Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 8, 2022

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the ADTRAN Holding, Inc. Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer Thank you. During the course of the conference call, Adtrend representatives expect to make forward looking statements that reflect management's best judgment based on factors currently known. However, these statements involve risks and uncertainties, including the continued spread and the extent of the impact of the COVID-nineteen pandemic, The ability of component supplies to align with customer demand, the successful development and market acceptance of our products, Competition in the market for such products, the product and channel mix, component costs, freight and logistics costs, manufacturing efficiencies, our ability to effectively integrate mergers and acquisitions and other risks detailed in our annual report on Form 10 ks for the year ending in December 31, 2021, and our quarterly report on Form 10 Q for the quarter ending June 30, 2022. These risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements, which may be made during the call. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Tom Stanton, Chief Executive Officer of Edtrend Holdings. Sir, please go ahead. Thank you, Brent. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for our Q3 2022 earnings conference call. With me today is ADTRAN Holdings' CFO, Mike Foliano. Following my opening remarks, Mike will review the quarterly financial performance in detail and then we will take any questions that you may have. Q3 marked a new era for AdTrans following the closure of the business combination agreement with ABDA Optical Networking on July 15. This transition point is timely as it coincides with our industry continuing a rapid transition to the fiber everywhere era, especially in ADTRAN's highest growth regions in the U. S. And in Europe. Service Providers Have aggressive goals to rapidly deploy fiber to homes, businesses and critical infrastructure sites, while increasing customer satisfaction, Streamlining operations, reducing energy consumption and ensuring network security. Our vision is clear. We want to help service providers achieve these goals by having the most complete portfolio from optical core to the customer prem. This portfolio includes scalable, secure and efficient networking infrastructure and customer premise platforms paired with best in class software. These solutions maximize subscriber experience while simplifying operations through automation. The combination with Avco provides us with the most complete portfolio to execute on this vision. Given that this is our Q1 of combined results With a full quarter of results from ADTRAN Inc. And a partial quarter from ADVA, we have adjusted the revenue categories to reflect our broader fiber networking portfolio. The new revenue categories for both products and services are subscriber solutions, access and aggregation solutions and Optical Networking Solutions. These categories cover our complete portfolio of fiber networking products and services that span from Optical Core from the Optical Core network to the customer premise network. A more detailed breakdown of these categories is provided on our Investors website. As for integration planning, this process is well underway. We are on target and the 2 companies remain excited by the customer reactions to the business combination. Looking at the results for the quarter, a key few points stand out. For 1, we are very balanced Geographically with our U. S. And non U. S. Business each contributing about 50% of the total revenue in the quarter. 2nd, each of our product categories along with our consolidated service offerings contributed meaningfully from a revenue perspective, highlighting our continued diversification across our combined portfolio. We believe this well balanced and comprehensive fiber networking portfolio coupled with Our strong global presence will continue to provide us with higher growth potential in this ongoing investment cycle in fiber networks. Our success in the quarter was driven primarily by a diverse mix of service providers that are upgrading their optical transport networks, Supplying new fiber access networks, connecting residential and business subscribers to these fiber networks and upgrading to multi gigabit capability in home Wi Fi networks. Our strongest revenue contribution came from the U. S. And Europe as expected, where operators continue to invest heavily in fiber networks and where we have a strong presence. Taking a closer look at the combined portfolio, let's step through each category of our portfolio and look at the key areas of investment and growth drivers. Starting with our Optical Network Solutions, we see broad based demand and a growing backlog for Advo's optical transport solutions with a mix of service providers, Internet content providers, government agencies and large scale enterprise customers. Demand remains strong from large scale transport systems to internally developed optical modules and flexible transceivers. This category has several exciting developments, especially in the Metro Edge with a mix of optical modules, advanced security solutions and edge optimized platforms that are an ideal complement to ADTRAN's fiber access and aggregation solutions. Building on our innovations in optical networking, Advo recently announced the creation of ANS, a wholly owned but separate company to serve the increasing requirements for secure network infrastructure. The new legal entity specializes in ANS will collaborate with national security organizations to ensure end to end networking protection that meets the highest industry requirements including safeguarding data against strikes from Quantum Computers. Moving to our fiber access and aggregation solutions, We continue to see great demand for our 10 gig fiber access platforms. In the latest industry market share report from Del Oro, Atran held the number 2 market position in North America and number 3 market position in EMEA for 10 gig PON aggregation port shipments. We are now pairing these fiber access platforms with Industry leading carrier Ethernet aggregation and network synchronization solutions from Adva that will further enhance our ability to meet the fiber access and