Good morning, and welcome to today's Amneal Pharmaceuticals investor call. I will now turn the call over to Amneal's Head of Investor Relations, Tony DiMeo.
Good morning, and thank you for joining Amneal Pharmaceuticals' investor call. This morning, we issued a press release announcing Amneal agrees to acquire Kashiv BioSciences and reporting preliminary Q1 results. The press release and presentation are available at amneal.com.
Certain statements made on this call regarding matters that are not historical facts, including but not limited to management's outlook or predictions, are forward-looking statements that are based solely on information that is now available to us. Please see the section entitled Cautionary Statements on Forward-Looking Statements for factors that may impact future performance.
We also discuss non-GAAP measures. Information on use of these measures and reconciliations to GAAP are in the press release and presentation. On the call today are Chirag and Chintu Patel, Co-founders and Co-CEOs, Tasos Konidaris, CFO, and Jason Daly, Chief Legal Officer. I will now hand the call over to Chirag.
Thank you Tony. Today is a defining moment for Amneal. This morning, we announced that Amneal agrees to acquire Kashiv BioSciences, creating a fully integrated global biosimilars leader and positioning Amneal to become the number one affordable medicines company in the United States.
We have long said this was our goal, and today we're showing exactly how to get there. Turning to slide three, I'll begin the call by discussing the strategic fit of the acquisition and the remarkable biosimilar opportunity ahead. Chintu will share more about Kashiv, our combined capabilities, and the robust biosimilar portfolio we will have.
Tasos will discuss the transaction, our financial outlook, and Amneal's very strong first quarter results, which we pre-announced this morning. At a high level, Q1 marked another consecutive quarter of strong top and bottom line growth, with revenue up 4%, adjusted EBITDA up 19%, and EPS up 29%.
Our strong start of the year, combined with growth of existing and new products, gives us confidence to raise our standalone guidance for 2026. This consistent performance is something investors have come to expect from Amneal and something we take great pride in.
On slide four, we provide an executive summary of this combination. First, this is a highly strategic transaction that creates fully integrated global biosimilars leader. This unlocks direct access to more than $300 billion of worldwide biologic loss of exclusivity over the next decade by bringing together Kashiv's deep R&D and manufacturing capabilities with our proven commercial scale.
This combination builds on a long-standing partnership that significantly reduces execution risk. Second, this combination creates immediate scale in biosimilars. We expect multiple launches each year going forward, supported by a robust pipeline of more than 20 biosimilars programs.
Third, this adds biosimilars as a key growth pillar within affordable medicines. The transaction further diversifies our business and extends our growth profile well into 2030s, while also creating a footprint to expand internationally over time.
Fourth, the deal is structured to create value from day one. With a balanced mix of upfront consideration, performance-based milestones, we expect significant financial synergies, and we maintain a disciplined financial profile with a clear path to deleverage to below 3x by 2028. Let me turn it over to Chintu to share more about Kashiv.
Thank you Chirag. Good morning, everyone. Going to slide five. Today's acquisition announcement reflects our long-stated goal to be vertically integrated in biosimilars. I want to acknowledge the Amneal and Kashiv teams whose hard work made this possible.
Kashiv is a biologics platform built over 12 years with more than $900 million invested, 600+ employees, and four R&D and manufacturing sites. It brings proven capabilities, a differentiated portfolio, and a global operational footprint in U.S. and India, which provides reliable supply chain and cost efficiencies.
Turning to slide six, Kashiv adds deep biosimilar development expertise and scaled U.S. and India manufacturing, enabling multiple programs to run in parallel with speed and cost efficiency. The platform can support three to five biosimilars developments annually and offers end-to-end biologics capabilities from clone development and protein characterization to clinical and regulatory execution.
This expertise spans key modalities and the vast majority of biologics, including microbials, monoclonal antibodies, fusion proteins, bispecifics, and cytokines.
From a manufacturing perspective, drug substance capacity is expected to scale from 26,000 liters in 2026 to 75,000 liters by 2028. Combined with Amneal, this creates a fully integrated global biosimilar platform. I will hand it over to Tasos to share more on the transaction.
Good morning, and thank you, Chintu. Turning to the transaction overview on slide seven. As you can see, we have purposely structured this deal to balance upfront value and success-based consideration to ensure alignment of interests.
The upfront value of $750 million is a 50/50 mix of cash and equity. The equity portion translates to approximately $29 million of Amneal shares, representing 8% equity dilution. In addition to the upfront value, the deal terms include potential milestones of up to $350 million, contingent upon attaining certain regulatory approval milestones, as well as potential royalties over 12 years contingent on achieving certain gross profit levels.
