Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to OMV's Capital Markets Day. I'm Florian Greger, responsible for Investor Relations and S ustainability, and I'm pleased to spend the next few hours with you focusing on OMV's Strategy 2030. We will start today with a presentation by Alfred Stern, CEO and Executive Officer for Chemicals and Materials, who will first say a few words about the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and then take you through the details of our Strategy 2030. Our CFO, Reinhard Florey, will then present the financial framework of this strategy. Following these presentations, we will have approximately 90 minutes for Q&A. We will be joined by Elena Skvortsova, Executive Officer for Marketing and Trading, and Martijn van Koten, Executive Officer for Refining. Hans Pleininger, Deputy CEO and Executive Officer for Exploration and Production is unfortunately ill, but will join the Q&A session via telephone.
I will provide more details on how to ask questions at the end of the presentations. Before I hand over to Alfred, let me please direct you to our disclaimer language related to forward looking statements that may be included in today's presentations and that you currently see on the screen, and is also posted on our website. With that, I would like to turn it over to Alfred.
Thank you, Florian. Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, and welcome to OMV's Capital Markets Day. It is a difficult moment to present our new long-term strategy. We are saddened by the attack on Ukraine and extremely concerned about the developments. The war in Ukraine is a tragic and perilous situation that is causing great suffering for many, and that we view with the utmost consternation. Our deepest sympathies go out to all of the direct and indirect victims of Russia's military action. We call for the end of all hostilities. It is only in peace that there can be freedom and wellbeing. Before we get into the presentation of our Strategy 2030, let me spend a few minutes on our business in Russia, the recent developments, and how this is reflected in our business and planning.
We have operated in Russia since the end of 2017, when we acquired a share in the natural gas field, Yuzhno-Russkoye, and Russia becomes one of our core region. We have no operations in Russia outside of our E&P business. Average annual production was slightly below 100,000 barrels per day over the last three years, representing about 20% of our total E&P production and roughly one-third of our total natural gas production. However, the financial contribution on a group level was rather limited. E&P Russia accounted for approximately 3% of OMV's Clean CCS Operating Result over this period, and for about 2% of OMV Group's total operating cash flow, excluding net working capital effects. Cash was received in the form of an annual dividend.
In light of the latest developments, we have taken the decision that Russia will no longer be a core region, and we will not pursue any future investments in the country. We have ended all negotiations about the potential purchase of a stake in Blocks 4a, 5a of the Achimov Formation, and initiated a strategic review of our 24.99% interest in Yuzhno-Russkoye . This review comprises all options, including possibilities to divest or exit. As a consequence, we expect a non-cash value adjustment of EUR 500 million-EUR 800 million, impacting our reported operating result in the first quarter of the current financial year. In addition, we will recognize a value adjustment charge of just under EUR 1 billion related to the loan and accrued interests as of December 31, 2021 associated with Nord Stream 2.
This is a non-cash value adjustment that will impact reported earnings before taxes in the first quarter of the current financial year. The remaining assets in Russia account now for less than 2% of our total asset base. We continue to explore all options to preserve value in our investments in the market. Ladies and gentlemen, these decisions will neither impact our proposed dividend of EUR 2.30 per share for the fiscal year 2021 to be paid in June of this year, nor the ability to deliver on our progressive dividend policy in the long term. As part of our strategy, we are focusing on reducing oil and gas production over time, and particularly from Russia. We already anticipated production to drop to 80,000 boe/d by 2025, and to 40,000 boe/d by 2030.
At the same time, we take our responsibility to supply Europe and Austria with natural gas seriously. Households, institutions, and the industrial sector rely on dependable gas supplies, including gas from Russia, which is supplied under long-standing contracts. We are working to identify and develop additional sources of supply, and are working closely with the government on these initiatives. This business contributed on average less than 1% to our group Clean CCS Operating Result annually over the last three years. Let me now turn to our strategy and present to you how we intend to contribute to meeting the challenges posed by climate change. We believe that our strategy is now more relevant than ever, in particular in view of the terrible Ukraine crisis. We believe that it is our duty to accelerate reductions in emissions and Europe's dependency on fossil resources.
At the same time, we see the transition ahead of our industry as a business opportunity. Sustainability will become a key business growth and innovation driver, and that is why we are here today, to share with you how we want to competitively position ourselves for the future while contributing to a sustainable society. Today, we are providing an update on OMV's strategic ambitions for growth and performance targets out to 2030. I want to thank you very much for taking the time to be with us today, and I'm looking forward to discussing with you our future plans. Let's watch a short video in the beginning.
The world is at a tipping point. The way we use energy and resources needs to change from produce, consume, and dispose, to reduce, reuse, and recycle. We at OMV are listening and take our responsibility toward society and our planet very seriously. We are on a path of transformation to become a leading sustainable fuels, chemicals, and materials company, and we will shift investment to low emission projects. With a circular mindset and our technical know-how, we are reinventing the entire value chain. The OMV of the future will be a different one. We will reduce fossil production, focus on gas as a transition energy, and build up a low carbon business. We will produce and sell more sustainable fuels and feedstocks. We will grow our chemicals and materials business and aim to become a leader in circular economy.
Through our expertise, innovation, and ambition, we aim to become a circular resource company, and we are committed to our net zero emission targets. Together with our employees, our partners, and customers, we will pave the way towards more sustainable living for today's society and for generations to come.
Let me start by giving you an overview of the strategic context and our beliefs. Climate change is without any doubt one of the biggest challenges of our times. The world has already warmed by about 1 degree Celsius since the middle of the nineteenth century, and we can see the effects. Floods, more frequent heat waves and wildfires, melting glaciers, and rising sea levels. We as a society must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero by the middle of this century to have a chance of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. The energy sector is of course at the heart of the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas emission levels. Overall, demand for oil and gas is set to decline in the next t hree decades, with a reduction in oil demand beginning earlier and declining faster.
Natural gas has an important role in acting as a lower carbon bridge while the world switches from oil and coal to renewables. As the role of oil and gas diminishes, ensuring a secure and affordable supply of energy will remain a high priority on the global agenda. In order to achieve a greener and smarter mobility system, we need to shift to alternative and sustainable feedstocks. Biofuels demand in Europe is expected to almost double by the end of this decade due to stricter policies and consumer behavior. Driven by global population growth and increasing prosperity and living standards, the demand for chemicals and materials will continue to rise. High-performance plastics are essential for many products we use every day, such as computers, smartphones, and appliances. They make our cars and planes lighter and more energy efficient, and they save lives through airbags, helmets, and medical equipment.
Lightweight solutions are essential to modern, healthy living, but they are also key to delivering a low carbon economy, given their properties, strong, flexible, and most importantly, inexpensive to produce. However, the ways we dispose of plastics must change. Plastic thus becomes part of the solution, not the problem. To achieve that, we must shift away from a linear society with a mindset of consumerism and convenience. The concept of a linear economy was based on the principle produce, consume, dispose, and it assumed boundless and easily available raw materials. The circular economy, on the other hand, aims to reduce waste, reuse materials, and regenerate resources. In our circular economy efforts, we want to keep reusing carbon molecules, and we start with recycled plastics, renewable chemical feedstock, and sustainable fuels.
The linear mindset must move towards a circular economy, where the aim is to return collected waste through recycling into the production cycle as a valuable raw material. A shift to a more circular economy will cut resource use and, coupled with lowering emissions, can deliver a sustainable environment. We believe that successful businesses of the future will be the ones that deliver value with minimum resource usage and environmental impact. Therefore, the concept of circular economy is a key focus area of our strategy. As a leading olefin and fuels producer, we proactively drive the transition from a linear to a circular economy. This brings me to our vision, to transform OMV into a leading sustainable fuels, chemicals, and materials company by 2030, with a strong focus on delivering shareholder value.
A key driver of our strategy is our ambition to become a net-zero emissions company by 2050 for Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3. We will deliver it by building on our strength and seizing opportunities to position ourselves competitively in this transition. We will strengthen, expand, and diversify the chemicals and materials portfolio with a focus on specialty polyolefin solutions and a significantly enhanced position globally. As we will gradually move away from fossil fuels, we aim to ramp up and become a leading innovative European producer of sustainable fuels and feedstocks. It is our belief that the circular economy is crucial for a long-term sustainable chemical business, and thus a transformation is needed towards an economical commercial scale. We target to establish a global leadership position in circular economy solutions by leveraging our integrated technology platform and strong partnerships along the value chain.
On the traditional business side, we will reduce total fossil production and processing. Our gas share will be increased, and low carbon solutions will be developed. We will manage the natural decline in production and maintain the overweight on gas in the medium term to maximize the cash generation for the transition of the group. As we take this path, we aim to remain an attractive investment case for our shareholders. Our strategy is about growing cash flows and delivering higher returns underpinned by a disciplined financial framework. Sustainability is at the core of our strategy. Practically, this means that sustainability has become a business and innovation driver for us. Our target is to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 for Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3.
Before moving on to the levers of these emissions reductions, I would like to highlight that sustainability does not mean for us only lowering greenhouse gas emissions. We have an equal focus on health and safety, people, resources, and ethical business practices. Our 2030 goals are fully aligned with the 2030 sustainable development goals of the United Nations. Just to give you a few examples of our comprehensive list of sustainability targets, HSSE is critical for us, and we have a zero harm, no losses approach for our employees as well as for our contractors. We are committed to transition towards a climate neutral economy in a fair way for our employees and communities, addressing social and economic benefits, effects.
We aim to increase the proportion of women at management level and board level up to 30%. At least 1% of our net income will be spent on strategic social investments. We target to extend our sustainability evaluations to all our suppliers. To demonstrate our focus on a lower carbon footprint, sustainability targets have been integrated into the long-term incentive plans for our executive board members and senior management. Let me start with our path to net zero emissions in operations by 2050. We aim to reduce Scope 1 and 2 absolute emissions by 30% by 2030, 60% by 2040 compared to 2019, and to achieve net zero by 2050. We have a clear roadmap of how to achieve the greenhouse gas emissions reductions by 2030.
We will improve our portfolio, enhance operational efficiency, increase renewable energy purchases, and decrease refining fossil throughput. In addition, we will implement neutralization and offsetting measures such as CCS. To further reduce the emissions to 2040 and 2050, we invest in technology development and have today a strong pipeline, which I will explain to you a bit later. We aim to bring down our Scope 3 emissions by 20% by 2030. As an interim, we aim to reduce it by around 50% by 2040. By 2050, we target to be net zero. Similar to our efforts to reduce emissions in our operations, we will undergo portfolio changes, decrease fossil fuel sales, and increase the share of recycled and sustainable feedstocks.
All of these initiatives will be supported by neutralization measures. When talking about the carbon intensity of energy supplies, the amount of CO2 produced per unit of energy consumed across all three scopes, we are targeting a reduction of 20% by 2030, 50% by 2040, and to net zero by 2050. The biggest contribution for this target will come from increasing zero carbon energy sales while reducing the fossil fuel sales. We will significantly increase the sustainability and bio-based fuels in refining and marketing, while in exploration and production segment, we will supply geothermal heating, sell green gas, and produce PV electricity for our own operations. OMV is awaiting the publication of the Science Based Targets methodology for the oil and gas sector to evaluate its new targets against the SBT requirements with the ultimate ambition to get them approved by the Science Based Targets initiative.
We are not just concerned about CO2 emissions. We are also working to lower our methane emissions, and we are targeting a reduction in our methane intensity of our E&P business, which accounts for around 97% of total group methane emissions to 0.2% or lower by 2025, in line with international targets such as OGMP, and 0.1% or lower by 2030. Through our commitment to the World Bank initiative Zero Routine Flaring by 2030, we are committed to ending routine flaring and venting of associated gas from oil production by 2030, improving methane emissions measurement, and using advanced equipment to detect and repair methane leaks. We are working with industry and research institutions to improve detection and measurement technologies. We start this transformation from a position of strength. We have a leading safety performance with a global footprint.
