Thank you, and welcome for joining the Wienerberger conference call on the Q3 2023 results. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, you may click on the Q&A button on the left side of your screen and then raise your hand. If you are connected via phone, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sarah Salchegger, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. A warm welcome to the Wienerberger earnings call on our Q3 2023 results. Our board representatives today are our CEO, Mr. Heimo Scheuch, and our CFO, Mr. Gerhard Hanke. They will walk you through the presentation and are ready to take your questions afterwards. I will now hand over to Mr. Scheuch for the presentation.
Thank you, Sarah. Warm welcome from Vienna, from my side and Gerhard's side, and the whole team. Thank you for joining the call. We will walk you quickly through the different subjects concerning quarter three and the outlook for the whole year 2023. Let's have a quick look to the results and what has happened so far. If we have the presentation before you, I think we have sent it out, then you see that obviously the challenging market environment has continued. Geopolitically speaking, I think you have followed all the different events that take place in Europe, outside Europe, and it's not necessary to talk about the implications that it has on certain items, also regarding our business.
The softening end markets, we will talk more in detail about them, but we have seen obviously that inflation has somehow come down in Europe and also in the U.S., but still mortgage rates remain on a very high level or have been even increased, as we have seen in the U.S. So all in all, it had an impact on our end markets and outwardly for this year, and you know this sheet, we have discussed it in detail at our capital markets day in Belgium last month. If you look at the different end markets, mainly the three: new build, renovation, and infrastructure. In Europe and North America, our major regions, you have seen in new build, obviously, a decline, on average about 35% in Europe, in new build overall, and about 20% in North America.
Obviously, and it goes without saying, that we have differences here with respect to specific markets. Some are down more, some are down less. In renovation, also in Europe, with 15% and 3% in North America, down. We have seen here also different developments in end markets. Renovation for us, Wienerberger, means specifically the roof business, and to a lesser extent, also in the infrastructure/in-house business for piping and a little bit on the façade as well. The infrastructure business, and I think this is a positive note also, if I may, in this context, is down less as we originally had foreseen.
In North America, where we have more or less a stable market development, and also in Europe, where we'll see also a certain sort of stabilization of this trend in Europe and a better market trend in Eastern Europe with respect to infrastructure. So when we look at our reaction, I think it's very important that we keep in mind that Wienerberger has implemented a very proactive cost management. Gerhard and myself will talk more in detail about this in a minute, and also Self-Help Program has continued and will continue also in the future.
So we have intensified all of our measures to flexibilize fixed costs, which we have started, by the way, already last year, and especially have reinforced them this year, and due to the declining end markets, have put a lot of emphasis since half year on the working capital management and the reduction of, especially of inventory and CapEx, which you will see, especially in the fourth quarter. When you look at the proactive cost management, contributed roughly a little shy of EUR 50 million, Self-Help measures, about EUR 34 million. Here we have done an enormous effort in order to reduce the fixed cost base of Wienerberger. Price over cost, also very impressive, the outperformance in this declining market environment, with about 4%-5%, depending on the end markets.
So here you can see that, Wienerberger has, in the first three quarters, with EUR 656 million, EBITDA performed well, and the margin has been kept on a very high level, above 20%. So a strong performance, considering the end markets, and they clearly, again, outperformed them. So I think here, a strong set of results, also in the third quarter, outperformed our end markets, and maintained our high profitability. Two words on the biggest transaction that the company has done in recent years. We are happy and particularly when you look at, how complex such transactions are these days, to report to you that we have now all, and really all the necessary antitrust approvals. By the way, we had to go through nine different approvals in Europe, and all of them have been obtained without major remedies.
So no material remedies, no sales of assets, no major ones that we, that will influence the business in the future. So that's very good news. We are now waiting on the secondary transaction. You know that the scope of the transaction didn't, for Wienerberger, did not include all the assets of the Terreal Group, so some of them are sold to a Swiss company. They are in front of the antitrust authorities right now, are progressing well, and we, we meaning the sellers of Terreal and us, we expect the final set of approvals for this secondary transaction that has nothing to do with ours for the end of the year or beginning of next.