Finally, Amneal will fund operations between signing and closing of the deal. We spent a lot of time structuring this transaction to ensure it aligns incentives with the large commercial opportunities ahead of us, and doing it in the most balance sheet-friendly way.
The transaction will be funded by cash on hand, as well as some additional debt, and we expect the combined company's net debt leverage ratio at the end of 2026 to be 3.7x adjusted EBITDA. Only a slight increase to the 3.5x adjusted EBITDA at the end of 2025. It is important to note that we expect to resume our deleveraging in 2027, and expect our net leverage ratio to be 3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA by 2028.
Finally, we expect this highly strategic transaction to close in a few months as we work through Amneal shareholder approval and customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. Let me now share our expected combined financial growth profile on slide eight. First, we're embarking on this acquisition from a position of strength.
As you may have seen from our press release this morning, we announced record first quarter preliminary financial results, and we also raised our full-year standalone guidance. Amneal's ability to deliver solid top-line growth and double-digit adjusted EPS growth in a tumultuous macroeconomic environment is a testament to our strategic choices, strong execution, and relevancy of our products.
Consequently, on a combined basis, including Kashiv, our 2020 to 2026 view remains largely unchanged, aside from a small impact to cash flow related to near-term transaction and integration costs. Importantly, we're maintaining the higher adjusted EBITDA and EPS outlook, which we believe is a clear signal of the underlying momentum and confidence in the trajectory of our business.
For 2027 and beyond, we expect the combined company to continue to grow, both in terms of top and bottom line performance, and by 2030, we expect revenues to have grown by approximately $1.2 billion or 40% over 2026, and EPS up by approximately $0.70 or 70% over 2026.
Finally, we expect substantial operating cash flow growth, which supports our continuing deleveraging. While increased financial performance is important, I cannot emphasize enough the impact this acquisition is having in enhancing our diversification, providing us with access to large markets into 2030 and beyond, just like our GLP-1 deal with Pfizer. Let me now hand it back to Chirag.
Thank you Tasos. On slide nine, this transaction fits squarely in our long-term strategy. It adds biosimilars as a key growth pillar and positions us higher on the value curve with greater scale and higher growth. Why now? In looking at slide 10, it's because we are entering the golden era for biosimilars.
The global market is expected to grow from about $40 billion today towards $200 billion by 2035, driven by the largest biologic loss of exclusivity in history over the next decade. Advancing to slide 11. Biosimilars represent the next major wave of affordable medicines, and we are at an inflection point.
Physician adoption is accelerating, patient access is expanding, and the US regulatory advancements are lowering development time and cost. Today, about half of US drug spend is concentrated in high-cost biologics.
Furthermore, biopharma pipelines continue to shift towards biologics, with most therapies in development being large molecules. Each biologic is a future biosimilar opportunity. With biosimilars, access expands and cost lowers, delivering meaningful value for patients and the healthcare system. In 2024, biosimilars were estimated to have saved the US healthcare system $20 billion.
There's a powerful opportunity to improve affordability and expand access, because what is the point of innovation if it is not accessible? Turning to slide 12. Despite this opportunity, there are only a handful of integrated global players, and today there is no clear US biosimilar leader.
Most players have relied on partnerships to date. With Kashiv, we bring together development, manufacturing, and commercialization, enabling faster execution, smarter and bigger portfolio choices, and ability to capture full economics. We believe this level of vertical integration is a true competitive advantage. I'll pass it back to Chintu to share more on the combined capabilities and portfolio.
Thank you. Chirag shared with you the strategy on why biosimilars. Let me share with you the clear reason why Amneal. Looking at slide 13. Since our founding, we have been the leading affordable medicine business. We are now number three in US retail generics with over 280 products across dosage forms with one of the most complex portfolio in the industry.
This is a natural extension of our strategy, and we will execute with the same rigor and discipline in biosimilars. On slide 14, we show how this combination brings together end-to-end biosimilar capabilities. Kashiv adds scientific expertise and in-house development from cell line through approval, along with scaled biologics manufacturing across a global footprint.
Amneal brings a proven commercial engine, leveraging our leading affordable medicines business, long-standing customer relationships, and a specialty branded infrastructure to drive market access and uptake.
Built on a 10-year+ partnership with Kashiv, our capabilities are highly complementary and positions us to execute well. Next, let's look at slide 15 and the combined portfolio. Together, we have a combined portfolio of 20+ biosimilars that targets over $100 billion in U.S. opportunity and more globally.
