Welcome to today's Earnings Call of UBM Development AG following the Publication of the First Half-Year Figures of 2025. We are delighted to welcome the CEO, Thomas Winkler, and the CFO, Patric Thate, who will speak in a moment and guide us through the presentation and the results. After the presentation, we will move on to an analyst Q&A session. As an institutional investor, we would like to invite you to contact UBM Development AG directly after the earnings call to clarify any questions you may have. We are looking forward to the results. Having said this, Mr. Winkler, please, the stage is yours.
Thank you. After such a pleasant introduction by Judith, I also wish you a very good and warm welcome and morning. The headline of today's conference call could be "It's Going Up Again." I do not want to be misunderstood. I'm not telling you [Foreign language] , but I can illustrate what I mean by running you through the summary on slide one. We have achieved a black zero, [Foreign language] in Q1, and all signs point in the direction of returning back to profitability in the course of the second half of this year. Two, once more, residential sales have proven to be a solid foundation. We have doubled our sales again in the first half. Maybe even more important, we have a pipeline of 2,800 apartments over the next four years in this asset class.
Three, we are well prepared to meet this year's and next year's financial obligations, both in terms of liquidity and refinancing. Four, and this is very important for me to mention, ESG is going to remain relevant. This is not only my prediction, but has recently been confirmed by PwC's State of Decarbonization 2025, Morgan Stanley's Sustainable Signals, and EY's [Foreign language] only for Germany. Five, I have already mentioned our financial outlook. What we also see in times like this is a flight to real assets, [Foreign language] . So far, with one exception, real estate. Our expectation is that real estate is going to follow. At this point, let us give Patric the opportunity to inform you about the financial highlight of Q2.
Thank you, Thomas. Good morning, everybody. Please turn to slide number two. We have improved our earnings before tax by 47% in the first half. This was made possible by a black zero in Q2, which has been mentioned by Thomas, but cannot be stressed strongly enough. Besides, our equity ratio is again back above 30%, and with this also lies within our target range of 30%- 35%. The successful issuance of a green hybrid has helped to bring our equity above EUR 350 million again. Net debt is slightly below EUR 550 million and well under control. Altogether, we are on track for our return to profitability in the second half, while at the same time having improved our balance sheet on which to build in the future. Back to Thomas.
Yes, please turn to slide number three. Once again, our operational highlight is in residential. We have increased the number of apartments sold to 208 compared with 97 in the first half of last year. Within two years, we have quadrupled our sales. We expect the trend to continue. In other words, this means that we are confident to keep our run rate of well above 100 apartments per quarter, also in the third quarter, resulting in more than 300 apartments sold by the end of September, despite the rather slow summer months. What makes us confident for the future are, as already mentioned, the 2,800 apartments in our pipeline. They ensure a solid [Foregn language], a solid basic utilization with a steady income stream. There's another reason fueling our self-confidence. See it on slide number four.
I guess particularly the German participants of this call appreciate that any commercial topic hitting Bild [Foreign language] headline is of utmost importance for the entire public, including politics. This is even more true if Bild is referring to a [ Foreign language] study. However, since Q4 2022, the number of newly started resi construction projects has decreased by 85%. This leads forecasts to drop expectations below 200,000 new apartments in 2025, below 200,000. At the same time, Q2 prices have been rising, the highest in the last 30 months in Germany. They have been rising by 3.8%. This is no exception. In Austria, the price increase was 4%, and in the Czech Republic, we have seen resi prices go up by 17%. For further details and the sources of information, I would like to direct you to the appendix of our presentation.
Shortage of supply intensifies, and the still ongoing shakeout in the real estate market further aggravates the situation. Back to Patric for more financial information.
Please turn to slide number five and our repayment profile. With a liquidity of EUR 168 million at the end of June and repayment obligations of EUR 102 million, we are in a comfortable position in 2025. We have successfully refinanced or exchanged a fair share of our repayments already. There are several capital market windows ahead of us to further shrink the EUR 117 million of repayments in 2026. Just have a look to the past. In only six months, we have raised almost EUR 160 million, not even including our latest refinancing of the [Foreign language] or [Foreign language] . Throughout the real estate downturn, we were able to access the capital market, and there is no reason why this should change as things are going up again. Key for successfully getting through the storm, or should I rather say hurricane, is our ability to manage our cash.
