All right. Okay, so we're going to kick off with some lithium presentations now. So we've got lithium heavyweight Albemarle up next. Also, obviously, has bromine and catalyst businesses. Albemarle has been really focusing on what it can control in this more challenged lithium dynamic, optimizing OpEx and CapEx, and working to protect the balance sheet. We're very happy to welcome Kent Masters, CEO, for an update.
Okay, good afternoon. Mic working? Yep. It's kind of interesting how much a year makes. The uranium crowd was much bigger than the lithium crowd. It wasn't exactly what I was expecting. I'm going to talk through a just high-level Albemarle presentation and then hopefully build that just into an interesting Q&A session. I'm going to try not to take too much time just speaking and give Joel a chance to ask some questions and put questions of the audience. First, I want to thank Joel and BMO for hosting us. We'll start and talk a little bit about Albemarle. We'll slowly move through the forward-looking statement comments. I won't say anything about it, but that's there. That's you, Meredith. There we go. Just talk about the fundamentals of Albemarle. We're a global leading specialty chemicals company.
We've historically been specialty chemicals, and we're becoming a bit of a mining company, and that really is based off the resource part of our strategy has been integrated through the final products from a resource standpoint, so we're a little bit of a blend, but we still think of ourselves as a specialty chemical company. We serve about 2,000 customers over 70 countries, and our two core businesses share a lot of synergies between the two, primarily about resource and process chemistry, about converting those resources into molecules that are used for a variety of applications across different technologies, and the innovation that we use to take that technology and leverage those resources, and both of those businesses benefit from long-term secular growth across a number of trends, which I will talk about in just a moment.
Our strategic framework, we kind of try and stay at a high level, and I'll walk through a couple of these points around that. But our vision remains to lead the world in transforming essential resources into critical ingredients for modern living. And around that, the markets that we serve around that, particularly around mobility, everyone thinks about EVs, but it's much broader than EVs. Anything using from aerospace, using unique characteristics of any of our molecules around that, but much broader than just EVs, although frankly, that is what drives the conversation. Across energy, both grid storage generation, and then we have our catalyst business that plays into conventional energy. And our markets are actually aligned quite well with kind of outsized growth trends across most of our portfolios.
Kind of a low growth business for us is low double digits, and higher growth business is in the 20% for us. One of the biggest key advantages that we have in this business is our resources. We own and operate some of the largest scale and highest quality resources in the world in both our lithium and our bromine business. And those take us around the world. I talked a little bit early on about our process chemistry and the innovation and how we leverage that to turn those resources into molecules that are used for everything from drugs for synthesizing drugs for actually drugs, lithium drugs, molecules that are used to synthesize drugs. The lithium-ion battery technology is quite well known from that. We have bromine applications that apply across a number of things from well finishing to, and probably the biggest one is flame retardants for electronics.
And one of the bigger things we do, and it's kind of been a fundamental part of our value proposition, is how we try and stay as close as we can to our customers so we understand what that molecule is going to change to, what the trends are in the industry, what the growth rates are, and where we need to pivot. So we're kind of fundamental in the resource, but how we convert that molecule into what is the next stage of key product for us is why we believe we have to be fundamental in being very close to the end user, to the customer. So in many cases, we don't actually sell to the end user, but we have to still stay close to them.
Even though we're down at least one level in the value chain, it's become clear from our standpoint we have to be very close to that end user. So the current market conditions in the lithium space are very dynamic. Although, as I talked about growth rates, we still see the growth very strong. In 2024, the EV market was up about 25% year on year, driven strongly by China. The fourth quarter of the year was actually the record quarter ever in both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. So demand is still strong. I know there's a lot of discussion about the EV markets going away, but 25% year on year in the strongest quarter ever was for the last quarter just passed.
