All right, we'll go ahead and get started. First, I wanted to say thank you to Tom Wilson, CEO of Allstate, for being with us. And we're going to start out with some opening remarks, and then we'll dive into a little Q&A.
Great. Good morning. We'll set some context before Alex and I jump in. So first, we appreciate you taking the time to come see why Allstate is such a great investment. Let me start on slide one, which is our Surgeon General warning. Remember, we're using all kinds of forward-looking statements, non-GAAP. Take our remarks in context to everything else we do, whether it's a 10-K or a 10-Q, or earnings stuff, so make sure you look at everything out there. Let me start with our strategy, which the two ovals on the left show the components of our customer-focused strategy. One, increase personal property liability market share, and second, expand the protection we provide to customers. The bullets on the right show what our current strategic priorities are.
Obviously, improving auto insurance profitability is our top priority, and we have a comprehensive set of actions that are underway that are showing progress. Increasing property liability market share through Transformative Growth, when margins are improved, will generate increased shareholder value after that. And then, at the same time, we are pursuing the sale of our health and benefits businesses, which is an exceptional benefits platform that follows the successful integration of what was Allstate's workplace business, with two businesses we got from when we bought National General. We think a transaction will be completed in sometime in 2024. Let's go to slide three to focus on profitability. This is property liability, so it's auto, home, everything else, and talk about our actions to get a mid-90s combined ratio.
In the chart on the left, you can see that Allstate has a strong track record of achieving strong returns on all property liability lines, and that's averaged about mid-90s before the pandemic. The pandemic then, of course, created a sharp increase in auto claim severities and eroded profits, not just for us, but for the entire industry. In addition, this year, severe weather has driven elevated catastrophe losses, which you can see in the light blue on this chart, which contributed to the underwriting losses. On the right, we show the progress on our comprehensive auto profit improvement plan. First, is increasing rates. The Allstate brand has implemented over 27% of rate increases since 2022, including 10.4% through October of this year.
National General, at the same time, increased rates about 10% in 2022, and an additional 9.9% through October of this year. We'll continue to pursue rate increases to restore auto insurance margins back to target levels, and I'm sure Alex will have a few questions about that. Second, reducing operating expenses not only supports profit improvement, but we really started it three or four years ago as part of Transformative Growth, which I'll talk about in a minute. So it was a good idea that we moved it early. We did it to become lowest- cost. It's clearly helping us improve our profitability at this point. Third, reducing exposure in states and segments where we're not making money.
Fourth, making sure we enhance our claim practices in a high- inflation and an increasingly litigious environment. So we go to slide four. It’ll show the progress on just the auto insurance piece of it. So the chart on the left shows the progress in the underlying combined ratio with higher average premiums and expense reduction, sequentially improving the third quarter results to 100.5. There’s a bunch of adjustments in here for interquarter and intra-year reserve adjustments. We put this out here to give you a sense for it. Here’s when you if you do apples to apples, what it looks like over time. And the chart on the right shows how our comprehensive actions have resulted in a higher proportion of the portfolio progressing towards achieving our target profitability.
If you exclude three large states, California, New York, and New Jersey, which generated 45% of Allstate's underwriting loss in 2022, you can see that the underlying combined ratio for auto insurance is 97.2. So our processes work, we just got to get them to work in those three states. Premiums from states with an underlying combined ratio below 100 improved to about 59% of the total portfolio in the third quarter, and you can see that in the bottom two bars on the chart on the right. If we go to slide eight, you can talk about our industry-leading homeowners business. So we have a fully integrated business model we've built over a long time that gives us a competitive advantage in homeowners.
The left chart shows how our approach has consistently generated industry-leading underwriting margins, outperforming the industry by 12 points, from 2013 to 2022. During that same period, we generated average annual underwriting income of about $900 billion, and you can see that on the bottom of that chart. The table on the right highlights the impact of elevated catastrophe losses in 2023, which resulted in a 29-point increase in the combined ratio versus the prior year. We continue to implement actions to earn attractive returns on this risk over time, with net written premiums increasing 11.9% from the prior year, primarily driven by higher average premium per policy. We remain highly confident in our ability to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the homeowners' business.
