned with our Strategy 2030, we remain focused on an agile transformation, responding to evolving customer needs, all while maintaining strong cash flow discipline and carefully managed investments to ensure attractive returns for our shareholders. Let me update you on the status of Borouge Group International. We made very good progress regarding the closing of the transaction and expect this, as previously communicated, in the first quarter of this year. We are pleased to report that we have already secured all necessary foreign direct investment approvals, as well as almost all the other required regulatory clearances. In addition, in preparation for the acquisition of NOVA Chemicals, we have successfully completed our financing process. We have secured $15.4 billion, ensuring that sufficient liquidity is in place to support the transaction. At this stage, the primary remaining tasks are to obtain the outstanding clearances.
Discussions regarding the recruitment of BGI executive board and executive leadership team positions are nearly complete. Announcements regarding these appointments, along with nominations for the supervisory board, will be made in due course. Finally, the active collaboration between ADNOC, OMV, Borouge, Borealis, and NOVA Chemicals has resulted in detailed plans for day one and beyond, and we have established a robust framework from the very outset of the integration to realize the synergies of more than $500 million. Overall, these developments clearly demonstrate strong momentum, and we remain confident in the successful closing and integration of Borouge Group International. Let me now move on to the details of our fourth quarter performance. Our Clean CCS operating result reached around EUR 1.15 million, representing a decrease of EUR 222 million or 16% compared to the same quarter of 2024.
Excluding the positive net effect of EUR 210 billion arbitration award received in the fourth quarter of 2024, our Clean CCS operating result would have been broadly in line with the prior year quarter, despite lower oil and gas prices. The quarter was marked by significant geopolitical volatility. Brent crude prices declined, driven by a weak short-term demand outlook and increased OPEC+ output. The introduction of new U.S. sanctions against major Russian oil exporters were somewhat supportive. European gas prices also fell, despite the onset of the winter season, as demand was easily met, thanks to ample LNG supply. Refining margins increased further, supported by product tightness, resulting from the announced sanctions on Russian refiners and unplanned outages at other refineries. In the chemicals market, we observed some improvement of the olefin indicator margins.
However, overall demand remains subdued, with many customers focused on reducing their inventories before the end of the year. The Clean CCS tax rate saw a significant decline from 50% to 36%. This was mainly due to a reduced share in the overall group of certain companies in the energy segment located in high-tax countries, as well as stronger contribution from at equity accounted investments. As a result, Clean CCS earnings per share remained nearly stable at EUR 1.7 per share. At EUR 1.7 billion, our cash flow from operating activities was truly exceptional this quarter, jumping by over 60% year-over-year. This very strong operating cash flow clearly demonstrates our continued ability to generate strong liquidity, even in the face of a challenging market environment.
The clean operating result in the energy segment dropped markedly to EUR 586 million. Around 40% of the decrease is explained by one-time effects: the Malaysia divestment and the net arbitration award of EUR 210 million received in the prior year quarter. The remainder, approximately EUR 390 million, was largely attributable to decreased oil and gas prices, as well as lower sales volumes. The realized oil price fell by 13% to $62 per barrel, mirroring the movement in Brent prices. Our realized gas price decreased by 14%, averaging EUR 26 per megawatt hour, thus less than European gas hub prices, which declined by 28%. This was mainly due to changes in portfolio composition following the divestment of SapuraOMV. Additionally, negative currency developments impacted our results by about EUR 80 million compared to the prior year quarter.
Production volumes decreased by 11% to 300,000 BOE per day. The main reason was the sale of the Malaysian assets, which had contributed 24,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter of 2024. Excluding the effect from the divestment, E&P production declined by about 4% due to production declines in Norway, Romania, and New Zealand, reflecting their field's natural decline, partly offset by slightly higher output in the UAE. Unit production costs rose slightly to above $10 per barrel. This increase resulted mainly from lower production volumes and unfavorable exchange rate movements. Cost reduction measures had a mitigating effect. Sales volumes decreased by 65,000 BOE per day, thus stronger than production. In addition to the missing volumes from SapuraOMV, the sales in Norway and Libya were lower due to the lifting schedule.
