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Earnings Call: Q4 2013

Jan 21, 2014

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Huey, and I'll be your conference operator for today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to AMD's fourth quarter 2013 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on a listen-only mode at this time. After the speaker's remarks, you'll be invited to participate in the question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Ruth Cotter, Vice President of Investor Relations for AMD. Please go ahead.

Ruth Cotter
VP of Investor Relations, AMD

Thank you, welcome to AMD's fourth quarter and year-end earnings conference call. By now, you should have had the opportunity to review a copy of our earnings release and the CFO commentary and slides. If you've not reviewed these documents, they can be found on AMD's website at quarterlyearnings.amd.com. This is a live call and will be replayed via webcast on amd.com. Participants joining us on today's call are Rory Read, our President and Chief Executive Officer, Devinder Kumar, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and we'll also have Lisa Su, our Senior Vice President and General Manager of Global Business Unit, who will participate in the QA portion of the call. I'd like to highlight a few dates for you. Devinder will attend the Goldman Sachs conference on February 12th. Our first quarter quiet time will begin at the close of business on March 14th.

Lastly, we intend to announce our first quarter 2014 earnings on April 17th. Dial-in information for that call is expected to be provided in mid-March. Please note that the non-GAAP financial measures referenced on this call are reconciled to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in the press release and CFO commentary posted on our website, quarterlyearnings.amd.com. Before we begin the call today, let me remind everyone that today's discussions contain forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it. Those statements are based on current beliefs, assumptions, and expectations, speak only as of the current date, and as such, involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to the cautionary statement in our press release for more information.

You'll also find detailed discussions about our risk factors in our filings with the SEC, and in particular, AMD's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 28, 2013. With that, I'd like to hand the call over to Rory. Rory?

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Thank you, Ruth. We made good progress last year in executing our three-step strategic turnaround to restructure, accelerate, and ultimately transform AMD. We completed our restructuring, creating a more efficient business model with significantly lower operating expenses. We also accelerated our business, generating strong revenue growth and a return to profitability in the second half of the year by successfully ramping our strong and diverse set of new products. As we move forward, we will continue to strategically transform AMD as we diversify our portfolio and drive a larger percentage of our revenue from the semi-custom, ultra-low-power client, embedded, dense server, and professional graphics high-growth markets. In the fourth quarter, we delivered revenue of $1.59 billion, an increase of 9% sequentially and 38% from the year-ago period, while increasing profitability.

We exceeded the goal we set for the semi-custom and embedded businesses to generate 20% of our revenue by the fourth quarter of 2013. We believe this validates the strategy we outlined two years ago to embrace the trends reshaping the industry. We remain on track for our growth businesses to generate approximately 50% of our revenue by the end of 2015. All of this work is underscored by the improved execution across the AMD company as we hit our key product, IP development, supply chain, and financial milestones in 2013. Our flawless semi-custom production ramp propelled the business in the fourth quarter and allowed us to meet the strong demand for Sony's and Microsoft's game consoles. Combined, Sony and Microsoft reported selling more than 7 million units in less than two months.

This is more than double the number of prior generation consoles sold in their first quarter of introduction. We expect this momentum will continue as we increase game console SoC shipments for the year and pursue new wins from our semi-custom design pipeline. Our embedded business achieved sequential revenue growth increases throughout 2013. We have secured design wins to drive further growth and expect continued momentum as we begin offering both x86 and ARM-based solutions in 2014. Our unique position offering both x86 and ARM solutions, combined with our years of experience in the server market and industry-leading fabric technology differentiates us as we bring an expanded set of solutions to this important market.

We remain on track to begin sampling our new ARM-based SoCs later this quarter, and we are seeing strong interest from both traditional server OEMs and end customers like cloud providers. Our professional graphics business set a record for the full year revenue in 2013. We believe we can drive additional growth based on incremental focus and investments we are making to further strengthen our product offerings, expand our work with key software developers and secure more design wins. Apple's new Mac Pro desktop with dual AMD FirePro GPUs is a perfect example of our momentum in this margin-accretive market. Now turning to our traditional businesses. As we said during our last earnings call, we expected GPU revenue to rebound as we accelerate the transition to our new R9 and R7 graphics chips. That is what happened.