One of the interesting dynamics that happened. There's been a lot of discussion for years about lithium-ion technology and $100 per kilowatt hour as a cost for a battery. And that's essentially where you cross over with an internal combustion engine. We're at parity or slightly below that in China, and the rest of the world will follow. So that trend is driving some of the growth in it. And then grid storage, even though we're talking about lithium-ion batteries, grid storage grew at 50% last year. It's now 20% of the lithium market. Five years ago, we would have said that was low single digits, maybe 5% of the market. So that's a fundamental part and still growing because renewables are more and more a part of the energy mix. So we've talked. We get a lot of questions about our strategy and has it changed.
Our framework for our strategy has not changed. How we execute it is. We can talk about that we leverage this innovation. We built a capability for process chemistry. We were leveraging most of that for growth, either new plants or getting new molecules. Now we're using that to help us take cost out of the business. We're driving cost out of the business by just good old-fashioned cost cutting. We put a cost cutting program in place last year. We're executing well against that. We're using innovation to drive things like the way we map brine resources and get the best recovery that we can for the molecules that we have. The strategy is still the same. The competitive advantages we have are the same. We're using them in different ways because of the environment.
And we'll be able to pivot those same capabilities back to growth when the market is there for that. We were among the first in the industry to move to cost cutting. So it feels like we've been doing this for a really long time. It really was a little over a year when we've been taking cost out of the business, both from an operating perspective and from an overhead standpoint. So we've restructured our business. We ran a business unit model, and we've gone to a pure functional model to enable taking cost out of the business. We feel like that is going well. And it's actually given us a little bit of capability just to drive down very functionally some of the things I've been talking about, process chemistry, some of the operations. We're getting really granular in how we drive that.
We feel like we can take quite a bit of cost out of the business. We've given some things up around growth and some of them being quite as close to the customer as we want, but we're aware of that. One of the key things we talk about is we know we have to collaborate within the business so we don't go into our own silos. That's the risk in a functional organization. We feel pretty comfortable with where we are. It was necessary to take the cost out of the business. The next slide we're talking about, there's a couple of pieces that just wanted to highlight. We've been optimizing our global portfolio around conversion. We're having to adjust. Both our product mix has changed, and the dynamic around competition has changed around that. We've recently started up a new facility in China.
We've shut down one facility in China or put it in care and maintenance. It was one of our older lower-cost plants or higher-cost plants, and the market has shifted away from that product to more of a carbonate mix, so we were able to put that plant in care and maintenance and expand another facility with little to no capital to convert from hydroxide to carbonate, so we're making those changes to adjust to the market. We've been able to leverage our technology in the Salar de Atacama. We have a project that we call the Salar Yield Project. I get about 20% more recovery of the lithium that's in the salar for every gallon of brine that I pump, so I'm limited on how much brine I can pump, but I'm not limited on the lithium that comes out of that particular brine.
So a 20% increase in recovery is a significant benefit for us around that. So I talked about, I mentioned the cost program. So we put a program in place, and we targeted $300-$400 million of cost to take out of the business. We hit a run rate of about half of that at the end of 2024, which was slightly ahead of our target. We think we're on a good trend to hit those targets at the end of this year on a full run rate basis, maybe before that. That cost is split between kind of basically overhead cost, half of that. The other part is manufacturing. And we're on some of the projects that I talked about, like Meishan, ramping our plant for Salar Yield, La Negra, what we're doing at Kemerton are all part of driving cost from a plant standpoint.
The overhead piece is that restructuring that I talked about, which is mostly around a functional organization and just taking cost out of the business. We've also been pretty successful getting very focused on CapEx. A couple of years ago, we were on a growth profile and investing significantly on new projects. Took us a little time to unwind that as prices came down, but we're there now. We're targeting in 2025, $700-$800 million of CapEx across the business. That's about a two-thirds reduction from 2023 and about half of what we spent last year in 2024. The big difference is that we've taken out those long-term growth investments, and then we've really tightened down on the CapEx that we have for just our overall requirements for maintenance. There's still some growth in there, but it's incremental growth.
So we've got a growth rate now through 2027 of about 15%, and then we start running out of some of the capacity that we built. So we'll have, we're positioning ourselves to pivot to that growth if prices come back. And if not, we'll continue at this level of CapEx, and we'll be able to operate at this level and be free cash flow positive. So before I turn it over to Joel for questions, just wrap up. And so we're a global leader with durable competitive advantages, and we think those advantages that I talked about really get us through the peaks and the bottom of the cycle.
