Good day, everyone, and welcome to the voestalpine AG First Half of 2023/2024 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Peter Fleischer. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you very much, and good afternoon, and a warm welcome to today's Webex and conference call, about the first half of our business year 2023/24. Before we start, a quick technical remark. If you can see us, you are in the Webex. If you want to ask a question, you have to dial into the telephone conference call, as well as the Webex is a one-way communication line, of course. Regarding the procedure today, right next to me is our CEO, Herbert Eibensteiner, and our CFO, Robert Ottel, who will give you a quick overview of the highlights, what has happened in the first half, and a short outlook on how far and what we expect for the remaining business year, which will last around 15 minutes, I guess. Afterwards, we are happy to answer your questions.
Let me now turn over to Mr. Eibensteiner.
Yeah, good afternoon. Very warm welcome to our conference call of our first half year. Let me start with the highlights. I think you're well aware that the measures of the central banks affect the European economy in the course of this first half of our business year. So the results were declining industry investments, lower consumer spendings, and we saw also a decline in the service sector. We see a lower demand in the first half of the year from the construction industry, from mechanical engineering sector, and also from the consumer goods sectors. On the other hand, we see, compared to last year, improved automotive production due to the better supply chains.
What's very positive is and was the demand from the energy sector and also from the aerospace sector, and railway systems was performing very well. So compared to Europe, the North American economy was a bit more resilient, and we saw satisfactory demand for most of our voestalpine sites in the USMCA, and also a smaller market for us. But despite all this environment there in high inflation and high interest rates, we saw a very solid, very solid development, and those sites benefited from the boom in the photovoltaic sector, and also from a strong demand in the energy sector.
In Asia, in particular, in China, we see, after the positive reopening effects, a loss of momentum. But, all in all, we have to say that voestalpine sites, in Asia and also in China, have, more or less, a stable development. Let me come to the four divisions. I would like to start with steel. A very solid performance, I would say, in the first half of the year, although the steel environment was, all in all, very complex and difficult. As I mentioned before, especially building construction, building and construction, mechanical engineering, and white goods, in particular, were suffering from the economic slowdown.
On the other hand, we see positive, stable demand from the automotive sector, which is a very important part of our business in the Steel Division. And also in the heavy plate mill, we see a very good landscape coming from the energy sector. And we can say that the order book for this special cladded material for the energy sector is very good. When it comes to High Performance Metals Division, we saw a weakening situation in the course of the first half year and especially in tool steel business, and here, in particular, in Europe. And on the other hand, we see these positive trends in special materials and also in the aerospace business.
Our best division, I would say, or best performing division, was Metal Engineering, as I mentioned before, and I touched it also in the course of last year, that we see a very positive development in our railway systems business for the first half of this year. Seamless business, which was very, very good and booming last year, is, I would say, back to normal levels. Also welding performed relatively stable on a good, solid level, and only wire is really weakening due to the slowdown of mechanical engineering, consumer goods business, and also in the building industry. Metal Forming benefited also from the improvement in the automotive components business compared to last year.
Tubes & S ections, after a very good development in the last year, shows again solid development. Also, we see a declining demand in some areas, and weaker is Precision Strip, and we see there are challenging market conditions, especially in the material for saw steel, weaker than last year. Ongoing positive is the project business in Warehouse & R ack Solutions. And also here, we have good order books, also for the remainder of the year and also for next year. So after the short presentation of the divisions, I will hand over to Robert Ottel for the figures.
Yeah, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for taking part on that presentation. I will guide you through the figures of the first half of this business year in comparison to the last business year. You see that the last business year was an extraordinary good one, and in comparison to that, normalization of the business has shown a decrease in the revenue figure, which is two-third volume driven and one-third price driven. If you go down further, the profit and loss, you see at the EBITDA and EBIT figure that there has also been a decline in the economy. Roughly, one could say it's three reasons for that decline in the profit figures.
