Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome. Thank you for joining the UBM publication of the third quarter report 2022 conference call. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, you may press star followed by one. Press the star key followed by zero for operator assistance. It's my pleasure. I would now like to turn the conference over to Thomas Winkler. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, Francine, good morning to everybody. Thank you for dialing in and your interest in UBM. Because there has not been a lot going on in Q3, as you could already imagine from a lack of news flow. All eyes are now on year-end. We shall see a photo finish. Regarding results, Q3 was neutral as a function of the perfect storm in which we got earlier than expected and as predicted. Good news, we go into the crisis cash rich and equity strong. Maybe most importantly, our positioning is sustainable in the best sense of the word. With timber construction, we have hit the bull's eye and get confirmation by our rating agencies. Let us turn immediately to slide number four.
The best news I have to report is that we have been granted permission for Europe's first urban quarter built in timber, the Leopold Quartier in the heart of Vienna. With 75,000 square meters of floor area and several hundred million EUR of sales volume, this project is becoming UBM's largest scale development. It is carbon neutral, generates its own energy on site, and meets all criteria required for a certification and Taxonomy point of view. The Leopold Quartier is also a good reminder for the unpredictability of timing, which lies in the nature of our business. However, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Instead of having developed the largest hotel ever, we are now developing the best located new office space in Vienna, while Vienna will suffer from an undersupply of new office space in the next years, according to CBRE.
We shall provide the market with the most advanced apartments in Vienna city center when it comes to carbon footprint. More generally speaking, we are on track to become the number one and leading developer of timber multi-story buildings in Europe. Please turn to slide nine. What you can see is a timber pipeline worth almost EUR 1 billion and with more than 80,000 square meters. This results in a reduction of our carbon footprint of more than 20,000 tons. 20,000 tons. This also represents an outperformance of our top ESG goal to develop more than 100,000 square meters of timber construction by 2025. With a 45%-55% mix of resi and office, this is also an extremely balanced portfolio, not putting all eggs into one asset class.
Today, the first question on every real estate investor's mind is: What is going to be the value of my investment in 10 years from now? With a timber construction project, the answer is almost self-explanatory. It is future-proof. This is not only appreciated by the investors, but also by the rating agencies. Please have a look at slide number six. ISS ESG confirmed our undisputed industry lead. UBM is the only company in the DACH region's real estate and construction industry which can boast of a B-minus rating. Just have a look at the league table on the left-hand side. UBM is also among the top 1% of companies with a platinum rating of all companies assessed by EcoVadis worldwide. We made it into the Austrian Sustainability Index, VÖNIX, and expect a good rating from CDP before year-end.
I hope I do not sound overly self-confident, but I'm proud of UBM and our team. In UBM, sustainability is not a trend. It has become an attitude. May I now hand over to Patric for the numbers and our competitive positioning regarding financials. Patric, please.
Thank you, Thomas. Welcome to our call today. Let's have a look at slide number seven. As the title already suggests, cash at hand will be the key factor in the upcoming quarters. Our internal management, with its focus on cash flow, allowed us to hold UBM's liquidity position at a high level during the third quarter, even with an increase over the first half year. Cash and cash equivalents totaled EUR 358 million as of thirtieth of September 2022 . Due to our financial strength, we were able to negotiate another off-market transaction in Q3 in Düsseldorf. We were also able to keep our cash cushion despite extraordinary and normal cash outs, like the repayment of hybrid capital totaling EUR 25 million and the payment of a dividend and hybrid interest so far this year.
Compared with the pre-corona year-end 2019, cash increased by almost EUR 145 million. As already mentioned several times in other calls, this financial buffer makes us independent of bank processes, guarantees, and timelines, and puts us in a favorable position for opportunity hunting. Timber Port is an example for this. On the right-hand side of the slide, we give you an overview of our redemption profile. In October, the remainder of our three-one quarter bond was repaid. As you can see from the shaded areas, more than 35% of our financing is already green. This is a result from the highly successful placement of our two sustainability-linked bonds last year. Let me also remind you that we tapped the Schuldschein market this year with a value of EUR 40 million right before market closed.
