Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ignitis Group Six Months 2024 Earnings Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Alternatively, you may submit your question via the webcast. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today. Speakers, you may begin.
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ignitis Group Results call for the first half year. I'm Ainė Riffel-Grinkevičienė, Head of Investor Relations, and I will moderate today's presentation. We are also joined by the CEO and CFO of Ignitis Group, who will present both the strategic and financial performance for the reporting period. This will be followed by a question and answer session. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on the management's current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Speakers, you may now begin.
Hello, everyone. Let me start with the highlights of the first half of 2024. First, on our strategic performance, we continued to grow our Green Capacities portfolio, adding 0.6 GW to 7.7 GW. We increased our installed capacity by 0.1 GW to 1.4 GW and achieved significant milestones as we completed 3 projects. Second, our sustainability efforts. We reduced Scope 2 emissions, maintained good occupational health metrics, and improved our ESG ratings. And finally, our financial performance. We increased our adjusted EBITDA by 14.3% to EUR 289.7 million. We grew our investments by 4.9% to EUR 422.3 million. Next, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed our group's BBB+ credit rating with a stable outlook.
Also, for six months, we proposed to distribute a dividend of EUR 0.663 per share. And followed by our strong results, we increased our 2024 adjusted EBITDA to EUR 450-480 million, from EUR 440-470 million. Our investment guidance remains in the range of EUR 850 million-1 billion. Let me now cover each highlight in more detail. Firstly, on the progress we have made in implementing our strategy in terms of green capacity additions. In the first half of 2024, we increased our Green Capacities portfolio by 0.6 GW, from 7.1-7.7 GW.
This is a result of greenfield capacity additions, as we secured land for the development of hybrid projects in Latvia, and secured grid capacity for our first BESS projects in Lithuania. We also increased our installed capacity from 1.3 GW to 1.4 GW, as the first Silesia Wind Farm project in Poland has reached COD in March. Vilnius CHP Biomass Unit has reached full COD for the remaining 21 MW heat and 21 MW electricity capacity in May. After the reporting period, we increased it further by 22.1 MW, as the Tauragė Solar Farm in Lithuania reached COD in July. Our secured capacity stood at 2.9 GW. In terms of the breakdown of our portfolio, it continues to be dominated by wind projects with a share of 4.6 GW.
Most of the projects are being developed in Lithuania, accounting for 4.5 GW. The generation part represents the largest part of our portfolio, with a capacity of 6.4 GW. Next, our progress on project execution. I would like to highlight a few points here. First, installed capacity. Since the end of 2023, we have completed three projects after reaching their COD. Silesia Wind Farm in Poland with a capacity of 50 MW. Vilnius CHP Biomass Unit reached full COD and is now operating at full capacity of 71 MW for electricity and 170 MW for the heat. We also completed our first hybrid project in Lithuania. We built a 22 MW solar farm on the site of an existing wind farm. We have also made progress with projects under construction.
I would like to draw your attention to the largest 300 MW wind farm under construction in the Baltic States in Kelmė, Lithuania, where we have installed the first wind turbine. It is 240 meters high and has an installed capacity of 7 MW. These are the largest and most powerful wind turbines to be built by the group. The wind farm is expected to reach COD in 2025, and will generate enough electricity to meet the needs of 250,000 households in Lithuania. On top of that, we made further progress with early development projects. We have secured land for the development of 314 MW of hybrid projects.
So to say, we are planning to develop wind farms near our Latvian solar projects, and secured around 260 MW of grid capacity for our first BESS projects in Lithuania. The implementation of remaining projects in the Green Capacities portfolio is progressing as planned, with no significant changes since Q1 2024, with one exception. At our 137 MW capacity, Silesia Wind Farm II project in Poland, we have completed the construction of the works, both on time and on budget, with all turbines erected, installed, and fully prepared for operation. However, due to the delays in reinforcing the grid, we now expect the wind farm to be in partial operation in Q4 2024, with its full capacity COD and operation in Q1 2025. Previously, we expected it in second half of 2024.
