All right. We're gonna go ahead and get started with our next session. For those of you who don't know me, I am Matt Niknam, the communications infrastructure analyst here at Deutsche Bank. We're very pleased to welcome back American Tower CFO, Rod Smith. Rod, welcome back.
Yeah, thank you, Matt. Nice to see everyone. Thanks for coming.
Thank you, thank you. You guys have been busy, as always.
Yeah.
You just reported fourth quarter results last week, gave an initial outlook for 2023. Maybe just to start, if you can talk about some of the key highlights from the outlook and your top priorities for AMT for this year?
Yeah, sounds great. We rolled out our outlook for 2023 just a week ago. We're really excited about 2023. you know, I'll start by just reiterating the level of confidence that we're seeing and that we have in the U.S. growth rates. We outlined a 5% Organic Tenant Billings Growth for the U.S. business here for 2023. We have nearly 90% of that revenue and the underlying revenue growth fully contracted. The level of confidence is really, really high there. Then we're seeing a similar level of growth around the globe through our international properties. We're seeing some really compelling growth in Europe, you know, 7%-8% growth rates in Europe, which is really nice to see.
Our CoreSite business in the US is also coming off of a very good 2022, where we set records, a record level of new business or new bookings in that business, which was really compelling. Those new bookings now will be deployed in 2023 and 2024, so it gives us a multiple-year view of kinda some good compelling growth rates. We're looking at, you know, upper single-digit revenue growth for CoreSite, as we head into 2023, for the 2023 year.
In addition to a really good backdrop where we're seeing demand for our assets in the US and around the globe, both on the tower side as well as CoreSite, really underpinned by continued growth in mobile data consumption, as well as 5G deployments in the US and in Europe and other select markets. In addition to all that, we're continuing to build thousands of sites around the globe. We'll build over 4,000 sites. We typically have a really robust pipeline of new towers to build around the globe. We're coming off a year where we built nearly 7,000 last year. We're building another 4,000 or so this year.
That internally deployed capital towards those new builds generates a double-digit NOI yield, kind of across the on average, kind of throughout the properties that we own. That's a really good source of capital performance for us that we're really excited about. Our priorities, you know, really it's driving organic growth. It's making sure that we do everything we can throughout the course of 2022 to achieve our outlook on Organic Tenant Billings Growth, revenue growth, EBITDA, AFFO per share growth. That is mission number one. It's also positioning our portfolio for future growth. That's fine-tuning the portfolio as well as adding additional assets to it.
You probably heard on the call from last week, we continue to be in a de-levering mode, we are looking to de-lever our business, reduce the amount of debt, reduce the amount of floating rate exposure debt that we have. That really will be a key priority, as well. Those are some of the priorities that we have. We also are very focused on ESG around the globe, particularly reducing carbon footprint, and improving power systems and reducing our reliance on diesel fuel throughout Africa. That's going very well. It's something that we're really excited about.
In recent years, obviously, you've expanded scale. You've become now, I think, the largest digital infrastructure platform globally. Can you talk about the broader strategic vision for AMT and how the mix of your U.S. and international towers, alongside the new data center assets from CoreSite, enhance your strategic position over the next decade?
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we certainly love our tower portfolio. I would start out by just making the statement that we are a tower company. We're a global tower company. We have over 220,000 towers across more than a couple dozen markets around the globe on five different continents. Within that, our U.S. business is really the center point of that portfolio, and it's got really good growth characteristics underpinned by really strong counterparties in terms of our contracts, the contract structures.
Everything is right where we want it to be, and we feel really confident, not only about the 5% organic growth in our U.S. business this year, but maintaining that level of growth on average out to 2027, which is really important for us in terms of driving that stability in our earnings and earnings growth over time. Then we have properties in Europe and Africa and Latin America and in India that all complement our U.S. business. We've added to our portfolio in recent years the Telxius portfolio of towers in Europe, which is performing extremely well.
We're guiding towards a 7%-8% organic growth rate for our tower business in Europe for 2023, which is a very compelling growth rate, and it's because of the quality of the assets and the contracts and the contract terms that we have within the Telxius portfolio. We also added the CoreSite business, which is a really very well, high quality, differentiated set of cloud-centric data centers across the U.S., which again, that portfolio is of a unique quality and is driving really good growth for us. And the reason it's unique quality, in our eyes is that it is cloud-centric. We've got 2023, you know, cloud on-ramps kinda spread throughout the buildings that we have. We also have nearly 500 network companies within these facilities.
