Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2011

May 18, 2010

Speaker 1

This time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Eric Cerny. Mr.

Cerny, please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our Q1 earnings call. Earlier this morning, we released our Q1 sales and earnings balance sheet income statement and an updated financial history. Please feel free to reference these materials available on our website. This call is being recorded and the replay may be accessed through the Internet at abercrombie.com under the Investors section.

Before we begin, I remind you that any forward looking statements we may make today are subject to the Safe Harbor statements found in our SEC filings. Today's earnings call will be limited to 1 hour. We will begin the call with a few brief remarks from Mike, followed by a review of the financial performance for the quarter from Jonathan Ramsden and Brian Logan. After our prepared comments, we'll be available to take your questions for as long as time permits. Please limit yourself to one question so that we can speak with as many callers as possible.

As a reminder, the after tax operating results for rule for 2 rule for 2,009 prior periods are now included in discontinued operations on the income statement in comparisons to prior year, therefore, generally exclude rule. Now to Mike. Good morning, guys. Thank you for joining us. Looking back on

Speaker 3

the Q1, I would summarize it as one in which we continue to focus on the key long term drivers of our business that we laid out in our last earnings call. We are pleased with the progress we made, but there We continue to be very focused on achieving sustainable, profitable growth in both our domestic and international businesses. Internationally, results for the quarter were very encouraging. We opened 3 new Hollister Mall based stores in the U. K, in Aberdeen, Cardiff and Newcastle, and all three are doing very well and exceeding our projections.

The 3 Hollister U. K. Stores in the comp base each comped positively for the quarter. Domestically, we have taken steps in the right direction and have seen some progress evidenced by our overall domestic business, which was positive for the quarter, including Hollister. The continued outperformance of the Abercrombie and Fitch Tourist and high volume stores domestically is a significant consideration in our review of the domestic footprint of the brand.

Coming back to international and growth opportunity there. By the end of the year, we expect to have 34 Hollister stores in Europe and we are working very hard to to increase the pace of international expansion. We have been adding resources where we need to and are at various stages of laying the groundwork in more than 10 additional countries. Our intent is to ensure that we can keep a steady pipeline of new openings and we remain very excited about the opportunities we see ahead of us. We are balancing this accelerated pace with ensuring we do not overstore particular regions or sacrifice quality and end up in locations where we don't belong.

We want to ensure that the locations we choose make sense from a brand perspective, a location perspective and of course, a financial perspective. We have made some tough decisions this quarter to pull back on a small number of locations that do not meet all these criteria and we will be very disciplined in how we approach this. We will not sacrifice quality for a short term sales opportunity if it doesn't make sense for us in the long run. Turning to Abercrombie and Fitch, we announced this morning that we will be opening a flagship in Madrid in 2011. Beyond that, we are looking at around 15 additional flagship opportunities in Europe and Asia through 2012.

Again, we will diligent and disciplined in how we approach this, but we are very excited about the opportunities ahead of us. We also announced today that we will open our 1st international Gilly Hicks store in London Gilly Hicks store in London

Speaker 2

later this year. This will be

Speaker 3

a great opportunity for us to see if the international reaction to the Gilly Hicks brand is as strong as the reaction we have seen for A and F and Hollister. With that, I'll hand the call over to Jonathan.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. For the Q1, the company's reported net sales increased 14% to $687,800,000 and comp store sales increased 1%. Our direct to consumer which was up 42% for the quarter and new international stores were the primary drivers of our reported sales growth for the quarter. International sales in total were $119,000,000 and up 102% for the quarter. A 102% for the quarter.

Combining domestic DTC and same store sales for the quarter, our overall domestic like for like sales for the quarter were up 4%. Our gross margin rate for the quarter was 62.7 percent, down seventy basis points. The erosion of gross margin was primarily due to a 10% decrease in AUR for the quarter, which was somewhat greater on a mix adjusted basis. We expect some further gross margin erosion in the 2nd quarter. MG and A for the quarter was 90 $6,600,000 up 12 percent from $86,300,000 in the Q1 last year, due primarily to higher net legal expenses, incentive compensation accruals and marketing expenses.

MG and A for the quarter included total equity compensation of $8,300,000 as compared to $7,900,000 last year, somewhat higher than anticipated at the beginning of the quarter. For the Q2, we expect MG and A to be approximately in line with the Q1 in dollar terms, which was roughly half of the increase over last year's Q2 being driven by higher incentive and equity compensation. As a percentage of sales, stores and distribution expense for the quarter decreased to 51.5 percent of sales from 50 point 9 percent last year. Store occupancy costs for the quarter were approximately $159,000,000 or 23.1 percent of sales compared to $154,000,000 or 25.5 percent of sales in the Q1 last year. For the Q2, we anticipate occupancy costs to be a little higher in dollar terms, also for increasing more significantly in dollar terms for Q3 and Q4.

All other stores and distribution costs were approximately $196,000,000 or 28.5 percent of sales for the quarter, and we anticipate a similar or slightly lower percentage for the Q2. Operating loss for the quarter was $18,700,000 compared to a loss of $33,900,000 last year. The tax rate for the quarter from continuing operations was a benefit of 39.5 percent compared to a 39.5 percent compared to a benefit of 28.9 percent last year.

