First of all, go ahead and get started here. I'm Joe Quatrochi, the Semicap equipment analyst for Wells Fargo. Excited to have Brice Hill, CFO of Applied Materials, here to join us.
Good morning, Joe. We love, everybody loves this facility and the granola bars.
I'll pass my compliments to the chef. Maybe to start, you know, kind of the high level a little bit, I guess, you know, when we look at the Applied Materials story and, you know, you look at your positioning in the market, you know, what do you think investors maybe misunderstand or underappreciate about the Applied Materials story? You know, as you look out in the next three to five years, what, what are you, you know, the most excited about? What do you think is the biggest opportunity for the company?
Yeah, good question. And, of course, I'm a year and a half in the company, so learning a lot about it, too. I think one of the most interesting things that maybe people don't know is how closely semiconductor equipment companies and Applied Materials has to work with its customers to identify the path for R&D. So rather than it being speculative R&D, it's really you're working hand in hand with the customers, pointing to specific inventions and developments that need to be made for their roadmaps that will be put in place. So when you think about the efficiency of the business model, that comes through in the cash flow percentage, it comes through in the operating cash flow percentage. But when you look at the business and what it's done this year, take ICAPS or packaging.
I'll come back to ICAPS as the mature nodes, like IoT communications, auto or sensors, into older technologies. Applied Materials, years ago, worked with its customers on developing technologies to fit these roadmaps. When we look forward and we think about Gate All Around, or we think about Backside Power Delivery, or CFET, or next generation DRAM, Applied Materials is well positioned to serve a lot of the demand for those inflections. I think back to the question, it's like, what's interesting to know about Applied Materials? You really have to have great relationships with your customers. They have to be sharing their roadmap, and you have to have the capabilities in the portfolio to solve their problems. Applied has a broad portfolio. We have the ability to integrate solutions, so that lets you have a very close relationship with effective R&D.
That's perfect. Maybe kind of, you know, double-clicking a little bit on that, let's kind of talk about the demand outlook. You know, obviously, the longer-term thesis you just kind of talked about, but as we kind of, you know, talk about next year, think about, you know, you guys just reported earnings a couple weeks ago. You know, maybe frame the discussion, help us kind of understand, what are you seeing from a WFE perspective looking to 2024? What are maybe the biggest unknowns as you sit today, you know, looking in that visibility?
Sure. So first, just to let you know how we think about it in the company, of course, we're not spending a lot of time really fretting about 2024. I'll come back to 2024 in a second, because I know, you know, this room has to fret about 2024. For us, what do we think about? We think that semiconductors are foundational to productivity investments globally, whether it's data centers, EVs, you know, green power projects. We can go on and on on the end markets that are using semiconductors. So we think semiconductors will grow faster than GDP, a multiple. Last 20 years, semiconductors have grown at 7.5%, I think, CAGR, so it's a multiple of GDP. Then we think equipment companies will grow faster than semiconductors because it's becoming harder and harder to build leading-edge technologies.
We think Applied will grow faster than that because we will gain share for the reasons that we articulated with R&D. And then we think our services business will grow faster than that, low double digits over the coming years. And that's the way we plan our... You know, when you ask, "How do you plan your R&D investments? How do you plan your factory expansions?" That's what we think about, is that macro. For 2024, we guided, we guided Q1, and we said Q1 is gonna be strong again based on DRAM shipments to China. ICAPS is going to be strong in Q1. What we did for 2024, rather than give a WFE number or a specific forecast, we just gave a sense of what the markets, what our feeling for the markets are. NAND has been very low.
We think NAND will improve but still be low, okay? So it'll come off the bottom, if you will, a little bit, and we do see utilizations improving. Leading logic, we expect to improve through the year. It's pretty low right now. Our Q1 guide has strong DRAM, strong ICAPS, pretty weak leading logic. We think that'll grow from the year. Anecdotally, our customers are telling us it will speed up through the course of the year. We see utilizations improving, and we know that Gate All Around will start ramping toward the second half of this year. ICAPS, we said, won't be as strong as 2023. That's our expectation, despite a strong Q1 guide. And then, DRAM, we think, will still be a strong year.
Not as sure if it'll be as strong as last year, but it's been strong for us on the equipment side.
