Welcome to the voestalpine AG first through third quarter FY 2022/2023 conference call.
Morning, ladies and gentlemen.
Today's conference is being recorded.
Welcome to today's results presentation of our third quarter, respectively, of the first 9 months of our current business year, 2022/2023. I have with me our CEO, Herbert Eibensteiner, who will give you a brief overview on what happened in the first 9 months and the outlook also on the remaining business year and on what we can see from here. Thank you very much. Herbert, please go ahead.
Thank you. Thank you, Peter. Good morning or good afternoon to everybody. Let me start with the group highlights in Q3, because it was especially relevant for us. Q3 was quite difficult, driven by really poor economic sentiment. There were fears that the strong recession will remain or will come in Europe. In addition, because of working capital and destocking activities, we were in such a destocking cycle, all our customers as well, and that in a environment with reduced demand. In North America, you know that the high interest rates were lowering the economic development.
China, I would say the expiring of the COVID measures was I think a positive, a positive decision of the government. This infection wave has and will also in the actual quarter impacting the economic activity. This is part of the outlook, but with a chance of a quicker recovery afterwards. Nevertheless, in our product portfolio, we saw a very solid development, and the focus on high quality product and also to a certain extent, the longer contract business was positive. We have very strong, very stable parts of our business sectors.
Very strong was energy sector here in especially OCTG business was really excellent with higher pricing. All the other parts of this sector, even photovoltaic was quite good. We saw a further positive development in aerospace business. This is our very positive and stable business segment, railway infrastructure was very strong coming from good demand of rails in Europe and switches, switch system worldwide. Storage technology, very solid, very long order book, still very stable. Automotive, a big sector of voestalpine, was largely stable, I would say, on a moderate level.
The hopes that the supply chain topics would be solved, I think that was not the case, I would say. That's why we were on a very moderate level and maybe with the exemption of China, and construction industry slowed down and also consumer goods extended their very weak demand. Mechanical engineering, I would like to add, was still good because of a very strong order books of our customers so far. Let me come to the very positive figures. Revenue up 29%. EBITDA from quarter three last year to this year, from EUR 1.5 billion- EUR 1.9 billion.
EBITDA margin a bit lower, and EBIT also increase of 19%. With a lower margin. I come to this profit after tax from EUR 700- EUR 860, which is again, up 24% and earnings per share from EUR 3.8- 4.7 EUR. These are the figures, and I think everything is green. What is not so positive for us is our working capital situation. Peter Fleischer will lead you through the EBITDA walk and then present you our working capital situation in detail.
Thank you very much, Herbert. Just a quick remark on where the really very good results come from. You can see on the year-over-year comparison EBITDA walk, you can see that it was not a perfect volume year. We lost earnings, we lost EBITDA by mix and volume, that was mostly volume, I have to say. Mix was actually pretty good. The real big positive from this slide is shown between price and raw materials. You can see here that we were able to compensate, or I would say even overcompensate, the real dramatic high raw materials and energy prices. That led ultimately to this very high EBITDA figure.
I think, also this is what usually CPG companies are doing in an inflationary environment, that's exactly what we have done here, what we've shown in this, in this past quarters, that we were able to pass on these high raw materials, this high energy cost to the market. In this very specific situation, we were able to even overcompensate and create a sort of extra margin. That's the main reason for this very strong EBITDA development. How did these earnings then translate into cash flow? Unfortunately, here I have to say not as positive as we would have liked. You can see we generated a cash flow from results of around EUR 1.5 billion, which is actually a good number. We had a working capital build of around almost EUR 1.9 billion.
Quite a high figure I want to explain, later on. Cash flow from operations, that leads to cash flow from operations of around EUR 356 million negative. Then we had also a bit of funny figure here, cash flow from investments, a positive figure of EUR 267 million. Why is this number positive? We had CapEx, of course, CapEx in a range of around EUR 480 million, which is of course a cash outflow. On the other hand, we had a cash inflow of around EUR 750 million from the sale of the HBI plant in Texas. The net position is here shown as a positive cash flow from investing activities of this EUR 267 million.