But as I said, from our perspective is everything done, and we can use this time now to, in order to prepare the integration of the scope that we will integrate. One item that I want to mention also at this stage, none of these numbers, none of the earnings, other things included in the guidance for 2023. So we'll sort of update you as it comes, and when closing takes place, we'll make an update of the relevant numbers that are important for you. So if I hand over to Gerhard for the financials.
Thank you, Heimo. As just mentioned, it is a strong set of results. The quarter three results, the quarter three numbers, revenues are close to EUR 1.1 billion. EBITDA, EUR 211 million operating EBITDA, I think above expectations. I will also explain, what are the main drivers are that we reached the EUR 211 million? And I think more important, in the quarter three, that profitability is on a high level. It's still, close to 20% in quarter three. Let's, look in more detail into the revenues. What are the main drivers? On the, on the revenue side, the revenues went down around about 15% in quarter three.
Whereby, yes, markets are lower and weaker, so the volume or the market decline itself contributed with around about 17%. As we just said, in the ceramic, in the Western Europe ceramic part, we see that markets are lower than in quarter two. On the other side, we see a stabilization, respectively, an improvement in Eastern Europe, especially on the ceramic side, that quarter three was above quarter two and quarter one. So this is a positive momentum also where we see, okay, stabilization is there, and even a slight improvement in the ceramic business in Eastern Europe. And I think, more important, even is the positive dynamic what we see in the whole infrastructure business, yeah?
We see that the volumes are picking up, not only in Europe, also in North America, and also this trend is going forward. We see the same momentum also in October and also in the first days of November. EBITDA, EBITDA-wise, we generated an EBITDA, as mentioned before, of EUR 211 million. The EBITDA is mainly influenced basically firsthand by the lower volumes, clear. On the other side, by all the countermeasures, what Heimo just mentioned in the beginning, our cost management program, which contributed around about EUR 23 million to EBITDA. Self-Help Program, with EUR 12 million, and also the price over cost contribution, which is above EUR 25 million.
All in all, we were able, more or less, to halve the impact of the volume decline, and this is also what led us basically to the EUR 211 million in quarter three. Mentioned before, when we look to the regions, I think the regions itself, I think that the positive news is that we see a stabilization in Europe East compared to the first half year. That quarter three was clearly seeing some first signs of the recovery, a more positive development. We see also first government states which are announcing first subsidies, fiscal subsidies like in Poland or in Czech Republic, which are supporting basically also the construction activity.
This basically is also showing us. So this we find back in our sales dynamic or in our demand, basically in quarter three, when it's about Eastern Europe. Western Europe and North America are more or less as expected, when it's about the construction business or the ceramic business itself. And as mentioned before, the infrastructure is definitely something which contributed positively in quarter three and will also we see a more positive outlook also on the infrastructure business for the months to go. What does it mean for the first nine months? It was already mentioned, we announced revenues of almost EUR 3.3 billion, and EBITDA and operating EBITDA of EUR 665 million.
As we heard before, an operating EBITDA margin of slightly above 20%. Yeah, and also a strong net result of profit after tax of above EUR 300 million after the first nine months. Quickly go through also the revenue bridge. The major drivers here is, again, volume and price. After the first nine months, price is up +10% on a year-on-year comparison. Volumes are down around 20% on a year-on-year comparison. And you see that also and a rather strong impact on the effect side, and also a smaller one on the scope side, which brought us finally to revenues in the size of EUR 3.3 billion after the first nine months. EBITDA [wise], as announced, as mentioned before, EUR 665 million for the first nine months.