Our products are sold in Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and the Americas. We are very innovative with excellent refinery operations and a proprietary polyolefin technology. We benefit from a proven track record of high cash flows and a strong balance sheet. Last but not least, we have very experienced employees. Leveraging on our position of strength and resilience, we have a head start to successfully secure our transformation and to reinvent essentials for sustainable living. Our financial strategy is to enhance shareholder value and returns while ensuring a strong balance sheet, along with a financially resilient portfolio that thrives in a low-carbon world and has attractive growth potential well into the future.
The value-driven finance strategy operates on a clear framework with financial targets and aims to achieve a Clean CCS Operating Result of at least EUR 6 billion by 2030 and an operating cash flow, excluding net working capital effects, of at least EUR 7 billion by 2030. In preparing our financial plan, we have set a sound capital allocation policy with clear priorities. First, we will invest in the organic portfolio. Second, we will reward our shareholders. Third, we will pursue inorganic spending for an accelerated transformation. Fourth, we will focus on deleveraging. In our capital allocation, we will focus on selecting the most competitive and resilient projects based on clearly defined investment criteria, including hurdle rates and payback periods specific to each business, reflecting respective risk and return profiles.
To achieve our strategic goals, we plan to invest on average about EUR 3.5 billion per year organically until 2030. Roughly 40% will go into low carbon projects over this period. This will enable us to realize a ROCE of at least 12% per year in the medium to long term. This disciplined approach supports our strong balance sheet as we aim to achieve a leverage ratio of below 30% for the mid and long term, as well as a strong investment credit rating. Of course, we will also consider portfolio measures which might lead to the leverage ratio temporarily exceeding 30%. However, this will then be followed by a deleveraging program to maintain our investment grade rating.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will continue to reward our shareholders through our progressive dividend policy with the clear aim to increase dividends every year. Now, I would like to lead you through our plans for each of the businesses. Let me start with chemicals and materials. The business will be the major growth engine of the group, with a portfolio of growth initiatives that will balance sustainability, risk and returns, and strengthen resilience against market dynamics. We aim to develop into a global leader in specialty polyolefin solutions. We want to expand our business in attractive markets with a particular focus on North America and Asia, and build a sustainable polyolefin production in Europe. We want to establish a leading position in renewable and circular economy solutions, representing up to 40% of our total polyolefin production in Europe.
Last but not least, we would like to diversify our portfolio by entering adjacent products and new product groups. That may sound very ambitious, but let me show you how we intend to achieve all these targets and why we are very well-positioned to succeed in this business. Demand for polyolefin products will continue to grow above global GDP, with a projected growth rate of 4.3% for virgin and recycled polyolefins until 2030. The majority of this demand growth stems from high growth markets in Asia, driven by urbanization, increasing population, and income in developing regions. Polyolefins play a critical role as eco-efficient enablers for a sustainable future in sectors such as mobility, healthcare, consumer goods, as well as infrastructure, building, and construction. For example, polyolefins enable lighter weight automotive solutions and packaging that reduces food waste and increases shelf life.
While demand for polyolefins will grow at a healthy rate, the feedstock used to produce these chemicals will change significantly. At nearly 12% per year, recycled polyolefins are projected to grow substantially above global GDP. This is driven by regulatory pressure, for instance, Europe's aim to recycle 55% of plastic packaging by 2030, as well as strong end market commitments, particularly in the consumer goods sector. A lot of the major brand owners made voluntary commitments in response to consumer preferences and legislation. We already have a strong position in chemicals and materials today. We're a global backward-integrated polyolefin producer. We have a base chemicals capacity of 7 million tons per year and around 6 million tons of polyolefins. We are among the top 10 polyolefin producers worldwide.
In our olefin production, we benefit from high cracker feedstock intake flexibility between naphtha, ethane, and propane, which allows for optimization and financial benefits. As I mentioned earlier, innovation is one of our core strengths. We have four innovation centers in Austria, in Sweden, in Finland, and in Abu Dhabi, focused on development of polymer technologies and new products and solutions. With around 10,000 patent applications successfully filed and patents granted. We believe we are one of the most innovative polyolefin companies. Our guiding principle is to reinvent for more sustainable living. Our proprietary polymer technology is a real competitive edge for us, and the core ingredient of our strategy in chemicals and materials. The cornerstone of Borstar is delivering innovative products through its efficient and flexible design. It can offer tailor-made products, sophisticated customer-oriented solutions, characterized by a unique property combination.
The technology offers better economics for customers due to the superior product properties, such as lighter, tougher, stronger, and faster processing materials which allow for material savings as well as lower energy consumption. Borstar has a leading circular economy performance. It can incorporate more than 50% post-consumer recycled materials in end applications. We are continuously working on the development of this technology. The latest, the third generation of Borstar, is already being used in Baystar in the U.S. The new developments represent a leap forward in process technology, allowing even more flexible polymer design and the development of an ever-widening range of new plastics that outperform alternative materials in meeting the needs of manufacturers and end users. Borstar allows us to have an industry-leading share of specialty applications. More than 40% of our polyolefin volumes are specialty products.
These are high performance products delivering margins more than twice as high as standard polyolefins and largely resilient to feedstock price movements. Let me illustrate the specialty character of our polyolefins with an example. Borealis is the clear number one globally in the highly attractive market for high voltage cable insulation. This is a demanding high-tech application where customers look for performance such as minimal voltage loss, decade-long durability and reliability, and are willing to pay for performance if the quality is right. You can imagine that repairing a subsea cable is very costly and must be avoided. The purity and performance of our Borstar polymers set us apart from competition and make us a global leader in that business. The following video will give you a better idea for the potential of this technology.
It is impossible to imagine modern life without high quality plastic. They are versatile, robust, reusable, lightweight, and safe. The demand and need for high quality plastic solutions is rising in all kinds of industry and especially for the energy transition. The shift from fossil-based energy to renewable energy requires a massive expansion of power grids, which are essential to security of supply. Borlink, a breakthrough technology by Borealis, plays a key role in this development. The special polyolefin solution for cable insulation enables the efficient transport of renewable energy over long distances with minimal losses, driving the green energy transition.
Through innovation and collaboration, our solutions are powering big projects, such as the German corridors transporting renewable energies from wind farms from the north to the south of Germany.
High quality solutions like these will accelerate the energy transition and enable the path towards a low carbon energy future.
Another example of specialty polymers are our polyolefin solutions for the automotive industry. The percentage of plastics used in the mobility industries has consistently increased over the years. Equivalent plastic components weigh up to 60% less than their metal counterparts. The weight advantage leads to significantly improved energy efficiency and the avoidance of carbon emissions. This is equally or even more important for electric cars to reduce energy consumption. Our proprietary technologies are lighter weight replacement solutions for conventional materials like metal, rubber, and engineering polymers. Some automotive applications can be made even more sustainable by combining post-consumer recycled and virgin plastic materials to produce high-end grades with consistent, reliable, and long-term performance. Through Borealis, we currently operate polypropylene compounding capacities for automotive in Europe, North America and South America, and China through Borouge.
We are working closely with leading global OEMs such as BMW, Daimler, VW, Volvo, and of course, others. We have a strong position, but growth is a priority for us. Chemicals have strong market fundamentals, high growth rates, different end industries exposure, and attractive returns, and we would like to build on that. Our strategy is mainly to grow in an integrated way, both in olefins and polyolefins. This has proven a very good hedge against market volatility and an enabler to be a reliable supplier. In Europe, we aim to expand our monomer position by 20% to around 4.8 million tons, mainly through the propane dehydrogenation plant in Kallo, Belgium, which is scheduled to come on stream in 2023. A lot of efforts will be focused on replacing virgin feedstocks with sustainable ones through projects such as ReOil.
In polymers, we aim to increase the capacity close to the monomer position through debottlenecking projects, growth in compounding, and mechanical recycling. In the Middle East and Asia, through our very successful partnership with Borouge, we just started up the fifth Borstar polypropylene plant, and we announced the final investment decision for Borouge 4. Borouge is the key vehicle that enables us to serve the growing customer needs across the Middle East and Asian markets with future-oriented and differentiated solutions based on Borealis' proprietary Borstar technology. The facility will consist of an ethane cracker producing 1.5 million tons of ethylene and two Borstar polyethylene plants producing in total 1.4 million tons of polyethylene per year. This expansion will see Borouge become the largest single location polyolefin complex in the world. Startup is expected late 2025.
In North America, we currently have expansion projects through our Baystar joint venture with TotalEnergies. We expect to see contributions from the 1 million ton ethane cracker and from the additional capacity of the new world scale Borstar polyethylene plant this year. The PE plant will enable us to supply our customers globally with specialty grades. At the same time, it will benefit from advantaged ethane feedstock. Globally, we will increase our monomer volumes by 35% and the polyolefin volumes by around 30% through these growth projects. Borouge has been a key partnership of Borealis with ADNOC. Since 2001, Borouge has grown tenfold, reaching a polymer capacity of 5 million tons per year, most of which is largely backward integrated into monomers. With Borouge 4, the capacity will increase to 6.4 million tons of polyolefins.
The impressive size of the site is also illustrated by the fact that Borouge alone is among the top 10 polyolefin producers worldwide. The joint venture successfully combines advantaged long-term feedstock contracts, economies of scale, a young asset base, the leading Borstar technology, and access to the Asian growth markets. Already today, 60% of its products are sold to Asia Pacific regions. The company is highly profitable and generated an average yearly EBITDA of $2.1 billion in the last three years, and a global industry-leading EBITDA margin of more than 40%. We see further interesting growth opportunities for us in addition to the strong pipeline of growth projects that we currently execute. We are well-positioned with enough financial headroom available to unlock growth and value creation through geographical expansion and portfolio diversification.
We aim to strengthen our North American footprint via organic and inorganic investments, capitalizing on our technology leadership position and innovation strength. The target is to build a strong end market presence in the global automotive industry and participate in the growth opportunities in circular economy. In Asia, we plan to grow in specialty polyolefins and circular solutions. In addition, we also aim to further expand our portfolio by tapping into adjacent pockets of value creation and developing a leadership position in differentiated specialty products, such as engineering plastics and other olefin-based products and intermediaries. Growth in this area will enable us to serve a broad range of attractive industries, such as automotive, comfort and insulation, textile, packaging, lubricants, and construction.
All our growth initiatives will be based on strict investment criteria that take into account the financial attractiveness of the project, the strategic fit with our portfolio, and the contribution to our sustainability goals, as well as synergies with existing businesses. OMV aims to become a leader in renewable and circular chemicals and materials. We're in a strong position in this market segment because we have been active in recycling for more than 10 years. Our proprietary circular economy technologies are a result of this activity. Already today, we are in the exceptional position that the majority of our chemical plants are ISCC PLUS certified, and that we already sell around 100,000 tons of polymers and chemicals that are based on recycled or renewable bio-based feedstock.
To reach our goal, we plan to capture emerging renewable and circular market potential by leveraging its integrated technology platform and end-to-end position to establish new products and novel business models. The aim is to deliver around 2 million tons per year of sustainable products by 2030 to reduce the carbon footprint of our products and meet OMV's emission targets. This will be accomplished by accelerating ongoing mechanical and chemical recycling initiatives in Europe, as well as by using biofeedstocks. The sustainable products will be the result of the increasing use of biofeedstocks for polyolefins and the product chemicals portfolio, leveraging the close integration with OMV's refining and marketing business. Building on its European sustainability leadership, chemicals and materials will utilize its global footprint to expand circular economy solutions globally with existing joint ventures, new growth platforms, and additional partnerships across Asian and North American assets.