We've got great secular growth trends that support our business, and we've been executing very well against the programs we've put in place, whether those were the growth programs with new capital or taking cost out of the business so we can manage through and be competitive at the bottom of the cycle. So I'm going to stop there. Join Joel and see what you have.
Okay, please submit your question on the app. I've got one in already. I'll ask, but please submit more. Let's talk about the market a little bit. I think what's been interesting in the lithium market is LC prices stayed around $10,000 a ton plus or minus for half a year. It's been way more volatile than the last bunch of years. What is needed, do you think, to kick this market up $1,000, $2,000 a ton, maybe more and beyond?
What do we need?
Yeah, I think, look, we probably need a little bit of time. We need some consolidation in the space, and I think there's been a lot of investments put in, and I view that those are going to come on and operate immediately. And we have had some mines come on in Africa that have come on faster than most people thought, but I think time will tell. You high-grade a mine when you first come on, and you may get a little fork about what cost you think is. I just think the cost is not quite as good as people think it is. There's a supply-demand balance that's a little upside down from our standpoint at the moment. There's a little extra supply. Market's growing about 20%. Time will take care of that. So we're bringing capacity on.
You just need to get a little bit more balance, and I think when prices are as low as they are, those projects are going to come off, and there's going to be a time when that inverts, and it's just, I can't tell you when that's going to be, but I mean, price is where they are. It has to happen.
Do you think that grid storage? I hear a lot, the hype over grid storage is getting better the last months, this conference. Do you think that could be the kicker? Maybe it's next year, some extra demand there. It's not just an EV story. It's grid storage too, and that helps get maybe some offline, the prices go up, some offline supply comes back on, but then we get into a bit of a price run. Is that the story here? Is that the playbook?
You know, I don't know. We never anticipated grid storage being as big of a deal. So I think we've moved down the experience curve with lithium-ion technology. It's more competitive than a number of the alternatives now. So I think that crossover is kind of moved on. So grid storage, there's going to be a lot of lithium technology there. It's kind of covered some of the softness from an EV standpoint. So softness, still growing at 20%, but we were at 30%. So grid storage has covered some of that. It's going to become a bigger part of it. There'll be a better mix in the portfolio, but I still think it's going to be mostly about EVs.
So I got a question on that from the app. So it's on that, on grid storage.
So with no investment in growth and with static energy storage booming in China further to sell cost reduction, how will Albemarle be able to adapt to surging demand?
Okay, so I'm sure I followed all that, but if it's all right.
I think it's just a follow-up on if you really get surge in demand in grid storage, how will you adapt to that?
Yeah, I don't think grid storage is going to drive everything. It's going to be a. It's nice to have another application, right, that is bigger and significant. There's still a lot of other applications for lithium molecules technology, but they just get overwhelmed by EVs. So grid storage is helping, and it's becoming another significant pillar to that. But I think you're going to be in cycles.
I think we were always saying we're going to have higher lows and lower highs as this industry matures, and that's happening. It's just not happening as fast. The lows are still pretty low, and the high was, I don't know what the next high will be, but I think we're going to cycle through that. The industry has to mature, and you have to respond to that. You have to be able to manage to the bottom of the cycle, and
I mean, something that we've seen Albemarle do is rethink, you talk about all the great things you've done on the cost, OpEx side, and structuring that, and you've also had to look at CapEx, like you said, and you've had to slow down some stuff, close some stuff in conversion in Kemerton, and slow down some spending there.
Talk about maybe now it seems like all your conversions now are basically going to be mostly in China. It was a different strategy you were thinking a few years ago. Other people in the industry think, no, we need to cut China out of the market. Sorry, we need to diversify conversion outside of China and get new Western conversion. There's sort of a debate going on, right? I mean, you've taken your position now to sort of dial back your Western conversion. What do you think about that debate?
