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Earnings Call: Q2 2019

Jul 30, 2019

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Q2 2019 AMETEK Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will follow at that time. If you require operator assistance during the program, please press star then zero on your touchtone telephone. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce here on today's conference call Mr. Kevin Coleman, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Kevin Coleman
VP of Investor Relations, AMETEK

Great. Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for AMETEK's second quarter 2019 earnings conference call. With me today are Dave Zapico, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Bill Burke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. AMETEK's second quarter results were released earlier this morning and are available on market systems and in the investor section of our website. This call is also being webcasted, can be accessed on our website. The webcast will be archived and made available on our site later today. During the course of today's call, we will make forward-looking statements which are subject to change based on various risk factors and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ significantly from expectations. A detailed discussion of the risk and uncertainties that may affect our future results is contained in AMETEK's filing with the SEC.

AMETEK disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Also, any references made on this call to 2018 or 2019 results will be on an adjusted basis, excluding after-tax acquisition-related intangible amortization and excluding the fourth quarter 2018 gains related to the finalization of the impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Reconciliations between GAAP and adjusted measures can be found in our press release and on the investor section of our website. We'll begin today with prepared remarks by Dave and Bill, and then open up for the questions. I'll now turn the meeting to Dave.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. AMETEK had an excellent second quarter. We exceeded earnings guidance on solid organic sales growth, contributions from acquisitions, and exceptional operating performance. In the process, we delivered a record level of sales, EBITDA, operating income, and adjusted diluted earnings per share. We also delivered impressive growth on operating cash flow in the quarter. Given these strong results and our outlook for the back half of the year, we have again increased our full-year earnings guidance range. These results continue to highlight the strength of the AMETEK growth model and our ability to deliver strong and consistent performance for our shareholders. On to the financial highlights for the quarter. Total sales were a record $1.29 billion, up 7% compared to the second quarter of 2018. Organic sales growth was solid at 3%, acquisitions added 5%, foreign currency was a one-point headwind.

EBITDA in the second quarter was a record $349 million, up 10% over the same period in 2018. EBITDA margins were excellent at 27%. Operating income was a record at $295.4 million, a 9% increase over the second quarter of 2018. Reported operating income margins were up 60 basis points to 22.9%. Excluding the dilutive impact of acquisitions, operating margins increased an impressive 110 basis points over the prior year period. This exceptional operating performance reflects the strength of our operational excellence initiatives. Earnings were a record $1.05 per diluted share, up 14% over the prior year, and exceeding our guidance range of $1 to $1.02 per diluted share. Lastly, operating cash flow was superb in the quarter, up 21% to $246 million. Now on to the individual operating groups. First, the Electronic Instruments Group.

EIG's second quarter sales were $820.2 million, up 10% over last year's second quarter. Recent acquisitions contributed 8%, organic sales were up 3%, and foreign currency was a one-point headwind. Our materials analysis business delivered another very solid quarter. Their high-end analytical instrumentation solutions, including several new product introductions, are helping our customers solve increasingly complex challenges in attractive growth markets. Our aerospace businesses also performed nicely, as demand remains very solid across the aerospace and defense markets. In addition to the strong top-line growth, EIG delivered outstanding operating performance in the second quarter. Operating income increased 10% to $212.9 million, with reported operating income margins of 26%. Excluding the dilutive impact of acquisitions, EIG's margins expanded 90 basis points over the prior year. The Electromechanical Group also had a strong quarter, with solid organic sales and impressive operating performance.

Second quarter sales for EMG were $469.2 million, up 1% over the same period in 2018. EMG's organic sales growth was 3%, and foreign currency a two-point headwind. EMG's operating performance was excellent, with operating income a record $101.1 million, up 7% over the prior year's second quarter. Operating margins for EMG increased sharply to 21.5%, up 120 basis points over the same period last year. AMETEK's results in the second quarter and through the first half of the year were excellent. We are firmly positioned for another year with strong growth and record results. Our highly differentiated businesses continue to execute the AMETEK growth model, driving long-term sustainable value for our shareholders. I'd like to highlight some of our business' recent accomplishments, and then I'll touch on our updated outlook and guidance for the remainder of the year.