The result of gas marketing and power declined to EUR 160 million, primarily due to the missing positive impact from the arbitration award received in the fourth quarter of 2024. Aside from the arbitration award, Gas West decreased mainly due to lower release of transport provision. The contribution of Gas East rose strongly, driven by excellent results across both the gas and power business lines, supported by higher gas sales volumes and increased production of the Brazi power plant in the context of power market deregulation. The Clean CCS operating result of the fuels segment more than tripled to EUR 346 million... primarily driven by substantially stronger refining indicator margins, a significantly higher contribution from upstream refining and global trading, and improved results of the marketing business.
This strong performance was partially offset by, among others, negative production effects related to repairs at the Burghausen Refinery. The European refining indicator margin rose sharply to $14 per barrel, while the refining utilization rate remained high at 89%. The marketing business delivered a higher contribution compared to the prior year quarter, with retail performance benefiting from slightly improved fuel margins due to a more favorable quotation development for oil products, higher non-fuel business profitability, and slightly higher sales volumes following the acquisition of retail stations in Slovakia. The performance of the commercial business came in slightly better as well, supported by higher contributions from the aviation business and increased sales volumes. The contribution of upstream refining and global trading increased significantly to EUR 51 million, mainly due to a better market environment.
The clean operating result of the chemical segment rose sharply to EUR 236 million, driven to a large extent by the stop of Borealis depreciation. In our European business, we recorded favorable market effects totaling EUR 58 million, reflecting higher olefin indicator margins. Inventory effects were slightly lower. The utilization rate of our European crackers stood at 72%, which is significantly below the level of the prior year quarter. This was mainly because of weaker demand and inventory optimization measures at year-end. Nevertheless, the result of OMV-based chemicals improved due to stronger olefin margins. The contribution from Borealis, excluding joint ventures, increased to EUR 89 million, mostly driven by the stop of depreciation. However, the results of both base chemicals and polyolefins declined. The base chemicals result was affected by lower utilization rate, as well as decreased feedstock advantage and phenol margins.
Improved olefin indicator margins in Europe and lower fixed costs provided some support. For polyolefins, the contribution decreased primarily due to softer indicator margins and greater market discounts. This was partially counterbalanced by reduced fixed costs. Polyolefin sales volumes for Borealis, excluding joint ventures, grew by 4%, largely attributable to higher sales in the infrastructure and consumer product sectors. Contributions from our joint ventures rose by EUR 41 million, mainly reflecting the deconsolidation of Baystar. The contribution from Borouge remained broadly stable versus the fourth quarter of 2024, as a less favorable market environment in Asia was compensated for by substantially higher sales volumes. Thank you for your attention, and I will now hand over to Reinhard.
Thank you, Alfred, and good morning from my side as well. At the beginning of 2024, we launched a comprehensive efficiency program aimed at generating at least EUR 500 million of additional sustainable annual operating cash flow by the end of 2027. This initiative helped to mitigate inflationary cost increases we have experienced over the past years, as well as effects from lower commodity prices. In October, we had announced that even considering the BGI transaction and resulting deconsolidation of Borealis, we expect to achieve the originally targeted at least EUR 500 million from the efficiency program. As we introduced a new cost savings program of EUR 400 million by end of 2027, further de-risking the program's implementation. This program is well on track.
By the end of 2025, we successfully delivered more than EUR 350 million of additional cash flow compared to 2023, which represents around 70% of our 2027 target. We achieved this through technical improvements in oil production, optimization of gas flows, reduction of E&P cost base, as well as various margin improvement measures and refining optimization related to utilities, crude supply, and energy efficiency. Overall, more than EUR 100 million are attributable to operational cost reduction measures. This builds upon our continued drive for operational excellence, following initiatives from prior years, with the impact clearly visible on our cash flow from operating activities. Turning to cash flows, our fourth quarter operating cash flow, excluding net working capital effects, was EUR 821 million.
This figure was impacted by a significant net cash outflow related to CO2 emission certificates of around EUR 330 million, which is always booked for the year-end in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the net cash related to CO2 emission certificates was around EUR 270 million euros, largely offset by the one-off net gas arbitration award of more than EUR 200 million. The year-on-year decline also reflects a lower contribution from energy, partially compensated by lower tax payments and a higher contribution from fuels. Net working capital cash inflows were very strong, at EUR 860 million, and more than reversed the -EUR 400 million recorded in the third quarter of 2025.