It's one-third is the lower gross margin, one-third is lower volume sold, and one-third is real cost inflation, which we have been facing throughout the last 12 months. Please be aware, in comparison of those figures, if you compare EBIT of both half years and EBIT, there's a difference in the last half year. We have had an impairment loss booked on the High Performance Metals Division in last year. Therefore, the difference between EBIT is bigger than is vice versa because of that impairment loss of EUR 173 million in last year. What we also can see is in the comparison, the increased interest rate we have been faced. The interest burden last year was approximately EUR 50 million, and this year, EUR 90 million for the half year.
So that's not because of the increased net debt, because we have decreased, because it's the interest rate, mainly on the, on the factoring volume and the bills of exchange. For the full year, I would expect to be the, the interest burden, the half year of this year, times two. Tax rate, quite normally between 23%-24%. Also, for the full year, I would expect the tax rate to be 24%. If one looks at the walk between these two, half years, you can see the price decrease and the raw materials, getting cheaper. So in total, the gross margin, worsened by EUR 153 million, and that is not only mainly, but more than that, is within the steel division. Steel division, from the gross margin decrease, has had a minus of EUR 330 million.
But that was balanced, in fact, by already mentioned, very well business in the Metal Engineering Division, especially in the oil country tubular goods and also in the railway systems. The Metal Engineering had an increase of gross margin by EUR 166 million. The big hit in the volume is within the High Performance Metals Division. EUR 170 million out of that 182 have been in the High Performance Metals Division. And the miscellaneous is what I already mentioned, a big bunch of cost inflation at a lot of points in the group. Also, the cash flow development in comparison is a bit difficult to explain. Last half year was marked, on the one hand, by the Ukraine war, the energy crisis, so, big efforts of my colleagues, operational colleagues, to ensure production.
So we had to invest in working capital in the last, last year, on the one hand. On the other hand, also price, obviously, it was price and volume-driven. On the other hand, we had the sale of the stake in the Texas, therefore, the cash flow from investing was positive. So coming to this year's cash flow statement from the half year, obviously, the profits coming down also reduced the cash flow from results. We had only a investment in working capital in the first half year of EUR 280 million. That is quite, quite low. Normally, we have a counter effect to the year-end, which is higher, so we already decreased working capital, but nevertheless, there is that effect remaining.
In the investing activities, almost EUR 500 million. I think for the full year, that figure will be more than doubled. So I would guess we will end up at somewhere around EUR 1.1 billion of investing. And so for working capital, I think for the second half year, we will see quite a release of working capital. So for full year, we will have a positive figure from working capital, although that depends a little bit on how strong the demand, especially in the fourth quarter, will be from our customers and how much we will pull from our stocks. So for the full year, personally, I would guess somewhere around EUR 400 million-EUR 500 million, dependent on customer demand.
Coming to the last chart, is the development of the gearing ratio over, let's say, the last 20 years. It also marks a little bit the time frame of my appointment at voestalpine. What you can see in the right-hand side, on the gray column, is that we already have in the half year figure, although we had a dividend and a share buyback totaled almost EUR 300 million on dividend and share buyback for our shareholders. We have a record figure in equity of EUR 7.8 million, and always it's in the first half of the year paying dividends. Second half of the year will further increase that equity figure, and the same accounts for the gearing. I think we will end up somewhere around 20%.
So let me add some personal remarks over that 20 years, because today is the last time we will see on this occasion. So these 20 years you see on the chart, they have been challenging, successful, and also joyful for me. One can see the big China-driven economy on the first part of that period, then our acquisition of voestalpine, the increase, the steep increase in leverage. Then, during Lehman, the takeout financing and the refinancing, then some up and downs, the projects in Romania and Texas for the steel and so on. So during that time, voestalpine has quadrupled the equity and has quadrupled sales, so quite successful time.
I think it's the company's, with that, financial health, well-positioned for the future growth and also for the challenges of the transition. I also want to express my gratitude and say goodbye to you, investors and analysts. It has been an incredible journey, those 20 years, and I'm honored to have shared that with you. But first and foremost, I want to thank each and every one of you for your unwavering support and trust in our company. Your investments, your investment insights, have been instrumental in our growth and success over those 20 years. Your valuable perspectives have guided us in making informed decisions, hopefully, most informed decisions, and I'm confident that the new leadership will continue to rely on your expertise. So please share, also in the future, these expertise.
