Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to ACV's Analyst Day for 2023. Very excited to have everybody back in town. My name is Tim Fox. I'm happy to be the leader of the IR team here at ACV, and on behalf of the entire team, welcome. Glad you could join us today. We've got a great agenda teed up. It's gonna be a little tighter than last year, time-wise, so we're gonna leave a little extra room at the end for Bill to do a real deep dive, and then be able to do a little bit more Q&A. George is gonna kick it off, talk about our addressable market, how we're winning in the market today, a little bit of a high-level view of our product portfolio.
Then Mike and Craig are gonna dive into how we're continuing to gain share in dealer wholesale, but also expand our TAM. Vikas this year is again gonna do a little tech panel, a little bit of a smaller team, but dive into some of the cool stuff we're doing. Of course, talk a little bit about AI. We'll take a break, and then Bill's actually going to spend about half an hour, 35 minutes or so, talking about the business model, path to profitability and our 2026 targets, and then we'll end the day with Q&A. With that, I'd like to not hand it over to George yet. We will be making forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and also discussing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.
You can find all this information on our, on our website, and with that, let me turn it over to George.
Thanks, Tim. All right, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Those who have flew in from Denver, California, all over, spending the day with us, we really appreciate it. We've been really excited about today, and again, what I'm most excited about is you're gonna get to see my team. You're gonna get to see my team. We're gonna talk about growth. We're gonna talk about all the things that we're excited about over here. I'll be back on at the end about Q&A, but just to set the day, you're gonna hear some from great leaders. You're gonna see why I believe in them and why they're executing on our vision. Just a refresher, we operate in a massive industry. It's complex, it's fragmented, and it's inefficient. Every used vehicle has its own story, its own imperfections, and ultimately, its own value.
Our mission is to build the most trusted and efficient digital marketplaces and data solutions that makes it easy for dealers, commercial partners, and their end consumers to realize the actual cash value of a vehicle. Today, you're gonna hear about our progress, both on technology and our team, and how we're gonna accomplish our mission. It's been an extraordinary and eventful journey over the past eight years, right? When you think about the IPO, and I was standing in front of most many of you, we didn't know everything that was gonna hit us, but we've done an incredible job, you know, navigating. We actually sold our first car eight years ago today, so cool day to have this event, right? A little anniversary. We generated our first $1 million in revenue in 2016. $400 million in revenue in 2022.
Obviously, just extraordinary growth. There was this thing called COVID that happened in the middle of all that. The world changed a little bit on us, but I'm just so proud of our team. We inspected 1 million cars last year alone. We had over 24,000 dealers transact $9 billion of GMV last year, despite a nearly 30% contraction for the dealer wholesale market. We delivered innovations to drive customer acquisition, enhance our marketplace experience, improve operations, and expand our TAM. With nearly $14 billion spent on fees and services in the U.S. alone, we have a large and untapped market opportunity. The majority of our revenue, as you all know, comes from dealer wholesale. I'm gonna put that into two segments now, and we'll start...
You'll hear us moving forward, more carefully break dealer wholesale into two segments, just so we can think about the TAM and how it could change over the next few years. The first segment, where our primary growth has been, is retail-oriented dealers. Dealers that tend to retail cars, they have trades coming in, as well as aged inventory that then lead their way to dealer wholesale. Think about that as one of the two segments within dealer wholesale. The second is the emerging segment. The emerging segment is dealers acquiring cars from consumers who are strictly looking to sell their car. There'll be a lot of different types of dealers who are just buying. We think that segment taps into the peer-to-peer TAM. We're starting to see this today. You'll hear us talk about this a little bit more.
We'll start to separate it as we kind of go between now and 2026. Commercial historically represented a TAM of 8 million units a year. You'll hear about our team talk about it, is, of course, has a lot lower today, but it's very strategic. That market will also come back, and you're going to hear about our strategy and execution for commercial. SAS and data services is an adjacent opportunity with over $1 billion spent a year today, just in our category. The way we did this math was just on data services, pricing, tools, not all software, not all services, just the things related to the things ACV is doing. We think AI totally disrupts this category. International expansion and broadening our marketplace to all things that move will remain as long-term opportunities. We'll talk about those things today, but they remain great opportunities.
As we go out, we address the things I just talked about. Hopefully, you'll be hear us talk about these other areas next year and in the years moving forward. We'll spend a few minutes discussing the wholesale automotive market within the context of the broader automotive market. I'll provide a recap of the past few years and why we believe the market is starting to turn the corner. New vehicle sales and trades are a critical input into the wholesale market. Pandemic-related challenges created supply impacts in production, which obviously led to less new vehicle sales. Less new vehicle sales led to less trades. That was the challenge. Over the past four months, we've seen year-over-year seller growth. Now the positive signs are here, and even though new inventory remains low across the country, these trends show it heading in the right direction.
The used vehicle retail market has been under pressure. Elevated prices and high interest rates are creating affordability issues. Also, an ongoing challenge, and this is an area you'll see us talking a little bit more about both last, in our last earnings call and today, is there's about 30% less cars on dealers' lots, used vehicles, than there was in 2019. When you think about the broad industry of between the defleeting that typically would have take place, the off-lease coming, all the great inventory, there's about 30% less used cars on dealers' lots. When you take that as a high level, that lack of inventory forced dealers to keep and try to retail types of vehicles that they would typically wholesale.
That created, at least in the short term, really a retraction in the size for the dealer wholesale market. Recently, this used vehicle inventory is starting to edge up, and even though it will take time to normalize, over the past two months, when we studied the data, inventory data, dealers are starting to wholesale versus retail, a slightly higher percentage of cars being traded in. We haven't seen that from COVID to now. All we kept seeing was dealers keeping more, keeping more, keeping more. Over the last two months, we look at the trends, we're just starting to see, as this inventory is coming up, dealers are more willing to wholesale. For us, we look at that as a very positive sign. What does this mean for the dealer wholesale market?
Looking back at 2022, we estimate that the dealer wholesale market contracted from 9 million annualized units in Q1 to just over 7 million units in Q4. That being a big hole to dig out of, even though we are seeing some positive momentum expected later this year, we believe in total, this year will be about 5% lower than last year. We remain confident that between now and 2024, we'll just continue to see the market improve. It's a strong market, it's a resilient market, we're already seeing the positive signs that the dealer wholesale market will go back to what it was prior. You'll hear us talk about that throughout the day. As the supply improves, we will continue to gain share.
One of the things you're going to hear us talk about, Bill will go in to a little bit more detail, is in our 2026 plan, we will have 12% share of the dealer wholesale market. With that as a backdrop, let's now turn to what's enabling ACV to win in the market. Self-reinforcing network effects creates an ACV competitive advantage. Growing the number of buyers and sellers in our platform has led to greater liquidity and ultimately a better experience, which in turn has driven greater scale for our business model. Our scale has also created a tremendous amount of vehicle data that's helping us, one, have greater efficiency, but that's not all. This data moat has also fueled new products. We'll talk about these new products today. It's driving both a broader dealer engagement and creating an even better experience.
Our team will illustrate how our product expansion is driving both growth and scale, including innovation that's helping us acquire more dealers and expanding wallet share, enhancing the marketplace experience, leading to higher conversions, driving higher attach rates, expanding our TAM, continuing to improve our inspection accuracy, all while improving our internal efficiencies as we drive towards profitability. Probably the slide that you're all most interested in, and we will have a lot of content at the end, is Bill will detail later today that we remain on track to achieve $1.3 billion in revenue, strong margins, $325 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Why are we confident? Our continued innovation and strong execution will yield market share gains in dealer wholesale...
Compounded by growth from the market improving and returning back to normal, as well as this growth and this new growth in these adjacent opportunities. Our plan to deliver on these targets, as always, is on our three pillars. Growth, which Mike Waterman and Craig will walk you through. Innovation, which we're excited to have the costs and some of our leading talent within ACV, leading some of our areas of product and tech, and scale. Again, Bill will share both our progress and our proven model, and why we feel very confident between now and 2026 executing these objectives. Before I turn it over to my team, let's hear from our dealer partners and what they have to say about ACV. I look forward to be back up here with a little Q&A shortly.
The ACV team is part of our work family here at Audi South Coast. We are a Penske Automotive Group dealership.
Wesley Chapel Toyota, we average about 550 cars a month. We're in the top 15 in certified pre-owned in the United States for Toyota. It's busy. It's been steady. You know, demand's high. I wish there was more inventory available.
ACV has been such a huge help to, you know, our dealership, both in the retail aspect but also the wholesale.
Well, ACV definitely helped us sell more cars in the past two years.
ACV Auctions has changed the industry. I'm able to more closely monitor the wholesale market. We're at a 90% sell-through rate, and what more could you ask for?
We do quite a bit of purchasing on ACV. The great thing about it is, it's quick. I empower my team of buyers and sales managers that are constantly on there daily, looking for opportunities for us to acquire inventory.
Once we started using ACV, it's allowed us to basically sell as well as purchase vehicles from all over the United States. It's definitely, without a doubt, expanded our reach into, you know, the marketplace.
ACV Auctions is a blast to use. You know, I have the app on my phone, it's constantly going off.
I get to be on my couch at home and watching the football game, and I'm selling cars right from there.
ACV, I think one of the big points of them with having continued success is their ability to adapt with the times, add new technology, you know, with, you know, the APEX, also with the Virtual Lift, you know, to give, you know, that buyer on the other end the confidence of what they're purchasing.
They're looking at the undercarriage of the car. You're listening to the engine on the car. They really go through an in-depth checklist.
The VCIs, I actually do deal with them on a daily basis, and they're very accommodating.
ACV is a much easier way of getting inventory.
I definitely think ACV is a forward-looking company.
I think that that's the biggest thing, is having a partnership with, you know, ACV, with our dealership to, you know, create success.
All right, Mike.
Well, thank you, George. Good afternoon, everybody. Great to be here again. Hard to believe it was, been, what, 14, 15 months since we did this last time, and we all survived. Good to see everybody back. For those of you who don't know, my name is Mike Waterman. I'm the CSO here at ACV, and I have the honor of leading our field team, which now consists of over 1,200 teammates all across the U.S. Servicing those or building those relationships with the 50,000, you know, dealers that we have across the U.S. They really fall into 3 categories for us. We have our major dealer groups, we have our regional franchise dealers, and of course, our independent dealers.
Our direct sales team, which is our territory managers that are out in the field there every day, they really focus on supply and dealer acquisition, really focus on taking that relationship and growing that wallet share with our existing dealers over time. Our nationwide, vehicle inspection team, you know, our vehicle condition inspectors, they really serve as an extension of that. They're in the stores more often, you know, on a daily, weekly basis, they really serve as an extension of that sales team and a really big part of our success. Our inside sales team, partners with our marketing team to really ensure that we have that demand side covered with our buyers, it's a nice, even platform in the supply and demand. Our land and expand model.
you know, our proven growth strategy has been exactly that, and I think I said it before last year, and I don't think it's going to change anytime soon. It's a ground game. It really is. You have to be out there interacting daily with dealers. Our goal, you know, when we go into a new territory, it starts with a territory manager. We hire a few vehicle inspectors to open those relationships, get a few cars, and really get the opportunity to show what that ACV success can be, how our model works and take that success to focus on attracting more sellers and buyers in those markets, expanding our vehicle condition inspector coverage to meet that demand. Then really, the biggest part is taking that and growing the wallet share in each one of those stores.
Start with a few cars. Very quickly can add to 10, 20, 30 cars out of that 1 single rooftop, and as we do that, continue to add more and more rooftops around in that market space. When we look at that model, right, the territory expansion, some of you have been around for most of it, some of you only seen a couple of years of it, but let's look at that coverage today. As many of you know, we started in the Northeast. Over the past 7 years, we've invested heavily in expanding south and west, and today we cover every major market in the country with over 150 territories that roll up into 20 regions. The next part of that land and expand kind of model is penetration, right?
We want to get into as many franchise dealers as we possibly can to sell cars, buy cars. We want to get into as many independents as we can to buy cars, sell cars. The goal here is to expand quickly, but don't lose that momentum in those territories that we've already opened, right? It's a two-pronged approach, right? Our strategy is we move adjacent, then we cast a long line. Think of a fishing, you know, cast out and then reel it in, and then fill in in between. It's really proven to be a successful strategy for us. Now, last year, we shared, I think, franchise penetration. Let's take a look at our progress more at a regional level.
As a reminder, each of these regions that I'm gonna talk about, they usually consist of about 7 to 8 territories, okay? Let's go back to Q1 of 2020, when we were operating. We did have the 20 regions established at that point, but at that time, we had 5 regions with over 25% penetration and 15 regions with over 15% penetration. As we start to look ahead, right, and come into early 2021, you can see that we gained significant traction on the West Coast. We had over 30% penetration in West Texas. Then we drove further penetration in the Northeast.