We've got about 28 buildings spread really well throughout the U.S. in terms of how those centers relate to our tower portfolio in the U.S. We have a really good accumulation of enterprise customers that are in these facilities as well. That really is the key, is this interconnection richness of these facilities. Cloud on-ramps, network companies, as well as enterprise customers, that's what makes this business so differentiated in our view. It's what drives and maintains a high single-digit growth rate on the revenue side for us over the last couple of years, is because the customers that are in these facilities wanna stay within the facility so they can continue to enjoy the interconnection, and they grow their interconnections, and the model works really well.
There is the optionality upside of taking those cloud on-ramps, those interconnection-rich centers, and pushing them out closer to our tower sites to develop the mobile edge. That's really the upside opportunity, which could be pretty significant, albeit in a very nascent stage at the moment. That's, you know, a pretty interesting upside potential. We, you know, we love our international properties with towers across Africa, Latin America, and in Asia. We're building a lot of assets throughout that region that drives additional growth. We're seeing high levels of growth in different markets at different times over time. That's really compelling. The one thing that we see in all of our market is growing data consumption, you know, at the tower level, and that's what really underpins and drives our long-term value creation.
On India, one of the interesting data points I think that came out of last week's call is you noted you're looking at potentially bringing in an equity partner into that business. Can you talk a little bit about the strategic rationale here, where the process sits today, and maybe how sizable of a stake you may be looking to sell?
Sure, yeah. The first thing I would say is it's not different than other things that we've done around the globe. We've got a pretty diverse pool of capital that we can tap into. We use private capital in our CoreSite transaction. We've also used private capital in our Telxius transaction over in Europe. We originally had a joint venture in India with the Tata Group. Macquarie was actually an investor with us in India in the past. The idea of having joint venture partners is nothing new. It's nothing unfamiliar to us. We also had a joint venture partner in our Africa business when we first launched the Africa business. That is something that we've done before.
It's part of our toolkit in terms of being able to access capital and have creative ways to finance our properties around the globe. With that said, we did announce on the earnings call last week that we are investigating the possibility of bringing in private capital to join us in our India business and go back to a joint venture like India was in the past. In terms of the size stake, we're really not sure what that would be. We talk about this process of looking into private capital as being opportunistic. What that really means is we don't have to do it. We may do it, we may not do it. It really depends on, you know, how the process unfolds.
The things that we want to achieve and the reason we would be looking at this really is because it fits into our model of the way we finance things around the globe. The other thing that it does is that we wanna be exposed to the India market. We think the India market is really a very interesting market, high population, democratic country. We see the bandwidth consumption of the India consumers is sort of off the charts. It's got an environment in the wireless segment that's becoming more stable over time in terms of getting through the consolidation that has happened over the last several years. Now it's down to Jio, Airtel, VIL with BSNL as a fourth player. It's got a good construct of four wireless carriers.
The long-term opportunity is there, and we wanna be exposed to that. You know, to be quite frank, there's also been a heightened level of volatility in the last several years and certainly even before that with the consolidation. We think that that volatility could continue or persist for another couple of years. Balancing creative financing of our assets like we've done around the world, also reducing our exposure to that near-term volatility while remaining exposed to India for the long-term potential value creation, that's kinda what we're thinking, balancing the volatility and the long-term opportunity.
If I maybe frame how sizable this could be, if I think about Europe and if I think about the data center business, I think they're roughly at about 30% a piece or a third. Is it something similar you're looking to do in India?
I, you know, I wouldn't, I wouldn't necessarily draw that comparison. We've got an open mind when we think about India. It's really trying to achieve a balance between protecting ourselves and our investors from the near-term potential volatility within India while preserving the long-term potential value creation. Exactly the best way to do that, to accomplish those goals, the best way to structure a joint venture, we'll be working through the details of that. Certainly, if we decide to do anything, we'll let our investors know. I would also reiterate that this is an opportunistic exercise. We may or may not bring a private capital partner into India. We wanna be upfront and transparent with investors. We are working through a process, so we wanted to let people know.
Got it. Just last question on this. In terms of like potential uses of proceeds in the event something does happen, how do you think about that?