Finally, our progress towards sustainability excellence. Firstly, on greenhouse gas emissions. Our market-based total emissions increased by 14.4% year-over-year, due to increase in out-of-scope emissions as the result of Vilnius CHP Biomass Unit operations, as it has reached full COD for the remaining capacity of 21 MW and 21 MW of electricity in May 2024. Despite that, we reduced our Scope 2 emissions by 41.9% due to the use of renewable energy guarantees of origin for the share of Kruonis PSHP electricity consumption, and a share of electricity distribution Network losses. Second, we increased electricity generated by 36.7%, mainly due to the generation of new assets such as Mažeikiai Wind Farm, Silesia Wind Farm I, and Vilnius CHP Biomass Unit.
The growth was further supported by Elektrėnai complex, where all three units were operating simultaneously in commercial mode for the first time ever, due to the severely cold winter weather in Scandinavian countries, and decreased electricity production capacities in the region. This, in turn, resulted in the green share of generation decrease by 7.7 percentage points to 84.8%. Third, the total recordable injury rate for our employees increased to 1.00, as the number of safety incidents increased from 3 to 4. No fatal incidents were recorded. On ESG ratings and rankings, Sustainalytics improved the group's ESG risk rating from medium to low, and ISS ESG improved the group's rating from 52.7 points to 54.8 points, and the rating remained at - B level.
For now, I will conclude the review of our strategic performance and hand over to Jonas for the financials.
Thank you, Darius. Let me start with the financial highlights of the first half of 2024. We have again delivered a strong set of results. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 14.3% year-over-year. Growth was driven by better results in Green Capacities and Network segments. Adjusted net profit increased by 9.7% and reached EUR 164.6 million, driven by higher adjusted EBITDA. We have continued our extensive investments program. Our investments increased by 4.9% year-over-year and reached EUR 422.3 million. Return on capital employed decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 10.4%, mainly due to the lag between the deployment of capital investments and subsequent realization of returns.
Leverage metrics remained strong, with FFO to net debt at 32% and net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.7 times. Accordingly, S&P has reaffirmed our BBB+ credit rating with stable outlook. Finally, in line with our dividend policy, we propose to distribute a dividend of EUR 0.663 per share or EUR 48 million in total for the first half of 2024, which is 3% higher than last year. Of course, it is still subject to the decision of our EGM. Now, let's take a closer look at each of our KPIs. Starting with adjusted EBITDA, it has increased by EUR 36 million year-over-year and reached EUR 289.7 million.
Green Capacities EBITDA grew by EUR 25 million, mainly due to the launch of new assets and the higher captured electricity prices due to flexibility of our assets. Network EBITDA grew by EUR 27 million, mainly due to higher RAB as a result of continued investments into our Electricity Network and higher regulatory WACC, which reflects the higher interest rate environment. It also includes a temporary volume effect that will level off over the year. Reserve Capacities EBITDA was lower by EUR 7 million due to extraordinary conditions to earn additional return in the market during Q1 2023. Customers and Solutions EBITDA was lower by EUR 10 million, driven by lower B2B natural gas supply result, which was partly offset by better B2B electricity supply results in Latvia and Poland. Next, let's deep dive into the EBITDA of each segment.
Starting with Green Capacities, its EBITDA increased by 23% year-over-year and reached EUR 134.5 million. It continues to remain the largest contributor to the group's adjusted EBITDA, accounting for 46% of the total. The main drivers behind growth were, firstly, the launch of new assets, Mažeikiai Wind Farm and Vilnius CHP Biomass Unit in Lithuania, and Silesia Wind Farm I in Poland. Secondly, higher captured electricity prices, mainly due to flexibility of our assets. However, the growth was partly offset by OpEx increase as a result of continued intensive expansion. Moving on to the Network segment, its adjusted EBITDA grew by 30% and amounted to EUR 115.7 million.
