Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ignitis Grupė Six Months Results 2025 Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Alternatively, you may submit your question via the webcast. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speakers today. Speakers, you may begin.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Ignitis Grupė 's Earnings Call for the First Six Months of 2025. During today's session, we will present an overview of our recent strategic and financial performance. Following the presentation, we will address any questions you may have. Please note that this presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements reflect the current views, expectations, and assumptions of the management team. Actual results may differ materially. With that, I would like now to invite the management team to begin the presentation.
Good afternoon, everyone. We delivered solid performance in the first half of 2025, marked by consistent execution of our strategic priorities. First, our adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 300.8 million, making a 3.8% year-over-year increase. Second, we continued our strategy delivery, which was marked by installed capacity increased by 0.3 GW to 1.8 GW. Third, we preserved a robust balance sheet with the net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio standing strongly at 2.99x , despite our continued investment program. Lastly, in line with our dividend policy for the third half of this year, we intend to distribute a dividend of EUR 0.683. The decision is subject to our general meeting to be held on 10th of September 2025. Now, let me walk you through the key milestones achieved by each business segment. First, the progress of our largest business segment, Green Capacities. We increased our secured capacity portfolio by 0.3 GW to 3.4 GW.
This growth is attributed to pre-final investment decisions made for battery energy storage system projects in Lithuania, with a total capacity of 291 MW. It includes projects in Kelmė, Kruonis, and Mažeikiai. With a combined investment of around EUR 130 million, these projects are expected to reach COD in 2027. We also increased our installed capacity by 0.3 GW to 1.8 GW, following the commercial operation date of the 313.7 MW Kelmė wind farm in Lithuania, which is the largest in the Baltics. Total investments in Kelmė wind farm, including the acquisition price and construction costs, are expected to amount to around EUR 550 million. In addition, after the reporting period, we further increased our installed capacity by 0.1 GW to 1.9 GW, following the commercial operation date of two solar farms in Latvia: 94 MW capacity in Vārme solar farm and 72.5 MW capacity in Stelpe solar farm.
Total investments in the Vārme solar farm, including acquisition and construction, are expected to amount around EUR 66 million, and in the Stelpe solar farm, up to EUR 50 million. In the Networks business segment, we continue to make strong progress in our smart meter rollout program, which aims to install over 1.2 million smart meters by 2026. To date, the number of installed smart meters has reached 1.18 million. In the customers and solutions business segment, we further expanded our EV charging Networks across the Baltics. Since the end of 2024, we have installed 289 new charging points, bringing the total to 1,380 across Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. We signed a EUR 60 million financing agreement with EBRD to install up to 600 fast charging stations in the Baltics by the end of 2027.
A grant agreement of up to EUR 3.8 million under Connecting Europe Facility funding was signed to develop EV charging infrastructure in the Baltics. The actual funding amount will depend on the project scope and the eligibility assessment. Lastly, we signed a seven-year PPA with Litgrid, the Lithuanian transmission system operator, under which Litgrid will purchase up to 160 GWh of renewable electricity annually at a fixed price of EUR 74.5 per MWh, starting from January 2026. With the first half business segment achievements outlined, I would now like to turn to the key developments in our sustainability efforts. During the reporting period, our net electricity generated increased by 71.7% to 2.3 TWh. We increased generation from Green Capacities assets driven by new asset launched: Kelmė wind farms, Silesia 2 wind farms, and Vilnius CHP Biomass Unit.
However, our green share of generation decreased by 21 percentage points to 63.8% due to proportionally high electricity generation at Elektrėnai Complex. Turning to our greenhouse gas emissions, our total greenhouse gas emissions amounted to 2.61 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, representing a 26% year-over-year increase. The increase was primarily driven by a 116.6% increase in Scope 1 emissions, largely due to the new services provided by Elektrėnai Complex. Scope 2 emissions increased by 10% due to a lower share of losses covered by green certificates, and Scope 3 emissions increased by 15.8%, reflecting higher electricity sales in Poland and overall higher natural gas sales. Lastly, on our safety, we recorded no vital accidents with employee and contractor, total recordable injury rate spanning at 0.72 and 0.43, respectively. That concludes the review of our strategic performance. I will now hand over to Jonas to present the financial results.