I bid farewell to this chapter of my life. I do so with optimism for the future. First, voestalpine is well-positioned to continue its growth and transition, and I have no doubt that you will all witness even greater success in the coming years without me. I look forward to seeing our company prosper under new leadership, and I will always cherish the memories and relationships built during this incredible journey. So thank you once again for your trust, support, and collaboration. Farewell, and best wishes for the future. Thank you.
So, thank you, Robert. I would come to the outlook for the remainder of the year. I think it's clear that this forecasted slowdown finally arrived in some of our business segments. And, I would say that the second half of the year is according to this previous forecast, and we think that we will see this continuation of the actual trends. That means that we expect the ongoing lower demand from the building and construction industry, from the mechanical engineering sector, and also from the consumer goods industry.
We expect that automotive industry will stay more or less on current levels, and the demand from the conventional energy sector should stay on good levels. Also, we see a normalization coming from very excellent figures, and renewable energy will stay on very good levels and will show a very strong performance. Railway systems is good. Good also, I would say also in the next business year, what we can expect is a normal seasonal better pattern over the winter season, but that's normal. But again, the demand is very good.
Order book is also very good, and also aerospace in industry will continue with the very positive trends. It means, all in all, our assumption for the coming quarters are more or less in line with the expectation at the beginning of the year. However, from today's perspective, we see the development in Europe is somewhat weaker, and this is the reason why our forecast is now on the lower end of the expected range from EUR 1.7 billion-EUR 1.9 billion. So around, we expect around EUR 1.7 billion in EBITDA, so far.
So, ladies and gentlemen, this was a very brief presentation about the figures, the first half of the year, the different sectors, and also our forecast. We are happy to answer your questions.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. Again, that is the star key, if you have a question or comment. You are joining us using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, that is the star key followed by the digit one. We'll pause for just a moment. We have your first caller in the queue. We'll hear from Alain Gabriel from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon, gentlemen. I have two questions, and I'll ask them one at a time. So firstly, on the automotive end markets, automotive is one of your most important end markets, and contract negotiations are in full swing. How do you see demand evolving into calendar year 2024, if you don't mind elaborating a bit more? And what are you budgeting in terms of volume growth or contract, or contraction? And how are the contract negotiations looking into, well, as you head into the negotiating period? That's my first question. Thank you.
As I mentioned before, we do not see an improvement in the automotive sector, but also no decline. So, you know, we are on a better level than the last year, but far away from the pre-COVID figures. I think that it will be a stable development also into next year. What we see is that some of our customers are more optimistic, some are less optimistic. So it depends on the models they are working on. But when we look at the steel division and also the other divisions, we are very broad.
We have a very broad market view, delivering from the steel division to all European producers in this market. For us, we would say, we expect a relatively stable development on the existing level. To your second question, it's a bit early to talk about the negotiations for the next year. What we see at the moment is there is an improving sentiment in the spot market. When you look at the US, it's more demand driven. In Europe at the moment, I would say, sentiment driven.
We see the first signs that there is a restocking in some areas. But this can be positive. But on the other hand, as I mentioned before, it's a bit early and for this negotiations for the first January.
Thank you. And my second question is around your decarbonization plans. Can you remind us how much you are spending on decarb this year and next, next current, next business year, out of your total CapEx budget? And generally speaking, how is the progress going on the ground with your construction works? Thank you.
I think this year, we spent roughly EUR 200 million of CapEx. And, you know, that the figure till 2027 is around EUR 1.5 billion. So you can divide this figure by another 5 years. So, that's roughly the figure. In average, I would say, in average, what is the additional CapEx for this decarbonization project. And, so far, we do the preparation works for the start of the project. We have placed orders for equipment in Donawitz, and we are working on the final negotiations in Linz.
Thank you.
I could add some flavor to that. I think if you look at the investment figures of the next years, and you take, let's say, the EUR 1 billion we have as depreciation level, approximately, you will see, and that's coming from that, EAF investments. You will see a peak in the investments, most probably in the coming business year, so 2024, 2025 and 2025, 2026. And then again, decreasing towards that level, when the EAF's normal level of EUR 1 billion, when the EAFs are finished. So it's a really a peak of investment for 2024, 2025 and 2025, 2026, where we reach most probably a EUR 350 million-EUR 400 million in every of that year for the EAFs.
