I would now like to introduce Arvind Sood, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sood, you may now begin.
Thank you, Lara. Good afternoon, everybody, and thanks for joining us on short notice. Our announcement today of a strategic collaboration in oncology with BeiGene, is an important step in expanding our presence in China and towards advancing the development of our oncology pipeline globally. To discuss the strategic rationale of this acquisition, our CEO, Bob Bradway, will make some opening comments, followed by David Meline, our CFO, who will discuss the anticipated financial impact of this collaboration. After David's comments, we'll open it up for questions, and in addition to Bob, Murdo Gordon, our Head of Global Commercial Operations, and Dave Reese, our Head of R&D, will also join us for the Q&A session. My customary reminder that some of the statements we make today will be forward-looking statements, and our SEC filings identify factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially.
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Bob.
Okay. Thank you, Arvind, and thank all of you for joining us this afternoon on short notice, and just a couple of days after our third quarter earnings call. As we discussed on our call earlier this week, expanding our global presence has been a priority for us at Amgen for some time now, as we look to play a growing role in meeting the rapidly increasing demand for better healthcare around the world. In fact, over the past several years, we've doubled the number of markets where we do business from roughly 50 countries to some 100 countries. As we shared with you Tuesday, we're seeing strong growth outside the U.S., with sales up 15% in the quarter, and volume growth of 23% outside the U.S. in the third quarter. As we look at our longer range plans, we think Asia will contribute importantly to our growth outlook.
As we've stated previously, we've had our sights set on China for some time, given that it is the world's second-largest pharmaceutical market, and growing briskly as access to new medicines continues to improve. We've been building our presence in China organically in recent years, and we now have two products approved and launched there, Repatha and XGEVA. At the same time, we've been proactively seeking strategic opportunities that would enable us to have a much bigger impact in China much sooner than we would've been able to realize on our own. We see BeiGene as a very attractive opportunity, and we've been very much impressed with what BeiGene has accomplished, particularly in research, clinical development, and commercialization.
Commercially, BeiGene has a 700-person organization in place that has proven its capabilities by growing Celgene's oncology products, REVLIMID, VIDAZA, and ABRAXANE in China by some fourfold since taking responsibility for them in the fourth quarter of 2017. BeiGene is also a leader in oncology clinical development with a 600-person team in China and the ability to conduct clinical trials that can not only be used for registration in China, but also increasingly in markets around the world. With cancer claiming an estimated 9.6 million lives worldwide last year, there's a clear need for new therapies, and nowhere more so than in China, where nearly 3 million people died last year of cancer.
Turning to the specifics of our collaboration, we'll invest approximately $2.7 billion to acquire 20.5% of the equity of BeiGene, and that reflects our confidence in what BeiGene has accomplished to date in their research and development activities, as well as the impressive commercial infrastructure they've built. This also reflects our commitment to making sure that we execute this strategic collaboration successfully with them. BeiGene will commercialize and share profits with us for three of our in-line oncology products, KYPROLIS, BLINCYTO, and XGEVA, and do so for up to seven years. We will also collaborate with BeiGene to develop 20 medicines from Amgen's innovative oncology pipeline, both in China and globally. As part of this collaboration, BeiGene will contribute up to $1.25 billion in R&D funding to these programs.
Amgen will pay mid-single-digit royalties to BeiGene on sales of approved products emerging from our pipeline outside of China, with the exception of AMG 510. Within China, BeiGene will retain commercial rights for up to six approved products, excluding AMG 510, with rights to the remaining products reverting to Amgen. Amgen will continue to commercialize its non-oncology portfolio in China, including our recently launched Repatha, as well as other products upon regulatory approval, including Prolia, EVENITY, and potentially Otezla. We expect this collaboration with BeiGene to be accretive to our long-term growth and to build on our existing business in China. Now let me turn over to David and ask him to discuss the financial impact of this transaction in a little bit greater detail. David?
Okay, thanks, Bob. As Bob discussed, we are very excited about this collaboration as we expect it to deliver immediate strategic value and long-term financial returns. In 2020, we anticipate that the transaction will temper some of our expected R&D expense growth as a result of the cost-sharing agreement. However, this benefit will be more than offset by the unfavorable impact of the collaboration on other income and expense.