Again, here, yes, it is influenced, the decline basically by market volumes, which went down, and which is also what we've seen in our P&L due to lower utilization of our production sites. And on the other side, we consequently and very disciplined, on the one side, do our cost management initiatives. And on the other side, we consequently run our program for Self-Help initiatives. So this is basically contributing strongly to the EBITDA performance of the first nine months. And yeah, the strong pricing, I think, is clear also there. We still have prices above 10, above prior year for the first nine months, and also there you see that there is a strong price over cost outperformance also, which is contributing to the EUR 665 million.
As just mentioned, we keep going with our cost management initiatives. We started already last year when we have seen that first markets started to decline, and we consequently go that way. So this is something which we will not stop by the end of this year. We will also continue. So it is something where we consequently flexibilize more or less our fixed costs with the first focus. It is not run like Self-Help Program. it's really an initiative. It's a sum of initiatives where we take out fixed costs and to stabilize and to support basically profitability in our P&L.
In the first half year, you remember we had a EUR 26 million contribution, and now only in quarter three, cost management initiatives contributed with round about EUR 23 million, which brings us to the EUR 49 million, which we announced for the first nine months, and we expect around about a EUR 20 million for the last three months of this year. That brings me to the balance sheet or to the leverage numbers, to liquidity, basically, to cash management. And I think here it is important, as Heimo mentioned, we will manage down working capital to the range of round about 20% in relation to revenues.
This means that around a little bit higher amount and basically almost EUR 400 million, basically, is coming in from the working capital management, and a net amount of EUR 300 million, as it is mentioned here, arrives then in the net debt. So we will bring down production output on the one side to have normalized inventory levels for beginning of 2024. On the other side, also to have a normalized working capital, as we said, which should be at around 20% at year-end. So that means we confirm once more our financial KPIs, meaning that net debt by the end of the year will be below EUR 1.1 billion, that the financial leverage will be below 1.5 x, and working capital in the range of 20% for the end of 2023.
Handing back to Heimo, and Heimo will talk about what we expect for the rest of the next three months.
Ladies and gentlemen, yes, we talked extensively during this year about our end markets, and you have seen that obviously we kept our expectations at the level we have recently discussed about at our Capital Markets Day. So Europe, in the new build sector, on average, down by about 35% and 20% in the U.S. What we see when you look throughout the markets, that some of the Eastern European countries, big ones like Poland, the Czech Republic, and also some southern, eastern southern states, meaning on the Balkans have reached a little bit their bottom. We've seen some more activity already in the third quarter, also backed by some initiatives that local governments have taken in this area. So mortgage rates, however, remain high.
Inflation is also on certainly pretty high level compared to the past, but as I said, some stabilization in Eastern Europe. Western Europe, as I said already during half-year results call and during the Capital Markets Day, you will see a downward trend for the rest of the year because it needs to adjust, and this is a logical development because it comes a little later, but nothing to be preoccupied with. I think we are then going into next year with around those levels that we have indicated to you. In the U.S., you see also that the market is coming down a little bit. I would say that the high-end mortgage rates was about 8% in the U.S., bite a little bit now in the market, and project developers, and especially the big home builders, are not building so much anymore.
But as I said, this is already built into our expectations for this year, and I'm not seeing here major changes going into the first couple of months of next year. Renovation is, as I said, from a perspective of roofing, very important for Wienerberger, also important when you talk about piping division. So here I would say, what we see now, that renovation is, in certain countries, picking up due to also governmental interventions in the sense of interest rates, or tax breaks in certain areas. We need to see strong momentum still coming through from countries like Germany, which, where there's nothing done yet, and France, where there are some things discussed, to give here a sort of better guidance for next year. But for the rest of the year, it will stay around these levels.
Infrastructure has certainly considerably picked up, both in the U.S. and Europe, and we see this in the trend, as I said earlier, in quarter three, and this will go into quarter four as well. So all in all, as discussed, expected markets continue for the rest of the year. If we summarize our different major drivers for the rest of the year, you've seen a strong contribution coming from cost management. Here, as I said, very quick, very fast implementations throughout the Wienerberger Group. All in all, we will have about contribution of around EUR 70 million. Fixed cost reduction, here we are working on that, and I'm confident that we will reach this. We have obviously also on the CapEx side, I will show you a slide in a minute when we talk about CapEx reduction.