First, I would like to congratulate the team at Creaform for recently winning two Red Dot awards for innovative product design of their HandySCAN Black and Go!SCAN SPARK metrology products. Launched in April, both new 3D scanners were designed with enhanced features and a sleek, new ergonomic design. Now in its third generation, the HandySCAN Black has been optimized to meet the needs of design, manufacturing, and metrology professionals looking for the most effective and reliable way to acquire accurate 3D measurements of physical objects. The HandySCAN Black provides highly accurate and repeatable results, even in difficult environments and with complex surfaces. The Go!SCAN SPARK offers the fastest and most friendly 3D scanning experience on the market. Designed to scan any object without need for setup, it offers flawless texture and geometry acquisition, as well as impressive details in a rich color palette.

The Red Dot Award is a world-renowned competition that is used to identify the most innovative new products across several product categories. I'd also like to congratulate our Dunkermotoren business for winning the Maschinenmarkt Best of Industry Award for their VG95D Pro Servo Motor solution. Dunkermotoren is a global leader in advanced motion control solutions, serving a broad set of end markets, including medical, laboratory, factory automation, and motive applications. Their VG95D Pro sets the standard in integrated servo motors with improved flexibility, functionality, precision, and operational reliability. The Red Dot and Best of Industry Awards, and the success of these new products, are testaments to the strength of our new product development teams. Congratulations to everyone at Creaform and Dunkermotoren for these outstanding recognitions. We remain committed to investing in our research and development efforts to provide leading-edge innovative products and technologies to our customers.

In 2019, we expect to spend approximately $260 million on RD&E, up 13% over last year's level, and we are seeing excellent results as our new product vitality index was a very strong 25% in the quarter. Now shifting to operational excellence. Our operational excellence tools are adding significant value for our businesses. We continue to drive efficiency improvements across our operation to enhance our profitability and improve cash flow, as was evident in our operating performance during the second quarter. For all of 2019, we now expect approximately $85 million in savings from our operational excellence initiatives, with the majority of these savings generated from material sourcing. This is an increase from our previous estimate of $80 million in annual savings. Finally, we remain very active, yet disciplined in our acquisition efforts. Our business development teams continue to manage a strong pipeline of acquisition opportunities.

AMETEK remains focused on deploying our strong free cash flow on value-enhancing acquisitions. I'll now move to the updated earnings guidance for 2019. Given our performance in the second quarter and our near-record backlog, we now expect 2019 earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $4.04-$4.10, up 10%-12% over 2018 earnings. This new guidance range is increased from our previous guidance range of $3.98-$4.08 per diluted share. We continue to expect overall sales for the year to be up high single digits, with organic sales up 3%-5%. Overall sales in the third quarter are expected to be up high single digits. Earnings for the third quarter are anticipated to be in the range of $1.00-$1.02 per diluted share, up 10%-12% over the prior year period. To summarize, we are pleased with our second quarter results.

We remain focused on driving continued growth through the end of the year and well into the future. Our business' market-leading differentiated technologies and their execution of the AMETEK growth model are driving strong results for our stakeholders. I will now turn it over to Bill Burke, who will cover some of the financial details of the quarter, then we'll be glad to take your questions. Bill?

Bill Burke
EVP and CFO, AMETEK

Thank you, Dave. As Dave noted, AMETEK had an excellent second quarter, capping off the first half of the year with record results. Let me provide some additional financial highlights for the quarter. Core selling expense in the second quarter was roughly in line with last year's second quarter. Second quarter general and administrative expenses were up slightly over the same period in 2018, and as a percentage of sales were 1.4% versus last year's level of 1.5%. The effective tax rate in the quarter was 20.4%, down from last year's second quarter tax rate of 21.9%. For 2019, we now expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 21%, and as we've stated in the past, actual quarterly tax rates can differ dramatically, either positively or negatively, from this full year estimated rate.