Strong demand for our latest graphics chips drove a significant sequential increase in GPU revenue and ASP. Our strategy to attack the desktop add-in board channel worked well in the quarter, and we expect this trend to continue. We believe we are well positioned to gain graphics market share in 2014 based on continued channel momentum, secured wins for our new R7 and R9 discrete mobile GPUs, and strong adoption in the professional graphics space. We also delivered our third straight quarter of desktop processor revenue in the fourth quarter, largely driven by increased shipments of our higher-end APUs and FX CPUs. We also began shipping the desktop version of our newest APU, Kaveri, in December, and we believe it will fuel future growth by delivering a significant performance advantage versus competitive offerings.

Kaveri supports our Mantle API for better gaming experience and is the industry's first product to integrate HSA's features that can improve performance and power efficiencies when running modern workloads. The consumer notebook market remained soft in the fourth quarter. We focused on improving mix and reducing downstream inventory with our customers. We have secured a number of premium notebook design wins for Kaveri and also have solid adoption of our next-generation low-power Mullins and Beema SoCs, which deliver twice the performance per watt of our previous offerings. We believe we are taking the right steps to create a more predictable and balanced PC business moving forward by continuing to drive a richer product mix, by focusing on parts of the market where we are underrepresented and have significant growth opportunities.

For instance, we have secured a significant number of new commercial client design wins with tier-1 OEMs, which will launch in the second half of the year. We continue to believe that the PC market will be down for the year. As we discussed during the last earnings call, our planning assumptions are based on a 10% decline in the market. Since that call, we are seeing some signs that parts of the market may be stabilizing. Given where we are in the quarter, it is too early to know if these signals will continue or not. We are managing the business to the base assumption, but we are ready and poised to take advantage of any upside as it materializes. In summary, for 2013, we hit key milestones in our multiyear strategic turnaround. We completed our restructuring, creating a more efficient operating model.

We accelerated our business by ramping a strong set of new and diverse products across both traditional and new growth businesses. Our semi-custom embedded offerings delivered more than 20% of our revenue in the fourth quarter, and we returned AMD to profitability and positive free cash flow in the second half of the year. In 2014, our next objective is to achieve revenue growth and profitability at the net income level for the full year as we leverage our differentiated IP and products to further expand our growth businesses, participate across a broader part of the traditional PC market to create a more balanced and consistent revenue stream and to continue to pursue efficiencies in our business model that will further reduce operating expenses.

We are midway through our multi-year turnaround and feel very good about the progress we have made to date and our abilities to continue to meet our commitments. We have built a solid foundation from which we can continue to transform AMD into a more diverse company, delivering consistent revenue growth and profitability. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Devinder. Devinder?

Devinder Kumar
SVP and CFO, AMD

Thank you, Rory. 2013 was a year of many accomplishments for AMD, as we completed the first two phases of our three-phase transformation plan. We completed the corporate reset and restructuring and had solid execution in the second half of 2013. At the beginning of 2013, we laid out a number of key financial goals as part of that plan, specifically to return to profitability and positive free cash flow in the second half of the year, to reduce our operating expenses by more than 20% from Q1 2012 levels, and to generate more than 20% of our revenues from our semi-custom and embedded products. I'm happy to report we achieved and exceeded all of those goals. In addition, we maintained cash balances above our optimal balance of $1.1 billion throughout 2013 and stabilized the business with solid execution and financial discipline.

All of this provides a good foundation as we enter 2014 and continue our strategic transformation. Let me share some specifics for 2013. We achieved revenue of $5.3 billion, gross margin of 37%, non-GAAP operating expenses of $1.9 billion, down 14% year-over-year, non-GAAP operating income of $103 million, up from $45 million in 2012, capital expenditures of $84 million, down significantly from $133 million in 2012, and finally, we exited 2013 with cash balances, including marketable securities of $1.2 billion and increased available liquidity by $500 million through establishing a secured revolving line of credit. Now let me turn to the specifics of the fourth quarter of 2013. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2013 was $1.59 billion, an increase of 9% from the third quarter and an increase of 38% from the fourth quarter of 2012.