Nevertheless, the free cash flow from the first nine months then ends up as minus EUR 89 million. Coming to this number of working capital, EUR 1.9 billion, some details on how this figure emerged in the first nine months. You can see it can be broken down to inventories, accounts receivable and accounts payable. What you can see is that we built up inventories quite a bit by around EUR 1.166 billion. This is the largest portion also here in this nine months development. It happened mostly, I have to say, this buildup work of working capital of inventories in particular, happened mostly in the very beginning of the financial year.
What we did, we had to redirect our supplies, raw material supplies, after the war in the Ukraine started, and we built up stocks in the course of this redirection of supply chains of this inbound logistics. This is a very natural thing. First of all, these supplies from the east were decade-long optimized on a working capital level. Now instead of bringing in the material on very short way via the Rhine via the Danube Canal from the Black Sea, we now bring in raw materials via Antwerp, Rotterdam, and bring them down all the Copa and down by rail or Rhine-Main-Danube Canal.
It's naturally, it is clear that we have higher stocks just by redirecting our supplies from a very optimized supply chain to a global one, bringing in raw materials from all over the world and into the northern harbors of Europe. This is the smaller part, although this is the volume part of the story, which is around one-third of this build of inventories. I have to say, apart from iron and coking coal, we also stored natural gas in an own storage facility, and this is roughly half of this volume effect in the working capital, in the inventory, sorry. Two-third of the inventory build was a pure value uplift. The simply raw material prices, energy prices were moving north, and so did our working capital value.
While this is something we couldn't help doing. This also all happened mostly in the beginning of the financial year. Then we had a reduction of accounts receivable, which is a positive on the cash flow. This happened mostly at the end of the reporting period. Also we had a reduction of accounts payable, a massive one, EUR 866 million, and this is a negative effect on the cash flow. This happened also basically at the very end of the reporting period in Q3. Speaking about Q3, I want to show and share also the cash flow development of the Q3 on a standalone basis. You can see we generated cash flow from results from the EUR 321 million.
We had the changes in working capital in this last three months of an additional EUR 359 million. Brought us to cash flow from operations of -EUR 38, the cash flows from activities, from investing activities which was pure CapEx at that, in this period of EUR 162, leading to a negative free cash flow of EUR 200 million. Speaking about these changes in working capital, again in Q3, although we are running working capital optimization programs, how did that happen? How could that happen? You can see actually we're on the right track.
We started to implement these working capital programs, and you can see the first positive re-effects are already a reduction of inventories by around EUR 124 million. This is a positive from the cash flow. On the other hand, we also reduced the accounts receivable by around EUR 200 million, also an effect of this working capital program and also positive on the cash flow. The largest element in this quarter, nevertheless, was the reduction of the accounts payable and the current provisions. Well, actually, what we're talking about are the accounts payable here. Of -EUR 680 million. This is a massive figure. This is a leading effect due to the reduced purchase of raw materials.
We, in this working capital optimization programs, we reduced our purchases in order to draw the stock levels down. This is what you can see already by the reduction of inventories. Of course, as a first effect, our accounts payable go down. In addition, we have also seen raw material prices, but also energy prices coming down, which was a negative effect on the accounts payable as well, because the purchasing value came down simply. This is something we couldn't help either. What you can see is that the accounts payable came down because we're running our working capital program.
This accounts payable is a reduction, is a technical effect, you can say, happening in the cash flow as our inbound logistics are, our inbound supply chain is longer than our payment terms are. This is why when we start our reduction of working capital, the first thing happening is that the accounts payable are going down before in the next step, the inventories are going down. You can see, although the figures are telling a different story, we're on the right track here. Everything's working in the right direction. Everything is going as we planned. Today's lower accounts payables, today's liabilities are basically tomorrow's inventories. We are on the track, reducing the working capital. That's good.
It has a timing effect, which hit us technically very negatively in this Q3 by end of December. How we are proceeding from here, what the outlook is looking like, Herbert will give you a brief overview again.
What is the outlook for the remainder of the year? I think the recession fears diminished somewhat. That means the economy is better than forecasted. Also we have these uncertainties in Europe, above all due the Ukraine war. For the U.S., we expect only, if any, a very mild recession. Also very positive for us is our activity in Brazil. There is no final clarity about the economic activities after the elections, but what we see and what we, when we discuss with our people there are very stable conditions so far also for the next in the next quarter.