I think the dialing back is an economic reality. I still think you need to have a, we need a Western supply chain for this. It's a very important technology. It's EVs, but there are a lot of military applications, a lot of applications along a lot of different markets, and it's becoming more prolific.
And I believe we need Western supply chains. And I don't think Western governments are going to be happy relying on China for that supply chain. So I think that has to happen and will happen over time. But the economic reality is given what prices are today, I can't afford to do conversion, which is what we outside of China. That's why we pull back.
And then obviously in China, like there's prices there that seem too low when we think about what real true costs are and whether it's CATL. And I'm going to ask you to talk about certain companies. I'm just going to say companies, but it seems like what has to happen there? Like it seems like it's a tough market when maybe it's not so rational. So what has to happen to get more rational, if that makes any sense?
Or how do you play in a market that's not so rational?
Yeah, well, I think we want to do. We do things like we are doing. So we've been. We run auctions, right? So we try and break kind of certain dynamics in a market. The Chinese market operates on a spot market for the most part. There's a lot of business that's not really from the Chinese market, but gets transacted in China. We do almost all of that on contracts. So longer-term contracts, floors and ceilings. It's interesting to hear the Iranian presentation talking about floors and ceilings. So we tend to do contracts like that. It actually transacts in China, but it's for Western suppliers. And that's kind of the market is bifurcated in that respect. Now they index off the same price. There's no real reason for that. Ultimately, that's got to change.
I think countries, companies will ascribe value to having a Western supply chain and not being subject to China, and that's where you'll get the bifurcation,
So a lot of questions from people about DLE, Exxon, oil companies, all these things, so what's your view on kind of DLE? That is a tough nut to crack. We all know that. What's your views on that? How will that change the market or not?
DLE is a variety of technologies. Everybody talks about it like it's one, but it is a variety of technologies. We've invested in it. We've done quite a bit of work, have been doing work for some time. We don't talk too much about it, but we have DLE application that works very well in the Smackover brines.
And we're going to. We're leveraging that to the Salar de Atacama because we can again, without pumping more, we can get more lithium out of that particular resource. That's one of the lowest costs. I think the lowest cost resource in the world. So that's an advantage for us. Will we go after other brines using DLE technology? I'm not sure. It's a long investment process to develop a brine resource. Usually they're remote. The technology has to be customized for a brine. So that's one of the things about DLE. Regardless of what technology you use, almost every brine has different contaminants and different materials in it, and you have to customize for that particular brine. And you need a lot of fresh water. So that, and a lot of times these salars are not where there's a lot of fresh water. So there's complications. It's not insurmountable.
It's well-known technology, whether it's adsorption or solvent exchange. It's known technology. It just needs to be more development, more research. And you need R&D-minded companies doing that kind of work. And so we've been one of the bigger companies in the space. We're a pretty small company compared to ExxonMobil. So I think as you get big companies with R&D focus involved in it more, it will move forward. But there's not a quick solution for it, and it's not, you can't solve one thing and make it work everywhere. Totally.
Okay, so Albemarle, you gave some interesting guidance that you should be on the path to break even for cash flow as the year kind of progresses later in the year.
If lithium prices kind of stay where they are, you look forward like next year, thinking about distributions from maybe Greenbushes would be a bit higher next year once you're done CGP3, but maybe some of your contracts change a little bit next year with the pricing is. How do you think about leverage free cash flow for next year? I know we're talking about this year and next year, but just think about as things progress in a kind of flat environment, what is it like next year with all the moving parts?
Right, so we made, after our earnings call, we had a little joke because we just told you 2025, and the first question was about 2026. Right, but I guess.
Or 2027.
Yeah, that's how that works. Look, I think we can get the free cash flow.
We say we have line of sight to free cash flow for this year. So there or thereabouts is what that means to me. That's what that means. And we have to manage that. So it'll be a little different next year. So we'll have a little more cash from Greenbushes. We won't be making as much investment if the market doesn't move at all. But things will move around. Our contracts will renegotiate. Some will extend some. Our contracts have been around like this for a long time. They're not stuck in one place. They always move a little bit, but I think our floors will be there for us. We like the contracting strategy. I think our customers like it. They don't like the floors now, but they love the ceilings when the price was $80 and we were selling at a much lower price.
