Ladies and gentlemen, a warm welcome from Vienna to the Wienerberger conference call in the context of our H1 trading statement published today. Our board representatives are our CEO, Heimo Scheuch, and our CFO, Gerhard Hanke. They will lead you through the call today, discussing our strong performance in the first half of the year. Afterwards, as always, we are ready to take your questions. Please bear in mind that this is a preliminary update. The full set of H1 results will be provided on 10th of August. With that, I hand over to Mr. Scheuch.
A wonderful good morning also from our side here from Vienna. It's a very hot day out there with about 35 degrees, so we are glad to sit inside here. As I said, warm welcome. Markus Remis is handling the administration today. Daniel, please be aware that he is with COVID at home. It's nothing serious, but he has to isolate himself for a couple of days. Please don't call him. He is recuperating. We ask for your kind understanding. Let's move now to our performance. A very satisfactory performance in the first half of this year. It's obviously a record performance when you look on the EBITDA front.
We forecasted or we forecast EUR 530 million EBITDA, so that's a 74% increase compared to last year, and more than EUR 200 million, obviously, more EBITDA in the first half of this year. A very strong performance. Considering these times, and I don't have to stress them, it's volatile, it's difficult to assess what's happening. The inflation side, the war side, the whole sort of rhetoric that we have around the world right now. It's very unstable, but we have seen in our markets good underlying demand levels in all of our markets, in all products, in all end markets, new housing, also in renovation and in infrastructure on both sides of the Atlantic, Canada and the U.S., strong performance, and also in Europe, all around Europe. We had a very good order intake also. Deliveries are strong.
If I sort of say this is certainly a fact that Wienerberger has been running through full speed with our available capacity. In all of our markets, we were able to deliver to the customers. You're fully aware, and I alerted to this also in the first three months, that some of our competitors are in standstill mode. It has been prolonged also in the second quarter of this year. We took, obviously, over some of these activities from colleagues of ours that were not in production. This is, I think, a strong momentum for Wienerberger. It shows also that our business model is more resilient, because I wouldn't call these markets that we operate in currently as booming, to be honest. They are, they're good markets, solid markets.
When I look on the new build front, there's no market that we operate in that we would qualify as overbuilt. By the way, if you look at certain markets, they are far under the sort of target that some countries have imposed on themselves. New build targets, how many housing units they have to build. If I compare over more than a decade now, the development of these new build sort of rates, we are in the upper range, but far away from any peak ranges. Here again, I'm not afraid that here we are sort of in a booming scenario, or this is a bust scenario when it comes to the demand level. What I'm trying to say with this, we have strong underlying demand still when it comes to new residential housing.
Renovation, obviously, is driven very strongly by the targets of CO2 reduction in Europe in the building segment and the initiatives that certain member states of the EU have taken already, either with tax benefits or other incentives. You see this segment is growing and making a strong contribution to Wienerberger's overall performance. This should be continuing because obviously the targets are relevant for the years to come. The housing stock has to be renovated, especially when we come to our roofing segment and also our facade segment. We take advantage of that. Infrastructure also, especially on the waterfront, strong performance in Central Eastern Europe, also in the U.S. and in Northern Europe, so good underlying demand levels. Public projects coming in, tenders coming in. Here I would say it's a good underlying demand level that we see.
On the pricing side, we obviously recuperated all inflationary cost increases by the price increases, as we have said at the beginning of this year. We continue to do so. We trade up also with the mix. We speak and provide you with information about our solution business, how we improve the range of our mix and the penetration in the markets with our new products is going well. Here, obviously, we see the benefits of this strategy and the way forward for Wienerberger. I know there was a lot of discussion also for us, difficult to assess the political and overall discussion with the availability, especially of natural gas. That's why we have been cautious in the first three months, because right after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, there was a lot of discussion. Will we have enough gas?
Will it be sort of cut, et cetera? We have seen a steady flow, and so we are, and still are in all of our countries at full production and full availability that we can access over the networks. So here again, we don't see on short notice any different approaches by any countries taken. We're in close contact with all the national providers, national authorities. Because as you are well aware, the countries in Europe have different approaches and have taken different approaches. However, on a national level, they have all the authorities and administrations in place that regulate the distribution of gas. That's very important because here you have different approaches through all of our markets.
At this very stage, we have put it in our trading update, we see no immediate risk, but we obviously monitor the situation in Germany and in Austria very closely. Whereas in Germany, obviously, we are at level two of the escalation phase. However, we are not under any sort of pressure or whatever to cut the consumption or do anything with respect to our factories so they run through. The only thing is obviously availability and access to it in the months and probably over the winter.