This was largely driven by substantial inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, 2025, whereas in the prior year quarter, we recorded a negative effect of around EUR 140 million. As a result, the cash flow from operating activities amounted to around EUR 1.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase of more than 60% compared with the previous year's quarter. Let us now look at the full year's picture. At EUR 5.2 billion, cash flow from operating activities was once again very strong, only 4% below the high 2024 level. After payment of dividends of EUR 2.3 billion, our free cash flow to the + EUR 180 million, supported by inorganic cash inflows coming from the cash divestments and Bayport loan repayment.
Our balance sheet remains very strong, with a leverage ratio of only 14% at the end of 2025, despite ongoing macro challenges. Our financial strength is also reflected in our investment-grade credit ratings, A- from Fitch and A3 from Moody's, both with stable outlook. This strong rating underscores our healthy capital structure and prudent financial management. Following the closing of the BGI transaction, we anticipate our leverage ratio to increase, mainly as a result of the deconsolidation of Borealis equity and net debt from our balance sheet, as well as the agreed equity injection of up to EUR 1.6 billion into BGI to equalize OMV's and ADNOC's shareholdings. I think it's worth highlighting that even after this game-changing transaction, we anticipate our leverage ratio to be in the low 20s by year-end, well below the mid- and long-term threshold of 30%.
This reflects our commitment to maintaining a robust capital structure and healthy balance sheet. Such a strong financial position provides us with the ability to do both: continue with attractive shareholder distributions and moving forward based on our headroom with our strategic growth initiatives. We once again deliver on our promise and offer our shareholders attractive distributions. We will propose to the annual general meeting an increase regular dividend of EUR 3.15 per share, plus an additional dividend of EUR 1.25 per share. Thus, we will distribute total dividends of EUR 4.40 per share, which is an attractive yield of 9.3% based on the closing price, year-end 2025.
With a total payout of 28% of our operating cash flow, we once again went to the upper part of the guided corridor of 20%-30% of operating cash flow. Since 2015, we have delivered every single year on our progressive dividend policy, which aims to increase the dividend every year, or at least maintain it at the respective prior year level. Over that period, we have more than tripled our regular dividend from EUR 1 per share to now EUR 3.15 in 2022, to further enhance our shareholder distributions. We had introduced an additional variable dividend, which we now also paid for the fourth consecutive year. OMV remains committed to pay attractive dividends to its shareholders.
As announced on our capital markets update in October last year, we are introducing a new dividend policy, effective as of this financial year, that builds upon our previous approach and incorporates the clear benefits arising from the BGI transaction for our shareholders. Under the new policy, OMV will distribute 50% of the BGI dividend attributable to OMV, in addition to distributing 20%-30% of cash flow from operating activities from our consolidated businesses. Our dividend will continue to consist of two components: a progressive regular dividend, which we strive to increase each year, or at least maintain at the previous year's level, and an additional variable dividend, which will be paid if our leverage ratio remains below the 30% threshold. This approach aligns with our commitment to deliver attractive and growing shareholder returns, supported by strengthened cash flows and a solid capital structure.
Based on the estimated closing in the first quarter of this year, we expect Borouge Group International to pay at least the floor dividend for the full year 2026, which means net to OMV, at least $1 billion. The dividend will be paid in 2 tranches. Now, let me move to the outlook, beginning with capital spending. For the year 2026, we expect organic CapEx to be around EUR 3.2 billion, substantially lower than the past few years... reflecting the deconsolidation of the Borealis business and our ongoing capital discipline. The major growth projects in 2026 are the Neptune Deep Project, which is scheduled to start up next year, the SAF HVO plant in Romania, and the green hydrogen plants in Austria and Romania.
In the following years to 2030, the average organic CapEx will be below the guided level of EUR 2.8 billion per annum, outlined at our capital market updates. About 60% of our organic CapEx in 2026 will be allocated to energy, with the majority of the remaining spend going to fuels. Following the BGI transaction and the deconsolidation of the Borealis business, organic investments explicitly shown in our financial statements in chemicals will be relatively small, reflecting only our fully consolidated chemicals business, specifically the refinery-integrated crackers in Austria and Germany, and the new plastic waste sorting plant in Germany. The latter is expected to start up this year. Around 70% of our organic CapEx in 2026 is dedicated to growth, positioning OMV for the future.
In addition to Neptune Deep, major organic growth and project initiatives include developments in Norway, Austria, the UAE, and renewable power initiatives in Romania. In the fuel segment, we are advancing key projects like the SAF HVO plant, as well as the two hydrogen plants in Romania and Austria. Around 30% of the investments planned for 2026 are allocated to sustainable projects in line with our average guidance for 2030. Please note that our guidance for organic CapEx of EUR 3.2 billion in 2026 excludes any expenditures related to Borealis. Let me conclude now with our outlook for key market assumptions and operations for 2026. We forecast an average Brent price of around $65 per barrel.