Further potential for this strategic pillar and further emission reduction measures can be realized by additional investments, such as in biodegradable polymer production or green feedstock. The lion's share of our sustainable polyolefin production capacity will come from Europe. However, by the end of this decade, we will also have established a position in North America and Asia. We see substantial further growth opportunities between 2030, and we intend to seize. Turning the value chain from a linear to a circular model will be one of the key priorities for a sustainable chemicals business going forward. However, this requires a profound transformation to enable scale at attractive profitability. OMV is engaging in all steps of the circular economy value chain. In the area of technology, we have patented chemical recycling technology, as well as standard and advanced mechanical recycling technologies in cooperation with TOMRA and Zimmerman in Germany.
We benefit from a unique integration between chemical recycling, refinery, and petrochemical operations. We also have an integrated recycling concept with Renasci, especially for developing markets and mixed waste streams. Circular economy starts with design. We need to design products in such a way that it will allow them to be recycled at the end of their life cycle and will be able to achieve a high level of quality and performance in their second life. For this, we are actively working with value chain partners to replace multilayer structures with mono materials, and we already have various partnerships in place, such as with Nestlé, Henkel or others. Partnerships play a very important role for us, and we are very active in working with the upstream and downstream partners to accelerate the transition to a circular economy for plastics.
Access to feedstock is a key topic for a successful circular economy, and therefore, we have engaged early and started to build key partnerships in this area. For example, we have agreed to invest jointly with ALBA in a sorting plant in Germany. We also work together with Reclay for waste management. Let me now move on to refining and marketing. Going forward, we are reshaping our product portfolio, building on sustainable feedstocks and fuels, while maintaining strong profitability in refining. We plan to become a leading innovative producer of sustainable mobility fuels and chemical feedstocks in Europe. At the same time, we will proactively decrease fossil throughput in line with changing demand patterns. Finally, we will leverage and deepen the integration with the chemicals and materials segment. In marketing, we aim to grow the profitability and to further leverage existing market potential by significantly growing the non-fuel business sector.
In addition, we will expand into e-mobility, building a leading position in EV charging locations in our central European markets. The potential of the European market for the fossil refined products will decline significantly by 2030 as both volumes and refining margins are expected to come under pressure due to the pace of the energy transition in Europe. Over the same time period, there will be strong growth in renewable mobility fuels and sustainable chemical feedstocks. OMV will optimize the interface between oil and chemicals with a focus on the integrated Schwechat and Burghausen sites by redesigning plants to maximize high value fossil resources and the growing share of sustainable feedstocks for chemicals production. This will significantly reduce diesel production output by 2030, while increasing the chemical yields to around 24%.
The expected decrease in fossil road fuels production is around 30% compared to 2019. Refining will proactively decrease crude oil distillation throughput in the Schwechat and Burghausen refineries by around 2.6 million tons by 2030. To take advantage of the opportunities offered by the energy transition, we aim to increase the production of sustainable fuels and chemical feedstocks to a total of 1.5 million tons by 2030. OMV will continue to operate its three European refineries in Austria, Germany, and Romania as one integrated system to optimize asset utilization and maximize margins. In addition, the company is implementing measures to increase energy and operational efficiency at its existing refineries to maintain a leading cost position in Europe.
As I mentioned earlier, we plan to increase our production of sustainable fuels and chemical feedstock to 1.5 million tons per year by 2030. Almost half of this volume will be sustainable aviation fuels, the other half road transportation fuels and chemical feedstocks. In road biofuels, we will invest into the co-processing of first generation and advanced biofuels, in ethanol production and synthetic fuels. In sustainable aviation fuels, we will invest in new units as well as unit revamps in Romania, Austria, and Germany. In addition, we are planning to build a new plant in Belgium. In chemical feedstocks, we can take advantage of our high flexibility in blending HVO for sustainable aviation fuels or chemical feedstocks. We are also investing in a bio hydrocracker and will use synthetic fuels from CO2 as we do for road fuels.
Sourcing is critical for producing the sustainable fuels and feedstocks. We already have a clear sourcing plan for around 80% of our bio feedstock requirements in 2030. To ensure our competitive position in the industry and continue to innovate, we must focus our research and development efforts on new technologies for feedstock. I would like to give you some examples of the initiatives we are working on. Bio co-processing. Construction is underway and operation is expected in 2023. Waste fat and vegetable oil will be hydrogenated side by side with fossil diesel, producing up to 160,000 tons of biodiesel. Glycerin to propanol. We took a final investment decision for the pilot plant last year, and we expect to produce 1,000 tons of advanced propanol per year in 2023. MegaSyn.
OMV is industry partner in this project, a 1 MW high temperature co-electrolysis investment that would produce up to 450 tons per year of synthetic fuels and chemicals, as well as capture up to 1,500 tons of CO2 equivalents from the Schwechat refinery. The project would be the world's largest of its kind. Startup is expected in 2023. A 10 MW electrolysis plant. We took final investment decision last year. First production and deliveries of green hydrogen to mobility customers are anticipated for 2023. C2PAT project. OMV is part of a consortium with Lafarge, Verbund, and Borealis, establishing a cross-sectoral value chain to capture and utilize up to 700,000 tons of CO2 by 2030.
An initial demo plant project has been initiated to capture 10,000 tons of CO2 per annum and combine it with green hydrogen to transform it into renewable-based hydrocarbons. As you can see, we have a fantastic R&D pipeline that will enable us to transform our business beyond 2030 and achieve our greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Now I would like to share with you our plans for the OMV retail business. Our priorities are to become our customers' first choice for energy, mobility, and convenience, while focusing on premium and sustainable products. We intend to further develop the existing market potential by significantly expanding our non-fuel business. New gastronomy and service concepts as well as cooperation in the food logistics sector are expected to significantly increase the volume and margin of the non-fuel business by 2030.
In parallel, we will further grow the share of premium fuel over 30% by 2030 to differentiate ourselves from the competition and to significantly grow our margin. We expect profitability per station to be significantly higher in 2030 compared to 2019. One of the main strategic directions we are taking in retail is to expand into e-mobility by building a leading position in out-of-home electric vehicle charging locations, such as highway and transit refilling stations, as well as convenience hubs. We plan to take advantage of our position of strength and leverage OMV's already strong retail position and asset base in Central and Eastern Europe. By 2030, we will have more than 2,000 charging points at highway and transit filling stations and convenience hubs, and around 17,000 wall box charging points near offices.
In addition, we will be able to offer an international e-mobility card for EV fleets. With a total investment of more than EUR 400 million for e-mobility by 2030, OMV will increase the profitability of its retail business and secure the value of its assets. Our ambition is to become a regional leader in sustainable aviation fuels. We already took important steps in this direction by securing an early-mover position in the market with well-recognized potential. At our Schwechat refinery, we already produce some volumes of sustainable fuels through co-processing of Austrian used cooking oil in the fuel production process. This approach ensures the entire production chain is as regional as possible and keeps transportation routes to a minimum. Compared to conventional kerosene, sustainable aviation fuels reduce CO2 by more than 80% over the entire life cycle.
A key advantage of sustainable aviation fuels is that the existing infrastructure can be used for storage and refueling. We aim to grow sustainable aviation fuel sales volumes above 700,000 tons, significantly beyond the planned regulatory framework, and will target, among others, the growing voluntary compliance market. Our biggest customers, as of this day, are Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines. We work very closely with our customers, airlines and airports, and support them in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by offering more sustainable products. In the context of the ongoing energy transition and to support OMV Group's transformation, exploration and production will be managed as a robust cash generator and will focus on further upgrading its competitive asset portfolio. We will gradually reduce the fossil production by 2030, with a stronger decline in the following decades.
We will focus on growth projects in natural gas as an energy transition fuel. Starting this year, the gas sales and logistics business, excluding OMV Petrom, will be consolidated in exploration and production to extract synergies. At the same time, we will build a low-carbon business with significant investments into low-carbon solutions, such as geothermal energy and carbon capture and storage. Maintaining its profitability, the E&P business will act as a cash engine for the group and will support the transformation. By 2050, we will exit fossil production for energy use. Our oil and gas production will decline gradually in line with reduction of our investments. By 2025, we expect a production of around 450,000 barrels per day, which will further decrease to below 400,000 barrels per day until 2030.
Oil is expected to decline by 30% and natural gas by 15% by 2030. The decrease will come from natural decline as well as portfolio optimization measures. We will maintain the production cost below $7 per barrel throughout the period. We will no longer pursue new frontier oil greenfield developments, but we have attractive growth projects in natural gas in Romania, Malaysia, New Zealand, and the UAE. In order to maintain the above-mentioned production levels, we will continue to invest in the traditional business until 2026, with a clear focus on developing gas projects, such as Neptun Deep. Thereafter, investments in oil and gas production will drop substantially. At the same time, we expect the low carbon business investments to ramp up after 2024 to make a material contribution by the end of the decade.
Let's now look at our strategic direction to grow the natural gas share of total production. At the heart of this is the Neptun Deep asset in the Black Sea, a game-changing project for OMV Petrom and for Romania. OMV Petrom will be the operator of the block with Romgaz as a partner. We expect a final investment decision to be taken in 2023, with first gas in 2027. Of course, this depends on when the new offshore law in Romania will be finalized. The Black Sea gas remains a unique opportunity for Romania and for Europe to become less dependent on imports. We expect to invest up to EUR 2 billion in Neptun Deep and to add total estimated recoverable resources of about 50 billion cubic meters net to OMV.
Plateau production is estimated at about 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, again net to OMV, for an estimated period of about 10 years, and then enter natural decline. This gas volume represents a significant shift in our portfolio balance. While our oil and gas production will decline, we see excellent opportunities to build a successful low carbon business by 2030. Here we have identified two main areas, geothermal and carbon capture and storage, where we can leverage our existing asset base and core skills to deliver financially strong low carbon business projects. Geothermal will play a key role in supplying households with sustainable energy. We want to contribute to this and aim to build geothermal heat capacity generating up to 9 TWh per year by 2030. Now, a short video of how we will leverage our strength to deliver geothermal energy.
In order to reduce emissions, the world must focus on finding new sustainable energy solutions. OMV is committed to this path. While gas has an important role to play in securing the energy supply needed for the transition, we will further leverage our existing assets and capabilities to drive forward the energy transformation. One of the solutions is right beneath our feet, geothermal energy, an unlimited and clean energy source. It is available 24/7, regardless of weather, time of day, or season, making it an ideal addition to renewables like photovoltaics and wind power. It is one of the alternative solutions for meeting parts of society's energy demand, such as electricity and heating. With our outstanding know-how and long-standing expertise in the field of exploration and production, we will become a key player in geothermal energy.
OMV teams have been working with subsurface data over the years, handling all kinds of fluids and gases, and so have vast experience with most geothermal-related topics.
Leveraging existing assets and investing in low carbon geothermal energy plays a key role in OMV's strategy 2030, which seeks a transformation towards new and sustainable energy resources.
Beyond geothermal, we will further tap our existing reservoir and subsurface capabilities to develop a carbon capture and storage business. The target is to reach a CCS storage capacity of approximately 5 million tons of CO2 per year by 2030. We believe that we have a competitive advantage and are excellently positioned to expand in these attractive business areas. This is the result of our existing reservoirs and infrastructure, the strong market growth in Europe and potentially globally, high demand from industry decarbonization, as well as our experienced and skilled employees. In addition, a minimum of 1 TWh from renewable power will be developed in OMV's core regions with favorable sun and wind conditions to serve internal demand, reducing emissions of OMV's own operations.
Further opportunities where E&P can leverage its strength and capabilities are being explored, such as hydrogen and energy storage. In order to build the low carbon business, we plan to invest around EUR 5 billion until 2030. We expect this new business area to already generate an operating cash flow of around half a billion euros per year by the end of this decade. I would like to summarize our key strategic priorities that will ensure our successful transition. In the chemicals and materials segment, we aim to become a global leading supplier of specialty polyolefins, with a significantly strengthened position in Asia and North America. We will also expand the recycling business and diversify into new high-value chemicals and materials for long life applications. In refining, we aim to reconfigure the business in direction of renewable fuels and chemical feedstock production, with deeper chemicals integration.