We adjusted, obviously, because we are running with less capacity utilization, so about EUR 30 million less CapEx, compared to the ones that we have guided for this year. And we will keep our price over cost outperformance in the range of about 4%-5% for the whole group for the whole year. And Self-Help Program, also very satisfactory, good contribution, and you will see another inflow of about EUR 11 million in the fourth quarter. So that we will reach the overall performance and the guided performance of this whole program, EUR 135 million for this. I can also say that Gerhard and myself are working on putting something together for the future. This will continue. This is part of our business, optimizing it, and we are investing in the business.
So you will have here clear guidance also with respect Self-Help Programs in the future. I talked about the CapEx. You see that we're bringing it down from EUR 140 million, the maintenance one, to EUR 125 million for this year. This is due to the asset base that is less utilized, obviously, and you see also how quick and fast we are here in order to monitor very well the spending part, and the special CapEx comes down to about EUR 150 million for the whole year. So about EUR 30 million CapEx cut for the whole year.
When we look at Wienerberger's performance, and I just want to put in perspective the year 2023 again in the overall performance, you see very clearly, ladies and gentlemen, this is actually the second-best year in the whole history of the company, compared to last year, which was extraordinary. But we will reach our EUR 800 million-EUR 820 million EBITDA for this year. So it puts us obviously in a very strong position as far as cash flow is concerned, cash conversion is concerned, and overall performance. Because you see here with the indication of the market trend, how deep the market actually drops in our end markets in 2023, and our performance stays very at a very good level.
So here you see that focusing on innovation, on systems, and a strong ESG footprint that we deliver, pays off at the end of the day and leads to a very strong result this year. So when we look at the fourth quarter in detail, so that we have no misunderstanding here, we are now at 665 at the end of the third quarter, how Gerhard has explained it. We foresee EUR 135 million-EUR 155 million EBITDA in this, the last quarter. For those who follow us very closely and might say, "This is not enough." or, "Why is it only this number?" It is, ladies and gentlemen, because we clearly said we put emphasis on working capital management and are deliberately managing our inventory level down.
You have heard from Gerhard, it's about a EUR 300 million reduction in net debt that we will achieve till the year-end. It means basically that we go on extended and earlier winter standstills in our production, especially on the brick side, meaning on the continental European clay block and facing brick activities. So this will lead, obviously, to a lower profitability in the fourth quarter because we have less capacity utilization. So this is the explanation and has obviously a major impact on the balance sheet with EUR 300 million less net debt at the year-end. So this is a deliberate choice from us in order to manage debt down. So this is the overall sort of explanation for the quarter three and the outlook. I think we are here in very good shape. I look for positively to this year.
As I said, very good performance from Wienerberger, considering the development of the end markets. Gerhard and myself are now ready to talk with you and answer your questions. Thank you very much for your attention. Operator?
At this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may click on the Q&A button on the left side of your screen and then raise your hand. If you are connected via phone, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two, or please press the lower your hand button. Anyone who has a question may click the Q&A and raise your hand button or press star followed by one at this time. This first question comes from the line of Brijesh Siya from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi. Hi, Heimo. Hi, Gerhard. So two questions from me. To start with, on the end market, you helpfully pointed out there's some green shoots happening in Eastern Europe, but Western Europe remains weak. Standing here and looking into next year, you see that the end markets are clearly not showing any signs of improvement, especially your the biggest market in residential. And expectation that the mortgage rates to remain high. In that scenario, how confident are you for next year, to kind of, in the surprising assumption? Which you are pointing towards a 2%-3% increase next year? So, have you kind of contacted with your customers or any early signs of how, what, how you are feeling about next year pricing?