aggregation needs for all subscriber types. In the subscriber solutions category, we saw tremendous growth during the quarter. On the residential side, where the growth is the highest, we are benefiting from enhancements to our cloud managed multi gig Mesh WiFi 6 solution offering and the growing number of subscribers that are now connecting homes that were previously passed with our fiber access platforms. On the business side, we now have a much broader solution offering ranging from carrier Ethernet edge devices and network Virtualization solutions to enterprise class routers and switches. These solutions which are also complementary to our residential offerings and aggregation solutions, helped fuel additional growth in our Subscriber Solutions segment. Incorporated into each of these product categories are software solutions led by ADTRAN's MosaicONE SaaS platform. ADTRAN's SaaS customer base, which includes hundreds of service providers, is up 31% year over year. And this includes more than 100 plus service providers that have adopted the latest version of Mosaic of our MosaicOne platform. With a much broader portfolio and larger customer base in the combined company along with expanding capabilities We expect to further accelerate growth in this strategic area. Looking ahead, we have a lot of exciting developments in the optical networking space. The recently launched 100ZR pluggable coherent transceiver is a solution that is an ideal match deeper into the network for mobile backhaul, fiber access backhaul or large scale enterprise service delivery. In addition to the 100 ZR, we also announced the Access Wave optical module, which simplifies deployment of 25 gig point services for mobile backhaul, mobile front haul and enterprise service delivery. In the access and aggregation space, ADTRAN is expanding its lead in open disaggregated fiber access platforms with a much anticipated launch of the STX-six thousand three hundred and thirty. This is the densest, highest capacity and most energy efficient 10 gig fiber access platform in the industry and is well ahead of the competition in terms of scale, performance, cost and expandability. On the subscriber side, Anterad is having great with its SDG series of platforms for Wi Fi 6 and is expanding these solutions to incorporate Wi Fi 6E and business class features for work from home and small business users. In the software space, we continue to make great advancements in our Mosaic portfolio, helping service providers automate the management of both customer premise and network infrastructure, while providing end users with tools needed to maximize their service With the combined company, we will be integrating the complete portfolio from the optical core to the customer premise under a seamless management environment with ADTRAN's MosaicONE platform. This will both improve subscriber experience and increase operational efficiency. The success we are having in these focused platforms along with exciting innovations on our roadmap have us well positioned for further growth during this ongoing investment cycle in fiber networks. Our key regions in the U. S. And Europe view fiber networks as critical infrastructure and sizable public investments remain ahead to ensure their deployment. While supply chain issues Continue to impact us, the outlook is improving. Given these factors, we remain very optimistic about our future. With this background, I will turn things over to Mike to provide a review of our financials. And then following Mike's remarks, we will answer any questions you may have. Mike? Thank you, Tom, and good day to all. I'll cover our Q3 2022 results and provide our expectations for the Q4. Please note that this is the Q1 for ADTRAN Holdings Inc, which includes the consolidation of the ADVA Financials for a partial quarter Beginning at the finalization of the business combination on July 15, which affects year over year and quarter over quarter comparisons. Since this is the case, I will refrain from repeating the first time consolidation effects when discussing year over year and quarter over quarter comparisons of our results. I will be referencing non GAAP information with reconciliations to GAAP presented in our press release and supplemental financial schedules on our Investor Relations page at investors. Adtrans.com. The supplemental financial schedules on our web page also provide certain information by segment and category, which I'll also be discussing today. ADTRAN's Q3 2022 revenue came in at $340,700,000 up 147% year over year and exceeded the upper end of our guidance range of $320,000,000 to $340,000,000 Inclusive of Advo revenues, our Network Solutions segment makes up 90% of revenues in Q3 2022 compared to 87% in Q3 of 2021. Our Services and Support segment contributed 10% of revenues in Q3 2022 compared to 13% in the year ago quarter. Year over year and quarter over quarter revenue increases are driven by our Subscriber Solutions category, which makes up 39% of revenues compared to 34% in Q3 of 2021 46% in the previous quarter. The newly introduced technology category optical networking solutions include the optical networking or cloud interconnect portfolio of ADVA and contributed 35% of revenues. Access and aggregation revenue share was 26% compared to 66% in the year ago quarter to 54% in Q2 of 2022. On a regional basis year over year, domestic revenue grew by 85% and international revenue increased by 2 70%. Domestic and international revenues are split about Equally with about 50% of our revenues each providing a more balanced business with an expanded portfolio and global footprint. Our customer diversity continues to be a focus with 2 10% of revenue customers, 1 U. S. Service provider customer and 1 international service provider customer. Q3 non GAAP gross margin was 38.1 percent, improving by 3.5 percentage points year over year and 1.7 percentage points sequentially. The increase in gross margin is due to an improved customer and product mix in the combined company and improvement in supply chain expenses, partially offset by unfavorable currency developments. GAAP gross margin is inclusive of $25,500,000 acquisition related expenses, amortization and adjustments due to the business combination with Advo. While we anticipate continued supply chain challenges, we remain