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Goldman Sachs 2024 U.S. Financial Services Conference

Dec 10, 2024

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

Awesome. So I think we're right about on time, so might as well get started.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thanks, Tom, for being here. It's Tom Wilson, Chairman and CEO of Allstate. So just, I think maybe to kick it off, I think we could just go right into some background on where the business stands today and kinda key pieces of the Allstate strategy going forward.

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

Okay. I'm gonna show you some slides, and then we'll jump into it. Is that all right?

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yep.

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

First, thank you for taking time to figure out why Allstate's a good investment and why you should lean into us. You know that, I'm gonna use some – this is our Surgeon General's warning up there – to let you know that, we're gonna use a bunch of non-GAAP-related stuff. So use everything we have. Look at our 10-K. Look at all our disclosures that'll help you figure out what we're doing. Let me start by discussing Allstate's strategy.

The two ovals on the left are the components of our strategy, which is a customer-focused strategy, which is to increase Property-Liability market share and then expand our embedded protection offerings. I'll talk about both of those. The bullets on the right show our approach to creating shareholder value. First, we deliver attractive, risk-adjusted returns, and we have an integrated approach to managing both our capital and our returns.

The Property-Liability business and the embedded insurance businesses both deliver strong bottom-line results. Our investment portfolio is proactively managed, and we manage that on an economic basis, market basis, and looking at enterprise risk and return. Investment income is up over 20% for the first three quarters, so we do deliver good returns.

Second thing is, second thing is once you've done that, increasing auto and homeowners insurance policy growth will both expand income and should expand valuation multiples, and then embedded insurance expansion is another growth opportunity to create value. This slide shows our 2024 financials, and you can see we are generating attractive returns on capital. In the chart on the left, you can see the success of the comprehensive profit improvement plan that we instituted as a result of the inflation in auto insurance loss costs, primarily in used car prices that happened through the pandemic.

You can see the combined ratio is 96.9% for the first nine months of the year, and so we've gotten through the profit improvement plan. Now we're into growth. That's the next phase here. The table on the right shows our success, right? Total revenue is $47.6 billion, which are up 12.6% compared to the prior year. Property liability earned premiums were up 11.5%. On that, investment income was $2.3 billion, 20.5% higher than the prior year.

Net income was almost $2.7 billion, adjusted net income $10.64 a share, and that represents a return on equity of 26.1%, so pursuing growth of the Property-Liability business at these returns will generate higher income and higher valuations, so as a result of that, our focus is now on growth, so let's talk about growth. This slide shows two components of policy growth, and of course, it's not really that complicated.

Now, how many policies do you have? How many new policies did you get? And how many did you keep? In the chart here, you can see that on the left is the composition of the Property-Liability book. So we have 205 million policies in total. This is just the Property-Liability piece. You can see auto policies in the dark blue account for approximately two-thirds of the Property-Liability policies in force. And homeowners in the medium blue is about 20%. We're gonna focus in really on auto insurance today, but the same thing applies to homeowners.

So if you look on the right-hand side, you can see auto insurance policies in force decreased by 378,000 or 1.5% in the third quarter versus the third quarter of the prior year. Homeowner policies, on the other hand, increased by 186,000 or 2.5%. If you go down the columns, it breaks it into the two pieces, so new business applications for auto insurance were 387,000 up, which represents a 25.7% increase versus the prior year quarter.

The renewal ratio, however, was down two-tenths of a point, which led to an overall decrease in policies in force, and we're gonna talk about both of these in a couple of minutes. For homeowners insurance, new business and retention both increased, which led to the increase in policies in force, so let's—I wanna dip down into auto insurance, focusing on these two components, looking really on a longer-term basis, so prior to 2001, our new business was heavily concentrated in the Allstate agent channel, as you can see in the second and third columns of this table.

We, one of the—and then we put in Transformative Growth. One of the parts of Transformative Growth was expand customer access, and so we did a bunch of things for the various channels to do that, so we restructured the Allstate Agent Rewards, to improve growth, and to lower costs. In 2021, we acquired National General, expanding independent agent relationships and gave us a stronger position in non-standard auto insurance.

Transformative Growth also improved our direct sales capabilities, which leverages the Allstate brand, but we also use a lower-priced standard auto product sold through that channel because distribution costs are lower, and so the successful repositioning of that distribution has increased new business and balanced growth between the three channels, as you can see from the two columns on the right. New issued applications for the first nine months of 2024 increased 800,000 policies, versus the prior year or 17%.