Yeah, my sense is the use of proceeds there might be to delever. I mean, when it comes to capital sources, I think everyone knows, first and foremost, we're a REIT, we provide a dividend, we have a growing dividend. That's important to us. We also invest in internally deployed capital for build to suit. This year in 2023, we're gonna deploy about $1.7 billion of capital. That's down slightly from where we were in 2022. We deployed about $1.9 billion.
The reason we've pared that back a little bit is because of the fluctuations in cost of capital and looking at making sure we're getting the right returns everywhere where we deploy capital, and also to prioritize delevering and making sure that we're reducing our exposure to fixed or floating rate debt and also re-reducing our overall exposure on the debt side, because of the uncertainty that remains around interest rates. We're very aware of that and look to to delever. To the extent that we have proceeds coming out of India, delevering, may very well be the highest priority that we have in the near term.
Then we always balance that after we get through, internally deployed capital, you know, paying the dividend, making sure that we're treating our balance sheet and the leverage, you know, the way that we want, then we could look at M&A or share buybacks and those sorts of things. As we've said on the call, and I think we've been pretty consistent saying this for a few months, we don't see anything in our pipeline today that would say that there was a large scale M&A opportunity in our near future. We just don't see it. You know, We bought back a few shares in Q4 of 2022. You may see us do that again as we go forward.
You know, something that's very opportunistic, and we'll do it if it makes sense and we'll delever if that's our best path.
Got it. Got it. Okay. If we think about sort of AFFO per share growth, obviously there's some moving parts with 2023, but, the question premise more around just the multiyear sort of aspirational target you'd laid out in the past, talk or aspiring for double-digit AFFO per share growth, on a multi-year basis. I'm just wondering, you know, if you can maybe update us on your comfort level visibility around these targets from a high level and maybe walk through the very basic assumptions tied in with organic growth, margin expansion and leverage.
Yeah, absolutely. We did a couple of years ago, we laid out some longer-term guidance that really came in two distinct pieces. One was the 5% Organic Tenant Billings Growth rate around Organic Tenant Billings Growth in the U.S. What we've got really high visibility into that. We're very confident in our ability to achieve that out through the year of 2027. That part of the long-term guidance we feel very good about. And again, of the 5% growth in the U.S., 90% of that is already fully contracted for this year, and almost 75% of that is fully contracted out through 2027. That's the underlying revenue as well as the revenue growth in that target. That's a really important, you know, long-term metric for us that we focus on quite a bit.
The other piece of the longer-term guidance was an aspirational goal of achieving 10% AFFO per share growth. There's been a few headwinds that have come up since we rolled out that guidance, most notably, it comes in really three, you know, three sections. Number one is we've seen a sharp, persistent rise in interest rates over the last couple of years. That was not something that was in our original underwriting of that longer-term goal. We've also seen inflation rise and spike around the globe, which is primarily why interest rates have been rising in the US and Europe and other places to combat that inflation. One of the consequences of that higher inflation and differing monetary policies of administrations around the world is FX and devaluation of emerging market currencies to the US.
We've had kind of a couple of years of persistent headwinds on the FX front. You're seeing that again in 2023. You saw it in 2021. That's a noticeable headwind for us in terms of achieving that double-digit AFFO per share growth. The third headwind that I would point to is really the volatility with our customers in India, notably, Vodafone Idea over India. We've announced a $75 million revenue reserve for the year of 2023. We took nearly a $100 million revenue reserve in 2022 for the same customer. Of course, that wasn't necessarily in our underwriting when we first put that goal out there.
If you look at the earnings presentation that we released a week ago, you'll see the pieces of these headwinds kind of laid out in an AFFO chart. You know, we announced a negative 2% growth rate on AFFO per share. 2 percentage points of that, almost two percentage points of that is the VIL revenue reserve. You take that off or normalize, so that would be around 0%. 8% headwind is coming directly from rising interest rates. The 1% is roughly coming through the FX line. With all that said, if you normalize for interest rates, FX, and the VIL volatility, our core tower business, the portfolio of towers we have around the globe, is driving an upper single-digit core kind of a growth rate.