The increase was driven by very strong performance in our Graphics and Visual Solutions segment, driven by increased revenue from our semi-custom SoCs and our new R7 and R9 series of GPU products, which more than offset the decline in revenue in our Computing Solutions segment. Gross margin was 35%, down one percentage point sequentially, in line with our expectations as sales of our semi-custom SoCs grew significantly and formed a larger mix of overall revenue. The fourth quarter financial results include a $7 million benefit from the sale of inventory reserved in the third quarter of 2012, as compared to a similar $19 million benefit in the prior quarter. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $462 million, above our targeted level of $450 million, primarily due to higher expenses in sales and marketing during the holiday period and employee-related performance-related programs.

Non-GAAP operating income was $91 million. Non-GAAP net income was $45 million, both of which exclude a net benefit of $48 million from legal settlements in the quarter. We delivered non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.06 and adjusted EBITDA of $165 million, excluding a net $48 million benefit from legal settlements. Turning to the business segments. Computing Solutions segment revenue was $722 million, down 9% sequentially, primarily due to decreased chipset and notebook unit shipments. Computing Solutions operating loss was $7 million as compared to an operating income of $22 million in the third quarter, primarily due to decreased levels in revenue and higher marketing and employee-related performance plan expenses. Graphics and Visual Solutions segment revenue was $865 million, up 29% sequentially, driven by increased shipments of game console semi-custom SOCs in our R7 and R9 series of GPU products.

Graphics and Visual Solutions segment operating income was $121 million, up from $79 million in the prior quarter, primarily due to higher revenue. Turning to the balance sheet. Our cash equivalents, and marketable securities balance, including long-term marketable securities, was $1.2 billion, in line with our expectations and flat from the third quarter. Inventory was $884 million, down $38 million sequentially, primarily due to higher shipments of products in our Graphics and Visual Solutions segment. Our total wafer purchases from GlobalFoundries in 2013 were approximately $960 million, lower than the previously estimated $1.15 billion due to lower fourth-quarter purchases. There were no penalties associated with this reduction. We are actively working on our 2014 wafer supply agreement with GlobalFoundries based on our full-year demand expectations, with a goal to manage inventory flat to down year-over-year.

In the first quarter of 2014, we paid GlobalFoundries the final $200 million payment related to the reduction of our take-or-pay wafer obligation commitments in 2012. Debt as of the end of the quarter was $2 billion, flat from the prior quarter. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately $50 million of our outstanding 6% 2015 convertible senior notes in the open market. These purchases were funded by utilizing our secured line of credit revolver. Turning to the outlook. For the first quarter of 2014, AMD expects revenue to decrease 16% sequentially, ±3%. We expect Computing Solutions segment revenue to be down in line with seasonality. We expect Graphics and Visual Solutions revenue to be down coming off a strong Q4 for our semi-custom SOCs. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 35%.

Non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $420 million, driven by lower sales and marketing expenses, accelerated IP reuse, and rebalancing of resources in some of our businesses. Inventory is expected to be approximately flat from fourth quarter levels. Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities are expected to be approximately $1 billion. On cash, we have had two important cash reference points over the past year. One, our optimal cash balance target of $1.1 billion. The other, our target minimum cash level of $700 million. In light of the progress in the transformation of our business model, with a more predictable revenue stream from our growth businesses and the availability of $500 million of liquidity available under our secured revolving line of credit, we are revising our optimal cash level to be approximately $1 billion and our target minimum cash to $600 million.

For the full year 2014, we expect revenue to increase year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of approximately $420 million-$450 million per quarter, depending on the timing of R&D expenses and the revenue profile. Taxes of approximately $3 million per quarter to be net income profitable for the year. Inventory to be flat to down year-over-year. Capital expenditures of approximately $120 million to be free cash flow positive for the year. Finally, to maintain cash equivalents, and marketable securities balances in the optimal zone of $1 billion and above the target minimum of $600 million. In summary, we achieved critical milestones in the first 2 phases of our strategic transformation during 2013 and delivered solid financial performance in the fourth quarter.