Working capital was 18.3% in the second quarter, essentially unchanged from the first quarter. Capital expenditures were $22 million in the quarter, and for the full year of 2019, we continue to expect capital expenditures to be approximately $100 million or 1.9% of sales. Depreciation and amortization expense in the quarter was $57 million. For the full year, we continue to expect depreciation and amortization to be approximately $235 million, including acquisition-related intangible amortization of approximately $130 million or $0.43 per diluted share. Our businesses continue to generate very strong levels of cash flow. Second quarter operating cash flow was $246 million, up 21% over last year's second quarter, and free cash flow was $224 million, up 20% over last year. As a percentage of net income, free cash flow conversion was 104%, and we continue to expect full-year free cash flow conversion of approximately 110% of net income.

The primary use of our strong free cash flow is to support our acquisition efforts. As Dave has noted, our pipeline remains healthy, and we have significant financial flexibility to continue our acquisition strategy. Total debt at the end of the second quarter was $2.47 billion, down from $2.63 billion at the end of 2018. Offsetting this debt is cash and cash equivalents of $568 million, resulting in a net debt to EBITDA ratio as of June 30th of 1.4 times. We remain well-positioned to support our growth initiatives with approximately $2 billion of cash in existing credit facilities. To conclude, our business has delivered outstanding performance with high-quality results in the second quarter. Our outlook remains positive through the back half of 2019, given our strong balance sheet and excellent cash flows. Kevin?

Kevin Coleman
VP of Investor Relations, AMETEK

Great. Thank you, Bill. Kevin, could we please open the lines for questions?

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press the star, then the one key on your touchtone telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press the pound key. Our first question comes from Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.

Matt Summerville
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Thanks. Couple of questions. First, can you give us a little color on where incoming order rates organically were for the total company and by business? Also just given the macro choppiness out there, can you talk about what sort of linearity you saw during the quarter and what you're seeing thus far in your business in July?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Sure, Matt. In terms of orders, Q2 orders were up 4%. Organic orders were flat. They were very slightly positive. In our EIG business, the order rates were in line with the organic sales growth in the quarter. The EMG orders were down a bit. We had some delays in our automation and engineered solution businesses. We ended the quarter with a near record backlog of $1.7 billion. In terms of the order patterns and sales patterns during the quarter, they followed a similar trend. May was a bit better than April. June was a bit better than May, which is very typical for our business. The growth each month as it stepped up was more subdued than past quarters. Pretty typical, a little less of a ramp.

Matt Summerville
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

As a follow-up, where were you in the quarter on price versus inflation? Thank you.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Sure, Matt. Sure. Q2 was much like the second half of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. We had an excellent quarter. We achieved two points of price across our entire portfolio. Total inflation, the impact of tariffs was a bit less than 1.5%, we had a positive spread, and we're very pleased with the results. As you know, the results speak to the highly differentiated nature of AMETEK's product portfolio. We have leadership positions in niche markets around the globe, and we really have some focus and determination to make sure we stay in front of a changing global environment. We're very pleased with the results.

Matt Summerville
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Thank you, Dave.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Thank you, Matt.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Thanks. Good morning. I thought it may be a good time to perhaps run through the end markets and the geographies in a bit more detail.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Right. Sure thing, Nigel. On our market segment commentary, I'll start with our process businesses. They had another excellent quarter with overall sales up low teens on a percentage basis, driven by mid-single-digit organic sales growth and contributions from the acquisitions of Forza, Telular, and Spectro Scientific. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, our materials analysis business had a particularly strong organic growth quarter, driven by solid new product introductions and solid demand for their high-end instrumentation. For all of '19, we continue to expect process organic sales to be up mid-single digits. Switch to aerospace. Our aerospace and defense businesses delivered another excellent quarter with high single-digit organic sales growth. This growth reflects the attractive positions we have across a diverse set of aerospace and defense platforms. Similar to the first quarter, growth in the second quarter was broad-based across our various aerospace markets.