Yes, the COVID infection wave in China will impact our Q4 activities to a certain extent. As I mentioned before, for me, at least from my perspective, it's positive also into next year because this is then, when it's over, it will have a positive impact on the activities in China. Again, aerospace, energy sectors will extend the upward trend, especially the energy sector. I would say also the G again, very high prices at the moment. I think unchanged demand in railway infrastructure, goods, good and stable on a very good level.
I would say automotive, as I mentioned before, very stable on a lower level. I do not expect a quick recovery coming from the supply chain issues. We see here and there some OEMs are better in supplying their factories. Some have still problems. I would say also mechanical engineering, as I mentioned before, with a good order backlog, I think we will see good development till summer, at least till summer. It's clear that we have to live with the lower demand in consumer goods and also construction industry. For us is that industrial steel buildings is expected on a lower level. That all leads to...
With all this positive and on the other hand, also negative effects, this will lead to a forecast for a better forecast compared to the last forecast of around EUR 2.5 billion. Just to remark that this figure includes a positive one-off effect from a potential sale of land of EUR 120 million. Why do we add this here? I think it's not 100%, but it's contingent to also administrative approvals in the course of this business year. That's so far very brief, our outlook, and I'm sure you have a lot of questions.
If you'd like to ask a question over the phones, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. We'll go first to Alain Gabriel with Morgan Stanley.
Thank you, gentlemen. I have two questions from my side. Firstly, on the energy hedges that you have in place, can you give us a bit more color on how you're approaching the energy hedges? Are you able to quantify a little bit more how we should think about the hedges going to Q1 and Q2 given the sharp reversal in energy costs? That's the first question.
Energy hedging is quite a complex, quite a complex topic. What I can say is that we, most of our hedges energy raw material, is or is back to back. That means, we try to back our moving parts of longer-term contracts and project business. This is mostly done by energy and iron ore, coal and all those things. This is more or less the main strategy in our hedges. I have to admit that the energy has become a more important topic and will remain a topic also in the next year as well. When you look at our contract structure, we are not on the spot business mostly.
We have contract business in all our business segments. We think that this back-to-back hedge strategy is how should I say, the best summary to explain what we are thinking about it.
Okay. Are you able to quantify a little bit the energy cost implications going to Q1 , calendar Q2 and Q2 ? Just to get a sense of the magnitude of the benefits, if any, as these hedges are being rolled off.
As I said before, when it's back-to-back, then we have frozen the margin more or less, and then this is the benefit, and we are free of volatilities in this sector. When we have longer term topics, I think it's evident that the energy prices are now lower than in Q3. I think that was the high. In Q3, we had the highest energy prices in the course of the year. I would say when it comes to raw materials, it's a bit lower. I think not a big. At the moment is lower than in the first two quarters.
I would say at the moment, very stable development.
Okay. Thank you. My second question is on your guidance, which implies an EBITDA of around EUR 500 million in calendar Q1 . Should we see this as a calendar 2023 low, given that prices and volumes for steel are rising and obviously energy costs are also saving sequentially? Is that a fair assumption to make?
It's a interesting question. I think, in the third quarter, is this EUR 120 land sale, included. What I would say is, The question is what do we expect in the next quarter?
Yeah. Should we see this EUR 500 million as the low for 2023, and then should it start driving sequentially the run rate as we go into calendar Q2 and calendar Q3 onwards?
No. No, I think, when you, I think quarter three was a very weak quarter. Also we have to consider, we have these stops around Christmas, which has a seasonal effect as well. I think this was the lowest point.
If you allow me this comment, I think just taking the guidance for obviously Q4, which as you mentioned is around EUR 500 million EBITDA multiplied by four to have an annual EBITDA figure, I think might be a bit on the optimistic side, to be frank. I mean, it's.
You have the season summer and winter.