Maybe just kind of double-clicking on that, you know, it seems like the demand drivers are kind of... You know, this year we kind of had a handoff, right, of leading-edge foundry logic, maybe slowing, but being, that being more than made up by ICAPS. Maybe we're kind of seeing that maybe change a little bit this year or into next year, rather. Do you worry about, like, an air pocket of demand, like, seemingly, you know, a handoff of that demand profile, like, changing? Or I guess, how do you think about that as we get. It seems like, you know, second half maybe is a little bit stronger for leading edge....
As we get into the middle of this year, do you see that kind of a little bit of an air pocket potential, or how do you think about that?
I guess we do think that leading edge will be the stronger grower over the medium term. And part of the reason for that is, you know, there's been a significant amount of mature technology investments in China. We think those are operating at not perfectly high yields, because a lot of them are new customers and new factories. So we expect the ICAPS demand, the way we think about it is, it's fairly stable over the coming years, okay? Meaning it grew 40%+ in 2022. It grew even faster in 2023. We expect it to still be a strong market, but stable over the next couple of years, while that capacity matures. And then we expect leading logic to grow. You know, same drivers as historically.
As far as an air pocket, you know, we've been monitoring, we monitor utilization across all of the factories globally. ICAPS, for the first three of our fiscal quarters, was very healthy, and then this last quarter, we said it was lower utilization. And so I don't look at that as an air pocket, because they're not stopping orders and taking a year off or anything, but there is lower utilization in the market, and I would attribute that back to end-market demand. So lower budgets may be on the industrial side, is the market that we called out during our call. So putting those sensors in place, putting the IoT investments in place, that may have slowed down a little bit. But, you know, again, that may be a 2024 thing.
We don't view it as an indication of what's happening over the next three-five years.
And maybe just kind of, you know, staying with ICAPS. You know, it's obviously been a strong several years there. I think the questions I get from investors a lot is kind of trying to parse out what is the strength in domestic China, how do you think about that continuing? It seems like the spending there has a pretty good runway, but then the non-domestic China is maybe the area that you're talking about seeing some cracks or signs of maybe slowing. So how do you kind of break that out? I know that China is the largest market for ICAPS, but I guess, how do you think about those drivers?
Yeah, and we get a lot of questions about China, and just to, you know, fill in a few blanks. 44% of our revenue in Q4 was China. A lot of that was driven by DRAM catching up to some DRAM orders that we're allowed to ship under the trade rules now, and that's gonna happen in Q1 also. Normal size for us is probably around 30%, which we'll return to after we finish these DRAM shipments. We expect China to keep investing, and we expect the ICAPS wafer starts and ICAPS capabilities in China to keep growing. And the reason is, you know, there's a national strategy, we think, to become self-sufficient from a chip perspective.
China consumes about 30% of chip demand globally, and we expect they're trying to put in the capacity to serve 30%. So we don't think that's going to slow down. On the rest of the world, the rest of the world has been serving China, and so we do think that the rest of the world has to reevaluate. If you're selling image sensors into China, and they're building their own capacity for image sensors, we'll have to sort that out globally. That could be a little bit of what's happening in the mature markets, but really, I think it's just back to GDP and where, you know, the end markets are. There's been some talk of, you know, EVs being a little bit slower, although they're great from a chip perspective, and some industrial projects being a little slower.
It's probably those things to point to.
So when you think about, you know, you take a step back and you talk about, you know, the industry, the semiconductor industry, pushing to that $1 trillion, you know, by, pick your timeframe, end of the decade, right? How do you think about ICAPS contributing to that in terms of the growth and just the contribution?
Yeah, this, this whole theme of AI has really put this in relief for us, bold relief. You know, AI relies on data, and our company has been talking about how the IoT investments that are being made in sensors and in creating data, will really be leveraged by this AI capability and the AI capabilities that'll be put in. So we view those both as tailwinds, and they kind of work together. On the AI side, it's going to be, you know, complex systems with graphics, accelerators, high-bandwidth memory, CPUs, all put together on complex systems in using advanced packaging, heterogeneous integration, advanced bonding techniques. That's gonna be a tailwind for the business. But going with that will be ICAPS investments, which will be the sensors and the data collection and that.
So we think, we actually think of both of those as tailwinds for the business.
Maybe just kinda going back to China a little bit. You know, given that they've been, you know, running at such a high level in terms of kind of revenue contribution and, and just, you know, spending in general, and maybe put the memory piece of it to the side for a second. I mean, how do you think about... Like, what, what's the biggest risk of, like, a slowdown of demand there? Is it fab readiness? Is it just kinda digestion of what, you know, they've spent in terms of focusing more on just trying to ramp those fabs that they've already put in place? Like, how, how do you think about those dynamics?