Very clear. Thank you.
We move next to Patrick Mann from Bank of America.
Thank you very much and good day, folks. I wanted to ask, just in terms of the guidance being loaded, you know, tightened towards the bottom end of your previous range. Is there any specific end market or products that you've lowered your expectations for, or is it across the board? And then is it price or volume driven or both? That's the first question. And then the second question, I just wanted to ask, if there is no agreement between the EU and the U.S. on Section 232 tariffs coming back into play by the end of the year, is there an impact on voestalpine's business, and what would that be? Thank you.
As I mentioned before in the forecast and in the guidance, is that we see that Europe is a bit weaker than originally expected. Also there are no really positive effects in the very difficult segments in building, mechanical engineering, and also in consumer goods, white goods, and so on. I think that's that was the reason that we see more the actual forecast is that it's more on the lower end of the original guidance. And I think it's both, as your question is, it's volume driven in some areas, High Performance Metals, but also price driven in some areas.
We think that we can remain with the very positive segments on a very solid level, but we see no improvement in the weaker segments. I think that so far the actual agreement with the U.S. is positive for us, is positive for us. And if there is no agreement, we hope we can maintain the actual situation. What we do in between, it allows to apply for exemptions of our products. This is what we are still doing. And so far, we think that we can keep the actual situation.
When it comes to a change, it's also the steel business is mostly affected. And as far as I can remember, the former cost of the input duties were around EUR 30 million per year.
Thank you very much.
I have to add that the former situation in the OCTG business was that we mainly exported to North America, so a big portion of our exports, especially to U.S., have been affected by that tariffs. And we are now shifting more and more, and also due to the economic situation in the drilling away from North America, more towards Middle East. So the effect would be lower than in the last time.
Thanks. That's very clear. Thank you.
We'll hear next from Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas.
Yes, hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe a quick follow-up on the contracts. I understand that the annual negotiation, it's a little bit early, but I do remember that a small portion of your contracts are actually reset in September, October. And for those one, have you been able to keep them stable on a sequential basis? If not, how much you kinda have had to concede on price? That'd be my first question.
Yeah. Yes, there have been negotiations in the last weeks. Obviously, all the... When you have a year figure, a year contract, you have to decrease the price of your products. Although, I think we never opened that up to the public, how much that was, because it would also hurt the negotiations with other customers following in the autumn. But, I would say, one can guess that we cannot avoid the market situation, but due to our contract situation, the volatility of pricing and of profits are lower. So in a downturn, we have a better profit margin and better profits than competitors who are more spot market-driven. And in the upturn, we are lagging behind.
So, you can derive from spot market development of the last year, something around where we have negotiation at the moment.
All right. That's very clear and helpful. My other question is on China. You flagged the negative impact from higher Chinese exports, notably for your tool business. We've seen steel exports up quite a bit this year as well. I would like to have your thought, how do you believe this current situation is different in any way from what we saw in 2015, 2016? Is China becoming a more significant threat for your businesses, as they no longer just export steel, but also machine, et cetera? And I'm notably referring, for instance, to the auto trade case initiated in Europe. Would love to have you thought there.
Yeah, I think that we, yes, we have this negative impact from the tool steel business in Europe. But what we see is the competition in Europe very high. This is not only imported, it's also in the EU, a high competition. On the other hand, we see that although the Chinese economy is weaker compared to the production of steel, and this export efforts China is doing at the moment is affecting the whole Asian markets and also the European markets.
What I can say is that we have in Europe the safeguard measures implemented and with an upper limit as far as steel imports are concerned. And I think we are used to this situation also with lower demand and lower production in Europe. It's not positive so far, but there is no systematic change in this actual import situation because of these safeguard measures. And yes, you mentioned the situation in automotive. I think we saw that in the past also with Toyota, Nissan, and other Korean OEMs in Europe.
