American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)
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Morgan Stanley's 14th Annual Laguna Conference

Sep 16, 2026

Summary

Strong demand and premium revenue growth are driving year-over-year improvements. Strategic investments in customer experience, network, and loyalty programs support long-term profitability. Despite fuel volatility, cost discipline and a strong balance sheet position the company for leading margins and further growth from premium and co-brand initiatives.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Welcome back. Kicking off airlines content at the conference, we are very happy to welcome back American Airlines with CEO Robert Isom and CFO Devon May. Gentlemen, thank you so much for coming back to Laguna.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Ravi, great to see you.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you. Before we kick off, I want to say, for research disclosures, please see Morgan Stanley's research disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures, or please see our recent research. With that, Robert, plenty going on. I do not know if you want to maybe open up with a few thoughts on what you are seeing out there.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I would. First off, thanks for having us. I will just start with this. A lot of stuff going on in the world, but demand remains strong.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Oh.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

That is really great to see, and I know we are going to spend some time on it.

From an American Airlines perspective, premium global airline, we are doing all the right things to make sure that we reinforce that purpose.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

The storyline for us is still we are the airline with the greatest potential. It really is because of the opportunities we have ahead of us from a revenue perspective. We have talked a lot about the things that we are doing with our four pillars. Rebuilding our network.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We had significantly undergrown, since prior to the pandemic, our network. This is the first year we have been able to really put all the pieces together with pilots and aircraft deliveries and gate availability. We have done a really nice job of making sure that DFW and Charlotte, Miami, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Chicago, back to where we need them to be.

So feel really great about our network. On top of that, we've been doing everything possible to really lean into improving our customer experience.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

From that perspective, it's just every week, I think you've seen something coming out of American. It's not just the reconfigurations that have been in place for the last few years, anticipating this drive for premium revenue, but it's new Flagship Suite, and it's new lounge investment. On top of that, our customers are really telling us that we're doing the right things from an NPS perspective. There's more coming. You've seen the announcements that we've made about high-speed Wi-Fi, but it's not just that. Now it's Starlink and a return to seat back video.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

From a customer experience perspective, really leaning into it. That as well. You've got a network. You've got an experience. That allows us to really take advantage of the drive to premium revenues.

From that perspective, we're really pleased with what we see from not just people buying up, but also the work that we've done to restore our sales and distribution network.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We're finally back to where we were a couple of years ago, and there's just upside from there. The final pillar is the work that we've done from a co-brand perspective.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We've seen AAdvantage enrollments at record levels, and it's a great way to lead into the first year of a new relationship with Citi, and we're hitting the mark on all those fronts.

I don't like where fuel is today.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I know we'll talk a lot about that. You put fuel aside and the revenue performance that you've seen at American, I've never seen in my career outside of recovery after maybe the pandemic or 9/11.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I've never seen a revenue environment in terms of year-over-year improvement, especially for American. That bodes well for the future. As fuel stabilizes, it eventually will. I really look to us being back on track, producing much improved margins, producing free cash flow, and we've done a nice job of certainly strengthening our balance sheet and reducing our leverage. There's just more of that to come and much better news for our shareholders going forward.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. That's a great start. Lots to unpack there, which we'll get through. Maybe we can start out with, like you said, kind of shorter-term revenue trends. 2Q earnings call, you guys guided to 16%-19% revenue growth in 3Q. Said unit revenue should be stronger year-on-year in both 3Q and 4Q than the 2Q result. How has that trend kind of evolved since July, and how does it look like throughout the plan?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Yeah. From a revenue perspective, feel really good about the guide. It's not just from a revenue perspective. Our capacity guide, I feel really good about how we got on that. Also from a unit cost perspective, feel good about that. What I don't feel good about is the price of fuel.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

There's been tremendous volatility. But I'll go back to the revenue outlook, and it's broad-based strength.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I like what I see. As I mentioned from a corporate perspective, our indirect share is again now above where we had been prior to our sales and distribution issues. It's geographically, international is still strong, domestically, and it's front cabin and coach as well.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. That's all of the above. In your career, have you ever seen a time when it was all of the above like this?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

No. Again, I haven't, but we still have to deal with the price of fuel.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I'll say that I haven't seen when you really break down, it's not just crude. I think that if it were just a crude oil issue that we're dealing with right now, or $100 a barrel oil that we dealt with at various times in our history, we'd be in much better shape in terms of producing profits. The fact of the matter is, there's a crack spread on that.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

That has grown by 3x , and I really haven't seen that in my career also.