Bill Burke
EVP and CFO, AMETEK

We had notable strength in our commercial OEM and third-party MRO businesses. Given the solid start to the year, we're increasing our expectations for aerospace and now expect mid to high single-digit organic sales growth for all of 2019.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

With balanced growth across each market. Our power and industrial segments in the second quarter, sales were up low single digits, driven by the contribution from the recent acquisition of Motec. Organic sales were down slightly in the quarter and in line with our expectations. For all of 2019, we continue to expect low to mid-single-digit organic sales growth, given the strength of our backlog and solid order patterns in these businesses. Finally, sales of our automation and engineered solutions businesses were up low single digits for the second quarter against a difficult prior year comp. For all of 2019, we now expect low to mid-single-digit organic sales growth for automation and engineered solutions, and we are seeing some order delays in certain businesses. We lowered that automation and engineered solutions segment from mid to low to mid, and we increased our aerospace guide a bit also.

Just summarize the whole thing, for the continuing expect overall full-year organic sales growth of 3%-5%. As I said, we've modestly increased growth forecast for aerospace while modestly decreasing our growth forecast for automation and engineered solutions, and really no change to process and industrial. Process performed very well in the quarter, and they look strong.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Great. Thanks, Dave. Maybe if you just touch on what you're seeing in China.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Perhaps just address the 3% to 5% organic implies some acceleration in the back half of the year to get to the high end of that range. What gives you confidence that can accelerate on tougher comps in the back half of the year?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah, sure.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Thanks so much.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Right. Yeah, we had overall sales ended up within our guidance range. Organic sales ended up within our guidance range. At the half year, we are at 4%, so right smack dab middle in our guide. In terms of geography, we saw some solid growth across Europe and the U.S. Asia was down mid-single digits. You really have about 80% of our business up mid-single digits. Asia, which is about 18% of our business, was down mid-single digits. We see in the U.S., where we were up mid-single digits, the strongest growth was at process and our aerospace businesses. In Europe, where we were up mid-single digits, we had broad-based growth in oil and gas. Aerospace had particularly strong quarters. Asia was down mid-single digits, and China was down a bit more than mid-single digits.

We had some down a bit more after two plus years of very strong growth. It's about 7% of our sales, and clearly, they're being impacted by the number 1 and number 2 economies in a trade war. We're watching that closely, but given its relative size, it hasn't been too much of a headwind yet.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Thanks, Dave.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi, good morning, guys.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Good morning.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I guess, just to follow up on the last question, thinking about some of the end markets that are doing better or ones that have gotten a little softer. Dave, I think, is it a fair characterization to say some of the longer cycle stuff, aerospace, process, is really what gives you the visibility and the guide, and that confidence in the second half. The shorter cycle end markets and automation are, I guess, what's holding you back but could also turn quickly. Is that a fair characterization as a starting point?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah, I'd say that's a fair characterization. In our automation businesses, we're dealing with OEM customers, and they delay placing orders in the quarter. We didn't lose these orders. They're delayed, and they're cautious, but there's a healthy order pipeline. I would say that's a good characterization, which we have strength in aerospace and solid with process and some weakness in automation. That's a good summary.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I think in the automation space, a lot of folks in that orbit have called out auto and electronics as being kind of the two biggest headwinds. Is that safe to say it's the same end markets for you guys, or is there something else that's cropped up within that?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah, I would say we have some Motec customers there, and that was weaker. There was also some factory automation customers that was weaker. To balance that, there's some medical and food industry automation that were okay. Those are OEM customers, and the Motec and the factory automation were the areas that it was a bit light.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Just one last one for me. Obviously, with the string of acquisitions over the last couple of years, a bit more diversity in the portfolio and some deeper niches. How have those performed or have you even noticed a change in the growth rates or performance as some of the macro has gotten a bit choppier?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah. One of the characteristics of the acquisitions we did over the past two years were they were largely U.S.-based. They've held up very well. The acquisitions are performing extremely well, and they're meeting their acquisition models, and it's driving the performance of the company, as you can see in the results.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks. I'll leave it there.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Thanks, Josh.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Go ahead, Andrew.