Yeah. First of all, exactly. Usually our March quarter is one of the strongest one in a normal seasonal pattern. Of course, this year was everything. I mean, the year 2022, 2023 was everything else than normal. I think also going forward from here, I think it's most difficult to forecast is the steel business of course, which is your main job, to know the future of what the steel business is doing. I think the other business segments or the other divisions are a bit more stable in their development.
One thing is still the case, I think we have still very moderate forecasts when we talk about the building industry, when we speak about consumer goods, when we speak about white goods industry going forward. I personally would consider 500 multiplied by four to be very optimistic for the year 23.
Yeah. I would say when you ask me, is the actual guidance of EBITDA a possible scenario, I would say yes, under the given circumstances. When you look, with a certain positive momentum, I would say this can be a goal where we should go.
Thank you very much.
Yeah. The consensus, sorry. Peter said that not the guidance, that the consensus that was.
Understood.
Sorry, I was wrong. When you ask about.
Understood.
The consensus, I would say that's a possible scenario.
Thanks.
Next to Tristan Gresser with BNP Paribas.
Yes. Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I have two. First, how do you see free cash flow evolve in Q4 on a four-year basis? What kind of working capital release should we expect? How much CapEx should we see as well in Q4? Maybe some catch up there. I start there. Thank you.
Yeah. You got the presentation of Peter. I would say in our plan, we should see at the end of the year a free cash flow of around EUR 800 million. That would be EUR 800 million, maybe a bit plus, between cash release or working capital release between EUR 700 million-EUR 900 million, considering that there is a certain carryover of CapEx into next year.
All right. Just to clarify on that, the CapEx you expect for Q4 will be then below the initial guidance, can you give us a bit of a sense for fiscal 2024, what kind of CapEx you're looking at given those effects you just mentioned?
I think that will not be a big issue into next year, but our budget is around EUR 900 million CapEx and I think 10%, 5%-10% can be carried over to next.
Okay, that's clear. My second question is a bit more, a bigger picture. Maybe if you can give us an update on the BETA 3 investment and also what kind of EBITDA uplift you're looking at with the new facility. Let's say in normalized market conditions in the past, your steel EBITDA per ton average maybe EUR 100 per ton. As now, the market is kind of slightly down, and hopefully we get less volatility moving forward. Do you think with the changes in the marketplace and the changes you've implemented yourself on your product mix and cost base, that you could see higher margins than in the past? Thank you.
Sorry.
Sorry, I didn't.
Yeah.
didn't get you.
The CapEx program you were referring to, which project was that? We understood the Beta project.
Yeah, the BETA 3 line, the investment you're making on your core role, facility, the 2 million ton pickling line. More-
That's true. Okay.
Let's say an update on that, and more bigger picture in terms of a normalized profitability for the steel business. Will it be higher in normalized market conditions moving forward than what we've seen in the past, given the change in the product mix and the changes you've made? If you're able to quantify, that'd be really helpful. Thank you.
That's a very detailed question. I would say, what I can say that this investment in this BETA 3 is that we have a continuous mill. That that means for us that we get a better yield and a better cost base which is especially very interesting for us also for electrical steel but also other high strengths grade. That's I would say it's a mix of more efficient production and also a higher quality mix.
This, when we look at the high demand in electrical steel, especially for the automotive industry, I think it will be a positive, will have a positive impact of our products there. I would say we talked about 200,000-300,000 tons of our products. It's a part of our business which will improve our mix and also has a positive cost impact. The final figure, I have not, I have no available at the moment.
Okay. The facility is still scheduled to ramp up by calendar year-end, right?
Yeah, yeah. It's actually in the commissioning and will then be up and running.
Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.
We'll go next to Rochus Brauneiser with Kepler Cheuvreux.
Yes, here Rochus Brauneiser from Kepler. I have a question on the metal engineering business. Herbert Eibensteiner, can you give us a bit more color, what shall we expect from that business in the years ahead? I think on the one hand side, you're flagging that the railway business is very stable and strong, and probably there's more to come. On the other side, you're benefiting from very good contributions in the OCTG business right now, which might not be staying at that high levels. When we put all these bits and pieces together, what is the kind of directional earnings trend you're seeing for this business? Are we talking more like EUR 400 million a year, or is it more like, I don't know, EUR 500 million?
