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Earnings Call: Q3 2026

Nov 12, 2026

Summary

Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew despite cost pressure, with FSM volume recovery and resilient demand. Guidance was reiterated, while leverage expectations rose; refinancing, planned shareholder returns, and the Crown Switch PMTA mark key developments.

Operator

Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, everyone. Welcome to AIR Global's Q3 and Nine Months 2026 Results Conference Call. All lines are in listen-only mode. Management's prepared remarks will be followed by investor Q&A. To ask a question, please press star one. To withdraw your question, please press star two. I will now hand over to Gaurav Jain, AIR Global's Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy. Please go ahead.

Gaurav Jain
Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, AIR Global

Good morning, and thank you for joining AIR Global PLC's Q3 and nine months 2026 earnings call. Joining me today are Stuart Brazier, our CEO, and Bassem Lotfy, our CFO. We will take your questions after the prepared remarks. We issued our Q3 earnings press release this morning. The release and accompanying materials are available on our investor relations website, ir.air.global, and on the SEC's website, sec.gov. An audio replay of today's webcast will be available later today. Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and information. These statements involve risks and uncertainties, many beyond the company's control. AIR Global disclaims any duty to update forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

Please review our safe harbor statements and risk factors in today's press release and in our most recent filings with the SEC, which contain additional information and a description of risks that may result in actual results differing materially from those contemplated by our forward-looking statements. We will present results on both an IFRS and non-IFRS basis. Non-IFRS measures, such as adjusted EBITDA and their IFRS reconciliations, are detailed in our press release. Non-IFRS financial measures should not be used as a substitute for our results reported in accordance with IFRS. With that, I will turn it over to Stuart.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Thank you, and welcome, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. Turning to the Q3, revenue rose 11.1% to around $100 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased 7.7% to around $31 million. FSM shipment volumes grew 5.8% after a 9% decline in the first half, and price and mix added a further 5%. Shipment activity continued to recover from the supply chain disruption, and end consumer demand remained resilient. We are reiterating guidance for 2026 and the medium term. Bassem will take you through the financials in more detail shortly. Before that, I want to spend a few minutes on AIR's transformation and our journey to become the leading specialist in social inhalation and modern nicotine experiences. Our core business is distinctive.

Through Al Fakher, we are the global leader in flavored shisha molasses, with an estimated 36%-44% global volume share in the markets where we operate as of the end of 2024, and with very strong positions in key markets, including the United States, where our market share is estimated at approximately 60%-65%. The category is social, cultural, and lifestyle-led. It is consumed in homes and lounges across generations and geographies, and is not simply a nicotine delivery occasion. This is why shisha volumes have remained resilient over the last few years, unlike many traditional tobacco categories that have seen significant volume declines. Since 2018, Al Fakher has grown volumes modestly in the U.S. and globally. We estimate that Al Fakher reaches approximately 14 million consumers globally, putting it amongst the top 10 global tobacco brands by consumer reach. Shisha remains a highly affordable indulgence.

In the U.S., annual consumer spend on at-home shisha is about $110, which is significantly lower than cigarettes, pod-based vaping products, and nicotine pouches, where annual consumer spend typically ranges from $400-$2,200. For consumers, a modest increase in the retail price of flavored shisha has a relatively limited impact on overall expenditure. For AIR, however, these pricing actions can provide meaningful support to revenue growth and inflation recovery. Our price mix growth of 11.1% in the first nine months reflects both the strength of our brands and the affordability of the category. Importantly, we have held market share despite these pricing actions, which reinforces our confidence in the long-term earnings growth potential of the business. Turning to new growth categories, our focus is on our U.S. rechargeable pod vape platform called Crown Switch.

In early November, we submitted our U.S. Premarket Tobacco Product Application for Crown Switch. The application reflects a substantial body of evidence, and its submission is an important milestone in our strategy to build a responsible, science-led presence in the regulated U.S. vaping market. We believe Crown Switch has the potential to provide adult smokers with a differentiated alternative to combustible cigarettes, and we look forward to the FDA's review. Of note, Crown Switch is powered by Greentank's Quantum Chip™ technology. Aerosol testing, included in our PMTA submission, demonstrated low or non-detectable levels of certain harmful and potentially harmful constituents compared with other FDA-authorized comparator products, which we believe supports the differentiated profile of the platform. Our strategic investment in Greentank secures access to that technology, enhanced commercial terms, and a long-term supply arrangement.