Speaker 5

The tax

Speaker 4

rate for the Q1 included a modest net benefit from both the settlement of tax audits and the net release of valuation allowances. The reported net loss for the quarter was $11,800,000 or $0.13 per basic and diluted share compared to a net loss of $23,100,000 or $0.26 per share last year from continuing operations. Our international stores performed strongly during the quarter. The new U. K.

Hollister stores are exceeding our projections. And as Mike mentioned earlier, the 3 U. K. Hollister stores in the comp base each comped positively for the quarter. On an overall basis, 4 wall margins for international stores were over 30% for the quarter.

Turning to 2010 store openings, we remain on track to open an A and F flagships in Fukuoka and Copenhagen, as well as a Hollister Epic store on Fifth Avenue in New York in the 4th quarter. We now have confirmed plans to open approximately 25 international mall based Hollister stores in 2010, skewed towards the end of the year. Additionally, we anticipate opening 1 A and F store in Canada. As Mike mentioned earlier, today we also announced plans to open the 1st international Gilly Hicks store in London in Q4. Domestically, we expect to open 3 AMS stores, 2 kids stores, 3 Hollister stores and 2 Gilly Hicks stores, including a prototype of the smaller size store format we've been working on for some time.

We also expect to open 5 outlet stores. This morning, we announced plans to open an A and F flagship in Madrid in 2011 and we remain on track to open an A and F flagship in Paris in 2011. The Madrid store is a smaller store with a footprint of approximately 14,000 square feet. It is in a great location and we expect it to be a successful and profitable store on conservative volume projections. Mike mentioned earlier that we are working hard to increase the pace of our international expansion, while remaining very disciplined in our approach to this.

Based on current store opening plans and other capital expenditures, we now expect total capital expenditures for 2010 to be in the range of €200,000,000 to €225,000,000 including $165,000,000 to $190,000,000 related to new stores, store refreshes and remodels and approximately $35,000,000 related to IT, PC and other home office projects. This is down from the prior estimate due to lower store construction costs than previously estimated, a lower number of expected 2010 openings, other timing shifts and foreign currency impact. During the quarter, we opened 3 Hollister Mall based stores in the UK. Domestically, we opened 2 A and F stores, 1 kids store and 1 Hollister store. Additionally, we closed 3 domestic stores, including 1 A and F store, 1 kids store and 1 Hollister store.

We continue to review underperforming domestic stores with potential closures and expect to have a clearer view on that by the end of the Q2. More broadly, we continue to work on each of the margin improvement factors we outlined in our last earnings call, and we'll provide updates on these in subsequent earnings call as appropriate. Inventory for the quarter was up 17% on a cost per square foot basis, excluding rules. This was somewhat higher than anticipated at the beginning of the quarter, partially due to timing of receipts and higher DTC inventory, but was in line with the overall increase in sales. We expect a greater increase at the end of the second quarter, in part reflecting that we believe we were under inventoried at the equivalent point last year.

We ended the quarter with $600,000,000 in cash and cash equivalents and outstanding borrowing letters of credit of $95,000,000 compared to $464,000,000 in cash and outstanding borrowing letters of credit of $143,000,000 at dollars at the comparable point last year. Now to Brian, who will provide some additional detail on our Q1 performance.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jonathan, and good morning to everyone. As reported, 1st quarter net sales increased 14% to 687 point $8,000,000 and comp store sales increased 1%. Our direct to consumer business, which was up 42% for the quarter and new international stores were the primary drivers of reported sales growth for the quarter. For the quarter, average transactions per store increased 16%, average transaction value decreased 4%, and average unit retail decreased 10%. All metrics reflect an increasing proportion of sales coming from international.

Across all brands for the quarter, the masculine categories continue to outpace the feminine categories as male comparable store sales increased by a high single digit, while female comparable store sales decreased by a low single digit. From a merchandise classification standpoint, on a total company basis for the quarter, male graphic tees was a weaker performer, while woven shirts, knit tops and fleece were stronger performing categories. Female knit tops and sweaters were weaker performers, while dresses, woven shirts and graphic tees were stronger performing categories. For the quarter, store gross square footage was relatively flat. We closed a total of 3 stores during the quarter, including 1 Abercrombie and Fitch, 1 Abercrombie Kids and 1 Hollister store.

We opened a total of 7 new stores, including 3 U. Hollister Mall based stores and domestically 2 Abercrombie and Fitch stores, 1 Abercrombie Kids store and 1 Hollister store. We ended the quarter with a total of 1100 stores, 3 41 Abercrombie and Fitch, 205 Abercrombie Kids, 507 Hollister and 16 Gilly Hicks domestically and 6 Abercrombie and Fitch, 4 Abercrombie Kids and 21 Hollister Stores internationally. For fiscal 2010, we now expect pre opening rent expense to be slightly lower than the $35,400,000 incurred during fiscal 2,009. This concludes our prepared comments section of the call.