Just have a look at slide number six. Our cash position increased by more than 17% from Q1 to Q2. We are a responsible and reliable issuer. Recently, this has been proven by paying hybrid interest in Q2 despite no dividend payments in 2025. Liquidity permitting, we are also repaying bank debt to improve our financial result, as has been the case in Q1 of this year. The first email I open every day is our daily liquidity report. While this might be not a surprise for a CFO, I guess this is also true for my board colleagues and the managing directors of our country organizations, full focus on cash. Back to Thomas.
Yes. As mentioned in the summary, Europe cannot afford to leave the ESG path. Please turn to slide seven. ESG remains relevant. This is not only my conviction, but coincides with the studies that I've mentioned by Morgan Stanley, PwC, and Ernst & Young. All relevant links to these publications can be found in the most recent LinkedIn post that I've made, by the way. The reasons are economic. They are commercial reasons and not altruistic reasons. Europe cannot afford hundreds of billions of fossil energy imports every year. Most nations are post-peak fossil fuel use. It is no surprise that the top six Wall Street banks reduced financing for fossil fuels by 25%. Morgan Stanley led the pack with a 54% fall in financing. Damage of climate change must be mitigated. Just look at Spain with the strongest forest fires ever. Wait for the flooding season in autumn.
Insurance companies are struggling more and more, carrying the costs, and the general public is also not able to do so. There is no way around carbon pricing, I'm convinced. Building construction and operations is playing the most significant role in it, with 37% of total carbon emissions. Ultimately, ESG is a major driver of future growth in Europe. This is why we are also fighting to stay at the top of our industry regarding sustainability. Just have a look at slide eight. We have been an industry leader in the DACH region for the last four consecutive years. We enjoy top 1% platinum status with EcoVadis and released our second UBM Green Bond Allocation Report, which has been audited by PwC. Let me come to the outlook and the end of our formal presentation, as I expect a number of questions.
Let me ask you to turn to slide number nine. There are really three reasons to make our outlook sound more optimistic than before. One, we shall return to profitability underlined by our black zero in the second quarter. Two, look at the gold price, share prices, or even the price of Bitcoins. We can clearly and not surprisingly see a flight to real assets. There is no good reason why concrete gold should not follow. Real estate is the asset class which survived wars and most other crises best in the past. Needless to add that the political debate over mid-price [Foreign language] and capping indexation is accelerating the shortage of rental apartments and is accelerating thereby the flight into ownership. And three, the demand and supply imbalance is further aggravated by the most massive market shakeout in the last 40 years.
With demand often driven by pure need, it is difficult to see how projects which are carried through will not benefit in the end. Call me a converted optimist if you want, but with all potential backdrops, it is difficult to see how the future is not going to brighten up. With this, ladies and gentlemen, I would like to conclude our presentation. Thank you for your attention and open the lines for your questions.
Thank you very much for your presentation. We will now move on to the analyst Q&A session. We kindly request that only analysts ask questions during this Q&A session. All other participants are invited to contact the investor relations team following the call. Thank you for your understanding. To ensure a dynamic and interactive discussion, we encourage you to ask your questions live via audio line. To do so, please click on the Raise Your Hand button. If you have dialed in by phone, please press star nine, followed by star six to unmute. If you do not have the opportunity to speak freely today, you can also place your questions in our chat box. With this, I open the line to Stefan Scharff. You should be able to speak now.
Yeah, good morning, gentlemen. I have a couple of questions. Perhaps we do it one by one. The first question is about Mainz. You stated in your half-year report that you already sold half of the 44 flats. That was the same number or the same percentage like in the first quarter report. How is the sale process working in Mainz? Perhaps you can say a bit more here about new notary dates coming in in July and August. For the buyers, the financing is still not easy given the interest level at the moment.
Stefan, sometimes you remind me a bit of my wife. It might be because we have a long track record. You always put the finger in the wound. We have only sold two apartments in Q2, which doesn't make a difference for the 50% quote. Yes, we have reservations, as you've pointed out. We must see if they fall through or if they go through with the bank financing. For me, the interesting one on the apartment sale side, which is the positive one, is that in Germany, the Germans live up to their reputation. It seems to me as if it is a little bit a game of chicken. Who blinks first? Is it the buyers who then buy at the current prices? I've pointed out that price increases have been 3.8%. Or is it the seller who's reducing the price to get things going more smoothly?
Okay, okay. Let's hope that the interest level goes down a bit or there are some public health programs to come in the second half of the year or for 2026. My second question is about the Timber Pioneer in Frankfurt. If I'm right, there are still about 4,000 sq m to rent. How is the letting process here in Frankfurt?