Al Fakher's reach gives us an established consumer base and strong brand recognition as we prepare Crown Switch for U.S. commercialization. We recognize that brand strength alone does not guarantee success, and regulatory approvals, consumer adoption, and disciplined execution will determine how quickly we can scale. One key question that we receive from investors is why vapes ahead of pouches. There are three reasons for it. First, as a smaller business than the large multinational tobacco companies, we must prioritize our resources, and today for us, that means vapes ahead of nicotine pouches, as we have already achieved success in disposable vapes through licensing Al Fakher Crown Bar, which accounted for 4% of 2025 revenues. Second, we believe that the near-term profitability trends in U.S. vapes and pouches are going in opposite directions, reflecting the crackdown on illicit vapes in the U.S., while pouches are seeing intense competition.

Third, whilst we believe that the long-term economics of modern oral will be attractive once competition stabilizes, we plan to participate only when we have a differentiated product and a right to win, which we do not have today. Our investment objective is to generate attractive returns on invested capital across both FSM and new growth categories. We do not aim to run an NGC business that, while contributing to revenue, generates little or negative EBITDA in perpetuity. With that, I will hand over to Bassem for a closer look at our Q3 and nine-month financial performance.

Bassem Lotfy
CFO, AIR Global

Thank you, Stuart, and good day, everyone. I will take you through our group and segment results, the reconciliation from reported earnings to adjusted EBITDA, and net debt. Starting with group performance, Q3 revenue increased 11.1% to $100 million compared with $90 million a year earlier. Gross profit rose 9.8% to $53 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased 7.7% to $31 million. Operating profit was $18 million compared with $17 million last year. Profit for the period increased to $8 million from $7 million, and basic EPS was $0.05. Elevated logistics, material, and factory footprint costs continued to weigh on margins in the quarter. Gross margin was 53.3% compared with 54% a earlier. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 31% compared with 31.9% in Q3 2025.

On supply chain and costs, following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we established alternative routes, and shipments resumed as they came into operation. Higher energy, shipping, insurance, security, and raw material costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East are affecting our industry, and AIR is no exception. We expect this prolonged period of higher costs to bring modest margin compression in 2026. We are mitigating it through alternative routes, pricing actions, and the accelerated reorganization of our factory footprint, and our Romania facility remains on track to open in the Q1 of 2027, further diversifying our manufacturing footprint. If and when costs such as shipping normalize, which we believe they should given historical patterns, we would expect AIR to capture the majority of the savings. Until then, our priority is to protect supply and maintain product availability for consumers.

For the first nine months, revenue increased 6% to $307 million. Gross profit rose 4.6% to $170 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased 2.3% to $103 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 33.5% compared with 34.7% in the prior year period. FSM shipment volumes grew 5.8% in the Q3, while price and mix increased 5%. For the first nine months, shipment volumes were down 4.6%, reflecting the first half disruption, while price and mix increased 11.1%. Turning to our segments, Americas revenue increased 25.6% to $22 million in Q3. Adjusted EBITDA declined 3.6% to $8 million, mainly because of higher cost of goods sold. For the first nine months, revenue grew 10%, and adjusted EBITDA increased 10.5%. In MEAA, Q3 revenue rose 9.4% to $64 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased 2.4% to $25 million.

For the first nine months, revenue grew 5.7%, while adjusted EBITDA declined 2.2%. MEAA includes our corporate headquarters, so its results reflect higher ongoing public company costs alongside supply chain and material cost pressures. Europe's Q3 revenue increased 4.9% to million. Adjusted EBITDA was $1 million compared with approximately breakeven last year. For the first nine months, revenue grew 2.1%, while adjusted EBITDA declined to $1 million from $2 million. In new growth categories, Q3 revenue was slightly negative, reflecting the timing of trade incentives. The adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $3 million from $4 million. For the first nine months, the loss narrowed to $11 million from $13 million, as lower operating costs and more focused investment behind new product launches reduced losses.

I will now explain the main adjustments between our reported loss and adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months. We recognize that 2026 year-to-date results include a number of one-off items. AIR prepares its financial statements in accordance with IFRS as issued by the IASB, and as a NASDAQ-listed company, follows the SEC's requirements for non-IFRS measures. Our intention is to present adjusted numbers that we believe better reflect the underlying operating performance of the business. For the first nine months, we reported a loss for the period of $74 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $103 million. The largest adjustments relate to our listing, which completed on NASDAQ in May 2026.