Then, second one.
Well.
Yeah, sorry.
Let me just answer this one first. I think it's a very important one, and I thank you very much for this one because it's a critical one. I think what we have here is a very particular situation, and I talk on behalf of Europe and North America. In all our end markets, we have a very strong demand for housing. So people are actually waiting for housing, for new residential housing, for apartments, for houses, et cetera, and want to invest. So there is really, I don't call it a pent-up demand. It's a structural undersupply that we have in all these markets. There is, however, one big element. It's the access to financing, and it's obviously the rather high mortgage rates.
If you see that the Polish government or the Polish state, let's put it this way, is moving in direction to provide first-time house buyers or apartment or young generations, in the sense of cheap allowance or granting them benefits for this, you see the people move quickly. So just to address this very openly to you, when we see certain initiatives that have to be taken by states, governmental institutions, whoever, the market will move rather quickly and dramatically in the positive side. So this is something, it's a very particular and interesting situation. So you understand that from our perspective, running the company and managing, you need to be very flexible because demand levels might shoot up rather quickly in some of the end markets.
So we need to prepare, on the one side, fixed costs to manage them very thoroughly, on the other hand, have the capacity ready when it comes. So yes, there is good demand, strong- very strong actually, demand levels, depending on how the financial environment is moving next year. So this is the key issue. If interest rates show tendencies to come down, obviously, we see a strong shift in the marketplace. So that's what I'm trying to say, and that's the only thing to look at right now because there is this strong demand one. So there's no structural oversupply, nothing. So it's really focusing on the financing part when you talk about housing. Your second question was about pricing, and this is, I think, also an important aspect.
You need to see Wienerberger through the last couple of years. How we have changed business model? How we have changed our product portfolio? How we position ourselves in the market? It 's nothing to do with the commodity supplier in the past. We are proposing, as I said, solutions. We are also proposing whole systems, and therefore the pricing is a stronger and better one. So overall, I'm optimistic that this pricing we, with this one we go through into 2024. Sorry, from the 2023 level.
Yeah.
Okay, and thank you. The second one is from my side was about, y ou talked about adjusting capacities to cater to the current demand situation. But as you said, just now, that there could be a green shoots coming in, and it could be much quicker. You could see a strong demand coming in. So in that scenario, what would be your approach, given that you are cutting so much, and that's due in Q4? Then going into next year, will you be undersupplied if the demand starts picking up? And within that, if Heimo, sorry, Gerhard, if you could help us kind of understand what's the kind of cost to achieve those cost savings of EUR 70 million. I think H1 was EUR 5 million.
Will there be any additional cost to restart those plants when you go to the next year? Thank you.
On the cost side, I will leave it to Gerhard in a second. There won't be any additional cost to start this. This is normal procedure, by the way, when we start these factories. What we are doing right now is a very normal thing. You bring down capacities, meaning plants, from a capacity perspective, or you shut them down for winter standstills. The winter months is the most expensive time to produce because it's cold weather, clay preparation is somehow difficult, it's wet, et c. So it's a logical step. By the way, this used to always be the case in our industry. You do maintenance, people take their vacation, et c. So that's what we will do on an extended level. So we start a little earlier than usual.
To your point, are we undersupplied? No, we are not. We have very good stock levels. You know, we have filled them up. We said during this year, after last year, 2022, when we were sold out, we needed to put up some stock. That's what we did, and we are now on a very healthy level, and in some countries, we think that it is enough and keeps us busy for the next building season for the beginning. So we can actually go very comfortably in it.
If the pickup or if you correctly, when you point to the fact that it might come up, we are ready to start immediately. S o we will be able to supply. Help me once more with your question, especially on the cost side. What was?
Well, I was looking for how much of the cost you are spending to achieve the EUR 70 million of cost saving. I think you told us EUR 5 million at H1, so if you could give us for the full year.
You mean the cost for a restructuring, is this what I understand?