focused on managing higher component Costs, freight expenses and expedite fees. Our non GAAP operating expenses were $109,000,000 increasing by 116% year over year and 101% quarter over quarter. Operating expenses were 32% of revenues compared to 36.5 percent of revenues in Q3 'twenty one and 31.5 percent in Q2 of 'twenty two. Non GAAP operating profitability was $20,900,000 which translates into a non GAAP operating margin of 6.1% compared to negative 1.9 percent in Q3 of 2021 and 4.9% in the previous quarter. The improvement in operating profitability was driven by higher revenue volume and more favorable gross margins. Other income on a non GAAP basis decreased year over year and increased quarter over quarter. The decrease on a year over year basis was mainly driven by market related losses and impairments in our investment portfolio and higher interest expense related to our credit agreements, partially offset by favorable realized foreign currency exchange fluctuations. Quarter over quarter improvement was mainly due to higher favorable realized foreign currency exchange fluctuations that offset higher interest expense and investment losses. The company's non GAAP tax provision for the 3rd quarter was an expense of $8,800,000 or 42 percent tax rate, primarily driven by the change in our annual Estimated effective tax rate related to the closing of the business combination with Advair during the quarter and the requirement to capitalize R and D expense in the U. S. Beginning in 2022 and the subsequent effect on our valuation allowance. Closing out our income statement results. Non GAAP net income was $12,200,000 And $7,700,000 after adjusting for minority shareholder interest in Advo. This results in EPS attributable to the company of $0.11 per share. The significant difference in non GAAP net income of 12,200,000 And GAAP net loss of $44,900,000 is mainly due to purchase accounting adjustments, which also of $41,900,000 after eliminating the minority interest. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $111,100,000 atquarterend. For the quarter, we used 30 $6,800,000 of cash for operations mainly due to deal closure expenses and an increase in working capital. Net trade accounts receivable were $302,000,000 atquarterend, resulting in DSO of 80 2 days compared to 91 days in the prior quarter. Net inventories were $416,000,000 at the end of the 3rd quarter, resulting in inventory turns of 3.1 compared to 2.4 in the Q2 of 2022. Both companies continue to carry a higher level of inventory and raw materials as we build supply to minimize further disruptions given the challenging electronic component market and extended lead times. Trade account payables were $276,000,000 resulting in a DPO of $71 compared to 100 in the previous quarter. Once again, Q3 was the Q1, which includes Advo financials for a partial quarter beginning at the finalization of the business combination on July 15th. The Q4, however, will be the Q1 that fully includes Advo Financials. Integration planning process is progressing well and we have now aligned our earnings call schedules to coincide on the same day. We've also taken further steps in the integration of our combined IR efforts and will align our key performance indicators as we guide in the future. Going forward, we will provide guidance on revenue and non GAAP operating margin, similar to the guidance measures provided by Adva. Looking ahead at the final quarter of the year, the continuing effects of The timing of revenue associated with large projects, the variability of ordering patterns from our customer base, as well as the fluctuation in currency rates and any additional required purchase accounting adjustments related to the Advo merger may cause material differences between our expectations and the actual results. With that in mind, our 4th quarter 2022 revenue is expected to be between $355,000,000 $375,000,000 And we expect a non GAAP operating margin between 5% 6.5%. Once again, additional financial information is available at ADTRAN's Investor Relations page at investors. Adtrend.com. Now I'll turn it back over to Tom and we will take any questions that you may have. Okay. Thanks, Mike. All right, Brett, at this time, we're ready to open up to any questions people may have. Your first question comes from Paul Silverstein with Cowen. Your line is open. Thanks. Tom and Mike, the Last week, Thursday night, you had the Avi talking about weakness in particular in their field test equipment, I assume directly related to And they indicated the weakness was general in nature. I heard that offline you were saying AT and T, Lumen, Perhaps some others. It raises an obvious concern. I trust from your comments, you certainly seem to be suggesting that you're not Seeing that weakness, but let me ask you the direct question. Are you seeing are any of your customers, especially the larger ones indicating to you A coming pullback, cutback, however you want to term it of any nature that would adversely impact future revenue? No. No. The answer is no. In fact, in a sense of We have of course 100 and 100 of customers. There are I will tell you that at any point in time some customers are pulling back or moving forward. There are some that are worried about capital. There's always this capital shift that goes on towards the end of the year, which sometimes helps you and sometimes But those are in the noise, especially when you take a look at the backlog we have. So those are in the noise. And explicitly towards the large customers, the answer is no. Okay. Mike, if I heard you correctly, I think you said the balance sheet was $111,000,000 of cash. I didn't have any chance to look directly. Was that the number? That's right, 111. Let me I think you publicly stated that you plan to take out the remaining shares of Abba with Cash, I understand it's not going to happen overnight. It's probably still a year, year plus to fully accomplish the full acquisition. But it begs the obvious question. You've only got $111,000,000 If I do the basic back of the envelope math, it's about $350,000,000 plus I think That you need to take out the remaining shares. The direct question would be, I assume you don't want to raise debt financing in these interest rates. That bears the question. The only way to do it, I guess, would be for you all to do it