Andrew Obin
Analyst, Bank of America

Good morning. Just a question. Did I hear correctly that China was down in the quarter? I apologize if I missed it.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yes. What we went through the geographies were up in the U.S., mid-single digits, down in Europe, mid-single digits. Oh, excuse me. Up in U.S., up in Europe, mid-single digits, down in Asia, mid-single digits. China was down a bit more than Asia.

Andrew Obin
Analyst, Bank of America

Right. The question in China, I'm just wondering, could you just walk us what happened in the quarter in China? My sense was that the Chinese business, very nichey, you have a lot of growth initiatives there. Just trying to get a sense, when did it turn in the quarter? If you have the granularity on the call.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

China's been very choppy and inconsistent through the balance of this year. It was mainly in our automation business where we saw weakness, in China, it was more broad-based. A lot of the businesses were down a bit. Again, it was a difficult comp, I think they're just dealing with the uncertainty in a trade war, we've been watching it closely, it's 7% of our business. Fortunately, we have about 80% of our business growing mid-single digits. It's been inconsistent. That's the best way to describe it, Andrew.

Andrew Obin
Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah, no, of course. Just a broader question, I think others have tried to sort of get to the question. If I look at your peers, most of them actually did cut organic growth outlook. If I look at the historical relationship between your revenue growth and industrial production, your guidance does imply that things are different. You did highlight more North American acquisitions over the past couple of years, but could you also talk about the impact of the growth initiatives? I know, Dave, when we meet with AMETEK folks, they're really highlighting how you're pivoting more to growth. Any way you can quantify what the growth initiatives doing to cyclicality or the growth profile of AMETEK, that would be terrific. Thank you.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah, sure. When I think about our portfolio, we had the U.S.-based acquisitions over the past year, but we also have about 13% of our business now is healthcare, and our aerospace business is performing well. Those are all things that are driving us right now. We definitely have improved our organic growth capability. We're making great progress, as you saw when you visited some of our operations. The teams are excited, we're seeing positive results. I don't think that it's very difficult to quantify that. We're using the tools, the way we've talked about it is through the cycle, we'll get one point better of organic growth. I'm not sure in the current environment, you can draw a distinction between what we've done in organic growth and the current results.

Andrew Obin
Analyst, Bank of America

Terrific. Thank you very much.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Thank you, Andrew.

Operator

Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Hello, Deane.

Deane Dray
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Hey, maybe we can start with price costs in the quarter. How did that play out and expectations for the second half, and what role tariffs had?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Right. Yeah, I think I'll start with the tariffs. As you know, we're comprised of niche differentiated businesses, and we have low CapEx by design. Our model gives us a lot of flexibility in dealing with those situations. In Q2, the situation played out as we predicted. We had about $0.01 from the direct impact of tariffs, and we offset that completely with price. We're expecting a similar level of activity in the second half of the year. Going back to the price question, Q2 2019 was much like the second half of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. We had an excellent quarter. We achieved 2% of price across our entire business. That's both in EIG and EMG. Total inflation and the impact of tariffs added together was a bit less than 1.5%.

We had a good contribution to margin from our price, less total inflation and tariffs, and we're very pleased with the results.

Deane Dray
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

That's all great to hear. Then in the verticals, in the end markets, I hear you comment on oil and gas. How did that put?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah, we didn't comment. Oil and gas had a particularly strong quarter in Europe, and we include the Middle East and Europe. When you look at the whole segment, it was up 10% in Q2. Good, strong organic growth in both our upstream and mid and downstream businesses, and we were pleased with the performance.

Deane Dray
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Good. On the opening question, with Matt, I might have missed the answer. He asked about how July had looked.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah, we covered the quarter. We talked about the quarter being, it increased each month, but it was more subdued for us. In July, we're right on our plan. July isn't over, but we're on target, so July feels pretty good.