First, we expect to have six commercial biosimilars by 2027, including biosimilars for Avastin and Denosumab, and a biosimilar for Xolair, which is pending approval. Second, we expect six or more additional approvals from our advanced pipeline by 2030. Third, in 2030 and beyond, we have a deep pipeline of future programs that extend our growth well into the next decade.
Strategically, this is a balanced and durable portfolio mix. Many opportunities are biologics with less than one or two competitors expected, and others are widely used products with large markets, creating a durable and scalable growth engine. On slide 16, we have a clear line of sight to steady cadence of near-term catalyst from Kashiv.
First, lanreotide is a high-value partner asset expected to be approved in quarter three. Second biosimilar, Xolair, follows with anticipated approval at year-end, which is another Kashiv partner asset that we now capture full value for. After that, we see a pipeline of additional approvals in 2028 and 2029, including biosimilars for Orencia and Cimzia, each representing meaningful future growth drivers. Let me now pass it back to Tasos.
Thank you Chintu. I'm very pleased to share with you our exceptional first quarter preliminary results, our confidence in the strength of our business, which translates to increasing our full year guidance on a standalone basis, and finally, our proposed acquisition of Kashiv BioSciences, which positions Amneal as a leader in the large global biosimilars market.
Let me first start with our first quarter preliminary financial results, which were characterized by robust top line growth, exceptional bottom line growth, and continuing deleveraging. Moving to slide 22 in the appendix.
Total net revenues in the first quarter of $723 million grew 4%. Q1 affordable medicines revenue of $423 million grew 2%, driven by strong performance of key women's health and ADHD products due to high market demand and increased Amneal supply.
These high-margin products drove Q1 segment gross margin to 47.3%, up 320 basis points versus Q1 of 2025. We continue to expect affordable medicines revenue growth of 7%-8% this year, driven by the strength of new product launches and strong execution by our teams. Q1 specialty revenue of $133 million grew 23%.
First quarter Crexont revenue of $21 million reflects continued strong market uptake. Earlier this week, we shared with you our additional phase 4 data, which showed Crexont as having more than three hours good ON time versus Rytary, reflecting the Crexont's compelling clinical profile.
In addition, we're also delighted with the strong launch trajectory of Brekiya for cluster headaches. Revenue in Q1 2026 was $4.6 million, compared to $1.6 million in Q4 2025. This rapid adoption, as well as feedback from patients and prescribers, confirms the substantial market need and long-term revenue potential for Brekiya.
Turning over to AvKARE, where Q1 revenues of $166 million declined by $6 million or 4%, a strong growth in our government channel was offset by expected decline in the low-margin distribution channel. As you recall, this is part of our strategy to enhance profitability, and we're happy to report that AvKARE's gross margin in the quarter grew by 690 basis points versus first quarter last year.
Moving to slide 21, from a bottom-line perspective, the strong growth of adjusted gross margins by approximately 500 basis points and thoughtful expense management translated to Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $202 million, up 19%, and Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.27, up 29%.
Finally, our strong financial performance and discipline continue to reduce leverage, and our net leverage ratio in March of 2026 declined to 3.5x adjusted EBITDA, compared to 3.9x adjusted EBITDA in March of 2025.
In summary, and before I turn to our acquisition of Kashiv BioSciences, our business fundamentals, financial outlook, and balance sheet have never been stronger, which positions us well to consider such a strategic deal.
Turning back to the acquisition for a moment, as we outlined on slide 17, this is a highly synergistic transaction, adding significant value to our commercial and operating business model and providing substantial financial benefits over the course of time.
From an integration perspective, we're combining Kashiv's R&D and manufacturing expertise with Amneal's commercial engine. We're strengthening market access, expanding in hospitals, and accelerating international growth. With our third global platform, we accelerate time to market at lower cost.
From a financial standpoint, we expect $400- 500 million in cumulative financial synergies over time. There are two key elements to this. First, we're now capturing full economics from partnered assets by eliminating milestones and profit-sharing obligations that existed as part of prior licensing deals.
Second, we also expect to realize substantial tax benefits as well as incentives from the local Indian authorities. Importantly, this deal goes beyond traditional cost synergies. It creates strategic scale and durable value while also avoiding the significant time and capital needed to build a biosimilars platform organically. Let me now hand it back over to Chirag.
Thank you Tasos. On slide 18, since 2019, we have built a stronger, more diversified Amneal and delivered consistent top and bottom-line growth each year. We have done this by executing well across our business.
We launched 20-30 products annually, expanded specialty with Crexont and Brekiya, entered biosimilars with our first products, established a novel GLP-1 collaboration with Pfizer, expanded internationally, and acquired and more than doubled the AvKARE business. That said, the opportunity ahead remains significantly greater than what we have achieved to date.