During 2021, as you can see, and this will show you the map for 2022, from that 2021 to 2022 timeframe, we deepened our penetration in the Midwest, while at the same time, we reached over 35% penetration in five regions in the Northeast. Again, we were able to expand and defend and grow, and those are all very, very important, you know, areas for us to maintain this growth rate. The best thing about that is we were hitting these milestones while the industry was still recovering from the pandemic, you know, as George mentioned, supply constraints and some of the highest prices we've ever seen in the used car marketplace. Despite those tough market conditions last year, we made significant progress through the country.
By the end of last quarter, our penetration had grown significantly in major markets across the Southeast, Texas, and Southern California. We're now partnering with about 30% of franchise dealers in the country. We have six regions and 50 territories with over 35% penetration today. I'm very proud of our teams and these accomplishments during market trends and shifts never seen before. Again, as George mentioned, low supply, record high prices, all of which pushed overall industry TAM to new, you know, to lows that we haven't seen. We are able to maintain growth across many regions despite these additional hurdles. Let's move on to our final, you know, stage in this land and expand model, and that's wallet share.
We have a, I think, a very solid and proven track record when it comes to leveraging the ACV experience to deepen our relationship with dealers over time. Our value proposition is very simple: With every vehicle sold, eventually, we become the primary wholesale channel for these dealers. It's all about that rinse and repeat and that ground game that I mentioned earlier. Across the U.S., we have more than tripled... I'll say that again, we've more than tripled our wallet share since 2016. On the right, you can see the graph, our wallet share broken into four groups of regions. Regions in the top group typically have earlier territories and have 50% wallet share on average, which is great progress, but still plenty of room to grow.
The other regions have newer territories that have a ton of wallet share to still go after, but you can see the potential in our top 10 territories at over 65% wallet share today. As I tell my team on a regular basis, everyone started at 0. As George mentioned, it was 8 years ago today that we sold our first car. We started at 0. No matter where you are in this progression, you can and will get to these numbers, and it's just a matter of our motto and our mantra every day, and that's calm persistence. Today, we're providing a deeper view of our continued market success. Rather than showing you cohort data, we're gonna provide some franchise market share across the country. The formula is simple for us when we talk about wallet share and market share.
It's penetration times wallet share, that equals market share. Let's look at where we stood at the end of Q1, and we'll kinda come forward from there. As you can see on this map, we've gained significant market share across the country. As of Q1, about half of our regions reached double-digit market share. The three regions in the darkest color have 18%, 25%, and 40% franchise market share. Again, that's at a regional level when you look at these. We have 35 territories averaging 25% share and a dozen averaging 40%. Bottom line, very simple, is that we're confident that our land and expand model that we're in today supports our market share targets that George mentioned for 2026.
Most exciting, as this market continues to shift more towards a historical norm, we feel very confident that we'll benefit from these added markets, these regions, and the rooftop growth that we're experiencing today. I don't think we did this last year, but I'd love to take you through some examples of territories across the country to show how our market share grows, which can take on different shapes. We're gonna go out west. We're gonna start with Pasadena, and you can see, after setting up shop in early 2019, we gained nice momentum and most recently hit an inflection point in that market with a double-digit share today.
Beyond the current 10% market share, we still have ample ramp-up with wallet share in existing accounts to move that market share and a heavy amount of opportunity still available as we add new rooftops to that particular territory. As we come a little further east, we'll go into Texas, look at Austin South. This territory has really taken off the past year and over 20% market share today already. What's kinda unique about this one is Austin South has a lot of larger dealer groups. That can lead to a longer sales cycle, but also you get business in chunks rather in crumbs, right? That territory, in particular, very different, you know, from Pasadena. They're at a 66% wallet share, but still a lot of rooftops to be had. We're gonna move a little further north.
Look at Cleveland. Again, this is a, you know, a little different than the previous two, the end game still remains the same. Here we have a higher rooftop penetration, as you can see, with more upside in each of those stores to increase wallet share, which will move the market share. It's a little bit different of a, of a game plan, the end result is the same. With these relationships firmly in place, we're expecting strong market share gains as the wallet share grows in the coming years. As we go a little further, we're going to come, you know, kind of next door here. We're going to look at Long Island West, this team is just absolutely crushing it. Absolutely crushing it.
They have grown their market share fivefold in just four years, and it's a very balanced formula, you can see, between half the rooftops and just under half of dealer wallet share. In this one, as we get right into our backyard again, Central New York, you can see this territory. This is what it looks like when you tip the market. It's been a story of the calm persistence with consistent market share gains every year. The same principles, same game plan, have been applied here in one of our earlier markets, and it's still growing. You can see as it builds out, our penetration and wallet share increase, our market share has hit the mid-forties. This is where all territories are heading, albeit in different ways, but the model works.
Looking at the supply side, obviously, you can't have a vibrant marketplace without demand. Let's take a look to the buy side of our marketplace now. We ended 2022 with over 14,000 buyers. That's a CAGR of over 70% since 2016. While that growth is great, we're also excited about the growth of our franchise buyers on our marketplace that are now making up 25% of that mix, and this is important for a few reasons. First, it's proof that we have the kind of frontline vehicles that franchise dealers need, and more expensive vehicles drive higher ARPU. It's a win-win. This trend also reflects our growing suite of solutions, helping us acquire large dealer groups to our marketplace. Speaking of large dealer groups, now let's talk about major accounts. As I mentioned, this is one of those three categories.
Let's look at the momentum we've had in our major accounts team. This is the top, keep in mind, this is the top 350 dealer groups across the country, which today own about 35% of all rooftops in the country. We launched private marketplace in 2021, and that was based on dealers' needs, you know, needing to keep more supply in-house within the group, you know, as inventory became more difficult to acquire. What these private marketplaces allow dealers to do is they move inventory within the group, preserving retail gross, but also minimizing any wholesale loss. With the acquisition of MAX Digital, as George had on his, you know, one of his slides, we were able to expand into over 1,000 stores, including some of the top 50 dealer groups within the country.
As a result, we were able to double the number of rooftops in the majors category over the past few years. In 2022, we made additional strategic acquisitions in the consumer sourcing arena with Drivably and Monk, that's kind of led us to this next thing I'd like to kind of introduce you all to, because this is the first time I think anybody's hearing about it. I mean, is that correct, George? I think so. Let me introduce you to ClearCar. We're very excited about it. It's our new brand of growing suite of consumer sourcing tools for our dealers and our commercial partners. As George mentioned earlier, we believe consumer sourcing is an attractive source of inventory for dealers and direct car-buying companies. We are replacing the Drivably brand and leveraging our pricing engine and Monk AI technologies.
Our deep reservoir, as he mentioned, 1 million inspections last year. That deep reservoir of vehicle condition and pricing data. ClearCar enables our partners to build trusted and transparent relationships with consumers when selling or trading a used vehicle. Before I hand it over to Craig to discuss our emerging commercial strategy, and I think... Okay, he was hiding. I see him. I'd love to give you all a closer look, and let's do that and hear from a few of our customers about this ClearCar solution.
Grow your business with more consumer vehicles. Introducing ClearCar. ClearCar's suite of tools connects you to consumers looking to get an offer on their vehicle. Based on our unique pairing of customer input and AI technology, only ClearCar allows you to provide real-time, condition enhanced, and data-backed pricing with confidence. Our solutions are additive, each one building upon the other to create the most precise price available in the market. Our innovative, flexible, and tailor-made digital pricing engine and AI-powered vehicle inspections allow customers to get an accurate price on their vehicle and perform their own self-inspection with a guided experience anywhere, at any time. The price, customer-provided images, and lead information is provided to you in a dedicated portal, meaning you have access to view the vehicle images and calibrate your price before a customer ever sets foot in your store.
Our reporting can be linked to any CRM. The process is simple. You provide customers access to your customized inspection experience. They simply scan, participate in a guided photo capture, answer a few simple questions, compare the results for accuracy, and share the results directly with you. Instantly, the inspection results in our fully automated ClearCar report. Our technology is convenient for you and your customers, facilitating inspections from anywhere with the simple use of a smartphone. ClearCar is changing the game in connecting vehicle condition to price. Don't take our word for it, here's how ClearCar is impacting our dealer partners.
Consumer acquisitions are very important to any dealership. We use consumer vehicles for 2 things: to increase our inventory and also to sell new or used vehicles.
It's very easy to use, it was very easy to implement, and it also syncs with all the other programs that we're using. Within ACV's umbrella, we've seen an increase in probably 50% for our ability to capture leads.
We put in all our 17 franchises because of the quality of lead, plus the speed of the transaction for the consumer and also the traffic buying the vehicles. We're up about 25% of retail trade vehicles.
I feel that definitely gives a great sense of transparency because it gives the customer kind of a range, right? It gives you an offer, which is very important, but also gives you a range, depending on the condition of your car.
They're not given a number that's a fake number. They're given actual, real numbers that we can buy them for.
ClearCar, in my mind, is revolutionizing the consumer selling experience, and we have ACV to thank for that.
Good afternoon. I'm Craig Anderson. Since 2018, I've led strategic initiatives for ACV. Today, I'll update you on our plans to build our commercial business. As George mentioned earlier, commercial wholesale is a large market, but today, commercial is only a very small part of our business. We're beginning to change that. Over time, we intend to make every segment of the commercial market a core part of our business. Commercial is a natural fit for ACV. You just heard Mike talk about our buyer mix, and one of the ways we've been able to grow franchise penetration there is because of the quality of vehicles in our marketplace, the quality that's improved over time and become more relevant for franchise dealers. We already have a deep nationwide buyer base that wants to acquire the full spectrum of commercial vehicles through ACV.
We believe we will win in commercial by bringing our core strengths to these consignors, better data and more vibrant marketplaces to deliver more value. In normal periods, there are approximately 8 million commercial wholesale vehicles sold every year in the United States. Volumes contracted during the pandemic, now the market is gradually coming back. We expect a full return to normal sometime after 2026. It'll take a little while. For off-rental vehicles, we expect recovery over the next 2-3 years, driven by refleeting as new vehicles become more readily available. A lot of these rental car companies sourced used vehicles for their fleets in the recent years. In off-lease, we expect a steady return to near pre-COVID levels over the next few years.
A higher lease return rate, driven by falling used vehicle values, will be partly offset by fewer vehicles coming off lease. There were fewer lease originations in recent years. Fleet consists of company and government cars and trucks. We expect a steady recovery in fleet, driven by refleeting similar to rental. For repossessed vehicles, we'll see robust volumes over the next few years, along with elevated default rates. As Bill will cover later today, commercial will be a small but growing part of our business in 2026. The market recovery provides a favorable backdrop for our growth. Today, most commercial vehicles already sell on a digital marketplace, meaning the buyer uses digital to purchase the vehicle, and many commercial accounts leverage third-party land. Most off-rental vehicles are sold digitally today, and most do not require a third-party land.
These companies tend to have land to store these vehicles, pending remarketing. For off-lease, after being offered to the consumer and then the originating dealer, most vehicles are listed on digital marketplaces. Only the vehicles that do not sell on these platforms are sold from third-party locations. Some fleet vehicles sell directly through digital marketplaces, while most are remarketed from third-party locations that offer storage and reconditioning. Finally, repos require land for storage and light reconditioning, like getting keys made. That's why most repos sell at physical auctions today. While land will continue to play a role for commercial, where necessary, we believe our digital offerings will provide better outcomes for consigners in all segments. I'll share a couple of examples where we're building commercial volume today. First, we have a top 3 rental car company selling across the country with us.
We inspect vehicles at their retail and their airport locations. Sell these vehicles using 2 listing formats, Buy It Now and Auction. We'll be testing more formats. The average distance to the buyer for these vehicles is over 400 miles. That means the car is ending up with the right buyer, wherever the buyer may be. We believe this demonstrates the benefit of our solution for rental car companies who today may sell cars locally with a more limited reach, which is quite common. This particular example is only a few hundred vehicles per month currently. We're demonstrating success and earning more confidence. The relationship is growing. The next example. I mentioned on a prior slide that some commercial accounts benefit from land plus digital offerings.
ACV is still in an early stage, but we already operate a handful of locations across the country. What you see on this slide is one of the first examples of ACV acquiring a very small business to pair land-based services with our digital solutions. There are dozens of commercial accounts already doing business here, and we're getting great feedback from our buyers, who want as many commercial cars as we can deliver. What's also important here is that the unit economics are strong. In fact, the margin dollars per vehicle fit with our target profile. We're looking at other small businesses, and if we were to bring on more, they would also be businesses that, like this one, are profitable and accretive. To wrap up, the commercial wholesale market will be a growth driver for ACV over many years, just like the dealer market.
The pieces are coming together. We already have the core strengths in marketplaces and data services to add value for commercial consigners. We've begun to operate, as I mentioned, a small footprint of leased locations to support commercial accounts. Additional enabling technology is planned and in development. Abou and Phil, who will be up here shortly, will speak to what we're doing with Toyota and others. We recently welcomed new leaders to ACV, who will head commercial growth and operations. One of them is here today, so you should find Joe here in the room. Announcements will come on these hires. With that, it's my pleasure to turn it over to Vikas and members of our innovation team.