We are now available to take your questions. Please limit yourself to one question so that we can speak with as many callers as possible. After everyone has had a chance, we will be happy to take follow-up questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, our question and answer session will be conducted electronically. And for our first question, we go to Dana Telsey with the Telsey Advisory Group.

Speaker 6

Good morning, everyone. Can you talk a little bit about Mike, how you're feeling about each of the brands progress in the product on men's and women's and pricing? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. I think that from a product point of view, men's is and has been very much on track. It's performing very well, especially men's tops and we've been on a track that's a long one and I only see that getting better. Our problem has clearly been female and within female we have had a female tops problem. I believe that we're making progress in female.

The gap is the comp gap is narrowing between men's and women's. And I believe that we're those of us who have followed our business for a while can take a look at what we're doing in that business and how we're merchandising that business and how it differs from the recent past. I urge you all to go to the stores on Saturday, take a look at the classification statements that are being made. We've spent a lot of time determining trend, getting on trend and then backing trend up with merchandise. I think you'll see more of that as we go into back to school.

You clearly won't see our back to school assortments as of Saturday,

Speaker 5

but you'll see a merchandising strategy that is

Speaker 3

very much in our DNA. A merchandising strategy that is very much in our DNA. And clearly Hollister is the brand that is the most sensitive that we believe will be most sensitive on an ongoing basis. And we think we're getting smarter about how we're pricing that product, pricing and promoting the product. And you know promotion isn't a fundamental strength of ours, but we're getting much, much smarter in Hollister in terms of what we promote, how we promote it, where we promote it.

You will see continued promotion in Hollister because that's a way of life, but you will see less promotion and you can already see that in Abercrombie and Fitch and Abercrombie. Thanks, Dana.

Speaker 1

And we go next to Brian Tunic with JPMorgan.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Brian.

Speaker 8

Just a little more clarity on some

Speaker 7

of the international comments. You gave us the number of Abercrombie flagships you expect over the next 2 years. Can you maybe do the same for Hollister or maybe talk about the total number of Hollister's you see potentially internationally? And then the second question is, are we still on track for $200,000,000 in revenues between the U. K.

Ginza and Milan stores and anything you've learned from the Ginza opening? Thanks so much.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Brian. Just to take those three components separately. The AMS flagship number of 15, that's the flagships we're currently looking at. We're not necessarily saying we're going to commit to all of those, but they're the ones that we currently have where we're actively looking, we're reviewing locations, some of them are at different stages than others. But they are ones that we have the potential we think to do in the next between now and 2012.

In terms of the number of Hollister's, we haven't at this point spoken to anything beyond 2010. We've updated the number to approximately 25 for this year. And clearly, we've been speaking to the fact that we'd like to accelerate that in 2011 beyond, and we are working hard to add additional resources there and to get people on the ground researching all the real estate opportunities with the caveat that, as Mike spoke to earlier on, we're not going to sacrifice the financials of those deals just to get to a higher number of store openings. In terms of the overall aggregate volumes of the flagships, we haven't updated that number. We probably will at some point in the future.

So, certainly, there's anything to add on that at this point. And In terms of the question of anything learned from Ginza, can you just be a little more specific on that?

Speaker 7

Yes. Obviously, there was some noise about the fits or sort of the marketing efforts versus the customer base. So I was just curious, was there any surprise there? I know you said you had a record opening in the beginning, but it's been a couple of months now. Just anything you could add about how Ginza is tracking?

Speaker 3

Ginza is tracking very well. As we say, we virtually sell the same thing around the world. We're selling an awful lot of Fierce in that store regardless of what the noise was.

Speaker 5

All

Speaker 1

We go next to Barbara Weitkoff with Jessup and Lamont.

Speaker 5

Can you talk really about how you're approaching new store opening criteria in the U. S. For A and F and kids? And presumably, these will be offset by some store closings at the end

Speaker 9

of the year. Could you talk about new projections on that?

Speaker 4

Sure. Yes. Pablo, good morning. We We expect to have very, very few A and F Kids openings going forward. There are just some number of locations where we think it's appropriate.

But to your point, we're continuing to review our store closure plans and we would certainly expect that all the size of the footprint of both brands in terms of store count would be reducing rather than staying flat or increasing. It's just the magnitude of the number of stores that we're going to close, which I think is yet to be fully determined. But as we mentioned, we expect to have a much clearer view on that by the end of the Q2. But we'll likely over time continue to be the occasional A and F and kids opening if we see an appropriate opportunity.

Speaker 1

And we go next to Richard Jaffe with Stifel Nicolaus.

Speaker 5

Just a follow-up on the domestic closing plan and the decline in occupancy expense and wondering what we should anticipate in terms of store closings both this year and next year and how we should anticipate the occupancy expense to trend?

Speaker 4

Good morning, Richard. I guess in terms of closings, first of all, any closings we make for this year are going to be heavily skewed right towards the end of the year given when our leases generally expire. So there's going to be a pretty limited impact in 20 10. And then the 10. And then the impact in 2011 will clearly be a function of the number of stores that we end up closing.

We've spoken in the past to the number of natural expirations we have between now and the end of 2012. So in terms of occupancy, that's clearly got be a significant driver of that in terms of percentage of sales. Domestic productivity is clearly another significant component to that. So I think at this point, it's hard for us to give terribly specific guidance about 20 11.