The unfavorable other income and expense is due to both our share of BeiGene's financial results, reflecting our 20.5% ownership stake in BeiGene, as well as reduced interest income on cash used to fund the transaction. We currently estimate the total net impact of the deal on a non-GAAP earnings per share basis to be up to $0.20 per share dilutive to our 2020 results. On a cash flow basis, this transaction will be accretive in 2020 post-close. As is customary, we will provide full 2020 guidance on our January call. Finally, it is important to note that this transaction does not alter our capital allocation plans or limit our financial flexibility. We will continue to grow our business through internal investment and external business development activity while providing attractive returns to our shareholders through a growing dividend and continued share repurchases.
Okay, well, if we could open up the line for questions now, we'd be happy to entertain any questions from our callers. If you could just remind them of the procedure.
At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, please press star then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Harrison from Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
Great. Good afternoon, thanks for taking the questions. I guess maybe two for me that would be helpful. I guess first, can you help us think about how you think about the opportunity for XGEVA, BLINCYTO, and KYPROLIS in China? I guess the second thing is, it looked like you said two things. One, you're going to pay BeiGene global royalties on products that they help generate clinical data on. Could you just give us some sense for what that global royalty is? It sounds like you'll also pay them a tail royalty when products revert back to you in China. Maybe you could give us a sense of what that is. Thanks.
Sure. Matthew, maybe we can address your question in general terms. I'll ask David to talk about the second piece, and maybe Murdo and I can double team the first piece. At a high level, Matthew, we think that there is an attractive opportunity for Xgeva, which is registered now for giant cell tumor of the bone. We obviously look forward to extending that to include skeletal metastases, prevention of skeletal-related events for those cancers that have spread to the bone. We think there's a considerable opportunity in that area in China. Then speaking about the two hematologic products, Kyprolis and BLINCYTO, obviously, the unmet need in China for patients with hematologic disease is very high.
We're excited about these two products joining REVLIMID and VIDAZA inside BeiGene's organization and think that together with these products, their team will be even more successful than they've been since taking responsibility for Celgene's products in 2017. Murdo, if you want to provide any guidance, jump in.
Yeah, I would just add that given healthcare reform in China, both on the regulatory front as well as on the speed of reimbursement, I think we're in really good shape given the innovative nature of these products that BeiGene will be taking over. The other thing that's really interesting about our collaboration is BeiGene has good experience in navigating the National Reimbursement Drug List with the products that they have had with Celgene, as well as provincial and hospital listings. We think that these products in their hands can have very good potential.
Matthew, again, the financial characteristics here are pretty straightforward for deals like this. David, if you want to provide any more.
Sure, yeah. Very typically of these type of collaborations on pipeline assets, what's going to happen is, in the case of the ex-China situation, we'll pay royalties on global sales, as we say, in the single-digit range in % terms. With the exception of 510, where there will not be a royalty. In the case of within China, once the products do revert to us, similarly, we'll pay this type of royalty within China as well.
Why don't we go to our next question?
Your next question comes from the line of Alethia Young from Cantor Fitzgerald. Please proceed.
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to get maybe your perspective on how you're thinking about what % of your total revenues, let's say, five, six years out, might come from Asia or Chinese markets. Then a quick one just on, what's your perspective on kind of I&I and building out that business with bolt-ons in China or Asia as well? Thanks.
Okay, Alethia, it's nice to have you on the call. We missed you on the third quarter call. We can give you a general perspective on how we expect Asia to contribute to our long-range numbers. David, do you want to share with us?
Yeah. If you look over the last five years as we've been putting in place a business in the Asia Pacific region, we've seen a pretty modest contribution to the total growth of the company in terms of about 5%.
Of the company's growth globally has come from the Asia region. If we look over the coming 5 to 10-year period, we expect, given all of the investment that's going to start to come on stream, including this transaction as well as what we're doing in Japan, we think that contribution to the company's total growth is going to rise to in the range of about a quarter of our total global growth will be coming from the Asia Pacific region going forward.