We envision Amneal 2030 as a much larger, more diversified biopharmaceutical company with more than 400 retail and injectable medicines, mostly complex and differentiated, a large pipeline of 20+ biosimilars, and multiple specialty branded products advancing the standard of care while Amneal fills hundreds of millions of US prescriptions each year. In summary, the key takeaway from today's call are on slide 19.
Today marks a pivotal moment for Amneal, establishing a fully integrated global biosimilars leader, strengthening our diversified portfolio, and extending our durable growth profile into 2030s. Our strategy remains clear: to become America's number one affordable medicines company and a leading global provider of essential medicines. Because innovation only matters when it reaches the patients. With that, thank you, and we'll open the line for questions.
Go ahead operator. You can open the call for questions now. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality.
If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Dellatorre with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Guys congrats on the deal. I know this was a long time coming, so very exciting. Maybe two questions, if I may. First, just on the commercial strategy for the new expanded portfolio. I see you have both, the mega blockbusters like Dupixent and Keytruda, and also many sub $5 billion assets in there. It's a healthy mix of pharmacy benefit and medical benefit drugs.
Could you maybe just speak a bit on how you approach portfolio construction and what type of assets we should expect over time as you all disclose more and the pipeline expands? I realize you're primarily focused on the US market, but could you just remind us how you guys are thinking about the international biosimilars business as well? Maybe stepping back, a question for Chirag.
When you look at this new kind of combined company you all have now, what would you highlight as maybe the two to three specific things that you're most excited about and that you think could drive upside to this long-term guidance that you're giving today? Thanks a lot.
Well, thank you Matt. Good morning. Let me address the portfolio mix first, the Kashiv pipeline. Markets are shifting more towards PBM, as we know. We predict 70%-75% market to be driven by private label PBMs, specialty pharmacies, and 25% or so will be driven by buy and build.
It's a well-thought-out portfolio. If you look at it, the disclosed product, there are certain undisclosed product that just like what we did with small molecule, we want to be the big player, relevant player, and mostly focused on niche products.
How do we achieve that? That is why we have some of the big products like Keytruda, Opdivo, Dupixent, but each has its own reason why we have selected. Just give you an example. Dupixent requires such a large biologics capacity.
We're building it, and at the right time, it will be ready to deliver. We have niche products, which we expect two to three competitors. If you look at overall in next 10 years, our portfolio would be probably 70% would be niche, about 30% would be the large molecule that we must have to offer a complete package to the customers.
That is how the portfolio makes very well, and obviously the IP driven, a lot of strategy work goes behind it for last 10 years, what Kashiv has done, and we love the portfolio. Execution is going to be the key, which Amneal has executed over last 25 years. We'll bring the same rigor to execute this big platform on the biologics. Your second question on how do I think about US commercial.
As I answered, most of the products we will be marketing Amneal directly. We already have a long-standing relationship with big buyers such as CVS, Express Scripts, Cigna, Optum, UnitedHealth. These three are about 80% of the market. We also enjoy a great relationship with smaller customers. We're well set to commercialize products in the United States with a broad portfolio of small molecule.
Don't forget that plays a role as well. It's the same people, same relationship, same trust that we have established. If you ask the Red Oak of the world or Walgreens of the world, they would rank Amneal as the most strategic, the best platform, best values, the most complicated products that we come up with and create a massive patient access at affordable prices. We intend to do the same with biosimilars.
For international, our strategy has been clear. India, we have started marketing on our own, mostly the unmet need on the branded side and biosimilars. Rest of the world, we enjoy great partnership as Amneal. Kashiv has also built great partnership with companies as well, which will be disclosed in the near future.
I'm a big believer in a partnership model. There is a biosimilar void. There's 118 biosimilars. How do we deliver as an industry on all of that? Partnership will make great sense, and we don't intend to have boots on the ground in Europe or South America or Canada. That's not where we are focused on.
We are solely focused on delivering biosimilars at scale, staying in the molecule for a long time. Be a champion in America, as we have a stated goal as America's number one affordable medicines company, and we are on our way to get there. Maybe 2030, 2032.
We are multi-decade strategies, so we are completely focused and internationally great partners. We look forward to work with them. The last one, and sorry, the long answer, but I'm so excited. The new combined company, what is the most exciting thing? Let's go back. Our core business is performing at a full throttle.
The women's health, the hormonal patches demands has gone up. The inhalation products demand, ophthalmic products demand, they're all at a high level. Also the small molecules LOEs are going to double in next five years than it had for last five years. Tremendous growth opportunity in core business by itself.