I mean, my best guess at this stage is probably that we will go a little bit down with production over the winter months in Germany, for example, if they don't have different access to natural gas, or we are capable of liquid gas as a replacement on a short notice. That's something that we are currently working on the German market. Austria is a little different. We might get more access to gas and natural gas through Central Europe, which has a better access to availability, not only from Russia, but also the Caspian Sea and throughout Turkey, the pipeline coming up. I think the whole situation gets a little bit more stable, I would call it, on the availability side.
That there are sort of force majeure clause. There's nothing indicated on this. Our current contracts and agreements are holding up, and we are actually getting under them the gas with the prices that we have negotiated with the providers in the past. This is I think on the current energy front. What I would like also to relate to you that we are continuing, obviously, when we talk about investments, our investment policy and moving away to more sustainable energy resources, especially electricity. In some countries, we are working obviously closely with authorities and providers on the hydrogen front, biogas, like in some Nordic countries, and syngas could also be an option in some areas.
I'm saying this because it needs to become clear for all of us, the energy policy of Wienerberger in the future. I'm looking now into a 10-year sort of range, will be a more local one where we access local available energy and electricity will play here a major role when it comes to the production, especially in the building material segment. Because as you are aware, Wienerberger has as its footprint today, only one part that is highly energy intensive, which I call, it's the building sector, which is the clay products. 'Cause the other products are actually only depending on electricity, like the whole business in the piping segment, which is obviously already more than a billion turnover.
Keep in mind that we have a turnover of more than a billion or literally a billion now in North America. The exposure to this segment decreases significantly. As I said, the access to natural gas is very different around Europe. We have better access in Nordic, Western European, economies, and even in some Eastern European economies, the situation has significantly improved. Here, I think, we are working on this subject very intensively. It's a major subject for all of us on the board level and in the whole line management, but I think we have it, at this stage, pretty much under control. The year as we speak is progressing nicely.
What we see as order intake is normal for this level of the year, so there's nothing to be worried about. Obviously, we monitor all the negative news, and I'm fully aware. I'm fully aware that markets, and especially the financial market, is driven by negative news at this stage throughout the world. Interest rate hikes, then the consumer confidence, then the debt levels, et cetera. I'm just as an humble managing part of a business that operates in these end markets. I can say that we have good order intakes. People are investing in infrastructure, are investing in renovation, and also in the new housing segment, one in two families. We have still housing units. We have still a very good order intake in North America and in Europe. People are investing in this segment.
I think from the rest of the year that is in front of us, the next six months, we should have a good underlying business. That's why we obviously increased at this stage, even in this volatile times, with all these negative news around us, our guidance to around EUR 900 million. This provides obviously that we don't have a bigger war than we have today. We have to be dealing with this situation. It's obviously affecting certain supply chains, et cetera. As you can see, we are dealing well with this situation. We are dealing also with the higher interest rates and all that sort of things on the market, but also the inflationary cost increases, especially. I think we have learned to deal with it.
On the cost side, we are working hard in order to improve our cost base with the Fast Forward program, making all the good contributions to the business that we have foreseen and have built in our sort of guidance. I think all in all, we are looking with a certain degree of positive and optimistic outlook for the rest of the year because it shows. Ladies and gentlemen, the incredible earnings potential of Wienerberger was EUR 900 million that we can reach in a good or a relatively solid underlying economy. It's not a historical height, by the way. It's a strong economy, and we have obviously done a lot to improve our business and to come to these levels. The question that you will be asking, all of you, is this, are these sustainable levels?
I can only say from a business perspective, managerial, the capacity, the technology, the people, the products, it's sustainable because we are operating it. We deliver the systems, the solutions to the market every day. We deal with it with our digital performance in the business. We deal with it with our, obviously, pricing power that we have in the market. I think it. Yes, it shows clearly that we are capable of running a much better business than in the past and can deal with all these challenges. Please don't forget, and I've tried to sort of allude to a couple of those that we are facing in the market. Yes, this is a strong business and has a solid backbone and can operate in difficult times.
If the market as such declines and if we have certain sort of declining momentum coming our way in 2023 or 2024 or even later, I don't know yet, but I think we are prepared. We are prepared, as we have been prepared in the past, to move very quickly if we see signs of declining order intake. Today, ladies and gentlemen, we are focused on getting out the products to our customers and clients in all of our markets, and that's the top priority of our management, of our people. That's what we are currently focusing on. I think on this note, I will leave you to ask your questions. With Markus remark at the beginning, please, it's the 1st of July.