Alethia, it's Murdo. I think you asked a question about I&I, and I think you're probably meaning inflammation immunology. What I will say is we continue to invest in expanding the non-oncology part of our portfolio and representing that through the Amgen affiliate that we have in China, and we've built a strong capability there. That team has done a very nice job of launching Repatha, which has exceeded our expectations. We're building increasing capacity there and expanding our field force. We're also anticipating other launches on the Gen Med side of our portfolio with both Prolia and potentially Otezla. A number of exciting growth opportunities to invest in and for our team on the ground in China to continue to execute with excellence as they have done so far with the Repatha launch.
Okay, let's take the next question.
Yes. Your next question comes from the line of Michael Yee from Jefferies. Please proceed.
Hey, guys. Thanks. A question for Bob. What did you learn about the Chinese pharmaceutical market or the developing market as you embarked upon this? What was it specifically about BeiGene that led you here as opposed to perhaps other Chinese pharmaceutical domiciled, Chinese domiciled companies? That's the first question. Second question was related to was there any interest in anything else that they had that you didn't, I noticed you weren't involved in their pipeline or why you don't have any economics in any of their products they're going to be selling in China. There's shared interest there. A thought about that. Thanks.
Sure, Michael, thanks for the question. China, obviously, we think China is a very important market. There continues to be substantial unmet medical need in China and improving access to innovative medicines, particularly in the area of cancer, where, as I said, nearly 3 million people will die each year in China from cancer, which is about fivefold what we experience here in the U.S. There's a really important opportunity, I think, to meet the needs of patients suffering from that disease there. Outside of oncology, we, as you know, have made a commitment to building our business organically, again, because of the environment, which is attractive for innovative medicines that address the kind of big challenges that they have as a society in cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis and so forth. China is an attractive, rapidly growing business for us.
We have been looking for opportunities to improve our position versus the organic plan that we have been investing in. We have reviewed a number of different opportunities over many years, and frankly, we have watched from a distance the developments of BeiGene, have been very impressed with their progress. The fact that their arrangement with Celgene changed as a result of Celgene's combination with Bristol created an opportunity for us, and we were delighted to have the chance to put our heads together with them and think about how together we might be able to tackle the market for cancer drugs in China and how they might be able to help us achieve faster, more effective development of our medicines by bringing to bear the resources they have in China for our global filing plan.
BeiGene is an attractive company to us when we look at their research, when we look at their development, when we look at their commercialization capabilities, and obviously a very strong fit with the products that I mentioned earlier, the three that are going into their hands at the outset of the partnership. With respect to our interest in them, just would remind you, Michael, that we have a 20.5% investment in the company. We feel we have participation across their capabilities, and look forward to seeing whether there are other opportunities that arise over time. Importantly, we see this as a collaboration that will help us improve our position in China, and we're committed to them and to making this collaboration a success.
Your next question comes from the line of Geoff Meacham from Bank of America, Merrill Lynch. Please proceed.
Hey, guys. It's Geoff. Thanks for taking the questions. First, could you maybe discuss a little bit more your diligence in China? Maybe you could talk about broadly what kind of penetration rates you saw previously when you were going solo, and how you could maybe see that changing moving forward. Then do the terms of the deal allow for any sort of raised stake in the future, and if so, how much could that be? Thanks.
Why don't we take your question in a couple of parts? Why don't I take the second piece of that question, and then I can invite Murdo and Dave to elaborate on what I just said in response to Michael's questions and share a little bit more detail, if that would be helpful to you, [Asim]. With respect to the investment, we have a straightforward standstill arrangement, very customary in transactions like this. We intend to maintain our ownership above 20%, but that's where we're focused. Again, just reiterate, focused on making this collaboration a success. With respect to any details, Murdo or Dave, that you want to share about the
Chinese market, feel free to jump in.
Well, I would just say that really what the collaboration allows us to do and allows BeiGene to do is focus in our areas of expertise. I think BeiGene get to focus in oncology. They already have established scale in the Chinese market, covering key oncology customers, we think that that could improve the speed of uptake and acceleration of the performance of the products that we've now established a collaboration on. That leaves us to focus on our cardiovascular, bone, and potentially inflammation business going forward. We like that focus, and I think it allows both companies in the collaboration to deliver good value in China.