secondary, no? Well, that's not the only way to do it, but that is one possibility. We have lined up the debt To do it, the number is a little bit less than what you said. It's closer to $300,000,000 right now to take out the rest of them with the Current offer price, the put price in the DPLTA agreement that is still working its way through approval by the Advo shareholders. So the plan has been to do it with debt, to do it with earnings from the company, But also there are other options that we will explore. So I think we secured the debt just to make sure that we have a backstop That allows us to have flexibility, but as we get closer to those periods of time, we'll make the call as the question comes up. Got it. And one more if I may. Tom, going back to the quarterly question of how is the ramp At the various Huawei displacement opportunities, both the ones you've already secured like BT that are already ramping as well as any update you can give us On the number of awards that might have converted or the number of RPs or other opportunities that might have converted into awards And the remaining outstanding RPs that haven't yet been awarded. Any update would be appreciated. Yes. There are a handful that we have won that we are In the process of monetizing that may be a strong that may be a tough word, but it's really coming online and then monetizing. I think this quarter we I'll give ourselves some time between where we are now and the end of Q1, we expect roughly 4 new European these are all Tier 1s. So these are some countries are bigger than others to start ordering and deploying. Now they will take some time to ramp up, but those Seem to be going well. Our biggest we are launching I mentioned in my notes that we're launching the 6,330, which is A new generation of disaggregated fiber platform that allows 10 gig and really high density, really low power. It's just That's a fantastic platform. So that's just starting to come out. We will start first production of that at the end of this year is what it's scheduled for right now. We will start lab entry and we've already started that slotted lab entry with some of our current generation product. But the key to that being really coming online is the successful deployment of the 6,330, which Really changes kind of the economics of fiber deployment in that larger space. So those kind of coincide with each other. But anyway, a handful of them will come online between now and the end of Q1. There are a couple more after that, which will happen Probably in the Q3 timeframe and there are I asked that question this morning. There are about 4 different kind of very large Tier 1 opportunities That are kind of in play over the next, let's say, 3 quarters or so that haven't been decided yet. Tom, so the 4 options that haven't been Decided 4 brand new awards and then can you remind us the number of awards previously were how many? We had 6 Tier 1s in Europe, 1 Tier 1 here. The 4 so we have 2 that were modest. So that's really those 4, the additional So the 4 being new relative What you previously shared with us? No, new relative to what we're shipping, right? So not new relative to what I'm talking about basically of the 6, 4 are coming the other 4 are coming online between now and the end of Q1. Coming online being initial revenue? Initial revenue, yes. And you mentioned they're all different sizes Or any one of the 4, are they a Tier 1 of the type of a BT, a DT, that type of Tier 1? Honestly, nothing is as big as BT at this point in time, because they're just they're doing a lot of things at One time. They're kind of in the tier. I would say they're probably slightly some of them, the bigger ones are right in the DTE or slightly below that range, but it's a little lumpy. So some of them have Some Huawei replacement things projects that are coming online fairly early. Some of them have them geared towards the end of the year or next year. So It depends on the carrier and then there will be periods of time where they pop up and then go back down to a normal run rate. So it's really hard to categorize them. In the like in the total span, BT and DT are still the biggest things out there. But Tom, in the way you just described it, it Sounds like in the aggregate those are worth at least in the 10s, I assume, like, collectively in the $50,000,000 to $100,000,000 type range, if not more. I don't know if I can do that far. I would say, when we think about them in the 10s, yes. Individually or collectively? Oh, individually. Individually. Some of them will be 10, some of them will be 8, some of them will be 15 and some of them will pop up to 20 when they do a big replacement. I appreciate the responses. I'll pass it over. Thank you. Your next question is from Fahad Najam with Loop Capital. Your line is open. Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. One, If we look at AdMob, which is reiterating the full year outlook, then it sounds like for the 4th quarter, Your organic guidance is slightly a bit lower than what I would have anticipated given the improving supply chain outlook and the backlog that you're carrying. Can you maybe talk a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of the supply chain dynamics and regarding the Add track organic guidance for Q4 and I have a couple of follow ups. Yes. Let me take a stab at this and then I can Take a look. I mean, I don't I would be surprised we have our internal projections of what we think the mix will be. Q4 is coming out pretty much where we were hoping Q4 was going to come out. So I'm not sure what your numbers are So, kind of what our numbers are, but it's pretty much right in line. We're still assuming supply chain is getting better, but it is not We're talking about the overall environment. There are specific things that are still difficult and we're assuming that that difficulty doesn't Cure itself this quarter. I mean, really my comments are really kind of as we move going forward. I do Absolutely think that by the half of next year, most of those issues will have been solved. But The environment, although the number of parts is less, the criticality of the individual parts It's as high as it's ever been. So we're really expecting an environment that's very similar to what we saw in Q3, which was very similar to Q2. But I don't know what the disappointment