Yeah. First of all, we don't see a cliff, just to be clear.
Yeah.
So when we look at the next few years, and we talk to these customers, it's many more customers than we used to have. So there's tens of customers. A lot of them are new in the last few years. They're building factories, they have products, you know, they have financial support, et cetera. To be clear, no cliff. But if I were to, you know, speculate, then I think consolidation, just from a business sense, would be something that would change the dynamic in the market. In other words, if you have, you know, let's just make it up, a scenario.
If you have 10 companies investing in 28 nm and making image sensors, and they're, you know, at various yield stages and various success in the market, if somehow those 10 companies were to consolidate, like would happen in a lot of normal business situations, then you improve yields and you improve the factory environment, and that may dampen demand a little bit. I mean, I think other than trade or, or, you know, geopolitical disruptions, I think that's the only scenario in my mind that would slow down the investment path.
Okay, that's helpful. One of the questions that I get a lot is just given, you know, the demand that you're seeing in China, is obviously they're trying to develop their own semiconductor ecosystem just kind of across the board, right? I'm curious, like, how do you think about competition from Chinese equipment manufacturers? And maybe just remind us of your differentiation and your competitive positioning.
Yeah. So there's always gonna be competitors, and there are a few Chinese companies that make semiconductor equipment. From our perspective, you know, the number one competitive reaction for us is to keep advancing the roadmap from an R&D perspective. We talked about developing 20 new tools for the ICAPS space over the last few years with our ICAPS group. You know, I view Applied Materials as sort of a system. When we sell a system to the customer, we have a network of suppliers that can offer the spares, and these are high-quality spares that can keep the tools running. We have a service capability that can help the customer ramp up quickly to high yields and keep the equipment running at high yields. We have a roadmap for how to improve the equipment over time.
For example, better eco footprint, lower power, lower chemical utilization, you know, better efficiency from a spares perspective, et cetera. So when you buy an Applied tool, first of all, you know that it's used by the leading world manufacturers in whatever node you're building. It's already there, it's demonstrated, it's operating, it can, it can produce high-yielding products, and you've got that sort of ecosystem of products and services around it and supply chain. I think it's difficult to replicate that. So for us, it's advance and deepen those capabilities as quickly as we can.
That's helpful. Maybe shifting gears a little bit, you know, leading-edge foundry logic, obviously, you talked about that being weak. You know, the improvements that you're seeing in that demand kind of visibility, I guess, you know, looking in the second half, how do you think about some of it's technology-driven, right? Architectural changes in terms of, you know, you talked about Gate All Around, but backside power. But how do you think about just the improvement your customers are seeing from utilization rates, you know, and better visibility into just kind of those transitions?
Yeah. So it's all, you're always reading the tea leaves. We do see, our customers forecasting higher utilizations in this quarter-
Mm-hmm.
- that we're in right now. We do know that Gate All Around will start shipping from a technology perspective. We do get anecdotally from our customers that they're expecting a stronger year in 2025 from a leading-edge logic perspective. We also know that if you're a leading-edge foundry and you're putting a node in place for, you know, the largest customers in the world, there's no negotiation on that timing. If you're landing a new node and the largest companies in the world are designing products that take three or four years to design on that node, you have to put that node in place. It's not really discretionary, it's not timing. It's a, you know, it's a meeting of the two technologies at the same time. So we know some of these investments will be made. It's just a matter of, of scale.
So I think it's... Utilization's going up. Anecdotally, we're hearing that from customers. The end markets, I should mention, you know, just the, the AI excitement and the tailwind from AI in terms of HBM accelerators, new systems that are being designed to invest in that. That is providing a lot of leading-edge, you know, excitement, if you will, and most of it's pointed towards accelerating through the back half of this year and into 25.
What about, you know, how do you think about the opportunity for 3 nm versus 5 nm? I know, you know, we haven't seen a lot of tool reuse for the last couple nodes, and that question starts to really come up, given where utilization rates are, even though they're maybe starting to show signs of improving. So I guess, what, help us understand, like, what, what is, how do you think about that?
Well, we think, we think 5 nm, you know, is probably, we think 3 nm will be probably similar size node to 5 nm, and maybe, maybe 2 nm will be much larger. But, you know, it's interesting, I remember thinking about the reuse topic. I have maybe a different view on reuse than you might expect, and that is, reuse is a great indication.