Right now, we are continuously screening the debt market in order to get into action. The one hand, we take a look at repurchase possibilities, which is not as straightforward as it seems, given this limited liquidity of our bonds. The other hand, we want to be ready as soon as possible for any window of opportunity when it opens up. Please have now a look at slide number eight. By the end of the first three quarters of 2022, equity amounted to almost EUR 492 million. As already mentioned before, we repaid a hybrid of EUR 25 million in June. One effect we need to flag is an error correction of the OePR, the Österreichische Prüfstelle für Rechnungslegung, which is the Austrian Financial Reporting Enforcement panel.
OePR identified an error in the annual financial statements for 2020, which indicated that the risk associated with the expected procurement of building rights of a project was not sufficiently reflected in the fair value of the property. The recognized fair value should have been EUR 39 million lower, which subsequently influenced the acquisition costs for the initial at equity recognition of the investment and led to a correction of EUR 27 million to equity. The correction of this error has neither an effect on the consolidated statement in our P&L for 2022, nor on any cash position. Despite this correction, we still report a healthy equity ratio of 33.4% and are clearly committed to our target range of 30%-35%.
Net debt slightly decreased compared to half year and is still comfortable, not only in absolute terms, but even more so compared with the balance sheet total. We continue to be conservatively positioned with our LTV, which is well below our target limit of 50%. At the end of the first three quarters, our loan-to-value stands at 32.2%. Together with our illiquidity situation, this provides UBM with enough headroom and reserves for uncertain times and opportunities. Please turn now to slide number nine. Our half year report indicated that we were heading towards the perfect storm. It has, however, arrived faster than expected, and the real estate industry is currently in a crisis mode. A real turning point after 12 years of a steady upward trend and a situation that will probably not calm down in the near future.
The investment market remains in a state of shock paralyzes and at EUR 16.6 million, EBT for the first three quarters of 2020 was on the level of the first half-year without significant changes. The rising interest rates undoubtedly increase investment costs and trigger higher yield expectations with real estate investors. The same applies for still incalculable in construction costs. Rising energy prices cause headaches for many, and the affordability of living has all at a sudden become a subject again after decades. The pandemic came to stay, and the International Monetary Fund calls China's non-COVID policy one of the two biggest threats to the world economy. However, as I have already stated on the previous two slides, we see ourselves in a good financial position to ride the perfect storm and wait for less volatility.
Further success in 2022 will be determined primarily by three factors in the fourth quarter. First, on the public authorities in Munich, where our largest scale project, Baubergerstraße, is nearing the end of the approval process. Second, on the timely completion of the F.A.Z. Tower in Frankfurt and its transfer to the owner before year-end. Third, we are heading towards the assessment season where the industry, the real estate appraisers, have to come to a conclusion how rising interests, rising rents, and volatility influence the valuation of assets. Back to Thomas for more details on our outlook.
Thanks, Patric. From all Patric has already presented, I can only summarize the following. All eyes are on year-end, and a lot will depend on the last five weeks in terms of reporting and track record. Fundamentally, however, it makes little difference if we are able to close the F.A.Z. transaction and obtain permission for Baubergerstraße by end of this year or beginning of next year. Both will deliver the respective financial results in due course. What I'm more concerned with is the state of the real estate industry and the impact of a change in interest rates going forward. To quote an English saying, never waste a good crisis. We shall see a significant number of special situations which will lay the foundation for our future profitability. You only quote unquote, have to be in the right place at the right time.
Do not invest too early, and at the same time, do not miss the opportunity. As it stands right now, 2023 is the year of truth for many, particularly private developers. With interest rates still on the rise, many competitors will struggle to refinance delayed projects or provide additional equity required because of construction cost overrun. Banks will be left with stranded projects, and neither have the willingness nor the expertise to execute them, themselves. We believe that those will be rewarded who have shown a solid business acumen in the days of boom and stayed away from scandals and false fame. With half a billion EUR of equity and high cash reserves compared with the overall size of our business and in absolute terms, UBM feels well-positioned to participate in the opportunity hunting and has the resources and expertise to do so.