Deane Dray
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

All good to hear. Thank you.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Thank you, Deane.

Operator

Our next question comes from Robert McCarthy with Stephens.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Hello, Rob. Can you hear me?

Robert McCarthy
Analyst, Stephens

Yes. Thanks for the time. Congratulations on a good quarter. I guess the first question I would have is around your incremental margins on a core basis, could you talk through that, just excluding acquisition, and some of the distortions we might see there?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

We're very pleased with our margin performance in the quarter. Our core margins were excellent. The EIG, if you take out the acquisitions, it was up 90 basis points, and EMG, where there wasn't acquisitions, was up 120 basis points. Just outstanding margins, outstanding operating performance, and it showed up in the incrementals also. We had core incrementals of about 60%. EIG was about 50%, and EMG was about 70%. Excellent operating performance around the board.

Robert McCarthy
Analyst, Stephens

Definitely. Could you speak, just stepping back, on the performance on the cash cycle and cash generation in more of your aerospace and, well, you probably have very little explicit defense exposure, but your aerospace and longer cycle businesses in terms of how you do there, in terms of free cash flow conversion or operating cash flow typically? Is that below or above the company average?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

The aerospace business is a great cash generator for us. I would say in terms of the various components of working capital, aerospace ends up being a little higher as a percentage of sales because they're dealing with the aftermarket. They're higher margin businesses. You have higher working capital, but higher margins, and that's characteristic of the aerospace business, and it's been that way for a long time.

Robert McCarthy
Analyst, Stephens

Yeah. It's nice to have good cash generation there.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

It is.

Robert McCarthy
Analyst, Stephens

The final question is, just looking at the environment you're seeing right now, obviously you went through a kind of a rocky road in kind of the 2014 to 2016 timeframe with deflation, oil and gas kind of contraction, and it led to some challenging organic growth and also some restructuring, right? Do you think we're going to anticipate, given what we're seeing right now, over the next 12 to 18 months, incremental restructuring from you guys?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

AMETEK, in our various businesses, we're always doing some level of restructuring, and those are reported in the operating results. In terms of a big restructuring, a realignment activity that affected the entire company, right now, we're not seeing that. We're pretty confident around that second half of the year. If things change, we're good at doing it, and we have plenty of opportunities to drive cost reduction. As I sit here with a solid group of businesses generating cash flow, margin expansion, with a robust backlog of deals, with a strong balance sheet, I feel very optimistic about AMETEK's performance and being able to outperform in the current environment.

Robert McCarthy
Analyst, Stephens

Thanks for your time.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brett Linzey with Vertical Research.

Brett Linzey
Analyst, Vertical Research Partners

Hey, good morning, guys.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Morning, Brett.

Brett Linzey
Analyst, Vertical Research Partners

Hey, just a question pertaining to some of the recent portfolio moves, and in recent, I mean 2017, 2018 acquisitions. If we were to drill down and look at the recurring element or the aftermarket element as a % of sales of those businesses, how does that mix look of those acquired assets versus the legacy portfolio? Are you actually mixing up with the stickier revenue base?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yes, we are mixing up, and when we announced those deals, we addressed the recurring revenue. Telular stands out. It's about two-thirds of the business is recurring, but many of the businesses, like the Spectro Scientific was 30, 40%. We're mixing up and recurring baseline of AMETEK was about 20%, but our recent acquisitions have been a bit more than that.

Brett Linzey
Analyst, Vertical Research Partners

Okay, great. If we continue to see this industrial slowdown historically, you've talked about incrementals on the way up of 30% to 35%. If we flip that script and think about potential downside, what type of decremental preservation do you see if we get into an environment where sales are declining modestly? I guess the follow on there, are there any countermeasure plans in place that can help you get at cost relatively quickly if things do turn a little bit south here?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Right. Yeah, as you know, we have high contribution margins in our business, very profitable businesses. We also have excellent operating capability. We have seasoned general managers that know how to operate both in up cycles and down cycles. Clearly, going into a down cycle, we have plenty of opportunities and plenty of projects. We have the ability to pull those forward. We're also very good at managing our working capital. We generate a lot of cash. If we get into that environment, it's an environment where we're experienced and we'll perform well on a relative basis. Right at this point, we're not seeing that.