We feel really good about that for 2023 and beyond. You know, that's what I would say about the longer term target, is our tower portfolio is performing exceptionally well around the globe, with a couple of noticeable exceptions in these headwinds around interest rates, FX, and VIL volatility, all of which we don't think persist into the long term. Certainly, when it comes to the interest rate environment, which is the biggest headwind of 8% headwind in this year, we don't expect that to reoccur in 2024. We do believe, and we think, and we expect interest rates to peak and flatten through the year. To the extent they're not rising into next year, maybe even taper down a little bit like a lot of people think. That headwind from interest rates won't be there in 2024.
That could add eight percentage points to our AFFO, you know, growth rate. We'll see what happens with the volatility with VIL and what happens with FX. Certainly, you strip out some of these things, and interest rates being a very noticeable piece. You know, our core portfolio can certainly be expected to grow in the upper single digits kind of range over the next several years on a core AFFO growth rate.
We'll get to India a little bit later in the discussion, but I wanna maybe dig in a little bit more into the US. From a high level, if you could just talk about what you're seeing across the three nationals in Dish. What's baked into the outlook for 2023? 'Cause I did see, I thought it was pretty impressive, 50% increase in new colocation and amendment activity this year. Maybe we could just touch on that from a high level.
Yeah. We see a lot of good things happening in the U.S. marketplace. It's a really strong market, really strong wireless carriers kind of across the board. We are seeing a significant increase in the contribution to our Organic Tenant Billings Growth from colocations and amendments. In 2022, we posted about $150 million of new colocation amendment revenue in our organic growth. In 2023, we expect that number to be more like $220 million. A pretty significant acceleration in that level of new business. Of course, I think everyone in this room appreciates that new business stays on our towers for a long time, and it creates a lot of value. That's important.
That step-up in revenue really is underpinned by the activity levels of the carriers kind of across the board. We are seeing the three main carriers all being active, deploying, you know, C-band spectrum, higher band spectrum, putting additional radio heads and antennas up in the towers. That activity is happening. 5G is being rolled out, and we're seeing the mid-band spectrum on an awful lot of our sites. We also have Dish in the assumption there, and they're deploying a greenfield 5G-only network. You know, the one comment I would make there is in our guidance, we have the minimum contracted revenue from Dish. That's what makes up our numbers. We're not taking any risk there in terms of deployment, you know, speed or cadence or anything like that. It's minimum contracted revenue.
That's what's in our, in our guidance. The other thing I would say with the, with the three, you know, large wireless carriers here, they're all active. We see them all being active. Our revenue on a short-term basis is more closely correlated with basically the contracts that we have, the way our holistic deals work. You may see some acceleration in activity or a slight pullback in activity. It doesn't mean that our revenue changes. We have been able to enter into holistic agreements with all three of the primary carriers in the U.S., which basically takes a certain level of activity, grants the carriers the right to perform that activity on our sites. It prices it up, values it, and then it spreads that out over a number of years.
That's what gives us the high level of visibility into the revenue. That's why we have confidence of 90% of our revenue and revenue growth for 2023 is fully contracted. That really means if the carriers stopped their activity in the U.S., we would still, you know, generate roughly 5% organic growth because it's all contracted. That goes out over a multi-year period. Even without the benefits, the clear benefits of our holistic structures, which help a lot, I think, in our business, we are seeing the carriers are all active. They're all deploying higher band spectrum. They're all deploying new antennas and radios on our sites in the U.S.
You just gave 2023 guidance. You alluded a little bit to the visibility into 2024. I don't mean to be, you know-
Yeah.
like every analyst.
Yeah.
The data point and ask for more, but I will nonetheless, because I'm sure it's on a lot of investors' minds. If I think about Verizon yesterday talked about decreasing CapEx this year and next year. T-Mobile's talked about a pretty sizable decline this year. AT&T's talked about a pretty sizable decline next year. All of which to say, your outlook calls for 5% growth through 2027. The three big customers are talking about sizable declines publicly. I know the visibility you've got into 2023 and maybe even into 2024, but from a multi-year basis, can you talk about the confidence level in light of what they're talking about in terms of more meaningful declines in spend?
Yeah. I think, you know, some of the rhetoric you hear from the wireless carriers doesn't necessarily affect our near-term revenue guidance or even the revenue guidance going out to 2027. I'll reiterate one point. We just talked about the fact that 2023, we have 90% of that guide for 2023 is fully contracted. 75% of the guide from 2023 out to 2027 is fully contracted, so still a really high percentage, not as high as 90%. The way the holistic agreements work is the carriers, they can ebb and flow a little bit in terms of their activity level, and we still have really good level of confidence and visibility into our revenue.