is on from your numbers because like I said, we're pretty much right where we expect to be. Okay. If I may, can you maybe describe a little bit about what you're seeing Between the Tier 1 and the Tier 2, the Tier 3 in North America, I suspect even if we take Yavi's I still think that Tier 2, Tier 3 CapEx outlook is really solid. So maybe can you just talk a little bit about what you're seeing between the Tier 1, The dynamics between the Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3 in the U. S. And also in EMEA? Yes. Really no change in EMEA. Just broadly speaking, there's really no There's been no change at all in the U. S. I'm not familiar with the Tier 1 that Paul mentioned as far as what their explicit activity is because we don't really sell to that customer. Our other Tier 1 here in the U. S. And Not just that, but excluding the MFO space really hasn't slowed down at all. So In fact, our Tier 1 in the U. S, we had just started ramping. We've gotten orders on top of that initial ramp. They've upped their forecast for next year. So I haven't seen any slowdown there. If you go down to the kind of the next tier down, you always see in that space Towards the end of the year, movements in capital this way or that way depending on where they are in their program. So I don't see anything that's systemic there. I have Some customers that are doing more have other customers that are doing less, but in aggregate No material change from what we normally see. In all of this by the way, I still have backlog that everybody is asking me to ship. So, it really isn't that impactful over the near term. The longer term, we worry about the recession as much as everybody else does. We think some we think a lot of the momentum here, there's tiers that a recession would impact. The government spending piece Seems to be very, very solid. The kind of larger carrier initiative piece seems to be very, very solid. Most of these people, Their definition of success is how quickly they deploy broadband and the take rates seem to be going way above expectations. Tier 3, no real change in the Tier 3 space either. So I'm not saying that there aren't pockets. I don't know if these pockets are because changes in capital, long term capital spend or because of kind of nearer term Capital forecasting and where they are with budgets. But in general, the environment hasn't changed. I will tell you, I worded like everybody else about what a longer recession would do to the macro economy and then Into the vertical that we play in, but right now I haven't seen it. One last follow-up, if I may. So if you look at 2023, You still have the significant seamless funds that are yet to flow. Our dock is just trickling and the cable MSOs are beginning their dock as 4.0 update cycle. So how are you thinking about calendar 'twenty three? I know you're mindful of the recession, but shouldn't your Especially your Tier 2, Tier 3 and Tier 4 customer segments and the cable segment should really be more resilient In the face of a macroeconomic environment? Yes. I mean if you think about how recessions impact these things, first of all broadband is Pretty much up there close to electricity. I don't mean to be overstating that and I don't mean to offend anybody, But it's pretty much a requirement. So I think it's a very resilient piece. I think there are pieces where you have companies that are themselves Bidding on capital markets in order for funding, those are the ones that you have to watch out for. I think enterprise spending, you tend to see a downtick in enterprise spending When you have these type of problems, but the longer term impact to capital budgets On the carrier side, they tend to take a long time to come to fruition. So I think the depth of the recession is important. If those of you that don't remember Kind of the last recession was when we during the financial crisis or at least the last one that really kicks into my head. And The company was very resilient during that period of time. And yes, I don't expect a change here. I think we'll just have to watch it though. The depth is really the thing that I would worry about and but right now we don't see it. Appreciate the answer. Thank you. Okay. Your next question is from Michael Genovese with Rosenblatt Securities. Your line is open. Great. Thanks a lot. Have you given or can you give the total ADVA Resume that was recognized in the quarter? Yes, we can. I'll just give you a percentage of the total. So for the total quarter revenue, ad trend was 52% and adven was 48%. Okay. Great. Perfect. And now Is this the is the ownership structure pretty set? I mean, Aviva is going to continue to have a separate conference call every quarter and the Income attributable to non attrans shareholders is going to stay about Same percentage or will that change going forward? I mentioned I think I mentioned the DPL did I mention the DPLPA timing? Yes, I can. So, Mike, there is a plan to work our way to a domination agreement. And I think you might have seen some of the Releases that came out with that, but it needs to be approved at the shareholder meeting of Advo, which is now scheduled for The 30th November. After that agreement, there's other things that we will be able to do to move the profits away from the ad entity and over toward the ad trend entities. They will continue to have a conference call as long as they're Traded at some point in the future, there would be a delisting offer and would actually delist those shares. But that kind of goes back to the same question that Paul asked earlier about our plan is actually To buy up the rest of those shares and then that would be a wholly owned subsidiary of ADTRAN in the longer term. Okay. Great. So you've been asked I'm not going to ask again about the macro risk to sort of ADVA's European Metro and sort of enterprise optical revenues, I think you've answered that pretty clearly and pretty bullishly, I would say. But it looks like overall out there in the supply chain that optical does seem to be the most Supply constrained, I mean that's the message from Nokia and others who plan multiple areas that some of these analog parts Specifically needed for optical are the most supply constrained. Is that what you're seeing? Because I mean the performance there looks Pretty good. So do you have any insight on how