Speaker 5

Any pushback on store closings or any support on the other hand from landlords?

Speaker 4

I think it's probably premature for us to comment on that. We are working through a process and I think when we're more complete with that process, we will speak to where we are.

Speaker 10

Thank

Speaker 1

you. We go next to Michelle Clark with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 11

Thank you and good morning. Mike, it sounds like from a sourcing standpoint at the very early stages of realizing efficiencies, can you just discuss the opportunity there from a sourcing standpoint to lower costs and how much longer you think that can play out for?

Speaker 3

Sure. I've had that conversation about the fact that we are doing better in understanding the strength of our pencil by because we are category specialists. We're doing a much better job of bundling fabric, trim and make and seeing really good efficiencies from that. We are pushing for the best average unit costs that we can achieve at while maintaining our quality levels. And we have seen results.

We are facing a very serious problem in terms of increased cotton prices, which is putting more and more pressure on us to achieve these AUC reductions, but we're doing the best we can. So there is a fundamental reason for us getting better average unit costs. We probably have more headwind as we get into spring than we've had in the past, but we're still doing what we should be doing to achieve.

Speaker 11

And Mike, the opportunity on vendor consolidation putting more in the hands of your top suppliers, still opportunity there?

Speaker 3

Absolutely. That is going on. We see an opportunity to do a little more conversation about being with vertical factories who can service us well. So there is work to be done on that part of the business.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 1

And we go next to Jeff Kleinfelter with Piper Jaffray.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you.

Speaker 12

Hi, guys. Wanted to just first, Jonathan, could you just repeat what you said about the gross margin going into Q2, what you expected? I just missed what you said. And then my question is really on Hollister. I understand e commerce has been tracking obviously much better than the absolute comp the last several months.

Between that and what you're seeing in your international stores, what are you learning about the brand online internationally that you might be able to cycle back into the stores to improve productivity?

Speaker 4

Just on the gross margin point, Jeff, what we said was that we would expect some further gross margin erosion in the second quarter. And then your question was about Hollister.

Speaker 3

Yes, about Hollister and how it has outperformed the stores and direct to consumer and what we could learn from that. And that's a very, very interesting question. And we think that it's being driven primarily by 2 factors. 1, the breadth of the assortment on the website. We have put the Epic assortment on the website.

So the broader assortment is driving more volume and 2 levels of inventory. Both very interesting points for us in terms of how we're looking at the Hollister business. Very astute question, Jeff.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 1

We go next to

Speaker 13

would have been a little bit lower. I mean, can you shed some light on where you're increasing inventory by category if that's the case, maybe units versus costs? And how does that really impact what's possible in I mean, you said a little bit of erosion, but what are your thoughts there specifically around gross margins in 2Q? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yes. I guess, Jeff, again, on gross margin, what we're saying is we do expect some further gross margin erosion with AURs likely to be continuing to be fairly down year over year and by more than the other cost reductions and the net effect of all the other items that flow into gross margin. Margin. I think overall, as we said, inventory was somewhat higher at the end

Speaker 5

of the quarter. But if you look

Speaker 4

at it as a relationship to sales, it's not too far off. And there were some timing issues at the

Speaker 5

end of the quarter that made it a little

Speaker 4

higher than we expected. So, particularly given off what was coming off from last year, I think on a 2 year basis, we are still down 14% on a per square foot basis. So, inventory levels, I think, are overall still quite conservative. But we've clearly been speaking for a while to the fact that we're looking to be somewhat less conservative as we came into this year and as we go through. Okay.

Thanks. Good luck. Thanks, Jeff.

Speaker 1

We go next to Edward Yruma with KeyBanc.

Speaker 14

Thanks very much for taking my question.

Speaker 5

You had indicated that you're lowering the

Speaker 14

amount of new international stores that you're opening this year, given your desire not to over store. With returns in excess of 30% of 4 wall cash basis, can you talk about why you backed away from some of these locations and maybe additional scrutiny you're placing on new locations? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Jonathan and I will both talk about it. We have to protect the brand, the brands and they have to be positioned in places that are right level to support the brand. We believe that we had 30 mall locations in Germany that would be brand appropriate in terms of quality level of demographics, etcetera. And I took a visit to a mall that was number 28 on the list in Munich and it clearly didn't meet our quality requirements.

So perhaps the mall goal for Germany is 26 instead of 30. Those are the kinds of things we're going through. We want to make sure that we are positioning this brand around the world in the right quality locations because we will expand around the world, but we can't get greedy.

Speaker 4

And just to speak to the financial part of it, I think when we look at what's happening with the euro and the pound at the moment, that reinforces the need from standpoint or the importance of being very disciplined about requiring margins of 30% or greater when we're opening these new stores internationally. So we give ourselves the room to absorb some currency fluctuation of volatility. And we've spoken in the past some of the stress testing we do when we open new stores. And clearly, there will be a temptation to start opening stores with lower margins. But we think in terms of the long term health and profitability of the profitability we want to drive, we need to remain very disciplined and drive for those higher returns.