We gave you a very quick and fast update, a faster sort of trading update on the performance and also on the year. I think that the more details we will sort of deal with you in the next sort of call that we will have in August when we do the whole sort of set of numbers. This gives you, I think, the flavor and the temperature, if I may say so, under which we operate right now in Wienerberger. Thank you very much for your attention.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from [uncertain] from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, gents. I have mainly on two questions. Possibly the first one is on the order book. You talked about order intake being at a very good level. If you could compare the Q2 order intake versus how it was in 2021 and possibly give us an update versus 2019, just to see how the level is, at what level we are. If you can just give the similar number for Q1, so we can just see how things are progressing. Secondly, on the order book, if you could give the order book length. I understand that's possibly in building solution, you maybe think, maybe that's the main one. If you could give what's the order book length.
Secondly, on the EBITDA guidance for second half, which implies at least 5% decline on an absolute basis. What's the underlying assumption in terms of, yeah, volume and the cost inflation?
First of all, let me comment a little. I appreciate them, obviously, and understand fully what you are under with respect to information. When you look at the guidance, and I think, when you look at it from a perspective what we have achieved last year, first half of 2021 to second half of the year, it's a good indication where we are right now. Because obviously last year it has been a strong demand level, especially also going into Q4. Yeah, with a lot of momentum building due to price increases and people are stocking our materials. We've seen a lot of momentum on the volume basis in the second half of last year.
I think when I talk about normalized levels then I'm referring to these sort of demand levels in the market. Yeah, that's what I refer to. This is, by the way, not surprising because if we look at the first half of this year also from a volume perspective, it's overall a sort of a trend that we will see throughout the year. I mean, stabilization on a good level. This is where I see the group developing towards and the demand level in the market. Based on this scenario, I strongly would sort of allude to the fact that actually it's from a perspective of guidance, it's a very ambitious guidance. It's a strong guidance.
Especially in this unstable times, we need to be aware that things might change. At this stage, I think it's no decline as you see it. Obviously you can't sort of only run numbers, and I understand this. Please, if you see our work, it's a substantial work that we put in there to assess the different markets, the cost structures, and therefore we think that this is obviously a very ambitious way forward to get to EUR 900 million at year-end 2022. I think considering all of what's happening around us, and I think you will agree with me, it's going to. We will be happy to see this result, yeah, for business. The second question that you have is order intake.
You need to be aware that obviously our business cannot be compared 100% with others. I'm aware that, for example, our friends of Kingspan that are more in also in the commercial business can give you a better sort of feel for the order intake because they have longer order intake processes and are working more on the commercial business front. We are, as I said, in a lot of markets, we are in the one- and two-family houses, which is, I don't say it's a cash and carry market, but it's a sort of a market that moves differently, and we don't have so long order phases like in other materials and other markets.
However, what I try to say and explain is that we have a visibility in certain markets around three months or a little less, and in some markets a little more than that. In order intake as such, as I said, it doesn't lead to any surprises or to any sort of worries when I look at it from a perspective, if I compare it to 2019, 2020 or 2021. It's very much in line with those years. I think it's a solid order intake. As I said at the beginning, it's very satisfactory for this very environment.
You might see in certain markets, and I say this loud and clear as well, if there are bigger projects, meaning bigger residential projects, like, it can be in Poland, it can be in Romania, but it can also be in the U.S., that people tend to wait a little bit, that they are sold. Sold means they start the building process only if 60% or 70% of the apartments are already sold and not as in the past with 30%, for example, because obviously the interest rate hikes and the more difficult financing process makes them wait a little longer. However, and this is I think the good news, there's the demand level still behind, and people can afford these apartments and buy into the market. It's not yet a market where we see that there's a lack of demand.
This is, I think, how to answer your question.
Helpful. Thank you. If I just confirm, so you're talking about order intake being in line with 2019?
Yes. In the sense, obviously, you know, 2019, 2020, 2021. I think there's nothing that surprises me when I look at the order intake in all these different markets. Please be aware we are operating in 30 different markets with 30 different ways of doing and how. I can't, we don't have a number. This is not very helpful, and this doesn't lead to anything. All the intelligence that we gather, and this is what I'm trying to say, it's as normal as it is normal for this period of the year.
Okay. Understood. Thank you very much.
The next question is Yassine Touahri from On Field Investment Research. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. I would have two questions. Could you give us a little bit of color on the gas inflation, cost inflation that you're expecting in 2023? I understand that you've hedged more than 90% of your gas in 2022, more than 80% for next year. Based on your hedging, you should have already a good view of what kind of a gas cost inflation you're expecting for next year. In this context, what does it mean for the necessary price increase in 2023? Another question is that, what do you think would be your pricing power in the event where we see a downturn in activity?