they're managing that maybe better than some of the larger companies in the optical networking space? I would say in general, Avid is managing it better than some of the other players in the optical space. They still have issues. The majority of the issues That I see and that I think we see collectively are not specific to optical. I think they're First of all, there are still these issues associated with power supply, analog devices That aren't specific to the optical space. And then there are kind of key processors. They have some key processors and we have some key processors, Which are still my biggest issue this quarter, it has typically been kind of Glu Logic. I now have Some very specific processor issues and they have some very specific processor issues that they're working through this quarter. So I don't think that the issues on the Advo side are any deeper materially different Then the issues that we're seeing on the answering side. And in the combined company, it is still I'm expecting our gross margins. I think in the past I've tried to lay out the impact on our Gross margins and although it is improving somewhat, it was still nearly 3.5 percentage points that was due to Purchase price variation, expedite fees and freight costs that have been elevated. Now, The bright spot so far is that freight is finally moving in the right direction. But the other ones, there are still a Pretty good amount of flow through of additional costs that we're paying to be able to obtain those components in the timeframe that they needed. Your next question is from the line of Ryan Kuntz with Needham and Company. Your line is open. Thanks for the question. I wanted to ask about your different product areas. It sounds like Tom in your remarks that subscriber solutions Is the one maybe outperformed where the upside came from? And is that more demand related? Or is it kind of alleviating of the Supply chain constrictions, if you can make any commentary on kind of puts and takes on the quarter and kind of you think about the product mix going forward would be helpful. I think I don't have my notes in front of you, but I think I mentioned on last quarter that We saw that the Surprised Solutions was probably the area where we had the most work to do. We needed to get the stuff to ship and We needed to add more focus into that area to make sure once customers get a network employed, it's really important For them to be actually turn customers on to that network for obvious reasons. So we really focused on that and Saw really good movement there this quarter. So that was I think by far the biggest Kind of year over year increase for the company. We've always had we've had plenty of backlog in that area for a long time. So it was a matter of us The demand still seems was still strong, but it was a matter of us kind of clearing out some of that backlog and moving that number in the right direction to help customers. I would call it more of a product call than anything significantly shifting in the space. Got it. And are you seeing any help on the kind of share side where you may be able to execute a little better than some of your peers and able to Take share in any cases in this case of Eblis yet? Yes. But the share is really the way it has been happening maybe a little bit In Europe, but in general, the way that share happens is that share is kind of given to you as you win the OLT business. So as you win the infrastructure piece, then most times we're going to move forward with your ONTs and many times, if not most times your RG as well. So this was kind of share that we have been winning and it's just a matter of us being able to monetize that share. Got it. Super And just a quick clarification on Jim's comment earlier or Mike's comment earlier about 350 basis points impacting the quarter from supply chain expedites and such. Is that what I heard? That's correct. Great. That's all I had. Thanks so much. All right. Bye. Your next question is from the line of Paul Eze with William K. Woodruff and Company. Your line is open. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to talk a little bit about Advair's competitive position. I know that they've concentrated their focus on from the core to the edge where some of the larger players have not put as much resources in that area, mostly Concentrating on the long haul. And I was wondering how this is going to affect Advair's competitive position down in that space from basically the core to the edge Given their spending and also how does the encryption and their security expertise fit into this, first of all? And then secondly, if maybe know you touched on it, Tom. Maybe you can give us a little bit more color on this 100 ZR that you jointly developed and what that might mean for Revenues going into 2023 2024? And also who the customers that you may be selling that to? And also if you could touch a little bit about the access wave As well. And I had a follow-up. Okay. That's a bunch of questions. All right. So let me I'll cover the ANS piece first. So ANS is actually stands for What was it Mike? Network Security. Yeah. Network Security. So when we went When we combined the companies, we of course had to have government approval from both from several different countries. And ANS was a piece of that negotiation with the German government In order to make sure that the technology that is being used by various entities within the German government retained That's the right security level for them to be able to continue to use that. The technology that's coming out of that group is something that can be used by the entire company, although there's still kind of a real wall between Done in 4 different countries, not in similar to what happens here in the U. S. By the way. So this was a means for us to be able to continue that development, continue German, which is an important customer and actually allow us to get to another level of security Within the government to actually enhance sales. So over time, we think it's a very good move. It's a very profitable move as well. And they really have differentiated security in that vein. So this is just it was part of the merger. It was something that I think was going to happen anyways because I think it made sense for Advo. But it kind of open up different revenue streams and different