Brett Linzey
Analyst, Vertical Research Partners

Based on some of those actions or what's been in motion, do you think you can preserve a decremental margin much less than 30%?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah, I think definitely, but again, when something like that happens, it depends where it comes from.

Bill Burke
EVP and CFO, AMETEK

The depth of it.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

The depth of it. It's a good comment, Bill. We have to look at it if that happens, when it comes, and I'm sure there'll be another recession, and I'm sure we'll manage our way through it very well.

Brett Linzey
Analyst, Vertical Research Partners

Okay, great, guys. Thanks.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Thanks, Brett.

Operator

Our next question comes from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

Allison Poliniak
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Hi, guys. Good morning.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Good morning, Allison.

Allison Poliniak
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Just want to follow along on that operational excellence kind of theme. You did increase your operational excellence savings for 2019. Was it just sort of a natural fallout of where some of these programs are ending, or is it some acceleration in certain areas?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

We're seeing acceleration. At the beginning of the year, we had about $80 million of operational excellence savings, and $60 million of it was from sourcing, and $20 million of it is from other projects that we had. What we're really seeing is an acceleration on that sourcing side. Our sourcing teams are doing an outstanding job, absolutely outstanding job, of dealing with the mitigation of tariffs and moving us to different regions of the world and delivering incremental savings. Really, the incremental savings from sourcing was increased from $60 million to $65 million, and that drove the operational excellence savings increase from $80 million to $85 million. That's savings that are in the P&L for 2019. That's a ratable kind of thing. We saw it ramp up from Q1 to Q2, so we're very confident in the second half of that.

Allison Poliniak
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Great. I may have missed it. The aerospace increase in growth for that sector, was there a specific sub-segment there or a region that's driving that increased growth relative to your expectations?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah. If you look at the business jet market, the business jet market was up low double digits and coming off a pretty easy comp, but it's continuing to perform. The military market, the third-party MRO had a fantastic quarter in the second quarter. The commercial business continues strong. It was really the entire market that did well. If you look into the details, the business jet market ticked up, and we improved the guidance for that for the year.

Allison Poliniak
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Perfect. Thank you.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

The entire aerospace business, we increased to mid to high single digits.

Allison Poliniak
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Great. Thanks so much.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Thanks, Allison.

Operator

Our next question comes from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer.

Christopher Glynn
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Thank you. Good morning.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Morning, Chris.

Christopher Glynn
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Hey, Dave. I think you mentioned $2 billion in cash and available credit. I think it's the first quarter in a little while. You didn't talk about a couple of new bolt-ons. I know they don't come every quarter, just an update. Is the pipeline still very vibrant?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

It is. Chris, we had a record Q4 2018, where we closed three deals and spent about $750 million. Our pipeline is very good, and we're evaluating a number of opportunities. As you know, it's difficult to predict when they're going to happen in the short term. I feel very confident in the long term in our capability in this area, and we have strong balance sheets. We're very optimistic that we're going to be able to deploy our free cash flow on acquisitions in the long term. Right now, we're being disciplined. We're looking at a lot of properties, and when we do a deal, we're going to get you a return on capital.

Christopher Glynn
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Thanks for that. On the outlook, generally calling for continuity versus the macros clearly weakening. I understand you don't have much distribution, you're much more direct, so that's clearly an advantage you have in the current environment. Are we moving into a phase where backlog conversion picks up to kind of preserve that organic continuity? Just want a little more kind of complexion around that.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah. We have a near record backlog of $1.7 billion, which gives us some confidence in the second half. If you look into that backlog, there are some opportunities to convert some of it. That's one of the reasons that we're confident in the guide in the second half. We're performing well. We got our aerospace growth. Our process business is doing well. The U.S. markets doing extremely well, and we got a solid backlog that provides conversion opportunities. That's the way we're looking at it, and we feel good about it.