The adjustments include $48 million of non-cash expense for equity issued in connection with the business combination, $48 million of transaction fees, $14 million of share-based compensation, and $10 million of public company readiness costs. Other adjustments include $4 million of supply chain-related costs resulting from the Strait of Hormuz disruption and $3 million of regulatory costs relating to the preparation and submission of our U.S. PMTA, which we consider infrequent and non-recurring relative to our normal operating activities. The non-cash equity issuance expense, transaction fees, and public company readiness costs together account for $106 million of listing-related adjustments. These items are not representative of the business's recurring earnings capacity. We present adjusted EBITDA to help investors assess our underlying operating performance separately from items that are non-cash, associated with the listing, or not expected to recur regularly.

Adjusted EBITDA is not a substitute for IFRS results or cash flow. Investors should consider both measures alongside cash generation, leverage, and the expected reduction in exceptional costs as AIR moves beyond its listing and refinancing activity. Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet, total borrowings comprising current and non-current borrowings, including lease liabilities, were $404 million at September 30. Cash and cash equivalents were $39 million, resulting in net debt of $365 million. Rolling 12-month adjusted EBITDA was $142 million, giving a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.6x . In summary, the Q3 marked a recovery in operating performance with double-digit revenue growth and high single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth despite continued cost pressure. Our focus is now on improving cash conversion and reducing leverage and delivering disciplined shareholder returns. With that, I will hand back to Stuart.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Thank you, Bas. Let me now turn to our capital structure and shareholder returns. Since our first half results, we have strengthened our capital structure and set out a clearer approach to returning cash to shareholders. on October 1st, we issued $425 million of senior unsecured notes with a coupon of 7.875%, maturing in 2031. We used the proceeds to refinance our existing term loan and repay the outstanding revolving credit facility, which broadens our access to capital, extends our debt maturity profile, and increases our financial flexibility. Subject to board approval, we also intend to initiate an annual dividend of $0.28 per share paid in quarterly installments beginning with our Q1 2027 results, and to maintain a progressive dividend policy thereafter.

We expect to fund shareholder returns from equity free cash flow, which we define as cash flow from operations less capital expenditure, interest expense, and principal and interest payments on lease liabilities. In addition, we are establishing a repurchase program that would allow us to repurchase up to $100 million of shares through December 2029, subject to market conditions, capital requirements, and applicable approvals. Our capital allocation framework balances three priorities: investment in high-return growth, prudent leverage, and shareholder returns. Including the impact of dividends and share repurchases, we expect net debt to adjusted EBITDA to decline to 2x or below by December 2027. Now turning to guidance. We are reiterating our full year 2026 operating outlook. We continue to expect broadly stable shipment volumes compared with 2025, revenue growth of 4%-6% in US dollars, and low to mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth.

One change to highlight is leverage. We now expect year-end net debt to adjusted EBITDA of approximately 2.5 x compared with 2.1 x previously. It reflects bond issuance and refinancing cash flows and temporary working capital timing from the supply chain disruption, which we expect to normalize during 2027. We now expect full-year capital expenditure of $11 million-$14 million, compared with $15 million-$18 million previously. Our expected effective tax rate remains approximately 15%. Our 2027 and medium-term operating framework is unchanged. Low single-digit organic FSM shipment volume growth, mid-single-digit FSM revenue growth, and high single-digit FSM adjusted EBITDA growth, assuming non-disruptive excise tax increases. Let me close with three messages. First, we lead our category in a high-margin business with resilient consumer demand, and our 2026 operating outlook and medium-term operating framework are unchanged.

Second, we have strengthened our capital structure and set out a clear approach to shareholder returns, with leverage expected to fall to two times or below by December 2027. Third, we have a disciplined option on future growth. We have submitted the Crown Switch PMTA, and we will invest selectively in new growth categories, with a focus on generating attractive returns on capital. AIR combines category leadership, strong cash generation, multiple growth drivers, and an expected reduction in leverage. We believe these attributes position the business well for sustainable value creation and attractive long-term shareholder returns. Thank you for joining us today, and we will now take your questions.

Operator

We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question is from Nick Anderson with Roth Capital Partners LLC. Please proceed with your question.