The further you get out on this path between now and 2027, the less visibility we have, but we still have an awful lot of visibility. I would just say that we are very confident in a 5% Organic Tenant Billings Growth in the U.S. on average from now out till 2027. The carriers may ebb and flow in terms of how they deploy capital or where they deploy capital. One thing that I think we can all agree on is the data consumption on the networks and that go through tower sites is gonna continue to increase throughout that time. That means there will continue to be radios deployed, antennas deployed out at the cell sites. Over time, we're very confident in that.
We have a really strong conviction in terms of our US growth rates being around 5% between now and out through 2027.
While we're on the U.S., I'm gonna just jump to the data center business, 'cause we're a little over a year now, I think that's the acquisition of CoreSite. Sounds like you had some very strong results in 2022. If you can maybe just talk a little bit about your outlook for that business in 2023, I guess maybe more broadly, the vision for that CoreSite platform and how you may be looking to maybe develop or cultivate that under your ownership?
Yeah, absolutely. We've owned the CoreSite assets for a little over a year, I guess. It's performed exceptionally well for us. We love the asset. The quality of the asset is on or above the expectation that we had when we first acquired the asset. We're really pleased with the asset. I'll reiterate the fact that in 2022, CoreSite set a record in terms of new bookings, new business activity, kind of a clear, undisputed record. The activity level couldn't have been greater, certainly surpassed our expectation. Much of that new business in booking won't be deployed until 2023, 2024, maybe even a little into 2025.
That gives a pathway and visibility into, you know, growth in the next couple of years as we kind of take that backlog and actually deploy it throughout these facilities we have in the U.S. In 2022, we saw upper single-digit revenue growth rate. Economic growth was really solid. 2023, we're projecting that to be, again, upper single digit growth rates for that business. Because of the high bookings we saw in 2022, we think that that upper single digit growth rate can persist for the next couple of years as we continue to deploy the things that the activity that we've already got booked. We're in line for maybe not a record year again this year, but a really solid, strong level of new bookings for that business.
That's what's driving the capital investments in that business too. We've announced that we'll deploy about $360 million in new capital investments into the CoreSite set of assets. That's primarily to replace the capacity that we sold in 2022 that we'll be deploying over the next couple of years. We always wanna make sure that we stay ahead of the curve in terms of having capacity available to sell to meet the demand. The way we look at it is we wanna have at least two years of net absorption or net demand for these buildings, so that when the customer wants and needs space or interconnection, you have it available to sell to them. That's how you get the smoothest kind of, you know, growth rate over a multiyear period. We're doing that.
We see really good growth. The other things that I would say are all the metrics in this business are really lining up well for us. We're seeing, you know, positive growth when it comes to renewals. When a customer contract expires, they're renewing those contracts, and we're seeing a 3%-4% escalation. Many data center businesses see a decline in that rent when the customer renews. Because of the interconnection richness of our facility, the fact that our customers are enjoying a lot more than just power and space, they're enjoying connecting into networks and cloud on-ramps and other customers, they need to be in those locations, and they're willing to pay, you know, that escalation of between 2% and 4%. We're gonna be in the 3%-4% again in 2023.
We're also seeing churn at the lower end of kind of the range that we see for this business. We have a target range of about 6%-8%. We're gonna be, you know, in the 6.5% range or so. We're seeing upper single-digit growth rate on the interconnection. That's the amount and pricing that people, customers pay to interconnect with other customers. A lot of that upper single-digit interconnection growth is existing customers wanting to interconnect with more people within the facilities, or just a natural price increase on the interconnections that they have. We're seeing really strong growth from that perspective. The business couldn't be performing better in our expectations. There's limited downside, really high-quality assets with really good growth.
We have the optionality around bringing those cloud on-ramps out close to our tower sites, connecting our tower sites into these cloud on-ramps to build a new ecosystem that could be at the base of the tower, which we refer to as, you know, edge compute or an edge connection, there, where you actually have cloud access point, networking companies, and enterprises all accessing networks and clouds right out of tower sites.