Moving to slide six, let's discuss Transformative Growth. This is a multi-year initiative, which is about becoming the lowest- cost insurer. So despite lower profits, we continue to invest in this opportunity so that we're positioned to grow when margins are restored. So we have new, affordable, simple protection solutions, which will have a differentiated customer experience. Customers will have access to that high quality, low-cost protection through a broad distribution system that includes Allstate agents, independent agents, and directly from company call centers and over the web. We're now live in a few markets with auto insurance and renters insurance on this new tech platform, and we like what we see. With each of the five, there's five components of Transformative Growth.
Each are in a kind of a different place, but basically, we're moving from phase three to phase four. Slide seven shows Allstate's progress on expanding customer access as part of that effort. So, we're the only carrier that has really significant presence in the three primary ways in which you distribute personal lines, so that's exclusive agents, independent agents, and directly through the company. The exclusive agent channel, of course, represents the majority of Allstate's U.S. personal lines premium at about $32 billion, and that's roughly a 22% share of that specific piece of the market. Our exclusive agents continue to be a strategic asset, and they're offering personalized local advice to customers in what is a $145 billion opportunity.
And while when you look at the Allstate exclusive agent auto new business, it's down by 5% in total. That's applications per agency. When you exclude the three profit-challenged states, California, New York, and New Jersey, where we've severely restricted new business, we're down over 75% in new business in those states. That's increased. Productivity has increased 13.4%. So the strategy is working to improve customer value. Bundling at the point of sale is over 75%. It's bundling home and auto. And agent productivity for top-performing agents has also improved. The acquisition of National General in 2021 created growth prospects through independent agents.
What we're doing is leveraging Allstate's expertise in standard auto and homeowners, and we call that Custom 360, and we're now live in 15 states. So National General is primarily a non-standard carrier. We're adding standard products to it, and we'll be in every state by the end of next year. We've improved our capabilities in the direct channel to provide another source of organic growth under the Allstate brand with differentiated pricing. It's cheaper to buy an Allstate product through direct than it is through agents. Volumes are down significantly since last year, since that was the fastest and easiest way for us to reduce new business. Let's transition to slide eight to discuss our protection services businesses.
This is the bottom oval, which offers customers a circle of protection through a wide range of protection products, whether that's protection plans, identity protection, roadside, car warranties, telematics. Our revenues in those businesses are over $2 billion through nine months. So obviously, that's not a full- year number. That's up 8.3% compared to the prior year. It's mainly driven by protection plans, which is up 18%, and that reflects both, expanding the product offering and international growth. By leveraging the Allstate brand and expanded products, protection services revenue has grown at a compound rate of over 22% since 2016. And adjusted net income was roughly $500 million over that same timeframe. So we're going to continue to invest in these high-growth businesses. Let's shift to investments.
We proactively repositioned our investment portfolio based on changes in the economic environment and our enterprise risk and return considerations. We're not necessarily a buy and hold insurer. The chart on the left shows changes we made in the duration of our bond portfolio in comparison to interest rates. So in late 2021, we reduced our duration to roughly three years by early 2022, and that was before interest rates increased, so we avoided those losses. Duration was then increased last year and throughout this year with higher yields, enabling us to capture increased investment income.
As you can see on the right, you can see that come through on the right, particularly when you look at the market-based income line there, which is $567 million, which is $165 million over the prior year quarter. That's reflecting longer duration, high yields. We reduced our public equity holdings as well. So let me end where we started, which is Allstate, where get auto profitability back to target levels, position ourselves for growth after that, make sure we're proactive in thinking about our investments from a risk and return standpoint, and then sell our health and benefits business. So with that, Alex, I'm all yours.
All right. So as you guessed, I, I want to jump right on into auto and in particular-
Yeah, I'm shocked.
Severity. So maybe just give us the update on what are the latest trends you're seeing there, you know, particularly as we think about some of the biggest pressure points around things like auto repair costs and some of the BI. You know, what's the latest view, and are you seeing any signs of stabilization and a trend down?
So just to reset history, so for... I don't know if everybody follows this as much as we do here. We all think everybody pays as much attention to us as we do. Of course, claim costs went way up after the pandemic. Used car prices were up 60%. Cost to repair cars went way up because you couldn't get anybody to fix them. The parts went up because the OEs took advantage of their pricing power to raise prices. And so as a result of that, claim costs went way up. They started to come down. As you saw, in the third quarter, we make an estimate of what we think the increase is going to be for a full- year.