For the retail business, we plan to provide mobility solutions by building a sustainable fuels business and growing through non-fuel business and e-mobility. Finally, in exploration and production, we will reduce fossil production while leveraging existing assets and capabilities to provide sustainable energy solutions. In a nutshell, our group's strategic goal is to build a sustainable growth business model with a focus on increasing the company's value and shareholder returns. Reinventing essentials for sustainable living will be our purpose. This brings me to the final slide of my presentation today. While Reinhard will provide you with more details on the financial aspects of the strategy, I would like to conclude by providing you with an outline of where the transformation strategy will take OMV by 2030 in terms of earnings and portfolio mix.
Following the business transformation, we expect our Clean CCS Operating Result to increase to at least EUR 6 billion by 2030. Chemicals and materials are expected to generate around half of the earnings, with exploration and production contributing around 30% and refining and marketing around 20%. This highlights that with sustainability as a driver for our business and innovation, we can significantly grow profits and transform to a net zero company. I hope that you are as excited about this opportunity as I am. With that, let me conclude with a video on the circular economy and how OMV will leverage this going forward, and then Reinhard Florey will take you through our financial framework.
We live in a world of finite resources, where many products are thrown away after a short life cycle. This is a waste of precious resources and a growing environmental problem. This needs to change. We need to take a different circular approach and use our valuable resources again and again. Circular economy is all about circulating products and materials, and thereby eliminating waste and pollution, decreasing carbon emissions, and keeping the carbon in the cycle, regenerating nature. We at OMV Group are transforming our business based on the principles of a circular economy. Our goal is clear. From linear to circular, from fossil to alternative feedstock, from emitting to recycling CO2, starting with efficient and smart product designs, to reusing products, all the way to recycling plastic waste into high-end products.
We want our materials to remain in a circular system, and thereby eliminating plastic waste and significantly reducing CO2 emissions. We can only get there with innovation and creative thinking, from product design all the way to different circular technologies.
Circular economy is essetial for a sustainable future and is at the heart of our strategy.
Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon and a warm welcome also from my side. In the next 30 minutes, I will guide you through the financial implications of OMV's Strategy 2030. Let me start by looking at where we stand today. You still remember our record results of 2021. I think what is even more relevant than this one record year is the quality and resilience of our performance over the full past 5 years. We have delivered very strong Clean CCS Operating Results at an average of EUR 3.6 billion per year. Our annual average operating cash generation of EUR 4.8 billion is rock solid and resilient. Our balance sheet, with a 5-year average gearing, excluding leases of 22%, is in a healthy state.
We have focused on ensuring that our shareholders participate in our success through our progressive dividend payments, which resulted in an average annual dividend increase of 9% and a very competitive annual shareholder return rate of 12.8% per year.
I can say with firm conviction that we are financially well-prepared for the transition ahead. If we have a look at our balance sheet development over the past years, we can demonstrate not only our financial stability, but also our great ability to deleverage quickly when our indebtedness reached a level above our threshold. Before I go into detail about our balance sheet structure, I need to update you about one housekeeping item. We are changing our main indebtedness metric from gearing, defined as net debt excluding leases, to leverage, defined as net debt including leases to capital employed. The main reason for this is to make it easier for you to compare our debt situation with that of our peers, most of whom also use this metric.
The acquisition of Borealis was the largest in OMV's history, and we made it at a very difficult time, namely, during the outbreak of a global virus pandemic. Nevertheless, we have proven that we can return to our target balance sheet structure within less than a year. This is just the most recent of several examples that testify our exceptional deleveraging speed and flexibility. It is primarily the result of our excellent free cash flow generation, further supported by divestment proceeds where required. Thanks to this development, we are now in the desirable position of being able to raise substantial funds for growth projects. It is our clear intention to maintain this flexibility in deleveraging by nurturing the key drivers, namely organic cash conversion and the ability to divest non-strategic assets. Of course, we will exert the utmost discipline when deciding upon new investment projects and spending plans.
Maintaining our investment-grade ratings is a key element of this endeavor. Alfred has already given you the summary of our financial targets, and later I will go a bit more into the details. Again, as a summary, based on our macroeconomic assumptions, we are striving to achieve a Clean CCS Operating Result of over EUR 6 billion and operating cash flow of over EUR 7 billion, both by 2030. Our capital allocation priorities comprise organic CapEx, our progressive dividend policy, inorganic growth, and deleveraging. Our organic CapEx will amount to around EUR 3.5 billion each year for the years until 2030. Of that, our intention is to spend at least 40% for low carbon projects as a yearly average until 2030. For each of our investment projects, we have defined clear investment criteria, including hurdle rates and payback periods, individually differentiated for our businesses.
I will come to that later in more detail. Our target return as defined by return on average capital employed is a minimum of 12% in the mid and the long term. Maintaining a solid balance sheet structure remains at the core of our activities. We have set ourselves the goal of keeping the leverage ratio at a maximum of 30%, along with the clear objective of maintaining our investment-grade credit ratings. We confirm our commitment to our progressive dividend policy, which is designed to express our appreciation for our shareholders. Looking now in more detail into our ambitious cash flow and earnings targets. We can see both steady but also short-term ambitious development. Comparing future targets with recent history is challenging because the last few years have been so exceptional in many respects.
While 2020 was clearly one of the most challenging years in our history, 2021 was certainly one of the best. We have therefore decided to provide you the average of the last three years for comparison. Compared to this average, our 2025 target of around EUR 6 billion of operating cash flow, excluding net working capital effects, is a 22% increase, and our 2030 target of at least EUR 7 billion for this metric represents a plus of 43%. The Clean CCS Operating Result targets that you see on the right-hand side of the slide also represent a very ambitious growth ambition compared to the previous three years' average of 35% for 2025 and of 62% for 2030. I have to be completely frank with you on one point.
The transition will not always be smooth, and it will undoubtedly require higher than usual investments for a limited period of time. Nevertheless, we are confident we can reach this goal because the business we are refocusing on, the chemicals business, is a highly profitable one, and circularity will prove its financial benefit as we scale up. We demonstrated last year that the Borealis acquisition created value from day one, and this is the principle that we want to adhere to for further expansion into the chemicals and low carbon space. We have the capability, and we have the know-how to turn quality assets into value. OMV will again emerge stronger from this transformation in the end. This also means that we want to rely only on initial investment periods for our traditional upstream and downstream fossil fuel business to cross-fund the development of low carbon activities.
We firmly believe that we can create the most value by ensuring that every business venture we engage in can stand on its own feet financially as quick as possible. One of the key financial benefits of moving further downstream in the hydrocarbons value chain is, in comparison to upstream, lower taxes on earnings. While tax rates in some upstream regimes can be between 70% and 90%, taxation on chemical production and low carbon solutions is only a fraction of that. In addition, the contribution from our chemicals joint ventures will also increase, thanks to the investment projects we are pursuing at Borouge or in Baystar. All in all, I think it is reasonable to expect that by 2030, half of our earnings will come from the new chemicals and materials segment, and a quarter each from Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing.
Of course, depending on commodity prices. We are confident that we can reach an earnings per share target range between 7 EUR-8 EUR a share by 2025, which would be an improvement by as much as 57% compared to the previous three years average. We think that it is realistic to assume that longer term, our new strategy will drive our earnings to an EPS range between 10 EUR-12 EUR a share by 2030, which would be more than double the average that we have reached in the last three years. While it is nice talking about these financial gains that we are aiming at, we mustn't forget that other than the earnings growth, the reason why we are embarking on this new strategy is to lower OMV's carbon footprint.
We are taking the goals of the low carbon measures outlined to you earlier very seriously. The executive board's remuneration guidelines are a manifestation of this. Our bonuses are measured not only by the financial success that we achieve, but also by how much we have been successful in turning OMV into a low emissions company. I now would like to guide you through our updated capital allocation priorities. As in our previous strategy, organic CapEx remains our number one priority when it comes to cash utilization. Second in line is now the progressive dividend policy in recognition of the support we receive from our shareholders. Inorganic spending takes the third rank. We see the option of rapidly growing our new core businesses via M&A as an opportunistic way to accelerate our transformation if conditions are right.
Last but not least, maintaining a solid balance sheet structure and a debt level that preserves our investment-grade ratings takes fourth place. However, depending on our leverage situation, the ranking of the inorganic growth and the deleveraging targets, so third and fourth place, can switch. When talking about our organic CapEx plan, there is one consideration that stands out among all the others. This is the creation of essential low carbon activities within OMV. We will not just establish these activities in one particular business or segment. All the areas in which we operate, be it exploration and production, refining, retail, or chemicals, will pursue their own low carbon goals and thus contribute to the overall transformation of our company.
It will, of course, take some time to ramp up these green operations, and this is what we are trying to illustrate here with the share of CapEx in the first and the second phase within the planning period. Over the entire period between 2022 and 2030, at least 40% of our organic CapEx spending is earmarked for low carbon projects. Within these low carbon investments, an increasing share will be eligible for the taxonomy of sustainable activities defined by the European Commission. When looking at how our planned organic low carbon CapEx share of 53% for the 2026-2030 period plays out for each segment, upstream accounts for 24% of the overall group organic CapEx number. As mentioned, the main initiatives in this context will be carbon capture and storage and geothermal.
We will also seek to cut emissions from operations by investing in renewable power generation for our own needs. The green organic CapEx share at refining and marketing is slated at 19% of group organic CapEx. We are aiming to raise the share of sustainable fuels and chemical feedstock, and we are looking at synthetic fuels and green hydrogen. In chemicals and materials, the share will be 10%, and here we are looking at sustainable polyolefins and circular economy, as described earlier. I would like to elaborate on the return and payback criteria that we apply to each investment project. There will be no exceptions to these standards. It is a first for us today that we are disclosing the different return thresholds for the different segments. What remains unchanged, however, is that overall minimum return for the group remains at 12% of average capital employed.
New and important to note is the difference in annotation requirements for liquids and for natural gas due to our firm ambition to phase out fossil hydrocarbon production. However, we will phase out liquids more quickly than natural gas. Now to our M&A ambitions. It is a stringent imperative that any acquisition we might consider must bring us closer to our strategic transformation goal, either lowering emissions or expanding our high-value chemicals exposure. It should leverage OMV's core competencies by finding new future-fit applications for them. Among other things, we are known to be one of the most efficient refinery operators, and we are known for our management of mature oil fields. We will no longer grow in these areas, but we will capitalize on the decades-long experience gathered from these activities. With Borealis, we are a world-class chemicals producer.
This is the area where we see the greatest potential to also grow inorganically while maximizing returns. We are convinced there are many new and additional areas of applications for our range of chemicals and materials that we can enter. The market position in new and existing geographies is also a key factor. On the financial side, the potential to realize synergies with existing and acquired operations and the associated growth potential are clearly the most important criteria. It is a given that the sectors in which we want to grow are coveted by many. Therefore, we can only justify an acquisition if we can make a very strong case for synergy returns, cost savings, and growth. We are a technological leader in many areas, not only when it comes to products, but also regarding internal processes.
For example, we are confident that we can leverage our outstanding capabilities in the area of digitization to extract maximum synergy potential from any acquisition. Another important aspect is cash resilience. Since the well-known advantage of traditional upstream, downstream integration is being eroded by growing emission concerns, we need to find other integrated ways to protect our cash flows from the volatile market environment. Our approach to solving this problem is to engage in high-end as well as sustainable chemicals that the market needs, regardless of the prevailing oil price level and integrated value chain with refineries in both directions. Let me now turn to the sources and uses balance of our new strategy. We want to illustrate here how much headroom we would have available given our cash flow expectation from now until 2030.