I hope, of course, you join us in this view. There might be still a number of questions on your mind, and I'm delighted to answer them together with Patric. May I therefore open the lines for your questions, and thank you once again for your interest in UBM.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. We have the first question from Simon Stippig, from Warburg Research. Your question, please.
Thank you very much for the presentation, taking my questions. First question would be in regard to Q4 2022 and the guidance, you already mentioned a little bit that it's highly dependent on the F.A.Z. Tower and the Baubergerstraße. Maybe you can elaborate what could be potential impediments, what could be potential time delays, et cetera, in the last five weeks, or also where do you stand right now?
Okay. Of course, I can. A good question, Simon. Look, without any doubt, the F.A.Z. Tower is a very complex and big scale project, right? It is comparable with the headquarters that we've built for Zalando. Now with Zalando, there were no hiccups or whatever. In between the Zalando headquarters and the F.A.Z. headquarters, there was a pandemic. We all are currently witnessing how this pandemic seems to have, forgive my English, screwed up every process. That starts when you go to a restaurant, you have the same waitress as there were in the past. It's the same menu, it's the same chef, and still, it doesn't work as it used to work.
Now, not to be meant as an excuse, and we've never complained and clearly stated that in terms of raw material supply, okay, we could help ourselves. We find out now that when it comes to handover of this project, of course, all whatever you wanna call it, all bits and pieces must link to each other and work. That's very important for us as well, you know? We do not want to put any tenant or whoever at risk because it's not done 100%. It turned out with the issues that we are having, that they seem to be more numerous than we have originally expected.
Yes, it is also a complex project because you have the Timber Pioneer right next to F.A.Z. Tower, and they are linked even with an underground parking, and the Timber Pioneer is going to be completed end of first quarter, beginning of second quarter of next year, and. Don't underestimate the complexity, and we want to be clear with you and give you a heads up on this one. I would have loved to report to you already that the handover has happened and I don't know, thirtieth of November is a pure formality. That's to the one point, and I hope it answered your question.
To Baubergerstraße, we have a similar issue when it comes dealing with public authority. Now I'm the last one to do a public authority bashing because I think they do their very best. You know, from your own experience, you know, you're not immune that somebody gets COVID and that processes are delayed. What we do not do as a matter of principle, we don't intervene. Okay. We don't try to put some kind of pressure on a public servant that tries to do their best. Again, you know, I would have loved to report to you that the permission is granted for Baubergerstraße, and everything is in the green and motherhood and apple pie.
Unfortunately, it is not the case, as with many other aspects of our life. I think we all have underestimated, to a certain extent, how difficult it is to get an engine really going again. This, you know, does not change the 31st of December. The 31st of December, okay, with and without COVID is coming in five weeks time, you know, no way around. That makes it very challenging. Of course, we do everything that we can do to the best of our ability, because I think we have an immaculate track record built over the last six years, and I would hate to come back to you and ask for your understanding that we are still in an extraordinary situation. I simply cannot outrule it.
Does this answer your question, Simon?
Sure. I would have two small follow-ups.
Sure.
As I understand in regard to the F.A.Z. Tower, I mean, surely it's a huge project, it's linked to the Timber Pioneer and there are a lot of complexities. I just wonder, is it because there's not enough labor or is it because there are eventualities that, as you said, for example, the parking garage? It's just to understand it a little bit clearer on the F.A.Z. Tower.
No, look, at the end I understand. It's even more difficult than this because at the end everything must and forgive me, but I think most of the listeners are German-speaking anyway,
Yeah.
Yeah. We have kind of interrupted the process simply because of the aftermath of what we've seen at COVID. Every sub-supplier of ours is struggling from this problem. You have changing teams. You know, you have still an extraordinary situation. I think our people and also our suppliers have done an excellent job. I was really pleased and delighted when we had Richtfest at Timber Pioneer to see, you know, how much craftsmanship went into it. At the end, you know, everything must be in place. That's the good thing about Germany.