I go back from a revenue perspective, yeah, when you're talking about 16%-19% year-over-year increases.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I feel good about that. I do think that that is going to be durable.

Some of that from an industry perspective, obviously, price of fuel may have been a catalyst to drive some performance.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

But overall, I believe that the vast majority of that is something that we're going to be able to retain.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Exactly my next question, which is, you kind of highlighted the four pillars of the strategy before. A lot of that was idiosyncratic to American. How much of this improvement that you've seen in the yields year-to-date do you think is idiosyncratic to you, and you sort of would have got anyway, versus fuel pass-through?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Well, I go back to where we started the year.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

From a unit revenue perspective, I was really pleased with what we had seen in the fourth quarter last year and then first quarter of this year.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I think that some of that strength had already been built in.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

It's hard to discern exactly, but I do know this, that we're selling too much Basic Economy.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I know that we've seen a 5 percentage point improvement of buy-up from that perspective. In terms of our premium revenue, 30% of our seats are now producing 50% of our revenue.

When you talk about our four pillars of what we're doing, those 30% of seats, they're only going to grow in our fleet as the reconfigurations come on board, as the new aircraft deliveries come on. So I look at it as, hey, there's a rising tide that floats all boats.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

There's a chunk that American is benefiting from.

Certainly as we take a look out into the future, those four pillars, there's so much uniqueness to American and our underperformance that it provides the most upside.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep. Your boat is bigger than everybody else's. On that note, you mentioned the sales and distribution changes that you guys have made. A related change there was corporate as well, as you guys lean back into corporate. Managed corporate revenue was up 26% in 2Q, fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Are you now taking corporate share beyond what you had pre the distribution changes? What does that outlook look like?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Well, let me break down. First off, I feel great about people talking about numbers that are 26% greater year-over-year. We are going to produce another quarter of significant gains year-over-year. I look forward to a sixth quarter.

From a corporate perspective, yeah, we have regained where we had been.

That is good news. Look, I still do not believe that we are at our full fair share, and that suggests that there is a lot more upside.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Corporate for us, it's part of the whole indirect channel. We've done better. We're achieving higher than our fair share from the leisure side of the indirect channel. I feel great about that because there's more upside. From a corporate perspective, what we've done in terms of rebuilding, putting boots on the ground, getting deals in place that are now just coming to fruition.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

There's real upside there. Don't forget, from a corporate yield perspective, that is almost double.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

What we see from other channels. So I feel great about the opportunity to do more.

That's the goal for American.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. You mentioned fuel a few times for obvious reasons. Is there room to push more on price, given what fuel is doing? Or has the industry and you guys done several rounds already earlier this year? Is there a plan forward if this continues?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Well, certainly we're going to be in the game to produce the maximum amount of profitability we can over the long run.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

When you take into account fuel right now, yeah, we've absolutely done a great job of recapturing a tremendous amount of that expense. A lot of volatility as we look into the fourth quarter, I think we've seen fuel prices climb by over $1 billion.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

How quickly you can react to that also then comes down to all the things that we're doing specific to American Airlines.

But also from an industry perspective. On that front, if fuel prices remain as high as they are right now, I think that that's going to require some adjustments in terms of our capacity planning as we take a look out into the future. But where we stand right now, we've made great trade-offs. We've seen load factors dip a little bit.

But when you're taking a look at revenue performance that we've seen in double-digit unit revenue increases, that's a trade-off we're going to make every day of the week. But as we take a look forward, I do view that what we're doing from a product perspective to grow our premium seating, what we're doing from a buy-up perspective, I think that there's more room to go.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm. Got it. I'll come back to that in a second. But let's shift gears for a second and talk about those four pillars again. Again, you said that you have the greatest potential of any airline story in the industry. I want to ask you a classic sales enabling question.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Sure.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

But where are we on each of those four pillars, and how much more room do you have to push on each one of them, if you can kind of give a little bit of a forward look for the pillars?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Right. Well, from a customer experience perspective, I like what I see in terms of trends, NPS scores improving, people reacting very favorably to every new announcement.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

But let's face it, we've got a lot of work in the pipeline. From a lounge perspective, you'll see more new lounge openings at American over the next couple of years than we've done in decades.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

From a fleet perspective, you're starting to see the A319 reconfigurations and A320 reconfigurations come out. A321XLR are just now starting to deliver.