Thank you, Craig. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Vikas Mehta, Chief Operating Officer at ACV Auctions. I've spent the majority of my career in marketplace businesses, four and a half years at ACV and a decade prior to that at eBay. At ACV, I'm responsible for our product, technology, and operations teams. Today, I'm delighted to walk you guys through the innovations update. Over the next 30-45 minutes, my team and I will share updates in three main areas. First, I'll walk you through the evolution of ACV's product and service offerings and describe how they're enabled by the platform we're building. Last year, we highlighted some of our key focus areas, inspections, marketplaces, transportation, capital, and service offerings. In the second section, I'll share some of the latest developments in these areas.
Finally, my esteemed colleagues will showcase where we're going as it relates to data and intelligence, what these capabilities mean for ACV and for the automotive industry as a whole. Let's get started. To better understand our product and tech strategy, it's important to have the context of the industry and the ecosystem we're serving. Let me walk you all through ACV's journey. In 2015, we launched a marketplace that created a new standard of digital dealer-to-dealer transactions. This required a level of inspection capability and auctions capability this industry had never seen before. In 2018, we created ACV Transportation. This was done to support customer needs, transacting on the wholesale marketplace. We initially leveraged third-party offerings, started investing in tech-enabled capabilities early in the journey. Our ambition from day one was to build a compelling and efficient end-to-end user experience.
In 2019, we launched ACV Capital. It was done with the same ambition and a similar user need in mind. We also acquired True360 to expand our inspection capabilities to include retail transactions. Our customers loved our wholesale inspection and were looking for ways to leverage a similar offering to build trust in retail transactions. 2021, as Mike mentioned, to serve our larger dealer groups, we created private marketplaces. This allowed our dealerships to trade internally. We also acquired MAX Digital, a leading inventory management system. Both of these were strategic and deliberate moves upstream, and in this process, this helped us broaden and deepen our data moat. That brings me to 2023. As Mike just mentioned, we're extremely excited to accelerate our consumer sourcing offering with the rebranding and launch of ClearCar.
Our core platform enables us to offer this acquisition channel in a transparent and seamless way, both for our consumers and our dealers. If we take a step back, over the past 8 years, we're building a platform that helps us deepen and broaden our value proposition. Core capabilities like our data-rich inspection platform, our trusted, dynamic, and intelligent marketplace, accurate valuation tools, and the industry's best back-office and service capabilities. With this vision in mind, let's go deeper in a few areas. Following the life cycle of an auction, starting from inspections to marketplace, to service offerings and post-auction fulfillment, let's look at some of the highlights from last year. We believe we've had the industry's best inspection platform for some time. The focus of the last couple of years has really been about making it even better, looking at inspection quality and efficiency.
A key unlocker for both of these areas is our Monk AI imaging platform. While today, we're early at fully realizing the potential, we have some strong progress to share. Monk today is fully integrated in our condition report or inspection platform. We're actively capturing and training on over 1.7 million images per month. Monk is also used in our inspection quality or prescreen process to reduce cosmetic arbitrations. Very soon, Monk will help us boost VCI efficiency through auto-disclosure of cosmetic damages. Another priority is to guide our inspectors and our pre-screeners on the riskiest and the most complex inspections. A number of initiatives underway, two that I want to highlight today. First, we're leveraging our cumulative inspection data on a per-vehicle level during inspections. Phil is going to talk more about ArbGuard and how this gets rolled out.
Second, we're actively deploying our next generation of Bluetooth integration with OBD2 scanners. Overall, we're seeing the impact of these investments, not only in inspection quality and inspector efficiency, but also in training the algorithms to enable more long-term impact. Now that we talked about inspections, let's move to the marketplace. Our goal is to make ACV the most efficient destination for dealers to acquire inventory. We do this by making the buying experience personalized and relevant to individual buyer personas at a per-vehicle level. Over the past year, we've taken big steps in breaking the one-size-fits-all paradigm. In addition to supporting multiple buying tools, including S.A.M. or Smart Acquisition Manager, including supporting buying APIs, much like you saw the Lithia buying team use, we're also differentiating our marketplace experience to drive conversion.
An example of that was over the past couple of quarters, we introduced multiple auction formats and durations. In the last 2 quarters, we've been able to increase conversion of approximately 5% of listings over a 20-minute auction format for a number of vehicle types and geographies. Another area we've driven a lot of success in is our investments in our pricing algorithm. Great pricing informs sellers and buyers a more accurate and relevant price. It helps build a common understanding of vehicle value. John's going to spend some time talking about the good progress we have on our pricing. Finally, leveraging our supply and demand data, we've grown our recommendations platform. Our recommendations platform allows us to surface relevant vehicles to buyers through both on-site and email placements.
In Q1 alone, we drove an incremental 80,000 bids with our recommendation platform. We're only getting started. Moving on to operations. Last year, we introduced the complexity of wholesale operations. In our industry, operations are complex, fragmented, and inefficient. ACV continues to invest in and lead through tech solutions to power operational efficiency. Two highlights from this past year, first, around titles. Second, around pre-screening. Common industry pain point: handwritten, messy, incomplete. Every state, every one of the 50 states, have different requirements. Over the past few years, we've built tech-powered processes, tech-powered workflows, that have unlocked gains in efficiency and quality of title processing. Over the past year, continued investment in both the OCR software and hardware have led to meaningful improvements in title processing. Let me introduce to you what pre-screening is.
Pre-screening or inspection quality is a team we set up in 2019, and it was basically established to run quality control on a certain percentage of CRs before they were launched to the marketplace. Over the past year, we've invested significantly to make this a tech-enabled offering. How did we do this? Two things. First, we made improvements in tooling that allowed us to make pre-screening more automated and scalable. Second, we deployed intelligent queue prioritization, so we could deploy the team's time on the riskiest units being launched at any given point. Today, 100% of our units go through a virtual pre-screen, with 30%-40% of them actually being reviewed by a teammate. In summary, significant investment on the back-office operations, leading both to operational efficiency but also to customer satisfaction. I'd like to spend a minute on transport.
This month, June, ACV Transport will move its millionth load. With our scale, data, technology, and operational excellence, we continue gaining market share in the automotive transport industry. This has been done primarily through 3 focus areas. First, we're obsessed about automating key processes while building operational excellence and exception-driven workflows. Second, segmentation. We're moving beyond one size fits all to tailor our services to every type of move, every type of vehicle, every type of location, lane, and pricing. 3. We're focused on user experience, so we're investing in technology to make ACV Transport the easiest and the most transparent automotive transport company to work with. Everything from quote request to status tracking to workflow management. The result is we are today an industry leader in several service delivery categories.
This year alone, ACV Transport has delivered over 10,000 vehicles in under 24 hours. While automotive transport is way different from Amazon Prime, we love to pleasantly surprise our customers with same-day deliveries. Overall, technology, network, processes, probably most importantly, the team we are putting in place, are building ACV Transport for the future. Moving on to another very exciting business, ACV Capital. ACV Capital today is our fastest-growing line of business, much like in other areas, we're leveraging technology to support growth. We do this by bringing innovative solutions to dealers' need for liquidity while managing risk. Aligned with ACV's core values of trust and transparency, our floor plan offering was launched with some basic dealer needs in mind. Since then, we've evolved our offering to match complex and diversified needs in this area.
Today, over 1,000 dealers are actively using ACV Capital. In 2021, we launched a new solution to bridge the short-term liquidity gap that exists in our industry with respect to title delays. Both buyers and sellers today are able to take advantage of short-term products tailored to solve this need. We also provide a solution to dealers acquiring cars directly from consumers and selling them on ACV. ACV Capital is able to fund a dealer at sale, allowing customers to grow this channel. Live today as a pilot, this offering will scale as we grow ClearCar . Our loan management system will enable us to support transactions, while data and analytics advancements will ensure we accurately price and fund these units, limiting our risk and exposure. These were some of our recent highlights.
As we continue to serve our customers, we capture data at an unprecedented scale, both about physical assets being transacted, as well as about our dealers and their ecosystem. Our tech today has facilitated over 1.2 billion events, 64 million auction bids, over 2 million transactions, 2.3 million AMP recordings, 1.6 million Virtual Lifts, and we've generated over 1.3 million pricing estimates. All this data is evolving not just ACV, but has the potential to evolve the automotive industry. Now I'm gonna hand it off to Phil, and my colleagues are gonna talk about how we're capturing and harnessing all this data to generate a tremendous amount of value for our customers.
Thanks, Vikas.
Sure.
Excuse me. Perfect. Hello, everyone. My name is Dr. Phil Schneider, and I have the privilege of leading our research and development team here at ACV. I wanna spend the majority of my time discussing how we're gonna leverage the latest and greatest in AI and sensing technologies to really challenge what is possible in the automotive tech space. ACV continues to deliver on innovative inspection hardware technologies, creating new data insights. Using ACV's proprietary hardware like Virtual Lift, AMP, APEX, with all of our field inspectors every single day, we multiply our data proposition while harmoniously bridging this concept of a physical and digital world together. APEX, it continues to accelerate our data proposition as a company. Every single day, we realize more and more insights APEX is bringing to us, whether it be through sound, smell, or touch.
Virtual Lift, that aids in the detection of missing parts and pieces like catalytic converters, which is a major pain point for dealers in certain states. It can also do frame damage and rust quantification, telling you if there's a lot of rust, a little rust, surface rust, or penetrating rust. Lastly, we have programs like ArbGuard and CoPilot, two AI-based programs designed to uplevel our inspection quality and efficiency. We're gonna cover more of that on the next slide here. AI continues to be a valuable asset for all of our inspections. With over 3 million inspections, our vehicle condition inspectors have helped ACV amass an impressive curated database, primed to unlock AI capabilities. ArbGuard encompasses the latest of that AI inspection technology, helping our inspectors inspect cars faster, more accurately, and with a level of intelligence never before seen in this space.
Simply put, ArbGuard puts AI in the hands of our inspectors, providing them near real-time feedback on the condition of the vehicle they are inspecting. Whether it's something simple like looking for a cracked windshield or a chip in the windshield, or a little bit more complex, listening to the engine sounds for a knock or a tick, ArbGuard is there to help. Think of this program like the AI-powered spell check for Microsoft, right? It reviews your CR, it checks for issues, and it helps you as an inspector write the best, most accurate condition report possible. Some of you may have remembered last year, we talked about this concept about building this data ecosystem and how we're fueling this AI engine. We called that Condition IQ.
Since last year, we have fed this data engine tens of millions of data points and are working to develop the artificial intelligence model to boost overall accuracies and expand capabilities. Let's take a look at how we leverage this AI on an everyday basis with our inspector team. Our AI views the unique digital footprint of each vehicle, and we use this intelligence to power our inspections. With just the scan of a VIN, our AI will look back at our millions of inspections in the past and pick the highest risk aspects of that specific make and model of that vehicle. What this does, it primes our inspectors where to spend a little extra time because we know the pain points of that type of car.
From there, we filter through a suite of different models designed to help detect key issues with that car. Here you're gonna see on the bottom left, here's a structural announcement. This car is known to have that issue. We've seen them all before. Hey, inspector, spend a little bit extra time looking at the Virtual Lift image. There's more to that. Using our Monk imaging capabilities, our AI scans the exterior of the vehicle and looks for any type of cosmetic issue, scratches, dents, paint chips. We also look at things like the suspension. Did people modify this vehicle? Did they change the exhaust? Did they alter the engine at all? Our AI can help you detect that.
Looking inside the car, we analyze things like the dashboard and the odometer. We look for things like check engine lights or codes that may set off indicating an issue with that vehicle. We'll also look at the general quality of the interior as well. Leveraging our Virtual Lift photos, our AI will inspect for missing parts and pieces like catalytic converters, oil leaks, as well as rust, not only telling you how much rust there is, but what type of rust is it? Is it penetrating rust? Is it surface rust? How does that impact the value of that car? Cracked windshields. On newer cars, these can be massively expensive because of the technology in them, as well as the paint of the vehicle. Both of those are taken into account with the AI. Finally, using APEX, we gain insights of how the engine sounds.
Maybe there's a whining sound coming from the transmission or an engine knock or tick. Either way, ArbGuard can help. We are really just scratching the surface of what's actually possible here. Our next phase of innovation is centered around fusing these model insights together, having them communicate with one another, and really building off of each other's intelligence. I'll give you an example here, because really it's all about viewing the car holistically as one thing. When you take the AI, for example, look at a car's dipstick. It take a picture of it, understand what's on that oil. Maybe there's some metal shavings, some particulates, indicating that there's a problem. Okay, well, that's one aspect. Now pair it with APEX. Now, maybe that car sounds a little bit rough, like it's running with an issue.