Yeah. I would say from the research and development perspective, we're very enthusiastic. Xiaodong Wang, one of the co-founders and the head of R&D, is an internationally eminent scientist, has assembled a great team. In particular, their clinical development platform which consists of some 600 odd folks in China, I think has demonstrated that they can enroll at very high standards large numbers of patients. We believe this will really augment and accelerate our clinical development both within China as a contributor to global development program. As you've seen, the agreement includes roughly 20 of our pipeline molecules, including a large number of our BiTE molecules. Some of these target diseases of a major public health importance in China lung cancer, both non-small cell lung cancer and small cell lung cancer and gastric cancer, for example which is highly prevalent in the Chinese population.
That coupled with the larger macro regulatory reforms in China we felt was a very nice strategic fit with where we wanted to go.
All right. Let's go to our next question.
The next question comes from the line of Kennen MacKay from RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.
Kennen, are you there? Okay.
Sorry about that. I was on mute.
Okay, go ahead.
Thanks. It looks like this is going to gain Amgen's commercial products quite a big increase in access to the Chinese market through the BeiGene commercial team. Maybe was just hoping you could elaborate a little bit on the royalty Amgen would pay on some of these putative successes here outside of China. Is that sort of mid-single digit? Is that sort of a 2% or should we be thinking sort of eight, 9%? Can you maybe just talk a little bit about the sort of rationale for including that ex-China, ex-Asia royalty in the agreement? Thanks so much.
Sure. We addressed that earlier, Kennen, as you might have heard when Matthew Harrison asked this question. I think it was Matthew. I don't know that we can give any more specific details than we already have, other than just to reiterate that the arrangement is fairly customary and so is the mechanism for trying to help ensure that both we and our collaborator here have a pathway to earn a return for our respective shareholders. David, you want to add anything further on that?
No, I wouldn't add anything further. Very much market-driven type arrangement. Also in the context, I think importantly for us, it's a broad collaboration that's very focused on the strategic opportunity for us to align these companies and has multiple parts, including our overall ownership of the company. You can be assured that as a standalone, if you just look at the R&D collaboration, it's typical market terms.
Okay, let's go to the next question.
Your next question comes from the line of Geoffrey Porges from SVB Leerink. Please proceed.
Thank you very much, congratulations on what's a very complicated, obviously, set of terms and deal elements. I just would like to get a few specifics, if we could. First, are the 20 products already defined or are there some draft picks in that 20? Secondly, what is the proportion of the development cost that BeiGene will be funding in return for both their rights in China and for the royalty? Lastly, if you could help us understand what kind of regulatory review does a deal like this have, particularly given some of the somewhat fraught relationships between the two countries involved and the access that this is giving BeiGene to Amgen's crown jewels. Thanks.
Okay. Let's sort of take those in pieces, Geoff. In terms of regulatory review, we think that this transaction has potential to close, as we said, the beginning of next year. Should be a pretty straightforward regulatory review. It will require a vote of their shareholders, and it's just a straightforward review of our equity investment in them under Hart-Scott-Rodino. We're not expecting anything particularly complicated there. In terms of the basket, it is a defined basket of 20, and in terms of the portion that they're funding, as we said in the press release, it's up to $1 billion and a quarter. Again, I would say it's specific assets, Geoff, not technology or it's not technology transfer or anything along those lines.
Okay. Thanks.
Your next question.
Next question.
The line of Yaron Werber from Cowen. Please proceed.
Great. Team, thanks for taking our questions again, and congrats on the strategic deal. I think it's really interesting for both companies. Maybe Bob and David, for both of you, there's a purpose why you're doing 20.5% equity, in which case you're consolidating. Maybe help us understand the decision to consolidate as opposed to doing 19.9% interest. Then do you have a right of first refusal in turn if somebody else tries to acquire the remaining 80%? Then last question, BeiGene does retain rights to up to six pipeline products that do not revert back to Amgen. Is that a 50/50, essentially profits split to you when that happens? Thank you.
Okay. Sorry, there were several questions.
Yeah. Maybe I'll take the first one.
Take the lead. Yeah.