Speaker 3

And I think this gets to the point of our conversation last time about the fact that we have a lot of levers to push to get to our 15% plus operating margin. And let's just talk about what they are again for a minute. Improving domestic productivity, which includes reviewing underperforming stores, and this is very much a focus. We did open stores in the Abercrombie and Fitch chain that we shouldn't have opened. We overexpanded that chain and we're not going to do that in the future.

We can achieve international growth, which we're talking about, but at a reasonable rate. We can return and are in the process of returning gross margin to historical levels, that's 3rd. We're maintaining tight expense controls. We're achieving the Gilly Hicks roadmap goals, which by the way, Gilly Hicks had a great quarter and it's testament to that. We're taking it to international as a test.

And we now see that we can grow DTC at a faster rate. So we have a lot of levers that we can push to get to this 15 percent plus operating margin. And we don't have to be doing things in the short term that are going to take us off track for the long term. And I think that's the point of this conversation. But thank you.

Speaker 14

Thank you.

Speaker 1

We go next to Liz Dunn with Thomas Weisel.

Speaker 15

Hi, good morning. I guess my question relates to sort of the distance between the brands both on between Hollister and Abercrombie, both on style and price. How do you think about that as you move forward with some of the pricing changes?

Speaker 3

Hollister is clearly going to be highly is and is going to be highly competitive on a retail basis in the mall. And we are saying that A F is not going to be at the same level, is approximately 30% higher than Hollister. And kids is a little bit higher than Hollister. But from a promotional point of view, there will be many fewer promotions in the A and F brands. And promotions will stay at a pretty high level in Hollister because that's where we have to drive that business.

In terms of style, both all brands are classic casual American. As always, Hollister has a bias to Southern California and the Southern California lifestyle

Speaker 5

and I think that does clearly identify that brand is different

Speaker 3

from the A and F brands. Okay. Identify that brand is different from the A and F brands.

Speaker 5

So you feel comfortable that you've maintained that distance

Speaker 15

in terms of the price and with the style, a lot of these dresses, it's kind of a young look. I mean, just how do you differentiate?

Speaker 3

Well, it is we run a young business, and our customers do cluster around the ages that we target. Little Abercrombie, 12 year olds, who want to be 17, Hollister, 16 and ANF 20. And there's a lot of business around each of those age groups. Of course, it does it overlaps. But we are in total a young business.

That's what we do well. And when we get off track is when we start to think we're not.

Speaker 15

Okay, great. Thanks.

Speaker 1

And we go next to Christine Cho with Needham and Company.

Speaker 16

Thank you. Good morning. You called out that you're opening 5 outlets in the U. S. This year.

I was wondering in this environment, does it make you rethink your outlet strategy? And as you expand your footprint internationally, how do you think about outlets internationally? Thank you.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Chris.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Chris. Hi, Christine. I mean, we've never viewed outlets as being strategic. We viewed them as a way of dealing with excess inventory from our full price stores. And as of now, that continues to be our point of view.

So that the outlets we're opening are to absorb additional excess units in total in the system. There is a question about what we do in Europe for excess inventory and clearance there that doesn't sell through in the stores and we're still reviewing a number of options for that and haven't set a final course. We are concerned about opening up outlets, frankly, in Europe at a time when we're also doing a rollout of full price stores. So, we've been very cautious about doing that so far.

Speaker 6

Can you

Speaker 16

share with us the breakout of the five outlets as it's skewed towards one brand or the other?

Speaker 4

We'll follow-up with you on that, Christine.

Speaker 16

Okay, great. Thank you.

Speaker 3

This is a very sensitive question, by the way. We're very, very sensitive to this. We in fact were contemplating opening an outlet in Italy. And with our success in Italy, it came to our attention that a new hot brand would be looked at very negatively by having an outlet in that country. Our purpose was only to clear old inventory, but we stopped.

We're being very disciplined about our use of outlets.

Speaker 1

We'll take our next question from Adrienne Tennant with FBR Capital Markets.

Speaker 17

Good morning. My first is really a comment about the spring inventory. The spring seasonal looks great. And I know at the beginning of February you had to ship out some goods. So really it's did you feel that you were a little bit sort of at risk in terms of not having sufficient seasonal?

And are you at the balance that you want? And then really quickly for Jonathan, just on the overhead for international, how should we think about the 30% 4 well? How much should we shave off for the overhead? And do you need to make further investments in the international investment base? Or can you just leverage what you have?

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Thanks for your comments. Yes, we were light of inventory because I did send a lot of it to outlet because we didn't want to sell it in regular stores and we've been pushing very hard to get into statements. I think they're getting better. And again, I hate to say this, but go into the stores on Saturday. I think you're going to like what you see in women's.

Speaker 17

Yes, it's been consistently improving. So good luck. Good job there.

Speaker 4

Hi, Adrian. On the second part of the question, we spoke on the last call about the flow through rate of on incremental international sales being about 20% flowing through to operating income for the year. We haven't specifically updated that, but clearly that was anticipating the full margins would be in the range that we're seeing north of 30%. Over time, we think that the MG and A or the fixed cost component of that can decline as we start to leverage DC costs and some of the other pre opening store specific costs and new country costs that are baked in at the moment. There are some additional investments we need to make as we roll out.