In the Allstate agent channel, new business was up 9% on a year-to-date basis, with bundling rates, that being auto and home insurance, at all-time highs. Independent agent channel production increased by 15%. In the direct channel, new business is up 31% on a year-to-date basis. That's a little unfair comparison because we dialed when we decided to reduce growth because of the profit challenges in auto insurance in 2022 and 2023. The first place we dialed it down was direct. So it's not quite the 31% is on a year that we took it down.

But it's way up now. It reflects fewer underwriting restrictions, increased advertising, and launch of a new product, which is affordable, simple, and connected, which is currently available in 31 states, so to help you forecast what new growth might look like, we show a sensitivity on the bottom. The 5% increase in new business from where we are today is 250,000 policies on an annual basis. Now there's a number of initiatives we're doing to increase that new business further from where it is today. The rollout of the new affordable, simple, connected product, both auto and homeowners, will be largely completed next year.

At the same time, we're improving the customer experience, rolling out more sophisticated pricing plans, and beginning to leverage the Allstate brand with non-standard customers. In the independent agent channel, we have a product called Custom 360. National General was primarily a non-standard carrier sold through independent agents. After we bought it, we expanded both our geographic footprint, but we've also now taken Allstate's standard auto, and homeowners' expertise, and we created a series of products called Custom 360. We're expanding that throughout the independent agent channel.

And we should be in all of the country by the end of 2025. At the same time, we've increased our marketing costs and sophistication, and we're personalizing experience. So a lot of things going to drive new business growth. Let's jump into retention, because that's the other key driver of growth. And you can see it's decreased significantly for auto insurance over the past couple of years, in part reflecting a 40% cumulative increase in auto insurance rate. So pandemic happens, used car prices go way up. We have to raise prices. We raise prices. People shop. People shop. We lose customers, and it goes down.

So this chart shows Allstate brand auto insurance retention in black, and rate increases are in the orange dotted line. And you can see the chart shows that they're negatively correlated, right? So you can see the orange line rate increases go up, retention goes down. In the box in the upper right, you can see that the retention, current retention is 85.5, which is 2.1 points lower than the average from 2018 and 2021. Now this is just for the Allstate brand. As Rob knows, we're going to start giving you an overall enterprise retention level, starting in the fourth quarter of this year.

Again, sensitivity, a 1-point increase in retention is worth 350,000 policies or a 1.4% increase in growth. So, it's not like we're just waiting for this to happen. We do have a comprehensive plan on it. And you can see the first thing is just smaller rate increases. So given our current retention levels, and moderating physical damage repair costs, we expect smaller rate increases than has been the case over the last two years.

That should have retention if it's inversely correlated, right? That means retention should go up. We're also doing proactive coverage reviews for existing customers to identify potential savings. When we did the rate increases, because we, the costs were going up so quickly, we said, "Let's just move it through very aggressively. Let's not get as sophisticated as we could because it'll take longer." Now we're going back in and going to customers and helping improve their position, and that's a whole variety of things. Could be increasing deductibles, changing coverage, getting into telematics.

At the same time, we're working on improving the value for customers with millions of customer interactions, improved our customer communications and personalized experience, so we are now positioned to drive auto growth. Let's go to embedded protection, which is also driving growth. So, but think embedded protection is where you're selling protection. It's in the flow of commerce. So as opposed to, "I bought a car, go home, gotta call my insurance agent," separate transaction.

Embedded protection is when I'm buying a TV at Walmart, I'm at the cash register, and they say, "Hey, do you want protection with that?" And you're like, "Yeah, hit the button. Think about it. It's faster, cheaper, easier for the customer," so we're focusing on building out more embedded protection, and so SquareTrade, a company we bought in 2017, does that. If you think about beyond SquareTrade, we do it not just with retailers. We do it through car dealers, benefit brokers, mobile phone carriers, financial institutions.

We're trying to embed our protection in the flow of commerce for a whole bunch of other entities, and that includes the warranties that you see through Protection Plans, but identity protection, roadside services. But Protection Plans we bought for $1.4 billion, and it provides breakage, basically, if something breaks that you buy. In the bottom left, you can see we distribute that to a lot of great retail partners, great, great brand names along with Allstate sold under the Allstate brand name. The premiums for policy are much smaller in this one, but we have 157 million policies in force.