Nick Anderson
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners LLC

Yeah, thanks for taking the questions, and congrats on the quarter here. First for me, just on the volume recovery, how much of it reflects distributor replenishment versus underlying consumer demand? Where would you say channel inventories currently stand relative to normal levels? If you could break that down by region, that would be really helpful. Thank you.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Yeah. Hi, Nick. Thanks for the question. You can see that in the Q3, we basically recovered half of the lag that we had in volumes in the first half, and we're guiding towards flat volumes for the year. We expect there still to be more recovery coming through in the last three months. In terms of stocks, when we're talking about raw material stocks, they're higher in the factories at the moment, given the uncertainty of some of these supply chains. Whereas in the past we might have had one secure route to get raw materials in, we're now having to use multiple routes to get those in. In addition, of course, we have moved U.S. production to our Poland facility, which has also involved us building up stocks, higher stocks at that facility of raw materials.

That's kind of a summary of what's going on in the market at the moment. But overall, demand has remained resilient. In a normal year, our midterm guidance is low single-digit volume growth. We're expecting flat volumes this year because of a headwind from global travel retail, which is our duty-free business, mainly in the airports in the Middle East, which were heavily impacted during the first half of the year. But we've now seen that recovery coming through in H2.

Gaurav Jain
Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, AIR Global

Yeah, and if I could add to that, Nick, clearly till nine months, our volumes are down 4.6%, and we are saying full year the volumes are flat. The end consumer demand doesn't fluctuate like that. There is a bit of inventory replenishment, to the question you were asking. Now the gap is very little, and we are not seeing either excess inventories or lower inventories versus end demand by the end of this year.

Nick Anderson
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners LLC

Great. I appreciate that color. Second for me, on Greentank, you have the option to increase investment there. What would be the regulatory or commercial catalyst you're looking for to exercise your option, and how does that compare to allocating capital to maybe share repurchases or other investment opportunities? Thank you.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Yeah, so we have the option or the warrant with Greentank. We believe we have a differentiated product. We believe that it's relevant for us, but we also believe that it can be relevant for the industry. That's why we've got the warrant.

We've just submitted the PMTA. The next milestone for us is to look for the FDA to accept that submission for scientific review. That would then allow us to start marketing and selling the product in the U.S. Obviously, if we were successful in doing that, there would be obviously more benefit and value in us exercising that warrant. Those are the sort of the steps that we need to look for, Nick, for us to decide to do that. Of course, if Crown Switch is accepted by consumers and begins to do well, then it would make very good sense for us to exercise.

Nick Anderson
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners LLC

Great. That is it for me. I will pass it on. Congrats again on the quarter.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Thank you.

Operator

Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Our next question is from Morayo Adesina with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Morayo Adesina
Assistant VP and Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Hi, team. Thanks very much for taking my question. A few from me. Just on the leverage, obviously expected to be a bit higher at the 2026 year-end. Can you just lift out the bridge of the increase between the bond-related costs and the working capital movements? Then how should we think about the working capital normalization next year in terms of timing? The phasing between the two halves, how should we think about that? That is number one. Then just a second question on the cost pressures. When are you expecting those to normalize? How should we think about pricing in Q4 and then going into next year?

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Yeah. Okay. Maybe I'll take the last one first. Obviously, it's quite difficult to predict when things are going to normalize or stabilize in the Middle East. I mean, history always tells us that over time, things do normalize. We've taken pricing this year, and we will also take pricing next year to ensure that we are passing this cost inflation onto the consumers. When things do normalize, then obviously we will have the benefit of higher margins. In terms of how working capital works in general for the business, historically, the first half of the year has always been a little more working capital-intensive than the second half of the year, and that has historically been reflected in the cash flows.

Bassem Lotfy
CFO, AIR Global

Yeah. I mean, in terms of the leverage at the end of the nine months, there was an impact from higher stocks, which we expect some of it to unwind by year-end. That's why we're guiding towards a ratio of 2.5. It's increased versus the prior guidance mainly because there were cash costs related to the bond issuance, and we expect still a little bit of working capital impact from the disruption to remain at year-end, but we expect those to unwind going forward.

Gaurav Jain
Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, AIR Global

In terms of the specific numbers, Morayo that you were seeking, what we can say is that probably on the leverage increase, which we are saying, one-third is on account of the debt refinancing, and two-thirds is on account on the higher working capital. That is just because the disruption is, of course, lasting longer than the expectation was in August. But it should unwind over time, and that's why at the end of next year, we are saying that the leverage will be below 2x.