And so, for the first two quarters, we thought it was going to be 11% for this year, for 2023. At the end of the third quarter, we said, "We think it's going to be 9%." And that's really due to the fact that the cost to replace cars has come way down. So used car prices have come down. Somebody gets in an accident, we total their car, we have to pay them whatever the market value is. So as the market value comes down, those loss costs actually come down. You're not seeing as much decline in the other. So Bodily Injury continues to be above general inflation. The cost to repair are still above general inflation. Litigation costs are still relatively high. So, the...
We factored that all in, which is why we think we're going to continue to increase prices next year.
You know, when I look at the progression of pricing, we did see it come down a little bit this year compared to 2022. I think just the amount of rate that you're taking. How much of that really is some of these bigger states that you've got a you know, tougher regulatory process that you're working through, as opposed to, you know, strategically slowing down more recently, the amount of rate?
So of course, we have to go to regulators, and every state's different, of course, but some states are easier than others. Some, you just file it and off you go. Other ones, you have a long, drawn-out process to increase your prices. So as you look over, so the 27% we got, basically, regulators understand it. They know we need to raise prices because they can look at our costs and see we're paying out more than we're taking in. And so we've been able to get pretty good price increases through just about every state, except California, New York, and New Jersey. And so we feel good about where we've gotten there.
So when you see the price come down a little bit, the average increase, it's because in many of those places, we've achieved what we think we need to. Now we're not all the way there, and you have to earn more of the premium in. It'll take a while, but you can see it, right? Like, you can see it coming. In California, New York, and New Jersey, California, we need 30%+ increase in pricing. When you look at the amount of money we, we have, we write in that state, that's a big number. Same thing as New Jersey is about the same. New York's maybe 60% of that, so probably in the 18% range.
And so those are high priority stuff where you'll note on our last call, we said, "If we don't get price increases this year or approved this year in those states, we're going to move from just not taking on new business to having to say goodbye to some existing customers." We don't want to do that. I think the regulators would prefer we not do that. We're not threatening anybody. We're just saying, like, we can't afford to lose, you know, that much money in those three states. So when you look forward, next year, either we'll be successful, and we'll get the kind of rate increases we need to get us back to the margins we want, or we're going to get smaller in those states. Either way, it should improve auto insurance profitability.
Understood. Can you talk a bit about how, you know, that process is going with, you know, California in particular? I mean, it's, you know, we're reasonably close to the end of the year. You kind of mentioned that you set that line in the sand. I mean, is it progressing in a, you know, acceptable way?
Yeah, I mean, so you know, California, if you have to put yourself in the mindset of a regulator. It's not an easy thing, 'cause if you have companies, you have to allow. By law, you're required to let them make money and let them increase their prices. On the other hand, if you're a politician, it's not the most favorable thing you can do for your career-
Sure
... to increase prices. So they're trying to walk through that. We have good conversations with them. We're in active conversations with California. Our teams, you know, they were talking to them last week. I mean, we're from our standpoint, it's one of the highest priority things we got going before the end of the year. So we're all over it, and we'll see how we do.
All right. I guess taking this all together, as we think through the pricing, still a strong amount of price coming through and, you know, potentially more, I guess, either outcome with, you know, some of these states that you haven't had it in yet. Is the spread, you know, potentially widening more significantly between that price and the severity, which has been naggingly high? I think this last year, you sort of said they were more par. And so there is, I think, some expense ratio benefit, but, you know, not quite as much on the loss ratio. Is that going to be at a point where in 2024, it is more of a conversation about, you know, how, how big that spread is, as opposed to if it's still more, you know, in lockstep?
How big? Make sure I get-
The spread between pricing and the loss- cost trend. This last year, they were closer to even, right? You know, how, how do you expect that to progress?
Okay. Yeah, I got it. So, if your costs are going up faster than your premiums, you're going to lose more money in the future. That's the situation we had after the pandemic kind of started unwinding. Claim costs going way up, premiums lagging behind, oops, there goes your underwriting profit. Then what we've done is drive that premium increase up, and I think I said earlier this year, we're kind of holding serve.
Mm.
Like, let's just do it. Let's say you had a make it up 10% increase in premiums and 10% increase in costs, then your margins are going to stay the same, your combined ratio will. If you can get 15% in premiums and only 10% in loss costs, then you pick that back.
Yep.
You see that happening in a bunch of these other states. So that one slide where I showed, you know, so like 56% of the premiums now come through in places where that line is crossed. It hasn't crossed in the big states.