Yes.
Yeah. With first half year, we had around five. I expect that we will see another 10. In the last quarter, we basically constantly evaluating our plant network and also depending how markets are developing. Yeah, end markets, we also decide where we take out capacity or where we leave capacity in. At the moment, as we try to explain, this is more in the sense of a kind of a winter standstill. Where we bring down capacity for working capital management? By the way, this is something what we do normally or what we did all the years back, yeah?
There was an exceptional year in 2021, but all the years back, we had winter standstills also to manage the working capital on a level to start up again in 2024 in a normalized way. So out of these working capital, or let's say, out of the standstills, what we have due to working capital, there are no one-offs, yeah, what you have to expect. Yeah. So when we speak basically about structural adjustments, meaning that we really take out capacity for at least 12-24 months, then we would show it basically as a kind of a one-off, you know, or as a basically a separate position between operating EBITDA and reported EBITDA.
As mentioned, this was at half year, this was around about the five, and I expect an additional 10, and this is what you can foresee for the whole year 2023.
Understood. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question comes on the line of Gregor Kuglitsch with UBS. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi. Thank you for taking my question. So just a few, please. I think you mentioned some volume data, but could you just actually tell us for maybe quarter three, the volume effect or, and ideally also price for the three segments? That would be helpful. And then I think on the last call back in August, you were saying that you sort of had a EUR 50 million restocking benefit, if you want, in half one, and that's unwinding in half two. I wanna understand if that's basically unchanged from then, and then I guess how much of that actually is basically gonna drop into quarter four. And then I think at the final question, the Capital Markets Day, I think you gave some outlook on cost increases next year.
So if you care to comment where your hedging position is for next year. I think you don't put that in the slides anymore, but if you just give us a bit of a sense where the hedging position is. And I think the math was like you needed maybe a 2%-3% price increase to be sort of price cost neutral for next year. I don't know if that's still accurate. I just wanted to double check. Thank you.
If I may take up your last one. Yes, you're absolutely spot on with the 2% and 3%. We are well covered with respect to the energy and the other things. Obviously, costs, the inflation will come down significantly in big chunks of the business. But I would say about 4% cost inflation, yeah, that we need to cover. So your 2% to a max 3% is absolutely spot on on the pricing. Yes, from the working capital and inventory side, most will come in the fourth quarter. That's yeah.
Right. Basically, we started already in quarter three, but as I think, as you were mentioning, basically the EUR 50 million, what we mentioned also with half-year announcements, we took a first part in quarter three, and the rest around about 20-30 will come in in quarter four.
Okay. Thank you. And the volume and price?
Volume and price, basically, I thought I mentioned it. It is in quarter three, we have a minus in volume of -17%, the price up a +5%. And this is what you see, basically across Europe, this trend. And you see in North America, a little bit less or basically a less decline in volume. We are there at round about -10%, and price in quarter three of +3%.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question comes on the line of Axel Stasse with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I had two. I just wanted to understand, so, price was up 12% in first half year of this year, 15% in Q1, and now I think it's 10%, in the nine first months. Is this linked because of, you know, regions mix effect, or is it your piping, you know, end market that is growing quicker than expected? Can you maybe give a bit more flavor on this? And then, the second question was about lower energy prices versus last year. Have you seen any, maybe, you know, small independent bricks players cutting their prices and then giving back the cost inflation in some markets and therefore putting pressure on prices? Thank you.
To your second questions, as I've said already at the Capital Markets Day, we have, you know, we cover a lot of territory in North America and in Europe. Obviously, with the smaller, or I call them with our competitors in local markets, you see all sorts of developments because they have one side or maximum two sides. So they do certain things, but on the other side, it doesn't lead to price wars or major price erosion. So , it's more of a stability. And keep in mind that it's not only energy that hits them as well, they have also wage increases, also dramatic ones, and other increases and cost-wise. It's not that they have such great flexibility to trade down with the prices.