Revenues have grown by 20% compared to the same 12 months in 2023, and returns have been really strong. So we're very excited about this business. I would say since once we bought this business, we paid $1 billion for, we've gotten back, over $700 million in income since we bought it. And you can see it's got great growth rates. Before we move to questions, let me just talk about investments and capital management. So we, as I mentioned, we proactively manage the investment portfolio on an enterprise basis.

In late 2021, we looked at rates and we decided to reduce our duration to roughly three years and wait till rates increased. Duration went down. Rates did increase. We took duration up, and that's worked out quite well for us. The performance-based investments, which are largely private equity, enable us to capture additional value. If you go to capital allocation, first, the Property-Liability businesses earn great returns. So we can, if we can deploy as much capital as we can deploy in expanding those businesses, we're gonna do that.

Organic growth then enables us to both leverage our capabilities and drive valuation changes. We decided to divest our life and health benefits business since those businesses can create additional value for others if there's somebody else who's a better owner. And that process is well underway. We've also had several successful acquisitions.

We talked about Square Trade. National General has more than doubled in the four years since we bought it, and it's getting strong returns. And if there aren't sufficient opportunities to deploy capital leveraging our capabilities and our growing business, then we return to shareholders and we have a good track record there. So, let me stop there and we'll go wherever you wanna go, Rob.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Awesome. All right. I appreciate the comprehensive overview there, Tom, and thanks for being here with us. So I'll start where you started on auto insurance. So the margins have improved meaningfully towards target levels. Can you give us a sense of what that means for the pricing strategy going forward and just how much can margins improve back towards underwriting margins, improve back towards pre-pandemic levels in sort of a steady state?

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

Well, first, right now, we're at where we wanna be, actually. You know, it bounces around sometimes, but like, if we can be in the mid-90s, that's a really good return on capital. That's where our, if you adjust the current results for this year for a variety of changes, we're basically where we now would be. That's not every state, not every market, but in general, we're all good to go on growing the auto insurance business. Looking forward, we think that's gonna be, we're able to maintain that, so I'm not concerned about what's gonna happen.

If you look at the competitive environment, Progressive's taken a couple of increases or decreases, but State Farm has still gotta raise rates, so they're still behind. They're still losing money, so I'm feeling good about the competitive environment. If you look at the cost structure underneath that, the thing that drove the 40% increase in prices was twofold. One was just it costs a lot more to replace and fix cars. So think about this: if you insure a car and you're getting $1,500 a year, and it was worth $20,000 and it got totaled, you're getting $20,000. When it goes up to $32,000, you gotta give them $32,000.

Not a lot of margin to play with there, and so that has moderated and, in fact, come down. As we look forward, the physical damage coverages, which are a little more than half a total loss cost, are sort of around where in general inflation is. So I'm feeling okay about that in terms of both us being able to get those rate increases from our customers and be able to help us, improve retention. The other part that's a little higher, I don't really like the term social inflation 'cause I don't really know what it means. I think fender-bender lawsuits is a better way to describe it. There's just too many fender-bender lawsuits.

You know, somebody's going 10 miles an hour, they get bashed by somebody, suddenly there's a lawyer in there, and so you have more lawyer costs. So we have to figure out how do we address fender-bender lawsuits and not have our customers having to pay for fender-bender lawsuits, which primarily benefit plaintiff attorneys. And yeah, obviously, if you have a big accident, you should have a plaintiff attorney. Like, I'm not against attorneys representing people.

It's just you shouldn't have to represent somebody if they get in a five-mile-an-hour accident, and so that cost is still going up, higher, because they've gotten much more sophisticated on using data and analytics, so we have to figure out how to do that. That said, that's only about a third of cost, depending how you wanna slice and dice it, so I feel good about our ability to maintain margins and grow.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Got it, and then, you know, you just talked about a lot of the different pieces here, but maybe slightly more quantitatively, like, what are you thinking about in terms of frequency and severity as we head into 2025?

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

Well, frequency bounces around, right? So, it depends, you know, when, when does, when does it snow? When does the ice get on the road? Is it at 2:00 P.M. or is it 2:00 A.M.? 2:00 A.M., not so many accidents. 2:00 P.M., like, everybody gets bashed up. So frequency always bounces around about a point a year. Like, it's really hard to figure out. See, you don't actually price as if you know frequency. You price frequency on what it's been. It's been on a long-term trend down. More expensive cars, more sophisticated, with, with more sophisticated safety material has brought frequency down.