Mm-hmm.
It's hard to tell what the. And I know everyone wants to know, like, what are loss costs going to be next year? You can't really predict, right? Like, I don't know what people are going to charge to fix cars, and I don't know what's going to happen to used car prices. But what I do know is that the way we price is, if those costs keep going up, we're going to keep raising prices. We've proven ourselves to be able to do it. So I think we feel confident that auto insurance profitability will improve next year. How much will be dependent on what happens to those lines.
Understood. Okay. Maybe shifting over to homeowners for a minute. You know, I think the story of this year was all of these smaller catastrophe events that really added up to large amounts in aggregate. How are you managing those risks and trying to navigate the you know, the higher cost reinsurance markets?
So, yeah, so the first three quarters of this year are crazy high in terms of catastrophes. Now, you could say, "Well, is that permanent? Like, are we now in... Is this, you know, global warming is here, this is the reality?" We don't think that's the case. We think it's when you look at the statistical anomalies and the, and the math, the weather, and all kind of stuff, certainly there are more severe storms, for sure. That's been going on for a while. We think that's going to continue to go on. But we think, therefore, we can-- given our, the way we've got our business set up, it's a great place we can make money. And so, we do try to mitigate those catastrophe losses by using reinsurance.
So we're probably the biggest buyer of personal lines insurer in the world, so we know the markets well. The market's tightened up a little bit in part because of losses last year, in part because of the U.S. dollar really whacked some of the reinsurers on their premiums. And that said, we don't see any. Like, there's plenty of capacity for us to do what we want to do, so we're growing that business. You saw we grew that business not much, like, 0.8-0.9 of a point last year, but that's because we got everything else restricted.
We do think with National General, we'll be able to expand, particularly in the lower cap markets, through independent agents and give ourselves a better profile of risk, which will make it an even more attractive business. So we're all in on homeowners. We think it's a great business. We're one of the only people making money on it, so we intend to keep pushing it.
Maybe one specifically on Florida and, you know, related to homeowners. Can you talk about some of the legislative changes that were made, and are you seeing any signs that some of that is, you know, helping with the loss- cost trends in that state specifically?
So the legislative changes were primarily around some litigation stuff, which is a good idea. They had way too many lawsuits. The math was like, you know, there's 10% of the homes and 80% of the lawsuits or something like that in Florida. So it was a good thing to fix it. That said, it's not going to fix Florida, and we never thought it would. We thought it was a good thing to do. We're going to keep getting smaller in Florida until such time as you can get an adequate return. And so we're a fraction of what we used to be. Our market share used to be, I don't know, 12% maybe. We're less than 3% today, and we'll get smaller.
Yep, understood. Next, I wanted to move on to the group benefits business. You know, the potential for a sale there, I'm sure you only want to say so much about that, but maybe you could talk about, you know, if you're successful, you know, what are the potential uses of proceeds and priorities there?
Well, let me go up a little bit because some people were like, "Why are you selling it?" And so-
Sure
... I think it's helpful to tell you the story there. So we were in the voluntary benefits business since 1999, when I was at Allstate Financial, we bought American Heritage Life. Good business, 4 million people, sells at the work site when you're enrolling for your benefits, disability insurance, life insurance, and we liked it. We buy National General. We buy National General really to get the independent agent business. Like, we were not successful there, but with it came these two other businesses. They happened to be a group health business and an individual health business. And so when we bought it, we said, "Well, you know, we could like..." You know, you're doing the acquisition math, and you say, "Well, we could just sell them, and that'll offset the cost." And we said, "Well, you know what?
Before we do that, let's see if we can put them together with our voluntary benefits business and see if we can create a really strong platform." We did it. We were successful. We really like what we got. Business makes $250 million a year. It's got good growth potential. The group health business is, is a good business, focused on small businesses. But then we said: Okay, well, how do we now, where do we take it from here? And we said, "Well, to take it from here, we need a bigger, we need a bigger presence in group health, and we have, we go to small companies. We need to go to big companies." Because we're selling benefits businesses to Walmart and other big companies, so we need a better group business.
We also need a better medical management system, because we're renting other people's, and we could probably broaden our distribution. We said, "Well, we could make that. I mean, we're making $250 million a year. We could invest in it." And I said, "Well, you know, these capabilities exist in the world, and we could rent them from somebody," but we're like, "Eh, we looked at that, we don't really think we could." So we said, "You know what? We should just sell this business, capture the benefit we got, let somebody else harvest the great growth potential here, and it'll be better for our shareholders." It was hard. You know, I mean, this is low capital, high growth business.