Second, our specialty brands, very exciting. You saw the Crexont data, amazing. We're getting words from our partners in Europe and India that this would become a first-line therapy. Because they've been using 40 years old technology platform.
The product was made 40 years ago, IR product, Sinemet, which gives you off time every two hours, three hours. You think of a life of a Parkinson's patient. Crexont is the best therapy out there for maintaining their daily lives. Very excited about Crexont and seeing a great outcome on Brekiya. It's a much needed product, useful product for cluster headache patient and severe migraine patient.
The third, GLP-1 partnership with Pfizer. As we all know, GLP market is going to keep growing and it's going to become like steady. Tremendous capacity and capability will be required. This is what we are building with Metsera, then with Pfizer.
We enjoy a great relationship with Pfizer. It's a win-win situation. Global markets, global demand. We have 18 countries, emerging countries, including India. We've been given the rights to market Pfizer's branded products, which came from Metsera portfolio.
That's a completely unique strategy than fighting over the generics at such a low prices that's been out there and just started in India and rest of the world. We believe this is consumer products, so everybody would want less side effects, longer duration, which potentially Pfizer products delivers.
The last one, as we've been talking on this call, is all about biosimilars. Huge growth. We've been saying that this is the inflection point. The providers are excited. The 80% now turns into biosimilars. The insurance company, the coverage is becoming better and better. CMS keeps pushing for it. FDA has reduced the regulatory requirements.
This is the perfect time that we integrate this platform and deliver three to five biosimilars, develop and file and commercialize for many years to come. It also opens up the opportunity for the bispecifics, right?
The fusion proteins, and in the future, ADC as well. This is why it's so important for Amneal to now have a complete platform, small molecule platform and large molecule platform. Long answer, but I hope it was helpful, Matt.
Yes. No, thank you.
Yeah.
Super helpful. Really appreciate the color.
Your next question comes from the line of Les Sulewski with Truist Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Congrats on the transaction. You noted the capacity scaling from 26,000 to 75,000 liters. How does this compare to some of your peers, and what's the magnitude of dollar spent to get there? Separately, would you say this is right sized for that business moving forward, and do you see a further need for capacity expansion beyond the 75,000?
Then second, on the gross margin profile, maybe just walk us through the puts and takes around 1Q, and how does the remainder of this year look? Then over the long run, how should we think about the margin profile now that the biosimilars business will be integrated? Thank you.
Great. Chintu and I will take the first one and pass it to Tasos for the second one. Kashiv has built the platform manufacturing sites over last several years, which coincides with the product approvals timing. Xolair being first will be manufactured in Piscataway, New Jersey, and also the backup site is in India as well for global supply.
All key molecules will have two sites, U.S., which as you know, we are US champion. We always believe in US manufacturing. We keep expanding US manufacturing, and we already have a site in Chicago, with Kashiv acquisition, which is for E. coli. The current capacity is sufficient for first few launches.
Then over 2027, 2028, 2029, we're expanding to 75,000 liters, which is again, matches with the pipeline execution and pipeline approval and launch timing. That is how we see the capacity expansion, and it'll be a good problem to have from 2030, 2031 to keep expanding. Once we have the infrastructure in the same site, we can expand another
Keep expanding 25,000 liter, another 25,000 as we need. We are always smart about this. We'll keep expanding the capacity so we never would have issue with capacity. I'll pass it to Chintu to give more light to this.
Yeah. Hi Les. Good morning. We have perfectly sized the capacity, and it's not only about how many thousands of liter, it's also about how you design and the number of bioreactors, because you need flexibility in your manufacturing and for the execution of the filing product. I think that's the key differentiator that how we have thought through that on a long-term basis to cater to our goals of filing a few biosimilars every year and same time also commercially to make sure that we have the excess capacity.
We have diversified our supply chain from U.S. and India perspective also. If it's a cost-sensitive product, we will have enough capacity in India and also in U.S. I think we are positioned well to cater to all the 20 products that we have. We have also considered this is as a global capacity.
It's not only U.S. especially, we are playing global in this market. We are pretty comfortable with the 20 products having 75,000 liters. It's all about the design and how we have thought through that. We have taken under consideration good market share, so that's also there. About the spend, it's about $30-50 million a year we'll be spending for next two, three years on a CapEx to get to the 75,000 liters.
Les good morning. This is Tasos. Around gross margin, I'll just speak in annual terms. If you think about our gross margin in 2025, full year, total company, we were at 42.9%, so let's call it 43%. My gut feel is I think we will finish 2026 at about 45%. At least at 200, we're aiming at a 200 basis points expansion.