That's right, Yaron. With the 20.5, we will have equity accounting where we'll recognize on an ongoing basis their profit and losses from their overall business. We felt that that was a preferable approach, A, because we think it clarifies that this is indeed an important strategic collaboration between the two companies, and therefore, we felt that it would be appropriate to have an ownership position of that size. Point number 1. Point number 2 is, the alternative being when you're below 20%, you have the choice to, on a quarterly basis, have a mark to market of your investment based on share price movement.
Given the volatility of share prices, we felt that it was preferable from a reporting and forecasting perspective to be able to do equity accounting where you have a much greater consistency of results and the ability to forecast and pull those through your results as opposed to the more volatile results that occur when you simply mark to market every quarter. That's the first piece of it. The second question was on right of first refusal on the balance.
We have, again, Yaron, a 20.5% stake, meaningful stake. As I said earlier, we have a customary standstill, and you should assume the arrangements are pretty straightforward for investments of this type in our industry.
And then the-
Profit splits, retaining rights, what happens.
Oh, sorry.
on the six that they retain.
Your next question comes from the line of Ronny Gal.
Hang on. Hey, Lara.
Yes, sir.
Lara, hang on just a second.
Sorry, what was the third question, Yaron? Just remind us.
Yeah.
I think he was asking the financial arrangement for the six products that stay in the venture.
Yeah.
Yeah. We'll have a cost and profit-sharing arrangement on the six that we retain. Okay. I think we got all your questions, Yaron. Why don't we move on to the next question, Lara.
Your next question comes from the line of Ronny Gal from Bernstein. Please proceed.
Hi. Thank you for taking the question. This is Andy Chen on behalf of Ronny Gal . Two questions. First, oncology is presumably more profitable than other lines of business. If you're developing cardiovascular infrastructure in China anyways, isn't there some synergy there already? Why not develop your own products there in oncology? Second, who owns this infrastructure in China? In the next few years, can Amgen co-commercialize with BeiGene? After a few years when the products revert to Amgen, does that infrastructure also revert to Amgen, or does BeiGene get to keep it?
Okay. We're going to answer that in pieces. Murdo, why don't you just remind Andy of the structure, in particular for the non-oncology piece?
Okay. Yeah. Andy, we largely see the customer base for CV and oncology as non-overlapping. We have a fairly efficient infrastructure to support that cardiovascular business in China right now. We'll be building out, as you say, for cardiovascular opportunity. The overlap with cardiovascular and bone is much better. Our next product that we're anticipating approval for in China would be Prolia. That's an efficient commercial model and a nice business for us to continue to invest in as Amgen. On the oncology side, there's a high degree of efficiency and overlap, as Bob described earlier, given the hematology-oncology presence that BeiGene already has with the legacy Celgene products that our products would fit well into. Even for XGEVA, which we anticipate broadening in terms of indications, a large opportunity exists for XGEVA in multiple myeloma patients and fracture prevention.
There's some really nice synergy of the three in-line products that we'd be putting into the collaboration with BeiGene. Of course, depending on which products come out of the pipeline collaboration work we've got, again, they're oncology-focused. They have a footprint. They have a large presence. They have over 700 commercial staff already on the ground, and they can grow into that pipeline quite nicely. Longer term, this deal is strategically analogous in our minds to what we've done in Japan, where with our partnership with Astellas, we've built a very nice business of developing our Amgen portfolio with Astellas' support and help, and we become an independent company next year in Japan as Amgen K.K. In that seven year-ish timeframe, we would anticipate repatriating some very nice oncology products into an ongoing business that we would've been running in China for many years.
I think, Andy, what you're really asking is, did we feel that this transaction was more attractive for our shareholders than our organic plan? The answer is yes. We obviously compared this to the baseline of your question, and we considered this was a more attractive way for us to proceed. Let's go on to the next question.
Your next question comes from the line of Jay Olson from Oppenheimer. Please proceed.
Oh, hi. Congrats on the deal, thanks for taking the question. Can you talk about how you view the opportunity for biosimilars in China? If your biosimilar portfolio is not part of this deal, does that mean that you've retained the full rights to independently commercialize both oncology and non-oncology biosimilars in China? Thank you.
That's a good question, Jay. We think long term, there is an attractive market for biosimilars in China. We entered into an agreement previously with Simcere. This transaction does not include our biosimilars. Lara, go ahead.