But as we spoke with the past, what we've been trying to do is to hold our overall home office infrastructure pretty much close to its current level going back a few quarters and fund additional international investments through offsetting efficiencies. And for the most part today, we've been, I think, fairly successful in doing that. But at the same time, as we've discussed earlier on, we're very interested in pulling the resources we need to behind accelerating the pace of international expansion given what we've been seeing.

Speaker 17

Okay. Keep up the great progress and good luck.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We go next to John Moores with Bank of Montreal.

Speaker 2

Thanks. Good morning. Two quick questions. One is, can you talk a little bit about the learnings, I guess, that you're seeing about the differences to the extent that there are any between the European consumer and the American consumer, particularly as it relates to the Hollister brand, learnings that you've seen? And then maybe just a brief commentary about hearing it in your words, I think would be helpful to assess the success of the gift card marketing campaign that you began about 6 months ago.

I mean, clearly, you can see it in some of the metrics, but thoughts with respect to how you plan to go forward with that and do you plan to anniversary that? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Let me take the first part, the difference between the European and the American customers. Number 1, the European customers are just buying a lot more of everything, but it is pretty much in the same proportion as we sell product in the U. S. There are some categories that are skewed and some of that skewing has to do with a little more advanced fashion. We think Europe is giving us a S.

Speaker 5

But

Speaker 3

S. But essentially, when you look at how we sell product around the world, ratio male, female, by category, it's amazingly the same. Jonathan?

Speaker 4

Hi, John. On the gift card, I think the first point to note is that the gift card was just one of a number of things we've done over the last few months rather than being the only thing. I think it's probably got us disproportionate amount of attention, perhaps in part because of the accounting consequences of it. Clearly, we thought it was accretive to likes and gross margin back in the Q4 when we did it. So, we brought it back.

We also thought it was a brand appropriate way of delivering a lower AUR and was relatively brand positive. So it's certainly something that's in our arsenal going forward and we may use again at an appropriate point. But again, it's just one of a number of different things that we can potentially deploy.

Speaker 1

And we go next to Kimberly Greenberger with Citi.

Speaker 18

Michael, you talked about the 15 percent operating margin goal and part of it is to restore your gross margins to historical levels. I'm wondering if you can look out this year and tell us when do you think you might be able to stop seeing some pressure on the gross margin and indeed start to see some of that recovery? And if you could just share with us, Jonathan, the average unit cost savings that you were able to achieve in the Q1, that would be great. Thanks.

Speaker 3

I wish I could tell you the day. What I can say, Kimberly, is that we are doing everything we can at this point to influence those levels. And the first thing is average unit cost. And as I've said, we're putting severe pressure on average unit cost. We'll see better progress this year versus last in Q3 than the 4th because we could start to anniversary better Q4 AUCs last year, but we have less pressure on the AUR 4th quarter.

So, we're doing everything we can from a cost retail perspective. I think the other part of the equation is to make sure that we're not over inventorying the organization so that we're forced to liquidate goods, which would be margin negative. I can't answer the question in terms of specific date. I can tell you that we're doing everything we know how to do to get there.

Speaker 4

Thank you, on the second part of your question, we haven't spoken specifically to the quarter, but we said in the past that we expected approximately a 10% like for like reduction in average unit cost for the whole of the spring season and that still remains what we expect.

Speaker 1

We go next to Janet Kloppenburg with JJK Research.

Speaker 19

Congratulations on good progress this quarter. Thank you, Janet. You're welcome. I wanted Mike, first a clarification on the flagships. I think you said 15 flagships in Europe by 2012.

That implies an acceleration in flagships perhaps in 2011 and 2012. Maybe you could comment on that? And also if you could comment on Gilly Hicks and if the merchandising approach to the brand remains the same or if you've shifted that approach, a younger customer, older customer, price points, categories, etcetera? And also for Jonathan, if you could address any FX pressure we should be thinking about this year given the change in the value of the euro? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Okay. I'll start with flagships. We said 15 Europe and Asia.

Speaker 19

Okay.

Speaker 3

And that is an escalation. Obviously, we couldn't feel better about our flagship performance. These are the most productive stores in the world. And there are obvious cities where they belong. We are working very hard to make these deals and to build the kinds of stores that deserve to be built in these cities.

Speaker 19

Does that imply that there could be more than 2 flagship stores opened in fiscal 'eleven? I think right now it's Paris and Madrid.

Speaker 3

What should I say?

Speaker 4

I think it's getting tight for additional 11 openings.

Speaker 3

But Janet, we're working hard.

Speaker 19

Okay, great. I spent

Speaker 3

a lot of time on that airplane recently. Okay. And there are exciting opportunities. In terms of Gilly, you heard me say that Gilly had a great quarter.

Speaker 19

Right, it did.

Speaker 3

It did. I think that we're doing a lot right with Gilly. We've focused the customer younger. She's clearly 20 years of age. We're merchandising to that.

The product is more fun. It's more colorful. And there's a style emerging for Gilly that I think is pretty thrilling. The Gilly girl is appearing in front of us and that's the most important thing. We've made strides in terms of pricing.