I remember that in 2009, 2010, pricing came a little bit under pressure in the market. Do you see any risk of that if volume are under pressure?
Thank you for very good questions, by the way, and very important ones. If we talk about the pricing power and the situation, I strongly would suggest that we are in a completely different scenario than we were in 2008, 2009 or 2010. Because here we had not only a lack of demand, we had overbuilt markets, end markets, especially in new residential housing. Wienerberger was then a very different animal because it, we were focused so much on new residential housing only. Last but not least, very importantly, we were so focused on commodity products. Yeah. Our mix has dramatically changed. Now, when we talk about the current situation, I think this is, I think, very interesting also for me to go through this phase.
Quite a few of these smaller producers have stopped in this phase because energy is obviously very high. If you're on the spot market, you know much better than me, it's very difficult to produce and get the pricing right because the spot prices are tremendously high. For them, it's very difficult to operate. Again, I think they will not come back so quickly because what you're suggesting that we are going into a more difficult scenario, I call it now a recession case, for example, where demand levels drop dramatically and other economic indicators go down sharply. In this case, I would say that these people will not so quickly enter the market again. There won't be an overcapacity on the supply side.
Again, we will manage it much better with the product mix that we have, with the stronger grip on the market. As I said, Wienerberger has developed a way from a very strongly commodity-oriented business. The second question I will hand over to Gerhard, who is here as well to talk about the gas price development.
Basically, your question was about how much, I think, is hedged. We communicated already last time that you know that for this year, there is more than 90% hedged. Also, a big part of 2023 is hedged more than 80%, and also a big share of 2024. The prices which we have hedged basically also for the next year, we feel very comfortable. You also know that there are also some countries which we cannot hedge because there is legally a hedging or a forward buying impossible. These are countries like Bulgaria and Romania, which we have to buy then according to the national regulations which we have to apply.
Your question was also more in the direction I understood on necessary price increases related to energy price development. Here, I don't see a major hike basically for us to increase only out of energy prices the price levels for 2023. What we will see is more, I guess, based on the general cost inflation, which we feel this year will also translate in higher personal costs in 2023. This is a percentage what I expect will be higher from energy. I would not see a big price hike versus 2022.
Could you quantify a little bit the gas cost inflation that you're expecting in 2023, or is it too sensitive?
No, it's not too sensitive. It's not major.
It's not material, yeah. It's not material difference, yeah.
Thank you very much. That's okay.
Thank you.
The next question is from [u ncertain] .
Thank you very much. I have two quick questions, please. In your press release, you talk about to ensure the availability of natural gas, you have implemented contingency plans. Could you tell us a bit more about what contingencies that have been implemented on that? The second question is, given you have largely secured the gas supply contract for 2022, I'm just curious, you know, what would be the legal position if, let's say, in the unfortunate event that these contract are not honored? Thank you.
I answered the second question first. The legal situation is different from country to country. There's no one situation. The countries have different ones, and I will probably refer to two or so that we have a clear understanding. The German situation is very clear. We are currently in phase two of this emergency sort of scale, and this means that obviously the government monitors very closely consumption and deals with the industry and gets information and monitors it. It's not that they interfere in contracts, not at all.
If they would go to this number three escalation, then they have the opportunity to go into the market and say, "I cut the contracts," or people can call force majeure, as you would say, under contractual law. That's the escalation system that the Germans have implemented. The Austrians have a different system again, to be honest. Here, when I talk about emergency plans or contingency plans, what you were referring to in your first question, for example, in Austria, we work very closely with them. We basically stock, for example, some of our gas that we have bought. We can stock it in their reservoirs and in the storages and deal with them very closely.
They have a list of industries that would be cut off from gas first and second and third. We are not even in the first three. They have categorized this. That's why we deal with very intensively. It's actually a top chop attention point right now because it's so important for us. In some countries, we are even considered as a system-relevant industry, so they cut us last basically on the chain. What I'm trying to say, very complex, but we have, I think, now a good grip on this throughout all of our markets.
You see also how I argue with you, I'm more relaxed than a couple of months back because we have now sort of taken this to the competent levels on the state level. I think from our perspective here, we have a good overview on the supply side that we get enough supply in the countries that are under potential sort of a risk factor.
I would say that so much that obviously you can also deal in a German situation, for example, and we are discussing or it can be discussed with the government, that if they go to emergency number three, that we don't automatically get no gas, but we get gas in a structured way, or we go down with certain lines, or we take production not to zero, but to a lower level. Also during the wintertime, insert more maintenance or be on short-term stops or so. These are things that currently are discussed in case of emergencies, and that's what I mean with all the contingency plans that we have in place.