They don't remember that, but we have to remind them, but from our standpoint, we have to manage through that, and I think we'll do that in 2026. We have to be at a place. We say internally, we have to compete through the bottom of the cycle and whatever that means, and we've proven that we can adjust pretty quickly, and if we have to do more, we will, and
we think about beyond the next couple of years, so you've got some more production coming out of Chile. You've got CGP3 and expansion of Greenbushes. You've got some conversion increases in China. After that, with some of the CapEx cuts you've done and Kings Mountain sort of put on the shelf a bit, I guess you get into kind of a lower growth period. How do you think about that?
What would make you give you confidence to maybe go back and look at some of those projects?
Yeah, so next leg of projects. Yeah, so we have pretty good growth through 2027, probably about 15% growth through 2027. And then it comes off a little bit. There's still growth. So it's probably upper single digits, which is not still growth. And we do that with smaller, those incremental investments, small projects and just kind of grinding out, getting extra capacity from that. The market moves, we can pivot to make those investments to get back to those growth rates. So we're getting Kings Mountain, a mine in North Carolina that would be the first hard rock mine in the U.S. from a lithium standpoint. And we've done a lot of the work. We're in the permitting process.
We're kind of getting it ready to go so we could pull that trigger. We haven't pulled it. We'd want to see prices at a different level or we'd have to see something different in the market before we pull the trigger, but we're getting everything ready to go.
So you had a grant for Kings Mountain. I don't think you've received the funds for that, right? Is that correct?
We had a grant for Kings Mountain, and there's a couple of different ones that apply to different pieces.
So you haven't received it all?
We've gotten some from parts of it.
Because I know some reviews going on. Is there some concern that I know it's not a big amount of money, but is there some concerns that some of those grants may now be put on hold?
No, I think, I mean, all of ours are milestone-based.
So if we do certain things, we get the money. So if they get put on hold, we won't get the money, but we won't. There's no case where we spend the money and then don't get it. So we don't think they'll be pulled back because we've been through that review process already. And for everything they're talking about, there's a small amount that might be a concern, but it's very small and not relevant to the project.
So I had a question. So you called yourself a specialty chemical company transitioning to a mining company. Do you still view yourself as a specialty chemical company? Return metrics are very different in those industries, and that viewpoint may change capital allocation solutions. How do CapEx decisions change if you're a miner versus a chemical company?
Yeah, so I didn't say we were a specialty chemical moving to mining.
I said we're a specialty chemical company involved in mining. We're trying to walk that line between the two, right? We think the expertise that we bring from a chemical standpoint is very interesting. Now we're doing kind of resource. No one thought we were a mining company when it was just a, when it was only brines and Jordan and Magnolia and the Salar de Atacama, but all of a sudden with hard rock, we're a mining company. We're trying to own the resource, kind of fundamentally own the resource, and then control that supply chain all the way to the customer. In this space, that means you have to be part specialty chemical and part mining. It is a challenge because they are quite different. Cultures are different. Investment profiles are different. That's what we're trying to manage.
Kent, we have a minute left. What do you think is most misunderstood about Albemarle as a company, as an investment opportunity?
What's most misunderstood?
Yea h, I mean, yes.
Yeah, well, maybe that point that we just talked about. So we're trying to be, so we're not a chemical company being thrown into mining space or pivoting from one to the other. We're trying to manage both. And I think we've, and it takes a unique culture to do that. You have to be able to pivot to those mining type projects with long lead times and then still be able to do the productivity element. And we're trying to leverage that capability from one to the other and back, right?
So the mentality about doing life of mine plans, normally we wouldn't think of that type of 30-year planning period from a chemical company, but that's the culture change that we're having to drive in the organization. And it's probably the biggest challenge that we have.
Thanks a lot. Appreciate your time. Thank you.