We are more competitive in the key categories and we have made strides in terms of how we're marketing in store and out of store. So this is something we're very proud of. Obviously, we are to take it to White City. We're going to be there with the big boys, But we think there is potential here. It's a test, but I'm excited about it.

Speaker 19

Yes. Good luck.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Dejana, on the FX component, I guess, first of all, for the Q1, we actually got a small year over year benefit from currency given where the rates ended up for the quarter. It was pretty modest. For the balance of the year, we're obviously very focused on what's happening with the currencies. We do have some hedging in place for particularly the second quarter and then to a lesser extent the back half of the year.

So we have a degree of protection in the short term, which progressively diminishes over time. So something we monitor very closely. And I think it goes back to overall, the most important thing as we roll out internationally is that we have the operating margins that are strong enough to withstand currency fluctuations. There are other things we can look at over time that there would also be ways of mitigating a long term erosion of the currencies in the countries we're going to operate in.

Speaker 19

Okay, great. I'll talk to you guys later. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Jan.

Speaker 1

We go next to Randy Konik with Jefferies and Company.

Speaker 10

Yes, thanks a lot. Just want to focus on Hollister. If you look at the hey, what's going on? If you look at the average number of transactions, you guys have seen a nice positive pickup there and then the the AU average transaction values moderating a negative trend. I mean, are you obviously, it looks like you're obviously getting more people in the doors.

You're at a point where you're getting that price elasticity of demand from the consumer. You think that you can

Speaker 5

pull off, like you said, pull off the promotions a little bit more. I mean, how do we how

Speaker 10

do you kind of see the transactions, the number of transactions versus transaction value? How are you trying to balance those levers as we go through the rest of the year?

Speaker 5

I mean, I think, Randy, you have to look

Speaker 4

at the different business the international and the domestic business is really separately on that, and clearly the dynamics in the 2 are quite different. So I think the metrics we provide are on a consolidated basis and include both parts of the business. We provide are on a consolidated basis and include both parts of the business. Maybe you could just elaborate a little bit more on your question.

Speaker 10

Well, then I guess if we think about the U. S. Business just in isolation, do you see a corresponding price elasticity demand from the consumer with your more competitive prices in the most recent couple of quarters? And how do you see that kind of playing out over the next couple of quarters, especially as the I guess the AUR compares will get where average transaction value compares will get I guess easier in the back half of the year?

Speaker 4

Okay, great.

Speaker 3

I think it's a week by week I think it's a week by week proposition, Randy, and I think we're starting to learn more of what works and what doesn't. It wouldn't be fair to say we're just on a straight curve. As I said in the beginning of the presentation, this promotion isn't in our DNA, we have we are learning what is working, what's not working. We are seeing more elasticity in what's working. And I think we'll do more of that, but it is a work in progress.

Is that fair, gentlemen?

Speaker 4

Absolutely. And we now have an 18 month period where we've done testing on pretty much everything we've done and we've seen what's worked and what hasn't worked as well. And typically any promotion we do, we hold out 20 or 30 stores and we don't do it there and we track their performance and we do various iterations of that testing. So as a result of all that, we have a much clearer view of the things that are effective and those which are not, which we can apply going forward.

Speaker 10

Is there any particular category or type of promotion you've seen or you think has been most successful for you that you can share with us?

Speaker 3

We can't really share that, but we're learning.

Speaker 1

And we go next to Paul Lejuez with Credit Suisse.

Speaker 5

Hey, thanks guys. Just a little bit more on Gilly. Is there any way you can quantify how much better of a quarter Gilly had? Maybe what did it drag on you on the EPS line Q1 this year versus last year? Also wondering if you have any thoughts of putting products into mall based Abercrombie and Fitch stores.

And then just finally, you mentioned that adjusted for selling mix and the gross margin line adjusted for selling mix AUR decline would have been greater. How is that going to look going forward? Should we expect the same thing in future quarters? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Let me just start by responding about the distribution of Geely product. You all know that what we really do is specialize in categories. We are category specialists And we have added 2 categories to our list of categories in which we specialize, bras and underwear. So we are building what I think is a really strong bra and underwear business. We have in front of us a number of options in terms of what we can do with those categories.

And I don't have to state them. We can build more stores domestically, we can build stores internationally, we could put product within our stores, we could brand that product to our own, we could brand it Gilly. There are a number of options open to us in this category and that's what makes it so compelling and so exciting that we are seeing such progress in developing that product.

Speaker 5

Now I

Speaker 3

turn it over to Jonathan.

Speaker 4

Paul, I guess on the Gilly impact on Q1, it was roughly comparable to last year for the Q1 on an operating income basis. The comp itself was a healthy positive number. We haven't yet started to break that out specifically. In terms of the selling mix impact on AUR, directionally what we've said is that the 10% AUR decline for the quarter would have been greater on a like for like basis. So that is the true comparison with that 10% like like average unit cost reduction.

And directionally, we'd probably expect a similar pattern in the Q2.