This headroom is significant, so we can use it both for increasing the dividend and growing inorganically if opportunities arise. This means that the amount of dividend we will pay is not directly limited by the indebtedness in the respective year. We have shown in the past that we can raise the dividend even if our leverage exceeds the prescribed threshold. We would like to keep this option open in the future. What we have not shown in this graphic is the additional earnings potential arising from the synergies that we intend to leverage and the proceeds from the divestments of non-strategic assets. We see the headroom indicated in the chart as the minimum we can enhance with proceeds from disposals and cost savings potentials from the synergies. Talking about synergies, I would like to cite as an example our recent acquisition of a majority of Borealis.
This was the largest transaction in our corporate history. Already in the first year of full consolidation, the synergies surpassed EUR 200 million. We are confident that total synergies will exceed EUR 800 million by 2025. We would like to use this example as a guideline how to realize synergies following future acquisitions. We take a pragmatic approach to defining our core assets. They must create value, and they must make money. If some of them do not meet the defined criteria in one or both dimensions, we will fix or sell them. To give you an idea of what I mean by this, I have listed some of the key requirements that an asset that we classify as core must meet. We see divestments primarily as a way of streamlining our business to help us focus on what we do best, our core activities.
Of course, divestments have a welcome side effect, namely the divestment proceeds. Using them to reduce a potential debt overhang is useful of course, but certainly not the most important consideration. Given our strong deleveraging abilities, which I described earlier, we are in the advantageous position of using divestments as a refocusing rather than a funding tool. I would now like to talk a little bit about our new funding policy that we are introducing. We would ultimately like to link our funding instruments to the achievement of certain low carbon targets, whether in relation to our sustainability strategy or our greenhouse gas emission goals. We have already taken a first step towards green financing with a loan for the ReOil pilot plant, but we will implement this framework on a larger scale as the financing need arises for OMV.
We will adhere to clearly outlined performance targets and indicators, and we will seek second-party opinion to ensure full transparency for our investors and to what extent the targets are being met. For us, this is just another way to support OMV's transition into a low-carbon company. We need to ensure that the sustainability objectives we have set are relevant to all aspects of our operations, including our approach to group financing. This holistic approach that we pursue at OMV to reduce the impact of our operations on the environment has been recognized by the most important rating agencies. I think we can be proud to count ourselves among the leading oil and gas companies when it comes to ESG ratings. I now come to the last, and in many respects, most important part of my remarks, namely our dividend policy.
What I can report to you here is that we confirm our long-term co-commitment to our shareholders. Therefore, our dividend policy remains unchanged. OMV continues to aim to increase the dividend every year, or at least maintain the level of the respective previous year. You can see this long-term commitment paid off. Compound average growth rate of 15% since 2015 is definitely something to be proud of. It is the result of a culmination of everything we stand for in, at OMV, strong cash generation, a solid balance sheet, and a sound growth perspective. This brings me to the last slide of my presentation today. As discussed, we are well aware that keeping a firm stand and our high ethical standards in the current crisis caused by Russian aggression will put a burden on our balance sheet and a limited number of our assets.
We have announced the estimated magnitudes of these value adjustments and are proud to be in the position where we can digest those impacts without significantly weakening OMV's financial position. This allows us to continue, without hesitation and in trust of our financial strength, with our ambitious and future-oriented strategy 2030. In a nutshell, those are my messages to you. Our transition towards chemicals and low-carbon business will increase cash flow on profitability, and it will improve the quality of our earnings. We consider our move towards chemicals and low-carbon businesses as the perfect combination to reduce our carbon footprint while remaining a highly profitable company generating attractive returns for its shareholders.
We see acquisitions as a turbo boost option that can bring us closer to this goal, but we will not make them at any price, and only if potential synergies and the expected growth potential make sense. Therefore, we have defined a new capital allocation framework that directs us to focus on our strategy in our investments. We consider divestment not as an emergency funding tool, but a way to better concentrate on what we are best at. Finally, we are sticking to our progressive dividend policy, which offers significant benefits to our shareholders in the future. OMV is preparing for the future already now, and we will emerge stronger from the transformation. Our carbon footprint will be significantly reduced, and the portfolio will contain more growth options and generate higher but less volatile earnings and cash flows. This is our understanding of creating shareholder value.
With that, I would like to thank you for your attention, and I hand the floor back to Florian.
Thank you, Reinhard and Alfred. This concludes the formal part, and we will now move to the Q&A session. In order to ask a question, you will need to leave the live-streamed webcast and join the Zoom link that was sent to you. Only participants that are connected via the Zoom link will be able to ask questions. Once in the Zoom meeting, you will be able to queue for a question. In the interest of time, I would ask you to limit yourself to two questions so that as many participants as possible are able to ask questions. If you have further questions or a follow-up, you are able to rejoin the queue. I would also ask that you turn your camera on if possible when asking your question. If you do not want to ask a question, you can remain in the live webcast.
We will now have a five-minute break to allow participants to switch to Zoom and to set up the Q&A session. Look forward to seeing you again in about five minutes.
Great. We are now all back and very much are looking forward to your questions. The first question comes from Mehdi Ennebati at Bank of America. Please go ahead, Mehdi.
Hi, good afternoon all. Can you hear me?
Yes.
I imagine so. Yeah, I will ask two questions, please. The first one on the shareholder remuneration. Let me put things into context. If I look at, you know, the previous year, you generally distributed on average, you know, 10% of your CFFO to OMV shareholders. Now, it is roughly 10 percentage points below peers, below your peers in Europe. I truly understand that you don't want to be committed, you know, to a dividend framework for the next five years, but do you intend to close the gap with your peers, meaning that you would intend to distribute roughly 20% of your CFFO in a five-year time, for example?
This would be a commitment in terms of absolute dividend payments. At least, you know, it could show your investors that you are trying to catch up with your peers, because the gap, you know, has been increasing quite significantly between your shareholder remuneration yield and the one proposed by your peers. I would like to hear what you have to say about that. The second question is on your Russian assets. You recently said Russia is not core anymore. But did you talk with Gazprom about the cash that you would receive from Yuzhno-Russkoye if operations continue at Yuzhno-Russkoye ? Does Gazprom intend to pay you? In which currency will they pay you?
Is it easy for them, you know, to pay you given that some Russian banks are not part of the SWIFT network anymore? Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you, Mehdi. Maybe let me start with the Russia question first, and then maybe Reinhard can give some insights on the dividend question that you had. On the Russia, it's indeed correct, what we announced is that Russia is no longer a core region for us. That means we will not pursue any further investments and that we are actually looking at all options concerning our 24.99% share interest in Yuzhno-Russkoye, and that can go as far as options to exit or divest. Now, the situation is of course such that there is a very dynamic situation in terms of legislation also from the Russian side that is constraining some dividend payments.
At this moment, we would have about EUR 200 million of cash that is trapped in Russia from this. How this will go further exactly, we don't know at this point. For the dividend question, maybe Reinhard can help me out here.
Sure, Alfred. Mehdi, thanks for that question. I think, regarding the shareholder return, it is important to say that we are not limiting ourselves. I think this should be the clear message. You have seen that we have raised the dividend that we'll pay for 2021 from a level of EUR 185 to EUR 230. This means this is the highest increment ever that we have done. Of course, also in response to a very good year, 2021. This means we are still recognizing exactly the fact that there are some different policies or some different behaviors in dividends with some of our peers. On the other hand, I think the promise that we are giving is one of the most predictable and reliable in this industry.
Therefore, I think you can count on the fact that we will continue with increasing this dividend. This may lead to closing the gap or even overachieving that. We don't want to limit ourselves to that. I think it is important to understand that we are proposing here a transformational strategy. This transformational strategy will not impact that we are still adhering, really committed to our dividend strategy. I think this is the main important message here.
Excuse me, if I may. Do you want, you know, to have a competitive dividend with your peers or no? Or shareholder remuneration with your peers or no?
We want to be one of the most competitive companies as such, and therefore also let our shareholders contribute on that. I think there is no absolute comparison that we will undergo in that respect. Of course, we will see in the dialogue with all our shareholders, what is the most important thing to do. Yes, of course, we want to be competitive, and of course, we want to be as one of the best recognized companies. This is also in the way how we develop our strategy, how we develop our carbon footprint. This is very much important, and I know that this is also appreciated by the shareholders.
Thank you very much both of you.
Thanks, Mehdi. We now come to Raphaël Dubois, Société Générale. Please, Raphaël, go ahead.
Great. Can you hear me well?
Yes.
Excellent. First, let me thank you for all the information you are giving us today. My first question is about the oil and gas upstream path to 2050. You specifically mention getting to zero for energy use. Can you say what will still exist in terms of oil and gas production at OMV in 2050? That's my first question. Or what sort of production, I mean. On the transformation of the E&P business, geothermal, CCS. Geothermal comes totally out of the blue, at least for me. Can you maybe try and be a bit more specific where exactly you want to implement this capacity? 9 TWh is huge in the scale of geothermal. How is the business going to be generating earnings for you?
Is it dependent on subsidies? Do you think you can get guaranteed prices for the terawatt hours? That will be great if you could give us some explanations. On CCS, where exactly should we expect you to build those businesses? Because I thought it was not permitted in Austria to build CCS. It would be great if you could give us a bit more insights. Thank you.
Thank you, Raphaël. You are absolutely correct. CCS is not an option in Austria, but of course we are not a. We are an Austrian company, but we are not confined in our operations to the totality of Austria. Let me maybe try and answer your oil and gas question up until 2050, and then maybe Johann Pleininger can help me out on the geothermal and CCS to fill you in on some more detail. So what we are planning to do is, by 2050, we want to be a net zero company, and we do understand that burning fossil fuels and fossil energy sources is not compatible with being a net zero company.
However, it could be possible that oil is still a valuable resource in other products such as chemicals or plastics or other things. 2050, of course, is a long way out, and many things can develop. But what we are saying here in the strategy, we will no longer produce oil and gas that would go into energy use, so that will be burned into CO2. But we do not exclude at this point yet, maybe a production for other use, for permanent use, like in chemicals or in materials. On the second part of your question, let's see if we can get Hans on the line here, and if he can answer your question around geothermal and CCS.
Hi, Raphaël. I'm participating from home because I'm affected by COVID. So sorry for that, but I hope that you can hear me well, that we have.
Very well.
I have a stable line. If you can hear me well, that's great. I would like to refer to your first question, geothermal. We have been looking into the topic for quite a while. We have set up a dedicated team. We are looking into it, especially in Austria, but Europe, but also on a global basis. We have one concrete project already in the pipeline, but it's early. It's too early to announce what it is because we have agreed on confidentiality with our partner. Just to give you a feeling about the size of what we're talking about, we are talking about geothermal projects in the size which could deliver 1-2 terawatt-hours per year.
If we are targeting after full implementation, and once we are targeting 8-9 terawatt-hours, if we can manage couple of this kind of projects, then we would be already until 2030. What you can expect is that we need to invest in the upcoming years, and operating cash flow would rather come at the end of the decade. That's regarding CCS. It's similar. Also here, we have looked into it in several regions, several countries, especially Norway, Romania, but also Southeast Asia. Also here, a dedicated team is working on it. As I said, we're looking for these opportunities because it's close to our business where we can use our topside experience, but also maybe our depleted reservoir in the one or the other area.
It's still too early to announce a concrete project here. It's the same regarding earnings, operating cash flow. You can also rather expect at the end of the decade because investments have to come first.
Thank you.
Thanks a lot, Raphaël. We now come to Sasikanth Chilukuru, Morgan Stanley. Sasi, please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I had two, please. The first was related to sustainable polyolefins. Can you provide more color on the difference in expected margins between sustainable polyolefins and regular polyolefins? I was just wondering, as you ramp up production in sustainable polyolefins, how do you see the margin profile for this segment evolving? You've already highlighted sales of around 100 KT of sustainable polymers. Can you comment on the margins that you've gotten for these products? The second one was related to acquisitions. You have provided a very detailed list of strategic and financial criteria for any potential acquisitions.
Taking this into account, would it be fair if I were to think that this eliminates the possibility of OMV acquiring the remaining 25% stake in Borealis? Thanks.