Okay, that's very clear. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question is from Kuglitsch from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. I wanna understand the German gas situation a little bit more in detail. I think you said sort of Germany, Austria is 10%, I think, of group sales. I guess that's building solutions. If we say 1/2 of that is, say, Germany, can we just use that as a proxy on your total gas bill? And the question obviously is, I think there's sort of a consensus that well, maybe it's not a consensus, but certainly there's a view that maybe in the summer, they basically called force majeure, and you'll have a repricing. Maybe to ask it differently or to ask it directly. If, say, tomorrow you had to pay spot in rather than your hedge, what sort of the monthly cost increase, I guess, just specifically on Germany.
That's the first question. The second question is just did you disclose your half one revenues, just so we can get a sense? Related to that, did you say you thought North America as a segment, I don't know if that was, if I understood correctly, is gonna make a billion of revenue? Is that what you're saying? Just to double-check. Thank you.
Yes, I can confirm what I've been saying on the North American segment. Due to the strong performance of the segment, we'll be approaching a billion turnover for the whole year, 2022. A strong performance on the sales side and the increase organically of the business. From turnover point of view, I gave you only a guidance on the EBITDA and also on the full year and half year. I hand over a little bit just to give you more color to Gerhard.
Yeah. On revenue side, yes, as Heimo just mentioned, yeah, we are normally not guiding it, but we expect revenues in the size of EUR 2.6 billion-EUR 2.55 billion for the first six months. This in line with basically the EBITDA guidance or forecast for the first six months of approximately EUR 530 million on operating EBITDA.
Thank you.
I think we have addressed two out of three, and now coming back to your gas situation in Germany. I wouldn't say it's a consensus. I think the German government is contemplating a lot of things, and please don't take my comments now as provocative or whatsoever. I think for them, it's also very difficult as a new government to handle such a crisis, so you get a lot of different messages out of there. I was privileged to speak to a lot of people last week in Berlin. I think from our perspective that they will call phase three in summer is, I think, premature. It's premature. That's for sure. If they call it at all this year, it's a different question. I mean, and what consequences it will have to all of us.
I wouldn't say that automatically we will go to spot prices. That's my first takeaway from this. It's more availability thing for the whole of Germany, yeah. If they make a different pricing system or whatever, then I think we will need to discuss with them if they interfere with existing contracts or whatsoever. But at this stage, I'm not seeing immediate action on them to go to level three. So that's my first one.
Right. Maybe also here to add. Please keep in mind that the announced level two, they have the possibility also to enforce basically this price adjustments law, which they basically are preparing. You also know that the preconditions are not fulfilled at the moment. Even if they have fulfilled the legal preconditions to bring this price adjustments law in place, they also then have to release it. We are in a constant exchange with the national authorities and also our legal advisors. It is not foreseen in the next weeks or not expected. I think for that moment, as Heimo mentioned, we are positive. What will happen after the summer, we will see. We will basically monitor that very closely. We are in a constant exchange with authorities, supported by our advisors.
From today's perspective, we feel fine with the German situation, yeah.
Okay, I understand, but could you still give us a sense of what the impact in theory would be? Appreciating that you don't think it's gonna happen.
Yeah. I think to really name a number is difficult because you know that, as Heimo mentioned, the maximum could be the spot price. The legal draft says an appropriate price, yeah. The question is, what will be the appropriate price, yeah? Could be something which is, I don't know, 20% below. Never I would expect that it will be above the spot market price. I think to really name or to give you a figure is not fair at the moment. I think we have to wait and see in which direction this will develop.
Yes, because we are not trying to avoid your question, but it could be a couple million euros or it could be whatever, EUR 10 million. At the end of the day, from I think when you look at the whole group, yeah, it's not that dramatic. It's minor, yeah.
Yeah. That's what I'm trying to get to, at the end of the day.
Yeah. That's what you want. You want the color there. From our perspective, yes, we will handle it. It will come our way, but we are not relaxed, as you can see. We are very much into detail, both of us, because it's a major subject for us. I think from a group's perspective, we can digest it and deal with it.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, star followed by one on your telephone. Anyone who has a question, star followed by one at this time. There are no further question at the moment. I hand back over.
Thank you, operator. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for taking the time and dialing in today. The next conference call will be on the tenth of August at 2:00 P.M. CET for our full set of results on the first half of the year. For today, we wish you a nice weekend. Goodbye.