I think, for us, is, automotive business, for the next years, clear we produce for our, customers, in the U.S., and also, and follow them, and also in, in China. But on the long run, we will see, if, we see, production here in Europe. And, the latest announcement, is that, BYD, is planning, a production, production site in Hungary. So I think we will see the same, the same, model, as, 10, 20 years ago, when the, the, Asian, Asian companies, OEMs, are coming, to the E.U.
All right. That's, that's very clear and helpful. No, that's it, that's it for me. And of course, I just wanted to, to wish Mr. Otto all, all the best for the future. Thank you.
Thank you.
We'll hear next from Bastian Synagowitz from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon, all. Bastian from Deutsche here. So my first question is on steel, please. And you mentioned that cladded plate keeps doing very well. I guess if we look at your shipment number for plate, though, I think the numbers you reported were well below your total capacity. So maybe you can update us on how you expect both volumes and also the earnings contribution in plate to trend over the next couple of quarters. That is my first question.
Yes, you are right that we are produced below our full capacity. So we concentrate on this high quality parts of this plate business. And especially for the mechanical engineering business, we see a decline in demand, and this was the reason why we see the shipments numbers are lower than the quarters before. But I think that's normal, that we follow the demand in those sectors. But what we can say that especially this cladded business is very strong and will also contribute to our margins most also in the rest of this business year and also for the next years.
And if you look at your order book and that run rate, is the contribution gonna be stable, or is it gonna be up, or is it gonna be down? How is it gonna trend?
You know, I would say, we are a bit down, compared to last year, but, I think with this, good, order book in cladded material, we, we think that we are, around the actual, we can expect, roughly stable, stable figure, from this actual, from this actual, level. When it comes to cladded material, what we see is that, plate, heavy plate in other segments, will be a bit lower, but the higher margin, higher margin, will mostly compensate that lower volume.
May I add some a little bit of flavor with figures to the plate business? So if you compare the contribution and profit of the heavy plate business this half year with the last half year, it has come down. That is because of the lower volume in normal plate. So, and that is, although the cladded plate is doing well, and if you jump off this half year to the future, it will be more or less the same. So we have a decrease in the contribution of the heavy plate in the last half year. So first half of the year 2022/23 of EUR 80 million, and this year it's approximately EUR 14 million lower.
That will be the run rate for the profit for the next quarters and half years.
Mm-hmm. Okay. Thank you.
Ongoing weakness on normal plate, but ongoing strong development in cladded plate. That contribution margin we're missing from the normal plate, that is, will be missing also in the next quarters.
Mm-hmm. Okay. Thank you. Then, Mr. Ottel, probably one more for you. Can you please confirm whether the EUR 400 million-EUR 500 million working capital release, which you mentioned earlier, is that what you expect for the second half, or do you expect that for the full year? Just to be 100% clear on that.
So it's expected for the second half of the year. So for the full year, I would expect a working capital release of approximately EUR 200 million, because we have invested 280 or something in the first half of the year. So the second half is approximately EUR 500 million release. But the EUR 500 million, EUR 400 million-EUR 500 million, what you mentioned, was the free cash flow what I would personally expect for the full year. Was that clear enough?
I think-
Or was that more complicated than it should be?
No, no, you at least, you've at least confused me a little bit versus what I think is stated in your Q&A summary on the web. Because I think there it says that you expect a free cash flow of EUR 300 million, but you in fact expect a free cash flow of more like EUR 400 million-EUR 500 million?
Yeah. That's why I stated it as a personal opinion, because I want you in the call. And, you know, it's after 20 years of experience, I developed a personal opinion. But I also stated that that will be dependent on market conditions, especially also in the high performance metals, because they are building up stock due to the run up of the new steel mill. And then the question is, how strong the demand in the tool steel is to pull off that stock in the first calendar quarter. So that is what I'm not sure about, because that is a special situation. But personally, I would expect that EUR 400 million-EUR 500 million.
Got you. Okay, now that's very clear.
So the conservative-
Yeah. Yeah, that's definitely EUR 300 million is the conservative version, and the EUR 400 million-EUR 500 million is the one which we'll get if, yeah, I guess, if market maybe turns, turns the way you you benefit from.
You know, I haven't got to deliver that figure because I'm off the company then.