That's going to be driven, A, by all the business units. Our affordable margins will continue to expand as we have continued to evolve the pipeline to more and more complex products with higher price points. You've been hearing this from us for the last six years now, number one.
Number two is we talked about our conscious decision to increase the gross margins in our AvKARE business. That acquisition has been a spectacular success, and by focusing more so on the government at the expense of the low margin distribution business, that continues to pay dividends.
Then finally, in our specialty business, which already has low 80s, 81%, 82% gross margins, kind of continue to drive that adoption. Those have been the drivers why our gross margin this year should be at about 45%, compared to about 43% last year.
As you think over the course of time, margins have more room to grow. More room to grow beyond the 45%. If you were here about five, six years ago, you will have heard Chirag and Chintu talking about having gross margins, in the old days, almost 50%.
This is where we are driving directionally over the next 10 years. It takes some time to get there, but we see another over the next three to four years, we look at the 45% gross margin to be closer to, call it 47% gross margin as the portfolio continues to be driven by biosimilars, which have a higher price point than the rest of the business.
Very helpful. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of David Amsellem with Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thanks. I have a few. First, can you just comment and elaborate on the insider ownership of Kashiv? That's number one. Number two is why provide long-term revenue EBITDA targets, not just 2027, but also out to 2030? What was the rationale there?
And just remind us, is the EBITDA margin expansion that you're factoring in between 2027 and 2030, how much of that is a function of just the elimination of the shared economics on biosims? And then the last question is, how much of your revenue base by 2030 do you expect will be from biosims? Thanks.
Hey, David. I'll take question number two and number three. Can you just repeat question number one for a second, if you don't mind?
Yeah. The insider ownership of Kashiv.
Insider ownership of Kashiv. Okay. Got it. Okay. Well, I'll take the first one. I'll start with the first one. The insider ownership of Kashiv, you can see it essentially in our proxy, which has been owned by the Amneal group, which has been also a big shareholders at Amneal since the beginning of time.
Ownership of the Amneal group includes both our CEOs, who've always been transparent of that, as well as people have been investors in Kashiv and also at Amneal for a very long time and key contributors to what we have built now, which is a great company.
That kind of thing addresses question number one, hopefully. Number two is, no CFO that I know likes to provide long-term guidance because it's a Catch-22 as a lot of things can happen over the course of time. Having said that, and I think you know us long enough to know, we take our long-term guide and financial commitments incredibly seriously. For us to provide long-term guidance, we have to feel pretty confident on our ability to deliver on those commitments, number one.
Number two, I think it speaks to the tremendous amount of diligence we have done in this acquisition, which it probably expands at least a year's worth of work by tens of people, in our R&D group, in our legal group, in our business development group, in our financial group, in our commercial group, to convince me and convince us as a management team to lay those numbers out for our investors.
The final thing is, I would say, why provide long-term guide? To us, it provides a focal point by which we focus 8,000 employees at Amneal and now our brand new colleagues at Kashiv. Everyone, all of our 8,000 plus employees are singularly focused to a set of financial metrics, so it eliminates ambiguity. This is what's behind why provide those targets. You got to assume, we're being prudently conservative, right?
No management team, at least that I know, wants to put out numbers which they are at risk of missing. That's kind of how we thought about and why we provide those long-term targets. Now in terms of revenue and EBITDA expansion, it's combination of both. I don't have the exact percentages, right? A lot of how much of that is in a new acquisition versus how much of that is the existing business.
As I mentioned before, we have an existing business. You look at our affordable medicines, every part of our business is growing. We are doing this deal not because we need to, because we think this is the right deal to do at the right time with the right risk parameters to drive growth for this business in 2030 and beyond.
You look at our affordable business, and that business is growing this year. We expect it to grow 7%-8%. That growth will continue, and you can model this, and biosimilars will add to that, right? Then in terms of an EBITDA basis, Q1 EBITDA was up 19%, right? Last year's EBITDA growth was 10% this year.
The base business that is growing at least adjusted EBITDA 10%. We expect this to continue and the additional add-on we expect it to come from biosimilars. That's how we think of it. It is a highly de-risked long-term forecast that is based on the growth of the existing business plus the acquisition, and it's conservative in nature. Hopefully that addressed some of your questions. Yep.
Yeah. How much of your business do you think is going to be biosimilars? What's the revenue base going to be in 2030? I know-
So the-
For now, yeah.
Yeah. If you think about 2030, for example, the guidance we're providing is between $4.3 billion and $4.5 billion, probably about $1 billion, a little over $1 billion, $1 -1.3 billion, that's going to be biosimilars.