We remain focused on maintaining the operational and financial discipline that we demonstrated in 2013 as we embark on the third phase of our strategic transformation with the goal of transitioning 50% of our revenue to high-growth markets by the end of 2015. With that, I'll turn it back to Ruth. Ruth?

Ruth Cotter
VP of Investor Relations, AMD

Thank you, Devinder. Operator, we can now please for you to poll the audience for questions.

Operator

Sure thing. Ladies and gentlemen on the phone lines, to queue up for a phone question, please press star then one on your touchtone phone. If your question has been answered or wish to remove yourself from the phone queue, you may press the pound key. Again, if you would like to queue a question at this time, please press star then one on your touchtone phone. One moment for phone questionists to queue. It looks like our first question will come from the line of David Wong with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

David Wong
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Thank you very much. Your microprocessor APU ASPs have been doing very well recently. What do you expect going forward in the March quarter? Does Kaveri help ASPs to rise?

Lisa Su
SVP and General Manager of Global Business Units, AMD

Hi, David. This is Lisa. Let me answer that question. We have been working hard on the mix of our product portfolio in both desktop and notebook, and we saw a nice uptick in Q4. I think going forward, we do have a strong set of products. We'll have to see how 2014 unfolds. Kaveri, we're very pleased with the performance and the launch in the desktop channel. You'll be seeing that in the notebooks, and we'll also be introducing our new Mullins and Beema product later on in the year as well. We'll continue to work on the mix of the Computing Solutions ASPs going forward.

David Wong
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Okay, great. My other question, Devinder, you did very well on the profitability in the December quarter. Will you be able to keep net income flat or positive as you go into the seasonal lull?

Devinder Kumar
SVP and CFO, AMD

I think as we gave the guidance for Q1, if you do the math, that's how it comes out, David. Our goal is obviously to be profitable for the year and for Q1 with the revenue and the gross margin and OPEX profile that we have, our goal is to be breakeven or better from a profitability standpoint.

David Wong
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you, sir. It looks like our next question in queue will come from the line of Hans Mosesmann with Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Hans Mosesmann
Analyst, Raymond James

Yes, thanks. A question on your ARM strategy and Seattle. Based on what you've seen over the past quarter, has the opportunity in servers in that particular area, has that increased, has it been the same, or is it less? Thanks.

Lisa Su
SVP and General Manager of Global Business Units, AMD

Hans, on the server strategy and the ARM strategy with our Seattle product, I think our view is that the opportunity is definitely there. We've always said that ARM is a longer-term opportunity in terms of how it folds into the server market. What we've seen is continued interest in our ARM product portfolio, not just from traditional server vendors, but also from some of the cloud vendors. We're very pleased with the progress with that, and we'll continue to work hard with that strategy.

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Hans, also remember that we really want to continue to leverage ARM, not only across the server space, but also into embedded and potentially into the semi-custom space, as it gives us increased capability. We think that ambidextrous part of the strategy and our leadership in 64-bit compute will give us a significant opportunity and an expansion in TAM that will give us long-term opportunity to expand revenue.

Hans Mosesmann
Analyst, Raymond James

Thanks. If I may follow on, the Beema and Mullins APUs seem to go up against Bay Trail from Intel. I asked the question last time, and I'd like to ask it again because I didn't get the proper answer, I suppose. What is the competitive advantage of Beema and Mullins versus Bay Trail? Thanks.

Lisa Su
SVP and General Manager of Global Business Units, AMD

Okay, Hans, let me try to answer that for you. Mullins and Beema are really targeted at the low-power APU space. We just showed some of the latest performance metrics at CES, and what you'll see is that on graphics performance, it's substantially better. We're talking about 250% better than the comparable Bay Trail products. What's different is on the compute performance, where we had traditionally been not as strong, we see significant performance improvements. I think we feel very good about our positioning versus Bay Trail. We're continuing to be very aggressive with how we position our products in this space, and we will look for a balanced business going forward there.

Hans Mosesmann
Analyst, Raymond James

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Our next phone question will come from Chris Rolland with FBR. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Christopher Rolland
SVP, FBR

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Perhaps you can talk about the staggered geographic launch of the PS4 in Japan in February. I thought this might have made the GPU business a little less seasonal than normal than we might have expected. Also, I know you guys don't guide two quarters ahead, but given that staggered launch, what does that do for second quarter seasonality as well? Maybe we can get some color there. Thanks so much.