Thank you, Darius. Let me start with the financial highlights for the first six months of 2025. Our adjusted EBITDA grew by 3.8% year-over-year and reached EUR 300.8 million, driven by strong results Green Capacities and Networks. adjusted net profit decreased by 11.2% and amounted to EUR 146.2 million, mainly due to higher depreciation and amortization expenses, as well as lower financial activity results. Our investments amounted to EUR 343.2 million, with 48.1% allocated to Networks and 45.6% directed to Green Capacities. However, with several projects reaching commercial operation or nearing completion, total investments decreased compared to the first six months of 2024. Return on capital employed decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 8.6%, mainly due to the lower result of the customers and solutions segment. Our leverage metrics remained strong, with a forecasted net debt ratio at 29.8% and net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA at 2.99 x.
Finally, in line with our dividend policy for the first six months of 2025, we intend to distribute a dividend of EUR 68.3 per share, which is 3% higher than last year. Now, let's take a closer look at each of our key performance indicators, starting with adjusted EBITDA. Firstly, Green Capacities EBITDA grew by 23.9% to EUR 166.6 million, driven by new assets launched and new services provided. Secondly, Networks' EBITDA grew by 14.6% and reached EUR 132.6 million, mainly due to higher regulated asset base as a result of continued investments in our electricity network and higher WACC set by the regulator. Third, Reserve Capacities EBITDA grew by 15.5% and reached EUR 29.1 million, mainly due to new services provided and higher volumes generated.
Finally, on our Customers and Solutions segment, its EBITDA amounted to EUR 27.7 million, and the year-over-year decrease was driven by lower natural gas B2B supply results and adverse effects from consumers under the current net metering scheme. Next, let's take a look at the EBITDA results of each segment in more detail. Starting with Green Capacities, it remains the largest contributor to our group's adjusted EBITDA, contributing to 55.4% of the total. The main drivers behind the 23.9% year-over-year increase were, firstly, the launch of new assets, including Silesia 2 wind farm in Poland and Kelmė wind farm in Lithuania. Secondly, stronger performance of our flexible assets, and lastly, newly introduced balancing capacity services.
Turning to the Networks segment, the growth in Networks-adjusted EBITDA was supported by a higher regulated asset base, which grew by 13% from EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 1.8 billion, driven by continued investments in the electricity network and an increase in WACC set by the regulator, which increased from 5.1% in 2024 to 5.8% in 2025. Next, reserve capacity segment. The main drivers behind the 15.5% year-over-year increase were new services provided and higher volumes generated. The growth was partly offset by lower captured gross profit margin in relation to lower captured electricity prices and higher natural gas prices. Finally, customers and solutions adjusted EBITDA was lowered by EUR 39.5 million year-over-year and amounted to EUR -27.7 million. The decrease was driven by two factors. First, lower natural gas B2B supply results, mainly because of more favorable margins secured in 2024.
Secondly, lower electricity supply results, driven by consumers under the current net metering scheme. Having reviewed the key factors behind our business segment EBITDA development, let's turn to investments. In H1 2025, our investments amounted to EUR 343.2 million. 48% of investments were made in Networks and 45.6% in the Green Capacities segment. Year-over-year, investments declined by 18.7%, driven by lower investments in Green Capacities as several projects reached COD or are nearing completion. Green Capacities investments decreased by 42% to EUR 156.4 million. The main investment areas in 2025 H1 were in solar, onshore wind, and hydropump storage projects. In the Networks segment, we invested EUR 165.2 million, which is 21.6% more than last year. This was driven by higher investments in electricity grid expansion through new connection points and upgrades. Next, our free cash flow.