If companies are so enthused by the next node that they're gonna take their product, their device, and redesign it on the next node because it's going to be smaller, it's going to be lower power, and it's going to be higher performance, performance, power, area, then that's just a great indication that, you know, Moore's Law is working, and the benefits that we see from the new technology are working, and that reuse is going to make a bigger node on that next landing spot, if you will. So I personally almost view it as a good thing from the perspective of, you know, it's indicating the health of the process, if you will. Now, in practice, the foundry customers typically don't move that equipment forward. They fill up the prior nodes.
I don't know if that's going to change with 5 nm or not. We'll have to wait and see, but if it does, I would view it as a good indicator.
Okay. You know, maybe we'll see kind of how numbers shake out, you know, with WFE, where it falls, you know, as we get into the next year. But I guess, you know, it seems like you guys are gonna take quite a bit of share this year, just given your revenue's down much less than the overall market, much less than your peers. I guess, how do you think about that looking into next year, you know, just given the kind of handoff of demand that we're seeing and just your position and some of the opportunities to maybe gain share or protect share?
Yeah. So for investors, you know, we do expect to gain share, and what I hope that it demonstrates is the company's capability to identify three, four, five, six, seven years in advance. What are the fastest areas of growth? Where do customers need the most help for new techniques, new tools, new solutions? And getting those in place in time to match the customer's roadmaps. So 2023, DRAM ended up being a pretty strong year, and we highlighted that we've gained 10 points of share in DRAM. It's using more of the technologies in terms of High-K Metal Gate and patterning, like Logic did years ago. So we're not forecasting to lose share, as we go forward.
I mean, there are scenarios where that could happen, but we think because of Gate All Around, because of DRAM, because of Backside Power, because of CFET, because of the packaging growth, we're not anticipating losing share.
Yeah. Maybe double-click on some of those DRAM opportunities. I think that's been a surprise, right? As you just said, that, you know, even outside of the domestic China growth, like, why all of a sudden this year is maybe some of those architectural changes or just kind of some of those wins that you've had over the last couple of years start to kind of really drive revenue?
Well, I think the latest architectures are employing those techniques, so it's leaning more towards that mix of tools that are being, you know, deployed now. So you see some of that mix change coming into effect. And then, if you look for a market, you know, if you look for a market driver, I guess there's two comments I would make for, you know, to share. One is HBM. HBM is only probably 3%-5% of wafer starts in DRAM, but we're going to say it's growing at 30%+, because partially or mostly driven by this AI workload environment. And then the other thing, when we think about the memory business, and this is probably true for both, both memory businesses, DRAM and NAND, they're not adding a lot of wafer start capacity.
So as bit demand grows, the way they're getting the bit demand or getting the bit supply, is by the new node technology that increases the density of bits on wafers. And so what's really happening across the ecosystem is, in DRAM, is they're upgrading those nodes to the latest technology, which gives them the bit growth to serve the demand. And so when we think about it, that just means that the business we're serving for DRAM, you know, people think about, "Well, are they gonna stop building DRAM factories?" Not really building DRAM factories. There are some, but what they're doing is they're upgrading the technologies that they have, and we think that will continue.
That's helpful. Maybe just kind of sticking with the memory for a little bit. You know, one of the things that we've heard some of your customers talk about, right, is maybe taking tools that they're idling right now and then kind of moving those, you know, to the next node of technology to, to kind of, one, it lowers their, their wafer start capacity, and two, helps with utilization, and then just helps with, you know, CapEx spending and, and cash requirements. I guess, how do you think about that as, one, is that better in terms of just kind of finding a bottom of the cycle and showing sustainable improvements for utilization rates?
And then two, how do you think about, you know, that in terms of maybe shortening or lengthening the equipment cycle that maybe might be kind of decoupled a little bit from the kind of in-demand, you know, cycle for, for memory?
I think it's normal behavior for memory makers and foundries. You know, when you're trying to put a new node into production, it's just a bit of an art, if you will, in terms of how much of the old node do you take out of production and convert versus how much new capacity do you put in place, and then when do you convert the stuff that you didn't move forward right away to the new node? You just have to strategically plan that. You're right, there are some customers that, because DRAM and NAND have been underloaded, that they've been able to take factories that are underloaded and move faster from a upgrade perspective. I don't view that as anything unique in the equipment cycle.
I think that happens all the time, and it's just this, if they're underloaded, it gives them an easier time of planning that conversion.