Lisa Su
SVP and General Manager of Global Business Units, AMD

Okay, Chris, let me start, and then maybe Devinder and Rory can add. When you look at the game console market, it is a five, seven-year market. When you look at the first year of launch, there are those different components that you talked about in terms of the staggered launch. If you look at how it's progressed, Q4 was a very strong quarter. When you look at the launch quarter and the number of units sold that our customers have reported, double what you have seen in previous launches. When we look into Q1, we do expect a strong quarter as well. Looking into 2014, you would expect that the second half will be stronger than the first half.

I would guide you to look at when the major titles are released for the various game consoles to see what you'll see a little bit of, I wouldn't call it seasonality, but I would call it a little bit of uptick as that happens. I think expect strong momentum in 2014 off of the 2013 console launch.

Christopher Rolland
SVP, FBR

Okay, great. Thank you. If you look at PC processors in, let's say, 2012, you guys were down. Last year, you guys were about break even on an operating profit basis. Even though you guys have PC units down, how are you looking at profitability for that PC processor division in terms of operating profit for 2014?

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Well, clearly, Chris, our focus is to continue on the next phase of this multi-year strategy we laid out 2 years ago. In 2014, our next goal is to drive full-year revenue growth and profitability at the net income level for the full year. As we look at that, we think it's a combination of our expansion into new growth markets like embedded, professional graphics, semi-custom, low-power client, et cetera, dense server. Also it's about the opportunities we see in the PC market. We believe the PC market will continue to be down in 2014. We see an opportunity for us to continue to move in areas where we're underrepresented. Historically, we've dominated that lower entry point of consumer notebook.

Where we see opportunities to continue to build on the momentum we've seen in the revenue of the desktop channel, continue to expand into the commercial client segment. These are 2 key areas where we can provide leadership. We have been underrepresented in the past. These will give us an opportunity to expand. They're also areas that tend to have better growth performance than consumer notebook, because clearly, consumer notebook in the entry space has been affected by the tablet. That commercial area and desktop has been stronger and more resilient. We think that as we mix up the stack will continue to give us opportunity to produce profitability.

In terms of A8 and A10s, it was a record quarter, in terms of A8s and A10s up the stack, which is a perfect example of what we're trying to do and why we saw the expansion on ASPs.

Devinder Kumar
SVP and CFO, AMD

Yeah, I can add, on top of that, Rory talked about the product and the business execution. From a financial standpoint, our business is in the midst of a transformation, and our focus is that each standalone business has to be profitable, and we will adjust resources and assets from time to time. That's why you have seen, even in the Computing Solutions business, despite the fact that they were down from a revenue standpoint over the quarters, essentially, for that segment, we were close to breakeven, and that's the way we're going to manage in 2014 as we go forward.

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Great. Thanks. Thanks for that extra color, Devinder.

Devinder Kumar
SVP and CFO, AMD

Welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Our next phone question will come from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Sanford C. Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Stacy Rasgon
Senior Analyst, Sanford C. Bernstein

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to dig in a little bit first into the cash balance. For this quarter, you were at $1.2, but you didn't take about $190 million in wafers you were due, and you also cut your CapEx versus your guidance, which would have dropped you well below $1 billion had all that come through. You're dropping, I guess, your optimal target and your minimum target, and you're sort of attributing that to a better outlook on the business. How can we read that as anything other than cash balances are coming in lower than what you thought, and so you're guiding down your targets in order to adjust to that reality? What's the confidence that we have on the cash balance going forward?

Devinder Kumar
SVP and CFO, AMD

Stacy, I think if you look at it from the standpoint of where you started, first of all, with the lower wafer purchases in Q4, taking those wafers in Q4, the cash would have been paid in Q1 would not affected the Q4 cash balance. That's where we ended up from a Q4 standpoint of the $1.2 billion. And I know you're familiar with the GlobalFoundries piece of it. We had $200 million due to GlobalFoundries in Q1 2014, and that money has been paid. And our business model has transformed with more predictability of revenue, as I said in my prepared remarks, in particular with the semi-custom game console business. Therefore, I'm very comfortable from a viewpoint of resetting the cash balance to the $1 billion for the optimal range and $600 million minimum.