The increase was mainly due to higher regulated asset base, which increased by 10.8% from EUR 1.4 billion to EUR 1.6 billion as a result of continued investments in the Electricity Network. Higher WACC set by the regulator, which increased from 4.1% to 5.1%, reflecting the higher interest rate environment, and a temporary volumes effect, which will level off during the year. Next, in Reserve Capacity segment, we delivered strong performance in both first halves of 2024 and 2023, as we utilized optionality to earn additional return in the market on top of the regulated return. However, due to extraordinary market conditions in Q1 2023, year-over-year EBITDA decreased from EUR 32 million to EUR 25 million.
Lastly, Customers and Solutions Adjusted EBITDA was lower by EUR 10 million year-over-year and amounted to EUR 11.8 million, driven by several factors. The decrease was driven by lower B2B natural gas supply results, and it was partly offset by better B2B electricity supply results in Latvia and Poland. Next, investments. We have increased investments by 4.9% year-over-year and reached EUR 422 million. Two-thirds of our investments were made in Green Capacities and one-third in the Network segment. Green Capacities investments increased by 15% and reached EUR 269.6 million, mainly because of the construction of Kelmė Wind Farm in Lithuania. In the Network segment, we invested EUR 135.8 million, mainly in Electricity Network expansion and maintenance.
The investments decreased year-on-year due to record high investments last year and smart meter installation projects approaching completion. Turning to our Net Working Capital numbers, it has decreased by 35% since the end of 2023, down to EUR 113.7 million at the end of Q2 2024. The main drivers for lower Net Working Capital were, decrease in inventory due to lower natural gas volumes in storage, and lower trade receivables, mainly due to lower energy prices and lower volume sold. Adding it all together, our free cash flow metric was negative as expected, and amounted to EUR -105 million as a result of investments made exceeding adjusted EBITDA and Net Working Capital change. Next, our leverage metrics.
Our net debt increased by 7% and stood at EUR 1.4 billion at the end of Q2 2024. FFO to net debt improved to 32%, well above 23% threshold of S&P credit rating agency required for BBB+ credit rating, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA stood at 2.7 times. As a result, S&P has reaffirmed our BBB+ credit rating with stable outlook. Finally, our guidance for 2024. Following our better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, we increased our full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance from EUR 440 million to EUR 470 million.... to EUR 450 million-EUR 480 million. There are no changes in directional adjusted EBITDA guidance for business segments.
Our investment guidance also remains unchanged in the range of EUR 850 million-EUR 1 billion. With that, I hand over the word to Darius.
Thank you, Jonas. Let me summarize Ignitis Group's performance in the first half of 2024. On our strategic performance, we increased our Green Capacities portfolio by 0.6 GW to 7.7 GW, and grew installed capacity by 0.1 GW to 1.4 GW. Next, on our sustainability initiatives, we reduced Scope 2 emissions, maintained good occupational health and safety performance, and improved our ESG ratings. Finally, on our financial performance, our adjusted EBITDA grew by 14.3% year-over-year and reached EUR 289.7 million. We increased our investments by 4.9% to EUR 422.3 million. In addition, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed the group's BBB+ credit rating with a stable outlook.
Also, in line with our dividend policy for the first half of this year, we propose to distribute dividend of EUR 0.663 per share. And finally, followed by our strong performance, we increase our full-year 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance from 400 million-470 million EUR to 450 million-480 million EUR. Our investment guidance remains in the range of EUR 850 million -1 billion . With that, I would like to thank you for listening to us today.
Thank you to the speakers. This concludes our presentation and opens the floor for Q&A session. The question, the first question we have: Congrats on mind-numbing results. Could you please elaborate a bit on the asset rotation program? For example, do you see any signs that the environment is improving and appetite from financial investors for buying non-controlling stakes in renewables projects is gradually returning, or it is still too gloomy out there? If so, what's hindering the market, in your view? Many thanks.
Yeah. So in terms of asset rotation, we stick to our policy of commenting the progress only after binding agreements are signed. To give you a general comment, the interest seems to be strong for our assets, which are well-developed, well-built, and contracted with bankable long-term PPAs.
Next question: Could you also please elaborate a bit on the PPA pricing trend? It seems that the average PPA price in concluded agreements is crawling down a bit. I wonder, what kind of average prices new PPA agreements are signed at, arguably lower? And what are the reasons behind that? And would also appreciate if you could indicate whether the average length of new PPA agreements is getting shorter or not. Thanks.