Also, the landscape of the industry has changed dramatically over the last 10 years. The important part of this price competition-related producers that were only focusing on pricing has already left the industry, so for good. So this is I think we have now strong local competitors that focus also on better quality and on high-priced products. So this is essentially to your second question, and the first one was relating obviously to perhaps.
Right. I think what you mentioned is right. You said the first half year was +12. We are now at +10, and it was even in the first quarter, basically, the pricing was even up +15. We already announced at that time that this will more flatten out as we are this year. On the ceramic side, we keep our prices up, so we keep the price increases, what we announced in the beginning of the year. We keep on that level and run through the whole year 2023. We had last year on the ceramic side, also during the year, the one or the other price increase. So that means also you see on the year-on-year comparison that the percentages basically are shifting. That's about the ceramic business.
On the piping business, please keep in mind that we have seen on the piping side last year, in the third quarter, basically the peak on the pricing. This was also the peak of the pricing of granulates. We also have seen during the last, let's say, round about 9-12 months, that the grain prices, the raw material prices, are slightly coming down. That means also that we adjusted slightly our prices with a certain delay, but also by keeping the margin stable. This is also where we see that basically the average price of the group is influenced by basically the development of the piping business, yeah.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Tobias Woerner with Stifel Europe. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Two, if I may, from my side, and I'm not sure whether they were asked because I came onto the call earlier, so later. So apologies in advance. Firstly, when I look through your presentation, you don't give the customary cost inflation number. Last, in the first half, it was 8%, where you were. Can you just update us on that and just give us a sense of what the wage inflation is in percentage term now for you? And then also the energy piece, and how much of the energy piece you're still hedged by? I'm not sure whether that was in the presentation either, but apologies again if it was. The second question relates to volumes.
You gave us an indication for the group volumes and prices. You are saying Western Europe is getting worse in Q3. Can you just give us a sense of where that comes from, which sector and which countries that relates to? Thank you very much.
Yes. For the first one, we didn't say it gets worse. It's as expected, I would say, that the volumes are developing, and we were talking about Western Europe. Here, it's obviously Germany that's the most, the most important one that drives the downward trend, but that's obviously clear to everybody, that the German real estate and new residential renovation markets are significantly down. So this is just a confirmation from the trend that we have seen. Nothing, nothing worrying. And on the other one, on the price side, what I understood from your question is, growth has come down obviously.
Right.
From the first half of the year.
Right.
We had, as you said, in the first half, you had announced an inflation of round about 8%. And as we said, first, we are also fighting against the inflation, our consumed inflation. Secondly, we also see that the granulate prices, as I've this, as I just explained before, are also coming down. Yeah. So what it means, that after the first nine months, cost inflation is round about 6%, and I expect for the whole year, a cost inflation even below the 6%, somewhere between 5%-6%.
This includes wage inflation as well?
This includes wage inflation.
For us, yeah. So, 2023 is covered by this. Energy has been fully hedged to within what we can hedge for this year, so this is also included in this, sort of, inflations. Yeah?
Right.
Okay, but has the level of hedge gone down or stayed the same for next year? Where are we with regards to the energy hedge?
Basically, we are fully hedged for next year. We are on a level of round about 90% for next year, yes, so.
Okay. And if I may just follow up, if you say, price inflation, rolling nine months is at six, ends up at five or four. If you take the price, price cost spread you mentioned earlier, 4- 5, then we should assume that, that pricing on average across the whole of 2023 should have been somewhere around 8%-9%. Is that fair? Is that correct or?
Well, as you said, 8%, yeah, for the whole year, yeah. This is what we expect on pricing on a year-on-year comparison for the full year 2023, yeah.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will hand over back to Wienerberger for any closing remarks.
Thank you, operator. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for taking the time and dialing in today. Our next conference call will be held on the 21st of February, 2024, where we will release our full year results for 2023. For today, I wish you a pleasant afternoon and goodbye.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.