Your next question comes from the line of Cory Kasimov from JP Morgan. Please proceed.
Thank you. This is Gavin on for Cory, actually. Just to follow up on Alethia's question, we were curious about the pricing differential between the U.S. and China, and any impact the geographic mix will have on the overall margin profile going forward.
I think things are evolving quite fluidly, Gavin, in China, given it's been a relatively short timeframe between the more frequent updates of the National Reimbursement Drug List and the number of products that have gone on there. We do expect prices to be at the low end of what you would see in European markets on average. We think that overall, there's still good margin to be had there and good profitability in China.
If I could, at a broader level for the company, we often are asked about our view of the ongoing profitability of Amgen going forward. It's been our view and continues to be our view, including with this growth opportunity, that we'll continue to enjoy very good profitability based on the portfolio of innovative products that we have that are differentiated and typically first-in-class, and that we expect going forward to be amongst the more profitable companies in the sector.
Your next question comes from the line of Evan Seigerman from Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Hi, guys. Thank you for taking the question. Congrats on the deal. I'm just kind of curious on a higher strategic level, can you help me understand why now? Have there been certain regulatory or IP changes in China that have helped aided your decision in executing this now? Can you help us better understand the overall commercial environment in getting these drugs to patients in China? Is it still self-pay, or do you anticipate more insurance-like schemes potentially through the government? Thank you.
Sure. Well, why now? I think at the strategic level, let me reiterate what we've said for some time, Evan, and then I'll invite David Reese to share with you some specifics on the drug development front, and then Murdo, feel free to jump in on commercials. As part of our stated strategy to expand internationally for some time, is we think we have a portfolio that's well-suited to the needs of markets like, for example, China and the rest of the Asian markets. We have been seeking to develop our presence organically and have consistently been looking for opportunities that might enable us to get to where we're trying to go more quickly and more successfully. We've been regularly reviewing opportunities, and we were thrilled when this one arose.
Again, we're benefiting from the fact that BeiGene, following its arrangement with Celgene, became available for us to have discussions with. Those discussions led to the collaboration that we've just announced. A little bit of our long-standing strategy, the increasing attractiveness, in particular of the market in China, for reasons which Dave and Murdo can address, and the fact that a potential partner or potential collaborator that we had high regard for became available.
Yeah. I would add from the development perspective, we've seen fast-paced regulatory reform in China over the last few years to really align the Chinese regulatory authority with global standards very similar to the U.S. and Europe. In addition, China has joined the ICH, International Council for Harmonisation, again, I think serving to really reinforce the commitment to global standards, and all of those pieces were an attractive part of this collaboration to us as well.
I think part of the policies that Dave's referring to that have encouraged the establishment of faster and more innovative products being able to enter the Chinese market, both from an approval perspective, but they've also been working very hard on improving access and reimbursement, given the speed at which now the National Reimbursement Drug List is updated. It used to take many years between refreshes. Now they're on an annual cadence of refreshing that National Reimbursement Drug List. I think the provinces have been more progressive, right down to individual hospitals. There is a real push to make innovative medicines more affordable and available for Chinese patients. We're fortunate that we have a number of products that are coming in fairly fast sequence, in terms of approval in China and potential launch.
This collaboration is coming at a very good time for Amgen, where we have a lot of important products under review and potentially launching. Given the strength of BeiGene and their commercial presence in oncology, we think that they are a logical and strong partner. Cory.
Great. Let's move on to the next question.
Your next question comes from the line of Salim Syed from Mizuho Securities. Please proceed.
Hi, this is not Ellen for Salim. Thanks for taking the questions. I have two questions. Number one, is the ultimate intention here to build your own sales force in China oncology, as you have done with China CV? Should we view this deal as a stepping stone of some sort? Are there things you feel like you need to still learn in China before establishing your own oncology sales force there? Number two, when does the standstill we have with BeiGene expire? Thank you.
Okay. Why don't we take this in parts again? Murdo, I think, has addressed a couple of your first questions. Why don't we tackle those again and then I'll answer your other question.