Severity, though, has gone up, in part 'cause the cars are more expensive 'cause, you know, a, a side mirror now costs $1,000 bucks when it used to cost, like, you know, $50, 'cause it's got your little blinker on and stuff like that. So that's. They're more expensive cars and people are driving faster. In the pandemic, everybody got used to open roads. They love driving fast. Drive fast, getting a severe accident. So we do have severity going up in the future.

Frequency, we think, will moderate, but it bounces around a little bit. If you wanna look at it on an annual basis, we don't really think about. We obviously have a projection for next year, but it's up in the air. It's, you know, but we think, in general, frequency is going to be our friend, not our enemy.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Okay. Sticking with the margin, as part of Transformative Growth, you've decreased underlying expense ratio meaningfully. Where has this expense efficiency come from? And can you give us a sense if that's all being used towards increasing advertising or if some of that, some of those savings are being passed along to the customer?

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

Okay. Let me, let me go way up for a minute and I'll come down. So Transformative Growth, the, we have been, was all about, it's all about the price. Like, just gotta be lowest price in auto insurance. Like, that's just what you gotta do. So you gotta cut your expenses to do that, and when we decided to do that, we said, "Well, you can't just cut expenses in one area." So basically, Transformative Growth is about changing our entire business model all at the same time. So we changed our technology platform. We changed where we do call center work.

We moved stuff offshore. We cut agent comp. We've cut expenses across the board everywhere because we're in the hunt to be lowest cost on auto insurance. And essentially what we did is we took increased operating risk for lower strategic risk by positioning ourselves with lower cost. No matter what you think happens to autonomous vehicles or anything else, we're still gonna be right there in the hunt. So we cut expenses everywhere. We have more to do. We have to reduce distribution costs more. We have to reduce our processing costs.

We gotta use more technology and take people out of the work. So there's a lot more we have to do. We've basically got to the goal we set out when we first started with you all on Transformative Growth. We haven't put a new goal out, but our goal is to keep reducing expenses.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. And then, switching to growth. So, you know, Allstate is growing new apps in each channel. How should we think about the contribution from the distinct different distribution channels to PIF growth? And can you give us a sense of, you know, where you feel you might have an edge, or at all, or where Allstate is placing a greater value on growth?

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

We'll take everybody we can get. So, let me just—so but I think that for the first time, since we've started pursuing this, I feel good about the capabilities and capacity in all three of our channels. So the Allstate agents, they basically serve people who like insurance companies, believe in branded products, but want some help. So they call an Allstate agent. Then there are people who don't really like insurance companies so much, don't really trust them, but they want help.

They go to an independent agent because they represent multiple companies and they feel like that person's their advocate in between the companies. And then there's people who are very comfortable with insurance, very comfortable making their own decisions.

Operator

Your participation in this conference has been terminated by the host. Goodbye.

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

All three of those, and we'll just hunt that one down in the market. If you look at our existing book of business, that's the existing customers. We have a lot more in the first category than the other two categories. The second category, independent agents, is growing quite rapidly, and that's the National General acquisition. And with Custom 360, I think there's got great growth potential there. In the direct channel, we're about. If you look at our new business today, it's about where the market is. So it's not quite a third of our new business, but it's a much smaller portion of our existing book.

So when you look forward, I think you could expect to see growth in all three channels. It seems reasonably balanced between all those three. That will, over time, shift the book of business. But right now, we're still predominantly with the Allstate agents.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. And you talked about, you know, one large competitor, State Farm, before. When you think about large competitors like GEICO, Progressive, State Farm, you know, does Allstate need to take share from those large competitors in order to achieve these growth objectives, or can you take share solely from smaller players in the market?

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

It should be both, right? Let me go through those first. State Farm, I mentioned, is gonna start raising prices. They just got a 20% increase in California. We took a 30% earlier this year. I think it was like February or something like that, and they took like 15%. Now they took it. So they're gonna come our way, not just in California, but as they seek to raise their prices, and in that customer segment, we compete very heavily with State Farm, so I feel good about our ability. They picked up a couple points of share. This is a story not many people focus on.