Morayo Adesina
Assistant VP and Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Great. Thank you. That's helpful. Just one follow-up on Europe.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Sorry, I was.

Morayo Adesina
Assistant VP and Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Oh. Sorry, go on.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Yeah. No, no. I was just going to add, obviously, we've got the commissioning of the Romanian factory. The Romanian factory will come online Q1 next year, and that de-risks the factory footprint for the longer term as well.

Morayo Adesina
Assistant VP and Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Great. Thank you. That's helpful. Then just on Europe, just a follow-up. I remember at H1, you had said that you expected some of the delayed shipments to sort of catch up through Q3 and Q4. So just wondering how much of that catch-up has occurred in Q3 and how much remains for Q4?

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Yeah. There was volume recovery in Q3. Mix in Europe hasn't been positive, though. Europe is quite a tough place for business at the moment. Disposable incomes are under pressure. I say we have seen volume recovery, but the geo mix has diluted the impact on the top line. You will have noticed as well, Germany announced an excise increase that will be implemented from the 1st of March next year. It's lower than it could have been, but it is still a step up from where we are today. The big challenge in the European markets is, of course, as excise does increase, that needs to be passed on to the consumer. If authorities are not stamping out on illicit trade, then that can be a real risk to the legal market in the E.U. Through Q4, we expect still to see good volumes.

But if we're looking into the midterm, we see the U.S. as being a key driver for our business, followed by our Middle East, Africa, and Asia region, and Europe probably being the lowest performing of our three regions in terms of growth.

Morayo Adesina
Assistant VP and Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Great. Thank you. That's helpful. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Our next question is from Kyo Khan with Cantor Fitzgerald. Please proceed with your question.

Kato Mukuru
Managing Director and Financials Research Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald

Hello. Do you mean Kato Mukuru, by any chance? Hello?

Gaurav Jain
Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, AIR Global

Hi, Kato. Yes, I think the operator probably mispronounced your name.

Kato Mukuru
Managing Director and Financials Research Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald

It wasn't close. Anyway, I had two questions. On the $100 million of share repurchase, it says that you have until December 2029. Can you remind me how much can be done in any single given year? For this year, is it $25 million a year up until 2029? On the margins, I understand obviously the cost pressures because of disruption being in Abu Dhabi. As this normalizes, how high do you think, by the time we get out two or three years, you think the margin recovery we can see? I still think it could be significant, because you've got a lot of flexibility on the cost once everything normalizes. Just to give us a sense of how much higher on adjusted EBITDA margin basis, or even on a gross margin basis, whichever one is more convenient for you.

Just want to get a sense of how much wider we can get. Thanks.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Yeah, sure. So, look, taking the last point, if you are kind of projecting forward, costs beginning to normalize, then at a gross margin level, I think you can probably expect over time 300 basis points improvement. So certainly some potential great benefit when things do normalize. The first question was about the share buyback. There is no sort of defined year by year what we are going to do. We are limited by how much we can do, and this depends on the trading volume. So we can repurchase up to 20% of the weighted average daily volume for the previous 30 days, right? Every Friday, that is reset. Obviously, we will decide when it is appropriate for the shareholders and for the business to do the, and exercise the repurchase.

Gaurav Jain
Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, AIR Global

Yeah, and if I could add to that, Kato, it is a pricing-led business model. If you look at our larger peers and just separate out their core businesses, you will see that margins, for a fairly long period of time, they continue to expand. So there is no theoretical limit to how high margins can go. It is true for us as well, and it is about essentially the spread between the price per kilo and the cost per kilo at which we sell. Stuart's comment, 300 basis point gross margin expansion, it is more like a medium-term comment rather than that being the terminal sort of potential of how high margins in that business can go. Of course, there is leverage on the operating cost side as well.

If you look at our medium-term guidance, where we are saying that revenue growth is 4%-6% on FSM and EBITDA growth is high single digit, then essentially, you are looking at a 50-100 basis point of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion on a year-on-year basis. If we are recovering from a depressed margin base, then in any one year, it could be a bigger expansion. So those factors will need to be kept in mind.

Kato Mukuru
Managing Director and Financials Research Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald

Fantastic. Thank you very much.

Operator

Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Our next question is from Gerald Pascarelli with Needham. Please proceed with your question.