Yeah. Okay. Well, maybe this is kind of a segue. How do you think about, like, is that more service intensive, or does that help the service business a little bit in terms of just kind of giving better visibility to spares and, you know, some of the recurring revenue?
Which part of the,
Just that transition of the capacity. And then I assume there's probably some services involved with just transitioning that as well.
Yeah, you know, I'm hesitating because when you have a lower utilized environment, lower utilization environment like we've had with NAND and DRAM this year, that automatically lowers the services business in total.
Right.
Because we're, you know, we're selling transactional spares, we're selling things that the more you run them, the more they're going to use. So I think it makes that business weaker. And as you, you know, as you think about putting new investments in place for the new nodes, that does give us an opportunity to sell new services. So there is pros and cons in that environment.
Yeah. Maybe just, you know, kind of moving to the services business more in general, and talk about your, your confidence of returning back to, you know, kind of a low double-digit growth as we look into 2024.
Yeah, this is a really important theme for investors. So, you know, our services business, last year, we had a 23% growth in our dividend. We highlighted that we're going to grow our dividend at similar rates for the next few years, doubling it from where it was. And the mental model there is, services business is gonna grow at low double digits. It has a different driver than the equipment business. Equipment business is obviously, you know, what investments are being made in factories and equipment. The services business is our footprint, the tools that are already installed, and every time we ship a tool, that puts more tools into the market, and then those tools are hungrier for, you know, intensity from a spares perspective, and hungrier for services. So the service TAM, if you will, for each tool goes up.
That's what gives us the confidence that, we'll have a low double-digit growth rate in the services business. And I pointed out the dividend because what's kind of interesting to me from a finance perspective is, you know, our services business profits more than pay the dividend today. And so in thinking through it, as we raise that dividend, I'm thinking that'll be a stream that the services business can, conceptually, serve. And then the equipment business that delivers profits that maybe are a little bit more volatile than the services business, can do the buybacks, the share buybacks, which distribute capital back to, investors from that perspective. And it's just kind of a good way to think of the cash flows.
Some, you know, some investors will do some of the parts models for the different pieces of the business, and I think the characteristics are different and the stability is different, and that's another unique benefit of an investment in Applied.
Okay. That's helpful. Maybe just kind of as we're thinking about, you know, there's a lot of focus, obviously, on the spare parts piece of it, just given what's been going on in memory, but I guess, like, how do you think about, like, what's the spare- spares, like, intensity rate, or, or how do you think about the differential between, like, memory versus ICAPS versus leading-edge found logic? Is it different?
You know, the intensity is different for each tool type.
Mm-hmm.
So I think when we think about it, we don't think about it so much as what's the technology being employed, as we do each tool type at a customer has a different need from a spares perspective and a services perspective. What we do concentrate a lot on is, you know, if they're smaller customers that are less experienced, then it's, you know, one type of selling model and help that we can offer them. If it's a large customer that's building in a new location, maybe because of incentives, they don't have a workforce there, then we've got win-win capabilities to help them ramp their new factory.
And so it's probably different for each customer, and we think of it that way, rather than we do, you know, there's a memory strategy or a NAND strategy or something like that.
Okay. That's helpful. I think, you know, within the broader AGS segment, you know, the 200 mm business is in there as well. Talk about, like, the growth that you've seen in that business, and how do you think about, you know, the... One, like, I think it's all ICAPS, right? But just how does that contribute to the overall business? How, you know, how are you thinking about the growth of that business relative to total ICAPS?
Yeah. So 200 mm, we've characterized our services business. Historically, about 15% of that has been the 200 mm equipment, so the older, smaller wafer size equipment. And that was larger as a percentage. In 2023, we didn't share exactly what that number was, but, you know, ICAPS grew at 40% in 2022, higher in 2023, and that part of the equipment business also grew. And I would say very similar, we expect it in 2024, maybe to not be as strong as it was in 2023 and follow the shape of ICAPS.
On the services business, the reason we're expecting good growth in the services business, even if I say that, that the 200 mm will be, you know, whatever, it'll be, slightly lower than it was in 2023, is, you're gonna have that utilization improving through the course of the year, and that will lift the ability to offer, transactional services to customers.
Helpful. One of the interesting metrics that I know you guys gave at your Analyst Day was, you know, basically, I think you had a 25% share of, like, your engineering and maintenance revenue, like, for your entire install base. How do you think about... Like, what are the opportunities to grow that share, and, like, where are we today?