Christopher Glynn
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Okay, thanks for that.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen.

Joe Giordano
Analyst, Cowen

Hey, guys. Morning.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Hey, Joe.

Joe Giordano
Analyst, Cowen

Hey, Bill, just one quick clarification. The tax rate was a little light in the quarter. Anything specific going on there? I know you gave the full year, but I missed it. What's your view for that?

Bill Burke
EVP and CFO, AMETEK

Full year is now at 21%. What we saw in the quarter was about 150 basis points down year-over-year. Benefits from excess tax benefits from stock compensation, and as well, there was some changes in some state tax laws that helped us drive that rate down to 20.4% in the second quarter.

Joe Giordano
Analyst, Cowen

2021 good forward number to use, like out into the model too?

Bill Burke
EVP and CFO, AMETEK

We're looking at a number that's probably to get to the average of 21% for the year. It's more of 22% in the back half of the year.

Joe Giordano
Analyst, Cowen

I mean more for like a full year going forward, like into 2020 is like a 21 a fair number to use?

Bill Burke
EVP and CFO, AMETEK

Yeah. We'll be working to get to that level next year.

Joe Giordano
Analyst, Cowen

Okay. We've kind of gotten to this a couple times, asked different ways. As top line starts to slow a bit, maybe we're still in the same organic range, maybe we're talking more midpoint or lower. Earlier in the year, maybe we were talking midpoint or higher. Particularly in markets like maybe heavy truck, where there's some obvious declines probably coming up. Are you teeing up anything here to take some actions? Along the same lines, your cost out this year, really strong sourcing, accelerating. What's the opportunity set look like into next year for cost out broadly?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Right. Well, the opportunity set's very good at all times. As part of our strategic planning process we go through with all of our business, they have a three-year plan for cost reductions that involve sourcing and some plan consolidations and everything. We have a viable set of projects to pull from. We really have some opportunities to do that. When you mentioned the trucking market. That business is now less than 2% of sales in the mix-

Joe Giordano
Analyst, Cowen

Definitely, yeah.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

We bought Motec earlier in the year, and they're in the really good business, and that business is actually growing. It mutes any decline that we had in the other part of the business. You have a situation where we've been modifying our portfolio over time, and there we have a good growth in the camera and the algorithms, the software of the vehicles. It's changed the outlook for that part of the business. You have a little bit of portfolio work that's gone on, and we still feel good for the second half. Your point is valid. Maybe we're more toward the midpoint and/or the low end than the high end, but we're at 4% through the half year, right in the middle of our guide, and we feel confident for the second half of the year.

Joe Giordano
Analyst, Cowen

I guess what I'm getting at, I know that you're looking forward and you're not sitting on your hands as things start to weaken from a macro perspective. Early in the year, orders growing 12% organically.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Right

Joe Giordano
Analyst, Cowen

organically in the first quarter, and now we're at flat. I'm guessing the decisions are somewhat different now. How are you acting differently than maybe you were?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Right

Joe Giordano
Analyst, Cowen

a year ago or something like that?

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Yeah. I just point you to margins. We really have some seasoned operators in our businesses, and they're reacting to their plans, so when their business has softened, they're adjusting their cost structures and you saw excellent core incrementals in the quarter. You saw excellent operating income. On a reported basis, we were up 60 basis points after we did a bunch of dilutive deals, and without the acquisitions, we were at 110 basis points. I think the AMETEK operational excellence is really working for you, and there's plenty of room to go and a long runway with that.

Joe Giordano
Analyst, Cowen

Good. Thanks, guys.

Dave Zapico
Chairman and CEO, AMETEK

Thank you.

Operator

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to our host.

Kevin Coleman
VP of Investor Relations, AMETEK

Great. Thank you, Kevin, for all your help, and thank you everyone for joining our call today. As a reminder, a replay of today's webcast will be available on our website shortly. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.