Okay, well, maybe APEX also can detect some smoke out of the transmission. Now you start to add these things together, and you start to get these individual readings, when now viewed holistically, give you a much better representation of what condition that car is actually in. We actually call this the duck model, right? If it smells like a duck, if it sounds like a duck, if it walks like a duck, its chances are it's a duck. That's what we're doing with this holistic view here. We have a lot of plans for this AI, one of the visions right here and now is putting the tech and AI we've developed in the hands of our dealers.
This dealer-in-the-loop concept will allow dealers to leverage our AI toolbox and our inspection hardware solutions, like APEX and Virtual Lifts, in real time, turning any type of lot person into an inspector. Really, what this does, it reinforces our concept that we are no longer reliant on the interpretation of just any one individual. Yet we're leveraging the millions and millions of previous inspections done, and the intelligence gotten on that, to make an informed decision. This increases our data proposition, as well as opens up this concept of conditionally adjusted pricing for our ML models. Every inspector, every dealer, can now take advantage of our data at scale. I'm excited to pass this over now to Abou, who's gonna dive in a little bit deeper there with the next-gen inspections. Thank you.
Thank you very much. Hi, everyone. I'm Abou Laraki. I'm the Co-founder of Monk. I am a machine learning engineer from École Polytechnique in France, and from UC Berkeley in California. I had an experience as a machine learning professor at Polytechnique, and a few years experience in the venture capital industry as a deep tech investor. When I co-founded Monk about 3 years ago, I had this simple aim to provide more trust and transparency whenever a car changes hands, by leveraging the power of AI and computer vision, and this is where we found in ACV Auctions, the perfect partner to pursue this mission. Our world-class team of AI-focused engineers in Paris is pushing the boundaries of what's possible in the world of visual car inspections.
Thanks to our unique and intuitive products, we allow everyone, inspectors, dealers, or consumer, to generate on any smartphone, a report on the visual condition of the vehicle. Companies like Stellantis, Toyota, or Craig, have already placed their trust in Monk. We continue delivering unparalleled value to them. I'm also very proud that a year ago, we joined forces with ACV Auctions, marking a significant milestone in our journey. The integration of Monk and ACV Auctions has been nothing short of remarkable. This collaboration with ACV has significantly enhanced our competitive advantage. ACV's integration generates millions of highly structured vehicle data points. As I told you last year, to create an AI world leader in any category, you basically need three ingredients. First one, strong AI engineers. Second, a smart and state-of-the-art labeling system. Of course, the data.
This is where ACV's contribution is a game changer. ACV uniquely brings hundreds of trained and professional inspectors who feed our AI every day. This is phenomenal. To give you 2 simple illustrations, our database has grown from about 3 million image a year to 25 million image a year. Secondly, the data, it's not only about the quantity, it's a lot about the quality. Our latest test showed that with the same amount of data, the gain in accuracy is doubled with ACV data compared to what we had before. As you may understand now, this partnership positions us more than ever, as the leader in the field of next-generation inspection products, and we will continue to push the state of the art, and ultimately bring more trust and transparency to the automotive market.
Our AI-type inspection products will indeed have significant benefits for ACV first, and on our partners. Allow me to share with you one emblematic partnership, our collaboration with Toyota. As Craig mentioned earlier, technology will have a strong role with commercial vehicles. This is with this in mind, that Toyota contacted us to automate the return of lease-end vehicles. As you can see on this video, dealer can generate easily a link on their dashboard, do a simple inspection using a browser, and then in seconds, having access to a report in which they will see all the damage detected by Monk associated with the severity, which will create then a reconditioning price based on Toyota's pricing metrics.
This new process has been overall very well received by all the dealers, as it has considerably improved their productivity, the transparency for the user, and ultimately improves conversion rates. We already have now successfully deployed our technology across more than 120 dealerships in France, and we are eager to expand our partnership, both geographically in Europe and in North America, as well as in different business units, retail or professional inspections. Of course, it doesn't stop here. Monk technology goes beyond commercial partners and dealerships. It's already powering ClearCar, as Mac mentioned earlier, and we are extending our product to other sectors, such as logistic or salvage. It's just the beginning. As Phil mentioned earlier, ACV with Monk have everything to create a world leader in the next generation inspection product.
Looking ahead, we are fully committed to advancing the inspection process. Our research and developments efforts are focused on leveraging video and 3D technologies to improve productivity, secure data capture, and maximize UX, as you can see on the first video on the left. Because every car and every inspection has its own unique story, we see a giant opportunity of combining Monk technology, ACV data, with the latest technology, like generative AI, to guide the user efficiently, entertain us every bit of this story. We are also committed to entering a more comprehensive inspection process by adding, for example, in the near future, interior damage de-detection capabilities, as you can see on the image here.
Our mission is also to generalize our work with current partners on reconditioning pricing, and ultimately, to provide a damage estimation model that allows anyone to accurately price any car in the world, as my teammate, John Coles, will briefly explain to you.
Thank you, Abou. My name is John Coles. I have a PhD in operations research, and I've led work for the last nine years in turning data into value in healthcare, defense, disaster relief, and automotive. At ACV, I have the privilege of leading our data science and analytics organization, where we work with Phil, Abou, and teammates across ACV to turn the data deluge into speed to value for every customer in our automotive ecosystem. Data is often called gold or oil, unrefined, it can leave dealers and consumers confused by the volume of information available. ACV's investment in high quality data capture and analysis has positioned us to lead the industry in providing personalized guidance at every stage of the remarketing life cycle. In the ever-evolving digital landscape, ACV's Automotive Intelligence Platform helps our dealers cut through the noise and focus on time to value.
At ACV, we're committed to turning data confusion into data clarity. As Abou and Phil showed you, we're building the next generation of data capture tools. Data at ACV is about more than data capture and data tooling. We're turning that data into a data moat for clarity for our dealers to reduce that time to value. Using modern data science techniques, we're refining our data assets into a competitive advantage that positions ACV as the easiest decision that a dealer makes in their day. With our data moat, we are able to take just a few pieces of information with that scan of the VIN and turn it into over 120 value-related fields to assess the price and condition of that car, and that's just the beginning.
As we see significant leaps in generative artificial intelligence and machine learning, like those demonstrated by many competitors in the ChatGPT space, we are building a data moat to give us immediate value in the business and build a large vehicle model in the automotive industry that gives us competitive advantage for years to come. In the ACV ecosystem, we fuse all the information you saw today and more, to empower each dealer to quickly reduce customer acquisition costs, move wholesale faster, acquire inventory more quickly, and get more turns on each asset. What this means is we are turning our data into industry-leading products that empower our customers to make faster decisions. When we started 8 years ago, we went to market with the best condition report in the industry.
The quality in every part of our process has enabled us to build the best pricing engine in the industry. Our investment in data quality since the beginning, has allowed us to have the right foundation to build and quickly deploy industry-leading capabilities and drive more customer value. Over the last 18 months alone, we've expanded our pricing coverage from $35,000 all the way up to $100,000, or over 99% of the vehicles transacted on our platform. We've been able to do so with 45% more accuracy than competitor price books, while in a volatile market, and that's helped our dealers see between $1-$400 additional profit per car. Our accuracy in pricing is a competitive advantage for our customers.
As we accelerate the next generation of trade-in tools for dealers by eliminating price friction for our partners working to acquire customers. In a changing market, our pricing tools are allowing our dealers to get two and a half times higher conversion when used as part of their journey. Pricing is just one part of the strategy, as we are now guiding customer experiences using their historic preferences and current inventory needs. As Mike shared with you, we've grown tremendously across the country since we were founded. That growth in market listings has provided our dealers with more access and more options than ever before. As Vikas mentioned, in Q1 alone, we were able to drive an additional 80,000 bids by putting the right pieces of information in front of our dealers.
Additionally, over the last 12 months, we've been able to drive our view to bid time down by 20%, getting every dealer faster to the right car to purchase and put in their inventory. This progress is key to our strategy of combining data about vehicle condition, dealer needs, retail demand, and consumer history into a value-guided journey that's customized for each dealer. By fusing this data, we've been able to lead the industry in personalized market recommendations for every customer on our platform. The dealer's lot of today is filled with decisions that need to be made. Each car has a story, and in a quickly changing market, making the right decision is quick to profit. With our MAX Digital, Drivably, and Monk acquisitions, we've expanded ACV's ability to drive speed to value with every decision on a dealer's lot.
At ACV, we're combining the next generation of automotive tools into a single source of automotive intelligence to drive value for our customers. Let me give you a few examples. With ClearCar Pricing, we are giving dealers the ability to access over $200 more additional profit per unit through retail trades than our competitors. With machine learning-enabled document processing, it takes us seconds instead of minutes to analyze a title at ACV. We are looking to take these optical character recognition or OCR technologies and put that benefit into the hands of our dealers so that they can benefit from those operational improvements locally as well. With our Smart Acquisition Manager, or S.A.M., we are now making it possible to put the right car into a dealer's view within seconds of it entering the ACV ecosystem.
I will wrap our innovation segment with this: we have built the next generation of automotive intelligence platform, with vehicle condition and vehicle value as the foundation. By working with our dealer partners to understand and predict their needs, we are working to put every car in the right spot for faster profit than ever before. We'll take a 15-minute break before Bill comes back and walks us through the financials. Thank you.
All right, guys, let's get started. Maybe that was too loud. Is my mic on now? Okay. All right. First, great to see everybody here today. This is like standing room only, I think. Where's Tim? You've never had a crowd this big for PTC, have you?
No.
No. Next year, we gotta get a bigger room, man. All right. Well, look, I've got a lot of material to cover today, so I'm gonna take my time and go through it. What you're going to see is a lot of new information. I'm gonna present data in a way to help you understand why we keep reiterating our long-term targets, because obviously, they're pretty aggressive in terms of the revenue ramp and the EBITDA ramp. My section is really divided into four portions. I'll quickly start with just the Again, reiterating what the 2026 targets are, revenue and EBITDA.
We'll go into growth at scale, which is really looking at our revenue streams and dissecting those in terms of the major categories and how we're going to hit those target revenue streams. We'll get into the business model, where I'll discuss margin expansion and OpEx leverage. That'll be where I spend a lot of time, I'll finish up in terms of our capital position. Again, here are the 2026 targets: $1.3 billion in revenue, $325 million in adjusted EBITDA. That's a 33% revenue CAGR from last year, and a 30-point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins from the midpoint of our guidance this year, which is -6% to 25% by 2026.
Again, we recognize these are really steep curves, so the question is: how are we going to hit these numbers? Let's start with revenue. First, just a quick refresher. There are three major categories of revenue streams that we that we separate and present to you all. The first and the most important are auction and insurance revenue streams. These are the fees that we generate on our marketplace. Again, we've been directing you all to look at these together, even though we separate them on our financials, which we're required to do for GAAP purposes. We absolutely look at these things together, and we look at ARPU, we look at margins on a combined basis for our auction fees and insurance revenue streams. That last year was more than half of our revenue, 56%.
That said, it's the key driver to our marketplace, services, transport and capital, which is another 36% of revenue. That, of course, you know, those services attach into our marketplace, and I think all of you are pretty familiar with that. The last piece of our revenue streams are our SaaS and data services. Relatively small, pretty fast-growing. We'll talk more about that in a few minutes. Now if we look at each of these pieces of revenue, starting with, again, the most important. All right? This year, we're actually putting out a unit target to help you guys in terms of your modeling, and that's 1.5 million units by 2026. Of that 1.5 million, 10% we're estimating to be commercial and consumer-to-dealer units. Okay?
Now, point of clarification, the consumer-to-dealer units that we include in this bucket, because you'll see there's two buckets of revenue associated with those, with the offering that we took you through in terms of ClearCar. These are wholesale units that originate by us helping dealers source vehicles from consumers. To the extent they use our tools, they source units, and some of those, they trade on the wholesale market, those will be transacted on our marketplace, and that's included in this bucket. Okay? This is a pretty strong CAGR going forward. Again, the other major assumptions here are that we grow to 12% share and that our market fully recovers to 11 million units. All right? The last piece of this is ARPU growth.
In this next slide here, this is to help all of you understand what's the path to achieve these targets when you look at each of the components. All right? The first component and the biggest component, it's almost half of the revenue that we need to achieve the 2026 target are from market share gains. We're assuming that we basically continue to gain share at the same rate that we've been getting the last couple of years, which averages to about 17% share gains per year. When you do that math, and we estimate our share last year was about 6.7%, and you extrapolate that to 2026, you get a bit over 12% share.
We're not assuming anything outside of what we've actually executed on the last couple of years, right? That would generate $245 million in revenue without market expansion, without ARPU expansion. What we've done here is isolated each of these components to understand how do we achieve these targets. That's the biggest piece of revenue growth, and again, it's just continuing those share gains that we've executed on in the past. The second piece is ARPU expansion. As you guys know, we've started increasing our buy fees. The first buy fee increase was in December 2021. We did another smaller buy fee increase October of last year. If we extrapolate that forward with modest assumptions, we're not being overly aggressive here in terms of ARPU expansion, that's another $105 million tailwind based on our math, okay?