That's a great. So first of all, we had a Master Class on our website, and I think we shared it's getting close to 30%.
Okay
... which is approximately right for where we are today. And the reason that's going to grow over time, it goes back to sort of that dynamic I described. The newer equipment that we're selling is more service intensive, and so it's more likely that customers will want to engage. And this goes back to, we understand the whole fleet of equipment that's deployed.... we have data on how those tools work across a whole number of different applications. Sorry. And so, we analyze that data and train it using AI and try to figure out what are the best settings for these tools to match them quickly, get them up to high yield, get them up to maximum uptime, and then we can share that with customers.
So that sort of intensity of, you know, service TAM, if you will, for each tool, is growing, and that's what will help us with that business. Yep.
That's helpful. You know, one of the things that you talked about a little bit, but, like, you guys have talked about, you know, government incentives being, you know, positive for WFE in terms of just kind of, you know, there's some inefficiencies or added wafer capacity. But how do you think about that from a services perspective? And then also, like, you know, they're adding more people, like, there's gonna be, you know, increased competition for talent. So how do you, how do you kind of balance those two dynamics?
Yeah, those are great things to think about. At first, I would say, I would want everybody to think about, at least from Applied's perspective, is we don't view the incentives as creating incremental capacity. We do think it'll be slightly less-
Yeah
... efficient. So we said 3%-5%. Like, if, you know, if a major customer that usually builds in one place is going to build somewhere else, and they don't have anything there, that factory will be 3%-5% less efficient, we think, than if they built it in their hometown, right? And so when we model, what's the effect of all these global incentives on Applied, it's not like we're putting a big factor on WFE and saying, "Oh, it's gonna be a lot bigger." We're not doing that. And then from a services perspective, it's actually, it's actually a door opener, if you will, because of just the reason you said.
Customers may not have an employee base there, and if Applied does, then it's a win-win for us to come help them and help them ramp, and help them ramp quickly. And so, that is a stimulus, if you will, for the services business.
Okay, that's perfect. Maybe we can pause there. I don't know if there's any questions in the audience or the room that... Or I can keep going.
Yeah.
Okay, why don't I keep going? Maybe we haven't talked about gross margin. Maybe, you know, talk us through kind of just... Let's, let's start with the, the current quarter guide, you know, the puts and takes of the 47% guide. I think you talked about China DRAM being kind of a mixed benefit of around 100 basis points. Maybe just let's start there.
Sure. So we had 47.3% in Q4, characterized about 100 basis points of that because of the high China component of our revenue, so we were 44% of the revenue was China. And just to be really clear, we don't differentiate based on country on our pricing. What's happening is the customers in China are typically smaller customers, so they don't have the same pricing as some of the largest customers. So from a mix perspective, when we sell into China, you have a gross margin benefit. As we go forward, our goal, our interim goal is 48%-48.5% in 2025. That's a year later than our model. We pushed it back because the trade rules took a significant amount of the China business away from us.
And, you know, the way we're going to accomplish that goal and the progress we're making is value pricing. So we're working to recover some of the increased costs that have occurred to the business that will be permanent, and then we are working constantly on improving the tools and cost reductions and cost maintenance. So it's those two things that will help us move higher. And I will say, our services business is a little bit of a weight on gross margins, so as that grows at double digits, it's sort of masking some of the progress we're making in the core business. But from an operating profit, it's-
Accretive.
It's accretive, yeah.
Yeah. Yeah, but maybe kind of on that, right, talk about some of the structural changes you guys have made, you know, maybe in your supply practices, supply chain practices, you know, that benefit that longer term. I think there's still kind of, you know, the headwinds of inflation still working on the model a little bit, too.
Yeah, this is an important one for us and with customers, too. What we're trying to do is give our suppliers a longer lead time and longer visibility so that they can be successful, and we can be successful. We were behind on orders entering this year. We had some shipments that were incomplete. There was a lot of struggle. As the business grew as fast as it did, there was a lot of struggle with the supply chain. Now it's like: Get your orders in ahead of time. You'll, you'll see our backlog is going to be $17 billion-ish when we file our 10-K. So we've got a large backlog. It's get your orders in, let's freeze the specs for those orders so that the suppliers can know, you know, many months ahead of production, what exactly what we need to build.
Then we get the parts in on time and have a better inventory position than we've had in the two years prior. So basically, it's a lot of structural and planning improvements with supply chain that will get us there.
Out of time.
All right, Joe.
Thank you much.
Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Thanks, everybody. Thank you.