We have managed to have a positive free cash flow of EUR 64 million, as EBITDA and change in networking capital offset the investments made. Turning to the leverage metrics, our net debt decreased by 0.1% and stood at EUR 1.6 billion at the end of Q2 2025. Looking at our main credit rating metrics as opposed to net debt, it has slightly improved to 29.8% and is well above the 23% threshold required to maintain AAA+ credit rating. Net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA has slightly decreased from 3.1x to 3.0x . Finally, our guidance for 2025. Following our Q2 performance, which was in line with our expectations, we reiterate our full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance of EUR 500 million- EUR 540 million and investment guidance of EUR 700 million- EUR 900 million. There have been no changes in the directional guidance for adjusted EBITDA by segment, nor in main drivers behind it.
With that, I will hand over to Darius to summarize our presentation.
Thank you, Jonas. On the third half of 2025, we delivered solid performance marked by consistent execution of our strategic priorities. First, our adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 308.8 million, marking a 3.8% year-over-year increase. Second, we continued our strategy delivery, which was marked by installed capacity increase by 0.3 GW to 1.8 GW. Third, we preserved a robust balance sheet with a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio standing strongly at 2.99x , despite our continued investment program. Fourth, in line with our dividend policy for the first six months of 2025, we intend to distribute a dividend of EUR 68.3 million per share. Lastly, we reiterate our guidance for 2025 with adjusted EBITDA between EUR 500 million and EUR 540 million and investments between EUR 700 million and EUR 900 million. With that, I would like to thank you for listening to us today.
Thank you to our speakers. We will now proceed with the Q&A session. Our first inquiry is, has Ignitis Grupė officially decided to participate in the second offshore wind tender? Has an application been submitted for the tender? Could you confirm that Ignitis Grupė intends to participate in the second tender without a partner? If so, why was the decision made and why was it not possible to find a partner?
We don't have updates on this matter. Partner selection process is ongoing. No decisions on participating in the second onshore tender have been made yet. We will announce all relevant information in accordance with legal requirements.
Thank you. Our next question is, on the recently announced seven-year supply agreement with Litgrid, can you confirm whether the price is fixed at EUR 74.5 per MWh for the entire term without indexation? What is the rationale behind that structure?
In terms of the price and it not being indexed, that we can confirm. In terms of rationale, it was a public tender organized by Litgrid, where they defined the conditions, and we have submitted the offer based on what we see as a fair market price for such an instrument at the moment.
Our next question, electricity supply volumes in Q2 were up 9.2% year-over-year, driven mainly by Polish markets. Was this growth fully backed by our own generation capacity through PPAs?
In terms of the Polish market, the majority of our Polish assets are either with CFDs for the majority of the volume or with external PPAs, which means that this growth was done mainly through external purchases. That being said, these external purchases are properly hedged and we are not taking the price exposure.
Another question, on the Tume solar farm , should we expect first power deliveries already this year?
In terms of Tume, both first power and COD is expected to take place next year.
Next question, on the debt side regarding bond refinancing or potentially new issuance, when should we expect initial actions here given that your report is currently at relatively comfortable levels?
Our earliest bond maturity is in 2027. We are likely to start preparatory works for refinancing next year, with a transaction taking place when the market conditions are right. We continue to monitor the situation on the capital markets, and when the timing is right, we would proceed with a transaction.
Another question, working capital was negative at the end of Q2. Is this normal, and how should we think about working capital movements going forward?
We like our negative working capital very much, but to be fair, I think it's not the base case scenario where we expect our working capital to be. Probably the base case level is somewhere closer to EUR 100 million in the positive territory with some seasonal fluctuations here and there. For this particular quarter, we did have an upside for our working capital from the collected balancing services fees, which we will be returning in the second half of the year to the consumers, which means that at the end of June, working capital is lower than normal by at least EUR 66 million of the amounts which will have to be returned to the consumers due to regulation.
Another question, on Kruonis unit 5 expansion project, what stage is the project currently at, and have there been any unforeseen challenges?
Kruonis is in the construction phase, progressing as planned. No major unforeseen challenges, just day-to-day challenges usual for such infrastructure projects.