Yeah, of course. No, I appreciate that. And, in that context, I wish you all the best for your next steps as well from my end.
Yeah. Thank you.
We'll move next to Andrew Jones from UBS.
Hi, gents, and yeah, thanks for taking questions. I've just got a couple. Basically, what's factored into that, that low end of guidance for EUR 1.7 billion? Because, I mean, are you assuming that we're gonna see a continued price recovery from here to get to that point? Or, you know, if spot price for steel stay around these levels and raw material costs stay elevated and spreads stay around where they are now in the spot market, is that, are we likely to come in below that without a price recovery? And then just on a sort of slightly related question, you talked about auto demand being broadly stable going forward. We've seen the OEM order books contracting pretty sharply year to date. I wouldn't have thought that would have fed through fully into steel demand at this point.
So, I mean, what's your assessment of that? I mean, how at what point do those order books, those lower order books translate into weaker steel demand? I mean, is that already in your second quarter numbers, which to be fair, were pretty strong in steel over there? Or should we see that hit you on a lag in the coming quarters? I'll leave it there. Thanks.
When it comes to the auto demand, what we hear from our customers, as I mentioned before, is that they do not expect an improvement. But the most of them and most of the customers we deliver to, is, is the opinion that there are plans on the actual level when it comes to a collapse in the automotive industry in the next business year, then I would say a time lag is always, I would say, we are directly delivering to the OEMs in components that's relatively quickly in our books. And when we look at the consignment stocks, we don't expect a stop, this will take longer.
Okay. On the guidance and if we need to see a steel price recovery?
No, I would say that we, as I mentioned before, the lowering of the guidance is mostly coming from the European market, and we do not really... I think you mean steel?
Yeah, I'm basically asking, do steel prices need to rise to hit that EUR 1.7 billion? Or could you do that with spot prices for both steel and raw materials, where they are now?
Yeah. Maybe I try and answer to your question. I think the... From starting from where we are, I think in the forecast, there's no recovery included.
Okay.
In the other side, if you look at, especially in the flat steel, the contribution, in the first half of the year compared to the second half of the year, there will be also a contraction even. So there's no, no increase in steel price or price recovery included, it's vice versa. We have some increase in profitability in the high performance metals, because they have been hit in the second quarter. But in the flat steel, well, I think you are talking about there's no price recovery included in the forecast. It's even a contraction, which is due to the fact of our long-term contracts having that time lag. So it's not a market contraction, but it's a contractual situation where we see that contraction in margins. Does that answer your question a little bit?
Yeah, that's clear. And just actually, another question. Some of your personal opinion, the price recovery we've seen in the last week, I mean, is this the start of a restocking cycle in your view? And you know, how do you assess the inventory levels that you're seeing at your direct customers? And do you think they really need to restock now, or is it, you know, likely to be a bit more of a muted effect?
Yeah, I think that's a very new situation. What we see there is the good, better demand and higher prices in the US. I think it's quite new that in the European market, also for us, what we see is that we think that some of our customers think that the price levels are bottomed out and it won't get cheaper.
We know that in some areas we are at the end of the destocking effect, and there is a need for restocking in some areas, and maybe it's also driven by speculation a little bit, thinking that well, the prices won't get cheaper. And this is at the moment our assessment because this increase is more sentiment driven and also cost driven from the production plants. And, you know, you know, a lot of capacity is idled in Europe. So we have a situation that we won't see lower steel prices in the next month.
This is the reason why we see an improvement or a recovery in prices in the last weeks.
May I add two, two thoughts about that? I think what we also see is a little bit an increase in raw material prices, and on the other hand, a decrease in imports to Europe. And that are also two, two effects which could lead also to a rethinking of the traders, that, that they are, like, already mentioned, building their stock again or not speculating on a further downturn. But it's, it's not clear to ourselves whether that will be structural or just a short-time effect. It, it could turn out to be both of that. We are not sure about it.
Hmm. No, that, that makes sense. Okay, thanks very much, and best of luck for the future, Robert, and yeah, enjoy your, your retirement.
Thank you.
We'll hear next from Moses Ola from JP Morgan.