Okay. Thank you, Sasi. Let me try and answer your questions here. I'll start with the sustainable polyolefins, and maybe the best way to start with this is to maybe talk a little bit about what we consider in those products in total, right? So, number one, we do not constrain it to the polyolefins only, but sustainable products, which could mean also chemicals like base chemicals or intermediates that are based on some sustainable feedstock. When we say sustainable, we have maybe three things in mind. We are looking at mechanical recycling, chemical recycling, and then renewable feedstock currently on bio basis. A little bit longer out could be on synthetic basis.
Now, in the 100 kilotons that we have today, I think we are one of the few, if not the only company where you can actually call up and order both polymers and chemicals that are based on mechanical recycling, on chemical recycling or on renewable feedstock, and sell those. The experience in those, and what we are expecting in the next couple of years, is that the demand will go up significantly and supply will be lagging as we go forward. In particular, when it's about higher quality type of products. You can see with all the brand owners, you can see a big drive in order to go into more sustainable packaging, more sustainable type of materials that they want to use there.
We also see the regulatory framework ramping up. In the EU, they're expecting 55% recycled consumer packaging by 2030. This will, of course, create and stimulate demand that we want to take advantage because in our view, we are further ahead of the competition in both technology, in operating those things, but also in the necessary partnerships that we need to do. On the current business, we see depending on the quality levels, a willingness of customers to pay some premiums if you can make a high quality material available. On your acquisition targets, you are absolutely correct. We have put a good CapEx framework into place with the right criteria and everything.
What I've also shown there is that we have a significant organic growth program ahead of us in chemicals and materials, that some of it is coming to an end this year. Looking further out, we are also considering inorganic options. It's including both organic and inorganic options to further grow our business and to accelerate the transformation to become a sustainable fuels, chemicals and materials company. If we find something that is faster, we are in a good position that we are not in a hurry. We don't have to do something, but of course, we will remain open to any kind of value accretive opportunities that we will find.
Great. Thank you.
Alfred, maybe just to add to that, to be very clear, Sasi, there is nothing to talk about at the moment about this 25%. However, it is important that we see that, the interpretation of our criteria is right. Yeah. It is about accretiveness on the earnings per share. It is about the results after minorities, and therefore, there is no doubt that such a step also could be accretive. The fact that we are fully consolidating does not at all exclude that this could be an accretive step.
Thank you.
Thanks, Sasi. We now come to Josh Stone, Barclays.
Thanks. Thanks, Florian, and good afternoon. Two questions, please. First of all, just come back to the dividend policy. You made a reference in the press release that it, the decision to leave it unchanged, in part reflected the war in Ukraine. Does that mean you were maybe considering changing your policy if Russia didn't invade Ukraine? And what would it have gone to, if not? And related to that, given the size of the potential dividend now, you know, might you consider moving that to an interim dividend at some point? Second question on refining. The refining throughput reduction is quite a noticeable change in the strategy. I notice, though, you're not guiding to lower throughput or lower capacity at Petrobrazi refinery. What's the plan for that asset?
Where does ADNOC Refining sit within that strategy? Thank you.
Yeah, thanks, Josh . Maybe Martijn van Koten can start with the refining question.
Yeah.
Reinhard can answer the dividend one.
Yeah. Very happy to do that, Sigi. Thank you, Josh, for the question. For Schwechat and Burghausen refineries, these are integrated with petrochemicals. Really optimize those with an integrated LP. Looking at all the fuels, products and also the petrochemicals products. We see their very good competitiveness and margins also out later this decade. We do expect that the overall demand for diesel gasoline will just follow the trend that it has been following for the last 10 years. Continue to decline, and we'll be using that opportunity also then to more and more channel to chemicals. That's where you see the percentage chemicals output increase. We also plan then to capitalize on the circular feedstock opportunities that we see and on the renewable feedstock opportunities.
Like Alfred just explained, we see actually very good pockets of premiums being paid, both on fuels as well as on chemicals. That's for those two refineries, the strategy. That then results in this increase in renewable products and decrease in crude throughput. Of course, it also really helps with the Scope 3. For Petrobrazi, it's a different story there. We see very healthy demand growth still in those OMV Petrom markets. And therefore, that refinery is projected to be running full. You can see that in the chart as well. That doesn't mean that there's not a contribution there also for the renewable feedstock and fuel strategy. Partly we think there also there will be an emerging market for those products.
We'll leverage further the opportunity also bring then renewable feedstock into the Central Europe envelope. We're already doing that also with propylene. We see there also opportunity to grow that with renewable propylene, for instance. Alfred mentioned that we're optimizing those three refineries as one integrated system, which is key to the competitiveness also out to 2030.
Josh, to your question regarding the dividend situation. I think, first of all, let's not speculate. The Ukrainian situation is a reality. If we're coming up with a strategy, that should also be based on the current realities that we have. However, when it comes to extraordinary dividend payments, we have not and never excluded anything, and we have not and never promised anything. That means that we stick to what we say, and we mean that very serious. That does not mean that things cannot change at some point of time.
The only thing that I have to put as a caveat is that share buyback programs are difficult for OMV simply because of the situation with the Austrian legislation situation and the share that we have with our friends from Mubadala, which are already at the threshold of what is possible in Austria. Therefore, any kind of dilution through share buyback programs would be a problem.
Thanks, Reinhard. Just on the interim dividend, the potential of maybe doing that.
Josh, can you say again?
Just on the idea that maybe you could look at doing an interim dividend, whether that would be something possible in the future.
I said we have not excluded anything, and we have not promised anything.
Okay. Thank you.
Thanks, Josh. The next questions come from Henri Patricot, UBS.
Yes, thank you. Hello, everyone. Two questions, please. The first one, following up again on the dividend. I mean, you have a slide showing the 15% CAGR over the last few years. Is this a good indication of what we can expect in the next few years? Or could it be even faster than this in a favorable macro environment, and one in which you have quite a few growth projects starting up quite soon? Secondly, around Yuzhno-Russkoye and the ENP production target that the project is still in there. So what would happen if you were to sell, exit Russia, and this asset?
Would you just, you lose the 85 million per day in 2025, or would you look to replace that production, should you exit?
Yeah, maybe let's start with the dividend, and maybe Reinhard can answer this again, and then we'll ask Hans on the Yuzhno production.
Thank you, Henri, for the question regarding the 50%-15%. Of course, you can take that as an indication, but this is not a limit. We are not limiting ourselves, and I think this is important. We have always used the term of a progressive dividend as the opportunity also to adjust when we have a possibility to deliver more and to adjust when there is a situation where the circumstances are being difficult. We have never reduced the dividend, and I think this is important, and this is not true for many of our peers. Therefore, I think this is reliable, this is trustful, and therefore no limits from our side. If you want to take it as an indication, I would not contradict.
Okay. I would take the second question regarding Yuzhno-Russkoye . Yuzhno-Russkoye is targeted to 200,000 boe per day. In 2025, we expect 80,000, and then until 2030, 40,000. The forecast Alfred has given in his slides, which is saying production from the current level will be reduced until 2025 to 450,000 and to below 400,000 until 2030, does not include any exit from Yuzhno Russkoye. For the time being, we have no concrete plan to replace
If we will exit or if we could exit Yuzhno, how to replace it. There are no concrete plans so far.
Thanks, Henri. The next questions come from Henry Tarr, Berenberg. Please go ahead, Henry.
Thank you. Thanks for taking my question. Two questions really. One, firstly on Neptune Deep. What's the likely timing here? I know you're perhaps reliant on other regulations, but how do you see that playing out? Is there potential for that to be disrupted with what's currently going on in the Ukraine as well? And then secondly, to get to the EUR 6 billion EBIT figure for 2030, I may have missed it, apologies, but what were the underlying assumptions on chem's margins, commodity prices, et cetera, to get to that baseline? Thank you.
Okay. Let me maybe start on the Neptune Deep, Henry. Thank you for the question. The Neptune Deep project will basically depend. Our time plan for that is currently we believe that next year, 2023, we can take a final investment decision, and then it will take about four years before we can come to production. This final investment decision is dependent on two things. First, on Romgaz concluding on their deal with ExxonMobil. The second piece, in Romania, the offshore law being approved by the government there. These two things need to happen.
They are neither of them in our control, but we believe the time plan should be possible to get to a final investment decision by 2023. The disruption potential I don't want to speculate on. I just want to maybe offer you an alternative perspective to that, because Neptune Deep, of course, is also a fantastic opportunity for Romania and parts of Europe to become more independent of gas imports. From that, the interest could also have gone up just recently from this. We don't have any information that I could give you. Everything else would be speculation.
Maybe on the assumptions, maybe Reinhard, you can explain what underlying assumptions we had in order to come up with the strategy numbers.
Sure. Henry, there is an appendix to my presentation, but I can easily give you the numbers. We have an assumption of a Brent oil price in 2030 of $70 per BOE. In 2025, it would be 65. That is, from our point of view, a realistic situation. Of course, you can, from today's point of view, see that as a little bit conservative, but this is the underlying Brent price. In terms of the European hub gas prices in 2030, we have 24 EUR per MWh in there. We have a refining indicator margin of $4.3 per barrel, and we have polyethylene, polypropylene indicator margins in Europe of around 480 EUR per ton. Ethylene margins are around 500 EUR per ton.
I hope this helps.
Good. Thanks, Henry. The next questions come from Peter Low, Redburn. Hi, Peter.
Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess the first one is perhaps slightly a follow-up on that assumption question from Henry. Your 2030 targets, the EBIT and cash flow, are at the same level as what you just reported in 2021, despite increasing CapEx over the next decade. I think you've suggested this is because 2021 was a particularly strong year. Can you perhaps comment which areas you think were particularly strong last year, and where you're assuming margins or prices will normalize at lower levels in the coming years and across the plan period? Then the second question was just a very quick clarification. You've talked about a bit about inorganic growth.
Can I just confirm, are the financial targets for 2030 based on organic investment only, or is there something in there assumed for acquisitions? Thanks.
On your first question, Peter, if you take the cash flows, the comparison to 2021, of course, comes with quite some different, I would say, economic environment to what we see as a mid of the cycle environment for 2030. Where we think 2021 was particularly strong, of course, was in polyolefin margins, which were clearly above what we have assumed now for 2030. We also had a very strong retail business. We also had a strong energy business, specifically in our eastern operations in Romania, due to the specific local situation, but also the increasing energy prices at that point of time.
Of course, it was in 2021 only the rise, but already quite significant in the later half of the year with increasing commodity prices. Which then in total had, of course, also a impact on a quite good over the year tax rate, and this is also what we have to compare.
I think the second question was around the 2030. Does organic, inorganic.
Yeah. Sure. In 2030, if you look at the results and the cash flow that we have seen, of course, there is the possibility of an inorganic growth to a certain degree in there, because we cannot give you an exact number of what we plan and when we plan that. Because as I explained in my presentation, we see the inorganic as an add-on that is opportunistic, and we do not want to commit ourselves to a certain year or a certain region or something like that, because we feel that there is plenty of opportunities out in the market. I have to say, there is a little bit of an anticipation that there will be some inorganic growth over that time in the numbers of 2030 in there.
However, this is not something where we have done a specific analysis to say, "Okay, we'll do it exactly that way," because that would then imply business to say we are with certain targets that we need to achieve. No, we want really to make sure that inorganic growth always takes the best of what we can get at a certain point of time.
Thank you.
Thanks, Peter. We now come to Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.
Yeah. Thanks, Jens, for taking the questions. Two, if I could please. First, I just wanted to follow up on the last point that you were just discussing on effectively further exploring the role of M&A in strategy. I mean, clearly, you're embedding it into the strategic view for the decade, particularly through diversifying and growing the chemicals business. Can you clarify firstly, both from the perspective of the 2025 targets, if there's anything, as well as 2030, the extent to which you're embedding a contribution from inorganics into those cash flow and EPS numbers that you're presenting? And then secondly, how effectively the ammunition for M&A prospectively over the coming years influences from a capital allocation perspective, how you're thinking about the dividend and to the extent that that potentially is.