On top of that, as you probably read, we closed a secured revolver line of credit, what we call the ABL, in Q4, of which we have $500 million available. When you take our cash balances at the end of Q4 2013, look forward to our profitability on the full-year basis for 2014. I'm confident we can be free cash flow positive for the year, despite having paid the $200 million to GlobalFoundries, which we did in the early part of January.

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Stacy, if you take a look what a difference a year makes, at the end of 2012, our cash balance is basically exactly the same one year later at the end of 2013, in arguably, probably the most difficult PC market in history. And I think we executed the plans that we laid out quarter by quarter to deliver that, and now we're moving into the next phase, which we continue to accelerate our business based on the new products we've identified, the new growth markets. That's our objective to deliver free cash flow positive for 2014 as we deliver net income positive for the full year and revenue growth for the full year.

Stacy Rasgon
Senior Analyst, Sanford C. Bernstein

Got it. That's helpful. For my follow-up, I wanted to just verify something on the GlobalFoundries. I guess it looks like they forgave some of the commitment. You said there were no penalties from the reduction. Does that mean there are no penalties, there weren't any, and there won't be any forthcoming? Are you negotiating that as part of the 2014? The last time you couldn't take the wafers, you wound up still paying for them. You just had a little more time to pay for them. Are we basically done with the 2013 commitment at this point?

Devinder Kumar
SVP and CFO, AMD

The 2013 WSA is completed. There are no associated penalties with the reduced wafers we took in Q4.

Stacy Rasgon
Senior Analyst, Sanford C. Bernstein

Got it. Now it's all about 2014. Okay. Thank you guys. Appreciate it.

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, sir. It looks like our next question in queue will come from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 13

Hi, this is Andrew Pescod dialing in from John Pitzer. I had a quick question about your seasonality commentary for Computing Solutions. You said Q1 2014 revenue is expected to be down, partially being driven by seasonality of Computing Solutions. Do you view seasonality as down mid-single digit for that particular business?

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

You said on the compute business, is that what you were saying?

Speaker 13

Computing Solutions business.

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Our view is that we see seasonality in line in Q1. I think that's good improvement from what we've seen over the past several quarters as we move through this transition. We're looking for our compute business to deliver at seasonal trends, historical trends in Q1. If you remember, I said in the last earnings call that we weren't going to lean into Q4. We took that opportunity to prepare and control and burn down inventory, as well as position us for 2014. I think what you're going to see based on our guidance is that compute will fall back into line with the historical trends.

Speaker 13

Yes. Sorry.

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

I think that's good improvement.

Speaker 13

Yeah. I think I wasn't clear with my question. I just wanted to get a better sense of how you view seasonality of your Computing Solutions for 1Q. I guess, is that somewhat like down mid-single digit quarter-over-quarter? I just want to get how you view seasonality for that particular business.

Lisa Su
SVP and General Manager of Global Business Units, AMD

Yeah. It varies from year to year, but let's say around 7%, 8%, or so.

Speaker 13

Okay, got it. As my follow-up, you said you expect revenue to be up year-over-year in 2014. Do you expect both business segments to perform? If so, do you expect one particular business segment to outperform the other?

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

We're in the transformation year of a multi-year transformation. We've given the guidance for the quarter, and we'll lay that out. We do see an opportunity for us to deliver revenue growth for the full year, and that net income profitability for the full year. Generally, we do not break that out at this point as we move through this transformation.

Speaker 13

Okay, got it. Thank you very much.

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Thanks, sir.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question in our queue will come from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura. Please go ahead. Your questions, please.

Romit Shah
Analyst, Nomura

Yeah. Thanks so much, guys. Rory, I realize it's January, but I was hoping to get some more color on the revenue target for 2014. Being that the street's modeling north of 15% growth, I think we're hoping for a little bit more color. Are you thinking more single-digit growth, or are you a little bit more optimistic than that?