Yes, you're absolutely right with the 4,000 sq m. It's no secret that we had the summer break, and in the summer months, particularly with institutional tenants, things are going slow. However, for me, it seems as if things are moving again in Germany after a pretty long [Foreign language] , whatever this is in English. I think a dry spell or something like this. Expect a positive news flow as early as next month, as early as September, because we are now end of August. I can't say no more because, as we know, it's only through when the signature is under the contract. I'm pretty confident that we make some progress both in Timber Pioneer in Frankfurt and in Timber Peak in Mainz.
Okay, I see. The next question is about your hotel segment. You had an output here of EUR 43 million after EUR 62 million in the year before, but in the year before, there was a special item by selling a share in the Andaz in Prague. Perhaps, can I have the number for 2024 without the Andaz? Because the EUR 43 million was at least more than the EUR 37 million in 2023. It might be a good development in the hotel segment.
Yeah, good question. The Andaz inside of that number, and we are talking about the total output in the two numbers with the EUR 43 million and the EUR 62 million, is roughly EUR 18 million. We are on the same level like last year, but with a very different mix when you look into the countries. Especially Poland is much better than last year. Germany, on the other side, as there was not the, I would say, extraordinary effects we have seen in 2024, like, for example, the football championship or some concerts around in the cities where we are, that has come a little bit down. Overall, we are on the same level with a different mix.
Okay, I see, I see. Perhaps once again, Mainz, if I see your pipeline, there is the Molenkopf and the Timber View. That means almost 300 apartments to come with the completion date in 2029. That's two and a half years. Construction for the next 300 apartments has to start next year, if I take it right, and if all is according to plan.
Absolutely correct. If this was the question, it's going to start then. We could probably start even a bit earlier, but as I said, at the moment the question is, who blinks first? The later you bring apartments to the market from today's point of view, the smoother probably the sale is, and that is behind it all. When it comes to Molenkopf, there is still the architectural competition that needs to be held, but it's all on track timing-wise.
Okay, I see. Another resi project, a big resi project of you, is the Bogner area in Berg am Laim in the eastern part of Munich. Perhaps you can give us here an update also about the permits and the situation?
We do have a [Foreign language], but there is an [Foreign language] . That is not to us, but to the city of Munich. We have had the opportunity to look into it, and we believe that the reasoning behind it is rather weak. We shall see what the city of Munich is going to do with this [Foreign language] , with this objection by the neighbor. There is a slight potential delay as the authority, the public authority, the city of Munich has to deal with it. I expect with the pressure that is on new apartments everywhere, and the Ministry of Construction putting a lot of pressure for good reasons and having identified this issue, we believe that the public authorities are going to deal with it smoothly.
It is a perfect example, unfortunately, that as we are at [Foreign language] , a perfect legal system, you can be held up, but you will not be able to destruct this.
Okay, I see. I see. The decision might be realistic until the end of the year?
Yeah, I expect it definitely to happen in this time frame.
Okay, thank you very much, guys.
Thank you very much for your questions, Mr. Scharff. We will move on to Simon Stippig with the phone number ending six zero zero nine. Mr. Stippig, you should be unmuting yourself now.
Hi, good morning. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have a couple of questions also. The first one would be, on the last call, you said the result, despite the reevaluation of the Amras in Innsbruck, was in line with your expectations. Is Q2 also in line with your expectations, or would you say it was a bit better than anticipated? Also, does it change your view on H2 2025 and the full year?
Yeah. Simon, very good, very good question. I personally, but then I'm the CEO, so I might be maybe a bit more ignorant. I expect it to be still slightly in the negative. Okay, the black zero is definitely coming a bit earlier than we thought. It's not changing anything of what we said about H2, which is we are returning to profitability. We haven't given a more concrete kind of number guidance on this one for good reasons because with all the uncertainties around, we don't want to break our kind of track record in when we guide, we achieve exactly what we are guiding for. That's behind it. It was slightly better than I have personally expected it. It doesn't change anything on the positive outlook for H2 in terms of pinning ourselves down more concretely.
Okay, great. Maybe one follow-up. Is it possible to carefully look into the next year already?
Well, even more difficult, you know, there's a guy who changes tariffs according to his mood. That leads to a lot of uncertainty. You've seen the nervous reaction regarding the bad decision. I don't dare to kind of make a more concrete statement than things are looking as if it's going up again, and the worst is behind us.