They picked up two points of market share over the last three, four years at State Farm, and so I think there's opportunity to grow there. GEICO, on the other hand, lost a point and a half a share. They're really, for that direct customer, I think they just ended up writing a bunch of bad business and just decided we gotta make money so they shed their business and they went way down. They're not really hitting the hammer on growth yet. They're publicly stated. I only know what you know, which is that their technology platform isn't good enough for them to really hit the hammer.

So, our technology platform is good. We are feeling really good about it. We like our direct capabilities. We're finally getting much better at it, and so I like us being able to attack GEICO in that direct channel. In the independent agent channel, right, like, that's where Progressive has it just kills it in nonstandard. We've done very well in nonstandard with National General.

We're gonna now start using more of the Allstate brand, not through independent agents, but in the nonstandard channel. So on a product standpoint, we'll take on them. In homeowners, we're just much better than they are. I mean, we're really good at homeowners. We make really good money on it. They're in a learning mode still. So as a result of that, they've backed off on homeowners. They're starting to, you know, non-renew people and take less new business. So that gives us an opportunity in the independent agent channel with Custom 360 to go out and take share from Progressive.

Now, Progressive's a really good company. They're particularly good on frequent shoppers. But, you know, I'd like, you know, like, I wouldn't mind their valuation, which is why I look at their multiples and look at our multiples, and you'll see why we're chasing growth.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Got it. And I just wanted to double-click on something you just said, related to homeowners. You know, it seems like one of the key differentiators of Allstate's competitiveness right now in the market is that you might be willing to grow in homeowners in areas where others are pulling back. How meaningful can that be for auto policy growth? And you know, why are you comfortable growing in those areas?

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

I think the homeowners' business is misunderstood by investors. They think that it's a highly volatile, low-return business, and it is for the industry, not for us. If you look at the industry profits first over the last 11 years, we've made profit in 10, underwriting income in 10 of those, and our returns on capital on almost any measure of business you wanna do has got a two on it, so if you look at the industry, we've made about three-quarters of the profit that the industry has made. So we've built a really good homeowners' model, and it generates good returns. I think it still freaks people out a little bit.

They're like, "Oh, you got all these catastrophes," but we price for it, so you know, as long as you price for it, it seems to be fine. I actually think it's a growth business. That's not been a big sale with investors. They're like, you know, but you think about climate change, increased severe weather. It'd be like there's growth there. If you look at our top line, we're growing both the average premiums are up double digits. Our policies in force are up 2.5% in a period of time when we weren't really growing auto insurance. I think it has good growth potential. You could be concerned, Rob.

\You were kind of alluding to this, which is what about climate change? And like, you know, are you gonna be the Exxon on the wrong end of history on this one? You know, nobody really knows what's gonna happen with climate change. You know, there's been a lot of severe stuff. What you do know is there's been more severe weather.

As a result of more severe weather, there's been more catastrophe losses. There are three parts to catastrophe losses which have gone up, one of which is not predictable, two of which are predictable. The one that's not predictable is increased severity of storms. Tornadoes are bigger and stronger, more straight-line winds. Hurricanes last longer, have higher wind speeds. That's not, you know, like, it's hard. Nobody can predict that, but then there are two other pieces. One is houses are more expensive and bigger. And second, they're in or third, they're in the wrong places.

Like, we keep building them where there's gonna be catastrophes. Those last two are very knowable. All you gotta do is you can price. So we have roof scores on every house in America. We can tell whether there's, you know, weak branches hanging over 30% of your roof, and we can put that into our underwriting and our pricing. So those last two. So while climate change does create some uncertainty, the two biggest things driving increased catastrophe losses are known. And I think it's kinda really hard to do attribution.

I think Swiss Re or somebody said it was less than a quarter was due to that first category, which is just more severe storms. When you read the newspaper, it's all about climate change driving all these catastrophe losses. Yeah, that is true. But if you didn't put the house in where the hurricane was gonna be, you wouldn't have a loss either. So but we're happy to sell your insurance, if it fits our standards so we can get a return. Obviously, we can't in certain places like Florida and California, but that's okay with us 'cause there's the rest of the country to grow.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. And you just touched on some of the bigger states there. I think you've talked about 75%-85% or 75%-80% of the premium volume in auto insurance now open for business. Can you talk about the rate impacts and your expectations for the market conditions in some of those bigger states that have been a little bit more difficult to kinda reach that pricing threshold?