You know, you don't get a permission until the very last document is in place. It's in the interest of everyone, including us, because we don't want to run the risk that something is not working flawlessly. That, that is what we are currently facing. We get a lot of understanding from F.A.Z., I must say. Okay? We at the same time also enable F.A.Z. is already moving in. Okay? We try to improvise to the best of our abilities. As you know, the Austrians are not really bad in improvising. At the end of the day, you can't improvise the permission, you know?
It is, it is a clearly set process. It is what we always said, what we like about the market in Germany and in Austria because they are 100%, you know, legal markets. I can't kind of say, you know, it's a lack of labor. Of course it isn't because, you know, at the end of a of such a process, you throw, you know, every resource on the project that is necessary. To get the pieces linked to make the ends meet, I can't think of a better English terminology. It takes also a bit of how shall I say?
luck and luck in the sense of nobody must fall ill. Everything. Okay?
That's understood. Maybe just in regard to the Baubergerstraße and also in relation to the adjustment. Now when you're getting the approval, and you're obviously getting the approval, it just takes a little bit more time. Why did the regulator not see that and would then actually not adjust it historically, but just say, "Okay, we are seeing there's visibility on your receival of the approval in the Baubergerstraße." I assume that it is Baubergerstraße because, I mean, you sold back then 40% to a partner in Q2 2020. That was the only project.
I still don't know going forward, in Q4 2022 if you get the approval, then obviously there will be a one-off gain, which probably you had a part in the past. Can you just elaborate a little bit about that and so I understand it a little bit better that, you know, the regulator couldn't see the visibility. You had the visibility. It's probably just a delay of the authorities. How do you put that together?
Maybe Simon, let me try to shift a little bit more light into this one. You pointed it out correctly, it was Bow Back or this Bow Back we are talking about, and we have to go back now to the year 2022. We sold it on the basis of the assumption that we get the building permission, the preliminary building permissions, I think the right English expression for that. In the near-term future, that was the assumption when we signed the contract together and every of the two parties who signed the contract, and half of that was already paid at that year, have seen that as the most likely scenario that it will come within a foreseeable future.
We all know that at the beginning of 2020, we were running into COVID and everything else, and the authority process was taking much longer than expected. Now you have to see when Pierre is coming to the table and saying, "Yeah, but in your contract there is also a clause saying if it is not coming," which we don't see as the most likely scenario. What is happening then, and the contract would then have a different value. They were saying, "As long as you are not sure," I mean, sure meaning that you have it black and white on paper, and there can be taken the view that you should have reflected that differently in your numbers.
In the end after the discussion, we have to accept that this is also a valid view as the view we have taken at that point of time. That was the reason why we were saying, "Okay, as long as we don't have it, we correct the numbers back in 2020." It's roughly half the gain we got from this, from that, contract, the legally contract we have signed. The contract is still in place. We are hoping that this will be healed soon because we are waiting for this permission. As Thomas has pointed it out, we have the authority process. We are hoping that we can get it until year-end. We are not sure if this can happen.
If it comes next year, it will turn out to be the value which we have expected at least. You are right in what you were saying, but we have to accept, and we as the management team also had this discussion quite intensively. We have to accept that there is a different view you can take, and in the end, we have taken that view as well.
Okay, great. That is all understood. Just, if I may, I had two short questions, two short additional questions. One is in regard now to your, what you elaborated, and thank you very much for your Q4 2022 expectations, et cetera. Just what it also means is that your earnings per share, including your hybrid payments as a basis for dividends, will be a lot lower. Is then what I assume current levels, then the dividend policy of paying out certain share, let's say 50% of EPS, would be a lot lower. Is that, would you then adjust it or can you comment on the dividend in some way?
Well, look, Simon, I think it's a bit early to talk about the dividend if you're not sure what the year-end result is going to be. I mean, we have a clear dividend policy where we say we want to participate our shareholders in our profitability. We have a clear dividend policy in the respect that we are saying we want to adjust the dividend policy according to the earnings expectations going forward. This doesn't change and this hasn't changed even in COVID times, where many of our peers, as the first action that they took slashed the dividend. We didn't, you know?