Additional question, the resource regulator stated that their services provided by Ignitis Gamyba will result in around EUR 87 million in consumer savings, whereas you had earlier communicated about EUR 50 million in returns. What explains this gap, and could it mean that after refunds, your earnings from balancing capacities this year might be lower than last year despite the current unusual market conditions?
Starting from the last bit, no, we don't expect, we actually expect balancing services to generate more than last year in any case. As previously already mentioned during the last earnings call, what we are doing, we are returning not the full profits, but we are sharing the unplanned upside with the regulator and in the end consumers. We do expect this to have a positive impact for our full-year result. In terms of the amounts, EUR 87 million in consumer savings stated by VERT. This also includes the expected second half sharing, second half of the year sharing, because the actual amount for the first half is slightly above EUR 60 million, EUR 66 million to be precise.
Another question, for renewable parts that have started generating but are not yet at COD, is the output sold entirely on the day-ahead market, or is part of it already under PPAs? Day-ahead market prices have been trending lower recently. Is this also being reflected in the forward and PPA markets?
For all our assets, the base case is to enter into PPAs post expected COD and actually to even have a buffer in case CODs are delayed. PPAs usually start several months post-COD. Those assets which have started generating but are not COD'd yet, we are selling the output on the day-ahead market. In terms of the trends, yes, short-term trends are impacting long-term trends, but we need to be conscious that in the current energy mix with more solar on the grid, what we are seeing is lower power prices during the summer period and the sunny months of spring and autumn, but we are seeing higher prices during winter and less sunny months. This essentially means that the downward trend which we've seen in Q2 compared to Q1, for example, is the seasonality trend which does not necessarily indicate the lower average pricing levels.
Next question, VERT, the regulator announced yesterday the start of an investigation into possible manipulation in the balancing services market in Ignitis is the largest provider. How do you assess the situation internally and what potential risks do you see?
We don't see the risks on our side because all our bids are well calculated and reasonable. The investigation, as we understand, is due to some of the market participants providing very high bids. We can clearly state that these bids were not provided by us.
The following question, could you expect a more narrow guidance for adjusted EBITDA anytime soon, given that you're on track to deliver comfortably above the lower end of the guidance?
Currently, there's no such plan. We have confirmed the existing guidance, and no narrowing is foreseen for now.
Next question, what are the Networks segment WACC and RAB expectations for 2026?
We can't give the precise numbers, but to give you a bit of a feeling, for regulated asset base, the forecast is quite straightforward. You should take the investments made in the Networks and deduct the depreciation of that segment. That will give you the increase in RAB , which we expect for 2026. In terms of WACC, this is the standard formula. Even though the interest rates have declined somewhat, there is a lag in the WACC formula for our own cost of debt component. Because our average cost of debt has been growing gradually, we would expect some uptick in WACC from that, which would be offset by the general decrease in interest rate. WACC is a bit more difficult to forecast, but no material changes are expected.
Another question, how has wind profile discount developed in Q2, and what have you seen in Q3 so far?
Wind profile discount remains at the levels seen in previous quarters, gradually growing. We think that wind is not the biggest price discounts we are seeing in solar. Wind is doing relatively okay on the portfolio basis when you take into account all markets. For Q3, I cannot provide any guidance.
Another question, any new granularity you could share with us on the mFRR service, please?
The main mFRR service provider in our portfolio is Kruonis. It has been participating actively, Kruonis pump storage plant. It has been participating actively both on the capacity market, balancing capacity market, and also on the balancing energy market. That's about it.
Next question, what is the average planned IRR or payback period of green projects that are being undertaken? Also, what is the split of CapEx between growth and maintenance CapEx?
In terms of average planned IRR, that depends on a project-by-project basis. Our general rule is that we apply at least 100 basis points premium on top of our WACC or cost of capital for that specific project. We aim to earn at least 100 basis points on top of the project's cost of capital. Each project is different, right? A contracted wind project, a long-term contracted wind project will require a lower return than, for instance, an uncontracted battery project. The rule on which we base our investment decisions is to earn at least 100 basis points on top of our WACC. If the project is more risky, that premium increases to 200 basis points or even 300 basis points premium. In terms of the split between growth and maintenance CapEx, predominantly our CapEx is a growth CapEx.