Keep in mind, again, we are, in some cases, substantially below our competitors in terms of buy fees, and we're just looking at their buy fees today. It's not unreasonable to suggest that over the next few years, they're going to continue to increase their buy fees as well, just solely due to inflation. That's $105 million. The big question is market recovery, and there are different opinions as to whether or not our market's going to fully recover to 11 million units. Again, our estimate is pre-COVID, dealer-to-dealer wholesale was 11 million units. Last year, we estimated we came into the year at 9 million, and we exited at 7 million. The average was 8.2 million. All right?
We're assuming that we see the market return to 11 million units, and that would be a $100 million revenue tailwind. By example, though, let's say you have a different view. Let's say you think it's only going to recover to 10 million units. When you do the math, that would be about a $40 million headwind to that $100 million. In other words, if you think it's only going to grow to 10 million, we would have $60 million of tailwind instead of $100 million. Said another way, we could compensate for that if we grow share at 19% a year, which happened to be what we estimate our share gain was last quarter, right? There's different ways to potentially overcome that.
or maybe our RP expansion is a little more than we've currently modeled, since we're trying to be, you know, very reasonable in terms of what we're baking into the financial model, okay? That's market recovery. Then the last piece is commercial and consumer to dealer, which we're estimating at 10%. Again, if we back that 10%, by the way, out of our unit target, the CAGR for unit growth for dealer to dealer is 28%, okay? Again, that's based on share gains and market recovery. All right? That bucket, again, includes commercial revenues, which I think are self-explanatory, and consumer dealer units that flow through our wholesale marketplace emanating from consumer acquisition, all right?
That's how we get to the $750 million in terms of our auction insurance revenues and 1.5 million units, okay. This is the obviously the major driver for our next bucket of revenue, which is also very substantial, which is transport and capital. What are we assuming here? Okay. This works out to a 34% CAGR. All right. We're assuming that our transport business attaches into the marketplace at the same attach rates that it's been attaching to in the last year and a half or so. 50%-55%. We're not really changing any of our assumptions there. We're looking at our historical actuals, and we're just extrapolating that going forward, okay. For our capital business, last year we set an attach rate target of 25%. We're maintaining that attach rate target.
We're now into double digits. As Craig mentioned, it's the fastest growing line of business for our business, for our company. Last year, our revenue growth for Capital was over 100%. We're not assuming that's gonna continue the rest of this year, 'cause we're trying to also manage and balance, you know, risk in light of the economy, right? But basically, if we continue to do what we've been doing for Transport in terms of attach, and we hit our Capital attach rate, we'll hit this target based on the unit number for our core marketplace, okay? This gets us to about 90% of our revenue, by the way. The last piece are our SaaS and data services.
Here we've actually adjusted our outlook to reflect a strategy to drive more dealer wholesale transactions through our marketplace by bundling with various SaaS offerings. Last year, this target was about $150 million. We've lowered it to $60 million, which is a much lower CAGR of about 16%, okay? An example of this would be ClearCar. ClearCar, we will offer as a subscription-type service, but there will be cases where we'll take that subscription, bundle it with wholesale transactions and discount it, maybe even offer it for free if we generate enough wholesale transactions, 'cause that's where, frankly, where all the money is. There's such a big TAM here that that's really, really where the opportunity is to drive our financial model.
There'll be cases where we're just driving SaaS revenues, which are okay, too, 'cause it'll be very high margin. That's software revenue, essentially, right? That's one piece of this revenue stream. A big piece today, and what we think will continue to be a pretty big piece going forward, is MAX Digital. With respect to MAX, we're pretty excited that by the end of this year, we're gonna be at the tail end of all the upgrades to this platform, and then we can reactivate all of our go-to-market activities going into next year to drive more MAX Digital business, all right? This is, as you would expect, pretty high margin business. It's a SaaS offering as well.
Has an ancillary benefit that it gives us more and more insight into dealer transactions for any dealers that are on our platform. It's got a pure financial benefit in terms of SaaS revenue streams, but it also gives us a lot of insight that we can use to understand what's our market share in a particular dealer, right. How much wallet share are we getting if we know what all their transactions are, all right. This is how we basically hit our SaaS and data services revenue. The last piece of this, by the way, is a smaller piece, our standalone inspection services. This is where we provide True360 retail inspections, and we provide off-lease inspections. Off-lease inspections have deteriorated pretty significantly with the rest of the market, as you would expect.
We are assuming a modest improvement as we get to 2026. It's a smaller number, but, you know, if we look beyond 2026, as off-lease kind of returns to normal, then that'll be a little bit more of a, of a booster to the revenue streams here. The biggest number by far is certainly MAX, followed by ClearCar, and then the standalone inspection services. Let's go to the business model. What you see here are the three different categories of revenue streams that I just took you through. The actual cost of revenue targets, which is the inverse of margin, since that's what we present in our financials. Actuals from last year, and then the target, which I'll walk you through category by category. You know, basically, the drivers are very similar to last year.
First and foremost, maturing and scaling of our territories. That's by far the biggest driver to leverage in our model. Second, are the increased quality of our inspections, and the team is taking you through a lot of great content in terms of what we're doing on the technology side. Business model optimization, we've done that in spades last few quarters with transport, which is a great example. Mix shift. Let's start with auction and insurance cost of revenue. Again, these are our biggest revenue streams. ARPU expansion will account for 70% of the uplift to hit our target. Again, this is the inverse, right? Last quarter, we hit 30% cost of revenue, 70% margin for auction and insurance revenue streams. Target is 20%-25% cost of revenue.
70% from ARPU expansion and 30% from arbitration, lower arbitration costs. A lot of what we continue to invest in is to provide more fidelity to our condition reports, which provides more transparency. To the extent we disclose issues, we basically avoid arbitration costs because they've been disclosed to the buyer. All right? This is how we hit the target margins there. The only other point about arbitration costs, there is an ebb and flow. Last quarter, we had a great quarter in terms of lower arbitration costs. It's not a linear process by quarter or a linear progression, where every quarter is going to get a little better. There'll be a little bit of an ebb and flow, okay, with that. Because part of it is impacted by seasonality.
You know, when dealers really need cars to satisfy demand, they're pretty quick to then take those cars, recondition them, and sell them. When things are tight and conditions are tougher, they're going to try to squeeze every dollar they can out of us in terms of arbitration costs. Again, there's an ebb and flow there. Now let's move to transport and capital in terms of margin expansion. About half of the there's 2 big variables here that will drive the improvement in margin or lower cost of revenue. The first is the improvement in mix as we continue to grow our capital business. To the extent we hit our target of 25% attach for capital, that will result in a 3x improvement in terms of mix.
Capital will move from about 6% of these revenue streams to 18% of these revenue streams. All right. That's number one. Number two, our transport margins. I think, as you all know, we hit our 2026 target of 15% last quarter. We are raising our expectation for transport targets, and we're raising it to the high teens. Okay. When we look at these two pieces of expansion in terms of margins, they're roughly equally weighted between the two, all right? As a reminder, we record transport revenues on a gross basis, even a few points of margin are material to adjusted $EBITDA dollars, Right. Because these are, these are recorded on a gross basis. Okay. That's how we hit our cost of revenue targets for this part of our revenue stream.
That leaves our SaaS and data services. First, and this is a pretty big leap here versus the other categories. The mix of our SaaS revenues is really the biggest driver here in terms of hitting our cost of revenue targets. And again, MAX Digital is a very high margin product offering. ClearCar, when we offer subscriptions, will also be very high margin. That will dominate these revenue streams, and we expect to be able to hit therefore a 35%-40% cost of revenue target, right? Which is a 60%-65% margin, if you will. The other piece of this, by the way, are greater efficiencies in our inspection costs.
The reason for this is for our standalone inspection services, the cost per inspection is impacted by the efficiency of all of our inspections for our marketplace. Most of our inspections are for our marketplace, right? We do the standalone inspections. To the extent we get better leverage for the average cost of an inspection, which is the vast majority of what we do for our marketplace, that accretes to the unit costs or the inspection costs that flow into this part of our P&L. All right? That will naturally uplift the margins here over time as well. Now let's go to the OpEx side of the equation, all right. This is just a summary of the major OpEx components. You know, tech and development, sales and marketing, G&A, those are self-explanatory.
Inspection and ops, that houses all of our inspection costs, personnel for payments, title processing, transport processing, all those costs are bundled into marketplace inspections and operations. What we're going to take you through the next few slides is looking at the fixed versus variable portion of our operating expenses to help you understand how we achieve the target model in terms of operating expenses as a % of revenue. All right? This is something that we did not provide any fidelity on before, but frankly, this is the way that we model these costs going forward to understand what's a realistic level of OpEx to support the various targets in terms of our revenue streams. Okay, inspection and ops has a very high variable cost component to it, that's because we're assuming all of our inspector costs are variable with volume.
All right? That's somewhat of a simplification because it's not necessarily always the case. For example, when we start a new territory, we'll put an inspector in place. It's almost like a semi-fixed cost, right? Because we can't have a territory without an inspector, right? Over time, as we add volume and we gain market share, then we add more inspectors, right? We're just assuming, for simplicity, that all of those costs are variable in this model, and that's a majority of the spend here are the cost for inspectors. Okay? What drives inspector efficiency? Again, this gets back to territory density. When we have higher density, inspectors are doing less driving around. They're going to a dealer, and they can knock off two, three, four inspections at a shot, okay?
When they got to drive from one dealer to the other because we were just nascent in that market, they could be spending as much time or more time even driving than they were doing inspections, right? Conversion rates are another big variable here. In fact, when we look at our mature territories, not only do we get better inspector efficiency because they're doing more inspections in any given period of time, but we also observe, in some cases, significantly higher conversion rates, which is a huge lever for our model, right? Basically, we're incurring all the costs to inspect a vehicle. We put it up on our marketplace. If it doesn't transact, we generate no revenue, right?
To the extent we can increase conversion rates, and, you know, some of the other folks who presented today actually talked a bit about driving conversion rates, things that we're doing on the technology side, data science side, John talked about. Vikas talked about some of the things that we're doing in terms of adjusting, you know, the duration of auctions and how that's driving higher conversion rates. That is a huge lever to our financial model, okay? The benefit is that to the extent we're driving higher conversion rates, it actually drives incremental revenue, which drives this cost as a % of revenue down. In fact, it drives all of our costs as a % of revenue down, because we're generating incremental revenue at nil in terms of incremental cost. Because all we have to do then is basically process the transaction.
We already inspected the car. The inspection is the most important or most costly part of our model, right? Versus processing the transaction, you know, getting the title transferred, et cetera. Okay? The last piece of this would be back office efficiency and operations. Again, Vikas talked a little bit about that. You know, a lot of the automation that we're doing in terms of, you know, scanning titles and what have you. We continue to just infuse technology in everything that we do, frankly, across the entire business. You know, this is one area that we can really impact the cost curve as a result of those investments. Okay, the rest of our operating expenses are much more fixed in nature. Let's start with our technology investment.
First, you know, the last few years since going public, we've dramatically increased our spend here by a factor of 2 over the last few years, all right? You can see on the top of each of these bars, you can see the dollars that are being spent. We're assuming that roughly 75% of these costs are fixed in nature going forward, versus 25% variable, okay? Even with that, we're assuming that in order to get to $1.3 billion in revenue, we're going to double our spend on tech from roughly $40 to $80 million. That will drive roughly a 50% in efficiency in terms of revenue, percent of revenue from 10% rather... I'm sorry, 40% efficiency improvement from 10% to 6% of revenue.
The other piece of this puzzle is, you know, we have launched into India in terms of a lower cost engineering center, to bring on additional capacity at a much lower cost to augment our teams in Buffalo and Toronto, okay? We're looking at actually a significant increase in capacity here. It's double the dollars, but also we're taking our costs -- again, I think about unit cost, but it's cost per person, if you will. you know, that'll be, call it one-fourth of what our cost here is today between Toronto and Buffalo. We'll be able to continue to add capability in terms of the engineering team to augment our existing resources at a very cost-effective rate. Okay? Sales and marketing. Another area that we've made significant investments in the last few years.
You know, we've talked to a lot of you about building out our nationwide network in terms of, you know, our go-to-market engine, all the salespeople that we've got populated around the country, all right? We look at these costs today as 80% fixed, roughly, and 20% variable, right? Which means, you know, as we grow, obviously, we're going to see a pretty significant reduction as a % of revenue and a lot of leverage here. Even with that, we're assuming about a 60% increase in spend, so from roughly $70 to $115 million. Why is that important?
We want to make sure we have enough dollars budgeted here to support continued expansion of go-to-market activities, moving into the commercial space, marketing our consumer to dealer offerings, and frankly, making sure we have enough resources to fund the next leg of growth as we think about how do we hit a 2030 target that's going to be substantially higher than this, right? We have to continue to invest, but again, we'll get a tremendous amount of leverage here over time as we grow the top line and start to leverage a lot of these fixed costs, essentially, that we've already put in place and we're paying for today. G&A. Sound like a broken record, right? Another area that we've invested significantly. We've basically doubled our spend in G&A the last few years, kind of leading up to our IPO.