Yeah.
We came out pretty quickly and had our AGM in May and not in October to keep all options open, la, la. We will continue to do so. Again, all depends on what the profit is going to be at year-end. And from this profit, we derive a dividend that is in line with our policy.
Okay, great. Thank you. That's understood. One short last one. In the SMA, in regard to project start in H1 2022 presentation, you indicated that you will start two projects in volume of EUR 14 million. Can you elaborate on that? If those projects have been started. Going forward, what do you see in regard to cost inflation, do you see more, do you have more visibility on the cost inflation?
Sure. I can do. You see a big smile on Chris Rainer's face because he's delighted that people really read what we are writing in our reports and presentations and circle back to it. The two projects that we had in mind were Thulestraße 48. We had already one project in Thulestraße in Berlin. The other one is the Adler Lodge in Kitzbühel.
Okay. Kirchberg, near Kitzbühel. We haven't started Thulestraße and refrained from it because the prices that we've obtained were not in line with our budget calculation. We said, better wait and see what prices are doing. I dare to forecast, the construction costs are not going to go up in the future. If you can afford to do so and we have a 50% partner there, he also agreed with us and in this, and we didn't start it. The other one is the Adler Lodge in Kitzbühel, a different animal, okay? The Adler Lodge in Kitzbühel is a bit extraordinary for us because it's luxury, okay?
The buyers are coming with their Porsche. They are not allowed to pay it in cash anymore. Don't get me wrong, they pay it in equity, okay? These are equity payers with 16 apartments and an independent chalet. We believe the market for this is always there because there is a need for people to kind of invest their money so that the value of their money is not disappearing over time as it is on their bank account. For this reason, we have accepted that the price levels were higher than we originally expected, okay? We have adjusted our sales price expectations.
I can't prove until it's finished and sold that our reasoning is right, but there are good indications from the interest that this project is getting that this is the right decision. These are the two projects we had in mind. One started, one not started. The one that we started for a reason because we believe that, you know, you want to ride the storm, as we put it in our presentation. That means you want to make use of the situation that people say, "I have a 10% plus inflation rate, and I want to invest in real estate, and I want to invest in real estate in my favorite ski resort.
Okay. Great. All understood. Just maybe one. I mean, you somehow answered already, the visibility of construction cost inflation is still, it's still tricky.
Well, there are good indications that particularly the subcontractors of the construction companies are already suffering from lack of labor. That is usually the first sign that it's going the other direction. Will cement prices go back to where they were before Corona? No. You see yourself what steel and aluminum prices have done, and I don't wanna talk about the halving of the wood prices or lumber prices, because I said this has, you know, nothing to do why we are in timber construction. We are in timber construction out of a conviction. We see an easing of anything that has to do with no energy intensive production.
We see a certain willingness on the construction company side, maybe not the very big ones because they have record backlogs. The medium sized ones, and the subcontractors, that lets us be cautiously optimistic.
Okay. Great. Thank you very much. Apologies for taking so much time.
No, no. I appreciate it.
The next question comes from Stefan Scharff from SRC Research. Your question please.
Good morning, gentlemen, from Frankfurt. Stefan here. My first question is about the hotel market and the hotel performance. You opened the Andaz Prague in March or April, I guess. Also Den Haag is quite new and also in Germany, Potsdam and Düsseldorf. Perhaps you can say a little bit more, how did you like the first nine months of the year and what you expect or what is your feeling for the hotel market in the next year, and might there be a deal here or is this too early to say?
We have to distinguish between the operations and the prices that we can achieve on the market for the real estate.
Mm-hmm.
On the operations, we are doing better than forecast, which doesn't mean a thing to you. The most important one is that the average room rate increase, okay, was significant. That couldn't have happened if the industry as a whole wouldn't be very disciplined. They all see that, you know, they can't control the cost otherwise. The occupancy rate is also on the upturn, but it's second most important after the average room rate.