Speaker 5

Thanks guys. Good luck.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We go next to Michelle Tan with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 16

Great. Thanks. I was wondering if you guys

Speaker 20

could give us a little more color on the Hollister stores. You mentioned that the ones you opened in the U. K. Were above plan this quarter. Is there any update you can give us on where the volume is in these international Hollister's versus the U.

S? And also any sense of magnitude on how those 3 stores in the comp base are comping? Is it double digit, single digit? What kind of comps are you seeing?

Speaker 4

Hey, Michelle. I guess, firstly, on the relative performance of the U. K. Holders, we spoke on the last earnings call to the average volume of those stores of existing U. K.

Stores to our average U. S. Store and we gave, I think, a metric of 6x at that point. We haven't specifically updated that. It fluctuates a bit with currency and other factors.

And we'd also said at that point that on average, the stores we were in, at that point, were likely to be the relatively more productive stores than when we completely built out with the chain in the UK. But the relationship remains extremely positive

Speaker 5

in terms of

Speaker 4

the performance of the in terms of the performance of the U. K. Stores. We have I don't think we're at a point where we're going to break out the comp performance of those U. K.

Stores more specifically. They did each comp positively for the quarter. Frankly, if they've been flat or slightly down, we would have still been pretty happy given the incredibly strong opening each of those stores had. So the fact that they are comping positively, we think directionally is very positive sign.

Speaker 20

Okay, great. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question, we go to Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Speaker 17

Thank you. Good morning. Good morning. With the cash balance starting to build up on the balance sheet, can you just talk about your expected uses of that cash and if there is a specific cash cushion level that you'll wait for until you perhaps begin returning it to shareholders?

Speaker 3

I will turn it over to Jonathan, but I have a very strong point of view that the use of our cash is going to be to build stores and we will all see the biggest return there than anywhere. That's my bias. Now, I'll turn it over to Jonathan.

Speaker 4

Well, I think, I mean, clearly, we to echo Mike's point, we certainly believe that the best possible use of our cash today is strongest returns are there. And that's why we're particularly interested in adding additional resources and accelerating the pace of international expansion. We've always wanted to operate with a healthy cash cushion. I think there may come a point or likely will come a point when we feel we've reasonably satisfied both of those objectives and then we'll address that when we get there. But in the short run, our focus is on deploying our capital for its internal growth.

Speaker 1

We go next to Dorothy Lakelier with Karas and Company.

Speaker 8

Just wanted to ask if you could give us some update on the work you're doing on systems, particularly on the international side?

Speaker 4

Yes, Dorothy. There are a number of projects that we've been investing in fairly significantly over the last couple of years that are varying stages. We had a very significant implementation that went in last year of Oracle RMS. We have an IPOS system that is in place for our international stores and we're now retroing into the domestic stores. So, the overall infrastructure, we're very significantly through that from an international standpoint.

There is a lot of country specific work that has to take place on a country by country basis and we're working through that. But overall, I think the investment we've made and the time it's taken us to get there and the capital dollars have put us in a very position.

Speaker 5

Do you

Speaker 8

feel like you're in a good position internationally, obviously, with this acceleration that you're potentially looking for through 2012?

Speaker 4

Yes. I think we have the infrastructure is in place. There are, as I mentioned, some country specific things that we need to address country by country as we go and they're unique to each country, but the basic infrastructure is in place.

Speaker 8

So when you talked about adding additional resources, that's people getting people on the ground in order to make sure you've got what you need to get the stores open?

Speaker 4

Well, I guess additional resources in terms of, first of all, getting the real estate pipeline full and making sure we have people on the ground in the countries we're going to want to be in 18 months, 2 years, 3 years' time. So we keep that pipeline full. And then for each country, there are some local country resources we need to have in place, finance, payroll, HR, for example, which is not really IT related, but there are some country level country specific resources we need to have in place, relatively modest, frankly. But again, as I mentioned earlier, there are fairly large number of countries where we're already putting those resources in place and laying the groundwork.

Speaker 3

And I think you know how paranoid we are about putting that infrastructure in place on a country by country basis. There's a whole bunch of conversation about China right now. I'm surprised the question didn't come up, but we and

Speaker 8

Would you like to comment on it?

Speaker 3

Yes. We understand that and I think everybody on this call understands that China is going to be a huge market for our brands. But it's got to be approached in a very thoughtful, disciplined way for lots of reasons. I could put a pushcart out on the Nanjing Road and start doing business tomorrow. But that's not how we approach going into a country as I think you know.

Speaker 4

We do already have resources focused solely on China, even though we haven't yet set an opening date.

Speaker 8

Okay. So you feel you're set up then should you choose to accelerate the flagship openings in 2011?

Speaker 4

Well, yes, I did just want to come back to that point because the answer to the question earlier about where we are with earlier about where we are with regard to 11 openings was not meant to imply that we it's out of the question we could open in 2011. There are still some opportunities that we could consummate and that would be effective late in 2011 in addition to Paris and Madrid and then a larger number of opportunities in 20 12.

Speaker 8

Okay. All right, great. Thank you.

Speaker 1

And ladies and gentlemen, we do apologize, however, due to time constraints. This will end our question and answer session and this will end today's conference call. We do appreciate your participation.

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