Yeah. So in terms of the PPA trends, we don't see any meaningful changes compared to the last quarter. So, when PPAs are being signed at similar levels, maybe for solar, we are seeing a downward trend in terms of PPA price levels, but overall, no meaningful changes for now.
Following question we have: Could you please quantify the negative effect on adjusted EBITDA and the Customers and Solutions segment from the normalized cost level in B2B natural gas supply in Q2 2024? And elaborate a bit on what this means, please. It seems that the natural gas prices were little changed quarter-over-quarter, so it's a bit puzzling to understand what could have caused negative profitability in gas trade in Q2.
Yeah. So, in terms of natural gas results, the result this year is actually more or less reflecting the true view. Well, last year, we had the positive impact from inventory write-down reversal, which means that last year the result was on the higher side due to this write-down reversal. So we did a write-down in 2022, and then it was reversed in 2023 first half, which means that the result in 2023 was slightly distorted. But this year, even though we see decline year-over-year, the natural gas result itself is more or less in the normal range.
Next question. H1 of this year, adjusted EBITDA reads around EUR 290 million or 60% of the updated guidance. Last year, H1 adjusted EBITDA accounted for around 50% of total annual EBITDA. Could you please elaborate what makes you anticipate deterioration in results in H2, given that the comparison base adjusted EBITDA in H2 2023 is very manageable?
Yeah. So this, firstly, this year-over-year proportional comparison is not always correct due to factors, you know, such as new asset launch dates, energy price development on a monthly basis, and other things. If we talk, specifically about H2 of 2024, we expect some deterioration compared to H1, due to the following reasons: firstly, Reserve Capacities had stronger than expected result in H1, which we don't expect in the base case in H2. And secondly, Network business had a positive temporary volume effect in H1, which will reverse in H2. So those two are the main reasons. There are some, some smaller ones as well, but we think, that the current proportions are, are reasonable.
One more question. 105 MW Kelmė Wind Farm I is almost complete. 13 out of 16 turbines are installed. There are rumors that first electricity produced could happen already September, October. What should we expect the first electricity produced there?
Yeah. So, you are right. Hopefully we'll have first power in Kelmė for this year. However, the main goal is obviously not the first power, but completing the project fully next year. So that's our focus and, you know, if we achieve first power this year, great. If not, still the main target is to complete the project within the timeline, which is communicated, which is next year.
Next question. Lithuania Offshore Wind second tender, where should the auction start? Is Ignitis going to participate? Are there plans to have a partner for this potential project?
So regarding the start date of the tender, according to the draft legal act, it is expected to start this year. Regarding our own participation and partnership approach, we are currently in the analysis phase, so no decisions have been made yet, so nothing more to comment at this point.
Next question: When should we expect first Ignitis commercial battery projects? Also, are there any steps already done towards hydrogen projects?
Yeah. So in terms of first commercial battery projects, what we have communicated in our strategic plan, that we expect first commercial scale batteries by 2027, that still holds. We are working on multiple projects, but now we haven't made any final investment decisions regarding the batteries yet. On the hydrogen projects, we are again in the analysis stage, exploring various options and, so I mean, nothing to comment at this point, but in the background, there's a team which is dedicated for that and working to make sure that we have those projects in the future.
Following question: What are the reasons for adjusted EBITDA being EUR -5.6 million in Customers and Solutions segment in Q2?
So the main reason continues to be the same. It's the negative result on the B2C electricity side.
One more question. Given that the guidance uplift is derived from Reserve Capacity segment and albeit its performance direction hasn't changed in H1 2024, nor you see it changing in H2, would it be fair to assume that the magnitude of adjusted EBITDA declining in second half of year in the segment will remain on par with what we have seen in H1? That is approximate 20%.
Yeah, I mean, so regarding the Reserve Capacities, we had better than expected first half, and in the second half, we expect to in the base case scenario, we expect to earn the usual level of EBITDA, you know, which we in the typical year we used to see around EUR 20 million coming from Reserve Capacities in a year. So that's our base case expectations for the second half, so half of that amount.