The maintenance bit, I don't have the numbers in front of me right now, but it would be in the range of 10%- 20% of the total CapEx proportion. The majority of our CapEx in the Green Capacities, in Networks, and in customers and solutions is growth CapEx.
We have another question. Can you elaborate the details on the reported loss on gas supply segment?
Yes. The gas supply is the reason for the decline between last year and this year. It is more about that last year was substantially better than this year. The reason for that is that last year we still had more high-margin contracts coming from periods of high gas prices, and those contracts were in the B2B gas supply segment.
The following question, investments reach EUR 343 million. You still plan to reach at least EUR 700 million invested in 2025. Does it mean you plan more intensive investments in the second half of the year?
In short, we expect H2 to be a somewhat higher investment period, but not a lot. If you look at the numbers, half of EUR 700 million was invested in the first half. Even if we continue the same pace, we end up in our range. Yes, we do expect some acceleration.
Next question, do you see the opportunity on the market to sign past-produced PPAs for larger volumes, or the market lacks interest of such products?
I think still the base product in the market is baseload-based, so that's fair to say. That being said, we are working with our customers to develop this pay-as-produced market more, and we are seeing good signs of that. For instance, the next tender by Litgrid is likely to be pay-as-produced, while the previous one was baseload.
The following question, reserve capacity segment achieves significantly higher revenue and earnings in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. Could we expect a similar trend in the second half of this year?
Yeah. In terms of reserve capacities, we think that H1 was better than usual. That was driven by a bigger need of electronic gas-fired facilities to participate in the balancing market. We don't think that trend will continue for long because we are already seeing other market participants entering this market. On reserve capacities, we expect to have similar results to historical ones in H2.
Our next question, do you agree that the solar market in the Baltics has become crowded with project IRRs under pressure?
Solar for us has been a complementary technology for a few years now. We don't think it's a new trend. Standalone solar was challenging for a few years now. When we invest in solar, we look for additional value-added elements, such as a hybrid grid connection, which would allow us to connect other technologies to the same grid point, maybe share some infrastructure, etc. Solar is a complementary technology for us, and we think we can find better IRRs in other technologies.
One more question, in Q2, the Customers and Solutions segment's adjusted EBITDA decreased by EUR 7.9 million. The decline was mainly driven by negative natural gas inventory effects resulting from the weighted average inventory accounting method. The lower electricity supply result was driven by higher loss effect of consumers under the current net metering scheme. Could you please quantify those effects for Q2?
Yes. Indeed, the main reason was the consumer impact. We have disclosed that the full H1 consumer impact was EUR 13.3 million negative. If we would compare just Q2 result, that would be around EUR 7 million. The second effect, the average inventory accounting method, is a rather technical accounting treatment, not reflecting the actual result, but that was negative by a few million as well, comparing year-on-year.
One more question, in Q2, green capacity saw tangibly higher generation and revenues, elevated EBITDA remained flat. Part of the explanation provided in the report is higher operating expenses. Could you please help us understand what hides behind such OpEx?
There's a mix of components on the OpEx side, and those include both higher balancing fees. It also includes more OpEx due to expanding organization and expanding across multiple countries. It also includes some development activities on the offshore side, which are not capitalized.
Next question, what part of Lithuanian green portfolio is covered by long-term PPAs?
Yes. For this year, let me just check the number. For this year, we have 53% of green generation portfolio covered with long-term PPAs. For the next year, the level is at 61%. Also, to be precise, it doesn't only include PPAs, it includes the CFDs from the government as well. The contracted level is between 50% and 60% for the next several years.
Let us now address the last question. How Latvian PV generation will impact green portfolio results considering decreasing capture prices in the Baltics?
When we are making our investment decisions, we are incorporating those capture prices in the decision-making process, which means that these assets, when they are launched, they will generate positive EBITDA and positive investment returns for us.
This concludes our earnings call. For any follow-up questions, please contact our IR team. Thank you for your attention and stay safe.
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