We are very happy with the Andaz because now with Czechia being in the presidency of the EU, we had your Chancellor Scholz, even though I know that you have your certain feelings about him. We had the U.S. Defense secretary as our guest because it's a freestanding hotel, and from a security perspective, it's easier to control than any other five-star hotel in the Czech Republic. For you, maybe, an important side information is that also Machine Gun Kelly stayed at our place.
Mm-hmm.
We seem to be, you know, the place for the celebrities at the moment. We have a terrific director. She does an event every week almost, from Jimmy Choo pop-up store in suites, to welcoming artists and everything. I can only recommend see it with your own eyes. But I think we have even been voted best hotel in Prague, and you know that there is a very good Four Seasons hotel there as well. The occupancy, of course, in a five-star hotel takes time. We are not talking about 80%, we're talking about 50% occupancy rate. Let me also be straightforward with you on this one. Now, you've asked about the future.
We believe there are a couple of good arguments in favor of a future positive development of the operations. We see that people accept the new price levels.
Mm-hmm.
Even business travelers, okay, who usually have frame contracts, accept this because they have the same argument with their customers, you know, and don't expect hotel prices to stay the same. You might have noticed it yourself, the days where you could stay at a nice four-star hotel for EUR 150 are over, you know?
Yes.
They won't come back, promise. On the real estate side, I have no good news for you, because at the moment, the honest answer is that, if you want to sell a hotel, okay, you don't sell it really substantially above 20 times annual rent. Okay?
Mm.
Which really depressed, it's a 5% yield for the Austrian listeners. Now, there are maybe here or there exceptions, but generally speaking, we don't buy the interest that is shown for these hotels and have taken them off the market. When you have a look at our standing assets, and they have grown to EUR 500 million, I give you a rough figure, EUR 300 million are in hotels at the moment. The only good news that I can give you is we can afford it, okay?
Okay.
It blocks a certain balance sheet capacity, but we can afford it, and we will put the hotels owned on the market, when we see an indication that people appreciate that they may come too late if they don't buy right now. The time is not there yet.
Okay. Okay. Thank you. For the next Jimmy Choo event, please drop me a line so perhaps I can ask my girlfriend or tell her to go to Prague. Next question would be the bond market. You have a rather undemanding debt profile. I think it's EUR 120 million, but at the end of next year, November 2023. Perhaps, what is your best guess or your expectation now for the bond market to be more open throughout next year or what are your plans, your strategy here on your debt side?
Yeah. Stefan, thanks for this one. What I can tell you is, currently the bond market is closed. I mean, we are not the only ones with this observation. It is a market phenomenon. My read of that is that most of the reason why the bond market is closed, at least for companies who are in the unrated sector, is because there's so much volatility and unsecurity in the market. As long as we have that, we won't see a bond market to come back again. As you were pointing out, we are looking at that one a bit relaxed.
We are monitoring that because the moment it might be possible, we will go back to the market and use whatever is possible to be used. Saying that, my best guess currently would be that it will take at least the first half of next year to get the volatility and uncertainty out of the market.
Mm.
Maybe I'm wrong. I hope so, and it is quicker. I would say from today's point of view, the window of opportunity to come back to the market and try a bond issue is second half of next year.
I see. I see. My last question is about the upcoming opportunities in this district market. Can you tell us a bit more about the expectation of the sellers, about the multiples and what offers do you get at the moment and what offers might you get or what could be interesting at the beginning of next year?
Well, you are better aware than me, regarding the listed German companies that are in deep troubles, I don't want to mention them. It's sad for me actually, to witness this. We always have been aware of these kind of troubles that they have at an early stage. Unfortunately, the industry is an industry where people tell you three weeks before they file for bankruptcy, about their future plans and what they want to do. I think, this attitude must change because, you know, you have otherwise an unbridgeable gap between what you are prepared to pay in the new era, and what people have to accept to digest.