All right. Helpful. Thanks, everyone.
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Schott with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Just two for me. Maybe just first a bigger picture question on biosimilars. Can you just talk a little bit more about how you see the competitive landscape evolving as we approach this very large cycle of biologic patent expirations? I know you mentioned there's no clear leader in the space, but do you anticipate there's going to be a more meaningful consolidation of share and there's going to just be a handful of players, or will this remain a more fragmented market as a whole?
The second one for me is just on a specific product on Lanreotide, the Somatuline Depot. Can you just talk a little bit about that opportunity as we think about 2026 in terms of market dynamics and competitive landscape and just how meaningful a product that could represent for Amneal? Thanks so much.
Yeah, thank you Chris. Competitive landscape on biosimilars, as we know, the vertically integrated players are taking more market share. Amgen obviously is one brand company that is still investing in biosimilars. The rest of the brand companies have moved out of favor for biosimilars. As you know, they're more obviously back to the innovative medicines.
That leaves Sandoz obviously clear global leader at this point, and a great company. Celltrion is coming in from a South Korean company which is expanding in the United States and globally and building a large vertically integrated platform. Samsung's doing both out licensing mainly and concentrating also different division on biosimilars.
India's Biocon has been in the biologics for over 40 years, so they're already in the United States market. Kabi with mAbxience ownership and their own, we see them as a vertically integrated player. The way it would expand is, this is why it's inflection point, that we as Amneal got the platform or getting a platform with the manufacturing capacity, with the pipeline that we execute over next five to seven years.
It requires a lot of manufacturing infrastructure, a lot of R&D infrastructure. Number of years, even with FDA's phase III gone, still will be 5+ years from the timing of starting the clone development all the way to the filing and approval, and then the IP negotiation or settlement. All those things would take five to seven years.
You can see, like in a small molecule, you have 50 companies jumping in from India and China. We don't see that. We see few companies will come from India, a few maybe from China, but they all have to build these US oriented infrastructure or regulated markets, which is a different ball game than you've been producing biologics for the emerging markets. Because of the requirements of FTAs are much higher standards than those other countries.
Amneal builds everything first with U.S. in mind. Yes, there will be more competitors. The large molecules like Keytruda or Opdivo, you will see five to 10 competitors. Some would be partnered. In niche, this is why we at Kashiv and Amneal will be focused on is in niche molecules where we will see two to three competitors.
That's how we see the competitive landscape, maybe 8-10 players. There are 118 molecules to go after. Big biosimilar void is there. That is large number of products to work on. Not everybody can do every product. As we said, our capacity capability is three to five per year. Chintu, you want to add anything to this comparison?
Still, I mean, there's a lot of high barriers of entry and science is much more complicated than the small molecule. It will cost close to $50-75 million per product. There are lots of barriers. I think it still will remain not that competitive. Plus, as Chirag stated, it takes five to seven years for a new player to build this platform and have the manufacturing and development expertise and capacity.
At Kashiv, we have a fantastic group of 600+ people, and that experience, I think, gives us the confidence of these three to five biosimilar. Competition, as Chirag stated, would be these 4-5 player might be vertically integrated, but still is largely a space for somebody to be a leader, and Amneal will be a leader by 2030.
Lanreotide, Chris, has the market dynamics changed. Cipla was in the market, had some contract manufacturing issues, so they're no longer in the market. It leaves it only with brand and the product is in high demand. We're getting calls from everybody.
We have requested FDA to expedite the approval, and they're working on it. We could be the first, it's a small molecule. Generic lanreotide in the market, and we will supply, and create another access for the hospitals and clinics as soon as possible.
This is also a global, so we have a pending approval in Europe also, and it's a highly complex product. It's a drug device combination peptide. We are looking forward to this product and its opportunity.
Your next question.
Next question, please.
Your next question comes from the line of Glen Santangelo with Barclays. Your line is open.
Yeah, good morning.
Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question. Just a couple from me. Chirag, I think everyone would generally agree strategically that a deal like this kind of makes sense, but I'm kind of curious to get your perspective on the operational complexities of sort of what's involved here. Because we were just talking to Chris's question about the evolution of the competitive landscape.
A number of the other players have decided to go more in the partnership licensing route versus the vertical integration route, and maybe that's a function of how complicated or operationally complex it is. So I'm kind of curious if you worry at all about increasing the risk profile of the company in that way.