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Yeah. From my perspective, I think as we've gone through a very difficult and unprecedented 2013 from a market perspective, I continue to believe the PC market will be down in 2014 a similar amount. As we discussed in our last call, we're basing our plannings on that assumption. We see some parts of the market stabilizing, for sure, in this early part of the year. As we've got to CES, we got kind of a mixed story there. I think that from our perspective, we're going to manage our business to that 10% base assumption. If we do see upside, we're going to take advantage of it. Given we're in this very unpredictable stage of the market, and we're also in this transformation, I think it's prudent for us to give the guidance quarter by quarter as we move through this transformation.

We've shown our ability to deliver and execute quarter by quarter, I think what we're saying is we see the opportunity to drive that revenue growth for the year. Let's get a couple more quarters under the belt. We'll lay that out as the year goes on and see how the industry begins to unfold, we'll lay out the year as we go. I think that's the prudent way to handle it.

Romit Shah
Analyst, Nomura

Yeah, I agree. On PCs, which subsegments, would you say are showing the highest degree of stabilization today?

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Well, I think there's an early part to that. I think there's no doubt that the XP expiration has driven some activity in the commercial segment. It's one of the reasons Lisa and John Byrne and their teams have targeted the opportunity. You're going to see a substantial increase in the number of SKUs that we have, the number of models that we have in the commercial segment. I think that's done better over the past several quarters. I think it will continue to do better. I think the component channel has continued to do well. The area that's been the most difficult and obviously most affected by the tablet migration has been entry-level consumer notebook, and clearly, we were way over-indexed in that space.

Part of our strategy, diversify to the high-growth market, and within the traditional market, diversify into the segments within that PC market where we see future growth. Lisa, you want to add anything else to that?

Lisa Su
SVP and General Manager of Global Business Units, AMD

No, I think that covers it.

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Great.

Romit Shah
Analyst, Nomura

All right. Thank you very much.

Ruth Cotter
VP of Investor Relations, AMD

Operator, we'll take two more questioners, please.

Operator

Understood, ma'am. Our next phone question will come from the line of Patrick Wang with Evercore. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Patrick Wang
Analyst, Evercore

Great. Thanks a lot. For my first question, I want to see if you could talk a bit more about the semi-custom business console. Lots of moving pieces out there, a very strong ramp through the first couple of months here. How do you see the inventory situation? How much more demand do you think there is? I know you talked about expectations for growth year-over-year, but can you just help us kind of frame some of your expectations there?

Lisa Su
SVP and General Manager of Global Business Units, AMD

Yeah, Patrick. Let me try to give you some color on that. From everything that we see, the semi-custom launch has been very successful, very strong uptake both in sell in as well as sell through inventory. Of course, you'll see more of that from our customer data. From the visibility that we see into 2014, we see also strong uptake. Usually, as you know, these consoles tend to increase in numbers of units through the third and fourth year of console launch. We see 2014 as a strong year for the overall game console market and both the Sony and the Microsoft consoles.

Patrick Wang
Analyst, Evercore

Just referring to that, can you talk a little bit about the profitability? I think 2 quarters ago, you guys set a lower operating margin target there. How's the progress on that going? How should we think about ASPs trending over the next, I don't know, 1-2 years as NRE comes off?

Devinder Kumar
SVP and CFO, AMD

Yeah, 2 parts. I think the operating margin, you're right, we had given at the Q3 timeframe when we were just starting to ship the product, margin guidance in the low double digits. It came in at the teens, as I said, for Q3, and in Q4, really, we continued to improve. Over time, we believe that we can continue to increase the operating margin within that business. That obviously benefits the operating margin of that business and the company. As you can see, the evidence, if you go look at the GVS segment results for this particular quarter, Q4, at the $865 million revenue, we had about 14% operating margin, and that's really good.

I'm not going to provide granularity of the operating margin for that particular part of the business on a go-forward standpoint, but more looking at the operating margin trajectory between the businesses on the Computing Solutions on the 1 hand, and GVS, the Graphics and Visual Solutions on the other.