The a verage THE gas price is estimated above 30 EUR per megawatt hour, while the OMV average realized gas price is expected to be below 30 EUR per megawatt hour. In energy, we expect average oil and gas production of slightly below 300,000 BOE per day, reflecting natural decline and assuming no interruption in Libya. The unit production cost is expected to stay below $11 per barrel, supported by various planned cost initiatives. Exploration and appraisal expenditure for the group is expected to be below EUR 200 million, in line with previous years' spending. In fuels, the refining indicator margin is projected to be around $8 per barrel. We anticipate the utilization rate of our European refineries to be above 90%. No major maintenance is planned throughout the year at our refineries, supporting high operational availability.
Total fuel sales volumes are expected to be higher than last year. Retail margins are projected to be slightly below the levels seen in 2025, while commercial margins are also anticipated to decline. In chemicals, we do not anticipate a significant market recovery in the first half of 2026. Following the closing of the BGI transaction, Borealis will become part of the new company, in which OMV and ADNOC will hold equal shares. BGI will be reported at equity within our financial statements, hence, we will no longer report separate KPIs for the polyolefin business. These will henceforth be published by BGI. However, we will continue to provide an outlook for European olefin indicator margins, which will impact our fully consolidated chemicals business.
We expect market indicator margins to be slightly below the levels of the previous year, with realized margins continuing to be affected by prevailing market discounts. The utilization rate of our two crackers is expected to rise to approximately 90% in 2026. There are no major turnarounds planned for the year. The clean tax rate for the full year is expected to be around 45%. Thank you for your attention. Alfred and I will now be happy to take your questions.
Thank you, Alfred and Reinhard. Let's now come to your questions. As always, I'd ask you to limit your questions to only two at a time, so that we can take as many questions as possible. You can, of course, always re-queue for a follow-up question. We begin the Q&A session with Josh Stone from UBS.
Yeah, thanks, Florian, and good morning, everyone. Two questions. Firstly, on CapEx, it looks like there was a slight overspend in 25, like, compared to your initial guidance. So anything you want to flag on what might have been driving that? And then also for 2026, at least the spending out looked a bit higher than what I had in, or certainly higher than the long-term guide. So any comments around, you know, what the key building blocks within that, and any potential risks that you can see in this year's budget?
And then second one, I wanted to focus on your chemicals result, particularly on the olefin side, which everyone's been extremely bearish on European chemicals, and yet here you are, you've got a sort of almost doubling of your monomers profits this quarter. What would you say is driving that better result? And anyone else? And then I think if we're thinking about next year, given this is the business that will stay on your balance sheet, so what should we be thinking? Thanks.
Okay, maybe let me start a little bit with the chemicals and olefins part, and then Reinhard will add and explain the CapEx. On the chemical side, I would really say, as you could see, right, 2024 our chemical sales went up some 10%, the last year was +3%. This is really because of the position that we have in the Borealis crackers, with mainly Nordic crackers having light feedstock advantage. They are very cost competitive and thus able to run at high rates.
While the OMV crackers in Germany and in Austria are fully integrated into our refineries, and we can use that integration advantage to also optimize our margins. So, while we see, as you can see on our outlook, for 2026, more or less flat kind of margin expectation for ethylene and propylene, we do believe that we are in a, in a strong position also as a local and integrated supplier here.
Yeah, Josh, regarding your CapEx observation, you're, of course, right. I would rather like to explain, we had guided for EUR 3.6 billion. We came out with EUR 3.7 billion. In fact, we only had an overrun of EUR 90 million, which is around 2%. This happened very much in the downstream part, with the new activities, specifically around our big projects, with electrolyzers and the HVO plants, where we already started with some spending on long lead items. This is more or less distributed among a variety of projects. There is not a significant big overspend in one project.
In 2026, it is very clear that we start with a higher CapEx compared to the average of the years until 2030, because we still have the Neptune project in full, the HVO SAF plant in full, and also the main part of the spendings on the electrolyzer plants. So therefore, this average is, of course, a little bit distorted, and we are geared towards a little bit higher, but significantly lower, though, compared to 2025. So therefore, regarding risks that you see, we do not see significant risks of overspend because we have contracted out the projects in a very, very high degree.