Yeah.
Like, I'm looking for return- on- capital these days. You know, but that said, it was the right thing to do for shareholders. So we sold it, or we're going to sell it. There's a lot of appetite for it, so I'm confident we... And the reason we announced it now was we were confident that it would be, it's saleable, so it's not like you're going to have a failed sale. And secondly, when you look at the cycle of getting new customers, we wanted to get that off the table because right now is enrollment time, and then you get into sort of like spring, summer, companies are deciding: Who do I want to do my group benefits with? So we wanted to get that off the table.
When we look at the amount of money we'll get out of it, you know, we think we have plenty of growth opportunities. So Transformative Growth, which doesn't get much focus right now because everyone's focused on auto profitability-
Sure.
will drive real organic growth, and the returns in that business are every bit as good as the returns in the workplace business. So we feel good that we got great growth opportunities. If we have extra money, then we'll do what we always do, which is give people back. When you look at our math, I don't know if this—I don't think this is through 2023, but if you look at us in terms of cash return, cash return being dividends, share buybacks, relative to everybody, not just financials, we're in the top 10%. So we've proven and have a philosophy that if we don't have a good use for the money, we give it back to shareholders. If we do, we keep it and deploy it on their behalf.
Yep, understood. So, while we're on capital, I did want to ask you about just how you all are currently thinking through, you know, the capital in your business today. You know, how much you really feel like you need just steady state, and then, you know, the capacity you have to execute on the Transformative Growth? I mean, what are the right metrics for us to think about? Where do they need to be?
Yeah, I think that, you know, we have enough capital. We got plenty of money, like, I'm not worried about it. We use a really sophisticated way in which we do it, and which has served us pretty well. And that to the point of where when we're looking at our investment portfolio, we're like: How much capital are we allocating to the investment portfolio? And so we dialed our capital down in the investment portfolio last year when we took our equity ownership down. In part, we didn't think it was a good risk return in the equity market. We didn't think it was terrible, but we're like, eh. Like, if you look at the upside, downside, we'd rather be in bonds.
Yep.
That reduced our capital in total. So that model is really interactive and looks on an enterprise-wide basis. So when people take metrics like Premium to Surplus ratio and say, "Oh, that's the way you should measure capital," we're more sophisticated than that.
Sure.
I think we got caught in this thing of where people were feeling like Premium to Surplus, and we, we didn't maybe do as good enough a job explaining how we get there, and people thought, "Oh, well, that's not the right number." The Premium to Surplus doesn't include a whole bunch of stuff, like including the surplus we don't have in AIC. So it's like, it just wasn't even a complete number. So we have plenty of money. We use those models in a very sophisticated way to look at things like reinsurance and decide... So we were talking earlier this year about, you know, maybe we're going to do some more reinsurance. We've been, I think, in the amongst the leaders, I won't say cutting edge, in trying to use reinsurance.
So we were talking about some other reinsurance stuff because we're always looking for more capital, 'cause if we can source reinsurance capital cheaper than our shareholders want to return it, it's good for our shareholders. And that got convoluted with the Premium to Surplus thing, and people thought: "Oh, you need to do the reinsurance, so you have enough money." It had nothing to do with it. Really, it was... I mean, maybe it had. You're always thinking about capital, so nothing to do with it, it's too strong a word, but, you know, we were just sort of like, like, if, if it's a good trade, we'll do it. If it's not a good trade, we won't do it.
As it turns out, it's more complicated than the people who were pitching it, so that we can do it at this rate, than they thought, and so we might not end up doing it. But it's just another. It's just one of those things we're looking at. I think it got blown out of proportion as a result of the focus on capital.
Understood. I want to circle back on Transformative Growth. You know, I guess I'd be interested in if you have an update there, and in particular, if there is anything incremental you're considering to advance the strategy?
So Transformative Growth was a shift in strategy in the property liability business from differentiated premium product, not quite premium price, but above average price, which worked really well for us. And so we earned really high returns in that business, and but we weren't growing. And so we said, you know what? We thought differentiation would help us grow. We created New Car Replacement, declining deductible, all these things people have copied. That said, we weren't growing. So we said: You know what? If we want to grow, we got to be lower price, and we just got to drive costs down. So the biggest part of Transformative Growth was cut a bunch of costs, cut out $4.5 billion of cost, so you can bring your price down.