That will become the backbone of our transcon service coming up, as well as secondary city in Europe flying. We're seeing the first of our 777-300ER mods come on.

Our 777-200ER will be moving before you know it. From the perspective of, hey, the revenue performance we have seen so far, that is without.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Without all this, okay.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Premium seating by the end of the decade for us, growing by about 50%.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

That is something that I think is really notable. All the improvements that we are making from a product perspective, in-flight amenities, all of those things are relatively new introductions, whether it is coffee or champagne or new snacks. All that is hitting right now, and I think is gaining a tremendous amount of traction. I view that we are in the early stages from a customer experience perspective.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

But look, seat back video's going to take a few years. We're going to have high-speed Starlink Wi-Fi on a.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Significant chunk of our fleet as we move out through 2027. All that early stages, but that just bodes well for the future. We've got work to do from a reliability perspective.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I like what we've done this past year in DFW. The 13-bank system has greatly improved our ability to service customers during really tough operating conditions. And no matter the operating conditions, we'll have to be smart about it. We've grown. I'll talk network next. We've grown, I think, to where we have a competitive network. We've always had the most comprehensive North American footprint that ties into an international capability with partners in our own organic flying.

That I think is second to none. But we've had some things to shore up. So in Chicago, look, I think we feel pretty comfortable with where we're at right now.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We're going to get five new gates.

As we move into the end of the year, that's going to really allow us to operate that schedule in a better fashion.

In D.C.A., recovering from last year and all the disruption that came from that, D.C.A. has returned to one of our top- performing hubs, and I feel good about the work that's being done on the ground to allow that location to perform well. Philadelphia, we've grown in significantly. Miami's the largest schedule that we've ever had. Charlotte is where it's going to be.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

For a little bit.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Just because of airspace and ground constraints. DFW is, I think, a place that as we bring on the new T erminal F, as we bring on the new satellite A and satellite Cs, I think there's a tremendous amount of growth. I think you know, in North Texas, it's an incredible environment.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right. Yeah.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

You couldn't be in a better spot.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Have forecasting the world's largest single carrier hub as we move into 2030 and beyond.

Phoenix, we've stabilized. We got a little bit of growth coming there. Then as you look out into Los Angeles, as we move into 2028, we'll regain, I think, our ability to have the largest footprint of anybody just because of gate T4 and T5 reconstruction. So from a network perspective, some upside out there.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

In terms of development in all the right places in the country. I'd like to underscore that. While we'll probably not grow, we're not going to grow as much in 2027.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

As we did in 2026.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

There's a lot more that American can do over the long run, and we've got a fleet that is really set up to do it.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

From a premium perspective, I like what I see. We're going to have new product out there, and so the game of trying to segment and trying to make sure that customers have a product that they value.

We're doing the right things from that perspective.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

From an AAdvantage, I mentioned record enrollments. A lot of that is driven by the free Wi-Fi. That will ultimately really turbocharge the relationship with Citi as well. I look at that. You increase enrollments, that gives you the opportunity to improve co-brand penetration.

Ultimately, that translates into spend. Where are we at from that? This year, we are looking at, from a co-brand perspective, we are looking at cash remuneration of about $8 billion. As we talked about when we kicked off the deal with Citi, as we look out into 2030, that number is going to grow to over $10 billion.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We anticipate another $1.5 billion of pre-tax profitability. So where are we at in all of that? I would say there is a tremendous amount of upside.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

That was incredibly comprehensive.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Yeah.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

And clearly there is a lot going on, a lot more to come. Again, to that point, since your last Investor Day, a lot has changed with the industry, a lot has changed with yourselves. What does this mean in terms of financial targets? You kind of just mentioned the $1.5 billion in co-brand alone, but what kind of profitability upside do you see from these levers going forward?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Well, Ravi, again, from where we started the year I had anticipated, but guide to $1.5 billion pretax, yeah .

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

You were going to [inaudible] .

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

And that was in late, we were approaching earnings in the second quarter. But at the beginning of the year, I had anticipated profitability considerably higher, but for fuel.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I think that we would've shown, again, but for fuel, a huge down payment on what we had talked about at that investor day, which was mid to higher single digit pretax.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Margins and then mid-teen, potentially plus EBITDA margins.