That is also true for Neptune project, and we are going with the speed that we anticipate in spending, in order to make sure that 2027 is the year for startup of Neptune project.
Thank you.
Thanks a lot, Josh, for your questions. We now move to Gui Levy from Morgan Stanley. Guy, please, please go ahead with your questions.
Hi. Yes, good morning. I have two questions, please. First one, maybe on working capital. The company, of course, enjoyed a very strong release in the fourth quarter, and I know it's too early in the year, but I was wondering if you could say a few words in terms of how much and how quickly you would expect that working capital release to reverse over the course of this year?
Secondly, on exploration, if you could share with us if you have any initial results from your exploration well in Bulgaria, expectations in terms of drilling completion, and also, following the recent announcement on the Bulgarian government joining the block, if you are currently happy with your stake in that asset, or if we could still expect further dilution for OMV Petrom from here? Thank you.
Yeah, Gui, let me start with the working capital. We indeed enjoyed a strong cash inflow from working capital optimization in the fourth quarter. However, this does not reflect any, I would say, unnatural levels. This, on the one hand side, reflects very much the business environment in which we operate, and we were able to significantly also reduce our inventory levels, actually, in all three segments. Why am I saying that? Because also the inventory levels in the energy business with our gas storage are now at a lower level, maybe compared to earlier years. This is a tribute to the cold winter and also to the very, I would say, small summer-winter spreads that have been available throughout 2025.
So we anticipate that also after the first quarter, we will come out with an even lower level of inventories of storage in there.
... How fast will the recovery be? It depends very much on the boundary conditions that we see. If economy picks up strongly in both refining as well as in chemical, of course, also our inventories will go up. This is not what we expect as a situation in the first half of 2026. And we will also then in Q2 and Q3 see how much of gas storage will be available for decent prices that we can lock in, and then put the gas storages again on the level appropriate for surviving the next winter for all our customers. So, this is something that will come across the full year in smaller stages, but as said, this is not an unusual level of working capital that we have at this point of time.
Okay, Guy, and regarding the exploration in the Black Sea in Bulgaria, maybe just to recap here quickly, OMV Petrom is the operator there with a 45% share, together with NewMed with 45% share, and the Bulgarian Energy Holding with 10% share. And we have contracted the Noble Globetrotter I drill ship that will drill two offshore exploration wells. The first drill started in December.
Then as it is with all these explorations, right, we need to wait for the results what we get there. Maybe also on the estimated cost for the two wells, that's about EUR 170 million for the two wells together, and the agreements that OMV Petrom made with the partners are such that the total cost for OMV Petrom for both wells will be about EUR 30 million. Yeah. But, it's exploration, right? So, let's wait and see what we find. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Gui, for your questions. Now we come to Henry Tarr, Berenberg.
Hi,
Hi.
Thanks for taking the questions. Two, if I may. The first, just on the fuels business, we've obviously seen weaker refining margins this year. Where are you averaging sort of Q1 to date, and how do you see the outlook here for the rest of the quarter and then 2026?
You said two questions, Henry?
Well, that's the first. I can come back on the second, if ...
Ah, yeah, yeah. Okay.
Okay.
Then let me try and answer your question. Yes, indeed, refining indicator margins, what we found in the fourth quarter, last year, we were at about 14, but with declining kind of thing through the quarter, right? So, in December, we saw the margins coming down, and then we picked up in January at around 8. Yeah. So more or less, what we see as the expectation for the average for the year. I have to say, right, looking back at the last three years, refining indicator margins were extremely volatile, very difficult to predict. Supply chains rearranging themselves. We see outages, and so on. So our prediction would be around 8, January also started around that level.
I would see that maybe that's about what the predictability of the segment, let's say, right?
Okay. That's great. And then the second question is just on BGI and the floor dividend. So I think you've said, but I just wanted to double-check that if the merger goes ahead as planned and completes in Q1, you'd expect the floor dividend to be paid in 2026. I guess, are there any... If the merger takes a little bit longer, is there a risk that the dividend gets prorated or anything like that, just for this year? Or is it fixed for 2026 at that floor dividend level? Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, Henry. The floor dividend contractually is fixed to be a full dividend for 2026. That is our expectation, and this is the way how we also calculate. Personally, I do not have any doubts that we will not close in Q1.
That's very clear. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Henry, for your questions. We now come to Adnan Dhanani from RBC. Adnan, please go ahead with your question.
... Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Two for me, please. Just wanted to follow up on the BGI dividend, just in the context of your comments earlier saying that the 2026 dividend would be at least at the floor level. I think at the CMD, you mentioned that the dividend would likely be at the floor for 2-3 years. So is there a change in the thinking that it could be at least floor level this year, could be higher, or is that still thinking that it's gonna be 2-3 years of just being at the floor level? And then the second question, just on your upstream production guidance.
Obviously, with the 2030 target that was upgraded, just want to get your view on the current M&A landscape and just how you're seeing the market right now for barrels? Thank you.
Yeah, Adnan, maybe on the first question. You know me, I never lose my optimism. But realistically speaking, I expect that that will be the floor dividend, which already is a very attractive thing for the current situation of the market. But theoretically, if the market picks up and the whole economy fires up, then I'm confident that also the dividend policy will kick in and could have an upside. But realistically speaking, I calculate with the floor dividend level and enjoy the around $1 billion coming to OMV. Okay, and let me try on the upstream, Adnan.
So, just as a reminder, right, we said from 2025 level, we have natural decline, and then we have organic projects. One is a very big Neptune project, which contributes directly the 50% share in OMV Petrom 70,000 barrels to our production target. And then, there's other organic projects that we have across our portfolio that contribute in the 70,000. And that means we have about another 70,000, more or less, that we need to close inorganically, and we said our strategy will be that we want to strengthen the portfolio in and around Europe that we have to make sure we can move this forward.
We are actively trying to fill a pipeline to do that, but at this point, nothing has progressed enough that I could give you specifics on any kind of deal.
All right, thanks for the call.
Thank you, Adnan, for your questions. Before we come to the next, we have one in, more in the queue. If you would like to ask a question, you can press star one, one. Now let's come to Oleg Galbur from ODDO BHF with the next question.
Yes, good afternoon, and congratulations on the robust results. I have two questions. The first one is on the fuel segment, and more specifically, the marketing business. In the past, you were disclosing the average EBIT contribution per filling station, and I wonder if you could already give us the number for 2025. And my second question is on chemicals. You mentioned earlier the startup we expected at, or planned at PDH Kallo and Borouge 4. So taking into consideration that the recovery of the petrochemicals market is not yet in sight, what level of annual EBITDA would you expect to be delivered by PDH Kallo and Borouge 4 in the current market environment? And since I'm at the end of the list, maybe I can take advantage and ask a very short third question on Libya discovery.
You mentioned earlier, when do you expect the new discovery to start contributing to production from Libya? Thank you very much.
Oleg, thank you for your questions. Let me start with the fuel question on the marketing business. So what we did in the capital market update last year, we updated to give a, let's say, a deeper look into our fuel segment. We updated on the EBIT contributions of our retail marketing type of business. We do not and we have not regularly in the quarterlies updated on this number, right?
But what I can tell you is, that this is something that helped, last year and also in the fourth quarter, that we were able to continue, to not just grow the contribution from the fuel business in retail, but also, non-fuel has grown, there and, making good contributions. And we continue to see this as a, as a value growth driver, that we can do. This is our VIVA stores, where we sell both gastronomy and other shop products, but it is also, around EV charging. It is also around, car washing and so on. So good contributions from this, will continue to grow....
Then on your chemical question, I would maybe want to go back to also what we disclosed in the capital market update. That hasn't changed. We think Kallo will contribute EBITDA after full ramp up of about EUR 200 million. And then on Borouge 4, we have said it's about $900 million. Yeah. That will be at full ramp up, however, right, so we see the Kallo PDH more towards the second half of this year. And we see Borouge 4 is a very big complex with 1.5 million tons of production.
And there is multiple plants involved, and you will see that we need to take those into operation, step by step in stages. The first stage, first plants will come on stream in the first quarter, but then you will see that throughout the rest of the year, ramping up. Your... So, and last, your question around the chemical segment. I, I do be- you, you-- I do believe, and you can see in the, in our sales volume growth, that we have, both in Europe, but also with Borouge and our joint ventures, you can see that there is underlying demand there. However, the challenge is, supply, demand, and unbalance. There's too much supply, new capacity that has come on stream.
But what we see now is increasingly old, not optimal plants being taken out of operation. In total, this is more than 20 million tons globally now. A big part of this is in Europe, significant part in South Korea, but it looks like there are some first actions now also in China on rationalization, with their innovation program that they have in China.