Hi, everyone. Thank you very much for taking my questions. So I have three questions, if I may. The first two, quick-fire ones. So, firstly, just on capacity curtailment, as you just mentioned, there had been reports that you had plans to delay the restart of your Blast Furnace #5 at Linz. Could you please confirm if that is still the case? And if there is a delay to the restart of that blast furnace, are you sufficiently stocked on the slabs, or do you have to build any additional inventories into 2024?
Our Blast Furnace 5 is up and running and on time. We had no delays of the restart. The second question is next, for next year? I didn't really get the second part of your question.
I think it was on. I think I don't know the reports about delays of the restart of the blast furnace. So we haven't had any problems, any delays, so it's up and running. So that is misinformation. Sorry.
Okay, thank you very much for that. The other quick-fire one, so net financial cost guidance is increased. What is a reasonable assumption here in the coming financial years, especially with higher for longer interest rates?
Like I already mentioned, I think the interest burden will be approximately double the figure we have in this year for the full year, and that will more or less be the same for the next years. Because the increase of the interest burden is not due to the long-term financing of the group, because that is really long term. So that has no effect, but it's more on the one hand on social burdens and on IFRS effect, on the one hand, on the other hand, it's the interest burden on the factoring and the bills of exchange, which has already been increased. So that is the guidance also for the next year. Second half, like the first half, next year, like this year.
Depending on what, where the ECB is taking the interest, the short term. But under the assumption it would stay on that level, it would be the next. If it decreases, then it would decrease. Understood? Was that clear or complicated, too complicated?
No, that's clear. Thank you. And then just finally, so on phase one of greentec steel, could you please just remind us on what's currently secured for the production of green steel at those sites, including the requirements for HBI scrap, as well as green electricity being secured for phase one at that site currently?
Yes, I think we have this long-term contract concerning HBI with our 20% share of the Texas plant. In Austria, there is a high percentage of green energy available. I think that's very positive. Scrap is in development, I would say we have secured a high percentage of our scrap demand. You know, because we have our automotive business, we have created closed loops with our customers, and we deliver the coils and get back the scrap. So this is ongoing, ongoing, ongoing business. From today's perspective, I think we have mostly secured all our needs for this first step of greentec steel.
Okay, brilliant. Thank you very much.
We'll move next to Markus Remis from RBI.
Yeah, good afternoon. A question related to the situation in Kapfenberg, and I'd be interested to get a sense of the cost impact of the ramp up and say the parallel production in the two plants. If you could maybe shed some light on the H1 impact and also give an idea of what to expect for the second half. That will be the first one.
I haven't a clear figure of the cost, but it's clear that it's more expensive to run two sites. What we can say that we closed the old factory at the end of September. So we will only see in the third quarter the additional costs and see in the first quarter the last quarter of the business year no additional costs from the old factory.
It's the real double costs, which will go away again. It's approximately EUR 10 million for the full year, EUR 10 million-EUR 15 million. What is staying is the higher depreciation level.
That's clear.
Yeah, sure. Okay, thank you. That's very helpful. And then, on to Cartersville. Can you provide us a status quo update on how the operating performance of the plant is, maybe indicate that the utilization rates also, yeah, from the issues in the past. Is everything fully on track in line with the targeted, and, yeah, return profile?
Automotive components business is positive. Cartersville is still negative. So far, we are running on a normal utilization rate, and we have to negotiate old contracts with our customer, with our customers. So this is not finished, not finished yet, but without this price increase, we are negative.
All right. So it still has kind of a legacy effect of old contracts, and you would say that the operating efficiency is generally okay, and in line with what you are targeting, or, I don't know, is also some-
The utilization rate has improved performance also a bit better. But we see that because of the increased costs we have in inflation costs.
Mm.
So this is what we have to renegotiate with our customers, and as I mentioned before, not finished yet.
Okay. All right. Thank you much for that.
At this time, there are no additional callers in the queue. Let's turn the conference back over to your host for any additional closing comments.
Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for the very interesting discussion and for your time today. I wish you a wonderful rest of the day, and if you come up any questions, please feel free to give either Gerald or myself a call. Thank you very much and goodbye.
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