Since then, we had to build, obviously, the team, the systems, the processes, the IT infrastructure, all the back office operations to support the scaling of the business. While we'll continue to obviously increase our spend here as the business gets a lot bigger, this is another area that we should see a significant improvement in operating leverage from 10% to 6% by 2026. What does all this mean? This means that we can dramatically improve the bottom line if we look at the combination of margin improvement, which is modeled at 10 points, and OpEx leverage, which is modeled at 20 points. That's a 30-point improvement to extent we hit these targets, right?
Again, based on everything that I took you through in terms of revenue, we see a very clear path to get there. This is actually my favorite slide in the deck. Let me give you a little background on this. In the past, we've provided cohort data to you all, you know, including before my time when George was pitching some of you as private investors, you know, through the IPO, and ever since, we've provided a lot of the unit economics in terms of cohort data. We spent the better part of the last year and kind of, you know, hats off to the finance and accounting team.
They basically rebuilt our financial systems to allow us to look at revenue all the way down to EBITDA at the territory level, and then rolled up to the regional level, okay? This analysis doesn't just include our auction revenue streams. Here, we're basically accreting the revenue streams associated with all of our ancillary products and our SaaS and data services. We're looking at total revenue generation and all the way down to adjusted EBITDA margins by territory. All right? Frankly, this has been a great process for us internally because it's provided us a tremendous amount of insight, understanding our own business and our unit economics. There's some pretty interesting takeaways. The graphs on the right show at the regional level, and again, we have 20 regions. Each region has 7-8 territories, okay?
If we look at the revenue, the revenue levels to achieve certain adjusted EBITDA targets, what we observe is that at $25 million of revenue by region, we basically get to breakeven. At $50 million of revenue, we get to 15% EBITDA margins, and then a small leap from there to basically with 30% growth to $65 million, we get to 25% EBITDA margins, okay? That's pretty insightful for us as we think about also how we hit the targets from that perspective, when we really drill down to the territory level. Further, when we look at our modeling for this year, we're estimating that 50% of our regions this year will be EBITDA breakeven or positive EBITDA, okay? Again, when you think about a region, multiply it by seven or eight to think in terms of territories, right?
The other piece of this, and I'm just looking at my notes here to make sure I get all the information here correct, all right. Three regions this year are expected to achieve 15%-25% or greater adjusted EBITDA margins. That's this year, all right. Again, these are regions, not territories. The last piece of this is, if we now zoom down to the territory level, okay, we're estimating that 25 territories, not estimating, I stand corrected. Last quarter, 25 territories had double-digit adjusted EBITDA margins, and 3 territories were over 25%. That was in Q1, all right. Now why is this important? I'm gonna just focus on this last bullet because it was very insightful for us, 'cause we had never had financial information down to the adjusted EBITDA level by territory. Okay.
If you take a step back and think about what I just took you all through, we're looking at 30 points of leverage from today to 2026, 10 points of leverage on margins, 20 points of leverage on OpEx. In theory, those territories that are at 25% or better, EBITDA margins, already have some of those efficiencies factored in, right? They have higher conversion rates. They have better efficiency in terms of inspection costs, okay? Some of those efficiencies are baked in. Let's assume that half of those efficiencies, half of that OpEx and margin leverage, is already baked into those territories, and the other half is going to be accretive over time. For example, they're not getting any benefit from G&A leverage. They're not getting any benefit from R&D leverage, okay? They're not getting any benefit from ARPU leverage, right?
They're not getting any benefit from additional, scale just because our market starts to recover. Let's assume for a second that we can generate 15 points of additional leverage for those territories. That's a 40% EBITDA model, and one of those territories is even higher than 25%. Let's just leave that on the side for a second, all right? That has helped us understand that over time, with enough scale and enough maturity across our territories, we are actually looking at the potential for a much greater level of adjusted EBITDA than we've put together with our long-term model, which we haven't changed, by the way, right? That's the kind of margin profile that gets us pretty darn excited, right? Again, we need to achieve this scaling over time.
We need to achieve everything that I just took you through. Frankly, there's nothing in terms of our assumptions that strikes us as being unrealistic, right? The only point of debate might be among you, does the market fully recover to 11 million units? There's a path that might actually be more than 11 million units. If there are 10 million units peer-to-peer today, and we help dealers, by the way, pull those units into the dealer ecosystem, we're expanding the TAM, right? Again, we're not gonna stand here and say it's gonna be more than that, but you might think it'll be less than that. It could be, it could be less, it could be the same, it could be more. None of us really know.
The point is that I think we all believe, at least we do, certainly, that the market will recover at some level, right? We could disagree on how much. Again, the point here is that this process that we've gone through has demonstrated to us internally, that this business model really rocks. I mean, there's the potential for us to create an incredibly profitable business, right? We don't have to be a $10 billion revenue company, by the way, to get there. Okay? All right, this is just a summary of the target model. The long-term target out there, when we went public, we actually put out a 30% EBITDA target at, you know, maturity, which we're just modeling here at $1.7 billion-$2 billion. That would be about another 50% growth.
You know, we'll talk more about that some other time, because that's when we think about, you know, what's our 2030 target, right? We're not changing the 30% EBITDA target. That's still a pretty good target. What I just took you through gives us reason to think that, you know what? A year from now, we might be thinking that target actually is higher. We'll see. We'll see. I'm gonna finish up here before we turn it over back to George, and we'll get into Q&A here in a few minutes. Capital structure. A lot of cash, over $500 million at the end of last quarter. We were actually free cash flow positive last quarter. We had kind of the stars and the moon aligned.
We had a great tailwind in terms of our marketplace float, which was $188 million last quarter. Again, I comment on it every earnings call, there's volatility there, so don't assume that's a straight line either. You know, what you can assume, and what we're assuming, is that over time, directionally, our marketplace float will increase. It might have some volatility quarter to quarter, but the extent we hit these revenue targets, there should be basically a linear progression in terms of our marketplace float. This is free cash that we get to use, right? It's not restricted. It's available to us.
We tend to be really conservative inside the business and look at our net cash, net of the float, but the reality is, you know, this is a kind of a feature of our business model, all right? ACV Capital receivables reached $100 million last quarter. If you do the math in terms of our capital business and scale it to the 2026 targets, our portfolio would grow to about $750 million, right? Once we get to about $200 million, then we start looking at financing this in the debt markets. We're not quite there yet. You need at least $200 million to scale. In the meantime, we have a $160 million credit facility today that we can leverage, that we have to leverage.
Frankly, there's opportunities potentially to even increase that beyond that, you know, if we want a little more room, all right. Again, that's short-term lending. Those receivables turn in basically 60 days. I think most recently, we've been turning them even lower. Anyway, so that, and obviously, no other debt other than what we... you know, we borrow money to finance those receivables. Last point here is cash flow, all right. Basically, the net is that our adjusted EBITDA is a very good proxy for free cash flow. The reason for that is because our float, as it grows, can basically pay for CapEx and capitalized software. Good rule of thumb, the way we think about it, again, is we can equate not just operating cash flow, but free cash flow with adjusted EBITDA dollars. All right.
That's the way we've been thinking about the business. All right, that gets you guys through the financial model. We'll get into Q&A now. Do you want to wrap up for a sec, right?
Let's jump right in.
Jump right in.
I'll wrap up while I'm walking you over. I mean.
Okay.
At the end of the day, you know, we worked really hard from the last time we all got together to now to really help provide some more insights, right? We, when you think about the maturation here, we've heard a lot over the last year, "Help us really understand the model." Hopefully, you've seen that. You know, what I've heard a lot from a bunch of you all is: Help us really understand, where are you, this rinse and repeat? Mike Waterman and team, you know, really showed you that our rinse and repeat from a go-to-market perspective, we're just really, really proud of what we're doing. We've just got to keep doing that, not only for 2026 to 2030, just keep going, executing.
You've heard us talk about the, you know, what we're doing from an innovation perspective, and how this truly is an intelligence platform for the automotive market that is unique to any other company in the category. Each and every year, you'll see a little glimpse of what we worked on the prior six to twelve months, right? Hopefully, next year, you'll get to see what we're working on right now. Really, really proud of what we've been up to. Let's just jump right in and ask me questions. Tim, you want to help facilitate, so I don't have to pick?
Oh, yeah. He's got a question.
It'll be an easy question. The territories lower 25% adjusted EBITDA margins today, do they have a disproportionate amount of capital services in them relative to others, or it's just apples to apples when I look at non-mature versus mature territories?
Yeah, I don't that's not a big variable. Yeah, it's more driven by the other variables in terms of territory or density. Conversion, again, is a really big factor as well. Yeah.
Side to side.
Hi, good afternoon. Congratulations, first on all the accomplishments you've had, and then a wonderful day today.
Thank you.
I mean, gave us so much information. It was really, really helpful. I wanted to take a step back, and one of the things you talked about is getting to the 2026 goals, one of the bigger hurdles is market share gains, right? Just that volume growth of 30%, 28% ex the commercial and other. One of the big drivers that you've taken share with and grown your volume with is your work with your dealer groups and private marketplace. Tell us where you are there in penetration. I think you said 15+ dealer groups with private marketplaces on the call, so on the most recent investor call. 15+ now goes to what? You know, where are you in on that maturation?
You know, I think, and I didn't have enough time, but, like, almost a third of your volume was from those groups or something like this. Give us more on the private marketplace maturation and how that's helping you gain share, where you are, and, you know, a few more details.
Sure. We continue to, you know, sign up additional dealers. I mentioned about 15 were either live or about to go live in the last call, in contract phase and live, making great progress, signing up additional dealer groups. That's one. Maybe a little bit more color is, you know, a great target for a dealer group is if they could keep anywhere between 10% and 20% of these cars. Just to kind of give you an idea of why we like them, I think we're around 20-ish right now. It's sort of a freemium type of model, because they're excited about keeping 10%-20%, which means they're gonna wholesale 80%, right?
Just because it didn't work at one store and it might work at another store, that one given vehicle, you know, the majority of the cars end up getting wholesaled, but they're ecstatic. Like, we went live with one of the large dealer groups, and they're, I think they call it the Southwest Division, and they were a little bit north of their 10%, you know, objective. I think they were in the 15%-18% of their objective, keeping the cars in the group. Their group president was ecstatic. We were ecstatic because we had first shot at a bunch of cars. And these were frontline cars, already reconditioned, higher price, and another dealer, whether it's 100 miles away or 300 miles away, wants that car. It's one of our features. If you...
Many of you that have known me for a while said we got a lot of features that we're building here. That's a great feature. These other features we've developed are also important features. At the end of the day, it's just about adding more value, right? If we add more value than the other traditional auction-oriented companies, we'll take our share. Thanks, Bob.
Thanks.
Hi, John Elias with Guggenheim. It's great to see the ARPU opportunity and potential price per unit. Can that grow from now to 2026? I know we still have potential normalization in used vehicle pricing, but there also appears to be opportunity to, you know, drive a higher mix of those higher priced vehicles. I'm just curious how you all expect that to shake out. Thank you.
I'll start-
Seeing power there. As we think about GM-.
Bill, you know, we have GMV in our model going down a little bit this year. That's at least high level, what we're modeling, even though we've got all this benefit from a mix perspective. None of us really know. You've seen us be wrong the right way on GMV, our current, at least, model assumes it going down throughout the year. I'll take your question further, which is continue mix, continue start, you know, private marketplace grows even further, commercial customers start to come on board. Some of these consumer vehicles being sourced don't fit for that specific store, it gets sold on the marketplace. All these things should help on mix, we're not assuming our GMV grows materially between now and 2026. Our model does not assume that.
It's more like all these things are kind of keeping it near where it is today, but we don't have in any of our assumptions that GMV grows. I mean, who knows? We could be launching some high-end vehicle lane in the near future, right? Of just helping, you know, dealers buy high-end cars. That would increase GMV. Until we launch that, until we see what it does, just assume it kind of goes down in some consistent manner, and kind of go from there. Yeah. It is flat in the model after this year, basically. I mean, the other variable that none of us really know is, you know, the impact of inflation going forward, right? You know, unfortunately, I'm old enough to remember years ago when inflation was a real thing, right?
I'm probably dating myself here, listen, inflation is tough. I mean, the Fed realizes this. Inflation is tough to tame. I mean, inflation may very well persist more than all of us would like. Even if it's 2% or 3%, by the way, you know, you extrapolate that over a few years, you know, that adds up, right? If you think it's 3%, do that math, right? I don't want to make it sound like it's a huge tailwind, you know, but it could be somewhat accretive.
Just two quick clarifications. On the revenue uplift from, revenue per unit. The reference was to buy-side fees. Is that all buy-side fees? Will it stay on that side?