Okay, great. Thank you, clear. The next one would be in regard to your leasing sales and overall projects. In the residential sales, could you say what projects drove your strong result and also which projects you expect to contribute in the second half and beyond?
Sure. If we look into the total output, and that gives us a flavor of where it's coming from, 40% of what we have achieved came from the residential sector. Inside of the residential sector, that was predominantly coming from three sources. Havn has been already discussed with the main thing that this was only a bit, but it came from Leopold Quartier in Austria. It came from the Village im Dritten, also Austria. It came from the Czech Republic predominantly. What do we expect for the second half? We expect that we go on with the Leopold Quartier, which is currently in the erection phase and is quite good in picking up sales. The Village im Dritten will also contribute to the overall output. In the Czech Republic, we have started a project called Na Plzeňce, which is running super well in terms of pre-sales.
When we come into the erection phase, we will also see from this one quite a good impact on the numbers. These are basically the sources where we think the good numbers should come from. We also expect that we get into a slightly better position in Germany soon.
Okay, great.
It looks, sorry for jumping in there. I mean, there is a consensus throughout any of the statistical authorities that by 2028, we are lacking 800,000 apartments. Come on. I mean, how long do you want to wait, particularly if you know that the prices of the apartments have risen already? A perfectly good indication for me is a market in which we are not active, which is the single-family houses. They have increased in prices even by more than 6%, according to my recollection. It's going to happen. The question is just when, and I don't buy into the financing is so difficult. I more see people to change very slowly and adapt very slowly.
Okay, great. Thank you. Sorry.
Mr. Stippig, does that answer your questions?
Yeah, that absolutely answered my question. I have one follow-up in that regard because, I mean, if we see that supply-demand imbalance and a huge gap, would it also be, or do you consider to replan projects from office or light industrial towards residential? Would that be an idea, or is it just that margins are still too attractive going forward in the office and light industrial segment?
Look, we are considering this, and of course, that breakdown, which currently is 60% in resi and 40% in light industrial and office, is strongly driven by, you know, if we, say, hypothetically, would find a single tenant for an office or a light industrial building, then we would go full steam into it because that is the key question. You know, how do we make our office project generate a cash flow? The moment we see this, this is fine. You're absolutely right. We are still thinking, you know, is it making sense to maybe even apply for a rezoning in the one or other project? Usually, the zoning is the issue, and usually, or so far, zoning has to be a cumbersome, fairly long process.
I hope, as we see these exceptions that the Ministry of Construction has announced, that that might be a good option, still thinking of, you know, how to keep a balanced portfolio so that we don't rely too much only on one source of income.
Great, that answered my question. Maybe a quick one in regard to your hotel potential sales of your Kempinski Jochberg Hotel. Do you have any update there, and is that also already included in your H2 2025 guidance?
Yes, I have a quick answer on this one. We've granted exclusivity to one party, so we've narrowed down the sales process. Do not expect anything before year end, and that's already optimistic to a certain extent because we don't want to negotiate under pressure. A contract is only signed, and in this case, as it is a project that is already up and running, also closed when the signatures are dry under the contract.
Okay, and one last one in regard to your project. The Timber Pioneer, you changed it into your segment of standing assets. As I recall correctly, in one of the last conference calls, you also mentioned that you would like to refinance this project and potentially maybe you get some equity out of the project or at least cash. Can you just give an update there? Did you progress with this financing, or have you had different plans?
No different plans. We progressed quite well with the financing. We expect that to come in the third quarter. When we have the ink dried under it, maybe in the next call we have together on the third quarter, I can give more flavor on this one because I recall what we have said when it comes to the office part, that in the phase where sales might not pick up to an extent, we expect, and the values which are offered are not living up to our expectations, it might be a good bridging. I recall this one. The Timber Pioneer, hopefully, I can present that next time as the solution. Yes, you are right. What we are trying to achieve is to get a part of our equity out of it.
Great, thank you. Last one, apologies for so many questions. Last one is in regard to your hotel leasing business. I saw in the notes that you sold 49% of it. Could you add some information to the disposal?
Yes. As an interest statement, we love your questions because it shows that there is enough interest on us, and particularly you, Simon, prove it with your research. There are not too many questions there, maybe too little questions. When it comes to the 49% sale, yes, our former partner, [Mitsitsia], wanted to exit, and we found a new partner, and I think there is nothing more to add. We won't change anything with the operations.
Great, that answered my question. Thank you very much.
Thank you,
And thank you again for your questions.