I still see that in our future. Fuel's not going to be where it's at forever.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

If on that basis, you take a look at American, and you have to look out a little bit, you got to get past fuel. Certainly, we're not valued where we should be.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

But I think one other important point to note, we've got the most upside from a revenue perspective.

And I'd just like to underscore that that is not going to require just a ridiculous investment from a capital perspective.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure. Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We've got a fleet that's set for the vast majority of things. Devon can speak more to this. We're pretty well set in terms of capital expenditures, and it's fairly smooth. And then as we take a look out beyond just capital expenditures, I really like what we've done from a cost management perspective. We've always had a reputation for being very efficient. That's only grown. And I'll just underscore, I feel really confident about where we're going to come in in the third quarter from a unit cost perspective. And that's going to be a hallmark. That's what we're going to be able to build on. And that's not a trait that Americans are going to lose.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Just on that point, it feels like something's changed with this industry where historically there was this hyper-focus on CASM-ex with good reason. Investors may have got into that little bit of a hyper-focus on CASM-ex as well. But with all of these revenue levers that you guys can now pull, what is the right benchmark to judge your success? Is it margin? Is it EBIT growth? Is it CASM-ex? Is it RASM? How would you package all that? Are we in a world of higher than expected CASM-ex, but that's more than offset by RASM growth, or how do you see that?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I'd just say this. Look, at the end of the day, we're about growing our margins and producing profitability.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Okay? Plain and simple.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I do know this as well. From a revenue perspective, we're making all the right investments. We're not capital constrained in any way.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Devon and the finance team has set us up very well.

You know what we've done from our balance sheet.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Absolutely.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We've improved total debt position from a high of $54 billion just a handful of years ago to $36 billion.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Or $35 billion, is the target. We've done the right things from that perspective, and I'd just say this, revenue is our upside.

That is our focus, but we are not going to lose our cost discipline.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We are not. Look, we have never been in a position where we have been undisciplined and as I take a look going forward, we can do both.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Understood. Maybe switch gears a little bit. You addressed premium quite a few times. Obviously big focus area for you guys idiosyncratically. Big focus area for the industry as well, right?

Again, this also feels like a little bit of a change for the industry where historically it was maybe a little bit of a compete with the low-cost guys as an industry 10 years ago. Now the industry is becoming more premium as a whole. Are you comfortable with the entire industry going premium? Do you think there is enough room there for even the ultra-low-cost carrier introducing lounges and premium seating and such? Almost like a race to the top instead of a race to the bottom.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

The race to the top is much better. From a competitive positioning, bring it on.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We are ready to go. Look, we have some incredible advantages.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

The hub network we bring to the table every day, it allows us to have the most comprehensive North American network.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

It is something that you can build on. You know what? That scale is important. It is especially important when there are disruptions. It is even more important when you are going in and trying to sell to a corporate customer.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

It's not easy to develop a lounge network and reputation. I'd say also this, the AAdvantage program, the industry's first

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Loyalty program, the industry's largest.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Largest.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We offer day in and day out more value in that program for our customers than anyone else.

You go to whatever publication you want, I feel really comfortable about that. There's some things that we have in place.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We have a great fleet.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We have incredible experience in operating internationally. Whether it is the biggest business markets in the world, we have the best partners. If you are talking Tokyo or if you are talking London.

If you are talking Sydney, the biggest business markets in the world, that is always going to be a part of American.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Bring on the competition. I think it is a good thing. I do not think that the world is such that, you referenced the ULCCs 10, 15 years ago. I do not think that you can race to the bottom in terms of wages for team members.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

American pays the best in the business.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We have more unionized team members than anyone else.

I'm incredibly proud of that.

You know what, though? That ability to undercut from that perspective, I think, is really a thing of the past. I also think that from an aircraft perspective, there aren't cheap aircraft out there right now.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

You take a look at supply chain issues.

Boeing and Airbus' skyline is sold out long into the future. As the operator of the world's largest fleet, I feel really good about American's position with Embraer and Boeing and Airbus and there's no hesitation from my perspective that we can compete there. I also say that when it comes to operating in all the best airports, look, there's barriers that you have to overcome. It's expensive.