Is that a 2023 event, or is that more, you know, beyond?
It's really beyond. We're in very nascent stages there. You guys know the industry, you know, talks quite a bit about this. It's still a very early stage. You may see us deploy a little capital, build a few facilities, but it will really gain traction over the next couple of years.
We think the combination of our, in the U.S., 43,000 sites in really good locations with the carriers that we have as customers on the towers and the amount of base radios that are at our tower locations, and with our commercial relationships that we have now with the cloud players within our CoreSite facilities and the enterprise customers, the tech companies, as well as the networking companies, that is a perfect marriage to help drive the edge compute facilities onto our properties and marry in our customer base at both ends in a unique, smaller, facility we refer to as edge.
I wanna pivot to international. Maybe we can start with India. If you can maybe update us on the latest you're seeing in that market. Also just talk about what's embedded in terms of your assumptions from Vodafone Idea for 2023.
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, India is a place we've been in India for a long time. We think it holds great promise. I think everyone knows it's one of the largest democracies on the planet, over 1.3 billion people. The carriers invest $5 billion-$6 billion a year into their wireless network, so it's got a compelling amount of investment happening. The construct and the backdrop in India looks pretty healthy. It's got 3 commercial carriers plus a government-backed carrier in BSNL. The carrier consolidation has ended, and the market is likely in its sort of final format, you know, going forward with that number of carriers. We're seeing, you know, good gross growth in the 5%-6% range. We have a 2% escalator in the market there.
Inflation in India is running a little bit higher than that, but that is one of the markets where we've got a fixed escalator. India and the U.S., a little bit in France, that's where we have fixed escalators. Other than that, everywhere else around the globe, by and large, we're protected from inflation through escalators that are linked to local inflation throughout Germany, Spain, Africa, Latin America, is the way that it works. You know, you get the 5%-6% gross growth in India, which is really the carriers deploying amendments and new colocations on our assets. We get revenue from all the carriers, the three commercial carriers as well as BSNL. We have a 2% escalator. We have churn that runs in the 3, 4%-5% range kinda year-to-year.
You put all that together, we're in and around 4% growth expectation for 2023. That is the highest level of growth that we've seen in that market in a long time, many years. Last year, we were about 2.5%, and before that, it was negative because of the higher level of churn. We've seen churn subside quite a bit in getting down into that mid-single digit range. From that perspective, it's a pretty healthy market. There is volatility when it comes to VIL. We did announce last week that we have a $75 million revenue reserve. It is important to point out that that revenue reserve is accounted for outside of the Organic Tenant Billings Growth.
That 4% organic tenant billings growth is not negatively impacted by the $75 million revenue reserve. We have a $75 million revenue reserve as it was in our outlook for 2023. Last year, we took a $100 million, roughly, revenue reserve for VIL. VIL, you know, payment is somewhat volatile, has been the last couple of years. We were encouraged to see the government announce their conversion of the 2, nearly $2 billion of near-term AGR interest into equity...
Yes
... into VIL. I think as a return, they're gonna be a 33% holder of equity in VIL. I think that they become the largest shareholder there. You know, that's what's in our outlook for 2023. When it comes to VIL, there is more work that they need to do. They know that, the government knows that, but we were very encouraged with the conversion that happened. We think that that is the first step towards getting their payments with us more stabilized. We look forward to them raising additional equity, raising additional debt within their business, addressing their capital structure needs.
And we've been supportive for the last couple years and we do, you know, look forward to VIL regaining its footing and being a good solid participant in the wireless segment, being a good solid customer of ours. That's really our near-term focus, is supporting them to get to a place where the value creation over the long term through the partnership of us and Vodafone becomes very healthy. They've got some more work to do before the volatility completely subsides.
What %, if you could just remind us, what % of your annual property revenue comes from VIL today?
From VIL, if you look at India, we're in the upper single digits comes from India, and within India, about 40% of our revenue in India comes from VIL. VIL remains our largest customer within India, but India in its totality is, you know, 6%-7% of our overall revenue. I think upper single digits.
Got it. Got it. Okay. I wanna bounce maybe to Europe, and we can try to hit some of the regions in the time we have left.
Okay.
It's an area that's seen actually pretty meaningful improvement in growth Europe has in recent years. It's an area obviously you've scaled up in with the Telxius acquisition. Maybe we can touch a little bit on the outlook for that region in 2023.