Yeah. I would say we're extremely busy with the organic plan that we're building out for Repatha and potentially Prolia and Otezla and other non-oncology products. We're very focused on that for now. We felt that it was a good opportunity to collaborate with BeiGene on the oncology side, just given their knowledge, their expertise, and their standing presence that they have in the Chinese market. There are provisions in the collaboration for us to repatriate oncology products in the future. We think that that's a really nice way to build our presence in a large market that requires a lot of scale over time. Yes, we at some point in the future would anticipate having an oncology business within the Amgen affiliate in China.
Ellen, you asked about our equity stake. Again, there's nothing unusual about our equity stake. It's a 20.5% stake with a standard standstill agreement. Not a lapsing standstill. I think that was your question. Okay, let's move on to the next question.
Your next question comes from the line of Mohit Bansal from Citigroup. Please proceed.
Great. Thanks for taking my question, and congrats on the deal. Maybe a little bit more color on the quarter of your growth coming from Asia Pacific region. What timeframe you are looking at from now? The other one is, how do you expect to book revenue? Would you book 50-50 split on your revenues, or would you book the top line revenues directly? Thank you.
Yeah, I can cover that. The growth figures that I quoted, Mohit, we expect if you look over the 10-year timeframe and in particular over the period in the second half of that period, we're expecting that kind of a growth contribution from the region. The second question in terms of the revenue booking arrangement as it relates to the end-market products, the first three we mentioned, XGEVA, KYPROLIS, and.
Blincyto
BLINCYTO. We will have a supply arrangement to BeiGene who will recognize the full revenue, and we'll have it. It's proportional as a supplier to them on a product basis.
Got it. Thank you.
Sure.
Okay, Lara, why don't we take one last question?
Absolutely. Your last question comes from the line of Umer Raffat from Evercore ISI. Please proceed.
Hi. Thanks so much for taking my question. Bob, before I ask my real questions, I have to ask you, why such a complex deal structure? I'm finally starting to figure it out.
I think collaborations like this often are complex, Umer. I'm sorry it was difficult for you to run to ground.
I'm not very bright. My question is I'll tell you what my question is. Number one, if KRAS does something like $750 million in sales in China, between the time BeiGene will have a 50/50 on it, over the 7 years, and then subsequently the royalties that Amgen will pay them back, it seems to me that KRAS alone, assuming it's a peak sales in China, $750 million, alone explains possibly over two-thirds of the value of this $1.2 billion that BeiGene is contributing to Amgen. Is that consistent with how you see it? I'm trying to understand what they got out of my Amgen model first. Secondly, in buying a 20%+ stake in BeiGene, there is now an implicit view Amgen's taking on BeiGene's BTK inhibitor. My question to you is, how are you guys thinking about the competitive landscape?
There's important data coming from Loxo's BTK, et cetera. Thank you very much.
Sure. I'll let David answer the first piece of your question.
Yeah.
Let me just quickly tie off on the investment. We're, again, excited to be an investor in BeiGene. We're impressed by the work that they've done with PD-1, with their PARP inhibitor, with their BTK. We're sure that there will be other attractive innovation emerging from their research facilities as well. We're, again, impressed with what we've seen, look forward to being a strategic collaborator with them, and I think maybe David can help you out.
Yeah. Well, a couple things, Umer. First of all, and we probably weren't clear in the commentary, there won't be royalty arrangement on the 510, including after we hand it back to them. That's point number 1. Point number 2 is, in fact, our view of these things is, yes, it's an important contributor to the whole portfolio and the economics of the deal, the 510. We're feeling very good about the prospects. It becomes a question of having the whole pie yourself or having a larger pie for which you get a share.
Our conclusion is that in the greater context of the opportunity that exists in this, as you point out, multifaceted transaction and collaboration to do the sharing of the Chinese opportunity in the 510 for a period of time, which we believe very strongly will be larger for us as a result of the collaboration. We think that makes sense and is a good economic equation for both Amgen and its shareholders.
Great. Thank you, David.
If I may, can you tell us what that single digit is?
We're not going to disclose that, no.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Sure. Thanks, Umer. Thanks, David. Thanks to all of you for participating in this call. If you have any other questions, if you want to continue the dialogue, we'll be hanging out for a while, so give me a call.
Okay.
Have a good day.
Thanks, folks. Bye-bye.
This concludes Amgen's conference call. Thank you everyone for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a lovely day.