Lower price going to lead to higher growth. Now, you can't take out that much cost. Just, it's not like we were sitting around and had $4.5 billion that was, like, wasted money. You got to really reengineer your entire business process. So we had to change the way we pay our agents. We had to change where we process our work around the world. We had to get rid of a bunch of technology. We had to clean up a whole bunch of stuff. So at the same time, we started to redo the entire business model. And we've made really great progress on it. And I would say at this point, what we've done is we've validated the underlying assumptions.
We've yet to validate those underlying assumptions in the markets with market growth, but we're going to start that next year. So let me tell you the underlying assumptions. One, will lower price sell and will it be economic? Yep, we did it. We did it right before auto costs went way up. So if you look at our profitability, we cut prices about 2% right before claim costs zipped up. That was intentional on our part because we were taking costs down. And so we saw that. We saw that we could get agents to sell at more business and at a lower cost. We saw we could expand in an independent agent business. We saw we could sell direct at a cheaper price. We knew we could build the technology.
Like, we didn't know if we could build this new tech platform. Like, we set off to do it, but, like, it's one thing to talk about it, it's another thing to have to, you know-
Sure
... push the button for it to work. So all the underlying assumptions, we think we've proven out. What we haven't done is then take those into the market and say, "Okay, let's go to this state. Let's put the whole ball of wax in there. Let's drive increased marketing in there. Let's..." Because the lower cost should help us drive increased marketing, and how much growth will that drew? The reason we haven't done that is because the markets are complete turmoil, and we weren't making enough money. So if we were making enough money, maybe we would've gone in. But still, you got a bunch of people changing prices. GEICO is raising prices, Progressive is raising prices, State Farm is not raising prices. So to know whether you're really lowest- cost is difficult-
Sure
... when the prices are moving around. So we believe in a bunch of states now, given where we are in profitability, given where everybody else is in the profitability, we're going to be able to go into some states next year and say, "Okay, how do we really make this work so we increase market share?" When we do that, that will lead to not just more profit, that should lead to a revaluation of the multiple, which is a second kick on the
Yep
... value.
I'm jumping around a little bit. I wanted to come back to reserves for a moment. You know, we saw a little volatility, as we did for a lot of industry participants going back about a year or so. But, you know, that seems to have, you know, found some stabilization. And, you know, I think when we look at the 2022 and 2023 accident years, it does appear maybe there is some reserving philosophy shift that maybe occurred. And I'd just be interested in, you know, your views on the confidence of the reserves at this point. And, you know, really, how, you know, what you're seeing in loss- cost trend is, you know, also maybe making its way into helping the balance sheet strengthen.
So, a couple of key messages. One, we think our reserves are appropriately established in total, which is what you would expect and what I sign on a document on every quarter. Of course, 2022 wasn't our finest year in reserves, and that's because we had a dramatic increase in inflation that hadn't gone through. So we didn't really change our philosophy, even haven't changed the metrics. We're using some different ways to look at it in a high- inflation environment. But the basic premises on which you do reserves is still the same.
Our-- the way we do it, apparently, is a little more responsive than the way other people did it, because we made changes in 2022, and everyone said: "You guys are stupid, and you don't know what you're doing, and we've lost confidence in you." Now, everybody's done it this year, and they're like: "Oh, well, that just comes with the territory." You know, I would like to have their, their reaction rather than ours, but whatever. Like, you know, we, we didn't get it right, and so we had to fix it. We're feeling good about where we're at in reserves. Now, they move around a lot, like, so you do it in total. So sometimes it's by coverage, sometimes it's by state, sometimes it's by year. So when you look at...
You do get it by year when we do the disclosures, so you can see, you know, in the 10-K and stuff like that, which year it's spread out to, so that you can understand exactly how much money did you really make in that year. When we started to move it around a little bit between the quarters, and that's where we had that one chart we tried to show you. Okay, like, we'll show you how we're moving it around in between the years so that you can have some clarity on it. So it's complicated. We do it right. We try to give you what we can to help you see what we believe to be true, so you can make a more informed adjustment. But I'm comfortable with our reserves.
Got it. All right, well, we're at time, so thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you, Alex.