Gerald Pascarelli
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Needham

Hey, guys. Thanks very much for the question. I have a couple here, but just with the PMTA submitted for Crown Switch, I'd love to get your broad thoughts on the U.S. vape market in general. There's been some progress just when it comes to curbing the illicit market. I understand that you need approval and certain things need to happen before a rollout, but just in an ideal situation, what would you need to see, or changes you would need to see in the US market to maybe be, to get more constructive as you think about rolling out there eventually? Thank you.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Yeah, so I think earlier, I mentioned that we see the pod-based vape market in the U.S. as the biggest opportunity for us. There's a number of reasons for that. Firstly, we see the FDA, the authorities taking things more seriously with regard to actually stamping out or reducing the illicit vape market. That obviously is a great opportunity for the legal market to grow. The second point is that they've been a little bit more flexible now on flavors, and you're seeing a number of submissions going into them that will allow more flavors than the tobacco and the menthol that they have historically allowed. Third point is, the biggest player in the U.S., their profitability on their platform is actually very, very good. I'll ask Gaurav to talk about that a little bit more in a second.

And when you compare that to what's actually happening with the nicotine pouches segment, where there's heightened competition and we're beginning to see a squeeze on margins as pricing gets more and more aggressive. So we're very excited about the prospect of having a differentiated product in what we believe will be a more profitable and more valuable segment as we go forward. In terms of timing, we said that we would submit the PMTA this year. We have now done that. When I previously talked about that, I said that it could be six months before we get the next approval, which would mean that the PMTA goes to scientific review, and at that point, we can then sell. But it could be before that, but we'll just have to wait and see, Gerald. Gaurav, maybe you just talk a little bit more about

Gaurav Jain
Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, AIR Global

Yeah. Good morning, Gerald. I think the vape market in the U.S. and globally, it is very competitive. There is clearly a big section of the market which is illicit product. It does appear that the regulators are cracking down on it in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world. But if you walk into any store, you will clearly see still a lot of products which you could call it unauthorized. That feature of the market exists, but there is a clampdown happening. If you see at the number of existing big players who are launching vapes in the US market, or new players, it is actually much lesser than what you are seeing in the pouch market.

That is why actually some of our peers have said, and the largest peers have said that, while the end market growth in terms of consumer spend could be low to mid-single digit, but as the market moves from illicit to legal market, the manufacturer revenue pool could be compounding at mid-teens over the next few years. We agree with that assessment based on our numbers. For us, that is a very attractive growth market for us. We are a very small company, as you can see, versus the bigger players. For us, even tiny market shares, but profitable market shares will make a big difference. That is how we are approaching the US vape market, that creating a meaningful business for us, which is profitable and creates an impact.

Gerald Pascarelli
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Needham

Perfect. Got it. That is very helpful color. I just had a, I guess, a housekeeping question on EBITDA. You had a really nice recovery. It is kind of in line with your longer-term targets with the Q3 performance. I understand revenue growth was very good, which is part of it. But your full-year guidance, it does imply a pretty wide range with Q4 performance. So if you can maybe just talk about what underpins the low end of the range versus the high end of the range, or any specific considerations for us to be mindful of as we model this out. Then I guess, like more broadly, just understanding that there is some one-off costs this year, and there is some increased costs since you have become a public company.

Just trying to understand better if you believe we are getting to a point where your EBITDA should more closely align with the longer-term targets that you have laid out. Thank you.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Yeah. I think on the last comment, Gerald, we will see more of that in 2027, certainly. There is a lot going through the P&L this year, given everything that we have achieved, and also given some of the disruption that we have had. So in 2027, we will see a much cleaner set of numbers.

Gaurav Jain
Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, AIR Global

In terms of the guidance, Gerald, we are still in an uncertain macro, as you can imagine and read in the headlines. We have just tried to be prudent, just in case something were to happen. I do not think there is anything else apart from that. I mean, there is always some inventory movement that could happen at the end of the year as to how people look at next year. You are right that this year, the range is wider in Q4 than would normally be the case, and it is just so that we can handle anything, if anything adverse were to happen on a macro basis.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Yeah. I mean, given the fact that we are predominantly a B2B business, given the fact that still today there is large volumes coming out of the UAE, I think it is just we wanted to keep the wide range to sort of protect ourselves if something happens in the last six, seven weeks of the year that might stop us getting some shipments out, Gerald. So I would not read anything more than that into it.

Gerald Pascarelli
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Needham

Perfect. Thank you for the color on that. I will pass it on.

Stuart Brazier
CEO, AIR Global

Thank you.

Operator

This now concludes our question-and-answer session. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.