Yeah, we actually have in the model a tiny decrease in sell fees, not because we're seeing it, because our thought is the more bundling, the large dealer groups just kind of plan for it, you know, be prudent. Yeah, all of it's on the buy side. Our revenue per unit is still about $100 lighter than the physical auctions without adding in buyer assurance products. There's a product, the physical auctions have that's called PSI, without getting into all the weeds, which gives you a level of assurance. We've got room here on the buy side. We don't have in the model between now and 2026, us taking that full $100.
Okay.
Right? We have only a portion of that, you know, that we're taking back, and as Bill mentioned, they might increase the industry will likely increase fees in general. Every time we've increased our fees, competitors have actually increased them some more. I think we're being very reasonable. I think, you know, when you look about the model and how we're thinking about these being these small-ish increases year to year between now and 2026, which you've seen is our style. You've heard us say, we don't want to be a pig. We just want to, you know, raise fees slightly each and every year. We feel good about it.
Okay. The other one I had was just to better understand the revenue and EBITDA by region slide. In terms of cost allocation for the corporate layers, is it just % of revenue based, or how did you do that?
It's.
Did you make an attempt to regionalize the cost, or did you?
Let's take G&A as an example. It's more ratable, right? Because those costs typically get spread based on, yeah, ratable relation to revenue, right? You can't specifically. Let's take my cost.
Right.
How do you allocate that? It's got to be ratable. There's a little more science that went into a lot of the allocation methodology. It's much more complex than you might think, you know, without getting into the bowels of our financials, especially when you get into the ancillary revenue streams and trying to figure out how to allocate those. The hardest part is assigning attribution by territory in terms of those revenue streams. How much transport revenue did I generate in this particular territory? How much capital revenue? How much SaaS revenue, right? There's been a lot of effort to allocate those revenue streams and get it right.
John?
Thanks. Thanks for the presentation. I think, very insightful. I had a question on just the commercial opportunity, you know, the digital plus land. You, you mentioned that you're going to expand into more locations. I mean, within your 2026 target, you know, the 10% commercial unit target, I mean, how should we be thinking about, you know, acquisition spend, CapEx spend to acquire that land? Like, how many locations are we thinking here? You know, any more clarity on that?
You want me to start?
Sure.
You shouldn't assume any difference in our business model. We're not buying land, okay? We're going to maintain an asset-light model, but we can, you know, we can rent land. It's just, it's an operating cost. You know, all the work that we've done is to look at the unit economics and the margin profile, and if it hits our targets, okay, as long as I'm hitting my target, I'm not investing in huge amounts of fixed assets, right? It's not going to change our model in that regard, right? It's just an operating expense to run a particular operation, so we wouldn't own land.
I'll give you a little bit more granularity. Obviously, any of the consigners that don't require land, we can offer them a nationwide solution today. Rental car companies that are willing to work with us, want to work with us, we can go and work with them nationally. You know, that's a category where we're ready, you know, when they are. When you think about repo, you know, banks and folks who are repo, we only have a few locations today, in the whole country where we can offer our marketplace plus a full solution for repo, right? Those are two extremes. The model doesn't assume by 2026, we have a full nationwide coverage for repo, as an example, if that's where you're going. It assumes we've got some locations. We've started our journey.
I don't think we're ready yet to give you an exact number, but it doesn't assume we've got the whole country covered. We're still kind of on our path. More to come on this topic, but think like journey started on the parts of commercial that need land. Another way to look at it, is it would take about 30 to 35 locations to get to about 80% of the population, approximately, okay? We have a handful of locations now. I don't know if we'll have, you know, 30 to 35 locations between now and 2026. We're not moving that fast. We're not trying to...
You know, it'll be sort of as we go along and as we, you know, see how fast this kind of paces for job. That kind of gives you, like, a proxy of today, we're just getting started. We're talking about it because we like what we see. We like the unit economics, we like the margin, we like what we see. Like a lot of things, we typically go out and experiment a little bit before we talk to you all about it. Once we experiment, once we like the math, then we start to chat about it. That's where we are today.
I'll just add one other point, though. If you remember, I was stressing conversion rates and how much of a lever they are in our financial model. The repo market is basically a 100% conversion rate.
Yeah.
Right? We think about that, we think about our model and figure out how to get into that business. You know, we need a place to put the cars, right, because the statutory requirements, it's a very profitable line of business.
Got it. Just to follow up on the financial model, I mean, if I look at the 2023 guidance, you know, the EBITDA guide versus the revenue guide implies, you know, something like a 60% incremental margin. Your long-term targets imply something like 40%-45% incremental margins. I mean, this year and the last year, a lot of the EBITDA growth has come from the units haven't grown much, you know, it's other drivers, including ARPU. Going forward, your targets clearly require a significant amount of unit growth.
Mm-hmm.
I mean, how should we think about, like, the incremental margin profile? I mean, what gives you comfort around the 40%-45%, given majority of the growth is now gonna come from actual units, like more volume, more inspections, more people on the ground versus, you know, just more drop through from ARPU the last couple of years?
I mean, there should be and look, we're not putting out, obviously, 2024 guidance at this point, right? You, you can expect there should be a natural progression, right? Because unit volume really is a great lever for our business. I mean, we've managed to manage through last year, which was a really tough environment. Units just create tremendous goodness in terms of this business model, right? You just get leverage up and down the P&L, right? I'm not going to say it's perfectly linear, but you should expect there to be a natural flow in terms of, you know, up and down the P&L as we continue to gain more volume.
Yeah, when you look at this past quarter, just as an example, the market shrunk on us by about 11% year-over-year. You know, we did really well against a market that was still, you know, going the wrong direction from a market size perspective. I think all these numbers are, you know, you take context of where the world is at that one point in time, and I think we actually did a great job of growing our share. I think the key thing we're all believing in here is we will just keep winning share at the pace we've been winning it. We didn't say even faster. All these things we're talking about here, who knows? Who knows if we'll grow faster or not.
The whole model is based on, you saw Long Island, you saw Austin, right? You saw a market in Southern California. Go do that, right? Go, just keep going do that across the country. It will if it equals 12% share consistently, not in just those markets. You saw what that contributed from an EBITDA perspective. It's really, if you believe we're going to keep winning share, which we do believe, then, and you believe some market recovery is happening, and Bill gave you guys a way to really digest each one of these assumptions, then it helps you get to our target.
Right.
Oh.
Hi.
Sorry, we got a question over there, too.
Yeah.
Go ahead, Alex.
First of all, I 100% agree, those revenue builds were super helpful. That's really nice. The things that I wanted to drill into, there was two of them. First was following up on the commercial question. $65 million of incremental revenue is coming from consumer to dealer plus commercial. That's comforting to know that you're not leaning too heavily on commercial, but commercial is a big opportunity for you guys. It's been difficult to break into. Maybe just a competitive landscape review there. What are the things that, I guess, keep you up nights wondering whether you can't maybe do better than that in commercial? A similar question on transport, but I'll let you talk on commercial first.
You first or me?
No, you first.
Okay. To give you a little color, we're close to mid-single digits % of our current units today from consumer to dealer and commercial. It's not like it's 1%, right? We're closer to mid-single digits. We're really just saying of a percentage, we look at it from a percentage, let's say it's 4-5% today, somewhere in that range. We're going to 10% of our overall units. What gives me comfort is, one, I can already taste this. I can already see rental car companies going: I'm getting more money for these cars. You heard what some of those dealers were saying about, "I'm buying great cars from consumers." The two things we have in that category aren't zero. We're in market. I'm seeing the results.
We debated, too, should it be a bigger number? It was a convenient number because all I had to do was take the dealer growth of what we've been executing and going, "Just make it be 10%. Who knows what it will be?" We feel good. Yeah, there's competitors in every category that we all go into. Take a step back and say, "Okay, what do we have to offer?" We've got unbelievable self-inspection capabilities that you saw Abou, and John and Phil and team walk you through earlier, where we have an array of ways to get our relationship started with these commercial consignors. We have a way to provide more data that our competitors can't provide. We have a way to provide more insights they can't provide.
I feel really good about being about 10% between the two, between now and 2026. I think that sets us up well to see in case some of the stuff takes a little longer, some of the stuff goes a little faster. I think we're creating the right expectations, and we'll go from there.
Okay, great. Very quick question on transport. I mean, the way that you were talking about it, you sort of frame it as, on the one hand, you say it's, sort of a function of how many transactions, you know, you're driving on the platform, which I understand there's an attach rate, but on the other hand, you talk about being a big automotive transport company. Does your phone sometimes ring from people who have nothing to do with your business, saying, "You guys ship a lot of cars. I need you to ship a car from point A to point B. Why can't I just put a car on your truck?" Like, is that a call that you would entertain? If so, to what extent is that reflected in these numbers? Thank you.
Yeah, we've got a small amount of dealers, Alex, that use us to move all their cars. Very small. It's a small portion of the overall units. We're learning. That is a category that maybe once we learn some more and we understand the market opportunity, maybe in the next couple of years, you'll hear us talk a little bit more about. That one, I would say, is in experimentation right now. That's how a lot of these things start at ACV. They start out as a little, you know, a little test, a little experiment before we're ready to talk about it. At the end of the day, it all comes down to our key principles, which is, you know, trust and transparency, right?
Transport is just another area that kind of trust ACV to take care of it. It will be helpful that before the car is picked up, which we don't have this part done yet, you go around the car with Monk before it's picked up. Maybe I'll say ClearCar the next time I say that in a year, wherever we are in our branding strategies. You go around the car. I know what the car is, when it was picked up. I know what the car is, when it was dropped off. Don't just think about the moving of the car, think about the whole process of... You know, the worst thing about logistics is potential damages. Great question. Not ready to really talk about how big that could be for us.
We're still in experimentation mode right now and just testing and learning. I think about 2 years from now, we'll be talking about it.
No, it's not baked into the model. Okay, I think, well, I think we had a- What? All right, go ahead. You go on then.
Okay.
Well, we got... Oh, I'm sorry. Go ahead, Matt.
Yeah. I'm trying to reconcile your slide, Bill, on kind of territories EBITDA with George's slides early in the presentation with which showed your territories and regions market share. What I mean by it is there any risk that some of these recent gains with these territories hitting pretty high EBITDA margins were where you have high density, which is the Northeast, where things are closer together and there's less driving? Some of those regions you showed out west are huge. Is there any risk that some of these territories aren't ever going to get to these EBITDA margins you were discussing because of these distances?
When you think about where the population is across the country, most of the population is in more dense areas. I think intuitively, I think very low risk. There's not a lot of population in, like, Montana or, you know, South Dakota or... You know, if you really look at the U.S., I think the simple way, like a lot of these 80/20 principles, you know, you know, where most of the people are in higher density, higher population areas. If you take it a step further and say, "Okay, we showed you know, markets up there that were like in Austin, you know, and Austin, you know, isn't really that different than, you know, a Long Island in a way, right?
Lots of people, growing population, cars are moving to Dallas, to moving to San Antonio. They're even moving to Oklahoma City. You know, when you look at that whole area, not really, now. I mean, I don't yet see any material differences at this point.
I mean, you drew those regions across areas where there's just incredibly low density, but you're probably just not going to even service, yeah. If some guy in Whitefish, Montana, calls you and says, "Yeah, I'd love to sell my cars on ACV," you're not going to have your inspector drive?
Mike, we have one or two people. Two. We have two people in Montana.
Okay.
Right?
They could never have that margin because they're going to have to drive forever, right?
You know, when you think about our planning, our planning looks a little bit more sophisticated at population, at where are the cars, at how many trades are coming in. Yeah, we sell some cars in Montana, right? It's not going to be the most significant part of our growth.
Okay. You wouldn't call these early territories already showing 25% low-hanging fruit? That's just the same as other territories.
Yeah, I think, you know, Southern Florida, we're doing an incredible job. We'll just keep doing better. I think, you know, parts of Texas, we're doing an incredible job. Parts of California, we're doing a fantastic job. Detroit, I think year-over-year, was our fastest-growing parts of the country, so I feel good.
Okay.
You know, those are just different parts of the U.S.
I think we got to get that microphone over to this gentleman over here. Go ahead, Peter. Oh, go ahead. In the meantime, go ahead, Peter.
Great presentation, guys. First question on wallet share. Can you talk about the differences in wallet shares across the regions. Is it, you know, you get the franchise, ones that are 20 versus 70, is it, are you the first one there? Is it, is it the technology and what you guys are talking about in just in terms of what you're providing on the inspections and conversion? Kind of some of the drivers are in the, you know, that drivers of wallet share. Do the dealers, how do they think about dual sourcing, sole sourcing, just kind of on a per franchise basis? Second topic would be just on the ARPU would be, is there any silly thing, you know, as you think about a gross profit per unit, you know, $2,000-$3,000 bucks, you know, on a cars in some cases.