Is that the kind of range we should think of? Maybe particularly on the oil and gas business, can you help us to how we shall think about that business moving forward with, you know, all the headwinds for fossil fuel investments, how you see this business trending in the years ahead in your portfolio?
You are right, that OCTG business is very good at the moment, so we are fully utilized. The improvement is at the moment on the price side. This will not take forever. That's clear. What I see or what we see is that demand is still very high and driven by the LNG production, especially in the USA. I think this is a business we can expect on a high level also into the next years. Maybe the price level will change a little bit, but I think volume-wise and, you know, we are focusing on this high-quality tubes. I'm relatively optimistic.
When it comes to railway, I think we, the switch system business, I think this is a very stable business. When you look at the basic business model, which is 90% maintenance and repair, and the rest, 10% or 15% is always new railway infrastructure. We exactly at the sweet spot, sorry, where we should be, because especially in Europe, the infrastructure is in the next years has to be repaired significantly in the Western country, Germany, France and so on.
Positive is maybe in the next years that we are part with switches in Egypt where they have big plans to extend the railway infrastructure. This we would add to this 10% of new railway infrastructure. What's worth to mention is that in the last years, we were benefiting from the high speed infrastructure in China with new infrastructure. Now, I think this is a more mature activity so far. Now we are coming in this cycle of maintenance and repair. That's the reason, the main reason for this very positive and very stable outlook, also for the next years.
In this area, we have also more volatile businesses in wire rod, and yes, which is also affected by industrial activities. On the other hand, it's welding consumable, also consumables, also a very stable activity, but on a lower EBIT, EBITDA level, compared to the others. All in all, this is why I think that this metal engineering division will be also in the next years a very positive and stable division in our portfolio.
Yeah. In terms of, earnings-wise, is it more like in the range for the years ahead, what you're expecting for this fiscal? Or is it more in the bracket of what you had the year ago?
Okay, you know, I think with this year and maybe next year, we will be benefiting from this OCTG business. Normally, I would say over this cycle, between EUR 400 million-EUR 500 million EBITDA, I think that's a reasonable figure, and you can take.
Right. Okay, cool. Maybe on, on steel, work, can you already give us a bit of an indication where you see the steel business trending for your fiscal Q1? Q4 will be a seasonally better one. What is your current thinking about the Q1 and the levels you may be seeing in the, in your fiscal Q1? Would you consider that as kind of a, yeah, normalized margin in the current macro environment?
Yes. I think, we see that the volume is in now in sta- you know, we are, we are still in January, but what we see is that the volume is by far better than in Q3. So I think it's, this is, I would say Q4 is more volume-driven till the end of the business year. You asked in, into, in, in Q1 next year. You know, in the meantime, the price has increased around EUR 100 per ton, EUR 100, EUR 100, EUR 120. I think this is a price for next quarter, especially when it comes to shorter term quarterly business.
I would say that this is a positive start in the new business year.
Okay. Okay. That's, that's helpful. Thank you.
We'll go next to Patrick Mann with Bank of America.
Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you for the opportunity. I think most of my questions have been answered. I suppose, the one that I've still got left over is the working capital release, the EUR 700 million-EUR 900 million. Can you just talk about the use of that cash, where you're gonna deploy it? Then, you know, is that it? Do you think you'll be down to normalized levels of working capital, you know, assuming stable raw material prices and stable steel prices? Would you then feel like you're at normal levels of working capital at the end of the year, at the end of the fiscal year? Thanks.
Yeah, I think it's evident that we will have in the next years bigger projects when it comes to greentec steel. On the other hand, we want to pay our dividends also out of our cash so far. In next year, we have, I think, you know, I think these are the main points is to prepare for this bigger investments in the next years and also for sure, but this is normal, pay also dividends.
Thank you. Just in terms of the working capital, the release that's coming, would you feel at the end of the fiscal year that you're then at a normal level of working capital?
Yes, I think, we had when we started the business here, we started with very low levels of working capital. 31st of March 2022, we had, like, 13% of sales in working capital, which I think was low. We had this massive build until end of December. We will have a massive release until end of March. Figuring or taking this release into account, we should end up with something like 16% working capital relative to sales, which we consider as a relatively normal figure. We are still working, of course, on further optimizing the working capital, we might maybe see some further cash release in the year 2023, 2024, it's a bit early to answer that.