... Next question. Was it better clean spark spread that allowed to improve at the just, adjusted EBITDA in Q2 year-over-year in Reserve Capacity segment?
Yeah, you could say it like that. But what we are also seeing is due to more renewable generation in on the grid bigger volatility and in generation volumes, it seems that the opportunities to generate with the Reserve Capacity assets are more common. Which is, of course, also reflected in positive clean spark spread in these periods. But due to the volatility in the market, there are simply more opportunities for these assets to generate.
Next question: At which point will you consider tightening the guidance range for this year?
Well, I mean, cannot really comment on that. We provided the updated guidance with the range where we feel comfortable with. We think it's already quite, quite narrow. And we'll see whether we will gain more confidence as the year progresses. But currently, can't really comment if we will narrow the guidance anytime later on in the year.
One more question. You have about EUR 400 million in CapEx remaining to be done to complete the projects that are currently under construction. Could you elaborate, how will this be distributed between further loan drawdown and equity, cash on hand, plus operating cash flow? Is the external financing fully secured for all, the projects under construction?
Yeah. So, typical project for us is being financed by 60%-70% in debt, and then the remaining part in equity, which means cash generated by the operations. For the project financing part, you know, for the debt part, we are currently in a number of active financing processes, so not all of that debt has been secured yet. But we see no reason why it shouldn't be secured in the due course. If we have any delays in the financing, we have a very sizable buffer on the of the liquidity facilities, which is which currently stands at EUR 700 million or EUR 800 million.
We have quite a big buffer of the liquidity facilities, and the projects will be financed at 60%-70% through debt and remaining with equity.
The following question: Once the network's 10-year investment plan is completed, what would you deem to be ballpark figure for annual maintenance CapEx to maintain the grid? Or what's the maintenance CapEx level today if one excludes all investments that are related to expansion updates?
Yeah. So in terms of, you know, assuming that the ten-year investment plan is completed and there are no expansion investments, you know, the maintenance is at similar to our depreciation charge levels, which currently are at around EUR 100 million. But that, you know, that I would say a simplistic assumption, because to assume that after the ten-year, after this ten-year investment plan for the networks, that the expansion investments would stop, it's a simplified assumption. We think it will continue growing for the foreseeable future, knowing the age of the network and the need for investment into the network, if we want to successfully do the energy transition.
Next question. EstLink 2 is expected to be operational again by mid Q3. Do you see this bearing a risk for your guidance as it's assumed to be lower Baltic spot prices meaningfully?
No, we don't see risk for our guidance, because this is included in our estimate for the power prices in the second half of the year.
One more question. How is going a process of sale of 49% of the shares in Vilnius CHP? Have you gained any interest or concrete offers to buy 49% of Vilnius CHP shares?
Yeah, so I already gave a comment on our asset rotation plans. So again, we are not commenting the progress until binding agreements are signed. But in general, we see a strong interest for our assets, which are well-developed, well-constructed, and with a long-term bankable PPAs in place, and Vilnius CHP is one of such assets.
The following question: solar investments, what the situation is now? Are prices for installations still going down? Is Ignitis still preferring wind as producing at higher average price?
Yes. So for solar, there is still some downwards progression on the CapEx, but we still see the average CapEx of new solar at around EUR 500,000 per megawatt. And yes, for sure, we are still preferring wind, as it is a more natural technology for our region. And solar is reaching the saturation point in our region.
The last question: Are you considering share buybacks as well? If not, then why?
Well, currently, currently, we aren't considering buybacks. The reason why is that, our method for returning cash flows to to shareholders is through dividend, and we have a clear dividend policy, which is our main method of returning cash to the to the investors. And we are sticking to it in the foreseeable future.
That concludes today's earnings call. Before we close, I would like to take this opportunity to invite all shareholders to our first two-day International Investor Day 2024, which will take place on 13th and 14th of September. During the event, everyone will have the opportunity to meet the management and visit our two sites. Registration is open until 2nd of September. Thank you for joining us, and have a great rest of the day.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.