If you're charging 10%, 15%-20%, how do you think about that dollar price? Not take it, the dollar price, you know. Are they willing to spend $40 on the buy side or sell side and as you think about the kind of return on their, you know, on a per unit basis?
Sure. On wallet share, I'll talk to wallet share in sort of two different typical cases. One is not a major dealer group, meaning just a regional store, a regional group. Maybe they own one or two or three stores. There's a used car manager who's making almost all decisions. The dealer principal barely pays attention to wholesale. That was really the many of you that met me when you were still at Fidelity back in the day, and we met a long time ago, that was our typical business, right? Like, that was our business. It was about that us convincing just that used car manager.
It's mainly about they've been working with this local auction for 50 years and just convincing them that they're gonna get more money on ACV, start out with a little share, and you've seen this over the years, just get more and more share and time. The other side that Waterman brought up in his slides, I think it was Austin, was where we won with more dealer groups, and you saw all of a sudden the share in our growth grow. Well, that was a little bit more top-down. That's a little bit recent. Hence why Bob asks me these questions every time we talk. You're seeing it really consistent. How are these other products helping us win? Because it's a more dramatic win, right?
You've got somebody at a COO level or some senior person in the org saying, "We wanna try to create discipline to our wholesale process. We don't want to just ship them all off to some local auction. We wanna create discipline. We wanna create process." That's still relatively new for us. We're a couple of years in on that being a part of us, gaining more wallet share, and we think about how that could compound. It's not only us getting more and more dealer groups, but those dealer groups then acquiring other stores. Hopefully, that gives a little color to the 2. The second part of your question about, like, how far could this go? Nobody model this. Nobody take what I'm saying. This is not coming from Bill, okay?
this is just, you know-
Uh-oh.
Yeah. I think Copart does a good job of showing us a model. Their revenue per unit is something to be envied for, right? I mean, even this, I don't know, whatever it is, a $50-$60, we have an extra ARPU between now and 2026. It's still, like, so small compared to the ARPU Copart has. Obviously, that's a demonstration of a, you know, high ARPU, tons of leverage in the model. I would say aspirationally, someday, I'm not saying whether it be 2030 or 2040 or whenever that is, but someday, our ARPU should be close to Copart's, right? That's maybe a fun way to answer your question. I don't wanna hold us accountable to that. You know, there's...
It's just a great thing for us to look at as we're all thinking about growing the category where we're going. Hopefully, that at least gives you an illustration. You all could go do a little homework on how high is our ARPU. Bob could probably know it offhand, but it's a big number, and, you know, that's a way to look at. Dealers are buying those cars.
Right.
At the end of the day, let's say they're selling, I don't know if they sell 3 and a half million cars, something like that. They're paying those fees. It's not like they're not buying them, right? Without our condition report, they're buying them. That's just a fun way to think about, you know, at the end of the day, that shows dealers will still pay, right? Almost all their revenue is coming from the buy side.
Okay.
Just in your regions, you talked about earlier, that are doing over 25% EBITDA margins, how do volumes compare between those regions that are doing those margins? If you look at volumes relative to those that are only doing 15%-25% margins, how do those compare?
If you look at the graph that I showed, right, with the EBITDA margin based on, you know, size of a region, right? Those regions would be in the $50 -$65 million range, right? Because scale absolutely matters, right? At $25 million, we're break even. At $50 million, we're like at 15% EBITDA margins, and at $65 million, we're 25% EBITDA margins. There's a direct correlation because basically, that the data from the regions is what we extracted to come up with that graph.
Does that account for... I guess, what you were getting at earlier was the mix of other services in there. Should we just assume that's all similar?
Yeah, it's... I mean, I don't think there's anything in there that's disproportionate, that's material enough to really matter. There's a bit of a deviation in terms of transport, right? Transport varies depending upon also density of a territory.
Right? I think for all intents and purposes, at this point, the way we're looking at the data is to not necessarily differentiate between the two. Maybe as we get more into it and try to peel away the layers of the onion, you know, it might give us more insight in terms of, you know, how we drive to a certain target. I think for investors, you should assume it's not materially different between them.
Ron?
I've got two, but maybe, George, you know, the focus on wholesale, and I think the bundling of SaaS and data is sort of a little bit of a change, I guess, going forward, given the focus on wholesale.
Sure.
Talk to us a little bit more just about the retention rates maybe you're seeing when you're not necessarily giving away the data in SaaS, but when you're bundling it in, so retention rates on dealers with that. Then, Bill, I'll have a follow-up on just inspection.
Okay. Yeah, I mean, when you just look at the core why, if the average dealer historically wholesaled about, you know, 26-28 cars a month, multiply that times $800 of ARPU per unit or whatever number you want to multiply it by, versus us making $400-$800 per month in subscription, there's just so much more benefit and leverage to use these products to win wholesale, right? So the. We're gonna try a couple of the models, but an example model is, you know, you need to give us at least 10 cars a month to wholesale or else. Don't quote me there, but that's an example model, where just do the math, 10 cars times $700-$800 bucks, versus $400-$500 bucks in subscription revenue.
At, at this point in the company's growth cycle, I look at it as a prioritization of what you want to accomplish. You don't need to take every penny off the table, right, at every stage. You know, just go out there, be really, really disciplined, be really, really focused. What do you want to achieve? We've got dealers just absolutely loving what we're doing with... If you call them right now, they might say Drivably, they might say Monk. They won't all say ClearCar yet. We haven't really done that marketing. If we're, you know, a few hundred dealers right now using Drivably, they would say, "I'm literally buying the best cars I've ever bought, and I have these huge problems." They're wicked excited.
It doesn't mean I can't later say, "Hey, for this new feature, it costs you $500 a month," whether that's in 2025, 2026. Look at this as just, you know, you've seen ACV be disciplined. You see us with these slight pivots, where if it makes sense to accomplish our number one objective, and that's all we're doing.
Right. That's the understood on wholesale, and the data corpus is getting larger, which sort of gets to Bill, I think you said inspection is the most costly part of the model. When we heard Vikas and his team throughout the day, just talking about improvements with AI.
Mm-hmm
... and the inspection process getting better, is there any way you can point to time savings or help us understand maybe the improvements because of the data that you have to the inspection process that's driving you to that 14%, I think, goal of inspections as a percentage of revenue?
The biggest driver is actually territory density, the way we've modeled it. There's a smaller factor of improvement based on the technology investments that we're making. Over time, we'll refine that analysis, right? The biggest driver by far and the best example is, again, if we look at our most mature territories, inspectors are getting 12 inspections done in a day. Our average across the country is six, which tells you we've got some that are doing two or three a day, right? That's the biggest lever by far. There's an overlay on top of that, to the extent we can make, you know, every inspection more efficient through some of these advanced tools, right? Those tools are directed at first making...
I would say, first, creating more transparency as to issues with the car that we can bake into a condition report to drive our costs down, then additionally, to the extent we could streamline inspections so they could be faster, right? That would be a kind of another benefit, I would say that's a smaller part of the modeling at this point.
Thanks.
Yeah.
While we've been making them, we'll probably call it there.
Sounds good.
Okay.
Thank you.
Perfect segue to my question, too, as it relates to the operating leverage in the model. Talk about, first, I mean, how much APEX is out in the field? Where I'm going with this, and how much ArbGuard, like, are VCI is using? Does everyone have it? Is it like every inspection is now with APEX and ArbGuard? Talk about arbitration trends, where they've been, where they were two years ago before APEX, before ArbGuard, before all this stuff, and then where they have to get to get to your model at the end, because that's a huge portion of that margin gain, right? Because the auction doesn't cost any more, right?
Yeah.
It's the assurance part, which is essentially.
Yeah
L owering your Arb costs over that time period.
APEX is completely across the country. I'm looking at Phil to make sure I'm being accurate. Let's say 99%, I think it's 100% of our inspectors are using APEX. All of them are using the other tools, you know, ArbGuard type tools. The other one you might have heard him talk about was CoPilot, which is like, it tells the inspector what to expect from that specific vehicle. Those products are out there. I don't know if we gave the percentage in the last earnings call, we did indicate, I can't remember if you gave the number or not, that the total number.
of arbitrations did go down on a percentage basis. I can't remember if we gave the number out. I think I'm going to stay away from the number.
I don't think we did, no.
I remember it was in our prep. I don't think we ever.
You can do it.
It's okay. Number of arbitrations claims has gone down, it's helping us. As Bill mentioned, some of this might have a tiny bit of seasonality to it. That's why you don't see us like shouting from the rooftop just yet. You know, Q1 in this business tends to be from in our perspective, your lowest, just because they're not going to hassle you. They need the car so desperately, Q4 is usually the biggest pain. Okay? Year-over-year, our improvements are pretty significant. Okay, if you don't just like quarter-to-quarter, if you look at year-over-year, I'm really proud of what the team's doing. That was around your first question. What was your second?
You've gone year over year better, right?
Yeah.
Without quantification. How much better, again, must you get in 2026? If, and maybe I mean, you could give some number, 10% of cars have, like, an arbitration, whatever, you're down from 10 to eight, you have to get to five or I mean, you could make it as a 10.
First, a reminder, 70% of the margin expansion is ARPU. 30% is from arbitration costs. I guess I could give you a sense for like percentage decline. Probably be about a 25% decline thereabouts by 2026. You think about all the technology investments that we're making, all the refinement over time, and, you know, there's a lot of other factors that kind of bake into this, but that would be maybe a range, 20%-25%. I don't want to give you an exact number.
Got it.
That would be directionally, if we think about our financial model, understanding that's only 1/3 of the target.
We're really giving you guys a clue that 70/30 mix of ARPU versus arbitration, who's to say it couldn't be 80/20 or 60/40, right? You've heard us say we've got multiple levers. We don't even have in the model charging the buy fees that the majority of physical auctions charge today. Said another way, if we decided to increase our ARPU a little higher, if arbitration is not going down as much, that we just gave you the way we currently think about the world, the 70/30 today. That's how we're all looking at it.
Yeah, I do think arb and goodwill will go down about what we have in the model, somewhere in that range, and whether it was 10% better or 10% worse, then you just increase fees by $10 and it basically washes it out. Just think like that we've got the levers here, and that, like, gives us confidence to give you the granularity of the data we gave you all. I mean, a few of you have heard us say, like, "Hey, you talk about all these levers. What are they?" Right? I've heard a couple of you say that. Now you see the levers, right? We can just kind of go, see how we're doing, right? See how we're doing in arb and goodwill. Right now, you're seeing, you know, we just had a phenomenal quarter on arb and goodwill.
I think, you know, you'll see us do year-over-year improvements. That'll give you at least our benchmarks. Between now and then, we'll decide exactly how we're going to land the plane.
Okay. I promise last one. Sorry. Just when you get to that level, down to 20 or whatever, where would that compare to industry standard or what Manheim's doing? I don't know their numbers. I can't even, like, say-
It wouldn't be apples to apples because we're giving seller assurance, right? The Manheim and others give a buyer insurance, so they're charging the buyer even more money than the buy fees to have assurance, okay? Which we do very little of today. We'll come back to that another day. This the sell side assurance, because this is digital and the seller doesn't want to have to return a car that's 300 miles away, was a unique differentiator that our competitors have tried to copy us, but none of them have the penetration of this sell side assurance offering that we've launched.
Thanks.
All right. I have one question. This is about kind of wallet share to dealer and I guess how the inspection process drives that. You land a dealer, they do a few units, is there a gating factor because your inspection is so rigorous and uses so much data that perhaps they have cars they don't want to put through the inspection process because they maybe made some bad purchases, and then this kind of informs how they make future purchases from competitors? I guess, is that a gating factor as we think about wallet share, kind of on a dealer to dealer basis?
There could be some dealers with that perception. There's going to be dealers who there could be the opposite. The more we show, the more money we get. Perception is a part of business. You know, if any of you studied game theory, you can go back and forth on, you know, the more you show, you know, do you get more buying or not? Yeah, I think there could be some perception that because we're showing so much, I'm not going to give you, I'm not going to give you all. I'm going to give you the cars I want you to have that inspection on. Having said that doesn't preclude us for launching different lanes. For example, we have red light cars.
Does anybody know the % of red light cars that run on ACV? Of course, Vikas knows the exact number. 15%. I love that. 15% of the cars, we might have a little less of an inspection today. Which it's as is, it's junk. I told you it's junk. When you're buying it's junk. Did I tell you it was junk? Think about the red light equivalent lanes, which is about 15% of our current lanes, are the equivalent of what you're articulating, which is: I don't want you to say, "This is the greatest thing since sliced bread," or rip it apart. Just put it on the internet. It's as is, you know, buy it as is. To me, that's just a lane.
I think our lane optimization as we mature, I think we're going to have these different lanes that do these different things, and then sellers and buyers will match what they want to buy and what they intend to have from an assurance perspective.
Great. Thanks, George.
Thank you all for all the time you spent with us. Really, really appreciate. Thanks so much, everyone.
Thanks, guys. Thank you.