To put new gates in. It's expensive to operate in some of the newly rebuilt airports. From that perspective, American has the scale to really ensure that we can be competitive with anybody. So yeah, I kind of like the setup for the industry, and I think we have a head start, and we have the most opportunity ahead of us.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right, absolutely. I wanted to follow up on the Citi relationship as well. You obviously reset that contract recently. Much better economics. You kind of highlighted the $1.5 billion EBIT opportunity, $10 billion revenue target for 2030. But I think on your recent call, you also said that you saw that as one of the largest remaining opportunities to close the revenue gap versus peers. Is this something that just naturally evolves as you go deeper in that relationship, or are there certain levers that you guys need to pull to maximize what you can do there on a co-brand perspective?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Well, I look at the relationship with Citi and Jane Fraser and I have sat down about this. This is tying our brands together.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

So there's a constant effort to take a look at what you can be doing more. The framework of the contract is such that it's mutually beneficial for us to grow the pie.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

That's a great position to be in. You've seen some things with some of the modifications that we've made in the program already with our AAdvantage Executive Platinum card.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

You've seen us launch a new card. We're doing things from a small, medium-sized business perspective that we haven't done before. All of those efforts are going to ultimately lead to an expanded base of customers. Then what I really like is the flexibility of our offerings that just encourage a much, much tighter relationship in the American Airlines ecosystem.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Understood. Any questions from the audience? [inaudible] Can we get one here?

Speaker 3

Hi, guys. Just wondering, at the midpoint of the current 2026 guide, I know you had expected positive free cash flow and lower net debt, despite the roughly $6 billion of incremental fuel expense. Obviously, we've seen fuel move up since then. Just wondering how you guys are thinking about the guidance ranges you've instituted since fuel has trended throughout the quarter.

Devon May
CFO, American Airlines

Well, as Robert said earlier, for third quarter, we feel great about it, and for everything that is controllable, we feel great about it. For third quarter, capacity production is going to come in inline. Our unit cost performance is going to be coming on very much in line. Revenue performance looks really strong right now. Fuel is not going to be that much different. July and August are really similar to our guidance numbers. It spiked up a little bit here in September, but overall, for the third quarter, we feel great. What has happened in the last four weeks, though, is fuel has run up probably $1 a gallon or something like that for the fourth quarter alone. We have seen a big spike in fuel that obviously would not have been part of the forward guide based on the forward curve back in July.

But in terms of what is controllable, revenue performance is in line with what our expectations are. Our cost performance is in line with what our expectations are. On the capacity side, we will continue to adjust capacity for late in the fourth quarter here, just given what has happened in fuel. But in terms of what is controllable, we feel great about it. We look at it right now, our revenue performance and especially our unit revenue performance, less our controllable cost performance, that gap we think is going to be industry leading. That gap is going to be exactly what we expected it to be three months ago. It is just fuel is this variable right now that is moving around on us.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Any other questions? Yeah, one up here.

Speaker 5

Hi, guys. Question on my side. Could you maybe elaborate on the recapture rates intra-U.S. versus the transatlantic routes? Is it fair to say that the competitive landscape intra-U.S. is maybe softer than transatlantic? My question is more on the yields. Should we expect stronger yields intra-U.S. going forwards, but also transatlantic trends to be strong yield- wise, or should we see a huge gap going forwards on that?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I will start, and from a transatlantic perspective, as I started out earlier, that has been one of our highest performing regions from an overall revenue perspective and unit revenue perspective as well. Outbound U.S. has led the way on that. I would really like to see us in a position where we are seeing inbound even approach that or are better at. We are certainly not there right now. But that, I believe, is upside to us.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Just specific, London Heathrow is very strong. I love our position and our relationship with BA and IAG. It really cements a relationship and a position where we have the industry-leading network into London, and that bodes well for the future.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Any other questions? Yeah, one here.

Speaker 6

With the $1 rise in fuel prices that you've seen versus your last guidance, is there any risk that you might need to adjust your full-year guidance down? If so, is there any risk that your free cash flow could go negative for the year?

Devon May
CFO, American Airlines

Yeah. We'll see where fuel ends up over the next handful of weeks here, but a dollar, every penny is worth about $10 million in a quarter, so that's the billion-dollar run-up we're seeing in the fourth quarter. The great thing is we're coming in with a stronger balance sheet or less debt than we've had in more than a decade. The company is sitting on a lot of liquidity. We feel really good about the positioning we have right now. We'll see where fuel ends up, and we'll guide to fourth quarter when we get to earnings call.