What we are talking about right now is how much they discount their book values. At half-year, I would have told you they still try to achieve book values, okay. They have appreciated that this is unrealistic, now we are just talking about how much loss can they digest so that they can sell it off. If they don't get it done, it will fall to the bank and their equity and mezzanine is completely gone. This is very abstract words. We are having contact with all the known and also some of the unknown market participants. Everybody kind of, you know, plays this upper lip.
I think the moment of truth is coming now at year-end, and year-end is five weeks from now. Okay. Okay. Thank you very much, guys. Sure. Thank you for your questions. I keep that in mind with the Jimmy Choo.
The next question is from Philipp Seewald from Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Investment Banking. Your question please.
Hey, guys. Good morning from Hamburg. Also from my side, thanks for the presentation. To wrap it up here, a quick one from my side. I would kindly ask you to give us a bit more color on this opportunity hunting you're aiming for next year regarding what volumes can we expect there? I mean, your pipeline is quite diversified, quite balanced between commercial and residential. Will that continue regarding future acquisitions or may it be that you focus on one of them more at least in the midterm?
Yeah. Good question or good questions. Let me start with it, and I think Patric also wants to add something to it. It's a fine line that we are walking, and I tried to make this point in my presentation when I said, you know, on the one hand, you don't want to buy too early. That's actually the problem that we have with real estate investors. They all hold back, and this is why we are in a shock paralysis, because nobody's buying, because everybody's afraid the market could go down by another 20% or so, okay? And that's the number that we are looking at right now. On the other hand, things can change pretty quickly.
No macro economist, not from the real estate arena, but from outside, believes that it is a long-term structural issue. Everybody believes that the market kind of, you know, gets a big shakeup and then will come right simply because the asset class is too attractive and it's becoming even more attractive at the end of the year. At the moment, it's slightly overrepresented in the portfolio of investors. The only reason for it is because you knock off the value of a share every day. That's different to the real estate arena. I guess that was the point that Patric also wanted to make. You asked me about the volume. It's more than we all can chew, I can promise.
I mean, we are talking about the perfect storm, and people come up to me and say, "Why are you so pessimistic?" "Why are you so dramatic in your language?" I tell them that I think I'm realistic in my view. I could also talk about the existential crisis of a lot of our competitors, okay, particularly the private ones, because they are completely cut off any source of equity. The mezzanine investors all try to get their money out and have almost disappeared or asked for 18%-20% interest rate, which kills every project. They have been undercapitalized traditionally for a long period of time.
What you did in the boom phase is you reinvested the equity that was freed up immediately in the next project. I predict that the year 2023, as mentioned, is going to be the year of truth. The important thing is that everybody gives you enough credit that you will be able to carry a project through and not so much how much money you could make with it, or if you get it for too low a price. It's more a question of, you know. Understand. Just wait, Patric. Maybe let me add a little bit because I got your question also in the direction that you were asking, what is our appetite, maybe?
Also on this one, we have to say that depends on a lot of factors. One is the refinancing capability, but from a balance sheet point of view, from an equity point of view, from the LTVs and also from the cash cushion we have, we are able at least to shoot for a good opportunity. The question is, how many opportunities are coming in which time frame? Because taking an opportunity on board will probably eat up quite some cash. We need a restructuring phase in order to free up the cash of the acquisition we have taken to get to the next one. If the expectation of the market is we do five acquisitions in two months, that's probably impossible for a company like UBM.
If we have a little bit time to digest, we can, I think, participate quite well on any opportunity the market is giving to us. What Thomas tries to tell you and to tell everybody is we will see in the year 2023, it will start. I don't expect that this will coming as a huge wave. It will more be an increase in the sea level, meaning that we see projects coming over time into the market which are promising.
All right. Understand. Thank you very much. That was quite helpful, guys.
There are no further questions at this time, and I hand back to Thomas Winkler for closing comments.
Thank you, Francine. Thank you for all of you who've been bearing with us. Thank you for your interest. Very good questions. All to the point. I hope we didn't sound too pessimistic on the market. Please keep our fingers crossed or pray for us, whatever your preference is. Have a good day and all the luck with the next conference call, I think, which starts at 11 for CIM. Bye-bye. Bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you very much for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.