Maybe secondarily, I wanted to talk about the 2027 EBITDA guidance that you put out today. I'm guessing you kind of realize that that number's a decent amount below what the street was already forecasting for FY 2027, and kind of implies some deceleration in the EBITDA growth rate in 2027 versus 2026. Just sort of given the $400 -500 million in synergies we sort of talked about.
You had a couple partnership deals that seem like they're on track, and maybe you'll have full ownership of them by the time they come to fruition. I'm just trying to reconcile all the pieces that you've laid out here and, as it relates to how soon we may see those synergistic benefits in 2027 and beyond. Thanks.
Thank you Glen. Let me take the first one. I'll pass this passage to Tasos for the second question. The first one, partnering versus our full economics are being vertically integrated. Yes, it is complex. This is why it took 10 years for Kashiv to build this platform with significant investment.
This is why we believe it to be a competitive light compared to all basically the small molecule. Why you can take the last few molecules, who could stay in the market, who could take the leadership position and stay all the way until the molecule needs to be delivered and produced.
First of all, it gives you full economics. Your margin expands, you have full freedom of selecting products, and it's not easy to in-license 20 products. We have 20 products by a similar basket, and we're going to add more in coming years. That freedom, the full economics. In the United States market, it makes sense to be completely vertically integrated.
As I stated before, Glen, that partnering is great, and in international market, we look to partner, and Kashiv already has partnership with the key players globally who are well set globally. I see the combined model, but mostly the companies that would be successful, if you look back in 2030 or 2035, are going to be all vertically integrated.
Just like in small molecule, there are not any companies that has survived being just marketing companies. You got to do a lot more than that, because real complications is R&D, is the IP, is manufacturing. I think the PBMs and private labels are making the marketing and sales easier, which is how it should be. I hope that answers the first question. You may have follow-up, but let me pass it to Tasos.
Good morning Glenn. I love financial modeling questions. Let's kind of put things in perspective. The first point is guidance for 2027 on EBITDA of $820 million is kind of substantially below where the Street is. I'm not sure where the Street is. Number one, I think they're about $835 million. Us providing guidance of $820 million plus compared to $835 million, I don't think it's substantially less than that.
Kind of point number one, but also obviously, we don't run our business to kind of satisfy anybody else other than us and our shareholders. Kind of point number one. Point number two, this kind of notion of kind of deceleration. This year, EBITDA, the midpoint is at $755 million, is about 10% growth versus prior year.
Even if you take the low end of what we gave you for next year of $820 million, that's about 9%. 9% versus 10%, I don't think it's a big deceleration. Number two. Number three, we feel great about growing EBITDA 9%-10%, even absorbing a strategic deal, which is going to have some dilution next year until it becomes accretive in 2028.
We feel great about being able to give our shareholders a view about next year of adjusted EBITDA up of about at least 9%, number one, and at the same time, fund incremental R&D to maximize the opportunity here of $300 billion plus of branded products going generic over the course of time.
That's kind of how we thought of it. Trying to give you guidance for 2027, that's a long time away. I think it speaks to our confidence about telling you what we think the minimum we can deliver next year. Hopefully that gave you some perspective.
Nope, that's perfect. I appreciate both those answers. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Glenn.
Your next question comes from the line of Ashwani Verma with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hey, this is Dee from UBS. I'm just asking questions on behalf of Ashwani. Thanks for taking our questions. I have two. The first one, and I apologize if this has been discussed before. The first one, how do you think about the lenalidomide market opportunity? It seems like there's just limited competition in this molecule. I just wonder how confident are you about the approval timeline in 3Q, and what will be the gating items for the launch?
Then my second question on gross margin. I think it was discussed before, in annual term, it's about 40%, 45%. Then Q1, I think this quarter is about 48%. Does that mean we're going to see some gross margin normalization later this year? If you can give some clarification on that would be helpful. Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you Dee. The lenalidomide, the gating item is only the FDA approval. We're ready to supply, and it's a great opportunity for Amneal. I'll pass it to Tasos on the gross margin.
Yeah. Hey, good morning Dee. How are you? Yeah. Our Q1 gross margin bolstered us for a while. It was just a record quarter, which was overall up 510 basis points versus Q1 of last year. Just to kind of explain the sustainability of a 510 basis point, it's kind of hard to keep repeating quarter after quarter.
This is why I think we have a little bit more modest gross margin expansion for the rest of the year. This is why, even though with a little, call it a little bit more modest growth the rest of the year, we still feel confident that overall company gross margins this year in 2026 should be closer to 45%, maybe a little better, compared to about 43% last year. Hopefully that's helpful.
Yep. Thank you.
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Chirag Patel for closing remarks.
Well, thank you, everyone, and have a great day.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.