Ultimately, we think, we will be closer to a normal level than where we were end of December.
Thank you.
We'll go next to Dominic O'Kane with JP Morgan.
Hello. I just wonder if you could help us, maybe just navigate the current situation in the automotive contract settlements. What have you seen and how do you think those pricing contracts will evolve? That's my first question.
You know, I can only talk about the results of the January negotiations. You should know that our yearly and half year contracts are also distributed all over the year. The volume which has been negotiated or has negotiated in the first of January was roughly a reduction between EUR 180 and EUR 200 per ton.
Okay, that's really helpful. Thank you. My second question is, how are you thinking about cost saving initiatives, heading into fiscal 2024? Is sort of cost pressures something that you're more actively considering? Is there an opportunity to maybe enhance and accelerate some of the, cost, targets within the business?
You know, we have our normal cost saving initiatives, which are about EUR 300 million-350 million per year. Also I'm relatively optimistic considering the environment we are in. We have also companies which are in troubles and where we have to increase efficiencies measures. So in certain areas, Germany for instance, but also in the U.S., we have already reduced workforce. This is in an area, I would say, between 300-500 FTEs.
I think this is, for the time being, the cost saving activities, in addition to this ongoing EUR 300 million-350 million savings to increase efficiency. I think it's time will show if more is necessary. I have to say that more and more of our CapEx is going into Energy efficiency, this will also be a part of our savings in this or better cost structure in the future.
That's really helpful. Thank you very much.
We'll go next to Krishan Agarwal with Citi.
Hi. Thanks a lot for taking my question. I mean, if I can push you a little bit on your volume, or let me say, shipment expectation for the Q4 FY 2023. What sort of no pickup into the auto volumes you have factored into that guidance? If I look at the, you know, High Performance Metals, the volume decline is significant there. What is your view on the High Performance Metals volume recovery, I mean, given that it is a slightly longer cycle business than the steel business in general?
Shipment expectation is 1.3 million tons for Q4 for the Steel Division. High Performance Metals, do you have the figure?
Give me a second. Usually we have, we're expecting a rebound also in volumes in the High Performance Metals business. I think we were in particular hit in December by a very poor volumes in China, very poor business in China. This was due to the COVID wave, which hit the country. What we can see today is that also January 23 is still economically affected by this COVID wave. We expect a strong recovery February and latest March. We think in total High Performance Metals shipments should go up in the fourth fiscal quarter. It's not such a big swing as it was in the Steel Division.
Understood. If I can clarify on the 1.3 million ton number. Is that for Steel Division alone, 2024?
pardon? I didn't understand. Could you please repeat the question? Sorry about that.
If I can clarify on that 1.3 million ton number, is that the shipment expectation for Q4, for the Steel Division alone?
Yes.
Yes.
That's for the Steel Division alone. Yes, absolutely.
Okay. Understood. Could you qualitatively comment on the auto improvement which you have factored in? Because in the release you mentioned that auto, you know, pickups have not been coming through as you would have expected. How should we think about this in the Q1, given that we are already into the February, you would have a good visibility on your auto volumes?
You know, that's always a tricky question. When I talk about expectation and the plans we get normally, there is always a difference. What we think is that especially car makers are a bit or the German car maker in the higher quality segment, they should be a bit better. Some others have announced additional stops because of supply chain topics. All in all, I would say, I would see it on the same level compared to Q now in Q1 with Q4. You know, Q3 is not a good comparison because of this winter stops and Christmas stops.
I would say at least what we think is that Q1 will be similar than Q4.
Okay. Okay. Understood. Yeah. I think that's it from my side.
We'll go next to Christian Obst with Baader Bank.
Yes. Good afternoon. One question is concerning the order backlog. You talked about in your report that you're deep in some segments from the very high order backlog. Can you say where you see the main decline in the segments currently and that where the order backlog is going down currently? You are expecting to ramp up the new stainless steel plant in Kapfenberg for HPM. Can you give us some kind of an idea what kind of impact this will have in the following time after the ramp up?