It seems to me as sort of plays a bigger role than the uncertainty around Russia at this point. Then secondly, circular economy and the returns proposition. Then clearly circular economy, very central part of the decarbonization journey that you've outlined for OMV. Can you sort of perhaps disaggregate some of the key returns drivers through these projects and share a sense of net net, the extent to which you see circular economy as accretive or dilutive within the sort of the average 12%+ return target into 2030?
Matt, can you speak up a little bit? I think it was difficult to understand the last part of.
Yeah. No, I think-
What's accretive to 12% out of the circular economy?
I'm not sure. We think we got your questions. I'm not sure we got the entire question. The second part of the circular economy question, right? I think what you were asking is around what are the profitability drivers of that circular economy piece. Your second question was role of M&A in the strategy and influence on the dividend, right? I'll talk a little bit about the first two, and then number three, maybe on the dividend, Reinhard can talk or add if he wants to add something to what I have to say.
Circular economy solutions, today we have announced to build a chemical recycling plant here in Austria, which is a demonstration plant. That's an intermediary step in order to come to a full-scale plant by 2026. That scale is certainly a driver in order to get to a profitability level that we are targeting and that we can get that we are looking at. That's one to further develop the technology to develop the right scale. When I talk about the scale, it's really necessary to adopt that to the different types of technologies that we have there. The second piece of influence that you have is feedstock cost.
How do you get access to the right feedstock and what type of feedstock do you need in order to get to the right profitability level? The third piece that I would like to mention in that context is we believe that we have in OMV here an advantage because of our integrated mechanical, chemical recycling, refining and polyolefin production. With that integration, we can manage flows of different qualities better than others, which we believe is a profitability driver for us. The last point that I would want to mention there is of course pricing that we can see today customers being willing to pay price premiums on the right quality levels and we will of course also explore that.
Now, the second question about the role of M&A in the chemical and materials growth strategy. What we are planning to do there is in chemicals and materials to have both a growth through organic projects as I've outlined, for example, the Baystar project, the Borouge 4 project, the PDH project in Belgium. To try and accelerate at the same time the move with opportunistic M&A where this makes sense, where we can either accelerate our transformation or where we can broaden our product portfolio.
As Reinhard was pointing out, we have not set ourselves firm time targets when we want to do those, but rather want to go about this when the right opportunities become available and when we can make those happen. Regarding the dividend policy and the influence on this, I would like to just remind on our capital allocation framework, where we are saying, first we will invest into our running operations to make sure they are safe and reliable. The second priority is returning shareholder value to the shareholders in the form of a progressive dividend policy. Only as number three, we are putting the inorganic growth. As number four, we put deleveraging as the capital allocation priorities.
Matt, you have concretely asked what would that mean for a year 2025? I just tried to give you that example in the sources and uses analysis. If you take a midpoint year with, say, EUR 6 billion of operating cash flow, and you have EUR 5 billion of organic investments and say, EUR 1 billion of base dividend, where we say we don't go below that would be today's level. Then there is EUR 1.5 billion left. This is the headroom. In addition, today, we already have a headroom because we are only at 21% of the leverage ratio, where we can say we want to stay below 30%. That means, as Alfred has pointed out, priority number two, before even we talk about inorganic growth, is the dividend.
That is the first thought that we will have. If there is an opportunity, then the headroom allows us to act. That might be bigger of what's left, and then there will be the leverage for a certain period higher, but then deleveraging kicks in as a higher priority than for inorganic growth. That's how we think. Be assured there is headroom in what we think is midpoint thinking, midpoint of the cycle, midpoint of the period, and it's quite significant. In both directions, there is room to maneuver in the dividend as well as in inorganic growth.
Thanks.
Thanks, Matt. We now come to Tamás Pletser, Erste Bank.
Yes, thank you very much. Good afternoon. Yeah, my two questions would be the following. First of all.
Tamás, can you?
Can you hear me?
Not very good. Can you try to speak up a little bit, please?
Yeah, I try to speak up. I hope you understand me. My first question would be about your low carbon business investments. How do you prioritize basically these investments? Basically I think if you have an investment which has a low return, but would help you to meet your Scope 1, 2, 3 targets, what would be the priority? To do this investment in order to meet the emission targets or to make the investment in order to meet the return requirements? That would be my first question. And my second question would be regarding your, you know, approach to the business. I understand that you try to make those projects where you have a kind of a deep knowledge or a kind of a proprietary technology like ReOil or Borstar. Do I understand this correctly?
Also on ReOil, do you see that this project can be achieved in a large scale? You have some signs for them that it can be working? Thank you.
Thank you for your question, Tamás I hope I understood everything correctly, on your technology part. My interpretation was, or what I think I heard was you are asking how solid is our position in the technologies that we can actually differentiate and can it be scaled up. Let me maybe start with the Borstar technology. I think there we really have a proven track record, over the many years already, and we continue to develop that technology. We continue to invest into the technology. We are now on the, let's say, third generation of that, Borstar polyethylene technology, and the plant we built in the U.S. is that third generation. A couple of things.
The plant there will be on a scale much bigger than the average plant. I think it could actually be one of the biggest, if not the biggest, polyethylene plants in the world. That is one thing that this Borstar 3G technology enables. More important for us is the differentiation of the products that we can make on it. We can make products that we can sell into certain applications that have advantages for the customers that they can then reward in the price. The Borstar technology we have so far always identified that we can still extract more value by keeping the technology in-house and only using it with joint venture partners in joint ventures where we are actually one of the partners.
You see that in the Borouge joint venture, where all nine polyolefin plants are based on Borstar technology. You can see that also in our joint venture with Total in the U.S., where Borstar was also the choice of technology in order to build that plant. There we have a really good track record. Your second question was around ReOil. How confident are we? Of course, this is something that we are scaling up. But I think the big advantage that we have in OMV is we have been working on this for more than 10 years. For more than 3 years, we have a pilot plant that is integrated into the refinery in Schwechat and has been running as part of the operation there.
You can believe me, we didn't start like this three years ago. With a lot of improvements, a lot of work that the people have done, we are now able to run this 24/7. Yeah? That makes us significantly more confident. We have now also FID'd the next stage of development of a ReOil 2000 plant, we call that. We call it a demonstration plant, but it will make 16,000 tons of chemically recycled plastics. Other people call those full-scale plants. We will then use that as an intermediate step to go to a full-scale plant that we want to have by 2026.
We are pretty confident that we can make those steps, but we make the intermediate step because in refining and in chemicals, it is kind of normal to have a 10x-20x upscale factor. Normally they don't recommend more than this. This is what we are doing here, just to make sure. It sometimes looks like you could go faster, but in the end, with all the problems, you don't go faster. We are trying to stay disciplined and make good steps here.
For the low carbon business investment priorities, I would like to ask Reinhard, maybe, because we actually have quite a good capital allocation framework, and that is going beyond just some of the financials where we are looking at how this fits into our strategy also.
Sure. Tamás , very happy to explain that a little bit from the financial point of view, and then maybe Martijn wants to give some real-life examples on how we do that. First of all, our targets regarding CO2 emission reduction are not negotiable. We will do the projects that bring us to this situation, and this has a clear priority as such. However, we don't do it just whatever we can think of. There has to be a financial return to that. In the framework that we have presented today, what it states is that it might not have the ultimate hurdle rate. It is at least to bring a hurdle rate of the country WACC, the weighted average cost of capital in the specific country where we are for that specific sector.
This is our minimum requirement in terms of financials. On the other hand, we have given a little bit of a leeway regarding the payback period because we know we cannot buy existing businesses on that. We have to grow them. We have to scale them up. This is at the level of below 20 years of a payback period. This frame exists, and this is how we will prioritize. Martijn, maybe you would like to give some concrete examples what is being done.
I would love to, because I think on the sustainable chemicals and fuels, it's as Johann said, mechanical recycling, chemical recycling, but also the renewable-based chemicals, like Alfred said, and the renewable fuels. It's important to understand that we are looking at that as an attractive opportunity for specialty products. These are very high quality chemicals or polyolefins, but then with a label of chemical recycling or kind of renewable. The same for fuels. Drop-in solutions, but renewable, which is really what customers are looking for. The interesting thing is in the Central Europe, Eastern Europe region where we are playing, we also have opportunity because we have many industrial sites to make small investment steps.
We don't have to do this journey to 1.5 million tons renewable fuels and feedstock, for instance, in one big go, but we can tailor there in a number of attractive investments. We are doing at the moment the investment, for instance, Schwechat, for the co-processing plant. That project met the hurdle rate, our strict hurdle rates, and has even improved because the legislative environment and the needs to actually decarbonize, that's even improved and is now a very attractive investment opportunity. We've also just recently very small quantities, but we've launched together with our customers, with our team in Austria, sustainable aviation fuel. You can also see there that is a premium product.
Until it also becomes a legislative must, and then we see also very good margin constellations arising around that. That's kind of important to understand that in these low carbon segments, we think there are attractive investments to be made.
Okay. That's it then. That's very clear. Thank you very much. Thank you.
Thanks a lot, Tamás. Before we come to the next Zoom question, there is also a written question that we have received from James Hubbard, Deutsche Bank. Russia is tiny in your overall value and cash flow picture. Why not just walk away as some others have done?
Yeah. Thank you for the question. I think the answer is relatively straightforward. There is actually no way to just walk away from this at this moment. There is legislation around. There's presidential decrees and so on. What we have done therefore is we have said we will take the necessary value adjustments and then we will study options, how we can actually either exit, divest, or how we can continue properly. There is no such way that you can just walk away.
Thanks. Alfred, we now come again to Mehdi Ennebati, Bank of America.
Hi. Thank you. Thanks. I just have two follow-up questions, please. One for Johann Pleininger on the upstream. Johann Pleininger, if you can use a headset, it would be better because I have some difficulty to hear you. But on your 2025 production target, you know, 450 kboe/d, this is roughly 40 kboe/d lower than the 2021 level. So which country will be the main contributor, let's say to the production decrease? Can you tell us a little bit about that? Is it only from Petrom, from Romania? Or yeah, maybe there is another country, you know, which will suffer from a relatively high decline rate in the next three to five years.
Johanns, you already answered to that, but I did not hear the answer. What production level from Russia do you take into account in your 450 kboe/d? The second question is on Borealis, you know, follow-up on Borealis, the 25% that you don't control, that you do not own. You said several times that Borealis is a highly profitable investment, highly profitable company. I understand that you want to keep growing inorganically, but would you say that in the current environment it would be relatively challenging or no to find an investment as profitable as purchasing the remaining 25% of Borealis? Thank you.
Thank you, Mehdi. I'll start with the Borealis question, and then I will ask Johann if he can explain to you the 2025 E&P numbers there. On the Borealis acquisition, you're of course correct, right? We could see that when we bought the 39%, we said this was a very attractive acquisition, and we were able then in 2021, which was the first year of full consolidation, the market was also with us, and with this, we delivered excellent results. The next question, of course, becomes how to further proceed.
Maybe one of the other things that I should mention in this Borealis context, if you remember, initially we said that Borealis acquisition will deliver synergies of about EUR 700 million. Relatively quickly, after the closing happened, we were able to identify another EUR 100 million in synergies. Actually after 2021 now, we have found that we can exceed that. We'll be north of the EUR 800 million synergies over the first five years. Yes, it's a profitable company with good growth prospects, and also good synergy aspects. How that relates to other acquisition projects, I don't want to speculate because one is different than the other.
At this point, we don't have anything to comment there in what it compares to some other acquisition targets. Yeah, maybe Hans can answer the upstream question.