technology streams that we wouldn't have had in the past. In relation to how these things Flow and what Advo's focus has been, I tend to think of them as Last Mile or Metro Edge is kind of where their kind of hotspot is in relation to optical. The reason they were a good fit for us is that's exactly where our customer base is looking at augmenting at this point Their network as they kind of finish out these last mile networks that they're building, I shouldn't say finish out because we have a long ways to go, but as they increase The capacity requirements of those last mile networks, they need to be able to aggregate and efficiently Transport that traffic. So that's kind of where their sweet spot was. And we're already seeing cross selling opportunities across both companies where they They'll tell each other they have a very good product, a very competitive product and we feel good about where that's at. Mike, you got the information on the 100 CR? Yes. That product actually is commercially available next year. So I really can't tell you what the revenues are at this point, but it will fit in for service providers as well as MSOs is the market that it's targeted toward. So we'll have more information to come on that as it's released. Okay. The other follow-up question again is on the SaaS subscribers. Is there anything that you can share with us? I think you were at $1,300,000,000 something like that at the end of June. Can you talk to that at all and give us a little flavor for how that's going, maybe some hard numbers? Well, you can think about SaaS subscribers let me put it in a way that we actually have the numbers for. So you can think about SaaS subscribers as a fallout to SaaS carriers, right? And our SaaS carrier growth was up 31% year over year this quarter. And that's been about the rate that it has been ticking along at. So SaaS customer growth will typically outpace SaaS carrier growth because in fact it will outpace, right? Because you have new carriers coming online Plus you have the older carriers being more matured adding more subscribers to their network. Okay. I was trying to focus on the actual number that your customers have signed up of their subscribers. Do you have anything available on that? It's the actual paying customers that pulls up to me guys. I don't have the growth rate on that number, Mike. I know it's well in excess of you mentioned before and I mentioned before it's over $1,200,000 Actually it's closer to $2,000,000 at this point, but I don't know if I have that I don't have that number in front of me. Okay. That's good. Thank you very much. All right. Thanks very much. Your next question is from the line of Tim Savageaux with Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open. Hey, good afternoon. I Want to make sure I get this one in there, which is if we can address kind of where you expect the tax rate to go over time, some kind of bouncing around. But that's not my main question, but I want to make sure I don't forget it. Where I did want to focus is on the kind of ad trend organic front. As it's been discussed before, it looks like subscriber was driving the growth. You actually saw access and aggregation down a bit, both sequential and year over year. I wonder if you could address dynamics there for the quarter. And then as you look at the guide, it looks like organically you're guiding down a bit Sequentially from an ADTRAN perspective, is that just really normalizing that supply catch up on the subscriber side? Or How do you expect things to break down between do you expect any growth on the access and aggregation side in Q4. Thanks. Let's start with the tax. Go ahead. And then we can move to the other piece. So you're right our tax rate has bounced around a lot as we've gone through The quarters this year and you saw the 42% effective rate there on a non GAAP basis in Q3. I would expect that going forward that for the year, I'm estimating That it's probably going to be about in the high teens, which is a little lower than what we had said previously. So probably high teens, somewhere sub-twenty. But to get to that rate for the year, I think for Q4, we will still have an elevated Tax rate that won't be something similar to what we saw in Q3. So if you look at the total year and adjust that out, Actually end up with something that's probably also in the low 40s again. And then as moving into the next years, I think You're a lot better off to try to model it somewhere at just under 20%. In relation to the guidance, I mean, the guidance is basically flat, which is As you probably know if you follow us typically we see it down Q4. So like I said it's pretty much in line with what we expected it to be. In relation to aggregation, We have a lot of irons in the fire there. We have backlog that would allow us to actually materially grow that number from this space. We're also trying to still get a lot of CPE out the door, a lot of the subscriber solutions pieces out the door. And then we really have a wrap up of the $6,330,000 which is kind of a critical wrap up for us which should start at the end of the quarter. So I mean we have a lot of different ways to get there, but I can't tell you specifically what that aggregation number is going to look like at this point. Okay. Thank you. Okay. Your next Question comes from Paul Silverstein with Cowen. Your line is open. Paul, do you want to answer your question? It's Great. It's a beautiful time. Three questions, if I may. Advo, going back to Macro concerns, Ava corrected it for long. Historically, they've gone they've derived about 30%, I think, of their revenue from enterprise with the bulk of that, I believe, Being in Europe consistent with them being headquartered in Europe and having done a good job in Europe historically, one would think that European Enterprise Be most at risk from macro. Again, it doesn't sound from your guidance, but I got to ask any signs of weakness? And then I got 2 other quick questions. No. And a lot of that is kind of their Ethernet product. And Yes. Just no. The answer is no. I mean from any way you look at it. I won't tell you that it won't be impacted, but I will tell you we haven't seen that impact yet. All right. Going back to Mike, going back to the Mosaic SaaS number you gave For the SaaS number, that was number of carriers, was that the 