Lisa Su
SVP and General Manager of Global Business Units, AMD

Patrick, on your question on ASPs and that trend, I think what I'll say is that the ASP reductions are well understood, and they're in our model. With that, as Devinder said, we still expect over time to be able to improve the operating margins based on the execution of the products.

Patrick Wang
Analyst, Evercore

All right. I'd like to squeeze in one last question just on the dense server business. It's probably my favorite one that you guys have. Could you talk a little bit about your go-to-market strategy, I guess. Do you think that you're going to see an uptake from OEMs first? Do you expect early success with direct cloud customers? Just any sense of any color you could give on pace of penetration, things like that?

Lisa Su
SVP and General Manager of Global Business Units, AMD

Sure. Let me try to do that. In the dense server business, last quarter, we announced Verizon as our first mega data center win with our SeaMicro, that was a big deal. We see that as really a cloud customer going forward. As we look forward, our dense server business has both chip and system sales. I think on the system side, you'll see more of the cloud customers, and there's certainly a number of trials in progress. On the chip side, we're seeing interest from both traditional OEMs as they expand their dense server focus, as well as cloud customers and others looking to expand into the data center. I would say on the chip business, it's more mixed. On the system business, we are very focused on those newer workloads.

Patrick Wang
Analyst, Evercore

Got you. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you, sir. We do have time for one final questioner. Our final question for today will come from the line of Srini Pajjuri with CLSA Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Srini Pajjuri
Analyst, CLSA Securities

Thank you. Just one clarification, Devinder. Given your guidance, you're guiding at, I guess, PC down seasonally, and that which I think implies graphics to be down about 20% or so. I would have thought gross margins would improve a bit just given the gross margin profile. I'm just wondering why they're not improving, and then as the business rebounds in Q2 and Q3, how should we think about gross margins? Thank you.

Devinder Kumar
SVP and CFO, AMD

I think, if you look at it from the viewpoint of the Computing Solutions where we said down in line with seasonality, and Lisa mentioned earlier the 8%. On the graphics side, it's really a combination of the businesses within graphics and then obviously the semi-custom business that obviously is going well from where we executed in Q4 and our customers continue to do well even in Q1. The mix of the revenue obviously is going to lead to that 16% down guidance that we gave, and that's where the gross margin comes out, given the mix of within the Computing Solutions and the graphics on the discrete basis and the semi-custom business.

Srini Pajjuri
Analyst, CLSA Securities

Given that semi-custom is lower gross margin, my question is, as the business comes back in Q2 or Q3, is there further downside to your 35% forecast?

Devinder Kumar
SVP and CFO, AMD

I'm not going to go further out in the year because it's really going to depend then when you get into the later part of 2014, how our growth businesses do, how the semi-custom business evolves, given the launches that our customers are going to do in other parts of the world. Finally, obviously, on the PC market, we have the transition going on. We are in the midst of a transformation. Our business model is evolving. We've done, as you probably have tracked us the last few quarters, giving the guidance for the gross margin and meeting the gross margin guidance. In Q1, the gross margin is 35%, and we're going to continue to manage that as we go through the year in 2014.

Srini Pajjuri
Analyst, CLSA Securities

Thank you.

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

It's clear that we've been on this multi-year journey and clearly focused on positioning ourselves for this turn. I think 2013 is going to be remembered as a significant turning point in our history as we define this multi-year transformation to create a stronger and more profitable AMD. As we look forward, I think you're seeing us target those segments that are going to have growth, look for those areas where we can expand our ASP, where we have opportunity to get new business, and to choose those businesses that are going to produce the profitability long term. Additionally, we'll manage the operating expense to deliver that, and you need to look at this as a body of work over the next two years. We've done the first two years.

Think about where we were just a year ago and where we are today, and think about where we can get to this year because the next goal is growing the revenue for the full year and net profitability and net income for the full year. Then by the end of 2015, 50% of our business comes from the new growth segment. That's a different AMD, and that's how we'll manage quarter by quarter, step by step through this strategy.

Srini Pajjuri
Analyst, CLSA Securities

Thank you.

Rory Read
President and CEO, AMD

Thank you, operator. This concludes the call.

Operator

Thank you, presenters, and thank you, ladies and gentlemen. Again, this does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day. Attendees, you may now disconnect.