Yeah. Thank you, Mehdi, for the questions. I would like to answer it. Regarding 2025 production, the main decline is coming from three countries, which is Petrom, so Romania, Norway and Russia. This would lead then in total to 450,000 boe/d . Your second question was, what is the production level of Russia in 2025? It's 80,000 boe/d compared to close to 100,000 boe/d today.
Perfect. Thank you. Thanks a bunch, Hans.
Thanks, Mehdi, for your follow-up questions. We have now more questions from Raphaël Dubois again. Raphael.
Thank you very much. Just maybe can we have an update on the disposal of the German filling stations, Slovenian filling stations? On Borealis Nitrogen, I think I read that you will still look for and acquire of this business. Considering what's happening in Europe with the gas price and how dependent we are on imports, and that's true as well for nitrogen fertilizers, could you eventually review your position on this asset and bring it back into a core position? That's my first question. On sustainable polymers, is the goal towards 2030 to be self-sufficient in pyrolysis oil? Will you have enough from ReOil and Renasci, or should we expect you to buy from third-party providers?
On your biopolymers, can you maybe tell us a bit more about the process you want to develop? Is this a proprietary technology, or is this something you will do with a partner?
Okay. Okay. Thank you very much, Raphaël, for your questions. You are covering a whole lot of territory there. I'll start with the sustainable polymers and with the nitro divestment, and then I will ask Elena on the retail station divestment in Germany and Slovenia, and then Martijn can maybe help on the bio-based feedstocks and fuels. Yeah? Let me start with the nitro divestment. You read correctly, we stopped the process with EuroChem for the obvious reasons there. Our strategy has not changed, right? The stopping that process was driven by the sanctions that have been put on the people and the companies.
The strategy in terms of fertilizer business has not changed, and therefore, we will also keep the fertilizer business as an asset held for sale. We are just trying to put together a team that is looking at how we will operationalize this through the year. On the sustainable polymers and the self-sufficiency, what we are looking at there is, it was actually 2 million tons of total products from sustainable sources. And that had all mechanical recycling, chemical recycling, and bio-based feedstocks that we want to use there. We have some idea how this can be split up, but we haven't locked this in completely yet.
With our ReOil and Renasci plants, we will not be able, the ones that we are envisioning at the moment, this would be falling short of where we want to go. We will need to find either on the market additional volumes or build additional capacity. Maybe with this, I hand over to Elena on the retail stations.
Thank you, Alfred. Happy to cover those two deals that we've signed and are still pending closing. The German gas station or filling station sale has been somewhat delayed due to the European antitrust authorities pushing the deal back for approval into German antitrust authorities. They have now reviewed the case and require the completion of the disposal of some of the assets prior to closing. That process is going very actively. The buyer is supported by us absolutely a hundred percent. I believe that closing is quite well on the way.
They also are very much interested in completing the asset disposal as quickly as possible and closing as quickly as possible. Slovenia is on track. We are obviously in touch with the buyer as well, and they've gone through all of the necessary clearing at this stage. We have planned on the closing actually at the beginning of next year. We do hope that we're still going to be able to get it through this year. We're working together with the buyer on this, but nothing further, nothing out of the ordinary on this deal. It's going as planned.
Excellent. Can I just ask one follow-up to Alfred on ReOil and Renasci? You said that what you contemplate now is not enough for your needs, but does it mean, would you rather go for organic expansion of those two technologies, or do you think you will have to be reliant on third-party suppliers?
I think both are, in principle, possible. We will be looking in both areas. At this point, we are really focused on building our own capacity with ramping the ReOil plant up and with bringing the Renasci plant back on stream and putting this fully in operation.
Thank you.
We still want to go to Martijn and answer your bio-based feedstock and fuels question.
Yeah. Thank you. Yes. We are very deliberate where we are aiming for proprietary technology and where we work with partners. In the family we have the Borstar technology proprietary for polyolefins. Gives us a real competitive edge. On steam crackers and on refining technology, we license in. But on these new areas of circular feedstock, chemicals, fuels, we are looking very much at kind of where we can get a competitive edge with proprietary technology. That's the ReOil technology on chemical recycling. The funnel that Alfred described, right? Where he showed kind of the R&D activities on bio feedstocks and different bio processing technologies that we're looking at to see where we can also gain a competitive edge.
What we'll do on the renewable feedstock, the bio feedstocks, is we'll work with partners and license in where available, but we'll also be specifically looking at feedstock flexibility and try to gain a competitive edge there as well as in processing technologies. In that sense, it's kind of also an innovation efforts that we want to have in refining on that renewable feedstock.
Thank you.
Thank you, Raphaël. The next questions come from Bertrand Hodee, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Good afternoon, everyone. Two questions. One, on Russia. What was the contribution of the JV trading arm with Gazprom in 2021? And what is the contribution you have assumed from this entity in both 2025 and 2030? That is my first question. And then the second question is, it's a bit difficult, you know, to compare what you are targeting in 2025 in terms of EBIT and cash flow or 2030.
Have you made the exercise of normalizing 2021 EBIT or 2021 cash flow with your underlying macro assumption you are using either for 2025 and 2030, so we can make, you know, an apples-to-apples comparison? One final one. I wanted to make sure your 2025 and 2030 Brent oil price assumption, $65 in 2025 rising to $70 in 2030, those are nominal assumption?
Yeah. Bertrand
On the Russian situation. What we are seeing is that the contribution of the JV Yuzhno-Russkoye in 2021, and this is comparable to some of the previous years because there has not been too much of a volatility, maybe with the exception of the year 2020 where also the buffer prices have gone very low, has been between EUR 150 million and EUR 200 million. Yeah. Now we are seeing in the year 2021 that there has been a higher contribution there so far, as Alfred has mentioned.
2022.
2022, sorry. As Alfred has mentioned, there is some EUR 200 million now for the first quarter that we see currently as trapped cash. Let's see how this is developing. This seems that 2022, the contribution of course with the spiking gas prices here will be higher than in the previous year. To your second question about have we done a normalization exercise. I think the years 2021 and 2022, 2025, 2030 are not directly comparable, and therefore, the apple-to-apple comparison is difficult because of course we are changing the portfolio. We are changing the portfolio on the one hand side in having this underweighting of the upstream side with the reduction of close to 500,000 BOE back to below 400,000 BOE.
On the other hand, new businesses coming in. Therefore, if you would see a like-for-like comparison, then you would see it quite according to the sensitivities that we have given when it comes to the assumptions on the one hand side and the EBIT sensitivities and cash flow sensitivities that we have given there. The real increase comes actually from the fact that we grow the chemical sector, and the chemical sector keeps, although maybe not as high as in 2021, still a good profitability and a good margin situation in the average over this period.
Therefore, the growth of that segment is the biggest driver that we can on the one hand side replace profitability that has come from E&P in the past, and on the other hand contribute to the increased level of profitability that we have. Then your third question was about whether the Brent prices that we are giving is nominal prices. We actually see that as real prices. What we are doing here is there is a certain assumption until 2025, so this goes to the 65, and then we keep it flat, but we have a certain inflation on that, and that brings it over the five years to the 70 that we have in 2030.
Okay. Thank you, Bertrand. I'll take another written question and comment. Fritz Mostböck from Erste Bank writes, "Congratulations. Your further transformation strategy of the portfolio to chemicals refining and marketing and E&P makes sense. Can you also imagine to invest in other alternative energy classes to improve further your ESG rating and perception?
Yeah. Fritz, first of all, thank you very much. It's always also nice to get some positive feedback. Thank you for that. It's really been quite a significant effort of a significant amount of people to come up with that strategy. As you may imagine, right, to agree on something like this looks easier once you distilled it to a small number of charts. Thank you for that.
Investing in alternative other energy classes, what we have currently in our portfolio is that we will invest into geothermal energy, into carbon capture and storage, and then we will also invest into renewable energy such as photovoltaic and wind, in particular in OMV Petrom because we see the sun or the conditions there better. We have an interesting combination with our combined cycle power plant there in order to provide to mitigate for intermittent sources, but also changing demand over time. The investment in renewable energies is mainly for the purpose of also supplying internal need of electricity and to reduce our Scope 2 emissions.
If we find other interesting opportunities, we have not identified those at this point, but the ones that I talked about are in the
Strategy at this moment. What we also said is we want to further explore our involvement in hydrogen and the potential of working into energy storage, if any of the E&P assets can be used for energy storage in that context.
Thanks, Alfred. There's a follow-up question from Mehdi Ennebati.
Thanks a lot for Florian for taking my follow-up question. It's more a question, you know, on operations please, on current operations. Especially on chemicals. I have some indications that, you know, chemical margins are suffering, you know, from the current environment. Not for you, but in general. From what I remember during your last quarterly call, you told us that, you know, the higher the chemical price, the higher the discounts to your customers. I just would like to understand, you know, if in your chemical price formula, there is a kind of price cap which doesn't allow you know, to increase your margin under the current environment.
On the contrary, would you say that, thanks to your unique positioning, you know, with 40% of your business benefiting from kind of fixed margin, you are kind of doing much better than the other under the current environment. If you also may tell us about what you expect regarding the European chemical margin from now on to 2025, because you gave a guidance until 2030, but from now on to 2025, what do you expect? Thank you.
Yeah, Mehdi, thank you for the question. Maybe just to clarify the discount comment that you made, this was really around the base chemical part and not the total chemical pieces, right? It was around ethylene and propylene. Our advantage of course is that we are more or less integrated into that business. The ethylene that we produce, we also put into the polyolefins. As regards to the margins, I think what I can say is that the beginning of the year we started actually with quite healthy margins in January and February with some good performance around the indicator margins in polyethylene and polypropylene higher than we actually maybe expected.
I think March will be a little bit more difficult because of the big volatility in so many different things and we will have to see how this will end up exactly. I think by the time we can then announce our first quarter results, we'll have a bit of a clearer view how this will work out exactly. Of course, gas prices and increasing utility costs and everything have created some turbulence. What I can also say is that demand is still good. What we also continue to see is still issues with logistics and therefore limited imports still into Europe. In that sense, in order to supply the demand, the pricing has to follow accordingly.
Now, looking out to the full year, we now have in our assumptions for polyethylene a margin of EUR 400 per ton, and for polypropylene, about EUR 600 per ton. As we looked at that strategy on the way forward, we looked at a combined margin for total polyolefins 2025 of about 420, and 2030 closer to 500.
Thanks very much.
Thanks, Mehdi. We are a little bit over the hour, but there's still one follow-up question from Raphaël. Raphaël, please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you. Just very quickly, the EUR 200 million that is trapped in Russia, can you confirm that this is equivalent to what you should have received for Q1 2022? If that is the case, should we compare it with the EUR 200 million that at the time of the acquisition you guided as an annual dividend, i.e., the cash generation is running 4 times higher than what was the case at the time of the acquisition?
Why don't you want to-
Raphaël, I can take this question. This is exactly the right understanding. In fact, why I was saying it is a trapped cash, or it seems to be, because dividends normally are paid in August. This is an anticipation, and I'm just giving you the number for Q1. If you would just do the multiply by four math, then you would be right, then it would be four times as we had originally anticipated at the time of the acquisition. However, I'm very, I would say cautious to predict how the coming three quarters really look like. Therefore, I think to give a prediction for the full year is a little bit premature, but I can confirm the EUR 200 million for the first quarter. The trapped is an assumed situation.
There is not even a trigger that we would be eligible to get it now. It would be due anyway only in August, so therefore this is more an act of caution if we say this is trapped because we are looking at all the legislation, we are looking at sanctions, we are looking at bank restrictions, and therefore we assume that there could be a possibility for that for a certain period of time that cash is not directly available. On the other hand, it's not disappearing. That is also not the case.
Thank you.
Thank you, Raphaël. We now come to the end of the Q&A session. Thank you everyone for participating today, and we hope you come away with the same excitement about the potential of OMV that we see here at the company. Should you have any further follow-up questions, please contact the investor relations team. We are at your disposal. We hope you have a good rest of your week. Thanks again. Bye.