Any other questions?

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, I wanted to go back to capacity planning for a second. Obviously, this is a minute-by-minute change of conditions out there. Are you guys changing the way you're planning capacity in as far out as you can? Maybe starting the lower base, or is there anything you can do, or is it just a case of reacting to what's happening?

Devon May
CFO, American Airlines

Well, I don't think there's anything that's new or new science around how we capacity plan.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Devon May
CFO, American Airlines

We're driving capacity for long-term earnings.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Devon May
CFO, American Airlines

There's going to be some of this variability in the short term, and there are times where you're just going to want to pull a little capacity out when we see a rise in fuel like we're seeing right now.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Devon May
CFO, American Airlines

We'll go ahead, and we'll touch up December because of that. But it is important for us to continue to grow back the network as Robert's talked about. We're looking at our fourth quarter right now. We've grown fourth quarter capacity less than anybody else versus where we were six or seven years ago.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Devon May
CFO, American Airlines

For us to have a competitive schedule, we do have to have some of this capacity back in the market, and that's why you're seeing some growth here out in Q4, and we think that's long-term profit generating for American Airlines. As Robert mentioned, we look out to 2027. We are probably going to grow a little less in 2027 than we would've expected to grow three months ago or six months ago. We're mindful of what's happening, both in terms of the fuel environment, how much revenue we're able to produce, and at the end of it's just how much profitability we're able to get out of it. But we got a lot of great people over in the capacity planning area.

They partner closely with finance and operations, and we produce a schedule that is going to be great for our customers and also something that drives short-term and long-term profitability.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Robert, you kicked off your comments with some very positive color on demand overall. Do you guys have a decent look at 4Q at this point? How much of that is booked and do you have a sense of what holiday is shaping up like?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Well, there is a lot to the fourth quarter to be booked. Where are we at right now in terms of.

Devon May
CFO, American Airlines

25%..

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

We are about 25%. You take a look at the momentum that we are closing out the third quarter with, and that gives you a lot of optimism about what you see and conviction that trends are moving in the right direction. Fourth quarter is obviously one of our strongest quarters and especially as we close out the year. The trends I see right now are all in alignment with us closing out the year in a strong fashion. I will speak to this. We talked a lot about premium, but look, we have seen nice performance from a coach perspective as well.

And I think that speaks to the broader economy, which, look, yeah, there's a lot of purchasing power from the higher income bands. But I think that the job market is such that whether you're high, medium, or lower income segments, there's strength right now in all those, and I think it speaks to the job market. So obviously we watch just about everything we can in the future. And as Devin said, we've got a schedule out there that's selling well. We may make some tweaks in December, but I think we're really set up for the fourth quarter and certainly 2027 and beyond.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. So maybe just to bring us home here, the theme of our airline's outlook for each of the last three years is if next year is a normal year, it's going to be great for the airlines. So I think what's been happening is my fault because I want to stop writing about that in my outlooks. But if 2027 is a normal year, what can investors expect from American, kind of as you capture that potential to get back to it?

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

So Ravi, I think I'm your case study in that, okay?

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yes.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

I've been talking about the potential for American for some time, and it's there.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

And to a certain extent, I hate to say, "Hey, you've got to have some patience," or there's delayed gratification in this business. But in the case of American Airlines, again, but for fuel.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Okay, and the volatility that we're experiencing, American Airlines would, this year, be producing one of the biggest turnarounds in terms of overall profitability of anyone. So as we take a look into next year, and certainly we've got to plan on higher fuel costs for longer.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

And we're going to do that. But the underlying strength of American, built on our four pillars and built on a cost structure that is best in the business in terms of efficiency, when we see some normalcy, those projections that we talked about from a net income margin perspective, from an EBITDA margin perspective, free cash flow, and de-leveraging, those are all well within our grasp. We would be experiencing those this year but for the volatility in fuel.

Got it.

That's not going to be with us forever.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep. Here's hoping in next year at Laguna, we're talking about how boring 2027 is.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Hey.

How nothing has happened and how amazing that is.

I will be back to celebrate that with you. Again, thanks for the time and.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Amazing.

Robert Isom
CEO, American Airlines Group

Appreciate the opportunity to talk about the upside at American.

Ravi Shanker
Lead Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Absolutely. Thank you, Robert.