No, no recovery, in the first two quarters, next year.
Just as a reminder to ask a question on today's call, that is star one on your telephone keypad. We'll go next to Bastian Synagowitz with Deutsche Bank.
Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I only have a quick one left, please. That is actually a follow-up on steel and heavy plate. If we look at your volumes, you had a, I think a decent improvement over the last two years. If we look at it back further, you're basically still, about 25% short of your previous volume peak. What are you seeing in your order book at the moment? Will your realized margins continue to rise, and do you see any scope to push volumes a little bit further versus the current 140,000 tons a quarter run rate? That is, that is my question. Hello?
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Yes.
Yes. Sorry for the interruption. We had a technical issue with our telephone line. We are back on the stream, I think, and we are also back on the telephone, I hope so. Jennifer, please if there is still anyone in the call, we would be very happy to answer any further questions if there are still some.
This is Scott Bastian from Deutsche. Can you hear me?
Yes. Hi, Bastian. We can hear you. Thank you very much for being so patient, waiting for us. Please go ahead.
Okay. No problem.
Your line is open.
No problems at all. I just wanted to follow up briefly on steel and actually heavy plate. If I track your volumes, I guess you obviously had a nice recovery over the last two years, but then if we basically look back further, you're basically still around 25% short of your previous like optimum on the volume side. I was just wondering, what are you seeing in your order books? Do you see scope to basically get closer to the previous, I think, volume levels versus the current 140 kilotons a quarter run rate? Maybe also if you could briefly like give us a bit of color around margins and plate.
Have we already been at the margin peak, or do you see actually a further uptrend in realized margins here?
Yeah, interesting question. You are totally right. Normally, even in heavy plate, we are focusing on this higher quality, higher quality steel grades. You know, our speciality is this cladded material, which is high margin, but not very much volume. It's as you said that we expect better volume in heavy plates because line pipe is normally, or the was not as good in the past years. Especially in this area, we see a certain recovery and also in new projects with this cladded material.
I think, when I'm right and I remember correctly, I think, for next year, we will see a figure, which is all in all higher than this year.
Okay. In terms of your margin evolution, I guess order books typically in plate can be slightly longer, which, I guess, could mean obviously that maybe the tight market conditions we saw recently have maybe not yet been fully realized in your P&L. Is that fair, or have we already passed the peak in margins in plate?
Yeah, I think this is, it's always the case that, you know, this is project business. When, you know, there is big demand for such material in several projects, we think the case in the next years, because it's mostly energy driven. Then it's also a topic of availability of material, shorter lead times. Also logistics is very important, and which has become more and more difficult because we haven't access to the Black Sea anymore, because of the Ukraine war.
There are a lot of topics, but at the end, I would say, the margin is very good and can be expected also at a similar level in the next year, at least for the next three quarters, I would say.
Okay, thanks. Thanks so much, and thanks for taking my question.
The next to Grant Sporre with Bloomberg Intelligence.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. It's just a clarification on the CapEx, please. I think you said the budget this year was EUR 900 million. If you could just confirm that, and then just, what's. Are we expecting to see a similar level of CapEx for next year, so, you know, FY 2024? When can we start to see some of the investments on your green steel plans coming through? Would it be FY 2024 or more likely FY 2025? Thanks very much.
Yeah. you know, a small amount of CapEx is already in this CapEx figure included. It's clear that, especially in beginning with next year a little bit, but then more, 2024, 2025, 2026, you will see the bigger investment figures coming from this, and 2027, from this first step of our greentec steel project. I think that's the schedule we see at the moment.
Uh-
CapEx level for 2022, 2023.
Is it-
Originally we were expecting EUR 950 million, but we have some time overrun, and so it will be most probably around EUR 900 million this year, maybe even somewhat below it. We expect around EUR 900 million for 2022, 2023, so for the business year ending in March 2023. 2023, 2024 then is expected CapEx level of around roughly EUR 1 billion.
Great. Thank you. Thanks very much for those answers.
You're welcome.
At this time, there are no questions from the phones.
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Thank you very much. Bye-bye.
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