Thank you, Mr. Stippig. We have one more hand up from Philip Hettich. The line is yours.
Hi, good morning. Thanks a lot. I hope you can hear me.
Yes.
Loud and clear, loud and clear.
Perfect, perfect. Thanks for the presentation. My first question would be, I just came out of the CA Immo conference call, and they were talking about that lead times have extended significantly in the signing of office leases. Is that something that you have also experienced, and what do you think is the reason behind it? They are talking that lead times went up from around four months, from the first discussion until the signing of the final lease agreement, to around eight months now.
Basically, that's the story that I've been telling when I've answered Stefan's questions. I even think that the number of months could be more like nine, 10 months. What is the reason behind it? You have one competitor, which is very difficult to beat in times of uncertainty, which is your current landlord. Even though there is no way around renting new offices, if you want to convince your people to return to your office for more than one or two days a week, there is always the situation that the current landlord knows that if his tenant is leaving, he's probably got a vacancy rate that is shooting through the roof. He's almost prepared to do everything, I mean, everything, to keep his tenant. It needs twice as much effort than it used to need to kind of, you know, outline the advantages that you have to offer.
This is even true if some have double, okay, the [Foreign language], the operating costs, than what we are offering. Because in most cases that we are offering, our [Foreign language] , our operating contribution is less than EUR 5 a sq m. We've come across more than EUR 10 a sq m quite often. The current landlords are prepared to take and swallow this disadvantage. For me, the question is, how long can they afford to do so? Full agreement, as usual, I'm pretty much aligned with CA Immo and Keegan on this one, and we can confirm that. This is why you keep on asking, "Have you made progress?" This is why we apologetically always have to say, "We've made progress, but nothing, you know, to write home about."
Understand, understand. I had a slight disconnection, so sorry if I ask a question that might have been asked already. I mean, there's another office development on Franz- Josefs- Bahnhof, around Franz- Josefs- Bahnhof in Wien. Do you have information how that is going? Do they face similar difficulties to lease out, or is the situation different there? Do you know that?
Yeah, you're referring to Althan Quartier . We have no clear information because, as you know, this had a change in ownership. That disconnected us a little bit. I suppose it's the same for everyone. The reason behind it is the kind of pretty soft economy that we are seeing. I mean, put yourself into the shoes of a Supervisory Board member whose approach of changing offices with all the " soft factors". I need to bring my people back. I need to be able to compete with work from home. I need to offer a different zoning. I need to really seduce, probably the wrong word, my people to come back. I don't want to force them back to the office, but I can't tell them that returning to the same old single-room office is not the right thing. What is the Supervisory Board member saying?
Hey, aren't you reading any newspapers? I mean, economy is going lousy. Stay where you are. Try to push the current landlord to reduce your rent, which he often does, and come back to me in half a year. That is the situation that we see in Austria. That is the situation that we see in Germany. It would be very surprising for me if the Althan Quartier owners would be any better off. As I said, I have no information on it.
Okay, I understand. One question on the cost side. Personnell cost, how does it develop? How do you expect it to develop for the remainder of the year? I think the run rate, if we use H1, would be around EUR 26 million for the full year. Do you think this will come down in the second half and support your result?
I mean, on the personnel cost side, we see two things kicking in. One is, if you compare it to last year, you will see that it increased a bit. That had to do with accruals. This year, you are quite okayish when you are saying, "I'm just taking the first half and make my math to the second half." What I expect a bit is that we see more and more kicking in that we reduced the number of persons in our group. That might be giving us a little bit of tailwind when it comes to the second half. If you are very conservative, I would say you double it. If you give us the advantage that we have done our homework also in terms of numbers of people we have on board.
Unfortunately, I have to say, did our homework, then we might see a little bit of a better thing in the second half than the first half.
Okay, okay, understood. Thanks a lot. That would be it for myself for today.
Okay, thank you, Philip, for your questions.
Thank you, Mr. Hettich. With this, we come to the end of today's earnings call. Thank you, everyone, for joining and your shown interest in UBM Development AG. Should further questions arise at a later time, please feel free to contact investor relations. A big thank you also to you, Mr. Winkler and Mr. Thate, for your presentation and the time you took to answer all the questions. I wish you all a lovely and successful day and stay safe. With this, I hand over again to Mr. Winkler for some final remarks.
Judith, you make it very difficult for me to add anything, so nothing to add, but have a lovely late summer. Let's get things going. I think there are good indications why they could be moving the right direction, which is up and only up. Thank you and goodbye.