Yeah, the outlook. I mean, we're very encouraged by what we see in Europe. We're looking at another year of high single-digit Organic Tenant Billings Growth. We guided to a 7%-8% Organic Tenant Billings Growth number in Europe. I mean, that really is a function of the acquisition that we've done a couple of years ago with the Telxius assets. It's the quality of those assets, the quality of the counterparty, and specifically the terms and conditions within the contract itself. We are able to monetize inflation in Europe through that contract. We are able to monetize amendments through the through the anchor tenant in the Telefónica case. We've also been able to minimize the churn and the churn potential in that market through contractual terms.
You put all that together, and that's what has changed that market for us from a low single-digit growth rate to a high single-digit growth rate.
If we think about LATAM and Africa, I know both regions have had a little bit more elevated churn tied to some M&A consolidation, maybe market exit impact from some players. Maybe we can just step through the outlook for both of those regions and how we're thinking about churn, you know, how long maybe that persists in the interim?
Yeah. Yeah, I'll start with Latin America. In Latin America, we do have an elevated level of churn this year. We do think that it could be the peak year of churn. For that region, our guidance was around a little greater than 2% Organic Tenant Billings Growth in Latin America. And that comes with a churn headwind that's up in the 8% range or so. You know, not an immaterial amount of churn. The churn is coming really from two primary places. One is with a customer up in Mexico, Telefónica, who I think most people know announced a couple years ago they were gonna become an MVNO and run on the AT&T network.
They're churning off of a lot of the wireless towers that they're on, and they're keeping their core, but they're joining AT&T on the front end at the tower site. We're working through that churn. We do think this could be the last year of that elevated churn from Telefónica up in Mexico. We also have a churn from Oi, centered down in Brazil. That is beginning in 2023. You know, there is a contribution to that 8% churn for Latin America coming from Oi. Just to make a couple of comments on Oi in terms of sizing it and how long we think it may end up taking. Oi is about $100 million of revenue to us down in Brazil. That's broken up into two of their companies.
A third of it is with their wireline company, which remains a customer of ours. We think that revenue is secured. A third of the $100 million is secure, we believe, over the long term because it's with the wireless parent or the landline parent. On the wireless side, that's two-thirds of the $100 million in revenue. That was carved up between the three incumbents in Brazil. We believe that they're gonna keep probably 40% of that revenue and maybe churn off of 60%. It's $100 million in total. Two-thirds is with the wireless side that was carved up between the three incumbents. Of that two-thirds, 40% is, you know, is likely to remain, which means 60% is likely to churn.
That churn is beginning this year in 2023 and probably happens over the next couple of years. You put all that together, the 8% churn is probably a peak churn this year and it comes down, but it probably stays elevated, compared to normal years because of the Oi churn that'll last another couple of years. We get through another couple of years, and we think churn in Latin America could really moderate, come back to normal, and we'll see much more normalized Organic Tenant Billings Growth in Latin America. That's what we see in Latin America. In Africa, I'll just hit that, you know, quickly. We do have some churn events in Africa as well. We've got Cell C down in South Africa that's churning off. We also have AirtelTigo in Ghana that's churning off.
This year, I think we've got about 6% churn in our organic growth rate. You know, that's an elevated level of churn, and we do think that that'll begin to trend down over the next couple of years, as well get more into normalized churn and be able to keep our growth rates in Africa, you know, where we've enjoyed them, which is in upper single, you know, digit growth rates in Africa on an Organic Tenant Billings Growth basis.
We covered a lot of bases. I know we're coming up on time. Just last question to sort of tie this all together. If we're sitting here next year and you're looking back, what are maybe one or two big milestones you would have liked to achieve over the next 12 months?
Yeah. Number one absolutely is organic growth, hitting all the targets that we laid out in our guidance. That covers organic growth, revenue growth, EBITDA growth, AFFO per share growth, certainly. We're gonna continue to de-lever the business, you know, and make progress on our CoreSite business and developing the edge to further prepare it for, you know, what might be significant revenue growth in the future, you know, from the edge. It's also around preparing our tower portfolio globally for continued gross growth over time.
It's a great place to end it. Rod, thank you very much.
Yeah, thank you.
Appreciate it.
Matt. Thanks, everyone.