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

California for auto insurance, we're open for business. Homeowners now and we won't be in until there's such a time when we think we can get a fair return for our shareholders. In New York, which was one of the states we had a problem with, we're kinda open for business. We got a somewhat of an increase, but we're not wildly open. New Jersey, which is the other place, we're still not open for business. We got a like an 18% increase earlier this year.

We're up for another smaller increase in December, but it's not open for business. Other than that, most of the rest of the country is pretty wide open. I mean, there's certain counties and stuff like that where you don't wanna take the business. In general, we're ready to go.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. And then a broad characterization on the competition right now. Do you feel like the competition in today's market is, you know, tougher than it was, say, pre-pandemic, with more carriers reaching pricing adequacy, or is this sort of normal course and it's always pretty competitive market to operate in?

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

It's. I mean, it's not a high-growth market itself as an industry. And we have really smart, good competitors. So I expect competition to be, you know, what it has been, given the people we just talked about. So I'm comfortable we can grow. Like, I think we got enough things going. Not everything I talk about, everything we're doing is gonna win, but there's enough in that portfolio where some of those arrows are gonna hit the mark.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. And, retention, you know, a material driver of the growth formula, obviously. And I was hoping you could talk a little bit about, some of the things Allstate is doing to proactively improve the retention profile and just your expectations on the retention improvement over time.

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

Yeah, so the first thing proactively is, you know, not jacking prices up 'cause we're making good returns. That's, that's a good thing, and that should lead to higher retention. It should just go back. If you look over that, that time series we showed, it does track it, but we're also, the thing I'm most excited about us doing for our customers at this point is going back and saying, "Okay, we had to raise your prices by 40%. How can we help you better manage yourself?"

We did that reasonably well with our agents as we went through the pandemic, which is why if you were to do price sensitivities and you looked at, the price sensitivity taking a 40% increase, if you had asked me three years ago, what would that do to retention? I'm like, it would've killed it. It would've just driven.

We did a much better job of hanging onto those customers even though we raised prices 'cause our agents called people and they said, "Hey, what was your deductible? What should we do with the coverage?" We're now going to, now that we're through that, we're not done though. We can go back and do that again with customers, and I think that will drive increased retention rather than, and that's in addition to just, as opposed to bothering them with the price increase.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Got it. Yeah, I wanted to ask on capital deployment also. You know, PIF growth is gonna require some more capital to be set aside, maybe, maybe more so than Allstate has needed in the past. How do you anticipate that dynamic impacting the pace of share repurchases and other avenues?

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

Well, we kinda have a pecking order that we use in terms of the order is what creates the most shareholder value. That's how we decide. So first, if you can get a 20+% return on your organic business, incremental cost low, low risk, you should do that. You get a higher return and higher valuation. So that's the first and foremost. That's both in Property-Liability and embedded insurance, which has even got higher returns 'cause there's very little capital needed there.

Then we look and say, "Okay, well, is there any other way we can leverage our capabilities on behalf of shareholders and generate more return?" So are we a better owner of a business than somebody else? So in terms of SquareTrade, we said with our brand name and our financial wherewithal, we'll win Home Depot and Walmart.

They didn't have Home Depot and Walmart before we got them. That's driven huge amounts of growth. And so we leverage our capability. It turned out to be a great deal. Similar story with National General. So if we have something where we think that we can be a better owner, we do it. In the Property-Liability business, there's not a lot we need, right? Like, so sometimes small books of businesses come up, particularly in independent agent channel.

We tend not to be the most aggressive bidder for those because we're like, "We're happy to pay for the customers you have, but we're not so happy to pay for anything you think about the future called goodwill." And so we don't in the embedded insurance business. I think there are other ways we could grow, but, like, we're not out hunting anything down.

We've also looked at some of the fintech companies, you know, where they got into our space, didn't really make any money 'cause they didn't know how to underwrite, and now they're trying to, like, sell their technology and get you to do stuff. We've looked at them and thought, you know, like, our technology actually is more contemporary than theirs 'cause we built it sooner, so we don't need their technology, and there's no reason to take a book of business which is losers, and so we don't have anything there.

So then you go to share repurchases. We have a good track record there. If we don't have a use for the money, we give it back to shareholders, and we've done well on that.

Robert Cox
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Awesome. Well, I think we'll leave it at that. We're out of time. So thanks for the [crosstalk], Tom.

Tom Wilson
Chairman, President, and CEO, Allstate

Thank you, Rob. Thanks.

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