31% year over year increase you were referencing the number of your service provider customers That have adopted? Is that what that is? Yes. Okay. That's correct. And breaking down the subscribers is I mean we can't do that. We just haven't done that. Right. And I assume also by extension that if we spoke in terms of revenue, you can't share with us. Well, I assume the number is very small at this point. If I look at my software and service number, which includes contracts associated with software and maintenance, The number is getting to be yes, the growth rate has been solid for the last 2 years, but I don't think it's going to be too far to where we actually start just breaking those numbers out so you can see them. I'm looking for stability and I'm looking for longer term. Really, the key is I want to be confident about the growth rate and kind of where we are with that product line Before I start making sure that we're in a mature place there and I don't think we're quite there yet. Tom, my apologies if you said this in the past, but is it over $10,000,000 or well less than $10,000,000 in the quarter? Dollars? Yes. I assume it's Yes, it's over. It's hard to heart. Software and SaaS number, Well, it is over $10,000,000 but that is not just Yes, that includes software. Software and size is over $10,000,000 yes. All right. I'll move on my last question. Mike, on the gross margin progression, you all have seen a more Significant recovery than most, but you were also in the more severe end in terms of the impact of supply chain, the initial impact in getting hit. My question to you is looking forward, any thoughts on how far, how Fast, you can get back to the low 40s from once you came. And I understand now there's add to the mix. Their margin structure, if I remember On a like for like basis, I. E. The U. S. Non GAAP was actually a little bit better, I think, than your margin structure. And one last point in connection with the question. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Subscriber Solutions has got a lot of different products including software in there, but I assume the dominant revenue Is from your relatively lower margin or absolutely low margin ONT platforms that you referred to as being a big Part of the year over year growth, which is counterintuitive given nice rebound you saw. I guess another way to state it is, You put up strong growth, strong recovery in gross margin notwithstanding what I would think would be the negative, the drag effect of that big increase in O and C revenue, which is Encouraging all of things being equal. But any insight you could share, Michael, what happened to the quarter? And more importantly, what's the question? Let Let me take the first half of that, which is on the second part of your question. First of all, that is fairly insightful. Yes, we did ship a lot more CPE on purpose and yes, they We were able to come up with pretty decent gross margins on what is typically a very low gross margin mix. I would tell you that has been Absolutely helped by the software sales associated with that piece, which was impactful. And then there's a secondary help, which is Some of the functionality including things like 10 gig are also helpful. But in general, yes, it was a pretty good quarter from a gross margin perspective for Subscriber Solutions. Mike, I don't know if you want to cover the first part. Yes. So Paul, some of it was mix, but you heard me say that there's about 3.5 percentage points of still headwinds. I think when I reported last quarter, I was at about 4.6 If I recall a 4.7. So it's definitely moving in the right direction. The biggest improvement so far has been in Freight and logistics where rates are starting to fall and things are starting to free up. As far as paying Fees to be able to get components, I think you heard Tom say there are fewer issues, but there's still some big issues that all have to be Resolved and worked. So I think overall that's moving in the right direction. We're seeing fewer and fewer of the broker buys and Excessive payments to be able to get components now. Some of that's still on the balance sheet. So it will for ones that we may have purchased in prior quarters at higher costs. That will bleed off over time as we go. But I think you saw a pretty good Improvement in the quarter moving in the right direction. We do have a different headwind, but we've had for some amount of time and that's just The FX issues that are out there with the euro and the pound sterling when you roll those back to dollars. And if you try to just look at that over the last quarter and say what was the effect on gross margin On that one, it's almost 2 percentage points, maybe a little bit less than that. So I think that one has Somewhat stabilized at this point, but I think over the last quarters, we've seen that whole flow On the downward trend with the dollar strengthening as well. So I think we're just learning how to manage it all better as we go. Mike, I know you didn't give guidance for gross margin, but any thoughts given all those puts and takes, any thoughts on what type of gross margin you could generate in Q4? I think it may be just a bit stronger sequentially. Yes. I'm not expecting much. You think about it kind of in the same range of where we are right now. Very close. Yes. I think your question was when do we get back to $40,000,000 And I think I'm pretty confident as we go through next year, We will continue to move in that direction sometime in 2023 barring any kind of other craziness that happens. We should be Aaron, we should have some mix improvement even though SS and E is was pretty good. It's still not the same as What we get on the access and aggregation side. All right. Anything else, Paul? All right. Look, Tom, just to be clear relative Mike, it's David. Do you expect to get back to the low 40s at some point in 2023? I think you said improvement. So I'll let Mike answer that. Yes. I think 40 ish or slightly above, yes. I mean some of this is just kind of unknown with what happens to the supply chain, But we're definitely heading in the right direction. Yes. All right, guys. I appreciate it. Thank you. Okay. At this point, I see we are Past time. So I appreciate everybody joining us for our conference call this quarter and we look forward to talking to you next time. Bye bye.