Thanks, Oleg, for your questions. We now come to Sadnan Ali from HSBC.
Hi there. Thanks for taking my question. Two, please. The first one on, just want to go back to Neptune Deep. I know you mentioned that the project's on track to deliver a startup in 2027. Just wanted to check if you can provide any more clarity on when in the year we can expect it to start up, and what are the key milestones we should expect between now and then? Do you see any risks to that timeline or any of those elements that would present more of a risk to delay, if there's a delay in the project? Secondly, just wanted to clarify your comments today said, I believe, that post BGI closing, you're expecting leverage in the low 20s by year-end.
Just wanna clarify, if I'm not mistaken, the prior communication was, I think, was it 22% after the deal closes? So does this now mean potentially that you expect something higher than 22 upon closing immediately, and that's a taper off by year-end? Thank you.
Let me maybe start with the Neptune project, and then, Reinhard will follow up on your second question. So, project progress, right? Just as a reminder to recall here, Neptune Deep consists of two fields. One is the Pelican Field, and the other one is the Domino Field. In the Pelican Field, which we, OMV Petrom, wanted to drill four wells. They have done so in 2025, and now, the Transocean Barents rig is moving on to the deep water wells in Domino Field, where it's six wells that have to be drilled.
Then, there's of course, not just the wells, but there's a lot of other activities that need to happen to bring this into production. One was the construction of natural gas metering station, which is making good progress, is going, and equipment is arriving there to the site. We have also finished a micro tunnel that is basically bringing then the underground pipeline connection to the onshore. We have also made good progress on the shallow water platform that is moving ahead on the construction and then has to be transported into the Black Sea later this year. Good progress on umbilicals, field support vessels, and so on.
So, all this is running, and so far we are on track, according to the plan. We have not finalized completely when in 2027 this startup will happen, but we will be able to do so in the course of the year....
Yes, and, Sadnan, thanks for your question on the leverage. I admit that it's courageous to predict a leverage on the single-digit percentage. I still stick to what we said, that after close we will be around 22%, and for the rest of the year, so if that happens in Q1, we still have Q2, Q3 and Q4.
We want to reaffirm by that statement that we stay in the low 20s%, which should be really an affirmation of our statement of a low leverage, including also the transaction of BGI.
Thank you, Sadnan, for your questions. There's a follow-up question from Oleg Galbur. Oleg, please go ahead with your follow-up.
Yes, thank you. Well, it's rather the question that I asked, but was not answered about Libya discovery, when do you expect it to turn into production?
Oleg, sorry that we overlooked this third question. First of all, Libya has been a successful discovery, and the beauty about this discovery is that it's only around 10 kilometers from existing infrastructure. This means that the tie-in of that should go rather fast, and we're expecting it the latest by next year.
Thank you very much.
Apologies, Oleg, for not taking the third question, but now we come to Ram Kamath from Barclays. Ram, please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Hi, thanks for the opportunity. I have a question on natural gas sales. So can you talk a little bit about what you are seeing in the gas business, on demand side particularly? Because I know that the sales in your West business in particularly was, I mean, has come down. I think possibly this year it's averaging or yeah around 40 terawatt hours, down from over 50. So how do you see shaping up here, particularly on, if you can talk about if it is particularly on the industrial sector demand, which is coming down? And of this volatile time, how do you see this business evolving or the demand evolving? Thank you.
Yeah, Ram, let me try and provide some insights into this. I think if you look further back a little bit, we... So, before the Russian attack on Ukraine, since then, we have seen significant decline in market demand, both in industrial areas, but also in household and other areas. I think this was driven by very high gas prices and so on. However, last year, there was in the markets some rebound into the gas usage. Probably also again, driven by a normalization of the gas prices, as we saw that last year.
What we have done in OMV, of course, is also that we have also commercially optimized our gas portfolio, diversified it into different sources, and this is probably what you are seeing from our sales figures there. However, looking out a little bit longer, we do see the demand signals now that Europe will remain a net importing gas region until 2050, at least. This is also the opportunity that we want to address with our Neptune Deep or some of our other gas production projects.
Okay. Thank you.
Thanks, Ram, for your questions. We now come to the end of our conference call and would like to thank you all for joining us today. Should you have any further questions, please contact the investor relations team. We will be happy to help you. Thank you again, and goodbye, and have a nice day.
Thank you very much. Have a good day.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
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